Quick Hits - Week 12

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Pittsburgh 27 – Cleveland 11

After being written off by many following a 0-4 start, the Steelers have won five of seven to inexplicably get back into the thick of the AFC playoff race.  Their victory over the Browns was perhaps there most complete game of the season.  The offense played mistake-free football for the second week in a row and didn’t allow a sack for the first time in 2013.  The defense, resembling a steel curtain for the first time this year, sacked Cleveland’s signal-callers a season-high five times and forced a season high four turnovers.  In the process, they knocked Jason Campbell out of the game, which meant Brandon Weeden was thrust once more onto the field for the Browns.  I’m pretty sure there is nothing more chilling for Cleveland fans than to see Weeden putting his helmet on and jogging into the pocket.  It appears like the Browns will miss the playoffs again, while the Steelers lurk one spot out of the final wild card position currently held by Tennessee.

Tampa Bay 24 – Detroit 21

Congrats to the Bucs, who are one of just three teams in NFL history to win three consecutive games after starting a season 0-8 or worse.  Keep in mind that they should really be working on four straight victories if they had been able to close out the Seattle Seahawks a few weeks ago.  It’s too late for Tampa to make a playoff run, but they are probably buying their head coach another season with their strong play.  I’m puzzled by all of the supposed unrest in the Bucs’ locker room that has been reported this season because they don’t have the look of a team that hates their head coach.  Maybe Josh Freeman was truly the locker room cancer he was painted to be because Tampa has been a lot more competitive, even in their losses, since he was jettisoned. 

Green Bay 26 – Minnesota 26

It’s no mind-blowing revelation, but ties are the most unsatisfying result in sports.  Players in both locker rooms described it as feeling like they had lost the game.  Jared Allen, in a unique Jared Allen kind of way, described it as “going to prom with your sister.”  This empty feeling is one of the major reasons why I have such a hard time following professional soccer.  I want to have a definitive result of which team was better.  Unfortunately, we had no such luck in this match-up, which will go down in history as the first tie game since the new overtime rules were introduced.  The one thing that I did learn from this game is that apparently Matt Flynn only performs like a credible NFL quarterback when he dons the hunter green and gold of the Green Bay Packers.  The well-traveled and well-compensated quarterback came off the bench to nearly lead the Packers to victory after they trailed 23-7 early in the fourth quarter.  His performance rekindled some of the memories of his infamous six-touchdown performance in the 2011 season finale and demonstrated some of the skills that made him one of the most sought after free agents following that season.  While Aaron Rodgers continues to rehab, Flynn has definitely earned the right to start in week 13.

San Diego 41 – Kansas City 38

The good vibes that the Chiefs had created during their 9-0 start to the season have quickly dissipated after back-to-back losses.  The setback to the Broncos last week was very explainable, but the loss to the 4-6 Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium is extremely puzzling.  On the positive side of the ledger, Kansas City can feel good about their offense generating 38 points, even though it was the most they have scored in a loss in franchise history.  Unfortunately, their supposedly elite defense got lit up by Philip Rivers and the Chargers and continued a troubling trend of generating virtually zero pass rush, which started in week eight versus Cleveland.  The Chiefs allowed over 420 total yards for the third consecutive game and three red zone touchdowns for the second straight week after allowing only three total red zone touchdowns in the first nine games of the season.  Even more discouraging for Chiefs’ fans is the prospective of facing the Denver Broncos this week without the services of their book-end pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who both were injured this week.  I have always contended that the KC defense was overrated, so seeing them struggle against quality quarterback play is not such a big surprise. 

St. Louis 42 – Chicago 21

What the heck has gotten into the St. Louis Rams?  They have destroyed their past two opponents by a combined 51 points and they have suddenly developed a running game, which was completely nonexistent through the first seven weeks of the season.  Their modest two-game winning streak has the Rams convinced that they can make a run to the playoffs.  I think there are too many teams ahead them.

Carolina 20 – Miami 16

The red hot Panthers are taking the NFL by storm after winning their seventh consecutive game, which is their longest streak since 2003.  They won’t get a lot of style points for this win, but they continue to show that they cannot be counted out until the clock reads zeroes.  The Dolphins seemed to be in total control after a 23-yard Caleb Sturgis field goal gave them a 13-point lead with just over one minute left in the first half.  Unfortunately, the Dolphins allowed Carolina to get three points before halftime and then were shut out in the second half while the Panthers scored two touchdowns.  It was another face plant by Miami, who is now 2-2 since the bullying and hazing allegations came to light.  The Dolphins can pin the blame for this latest loss on their inability to sustain drives (4-16 on third down) and score touchdowns in the red zone (2 FGs in 2 opportunities).  While Carolina continues to apply pressure to the Saints for the lead in the NFC South, Miami has to once again circle the wagons to see if they can sustain one final playoff push.

Baltimore 19 – NY Jets 3

It is a shame that poor quarterback play is threatening to completely undermine the Jets’ season because they are a playoff caliber team in most other areas.  They have a top 10 running game and a top 10 defense, including number one against the run, but the inability to get consistent production from Geno Smith is killing their playoff chances right before their very eyes.  Since Smith’s breakout game against Atlanta in week five, he has thrown one touchdown pass against 10 interceptions.  In that span, he hasn’t registered a QB rating over 72.3, completed more than 62% of his attempts, or thrown for more than 233 yards in any single game.  His yards per attempt have plummeted from 8.2 yards through the first five weeks to just under 6 yards in the last six weeks.  He has become the opposite of a game manager.  I think it might be time for Rex Ryan to give Matt Simms an opportunity to see if he can protect the ball better than Geno.

