Week Four Picks

Here are my picks for Week 4 (home team in CAPS):

RAMS over 49ers

Ravens over BILLS
Bengals over BROWNS
LIONS over Bears
CHIEFS over Giants
Steelers over VIKINGS
BUCCANEERS over Cardinals
Colts over JAGUARS
TITANS over Jets
BRONCOS over Eagles
RAIDERS over Redskins
Cowboys over CHARGERS
FALCONS over Patriots
SAINTS over Dolphins

Seahawks over TEXANS

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 35-13

Three Reasons Why the Rams Put Another Nail in 49ers Coffin

This week’s Thursday Night match-up featuring the Rams and the 49ers is proving difficult to evaluate for two major reasons.  First of all, both teams are kind of a mess right now.  The Rams are still licking their wounds after being completely destroyed in the Palace in Dallas last week. Their biggest warts are an underachieving defense, a lackluster running game, and a passing game that is perpetually stuck in neutral despite the additions of Jared Cook and Tavon Austin. Not exactly the type of team that inspires a lot of confidence. On the other side, the once mighty 49ers have been smacked in the mouth in consecutive weeks and they really haven’t fought back either time.  Adding to its woes, San Francisco had to pack up its three-ring circus and travel to St. Louis on a short week.  Even though Thursday Night football is an absolute crapshoot, it is a big advantage for the Rams to not have to travel.  However, this game should still be very tightly fought because both teams understand that they can ill afford to wake up Friday morning at 1-3.  My prediction is that the Rams will better exploit their advantages and will squeak out a close victory over the 49ers.  Here are three reasons why I think St. Louis will emerge victorious.

 

San Francisco’s injuries and absences will prove too much to overcome.

The 49ers have several key contributors listed as Questionable going into tonight’s game.  The player most likely to not play tonight is Nnamdi Asomugha, who is ailing with a knee injury that he sustained against Indianapolis.  The 49ers have already promoted cornerback Darryl Morris from the practice squad to take his place.  We can certainly debate whether playing without Asomugha is a positive or negative for the 49ers, but we can all agree that Sam Bradford and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be looking to test Morris early and often.  The bigger injury concern is related to All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis.  He has not practiced all week and it seems highly unlikely that his groin injury is going to magically improve enough for him to suit up tonight. His absence in the middle of the defense is going to leave a gaping hole that the 49ers will have to overcome on top of the fact that star pass rusher Aldon Smith is currently working on his personal problems rather than working over the St. Louis offensive line.  The 49ers could also be missing several valuable players on the offensive side of the football should Vernon Davis, Anthony Davis and Kyle Williams be unable to play.  The bottom line is that the Rams are healthier than the 49ers, which is a pretty huge advantage on a short week.

 

The San Francisco offense is a mess right now.

After a brilliant aerial display to begin the season, the 49ers offense has largely gone missing over the last two weeks.  Colin Kaepernick hasn’t completed more than 50% of his attempts since week one and the entire offense hasn’t generated more than 254 total yards in the last two games.   As a result, the 49ers begin week four as the 27^th ranked offense in the NFL and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious remedy for their offensive malaise on the horizon.  One approach they could take is to incorporate more read-option plays into the game plan, which was a big part of their success last season but has been largely absent in 2013.  However, this week might not be the best time to go this route because the Rams seem to play the 49ers very well plus they have had the benefit of watching how the Colts executed a masterful defensive game plan last week.  If the 49ers want to continue with the same offensive philosophy that they have used thus far, then they will need to get Vernon Davis into the line-up.  He is listed as questionable, but he at least practiced this week which is an improvement over the week prior.  The hope is that with Davis in the line-up the passing lanes will open up because he attracts so much defensive attention.  Either way, I just don’t think that the 49ers had enough time this week to clean up all of their offensive issues.  They might start taking steps in the right direction, but I see the St. Louis defensive line applying consistent pressure on Kaepernick, which will prevent San Francisco from completely hitting their stride.

 

St. Louis will be more efficient in the red zone.

Overall, I don’t see either team getting a lot of opportunities to score touchdowns.  Both teams have enough offensive issues right now that long, sustained drives are going to be few and far between, so I can definitely see a big special teams play or a critical turnover being the difference. In the end, I see the Rams being productive in the red zone when they get their opportunities. Currently, the Rams rank as one of the most efficient teams in the NFL at scoring touchdowns when they get inside the 20-yard line.  On the other hand, the 49ers have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns an astonishing 72% of the time in the red zone.  With Aldon Smith unavailable and Patrick Willis either out or limited by injury, I don’t see the 49ers getting better in this area.  In a close game, the Rams’ ability to score touchdowns instead of field goals will earn them a victory.

Quick Hits - Week Three

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Cincinnati 34 – Green Bay 30

This game was the craziest of week three.  The Bengals scored the first 14 points then proceeded to give up 30 consecutive points before ending the game on a 20-0 run to nip the Packers at the end.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Cincinnati is only the second team in history to have a lead of at least 14-0, give up 30 or more unanswered points, then win anyway.  This outcome speaks favorably to the resilience and grit of the Cincinnati Bengals.  When the score was 30-14 late in the third quarter, they could have easily resigned themselves to losing the game, but instead they completely turned the tables on Green Bay.  This game should prove instrumental in their success down the road because they know they are a capable of winning even when the deck is stacked against them. 

Dallas 31 – St. Louis 7

Going into the season, there were some experts who considered the Rams a trendy pick to make some noise in the NFC.  Unfortunately, after getting blitzed in the first half last week and then getting completely destroyed by the Cowboys this week, the Rams will have to go back to the drawing board to figure out how to play competitive football.  St. Louis was outclassed in nearly every category by the NFC East-leading Cowboys.  Their offense couldn’t move the football consistently due to only converting one out of 14 third down opportunities and a stifling Dallas defense that sacked Sam Bradford six times and allowed only 3.5 yards per play.  Their defense didn’t perform any better as they allowed DeMarco Murray to post his first 100-yard rushing performance since September 5, 2012.  I’m sure that Dallas fans would love to figure out a way to play the Rams every week because Murray seems to run wild when he plays them. 

Tennessee 20 – San Diego 17

Could this be the game that Jake Locker takes the next step to becoming a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL?  After two game manager performances to start the season, Locker put the Titans on his back with the third best passing performance of his young career, including a game-winning 34-yard strike to Justin Hunter that culminated a 94-yard drive.  The great ending comes on the heels of the 99-yard drive that he led last week against Houston.  Locker has all of the physical tools to be successful, but the Titans were still going to win in spite of him not because of him.  Sunday provided one of those signature moments that could inspire greater confidence in the third-year pro from teammates, coaches, and fans. 

Cleveland 31 – Minnesota 27

Is there a bigger disaster in the NFL than the Minnesota Vikings?  Their number one draft pick quarterback has more question marks about him than Jim Carrey as the Riddler.  Through three games, he has completed less than 60% of his attempts and has turned the ball over seven times.  The only thing that’s keeping him the starter is the fact that Matt Cassel’s corpse is the back-up.  Their best offensive weapon, Adrian Peterson, has largely been irrelevant despite the fact that his overall numbers are respectable.  However, since the 78-yard touchdown run on his first carry of the season, Peterson is averaging less than three yards per carry.  The biggest slap in the face is that they allowed the Cleveland Browns, with a third string quarterback leading the way, to beat them on their home turf.  It should have been an easy win for the Vikings since the Browns were so sore from waving the white flag after the Trent Richardson trade.  Nevertheless, this is another example of why we play the game on the field and not on paper.  The challenge for the Vikings is to figure out how to become the sixth team in NFL history to make the playoffs after starting a season 0-3. 

