Week Six Picks

Here are my picks for Week 6 (home team in CAPS):

BEARS over Giants
Bengals over BILLS
BROWNS over Lions
CHIEFS over Raiders
VIKINGS over Panthers
JETS over Steelers
Eagles over BUCCANEERS
Packers over RAVENS
TEXANS over Rams
BRONCOS over Jaguars
Saints over PATRIOTS
49ERS over Cardinals
COWBOYS over Redskins
Colts over CHARGERS
SEAHAWKS over Titans

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 51-26

Quick Hits - Week Five

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

New Orleans 26 - Chicago 18
This was an impressive victory for the Saints.  Most of the remaining skeptics pointed to the Saints' relatively weak schedule and their less than impressive victory, on the road, over Tampa Bay as reasons to doubt their undefeated start.  After beating the Bears on the road, the skeptics don't really have much ammunition remaining to not believe that the Saints are for real.  New Orleans won this game by playing stout defense in the first half (forced 4 punts and one turnover) to build a 20-7 lead and then using a ball control offense in the second half to play keep away from the Bears (only 3 2nd half possessions for the Bears).  This game is further proof that the Saints have their most balanced team since Drew Brees arrived in town.  They still have enough playmakers on offense to win a shootout, but they now have a defense that can win a grinder as well.

Cincinnati 13 - New England 6
The Bengals are one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL right now.  In the last three weeks, they have beaten Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, but in the middle they lost to Brian Hoyer.  The major reason for the up-and-down play has been inconsistency on offense, especially at the quarterback position.  Andy Dalton still hasn't taken the necessary steps forward that will elevate the Bengals from a fringe playoff contender to a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  This team has the talent on offense and defense to go deep into the playoffs, but the play at quarterback is holding them back.

Green Bay 22 - Detroit 9
The Lions lost this game before they even stepped on the field due to the last minute scratch of Megatron from the active line-up.  It was the first time in Matthew Stafford's five-year career that he played without the services of one of the most imposing wide receivers in the NFL.  Stafford better hope that Megatron's absence was a one-week deal because the Lions' offense looks completely different without him putting pressure on opposing defenses.  With Nate Burleson also out due to injury, it appeared to me that Stafford didn't really trust the receivers at his disposable, which led to him holding the football longer than planned and contributed to the five sacks registered by the Packers.  Megatron is a once in a lifetime talent, but the Detroit coaching staff has to figure out a way to still be a competent offense when he is either limited by the defensive scheme or unavailable entirely.

Kansas City 26 - Tennessee 17
It is too bad that Jake Locker was hurt last week because this match-up would have been a lot more entertaining had he been in the line-up.  Unfortunately, for Titans' fans, they can expect to see more putrid displays of football over the next few weeks as Locker recovers from a hip injury.  The big takeaway is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not capable of being a consistent starting quarterback in the NFL.  He was unable to sustain drives primarily due to 20 incompletions as well as the first two interceptions thrown by a Titans' QB this season.  Sunday marked the sixth time in his last seven starts that he failed to complete at least 60% of his attempts.  Now he has to go on the road to face the Seahawks, which forced him into three turnovers and a 55% completion rate last season.  The Titans' promising season is quickly going down the drain.  The only hope is that there is a enough time for Locker to save the day when he gets healthy.

St. Louis 34 - Jacksonville 20
The Jaguars are the NFL's version of Stuart Smalley.  Every team that plays them is good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like them.  The Rams were fresh off three consecutive beatings, but they were feeling a lot better about themselves after easily dispatching the worst team in the AFC.  They hadn't been able to run the football the entire season, but they racked up over 140 yards rushing, which doubled their next best output of the year.  Their much maligned defense forced a season high three turnovers.  The Rams will come back to Earth pretty quickly, but for one week they can feel like their season is completely hopeless.