Jacksonville 13 – Houston 6

I think it is time to declare the Texans the worst team in football.  They are working on a nine-game losing streak with the latest indignity being a loss to the rotten Jaguars at home when they mustered only six points and produced their lowest total offense figure of the season.  Remember that they are extremely fortunate to have two victories needing miraculous comebacks to beat San Diego and Tennessee in the first two weeks of the year.  How does a team with this much talent on both sides of the football collapse so epically?  I guess you start with a veteran quarterback self-imploding due to a barrage of pick-sixes and a subsequent crisis of confidence.  Then you add the general ineffectiveness of and later season-ending injury to your franchise running back.  Finally, to spice things up, you mix in a young quarterback learning on the job and a health scare for the head coach.  This is a recipe for people to get pink slips and the house to get cleaned.  Don’t be surprised if Gary Kubiak, along with several veterans on the offense, get trap-doored to pay for the sins of the 2013 season.

Tennessee 23 – Oakland 19

As unbelievable as it sounds, the Titans would be the sixth and final playoff participant in the AFC if the season ended today.  They are the kings of the mediocre.  The best 5-6 team by virtue of winning head-to-head match-ups with Pittsburgh, New York, and San Diego.  Can the Titans hold on to the final playoff spot?  I doubt it, primarily because Ryan Fitzpatrick is prominently involved, but they have just as good of a shot as any of the other five teams currently sitting at 5-6.

Arizona 40 – Indianapolis 11

Let me start by channeling my inner Marshall Faulk and stating that I don’t believe in either of these teams.  The Cardinals have won four games in a row, but their four victims are a combined 13-31.  Furthermore, they played three of the four games in the comfy confines of University of Phoenix stadium.  I will agree that their defense is playing lights out football, but shouldn’t it be assumed that a halfway decent defense should dominate the dregs of the NFL.  Just prior to their winning streak, the mighty Cardinals gave up an average of 33 points and 366 yards of total offense in back-to-back losses to Seattle and San Francisco.  I’m even more incredulous about Carson Palmer’s recent play.  Yes, he has only thrown two picks over the last four games, but he is still the same quarterback that threw 13 interceptions over the first seven games.  With a tough schedule down the stretch, featuring three road games, I’m predicting that the old Carson Palmer will reemerge.  As for the Colts, how long can they rest on their laurels of beating San Francisco, Denver, and Seattle?  While I can admit that those are three of the most impressive victories for any team, the Colts that took the field on Sunday and got throttled by Arizona are not the same team.  In the last four games, Indy has been outscored 93-12 in the first half and has led for only 26:46, which is 11.1% of the total game time.  Their running game has been awful the last four weeks (76 yards per game) and Andrew Luck has struggled to throw the ball consistently especially since the loss of Reggie Wayne to injury.  I believe that the Colts will make the playoffs due to the fact they have a commanding lead over the second-place Titans, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them lose in the wild card round.

Dallas 24 – NY Giants 21

Hallelujah, Tony Romo led a game-winning drive to beat the Giants on the road!  Let’s absolve him for all of the choke jobs and poor performances he’s had in the past.  He’s a clutch quarterback again!  Yeah, right.  Listen, give Romo and the Cowboys some credit for winning a game they absolutely had to have, but don’t get carried away.  This version of the Giants is terrible.  Everyone got excited about New York’s four-game winning streak, but they had beaten four of the worst quarterbacks in professional football (Josh Freeman, Hobbled Mike Vick/Matt Barkley, Terrelle Pryor, and Scott Tolzien). You will never confuse Tony Romo for Joe Montana, but he is a considerable step up in class from the aforementioned bums.  The Giants defense couldn’t rise up to the challenge and their offense couldn’t take complete advantage of the worst defense in football.  Neither of these teams is truly playoff caliber, but, by winning, the Cowboys made sure that they kept their postseason hopes alive.

New England 34 – Denver 31

The much-hyped match-up between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning was compelling television, but I’m not sure that we can call it a good display of football.  The Patriots fumbled the ball three times in the first half on their way to trailing 24-0 at halftime.  Brady played terribly in the first half, as he has done regularly this season, with only 81 yards passing and a 59% completion percentage.  The game completely flipped after the break as the Broncos turned the ball over two times and allowed the Patriots to score 31 unanswered points before tying the game at 31 apiece late in the fourth.  Neither team looked like they wanted to win the game in overtime until the Broncos committed their fourth, and most fatal, turnover to set-up an easy Stephen Gostkowski field goal.  Denver should not have lost this game, but their defense completely fell apart in the second half and Manning played like a stiff, old man the entire game.  It was Manning’s worst performance of the season by far and a major reason why he fell to 4-10 in head-to-head match-ups with Brady.  For the Patriots, this victory is a huge feather in their cap and puts them squarely in play for the best record in the AFC.  For a team that has seen its offense sputter all year long due to dramatic changes at the skill positions and its defense ravaged by injuries, it has to feel good that they can still earn home field advantage despite all of the trials and tribulations.