New England 23 – Tampa Bay 3

My unsolicited advice for Greg Schiano is to get his real estate agent on the horn ASAP because he won’t be needing that lovely Tampa area home much longer.  Somehow, Schiano has leapfrogged Ron Rivera as the NFL head coach with the hottest seat.  The Bucs have lost eight of their last nine games.  Under Schiano’s watch, their starting quarterback has regressed to currently being the lowest rated passer in the NFL.  Making matters worse, the same horrible quarterback is rumored to be preparing a trade request prior to the trading deadline.  I don’t think Tampa will have to put in any extra phone lines to handle the call volume from general managers trying to get their hands on Freeman.  Let’s not forget that there have been reports from unnamed sources that players are grumbling about Schiano’s disciplinarian regime.  Once you start adding up all of the little fires, it all amounts to a forthcoming pink slip unless the Bucs get on a hot streak.  Maybe Schiano should call up Rivera to see about how to get that job-saving winning streak started sooner rather than later.

New Orleans 31 – Arizona 7

So much for Carson Palmer being the savior for the Arizona Cardinals.  Since a promising start to the season, Palmer has completed only 55% of his attempts over the last two weeks.  Frankly, Palmer looks a lot more like John Skelton than Kurt Warner.  Maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt because Larry Fitzgerald has been slowed with a hamstring injury over the last two games, but I’m more inclined to believe that Palmer is who he is.  We are not going to suddenly see a late career spike in performance like we saw with Warner.  Fans in the desert are slowly starting to realize that their favorite team has neither a short-term nor a long-term quarterback solution on its roster.

Detroit 27 – Washington 20

It’s tough to start the season 0-3, but the Redskins have to be encouraged that things are starting to look up.  For the first time in 2013, the RGIII that was on the field actually looked like a close approximation of the RGIII that took the NFL by storm last season.  He didn’t make every throw with authority but he looks like he trusts his right leg a lot more.  Unfortunately, his best throw of the season – an apparent 57-yard touchdown to Aldrick Robinson – was overturned when the replay showed the Robinson had not maintained control all the way to the ground.  In addition to looking better throwing the football, RGIII also used his legs a bit more including a nice 21-yard scramble.  However, this positive play also had a negative result due to RGIII losing the ball as he dived forward.  Even though he was giving himself up, the officials ruled it a fumble because a quarterback can only give himself up by sliding feet-first.  These two plays were instrumental in allowing the Lions to win in our nation’s capital for the first time in franchise history as well as snap a 21-game road losing streak to the Redskins. 

Carolina 38 – New York Giants 0

The Giants should be embarrassed by this performance.  This is the kind of performance that gets people fired.  The Giants’ stat sheet looked like a train wreck mixed with a murder scene.  They cobbled together a mere 150 yards of total offense and allowed the Panthers to rack up over 400 yards of offense.  The Carolina defense left Eli Manning looking like a piñata after a kid’s birthday.  Meanwhile, Cam Newton was able to pull out his Superman celebration on a regular basis thanks to a virtuoso performance that harkened back to his rookie season.  It all added up to the most lopsided victory in Carolina franchise history as well as the worst defeat of the Tom Coughlin era.  One has to wonder if this horrific loss will finally lead to the Giants’ front office severing ties with their head coach. 

Baltimore 30 – Houston 9

The Texans shaky start to 2013 finally caught up to them in Baltimore.  There was no last minute Houdini escape to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat.  The Ravens made sure of this by putting together a throwback defensive performance as a way to honor Ray Lewis on the day he was inducted into the Baltimore Ring of Honor.  The defense never allowed Matt Schaub to get comfortable and they stymied the two-headed running game of the Texans.  Nevertheless, it took a Daryl Smith interception return for a touchdown and a Tandon Doss punt return touchdown for the Ravens to put Houston away.  In my opinion, both of these teams are flawed.  It seems pretty obvious that the reason the Ravens have taken a step back is because of a lot of new talent on defense still trying to coalesce and a lack of playmakers on offense.  It is a bigger mystery as to why the Texans are struggling so mightily.  On paper, they have all of the pieces necessary to be the best team in the AFC, but they are far from living up to expectations.  It will be interesting to see how they match up with the best team in the NFL in week four.

Miami 27 – Atlanta 23

The biggest surprise of all the 3-0 teams is the Miami Dolphins.  They have won twice on the road and have beaten two playoff teams from a year ago.  However, it is a mystery as to how the Dolphins have gotten to where they are.  They are the 22nd ranked defense and the 26th ranked offense.  In other words, they are not doing anything especially well.  The defense dominated the Browns in the opener, but it is less clear how they were able to beat the Colts and the Falcons.  With both victories coming by four points, it seems like both wins were the result of Miami making one or two plays more than the opponent.  Unless Miami significantly improves in some tangible area, I believe they will regress back to the .500 team that I thought they would be at the beginning of the year.

New York Jets 27 – Buffalo 20

After three weeks, it's pretty clear that the Jets are not as terrible as they were predicted to be this season.  The victory over Buffalo provides the exact recipe that they should follow to win a lot more games than expected.  First of all, they need to keep playing solid defense.  They frustrated E.J. Manuel all day long because they were either sacking him or collapsing the pocket.  Secondly, they need to run the football successfully.  If they can consistently do both of these things then they will be to survive the peaks and valleys of Geno Smith's rookie season.  He was mostly good Geno against the Bills after playing a truly atrocious game against the Patriots in week two.  With New England not as strong as they have been in the past and Miami a prime candidate to regress as the season continues, the Jets have a chance to make a little noise in the AFC East.

Indianapolis 27 – San Francisco 7

The 49ers are a mess right now.  Colin Kaepernick has had the two worst weeks of his career in back-to-back games.  Their head coach and star running back are arguing on the sidelines.  Their defense, which has been the standard bearer for the entire Harbaugh era, is starting to show signs of weakness.  Now the defense will have to survive for an undetermined amount of time without Aldon Smith and they might be missing Patrick Willis for the Thursday Night game with St. Louis.  This is the first true adversity that Harbaugh has faced since becoming the head coach, so it will be interesting to see how they perform on short rest against the Rams.  It is my opinion that the loser of this match-up will have zero chance of winning the division and will be one more loss away from being on life support for a wild card playoff spot.

Chicago 40 – Pittsburgh 23

The bad news for the great fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers is that the 2013 edition is terrible.  They are 28th in total offense, which includes being an unheard of 31st in rushing yards per game.  Their defense is still okay, but they are not going to remind anyone of the Steel Curtain.  Currently, they are allowing over 25 points per game, which is like playing with one arm tied behind your back when you consider the offense that they are dealing with.  The good news is that the last time they were this bad they were able to draft Ben Roethlisberger in the following draft.  Three Super Bowl appearances and two titles later, I would say that it hasn't turned out half bad.  It remains to be seen if they can find another franchise altering talent in the 2014 draft, but at least the fans can hope that the trip through the valley of mediocrity is a short one.