Baltimore 26 - Miami 23
Another mediocre performance by Joe Flacco gets rewarded with a victory because the Miami Dolphins were somehow more incompetent than the Ravens.  I don't understand how the Dolphins' coaching staff can justify running the football only 11 times when the game was either tied or within one score until early in the fourth quarter.  I would agree that they haven't been a good running team all year, but only nine carries for your two running backs doesn't seem sufficient.  The result was Ryan Tannehill being asked to do too much, which led to a season high 19 incompletions and gave the Ravens ample opportunities to apply pressure. Ultimately, the last two weeks have exposed the Dolphins' 3-0 start to the light of day.  When they are not getting all of the breaks, they don't do anything well enough to win consistently.  They had a great start, but the reality is that they are much closer to being a .500 team than being a team that wins 11 or 12 games.

Philadelphia 36 - NY Giants 21
The litany of woes for the Giants is unbelievable.  They have the worst rushing offense in the NFL.  They are allowing the most points per game of any defense.  They have an NFL-worst turnover differential of -13. They have thrown a league-leading 13 interceptions.  They just earned the ignominious honor of being the second team in NFL history to start the season with five consecutive games allowing more than 30 points and committing at least three turnovers.  They are the worst team in the NFC and are giving Jacksonville a run for their money for the title of being the worst team in the entire league.  I would actually give the Giants the edge because the Jags don't have a two-time Super Bowl MVP playing quarterback for them.

Arizona 22 - Carolina 6
Ron Rivera is the anti-Andy Reid.  Despite what fans in Philadelphia would tell you, Reid was actually a pretty decent football coach.  His coaching talent was most pronounced after bye weeks when the Eagles had a 13-1 record following a week off.  Unfortunately, Rivera is doing his best to prove that he is no Andy Reid and that he deserves to get fired.  After the loss to Arizona, the Panthers fell to 0-3 under Rivera after a bye week.  More damning is the fact that the Panthers have been outscored by an average of 16 points in those three games.  Let me get this straight!  Rivera gets extra time to prepare his team and they are even less competitive than they are on a week to week basis.  I would guess that the calls for Rivera's head on a platter have renewed with vigor.

Denver 51 - Dallas 48
The pinnacle of an exciting weekend of football was this shoot out between the Broncos and Cowboys in the Palace in Dallas.  Both quarterbacks posted Total QBRs over 90, which has happened only once prior since 2006.  While Romo pleased his fantasy owners by becoming the fifth quarterback to throw for over 500 yards and five touchdowns, Manning was able to escape with the victory thanks to tremendous clock management at the end of the game.  Perhaps unfairly, Romo's outstanding performance was spoiled by a fourth quarter interception that set up the Broncos deep in Dallas territory and eventually led to the game-winning field goal from Matt Prater.  It was the 23rd fourth quarter interception of Romo's career and the Cowboys have lost eight straight games in which he has thrown a pick in the final quarter.  It was another failure for Romo's critics to add to their quivers.  Although he has outstanding statistics and has largely been a successful quarterback, Romo is largely defined by what he has failed to do rather than what he has done.

San Francisco 34 - Houston 3
This game was the opposite of the Denver and Dallas barn-burner.  The biggest blowout of the weekend might also be one of the last stands for Matt Schaub as the starting quarterback for the Texans.  He threw a pick-six for an NFL record fourth consecutive game and the rout was on.  Lost in all of the talk about Schaub's future was the putrid passing performance from Colin Kaepernick.  If you take away his 64-yard touchdown pass to Vernon Davis, Kaepernick had only five completions for 49 yards.  He has now completed less than 50% of his attempts three different times this season and has completed more than 15 passes just once.  In addition, he is not running effectively either.  He has run for more than 22 yards just once.  The Niners are winning in spite of his performance, but they won't be making a second consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl if he doesn't start to turn things around.