San Francisco 27 – Washington 6

I’ll take the bait.  Robert Griffin III should not be playing.  At the beginning of the year, I thought it was a bad decision to rush him back for the first game of the season.  I don’t think he was 100% healthy when the year started and there is no way he was going to get healthy playing week in and week out in the NFL.  There was a brief moment after the victory over Chicago that it appeared as if the old RGIII had finally made his appearance in 2013.  However, he has struggled intermittently since that game culminating in a shockingly impotent performance on Monday night.  The 49ers defense sacked him four times, pressured him countless other times and held him to a mere 127 yards passing.  His two tackles, Tyler Polumbus and Trent Williams, didn’t appear motivated in the least to protect their supposed franchise quarterback and RGIII has not regained his prior explosiveness, which he desperately needed against Ahmad Brooks, Aldon Smith and company.  The bigger issue to me is the frustration level that started to set in with RGIII.  There didn't seem to be a lot of love shown by him to his offensive teammates and it appears that the feeling is mutual.  I read today that RGIII has been sacked 26 times this year, but has been helped up by one of his teammates on only three occasions.  The bottom line is that something, beyond just the performance of the team on the field, has gone wrong in year two of the RGIII Experience.  The end game will most likely be the firing of Mike Shanahan, which will mean that Washington will have to reboot once again with a new coach in an attempt to reclaim the glory days of Joe Gibbs.

Week 12 Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player in NFL history to reach 11,000 receiving yards.

Stat of the Week no. 2: In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots improved to 33-8 after a loss, which is the best record in NFL history (min. 20 such games).

Stat of the Week no. 3: Tampa Bay is the 3rd team in NFL history to win three straight after starting 0-8 or worse (1978 Cardinals & 1986 Colts).

Stat of the Week no. 4: Steve Smith is the 22nd player in NFL history with 12,000 career receiving yards.

Stat of the Week no. 5: Tavon Austin is the first rookie in NFL history with a 65+ yard punt return, 65+ yard TD catch, and a 65+ yard TD run.  He is only the 4th players since 1960 with rushing, receiving, and punt return TDs of 60 yards or greater.

Bonus Stat of the Week: Monday night was the first time in RGIII's career as a college or professional QB in which his team's offense failed to score a TD. 

Week 11 Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: Peyton Manning has the most passing yards through the first 10 games of the season of any QB in NFL history.

Stat of the Week no. 2: With his 50th catch of the season, Tony Gonzalez earned his 16th year with at least 50 receptions, second only to Jerry Rice with 17 seasons.

Stat of the Week no. 3: Matt McGloin is the 1st undrafted rookie free agent QB with three TD passes in a game since Eric Kramer did it back in 1987.

Stat of the Week no. 4: Tom Brady made his 185th NFL start with Bill Belichick as his coach, which are the most starts in history by a QB-head coach duo.

Stat of the Week no. 5: The Carolina Panthers are the first team since the 1935 Giants to allow 1 or fewer first half TDs over the first 10 games of a season. 

Week 12 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 12 (home team in CAPS):

Saints over FALCONS
BROWNS over Steelers
LIONS over Buccaneers
PACKERS over Vikings
CHIEFS over Chargers
Bears over RAMS
Panthers over DOLPHINS
RAVENS over Jets
TEXANS over Jaguars
RAIDERS over Titans
CARDINALS over Colts
GIANTS over Cowboys
Broncos over PATRIOTS
49ers over REDSKINS

Last Week: 11-4

Overall: 108-54

Three Reasons Why the Saints Cruise to their Ninth Win

It is unfortunate that the Atlanta Falcons are mired in such a disappointing season because it has taken most of the spice out of their Thursday night showdown with the New Orleans Saints.  Although the Saints have a 12-3 record versus the Falcons since Drew Brees took over at quarterback, this match-up has been one of the more entertaining and competitive rivalries in the NFL with seven of the last nine meetings being settled by eight points or less.  In their previous encounter this season, the Saints had to survive a final Falcons’ drive that ended on downs deep in New Orleans territory.  At the time, there was no indication that Atlanta’s season would go completely off the rails as most observers assumed that the extremely competitive game meant that these two teams would once again battle one another for the NFC South title.  However, that was before the Falcons lost Julio Jones to a season-ending foot injury and several other key performers on both sides of the ball went down with a myriad of short- and long-term injuries.  The result has been the most losses in a single season under Mike Smith and a virtually guaranteed losing record unless the Falcons can win their final six games.  On the other side of the field, the Saints are in the middle of an amazing reversal of fortune from their 2012 season.  They lost their first four games of last season on their way to finishing the year 7-9.  The poor results were directly related to the Bounty-gate related sanctions, most importantly the yearlong banishment of head coach Sean Payton, and the play of a historically bad defense.  This year, Payton returned to the sideline and brought in Rob Ryan to lead the defense.  Payton has kept the offense running at a high-level and Ryan has overseen a dramatic change to the defense, which is allowing 135 total yards and 10 points less per game than the 2012 unit.  Ultimately, the Saints are where the Falcons expected to be: leading the division and still in the running for the NFC’s top seed.  While the general NFL fan would love to see another down-to-the-wire, competitive game, this game is a classic “two teams heading in different directions” match-up and neither the short week nor the Falcons’ home field advantage should impact the expected New Orleans victory.  As a result, I’m picking the Saints to win fairly easily and set up an enormous Monday Nightshowdown with the Seattle Seahawks on December 2^nd.  Here are three more reasons why I like New Orleans to add insult to injury to the Falcons.