Denver 37 – Oakland 21

This just in from the Obvious Statements Department: the Denver Broncos are pretty darn good.  The number one overall offense and the number one scoring offense is covering for a so-so defense, but reinforcements in the form of Von Miller are on the way soon.  It's too early to tell if they are going to be able to keep it up for 16 weeks like the 2007 New England Patriots, but there doesn't seem to be any quality defense on their schedule until they host Kansas City in Week 11.  They might get slowed down by Dallas or Indianapolis in the meantime, but I don't think either team has the defensive talent to completely stop Peyton Manning.  Regardless, the Broncos are the favorites in the AFC by a wide margin.

Week Three - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

Three Facts

1. The Seahawks have the look of an extremely focused team.

On Sunday, the Hawks played their 583^rd regular season game in franchise history and they had never been favored by more points than they were against Jacksonville.  In fact, the point spread was among the 10 largest in the NFL in the past 40 years.  In a league driven by the “any given Sunday” ethos, it would not have been surprising to see the Hawks struggle to beat the Jaguars much less cover a nearly three touchdown point spread.  However, Seattle showed that it was focused on the game at hand and would not look past the Jags.  Although the offense experienced an initial three-and-out, they would score 24 points in the first half, which included a fabulous 75-yard drive in only 34 seconds to close out the opening two quarters.  Meanwhile, the defense was flat-out dominating as they held the Jags to only 50 yards and intercepted Chad Henne on Jacksonville’s deepest penetration into Seattle territory.  The Hawks extended their lead to 31-0 early in the third quarter before a Russell Wilson interception practically gift-wrapped the first Jacksonville touchdown.  Seattle’s performance was a textbook example of how to suffocate an inferior opponent and not give them any hope of springing an upset. 

2. Seattle is improving in their red zone efficiency.

The Hawks started out the season by scoring zero touchdowns in three red zone opportunities against the Carolina Panthers. They followed up that horrible start by hitting pay dirt on three of the six chances they had against the 49ers.  Another mediocre to poor effort in the red zone against the lowly Jaguars would have been cause for full-blown panic.  However, the Hawks took care of business by scoring touchdowns on four out of five chances inside the 20-yard line.  It was no surprise that Seattle’s best red zone performance came in a game where the tight end position actually showed up somewhere else than just the game program.  In addition, the Hawks are now trending up in the red zone efficiency category, which is very promising as they head out for back-to-back road games in Houston and Indianapolis.  As they showed in Carolina, this team is good enough on both sides of the ball to win games without scoring a lot of touchdowns, but they become downright scary when they can put the ball into the end zone at the rate they showed on Sunday.

3. The Hawks have the best depth in the NFL.

It is the biggest no-brainer in professional football that the Seahawks have the deepest roster in the NFL.  After Russell Wilson left the game in the third quarter, the Hawks’ back-ups outscored the Jacksonville starters 14-10.  Without Percy Harvin, the Seattle receiving corps had 21 receptions for 331 yards.  They are so talented at running back that an explosive guy like Christine Michael had to wait until the third game of the season to get his first carries.  The depth shows up in an even bigger way on defense.  When Bruce Irvin rejoins the team after week four, Seattle will be able to send waves of pass rushers at opposing offenses like few teams in the NFL can.  They were missing one of their starting linebackers, Malcolm Smith, on Sunday but there was no noticeable drop-off.  Let’s not forget how little impact was felt from Brandon Browner missing the first two weeks of the season.  It is an amazing accomplishment the way that John Schneider and Peter Carroll have built the roster in their four years running the team. 

Three Questions

1. Has Seattle solved their issue with penalties?

After a ridiculous number of penalties in the first two weeks, the Hawks played a much cleaner game on Sunday with only four yellow flags for 24 yards.  The effect of so few penalties was that they were very rarely behind the chains, which is something that Russell Wilson mentioned after the game as a major reason they were able to get rolling on offense.  In fact, the offense had only one penalty assessed against them for the entire game, which was a 180 degree change from the week before when it looked like the offensive line was desperately trying to fill up their “get nine penalties earn the 10^th one free” punch cards.  Seattle will have to take this mistake-free approach on the road because it will be difficult to beat Houston or Indy without it.

2. Can the tight ends build on their best game of 2013?

The Seattle tight ends were basically non-existent for the first two games.  In my opinion, the lack of production from this position was one of the reasons for Wilson’s struggles against the 49ers and the team’s relatively inefficient offense over the first two weeks.  However, Zach Miller, Luke Willson and Kellen Davis broke through in a big way with nine receptions on 10 targets, 112 yards, and two touchdowns.  Willson was a major contributor in the middle of the field, while Miller made his presence felt with two red zone touchdown catches.  The Seattle coaching staff needs to continue to find ways to get the tight ends involved early and often because it will certainly help move the chains and provide a big weapon inside the 20 yard line.

3. How did Clinton McDonald not make the team out of training camp?

When McDonald was cut at the end of training camp, I will have to admit that it was a move that barely registered in my mind.  However, since being resigned prior to the San Francisco game, I’ve been asking myself how he didn’t make the team to begin with.  He went from working out in Arkansas to signing a contract to chasing Colin Kaepernick around Century Link Field in the span of 72 hours or so.  After an impressive 2013 debut, McDonald was credited with 1.5 sacks this past Sunday. With Jesse Williams out for the season and Jordan Hill still trying to make it back from an injury, McDonald has been given a prime opportunity to forge a role as Brandon Mebane’s back-up and a disruptive presence in the middle of the defensive line. 

Three Worries

1. Seattle is a mediocre 15th in the NFL in third down conversion rate.

It might be a nit, but Seattle has to improve on converting third down opportunities.  Currently, they are converting less than 40% of their opportunities, which is keeping their offense from performing at its highest level.  They don't have to be the best team in the league, but it would be nice if they could get closer to the rate that they achieved over the last 10 games last year, including the playoffs, when they were converting nearly 46% of their third down situations.

2. The Hawks are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry through three games.

Right now, the Seattle running game is definitely more about quantity versus quality.  The Hawks lead the league in rushing attempts and they are a respectful 7th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but we have seen a lot of three yards and a cloud of dust.  Last season, Marshawn Lynch averaged five yards per carry and had 10 games with 100-plus yards, but he has yet to clear the century mark in 2013 and his yards per carry average is down over 1.5 yards.  Wilson has shown that he can win games with his arm, but this team is so much more dangerous when the running game is clicking on all cylinders.

3. In Leon Washington’s absence, the Hawks are in the bottom half of the league in kickoff return average.
In Washington's three seasons in Seattle, the team finished in the top 10 every season in yards per kickoff return.  Last season, they were the number two team in the NFL kickoff return average.  This year, the team is ranked 17th and seems to lack a legitimate threat that can take the football the distance.  Jermaine Kearse generated some buzz in the preseason but it has not carried over to the regular season.  Maybe this is an area that Christine Michael can contribute since the opportunities to get carries in the running game seem to be limited.

Another reason to not like Jim Harbaugh

In an attempt at full disclosure, I'm a diehard Seahawks fan.  Everything that I'm about to write will be colored by my lifelong devotion to my hometown team.  Nevertheless, I think most people will agree with my thoughts unless they live, or have lived, in the greater Bay Area.  