Oakland 27 - San Diego 17
Maybe just maybe, Terrelle Pryor is the quarterback of the future for the Oakland Raiders.  If nothing else, he is definitely their quarterback for now because they dumped Matt Flynn on the waiver wire after one uninspiring start.  However, I really believe that Pryor has a chance to succeed in the East Bay.  He definitely has all of the physical talent to make plays at the quarterback position.  There were countless times on Sunday evening when Pryor turned a sure sack into a positive play.  In even better news Oakland fans, it looks like he is developing as a pocket passer as well.  According to ESPN Stats & Info, Pryor has completed 72.7% of his passes from inside the pocket, which is the fourth best number in the NFL and better than Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers.

NY Jets 30 - Atlanta 28
Put a fork in the Falcons because they are done.  In order to keep hope alive for this season, they had to beat the Jets at home, but Geno Smith played one of the best road games any rookie has every played leading New York to a walk-off victory in the Georgia Dome.  With Roddy White and Steven Jackson already ailing, the news got even worse for the Atlanta offense on Tuesday as word got out that star receiver Julio Jones might miss the rest of the season due to a foot injury.  With all of injuries and adversity swirling around the team, I don't see how they can get things together quickly enough to make a playoff run.  The two bigger questions are related to the future of Mike Smith and Tony Gonzalez.  Will the season get so bad that Falcons' management would consider parting ways with Smith?  Will they do Gonzalez a solid and ship him to a contender?  The Falcons have enjoyed a lot of success under Smith and Matt Ryan, but they will be getting a taste of how the other side lives this year.

Week Five Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: The Giants joined the 1954 Cardinals as the only teams in NFL history to start a season with five straight games allowing at least 30 points and committing at least three turnovers.

Stat of the Week no. 2: Brandon Marshall's five targets on Sunday accounted for only 15% of the Bears' pass attempts, the lowest percentage since Marshall joined the team.  The Bears are now 0-4 when Marshall accounts for fewer than 20% of the team's targets.

Stat of the Week no. 3: 54 games this season were within 7 points in the 4th quarter, which is the most in NFL history through five weeks.

Stat of the Week no. 4: Geno Smith is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to go on the road and throw 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and complete 80% of attempts.

Stat of the Week no. 5: Tony Romo is the 5th QB to throw for at least 500 yards and 5 TDs in a game (Norm Van Brocklin, Y.A. Tittle, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub).

Week Five - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

Three Facts

 

1. The Seahawks need Russell Wilson to run.

Even when healthy, the Seattle offensive line has struggled at times to pass protect, but the problem has reached an epidemic level the last two weeks.  It would be ridiculous to expect the status quo when you are missing three starters across the front line, so Wilson has had to do some of the best improvisation of his short NFL career over the last two weeks.  Against Houston, he scrambled his way to roughly 70 yards in the second half, which was one of the major reasons that the Seahawks were able to escape with an overtime victory.  On Sunday, Wilson set a career-high with 102 yards rushing, but the Hawks were unable to secure a second consecutive come-from-behind win.  Ultimately, Seattle would have lost both games had Wilson decided to win from the pocket rather than using his legs.  The offensive line is not providing the necessary time for routes to develop downfield and the Hawks lack top tier wide receiving talent that can consistently create separation from defenders.  Until the line gets healthy, Wilson is going to have to use his feet to move the chains.  My preference would be for Darrell Bevell to build in a lot of plays that have a run/pass option, which is one of the reasons that I did not care for the play call on third-and-short on the second to last possession when the play called for Wilson to get the first down with his legs but didn’t provide any pass option. 

 

2. The hardest part of the schedule is behind Seattle.

The Seahawks have just completed the most difficult part of their schedule with a 4-1 record and they were very close to being undefeated.  I would argue that they played three of their four hardest road games during this stretch of the schedule.  They faced three of the top five ranked defenses in the NFL (Houston, Carolina, and San Francisco).  They faced three of the top 12 stingiest defenses in the NFL in terms of points allowed.  Right now, there next toughest game is a road trip to Atlanta and that assumes that the Falcons regain their offensive swagger and decide to start playing competently on defense.  If the Falcons continue to stumble, then the Hawks don’t face a really tough stretch until they play New Orleans at home and San Francisco on the road in back-to-back weeks.  With reinforcements looming in the form of Russell Okung, Brenno Giacomini, and Percy Harvin, the Hawks figure to get healthier as the season progresses, but it could all be for naught if they can’t tighten up some of the things that killed them in Indy. 