 

Pressure, pressure, pressure from the Saints

As a result of the introduction of Rob Ryan’s attacking, 3-4 defense, the Saints have the fifth highest sack total in the NFL and have generated a great deal of pressure on opposing offenses.  The pass rush is led by Jordan Cameron and Junior Gallette, who both rank highly in pass rush productivity according to Pro Football Focus.  Although they haven’t been nearly as productive away from the Superdome, the Saints get to unleash their pressure packages against an offense that allows pressure on over 40% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks.  While I don’t expect the Saints to have any trouble creating pressure, the key to this game will be their ability to turn the pressure into sacks and mistakes by Ryan, whether they come in the form of turnovers or bad decisions.  Getting Ryan on the ground will be important because the Falcons have the second lowest sack percentage in the NFL despite having the ninth highest pressure percentage.  This discrepancy tells me that Ryan’s veteran savvy and quick decision-making is bailing out his atrocious offensive line. Regardless of the Saints’ final sack total, they cannot allow Ryan to become comfortable in the pocket because he is a completely different quarterback when he is under pressure versus not under pressure.  So far this season, he has a completion percentage that is 22 points higher and a QB rating that is 43 points higher when he doesn’t face pressure. Obviously, the Saints are aware of Ryan’s struggles this season, so expect them to bring the heat early and often in an attempt to force turnovers and quick throws.

 

Falcons won’t be able to exploit the Saints’ defensive weaknesses

The Saints defense has struggled in two key areas this season: (1) red zone efficiency (allowed TDs on 60% of opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line) and (2) run defense, especially on the road.  Unfortunately, for the Falcons, their atrocious running game isn’t capable of consistently making the Saints defense pay for their occasional lapses in run defense.  Atlanta finds itself ranked 31^st in the NFL in rushing yards per game and has generated more than 88 yards in just two ballgames this season.  With the running game continuing to struggle, the Falcons will have to resort to a pass-heavy game plan that will expose Ryan to the devious blitz and pressure packages that the Saints are sure to unleash.  It will just continue a season-long trend of Matt Ryan’s right arm being the best chance that Atlanta has to be competitive.  He has already had seven games where he has attempted 38 or more passes, which equals the number that he had for the entire 2012 season.  The inability to balance the offense will keep the Falcons’ from sustaining drives, which means they won’t have a lot of red zone opportunities.  If they can’t get into the scoring zone, then they won’t really be able to take full advantage of the Saints’ vulnerabilities in that area of the field.  Ultimately, the Saints defense won’t allow the Falcons to score enough to keep up with Drew Brees and New Orleans offense.

 

The Falcons defense is really bad

Last season, the Atlanta defense only allowed 18.7 points per game, which was one of the major reasons why they won 13 games and nearly advanced to the Super Bowl.  This year, the Falcons are allowing 29.2 points per game and the next touchdown they allow will mean that they will have given up the same number of total points as they allowed in all of 2012.  Their staggering decline in stopping their opponents from scoring is related to a 180 degree shift in their red zone defense and in the number of forced turnovers.  In 2012, the Falcons allowed 19 red zone touchdowns the entire season, but they have already allowed 23 red zone touchdowns this year on six fewer opportunities, which has them ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive red zone efficiency.  In terms of turnovers, Atlanta has only created eight turnovers in ten games (2^nd lowest in the NFL) and has an NFL worst -11 turnover differential.  This team is basically the same team that caused 31 turnovers last season, which helped drive a +13 turnover differential (both numbers were fifth highest in the league).  I would be remiss not to mention that the Falcons have been without the services of several defensive stalwarts for parts of this year, but it would be careless to assume that they would have approached last year’s defensive performance had they just avoided the injuries.  Now they get to face the number two offense in total yards and scoring, which is led by a top five quarterback and a game-changing tight end to go along with a bevy of complementary weapons that has to be keeping defensive coordinator Mike Nolan up at night.  As a result, the Saints shouldn’t have any trouble putting up close to their scoring average, which should be more than enough to cruise to their ninth victory of the year. 

Week 11 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 11 (home team in CAPS):

Colts over TITANS
Jets over BILLS
BEARS over Ravens
BENGALS over Browns
EAGLES over Redskins
Lions over STEELERS
BUCCANEERS over Falcons
Cardinals over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Raiders
Chargers over DOLPHINS
SAINTS over 49ers
GIANTS over Packers
SEAHAWKS over Vikings
BRONCOS over Chiefs
PANTHERS over Patriots

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 97-50

Three Reasons Why the Colts Win Tonight

The Colts and Titans face-off on Thursday night with new questions swirling about how each team will react to the serious setback they each suffered this past Sunday.  On one hand, the Colts are trying to recover from the second-worst loss of the Andrew Luck era, which saw them get completely destroyed by the St. Louis Rams 38-8.  The two most disturbing aspects of the loss were the terrible performance by Luck and the fact that they lost so horrifically in front of the home fans.  Luck turned the ball over four times and was one of the chief reasons behind the Colts’ 0-5 performance in the red zone.  On the other side, the Titans face a must-win situation this week because their once promising season has been completely undermined by two significant injuries to their starting quarterback.  The unfortunate part is that they have to turn their season around behind the right arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick after losing Jake Locker for the rest of the year to a foot injury.  With both teams facing some serious adversity, it should make for a spirited and hard fought football game.  In addition, I’m guessing that both teams are looking forward to playing the first game of Week 11 in order to stop answering questions about the face plants they both suffered the week prior.  While I’m expecting a competitive game, it feels like the Colts have two significant advantages playing in their favor: (1) they have the better starting quarterback and (2) they should have more motivation to seize the opportunity to put a stranglehold on the AFC South.  As a result, I’m picking Indianapolis to right the ship and win the game.  Here are three more reasons why I like the Colts.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at quarterback for the Titans.