Jim Harbaugh is a jerk.  We are all well aware of his over the top intensity, general surliness, and the annoying way that he wears his glasses at the tip of his nose like a stereotypical librarian.  His propensity for going ballistic on the sidelines at the first hint of anything going against his team reminds me of a toddler throwing a tantrum on the kitchen floor when his mom won't give him a third lollipop.  He's more hated in Detroit than Matt Millen thanks to the back slap heard around the world.  He's known in Seattle as simply Douchebag Harbaugh.  Hell, I don't think his own brother even likes him.  People have been blowing smoke up his butt for so long that he truly believes that he is the smartest football coach to ever prowl a college or NFL sideline.  When he is your head coach, you grudgingly support him despite all of the condescension, curt answers, and disgusting antics.  However, the minute that he switches to an opposing team he becomes Public Enemy #1.  

In my opinion, it's okay if he wants to play the villain.  I think the fact that he really doesn't like Pete Carroll adds a distinctive layer of animosity that most NFL rivalries lack.  However, Harbaugh took it too far when he began to pontificate about the Seahawks' recent problems with performance enhancing drug related suspensions.  Back in June, he told reporters that he had definitely noticed the PEDs issues up in Seattle.  He went on to say the following: "Play by the rules, and you will always be above reproach.  Especially when you're good, because you don't want people to come back and say they're winning because they're cheating. ... So we want to be above reproach in everything and do everything by the rules. Because if you cheat to win, then you've already lost, according to Bo Schembechler. And Bo Schembechler is about next to the word of God as you can get in my mind. It's not the word of God, but it's close."  With these comments, Harbaugh was attempting to separate the way that the 49ers do business from the way that the Seahawks operate.  It was clear from his comments that he intended to have his team on a higher moral ground.  No cheating and playing by the rules was how things were going to get done in the Bay Area.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Aldon Smith.  On top of an earlier alcohol-related issue in Miami and a pending lawsuit for allegedly shooting a party guest, Smith was arrested early Friday morning on suspicion of DUI.  Smith was involved in a single-car accident that left him wedged up against a tree with his foot still pressed down on the accelerator causing the car's tires to burn rubber.  Smith was released on bail and was promptly on the practice field with his teammates by the afternoon.  Harbaugh's comments to the media indicated that Smith would play on Sunday and that any consequences would be handed down by the NFL and not the 49ers.  Hold on a bloody second!  I thought that Harbaugh's 49ers were going to above reproach.  I guess Harbaugh was only referring to the use of PEDs rather than putting the community in danger by driving under the influence of drugs and alcohol.  This moment was his opportunity to put his foot down in the name of "playing by the rules" and suspend Smith for making a poor decision.  Unfortunately, Harbaugh is a phony and an opportunist, which means that benching one of his best players would be a little too inconvenient.  How can we expect him to continue being a genius of a coach if he suspends his players for any minor indiscretion that they commit?  It is a lot easier to plug Smith into the line-up and pass the buck to Commissioner Roger Goodell.  I didn't think that I could find more reasons to not like Harbaugh, but he just keeps upping the ante.  If he wants to be like a 1,000 other coaches that have turned a blind eye to star players misbehaving for the benefit of their won-loss records, then so be it but don't throw stones at others when apparently you have a sinner or two on  your own team.

Week Three Picks

Here are my picks for Week 3 (home team in CAPS):

Chiefs over EAGLES

BENGALS over Packers
COWBOYS over Rams
TITANS over Chargers
VIKINGS over Browns
PATRIOTS over Buccaneers
SAINTS over Cardinals
Lions over REDSKINS
Giants over PANTHERS
Texans over RAVENS
DOLPHINS over Falcons
Bills over JETS
49ERS over Colts
Bears over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS over Jaguars
BRONCOS over Raiders

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 24-8

Three Reasons Why Andy Reid Will Win In His Return to Philly

Most of the media attention for this week’s Thursday Night match-up between the Eagles and the Chiefs has been centered on Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia to face his former team and his wunderkind replacement.  While this angle will no doubt get the national pundits frothy at the mouth, I prefer to focus my analysis on the two teams, who will actually be battling each other on the field.  On one side, we have the 1-1 Eagles, who have been the talk of the NFL due to their supposedly hyper speed offense and the mystery of what Chip Kelly still has in his bag of tricks for the rest of the league.  They reeled off an incredible 53 plays in the first half of their opening game, thanks largely to the ineptitude of their opponent, but have seemed more than a few notches below revolutionary since.  On the other side, you have the 2-0 Chiefs, who were the league’s worst team a year ago, but were a trendy pick to at least go from worst to a Wild Card spot in the span of one calendar year.  In my opinion, these teams are about as diametrically opposed as any two teams in the NFL.  The Eagles have shown that they possess a high performance offense, but their defense has been a disaster ever since their extremely successful first half against Washington.  The Chiefs’ offense has been much more mundane led by the grand poobah of game management, Alex Smith, but their defense has shown signs that they could be one of the better units in the league.  My belief is that Kansas City will impose their style of play on this game, which will have two major impacts: (1) limiting the offensive possessions for the Eagles and (2) keeping Philly’s suspect defense on the field as much as possible.  Here are three reasons why I think the Chiefs will emerge victorious on Thursday night.

 

The Philadelphia defense is bad, really bad.

The Eagles defense looked like a cross between the ’85 Bears and ’00 Ravens during the first half of their game against Washington.  They limited the RGIII-led offense to less than 70 yards of total offense, caused two turnovers, forced three punts, and even had a safety.  Their domination fueled the amount of offensive plays they ran in the first half and set them up with a 26-7 lead as they headed into the locker room.  Since emerging for the second half at FedEx Field, the Philly defense has lived up to all of the low expectations that people had for it before the season started. In the subsequent six quarters, they have allowed nearly 700 yards passing, five touchdowns, 8.1 yards per attempt, and a 72% completion percentage.  It is unlikely that the conservative Chiefs passing game, which is currently 27^th ranked in the NFL, will be able to exploit the Philly secondary like their previous opponents, but they don’t need to be the second coming of Air Coryell to beat the Eagles.  They will win because they will be able to keep drives alive by being efficient on third down and methodically slice and dice the horrible Philly defense.  As a result, the Chiefs will own the time of possession category and will push Philly past its breaking point in the second half. 

 

The Chiefs will not beat themselves.

As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles beat the Redskins because the Skins turned the ball essentially three times in the first half and couldn’t sustain any drive until the middle of the third quarter.  The Chiefs will not be so accommodating.  Kansas City is one of two teams in the league that has not turned the ball over so far.  If they continue to protect the football, they will keep Philly’s explosive offense off the field and give themselves more chances to exploit the vulnerable Eagles defense. With Alex Smith at the helm, I believe that KC has the perfect quarterback to limit its mistakes.  In addition to not giving the football away, the Chiefs will be able to build on the clinically efficient game plan that the San Diego Chargers employed against Philadelphia.  The Bolts possessed the football over two-thirds of the game because the Eagles defense could not get them off the field on third down.  San Diego converted 10 out of 15 third down opportunities, which is something that I’m sure the Chiefs have focused on in their game film review and game planning.  Finally, the Chiefs will continue to do a good job of limiting the number and impact of penalties.  This will keep them ahead of the chains and present manageable down and distance situations for Alex Smith and offense.  Without Kansas City’s help, the Eagles will not be able to run the number of plays that they would like to run.

 

Philly will struggle against the Chiefs defense.