 

3. Jermaine Kearse needs more of a role in the offense.

In his limited playing time, Kearse has made his presence felt with two touchdown receptions and a punt block.  In my opinion, he needs more opportunities to make an impact especially when the Artist Formally Known as Sidney Rice has made virtually no impact in games when the opponent didn’t have a jaguar on its helmet.  Kearse is not going to suddenly morph into an elite wide receiver, but his better than average ball skills is what this offense needs because of its inability to consistently beat man coverage one-on-one.  Theoretically, Rice provides a similar skill set, but something just doesn’t seem right with him at the moment.  Since they cut Stephen Williams and until Percy Harvin become active, I think that Kearse can provide a spark to the offense.

 

Three Questions

1. Who kidnapped Sidney Rice?

Does anyone remember when Rice had over 1,300 yards receiving for Minnesota?  At the time, it appeared that Rice was on the verge of establishing himself as a premier receiving threat.  Since then, he has missed a lot of football games and produced very few big moments.  Nevertheless, he had a fairly productive 2012 season especially when you consider that the Seahawks threw the ball less than most teams in the NFL.  Unfortunately, he has not been able to carry it over to 2013.  Outside of a five reception, 79-yard, and two touchdown game against Jacksonville, he has only five other catches for 67 yards.  With the tight ends not being a big part of the offense, Rice is the big body that is missing from the game plan.  At his best, he has the ability to make a living in the middle of the field, outwork cornerbacks for deep balls, and be a force in the red zone.  Sadly, he is not doing any of these things, which is one of the reasons that the passing game has yet to hit its stride.  Maybe his ailing knees need another dose of the latest German stem cell technology.  Regardless, I’m just pleading with whoever kidnapped the real Sidney Rice to bring him back as soon as possible.

 

2. When can we expect to see Percy Harvin?

Back in early September, Harvin tweeted that the 12^th Man should “keep an eye on week 7.” More than a month later, he announced on Twitter that he was “back and ready.”  I’m sure his latest missive increased the collective blood pressure of the 12^th Man, but the reality is that he can’t even practice with the team until being taken off the PUP list after week six.  With that as the back drop, when will he play his first game in a Seattle uniform?  I would be absolutely flabbergasted if he was on the active roster for the week seven tilt against Arizona.  Frankly, it would be negligent for the team to put him out there after having only one week of practice.  It would actually be less than one week because it is a Thursday Night game.  If he gets taken off the PUP list on schedule, then I would look to the November 3^rd home game against Tampa Bay as a much more likely start date for the Percy Harvin era in Seattle.

 

3. Can the offensive line hold the fort?

My answer is yes and it goes back to the quality of opponents they will be facing as opposed to the ones they have already faced.  Tennessee certainly has an up-and-coming defense and Seattle fans are well aware of the capability of the St. Louis front seven, but neither of those teams have difference-makers like J.J. Watt and Robert Mathis.  Not to mention all of the other talent on the Houston and Indianapolis defenses.  Also, let’s not forget that Max Unger is expected back this week, which should help fortify the line.  Ultimately, the Seahawks have to put their offensive line in the best position to be successful, which means that they have to keep their commitment to the running game and schematically create ways to generate yards in the passing game while keeping Wilson upright.

 

Three Worries

 

1. Third Down (In)efficiency

The offense did not do a good job sustaining drives against the Colts.  The biggest reason was that they only converted two out of 12 third down opportunities, which led to a slew of field goals rather than touchdowns.  It was their worst effort on third down of the season, but it is far from an isolated problem.  After five weeks, the Hawks are the 28^th ranked offense on third down conversions, which demonstrates that this has been a problem area the entire year.  It is also a major contributor to their mediocre ability to convert red zone possessions into touchdowns, which has basically been a 50-50 proposition.  Seattle has to get better in this area or it is going to find itself in close games week in and week out.  Defensively, the Hawks have been pretty effective at getting off the field on third down except on Sunday.  The Colts converted nearly 59% of their third down opportunities.  Most importantly, they converted five out of six chances in the second half, when it seemed that the Seattle defense was on the field the entire half.  I’m willing to write it off as an aberration considering how good Indy has been on third down all season, but it is definitely something to monitor. 