If you didn’t already know, I don’t trust Fitzpatrick to be a competent NFL quarterback.  Actually, I don’t trust him to do much of anything.  There is a reason why the Buffalo Bills dumped him after last season after giving him an extended opportunity to be their quarterback of the future.  The biggest reason is that he is turnover-prone, which led to more losses than the Bills were willing to stomach.  In fact, he has the third most turnovers (72) in the NFL since 2010. Looking back on just his last eight starts (two in 2013 and six in 2012), Fitzpatrick’s teams are only 2-6 and he has turned the ball over 12 times during that stretch.  In addition, he has demonstrated two additional traits during this eight-game stretch that are career killers for NFL signal-callers: inaccuracy (56.3% completion rate) and the inability to push the ball down the field (6.5 yards per attempt).  While his final numbers looked pretty good last week in relief of Locker, he still turned the ball at a critical juncture of the game, which turned into the decisive score to cement the Jaguars’ first win of the season.  I’m expecting a salty performance from the Indianapolis defense in an attempt to erase the memories of what another back-up quarterback, Kellen Clemens, did to them last week.  As a result, you can count on at least two turnovers from Fitzpatrick that will help swing the game in Indy’s favor.

 

No one circles the wagons better than the Colts with Andrew Luck.

While I would admit that the above statement contains more than its share of hyperbole, I would argue that there is definitely a trend developing with the Colts responding very well the week after a loss.  In fact, Indianapolis is 7-0 following a loss since Luck took over as the starting quarterback at the beginning of last season.  In the Luck era, they have lost games by 35 points, 26 points, and 20 points and bounced back the following week with a victory, so I don’t see it being too difficult to shake off the 30-point beat down they suffered at the hands of the Rams.  The key to their unblemished record has been the near 180 degree shift in Andrew Luck’s level of play.  In the eight losses, Luck has turned the ball over 18 times and has produced a 41.7 average in Total QBR.  However, in the seven games following a loss, Luck has 13 total touchdowns and only three turnovers.  In addition, he has generated a 71.3 average in Total QBR.  The numbers seem to indicate that Luck does an outstanding job of refocusing after a poor performance and, subsequently, plays a much smarter brand of football the next time out.  I’m expecting Luck to shake off the atrocious, four-turnover performance last week just like he shook off a four-turnover performance last season, in a 35-point loss to New England, and lead the Colts to their seventh victory of the season. 

 

Pep Hamilton will restore balance to the Indianapolis offense.

While it is probably a bit of a stretch to call Hamilton a product of the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree, since he only spent one season under Harbaugh at Stanford, it would be fair to say that he has been greatly influenced by his time spent on The Farm.  Hamilton wants his offense to be physical.  He wants to lead with the running game, which, if successful, should facilitate a strong play-action passing attack.  Ultimately, he wants a balanced offense, which is very different than the pass happy offense that the Colts operated under Bruce Arians.  Unfortunately, there have been times this season, most notably in their losses, where the offensive balance has been less than ideal.  In the Colts’ three losses, they have passed the ball on 67.2% of their plays. Obviously, the circumstances of each game could have dictated a greater focus on the aerial attack, but the losses to Miami and San Diego were never so far out of reach that the running game should have been sacrificed.  It feels like there were times when Hamilton would start to call plays that put the ball in the hands of his great, young quarterback rather than calling plays that fit his offensive philosophy or some pre-defined pass-run ratio.  Nevertheless, I feel like it is very instructive to see how Hamilton adjusted his play calling in the games following a loss.  While the sample is extremely small, the Colts have run the football 52.6% of the time in the two games they have played following a loss with Hamilton as the offensive coordinator.  After the disastrous effort last week, I feel like Hamilton is going to find ways to emphasize the run in order to take some of the pressure off of Luck and potentially exploit one of the areas where the Tennessee defense is vulnerable.  The balanced approach might lead to a more conservative offense, but the Colts don’t need to score more than 20 points to beat the Titans.  This outcome of this game will hinge on the number of mistakes each team makes and I’m betting that Hamilton’s game plan ensures that the Colts make fewer errors.

Week 10 Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: Since 1997, the Cowboys have won 133 games and lost 133 games. 

Stat of the Week no. 2: The Eagles are the first team to get their first five wins of a season on the road since the 1989 49ers. 

Stat of the Week no. 3: Reggie Bush is the first Lions player with multiple 100-yd rushing games against the Bears in a single season since Barry Sanders in 1997.

Stat of the Week no. 4: The Jags are now 2-20 in their last 22 games with both wins coming against the Titans. 

Stat of the Week no. 5: Tavon Austin is the 3rd player in NFL history with three TDs of 55 yards or longer in a game (Cliff Battles, Chris Johnson).

Bonus Stat of the Week: Tracy Porter is the only player with an interception return for a TD against Eli Manning and Peyton Manning. 