It is not a secret that Chip Kelly wants to run the football first and foremost.  In his six seasons at Oregon, Kelly’s offense never finished worse than 6^th in the nation in rushing, while never finishing better than 48^th in passing.  His U of O offenses were lauded for their scheme, speed, and scoring prowess, which was all fueled by an elite rushing attack.  Make no mistake, Kelly wants to implement the same kind of offense in the NFL.  The Eagles week one victory over Washington is the blueprint for the ideal game result for Kelly: efficient quarterback play and a dominating run game (49 carries for 263 yards).  The Eagles played very differently in week two with Michael Vick throwing for over 400 yards and the offense only producing 100 yards on the ground.  The common denominator is that Vick got hit a lot in both games.  Kelly does not like to use a lot of additional protection schemes beyond his five offensive linemen, which leads to a lot of big plays but might also get Vick killed in the process.  The Chiefs will slow down the Eagles by shutting down the run early and making Vick pay when he drops back to pass.  In two games, the Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times and have only allowed an average of 54 yards rushing.  The Eagles are too good on offense to be completely shut down, but they will be frustrated by a Kansas City defense that has clearly started the 2013 season on a hot streak.

Quick Hits - Week Two

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Atlanta 31 – St. Louis 24

The Falcons deserve a lot of credit for overcoming some significant adversity and earning this gritty victory.  Atlanta lost five key contributors by halftime, including their starting running back, their best linebacker, their best corner, and their best pass rusher.  Nevertheless, Matt Ryan showed why he is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the business despite getting banged around like a bumper car (two sacks, eight QB hits).  Ryan threw at least two TD passes for the 41^st time in his career and stood tall against added pressure with 209 passing yards and only four incompletions when St. Louis sent at least five pass rushers.  With the victory, the Falcons have now won 13 straight games following a loss.

Buffalo 24 – Carolina 23

Congratulations to Coach Ron Rivera on officially having the hottest seat in the NFL coaching ranks.  Despite slow starts in 2011 and 2012, Rivera was able to save his job by going 9-7 down the stretch, including an impressive four consecutive victories to end last season.  Although no one in the Carolina organization has commented on Rivera’s job security, there was an implicit understanding among NFL observers that he would be unable to survive another slow start.  Unfortunately, the Panthers have started 0-2 in 2013 even though they led both games in the fourth quarter.  The inability to close out teams in the fourth quarter and win close games has been the hallmark of Rivera’s tenure in Charlotte.  The team has lost 10 games when they were leading or tied in the fourth quarter and Rivera’s record in close games (decided by eight points or less) is a frighteningly bad 6-15.  If he cannot get the ship turned around in the next couple of weeks, you can expect the calls for his head to intensify to unheard of levels.

Chicago 31 – Minnesota 30

The Bears are the cardiac kids of the NFC.  They followed up their come from behind victory over Cincinnati in week one with another comeback win over the Vikings.  Jay Cutler has been far from perfect, but he has saved his best moments for the fourth quarter.  He has completed 76% of his attempts for 160 yards and two touchdowns in the final period.  Although he continues to rely heavily on Brandon Marshall, it is clear that Cutler has developed a nice rapport with Martellus Bennett especially in the red zone.  If this relationship continues to blossom, then the Bears will be a very tough offense to stop because there will finally be another threat in the passing game.

Green Bay 38 – Washington 20

The Redskins are in serious trouble.  They have been outscored 50-7 in the first half of their two games and they have a starting quarterback that is clearly a shell of his former self.  As pointed out by many, RGIII looks like a player that lacks the confidence in his right knee that he needs to drive the football downfield.  In addition, the Redskins coaching staff is trying to protect the knee by keeping him in the pocket, which is exactly the place on the football field that he lacks the most confidence.  The courageous decision would be to bench RGIII until he demonstrates that his knee is healthy enough for him to do all of the things he was doing in 2012.  Unfortunately, the Skins have put themselves between a rock and a hard place by starting him from week one, so they almost have to ride out the rough patch with him as their starting QB.

Miami 24 – Indianapolis 20

The small group of Miami fans that actually cares more about X’s and O’s than finding the best nightlife in South Beach must be giddy about the team’s 2-0 start.  With the Patriots looking very vulnerable at the top of the AFC East, the Dolphins are poised to mount a serious challenge to throne.  One week after a dominating defensive performance against Cleveland, the Dolphins completely stymied the Colts in the second half holding them to a mere three points.  As a result, Miami has won their initial two games for the first time since 2010.  Better yet, the Dolphins already are done with two of their road games, which already have the 100 hardcore Miami fans lathered up for an October 27^th visit to Foxboro.  Then again, the Arizona Cardinals started 2-0 last year.

Kansas City 17 – Dallas 16

The Chiefs have already matched their win total from 2012.  Two big reasons for the great start have been the team’s ability to take care of the football and an extremely efficient red zone approach.  The Chiefs have yet to the turn the ball over and they have scored on all five opportunities inside the 20-yard line, including the two chances that they had against Dallas.  Conversely, the Chiefs scored a touchdown on a league-worst 27% of their red zone drives a year ago.  There might be some that say the Chiefs got outplayed by Dallas on Sunday, but the name of the game in the NFL is to win games, which Kansas City has done flawlessly over the first eighth of the season.

San Diego 33 – Philadelphia 30

After week one, the Eagles were the talk of the NFL due to the Speedy Gonzalez offense that Chip Kelly brought with him from Oregon.  The national punditry fawned over the Eagles “revolutionary” offense, especially the number of plays they ran in the first half against Washington.  Unfortunately, not many experts pointed out how the inept Redskins offense was the biggest reason that Philly ran 53 plays in the opening half.  Fast forward to this past Sunday and it was the Chargers that turned the tables on the Eagles with their own brand of high octane football.  San Diego ran 21 more plays than University of Oregon East and generally dominated a Philly defense that most people thought would be one of the worst units in the NFL.  The only thing that slowed the Chargers down was two fumbles inside the Eagles’ 10-yard line.  This game is another reason to temper the sky high expectations for the Eagles.

Baltimore 14 – Cleveland 6

The Ravens have serious offensive issues.  Even though the Cleveland defense was supposed to be improved under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton, there is no reason that it should take almost 40 minutes of game action to score your first points when you have an elite quarterback calling the shots.  Unfortunately, the Ravens don’t have an elite quarterback calling the shots.  The first two weeks of the season are further proof that Joe Flacco still hasn’t overcome the consistency issues that have plagued him his entire career.  His supporters (enablers) will talk about injuries and inexperienced wide receivers as the cause of his most recent struggles, but at some point the excuses have to stop and a Super Bowl MVP / $100 million man has to play good football for more than 50% of a season.

Houston 30 – Tennessee 24

The comeback kids of the AFC are not inspiring much confidence with their second consecutive Houdini escape of the 2012 season.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Houston is the first team since the merger to win each of its first two games of a season on the final play of the game.  It’s great to be the answer to an interesting trivia question, but the Texans have to play better earlier in games.  They ran the ball a lot better against the Titans, but they struggled on third down and they have a concerning situation in the kicking game.  Randy Bullock, in his second year out of Texas A&M, has missed four out of five field goal attempts, which sooner or later will cost the Texans a victory.  Coach Gary Kubiak is standing by his man for the time being but he can’t wait for Bullock to be the cause of a loss before rectifying the kicking situation.