 

2. Penalties

Seattle had seven penalties for 85 yards on Sunday.  It marks the fourth time this season that they have had at least seven penalties.  The penalties have been an issue all year long but they were especially brutal against the Colts.  On a 3^rd-and-22 in the second quarter, Brandon Browner was flagged for a 39-yard pass interference penalty, which gave Indianapolis new life and led to a field goal.  On the subsequent Seattle possession, a Wilson to Baldwin 18-yard connection was wiped out because J.R. Sweezy was flagged for being an ineligible player downfield.   This penalty cost Seattle at least three points prior to halftime.  In a tight game, these kinds of swings due to penalties are huge.  In the fourth quarter, a Richard Sherman pass interference penalty kept another Indy drive alive, which ultimately ended in the go-ahead touchdown.  I’m fully aware that the Seahawks’ physical style of play, especially at the cornerback position, is going to yield its fair share of penalties, but Seattle is going to have to figure out a way to limit the damage.

 

3. Road Defense

In the first three weeks of the season, the Seattle defense was fairly dominant and sat at the top of many statistical categories.  Unfortunately, that same defense has only showed up for 30 minutes each of the last two weeks.  Last week, the Legion of Boom was completely undressed by Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans in the first half.  The only things that limited the damage were a couple of red zone stops.  In the second half, the vaunted Seattle defense made an appearance and led the team to its greatest comeback in its history.  The strong closing performance in H-Town carried over to Indy as the Hawks played a quality first half on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, two big plays: a blocked field goal returned for touchdown and a 73-yard touchdown to T.Y. Hilton on a blown coverage kept the Colts in the game.  However, the second half looked eerily reminiscent to the first half in Houston.  The Hawks were completely outclassed by the Indianapolis offense, which scored touchdowns on two long drives and added a field goal for good measure.  I thought the Hawks looked gassed in the fourth quarter.  I was concerned with how much they would have left in the tank after last week’s grinder and I think the second half showed that they didn’t have very much.  Fortunately, this week’s home game will allow the defense to get its swagger back, but they still have to figure out how to play consistently away from Century Link.

Week Five Picks

Here are my picks for Week 5 (home team in CAPS):

BROWNS over Bills

Saints over BEARS
BENGALS over Patriots
PACKERS over Lions
Chiefs over TITANS
RAMS over Jaguars
DOLPHINS over Ravens
Eagles over GIANTS
Panthers over CARDINALS
Broncos over COWBOYS
49ERS over Texans
Chargers over RAIDERS
FALCONS over Jets
Seahawks over COLTS

Last Week: 7-8

Overall: 42-21

Three Reasons Why Cleveland Wins Their Third Consecutive Game

Parity is a word that gets thrown around a lot related to the National Football League.  Fans hold onto to this word for dear life because it is the only thing that keeps some of them coming back year after year.  They want to believe nothing more than this will be the year that their favorite team wins their division and makes a run to the Super Bowl.  In fact, there is currently a 10-year run of last place teams in one season winning their divisions the following season.  The NFL suits on Park Avenue love it that the “any given year” and “any given Sunday” ideas are pervasive throughout the league.  It’s one of the many reasons why professional football is the king of all sports in the United States.  Unfortunately, the rising tide has not lifted all boats.  Since returning to Cleveland in 1999, the Browns have not really benefited from the parity that has given nearly every other team a moment or two in the spotlight.  Cleveland is one of only two teams (Detroit) to have double digit seasons of losing 10-plus games.  However, the Lions have still managed to make the playoffs twice – most recently after the 2011 season – while the Browns are working on a 10-year streak without making the postseason.  Will 2013 be the year that Cleveland breaks the streak?  Can they make it 11 consecutive years that a team has gone from worst to first?  Both of these questions will be answered definitively over the next 13 weeks, but the state of the AFC North gives them their best chance in years to answer both questions in the affirmative.  Their quest to win the division continues with a Thursday night match-up with the Buffalo Bills.  Here are three reasons that I believe the Browns will win the game and stay in first place.