Week 10 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 10 (home team in CAPS):

VIKINGS over Redskins
Lions over BEARS
PACKERS over Eagles
TITANS over Jaguars
COLTS over Rams
GIANTS over Raiders
STEELERS over Bills
Bengals over RAVENS
Panthers over 49ERS
Texans over CARDINALS
Broncos over CHARGERS
SAINTS over Cowboys
BUCCANEERS over Dolphins

Seahawks over FALCONS

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 88-45

Mid-season Awards

Most Valuable Player: Peyton Manning (71.2%, 29 TD, 119.4 QB Rating, 84.2 Total QBR)

This is the biggest no-brainer of all the mid-season awards.  Manning is piloting the most prolific scoring offense in the NFL and he is on pace to shatter all kinds of NFL single-season records. While some may point to the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal as a way to diminish his MVP worthiness, something tells me that the Denver offense would be just a little different with Brock Osweiler calling the plays.

 

Other candidates: Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady

 

Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson (47 receptions, 821 yards, 117.5 yds/game)

While it would be pretty easy to hand this award to Manning as well, let’s throw Megatron a bone and reward him for being the most awe-inspiring offensive player in the NFL.  If anyone has a beef with Megatron getting this award, go back and watch the tape of Detroit’s visit to Lambeau without him and the tape of him completely destroying the Dallas defense single-handedly.  The Lions’ offense can barely walk and chew gum at the same time without him, but transforms into one of the elite offenses in the NFL with him in the line-up. 

 

Other candidates: Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

 

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (6 sacks, 27 tackles, 4 batted passes, 51.0 overall grade from PFF)

This might be the most difficult award to hand. There are so many guys that are deserving of winning, but I have to go with the reigning defensive player of the year because in some ways he is outpacing what he did last season.  Pro Football Focus has graded Watt as the best defensive player in the NFL and it’s not even close.  While his sack numbers are way down compared to last season, he continues to be a major disruption for opposing teams in the passing game and running game.  For example, he leads the league in tackles for loss (not including sacks) with 10. 

 

Other candidates: Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Robert Quinn, Robert Mathis, Gerald McCoy, Sean Lee, Earl Thomas

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy (596 yards, 4.4 yds/carry, 4 TDs)

There are a lot of good options for this award, but none better than Lacy, who leads all rookies in rushing yards despite missing two games completely and the better part of a third.  He has completely changed the offensive approach in Green Bay to a much more balanced offense.  His presence on the roster has people believing that the Packers can weather the Aaron Rodgers injury over the next three weeks.

 

Other candidates: Giovani Bernard, Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed, Zac Stacy

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sheldon Richardson (3 sacks, 26 tackles, 1 batted pass, 14.6 overall grade from PFF)

According to Pro Football Focus, Richardson has the highest grade for any rookie defender through nine weeks.  He has the sixth best grade of any 3-4 defensive end and the ninth best grade amongst all defensive ends regardless of scheme.  Along with Muhammad Wilkerson, he is anchoring the NFL’s best run defense.  While Kiko Alonso has had more spectacular moments, Richardson has been much more consistent and deserves this award more.

 

Other candidates: Star Lotulelei, Kiko Alonso, Marcus Cooper, Tyrann Mathieu, Eric Reid

 

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid (9-0 record)

The Chiefs were 2-14 last year and are the NFL’s last unbeaten team this year.  Other than trading for Alex Smith, the biggest offseason change was hiring Reid to coach the team.  Enough said. Reid will win this award in a landslide unless the Chiefs completely fall apart in the second half.

 

Other Candidates: Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, Rex Ryan, Bill Belichick, Sean Payton

 

Comeback Player of the Year: Sean Lee (90 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery, 1 TD)

Lee missed 10 games in 2012 due to a toe injury.  He has returned in 2013 as the undisputed leader of the Dallas defense and has been wreaking havoc on the rest of the NFL.  He is actually tied for the league lead in interceptions. This award is still probably RGIII’s to lose, but right now Lee is more deserving.

Other Candidates: Robert Griffin III, Darrelle Revis

Week Nine Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: The Bears' 442 total yards were their most ever in a win at Lambeau Field. Also, the game featured two rushers with 120+ yards for just the 2nd time in series history. 

Stat of the Week no. 2: The Jets joined the 2005 Patriots as the only teams in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through the first nine games. 

Stat of the Week no. 3: The comeback wins by Seattle and Indianapolis marked the 5th time since 2000 that two teams overcame 18+ point deficit to win in the same week. 

Stat of the Week no. 4: It had been 59 days since Peyton Manning threw seven TD passes. Manning was the first player to do it in 16,048 days. Nick Foles was the first to throw seven in only three quarters. 

Stat of the Week no. 5: Cam Newton had his 18th career game with a TD pass & TD run. No other player has more than six in the last three seasons.

Bonus Stat of the Week: Jeff Fisher joined Curly Lambeau as the only coaches in NFL history to face the team they led for 17+ seasons. 