Arizona 25 – Detroit 21

The combination of terrible special teams and the inability to convert third down opportunities were the biggest reasons that the Lions are not 2-0.  They left points on the field by not being able to keep drives alive and by not be able to cash in on field goal attempts when they did get close enough to score.  David Akers missed one field goal and had another one blocked, which must have had the Detroit faithful pining for the halcyon days of Jason Hanson.  It also didn’t help that they lost Reggie Bush fairly early on or that their running game was rendered useless by the Arizona defense.  The Lions certainly look improved over last season, but they are not good enough to overcome the plethora of mistakes they made in this game.

New Orleans 16 – Tampa Bay 14

Player-coach relationships in the NFL are sometimes pretty easy to define.  As long as a team is winning, it doesn't matter if the coach is trying to reenact scenes from the Junction Boys or allows players to bring strippers into the locker room because generally speaking players will be happy.  Once the losing starts, as it has in Tampa, sources begin to come out of the woodworks with reports about certain players being unhappy.  The Bucs are 1-7 over their last eight games, which ties them with Jacksonville as the worst team over that span.  Not surprisingly, reports surfaced that quarterback Josh Freeman is unhappy and plans on requesting a trade, while newly acquired Darrelle Revis suddenly doesn't like all of the zone coverage being played on defense.  The end game is pretty simple in these circumstances: either Greg Schiano starts winning or he will be the former coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Oakland 19 – Jacksonville 9

The Raiders are slightly better than expected, but somehow the Jaguars are significantly worse.  This game represented one of their best chances to win a football game and they were essentially non-competitive throughout.  They had only amassed 129 yards before rattling off two consecutive fourth quarter drives of 50-plus yards.  Chad Henne was sacked five times and their running game generated a mere 34 yards.  Making matters worse, they lost their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew, to a knee injury that has him questionable going forward.  Their next best chance at winning a football game won't come until week 13, on the road, in Cleveland.  Gus Bradley might be wishing that they can him before too long just so he can save himself from the aggravation.

Denver 41 – New York Giants 23

In the Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know department, the Denver Broncos are an offensive juggernaut.  One week after blistering the defending champs for 49 points, they hung 34 points on the New York Giants.  Peyton Manning was merely human this week, but the Broncos have to be encouraged by the effort they received from Knowshon Moreno.  You have to feel bad for the Oakland Raiders, who are going to get absolutely embarrassed on national television by the Broncos.

Cincinnati 20 – Pittsburgh 10

Along with the Redskins, the Steelers are the other NFL team in the most trouble after two weeks.  Frankly, Pittsburgh might be in more dire straits than the Skins because they don't have the hope that Washington does about getting better as RGIII gets better.  The Steelers have a nonexistent running game, playcalling issues, and their best offensive lineman won't be donning the black and gold until the 2014 season.  They have only scored 19 points in two games and their offense does not seem to have any explosive element.  They never will admit it, but they are missing Mike Wallace.  It's unfortunate that their offense is in such disarray because they still have a playoff caliber defense.  They gave up a lot of yards to the Bengals but they made them work for every inch (3.7 yards per carry and 20 incompletions by Andy Dalton).  If the offense had possessed the football a little more, the numbers would have looked very different for the defense.

3 Facts, 3 Questions & 3 Worries About the Seahawks

Three Facts

1. The CLink is 49er kryptonite.

Century Link Field has quickly become a house of horrors for the San Francisco 49ers.  In their last two visits to Seattle, the 49ers have been completely dominated by the home team.  The biggest reason for the dominance is that the Seahawks have been able to make Colin Kaepernick look like an ordinary player instead of the transcendent talent that everyone wants to make him out to be.  Kaepernick has posted a QB rating of 47.1 and turned the ball over five times in Century Link.  He was so flummoxed Sunday night by the Seattle defense that his only recourse was to use his game-changing running ability or force the ball into tight coverage.  The end result was that Seattle intercepted three passes and prevented Kaepernick from completing a 15-plus yard pass for the first time in 12 career starts.  Conversely, Kaepernick had eight such completions in Week One versus the Green Bay Packers.  Another key to Seattle’s recent domination is that they have rendered Frank Gore and the vaunted 49ers running game to irrelevance.  Gore has averaged less than three yards per carry in the last two Seattle road games.  Based on their performance against San Francisco, the Seahawks have served notice to the entire NFC that they don’t want to see Seattle earn home field advantage through the playoffs.

2. The Hawks defense is a completely different animal at home.

On Sunday night, the defense was in a zone against San Francisco.  They made the electric 49ers offense look like Jacksonville Jaguars.  The same 49ers offense that had been averaging nearly 30 points in Kaepernick’s 12 starts could only muster a measly three points against the most amped up defense of the Pete Carroll era.  Outside of the field goal drive, the 49ers made only one other serious scoring threat, which ended on a spectacular deflection by Walter Thurmond that turned into an interception.  It is no surprise that Seattle played lights out on defense when you consider the opponent and, more importantly, the location.  During Carroll’s tenure as head coach, the Hawks have played defense much more effectively at Qwest/Century Link than on the road.  They have allowed fewer yards, caused more turnovers, and been stingier on third down when they have slept in their own beds.  Surprisingly, one of the areas that they have actually done better on the road is sacking the quarterback.  The common misperception is that Seattle uses the raucous 12^th man crowd to get after the quarterback, but they have 10 more sacks on the road in Carroll’s three-plus years with the team. 

3. The CLink is the best home field advantage going right now in the NFL.

Is there any stadium more intimidating for opposing teams than the CLink?  The much talked about 12^th Man lived up to its reputation on Sunday night by showing up in record numbers and setting a Guinness World Record for the loudest sports crowd in the process.  The noise can be so disruptive that the 49ers eschewed verbal play calls for the use of hand signals and silent counts.  The din certainly helped the Seahawks defense get off the ball quicker and contributed to a general lack of precision by the San Francisco offense, including one possession that included delay of game and false start penalties.  After destroying the 49ers, the Hawks haven’t lost at home since December 24, 2011.  With their toughest home game out of the way, it will be an extreme disappointment if Seattle doesn’t post a second consecutive 8-0 campaign at Century Link.  If this happens, and if the Hawks can survive a brutal road schedule with a 5-3 record, Seattle will own home field advantage in the NFC, which is a nightmare that the rest of the conference does not want to see come to fruition.

Three Questions

1. Should we be concerned with the Seahawks’ offensive inefficiency?

Although the Seahawks have won their first two games, they have not been the models of offensive efficiency.  Two big indicators of efficiency are a team's red zone conversion rate and third down conversion rate.  Show me a team that scores a high percentage of touchdowns in the red zone and keeps drives alive with third down conversions and I will show you a successful team.  The Seahawks are not performing at a high level in either area.  They definitely showed improvement in the red zone on Sunday night, but their third down conversion rate has them in the middle of the pack.  In the last half of the 2012 season, the Hawks were deadly in the scoring zone and very efficient on third down, which is a formula that they have yet to discover in the early stages of 2013.  If Seattle continues to struggle in both areas against the lowly Jaguars in week three, then this question mark is going to quickly move into the worry category.

2. How will Russell Okung’s injury impact the offense?

The loss of the Pro Bowl left tackle is sure to have an impact on the Seattle offense.  While it is unclear how long Okung is going to be out of the line-up, it has already been announced that he will not play this weekend against Jacksonville.  Long-term, the impact to the Seahawks should even out as his replacement gets more reps playing the demanding left tackle position.  However, in the short-term, it is instructive to compare how the Seahawks have performed with and without Okung over his three-plus season career.  Okung has missed 11 games in his career and the Hawks have averaged less rushing yards and fewer yards per carry in those games.  This type of impact is unlikely to occur against the Jaguars, but it would not be surprising to see Seattle struggle in the running game if Okung misses upcoming games against Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee.

3. How good will the defense be when it gets 100% healthy?

The Seahawks have the number two overall defense and the number one scoring defense after two weeks of the 2013 season.  They have played extremely well despite having Cliff Avril for only one game and not having the services of Bruce Irvin, Jordan Hill, Chris Clemons and Brandon Browner for either game.  It is a scary proposition to think how awesome this defense can be when it has all of its top players available to play.  Could we be witnessing the nascent moments of a dominating defense similar to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens?  The key for this defense to reach its potential is to play defense more consistently away from Seattle. 

Three Worries

1. The penalty situation is the elephant in the room.

The Seahawks are the third most penalized team in the NFL after two weeks.  They have been able to overcome the extreme amount of penalties so far, but it has been killing their offensive continuity and, sooner or later, it is going to cost them a football game.  At some point, the coaching staff is going to have to find a solution to the problem.  On the positive side, the Hawks showed a lot of maturity by not getting baited into a slew of personal foul penalties during a very physical game on Sunday.  Unfortunately, there were far too many holding and procedure penalties.

2. The Seahawks pass protection is not Super Bowl caliber.

Russell Wilson ran for his life against the Carolina Panthers and the pass protection didn't improve very much against San Francisco.  It is bad enough that the Hawks are on a 48 sack pace for the season, but there franchise quarterback might not even make it to the end of the year if things don't improve.  The biggest worry is how many more sacks and quarterback hits will Wilson be exposed to in Russell Okung's absence.

3. The Seahawks need more productivity from the tight end position.

Two games into the season and the Seattle tight ends have made little to no contribution.  Luke Willson is still waiting to make his first NFL reception and Zach Miller has only five receptions and 64 yards after two weeks.  With the lack of protection for Russell Wilson, he needs his tight ends more than ever.  The challenge for Darrell Bevell and the rest of the offensive coaching staff is to figure out some schemes that will put Miller and/or Willson in a position to make a bigger contribution.

Week Two Picks

Here are my picks for Week 2 (home team in CAPS):

PATRIOTS over Jets

BEARS over Vikings

BILLS over Panthers

CHIEFS over Cowboys

Dolphins over COLTS

TEXANS over Titans

PACKERS over Redskins

RAVENS over Browns

EAGLES over Chargers

Rams over FALCONS

Saints over BUCCANEERS

Lions over CARDINALS

RAIDERS over Jaguars

Broncos over GIANTS

SEAHAWKS over 49ers

BENGALS over Steelers

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 11-5

Three Reasons Why the Jets Defy the Odds Makers

When the NFL schedule was released, the Thursday Night match-up between the Patriots and the Jets appeared to have no juice whatsoever.  Nearly everyone had written off the Jets as the biggest three-ring circus this side of the Ringling Brothers, which meant that the mere presence of the great and powerful hooded sweatshirt and the GQ good looks of Tom Brady on the other sideline would be good enough for a New England victory.  As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends.  Since the release of the schedule, the Patriots’ superiority has slowly been eroded by the arrest of Aaron Hernandez, the lingering injury situation of Rob Gronkowski, and the week one injuries to Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen.  Added to this list of woes was the March defection of Wes Welker to the Denver Broncos.  Now the great Tom Brady is being asked to win on a short week with Julian Edelman, a poor man’s Danny Amendola, Josh Boyce, Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, and Michael Hoomanawanui at his disposal.  This ragtag bunch combined for a mere 12 receptions in Week One and now they face an underrated Jets defense coming off a hope inducing victory over Tampa Bay.  The odds makers have installed the Patriots as double-digit favorites, but the huge margin seems to be based more on New England’s past than its present.  Here are three reasons why the Jets will cover the point spread and quite possible steal a victory in Foxboro.

The Jets pass defense is its best defensive asset.

In 2012, the Jets defense finished in the top ten in a number of passing categories, including yards per game, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating.  It is true that Tom Brady has had his way with the Jets defense in recent memory, but they actually held him to his second lowest yards per attempt for the 2012 season in their first match-up last year.  The Jets are coming off a solid performance against Tampa Bay, which has more overall offensive talent than the Patriots will be able to deploy Thursday Night.  Meanwhile, Brady had some major struggles generating big plays in the passing game against the fairly decent pass defense of the Buffalo Bills.  Now he is faced with an even more daunting prospect of moving the ball in the air without the services of Amendola and Vereen, who caught 59% of his completions in Week One and received nearly 50% of Brady’s targets.  Although it is probably foolish to pick against Brady too often, it feels like the cumulative impact of all the losses on offense have reached the tipping point.  For this reason, the Jets above-average pass defense should be expected to make life very difficult on the Patriots offense.  It would not be surprising to see Brady’s yards per attempt under six for the second consecutive week because he has even fewer options to attack defenses down the field.

Ground & Pound Part Deux?

In 2009 and 2010, the Jets perfected the winning formula of protecting a young quarterback with a top-notch running game and a punish defense.  In both seasons, they were in the top five in rushing yards per game and total defense.  In an attempt to protect Geno Smith, the Jets should try their very best to rekindle the Ground & Pound identity.  They certainly appear to have the defensive side of the equation covered, but the major question is can the offense run the football consistently to control the time of possession, shorten the football game, and put Smith into manageable down and distance situations.  They were a middle of the pack running team last season and they didn’t start very well in 2013 with only 90 yards rushing against the Buccaneers.  With it being a short week and the first road game of Smith’s NFL career, the Jets will commit to the run in an attempt to repeat some of the successes that Buffalo had on the ground against New England, as well as to protect their young signal-caller.  If they can run the ball 30 or more times with an average of at least four yards per carry, then they will definitely keep the game close into the fourth quarter and give them another chance to steal a victory late.

The Jets will make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket.

In Week One, the Buffalo defense was like a swarm of bees buzzing around Tom Brady to great effect.  They only sacked him twice, but they hit him another seven times and generally made it very hard for Brady to get into a rhythm with his new receivers.  The constant pressure also made Brady have to get rid of the football more quickly than he would have otherwise wanted, which greatly inhibited the Patriots’ ability to drive the football down the field and forced them to put together long drives in order to score points.  The Jets will build on a strong debut from their defensive line in week one and continue to make Brady feel like he’s playing quarterback in a phone booth. The idea is not to just bang Brady around for 60 minutes, but to also force his young wide receivers to make the right decisions about when to break off their routes in reaction to pressure from the Jets.  The hope, from New York’s perspective, is that the youngsters get overwhelmed by the big stage and make enough mistakes to slow down the Patriots offense.  Another goal for the Jets is to apply enough pressure that a frustrated Brady tries too hard to make a play with his arm and instead throws an interception or two.  Admittedly, frustrating a veteran like Brady is unlikely, but this would be the Holy Grail of outcomes for New York.

Quick Hits

Brief observations about every game in the NFL except for the Thursday Night game and the Seattle Seahawks game.

New England 23 - Buffalo 21

The New England Patriots have dominated the Buffalo Bills since Tom Brady became the starting quarterback in 2001, but the difference between the two teams seems to be shrinking in a real way.  The Bills defense made life miserable for Brady and harassed him into one of the worst games he has ever played against Buffalo.  For example, Brady had the fourth worst yards per attempt average he has ever had in a victory over the Bills.  Couple Brady’s struggles with the encouraging start from E.J. Manuel and even the most forlorn Buffalo fan has a reason to smile and look forward to the future.