Week Nine - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

3 Facts

1. The Seattle offense bounces back from the debacle in St. Louis.

After their most abysmal performance of the season, the Seahawks offense responded very well against Tampa Bay.  They moved the ball consistently the entire game, but were held back by two costly turnovers deep in Buccaneers’ territory.  Nevertheless, the Hawks generated 415 yards of total offense, which represents their third highest total of the season, and scored 27 points.  The highlights of the offensive performance were Marshawn Lynch’s season-high 125 yards rushing and another gritty performance from Russell Wilson (19-26, 217 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs).  I feel like this was Seattle’s best rushing performance of the season because the yards came primarily from Lynch and Robert Turbin.  It was also impressive because the Hawks were able to be so productive despite losing Max Unger, Michael Bowie and James Carpenter at different times in the game.  In addition to the effectiveness of the running game, I have to applaud Russell Wilson for fighting through another pretty horrific half of football to lead the team to victory.  Wilson threw for 189 yards in the second half and overtime and continued to keep ticking even after taking a few good shots from Tampa Bay.  Although Wilson got beat up a little, he was never sacked and he performed extremely well when the Bucs brought pressure.  According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson threw both of his touchdown passes when he was under pressure and posted a 152.1 QB rating on 10 attempts when he was blitzed.  After being completely unable to generate any semblance of offense against the St. Louis pressure last week, it was a breath of fresh air to see Wilson, his offensive line and his receivers react much better to the Tampa pressure.  While the two turnovers were disturbing, it was a good sign to see the offense rebound, which is something we cannot say about the defense.

2. Winning is king, but how you win is important too.

Let me get this out of the way first: any win in the NFL is a good win.  This cliché is the only thing that has Seattle fans sleeping soundly at night.  Personally, I believe the 12^th Man is living in a fantasy land.  In the real world, while results are extremely important, how one obtains his or her results is important in its own right.  Let me illustrate with an example.  Let’s say we have a rich person, who makes a substantial donation to your favorite charity.  On the surface, everyone would applaud this person for their generosity.  However, what if the person amassed their fortune, from which the donation was made, by employing small children in sweatshops to produce their products?  Would we still applaud this person?  Absolutely not.  Applying this concept to the Seahawks, we can’t focus blindly on the wins and ignore the troubling signs that linger beneath the surface.  Seattle has spent the better part of the 2013 season struggling in one or more of the five phases of football.  While Seattle fans should be ecstatic that their team is 8-1 despite all of its issues, no one would dispute that enough is enough.  There is no excuse for gaining just 135 yards of total offense against a St. Louis team that had given up an average of 373 yards to its first seven opponents.  There is no excuse for allowing 405 yards rushing to two teams that were averaging 70.6 and 93.6 yards rushing before playing Seattle.  There is no excuse for falling behind by 21 points to a winless team at home.  While I would be the first to admit that Seattle seems to have an extra helping of grit and heart, I think it is well past time for them to start exhibiting another sign of a champion: the killer instinct to jump all over an inferior opponent and not let them breathe for 60 minutes. 

3. Golden Tate is the definition of a playmaker.

When Tate was taken in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft, the two things that got Seattle fans excited were the ball skills and ability to run after the catch that he exhibited at Notre Dame.  After some initial growing pains, including the infamous Donut-gate during his rookie season, Tate started to consistently demonstrate these skills at the professional level at the end of last season.  He hasn’t quite taken the next step this year, but he has come up big for Seattle over the last three weeks.  In Week 7, he averaged a season-high 19.3 yards per catch and had a punt return for a touchdown called back due to a penalty.  The following week, he caught two touchdown passes against the Rams, including the biggest play of the game when he adjusted his route and out-jumped the St. Louis defender for a catch that resulted in an 80-yard touchdown.  This week, he had a highlight reel 71-yard punt return that led to a field goal and reenergized his team and the hometown fans.  When Percy Harvin returns to the line-up, Seattle will have two guys that have the running ability of a tailback and explosiveness to score from any spot on the field.  Until that time, Tate has to keep making an impact on the offense because he is the most dynamic offensive player on the active roster.

3 Questions

1. When will the opening day offensive line be back together?

The Seahawks have been playing without their starting right and left tackles for several weeks.  The injuries have forced other linemen to play out of position (McQuiston) and to play before they were ready (Bowie).  The result has been an onslaught of pressure that has battered and bruised quarterback Russell Wilson for the better part of nine weeks.  It has been well-documented that Wilson leads the NFL in the percentage of dropbacks that he has been under duress.  With both Wilson and Coach Pete Carroll acknowledging that the quarterback was pretty beat up after the Tampa Bay game, it seemed like a good opportunity to look into my crystal ball to determine when the opening day offensive line would be back together.  According to Coach Carroll, Brenno Giacomini will start to practice but he will not be available this weekend in Atlanta.  The same goes for Russell Okung, who can't return to the field until November 17th according to NFL rules.  Based on your perception of how full the glass is, Carroll has either been pessimistic or just conservative about Giacomini's status.  He has never provided anything resembling a specific timeframe for his return.  It just feels a little more real that Okung actually plays against the Vikings in two weeks.  However, doesn't feel like a foregone conclusion that Seattle will wait until after the bye week to activate their two tackles.  Unless they blow the game in Atlanta, there doesn't feel like any urgency to rush them back for a very winnable game against Minnesota.  Complicating matters further is the unknown status of Max Unger for the upcoming game against the Falcons.  Unger left the game this past weekend with "concussion-like symptoms," which means that his ability to play in week 10 is seriously in jeopardy in my opinion.  If we were talking 3-4 years ago, then I could see Unger faking his way back onto the field even if his symptoms hadn't subsided, but in the day and age of player lawsuits and unflattering documentaries it seems unavoidable that he misses at least one game.  Taking into account the known information, I'm extremely skeptical that the starting offensive line, as envisioned by the Seattle coaching staff, will not be together again until Week 13 against the New Orleans Saints.