Chicago 24 - Cincinnati 21

The Chicago Bears posted one of the more impressive victories in Week One.  They not only beat the team that many people think will win the AFC North, but they did it in a very un-Bear-like way by limiting mistakes.  The Bears turned the ball over just once.  More importantly, they protected Jay Cutler like the gold at Fort Knox giving up zero sacks against the team that had the second highest sack total in the entire NFL in 2012.  They also showed their discipline by committing just four penalties.  If this version of the Chicago Bears shows up on a weekly basis, then they are going to be hard to beat.

Miami 23 - Cleveland 10

The Cleveland Browns looked as bad on offense under the guidance of Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner as they did under the Pat Shurmur and Brad Childress regime.  They couldn’t sustain drives, they couldn’t protect the quarterback, and they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with turnovers and penalties.  As a result of the loss, the Browns still have not won their home opener since 2004.  Their defense might be better, but the Browns will still be stuck in the cellar of the AFC North if the offensive brain trust can’t get more out of Brandon Weeden.

Detroit 34 - Minnesota 24

It was a stellar start for Adrian Peterson, who broke off a 78-yard touchdown run on his first touch of the 2013 season, but the rest of the afternoon was mostly an exercise in frustration.  The Lions defense bottled up Peterson after the touchdown run and put the burden on Christian Ponder to win the game.  Unfortunately, Ponder did nothing to answer the question marks about his ability to be a viable NFL starting quarterback.  If anything, the drum beat to replace Ponder is going to get louder and steadier.

Indianapolis 21 - Oakland 17

If you are a fan of the Oakland Raiders, it must have been extremely encouraging to see the way that Terrelle

Pryor played on Sunday.  Pryor was far from perfect, but he used his arm and his legs to keep the Raiders in

the game all the way to the end.  He completed 65% of his attempts for a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt

average and he combined designed runs with well-timed scrambles to set the Oakland franchise record for

rushing yards for a quarterback.  If he continues to progress, the Raiders just might have their first franchise

quarterback since Rich Gannon.  How much does it suck to be Matt Flynn?

New Orleans 23 - Atlanta 17

It’s no surprise that the Atlanta-New Orleans game was in doubt down to the very last play when you

consider the recent history of the series.  The six-point victory by the Saints represented the seventh time in

the last nine meetings that the margin of victory was eight points or less.  The more surprising statistic is that

the Saints have dominated the Falcons to the tune of a 12-3 record since Drew Brees joined the organization

in 2006.

New York Jets 18 - Tampa Bay 17

It is difficult to come up with a bigger stomach punch loss than the one suffered by Tampa Bay to the Jets. 

After playing pretty poorly for most of the game, the Bucs had mustered a game-winning drive and led the

Jets by two points with less than a minute left in the game.  Unfortunately, linebacker Lavonte David gift

wrapped a New York victory with one of the most boneheaded plays in recent memory.  Instead of allowing

Geno Smith to willingly step out of bounds, David thought it would be a good idea to give him a somewhat

innocuous but nonetheless illegal shove when Smith was already a step across the sideline.  Regardless of the

ending, the biggest takeaway from this game is that the Jets might have a better future at quarterback than the

Buccaneers.

Tennessee 16 - Pittsburgh 9

There were some pundits who expected the Steelers to take a step back offensively due to the departure of

Mike Wallace, the absence of Heath Miller and the lack of a viable running game, but it was a bit shocking

to see the Black & Gold set offensive football back to the age of the leather helmet.  Pittsburgh could only

muster 195 total yards, which included an anemic 32 yards on the ground.  Making matters worse, the

Steelers will have to find answers without the benefit of having Maurkice Pouncey, the anchor of their

offense, in the line-up for the rest of 2013.  Like a bad traffic accident, a lot of NFL observers are going to

be craning their necks to see how bad things get in the Steel City before they get better.

Kansas City 28 - Jacksonville 2

How much more evidence do we need to decide that Blaine Gabbert is not going to be a successful NFL

quarterback?  He has completed a shade over 53% of his passes in 26 appearances spread over 2+

seasons.  On Sunday, he completed just 46% of his attempts before heading to the locker room with a hand

laceration.  His career yards per attempt are a woeful 5.51.  In this category, he is the worst quarterback

over the last two seasons and he didn’t start the 2013 season off with a bang.  His yards per attempt on

Sunday were the seventh lowest in game since 1960.  In other words, Gabbert was historically bad against

the Chiefs.  For God’s sake, his QBR was 1.2 when you get a 25 for just buckling your chinstrap correctly. 

The fans in Jacksonville, if there are any left, must be wondering what they have done to anger the football

gods so badly.  While other cities are blessed with young and exciting quarterbacks, the Jaguars have quite

possibly the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.

St. Louis 27 - Arizona 24

Three things are clear from watching the Cardinals vs. the Rams: (1) Arizona finally has a legitimate

quarterback, (2) Robert Quinn has an insatiable hunger for quarterbacks, and (3) the Rams’ best weapon is

Jared Cook.

San Francisco 34 - Green Bay 28

The 49ers rope-a-doped the Green Bay Packers by riding Colin Kaepernick’s right arm to victory instead of

his two legs.  If you remember back to the 2012 playoffs, Kaepernick emasculated the Packers defense by

running for 181 yards and two touchdowns.  Rather than try to repeat the virtuoso performance, the

offensive game plan called for a heavy dose of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis.  They combined for 19

receptions, 316 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.  Kaepernick bedeviled the Packers in an entirely

new way and further showed why he is going to be tough to stop.

Dallas 36 - New York Giants 31

Hey David Wilson, let me show you your new digs: it’s got just enough room for you to curl up inside, you

will be able to sleep under the stars, and you will have a separate bowl for food and water.  Unfortunately,

Coach Coughlin won’t be letting you touch the football very much until you go to the Tiki Barber School of

Protecting the Football.  It’s fun to pile on Wilson, but let’s not forget the other four turnovers committed by

the Giants, including three costly interceptions by Eli Manning.  Frankly, it is amazing that the G-Men made it

as close as they did.

Philadelphia 33 - Washington 27

Am I the only one that wasn’t impressed by the 53 plays run by the Eagles on Monday Night?  Sure they are

running the offense at a breakneck pace, but it doesn’t hurt when the opposing team runs less than 25 plays

in the first half.  For the record, the Eagles only ran 24 plays in the second half because the Redskins finally

started looking like a legitimate NFL football team.  It’s easy to see that Chip Kelly will be an exciting

addition to the league, but let’s not get the good folks over at the Pro Football Hall of Fame working on his

bust too soon.

Houston 31 - San Diego 28

The capper to a solid first week of professional football was the Houston Texans reeling off 24 unanswered

points to clip the Chargers at the final whistle 31-28.  The quality of play for Houston through the first 2+

quarters was about as bad as you can expect from a team that has serious designs on making a run to the

Super Bowl.  At the 10:42 mark of the third quarter, they had allowed Philip Rivers to slice and dice their

defense for nearly 200 yards passing and four touchdowns.  From that point forward, the Chargers offense

possessed the ball five times and produced 10 total yards, four punts, no first downs and had an interception

returned for a touchdown.  It was an epic collapse by the Chargers, who could have salted the game away

with just a handful of first downs.