2. Is Russell Wilson starting to feel the collective effect of all the abuse?

Wilson has been sacked an average of three times per game and has been under more pressure than any other quarterback in the NFL.  In other words, no other QB has been hit as many times as Wilson has this year.  He has also run the ball 67 times, which has exposed him to another level of hits that most signal callers don't endure.  The pounding that he has absorbed has gotten so bad that Carroll and Wilson were forced to address it after the game.  According to Carroll, Wilson was "banged up" after the game.  Wilson admitted after the game that he "got hit pretty good a couple of times."  Although everyone is saying the right things, one cannot help but think that the collective effect of all of these shots is going to bite the Seahawks at some point.  We have seen quarterback injuries throughout the league, including Aaron Rodgers on Monday night, and it feels like Seattle is playing with fire.  Seattle fans love Tarvaris Jackson, but no one wants to see him playing with the outcome in doubt.  It is common knowledge that NFL quarterbacks have to be able to keep their eyes downfield, while knowing that they may take a big shot for the sake of a completion.  However, the defense wins when the quarterback starts to drop his eye level to account for the blitz.  Although Wilson is an extremely tough individual, how much longer until the abuse starts to affect the way he plays?

3. Do you consider the Seattle defense elite?

My short answer is no.  They have a long way to go to elevate themselves to the elite category.  The best defenses in the NFL are ones that play consistently.  No rational football fan can say that the Seattle defense is consistent.  Perhaps, they are consistent at being inconsistent.  They certainly were very sound, if not dominant, the first three weeks of the season.  They held their first three opponents to an average of 242 total yards and forced 10 turnovers.  They followed the strong start with an atrocious first half against Houston and a lackluster second half against Indianapolis.  They were fortunate to split these two games, but the cracks in the facade were already starting to show.  However, the team pulled it together for back-to-back strong outings against Tennessee and Arizona.  Unfortunately, a two-game trend of extremely poor discipline by its run defense has once again resurrected the questions about the Seattle defense.  An elite defense would have never allowed two mediocre teams like the Rams and the Bucs to run over them for 200 yards rushing each.  Seattle certainly has all of the components to be one of the best, but let's shelve all of that talk until they put together a stretch of games where they play up to their potential instead of down to their opponent.  While we are at it, let's dial down the on-the-field antics and all of the Legion of Boom nonsense until they actually hold someone to less than 200 yards rushing.

3 Worries

1. Run defense

I don't want to push the panic button, but the Seattle run defense has me more concerned than the protection issues on offense.  The reason for my concern is that the Seattle defense is completely healthy.  They can't use the excuse of missing players to explain away 405 yards rushing over the last two games.  They have allowed 5.4 yards per carry to two teams that had pretty much announced to the entire football world that they were going to commit to running the football.  The Rams wanted to protect their back-up quarterback and they achieved their goal by repeatedly gashing the Seahawks with Zac Stacy.  The Bucs wanted to reduce the number of attempts for their rookie quarterback and Seattle seemed defenseless to stop them.  It is bad when you can't stop the run, but it is embarrassing when you know it's coming and you still can't do anything about it.  Seattle has to figure out a fix for their gap integrity in the run game because whatever they did to prepare for Tampa Bay obviously didn't work.  If they allow another big running day to the Falcons, then the situation is going to be in full crisis mode regardless of whether they win or not.

2. Red Zone play-calling

The big controversy over the last two weeks has been the lack of carries for Marshawn Lynch in the red zone.  In their one trip into the red zone against St. Louis, Russell Wilson kept the ball twice for -1 yards and then threw a touchdown pass to Golden Tate.  The howls of "Just give the ball to the Beast" could be heard throughout the Great Northwest.  The frustration escalated this week when Seattle threw the ball on a first down from the three-yard line instead of running the ball with Lynch.  It obviously didn't help that the play resulted in an interception.  While we can debate until the cows come home about whether the decision to pass inside the five-yard line is a good one or not, it was made pretty clear by Coach Carroll that Wilson's decisions to keep the ball against the Rams were probably mistakes.  Ultimately, Seattle has been pretty balanced in the red zone.  Out of 69 red zone plays, Seattle has run 28 times with hand-offs to Lynch, passed 32 times, and scrambled or used designed runs nine times with Wilson.  I'm sure that a large percentage of the fan base would prefer to have the red zone play-calling heavily weighted towards running the ball with the Beast, but keep in mind that Lynch has run for zero or negative yards on 32% of his attempts inside the 20-yard line.  Perhaps, this is one of the reasons why Darrell Bevell is putting the ball in Wilson's hands more often in the scoring zone.

3. Added degree of difficulty of Seattle’s season

The Seahawks have made the already difficult task of playing professional football even more onerous by the way they have played this season.  Outside of two blowouts (San Francisco & Jacksonville) and one game they controlled pretty much throughout (Arizona), Seattle has had to grind it out in every other game.  They played an extremely physical game with Carolina to open the season.  They've had to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit at Houston and a 21-point first half deficit to Tampa Bay at home.  They had to survive a 96-yard drive by St. Louis that included stoning the Rams on two plays from the Seattle one-yard line.  Let's not forget that they had to exert a lot more energy than anyone expected to dispatch the Tennessee Titans playing with a back-up quarterback.  All of this hard work begs the question of how much will they have left in the tank for the stretch run and the playoffs.  We already know that San Francisco is not going to let them run away with the NFC West and the Saints will be pushing them for NFC supremacy as well, so there likely won't be any clinching of the conference's best record until the final weekend of the season.  It just feels like Seattle needs to start winning more easily before they are a completely broken team and are able to summon the effort required to win games in the playoffs.