 

The Browns defense is the most underrated unit in the league.

The Browns have been able to scratch out a 2-2 start because their defense has played like one of the better units in the league despite lacking the fanfare.  They are in the top 10 in nearly every significant defensive category.  Their most impressive statistic is that they are leading the NFL in yards/carry allowed (2.9 yds/carry), which will be critical to continue against the two-headed rushing attack of the Bills.  When Buffalo inevitably turns to the pass, the Browns will be able to unleash a pass defense that allows the second lowest yards per attempt and a pass rush that has accumulated 14 sacks in the first four games.  Last week, the Browns defense snuffed out a significantly more talented offense for the Cincinnati Bengals, so I don’t think they will have any trouble putting the clamps on the Bills.

 

Since Brian Hoyer became the starter, the Browns finally have the look of a competent offense.

Nearly across the board, the Browns have improved on offense since Brian Hoyer took over at quarterback and Trent Richardson was traded to Indianapolis.  When the trade was announced, the popular view was that Cleveland was throwing in the towel on the 2013 season in an attempt to improve their draft position.  However, the emergence of Hoyer, along with the return of the talented Josh Gordon from suspension, has transformed the Browns offense.  With Gordon’s field-stretching speed and big play ability, the Browns have been able to make more chunk plays, which has improved their yards per attempt and yards per play over the first two weeks.  In addition, Hoyer has developed a nearly telepathic connection with Jordan Cameron in the red zone, which has made Cameron the best red zone tight end not named Jimmy Graham.  The improvement of the offense coupled with the fact that the Bills are not very good on defense will help the Browns play their most efficient and explosive offense of the season.

 

The Dawg Pound will make its presence felt.

The City of Cleveland has to be one of the most tortured sports towns in America.  The first incarnation of the Browns nearly made it to the mountain top only to be cut down by “The Drive” and “The Fumble.”  Since they have come back, the quality of play has been a combination of a train wreck and a murder scene.  Cleveland fans have had to deal with Lebron James taking his talents to South Beach and a World Series title drought that stretches back to 1948.  They just suffered through another kick in the balls last night as the Indians lost a wild card game to the Tampa Bay Rays despite the fact that the Rays played on Monday and the Indians were riding a 10-game winning streak into the playoffs.  I think it is safe to say that the Dawg Pound and its affiliates are going to be lathered up to release its collective frustrations on the visiting Bills.  I think Cleveland fans are smart enough to understand that the AFC North is there for the taking for the first time in forever and they can’t allow winnable home games to escape them.  For all of these reasons, the Browns will get an emotional boost from playing at home.

Quick Hits - Week Four

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Buffalo 23 - Baltimore 20
Anyone who has read my blog knows that I'm not a member of the Joe Flacco Fan Club.  I give him the utmost respect and credit for his unbelievable playoff performance last season, but a Super Bowl ring doesn't immediately mean that he is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.  I've always been of the opinion that he needs to earn his place in the quarterback hierarchy by performing at a reasonably high level on a week to week basis.  He hasn't done anything this year to change my opinion.  According to ESPN Stats and Info, Flacco has thrown seven interceptions and posted a total QBR of 35.7.  For the purpose of comparison, Peyton Manning has posted a total QBR of 80+ in six consecutive regular season games, which is the longest such streak for any QB in the last eight seasons.  Flacco apologists would point to the Anquan Boldin trade and injuries to Dennis Pitta and Ray Rice as reasons why he has been unable to build on the success he had in last year's playoffs.  In response, I would point to Tom Brady, who has his team at 4-0 despite playing with a bunch of rookies, free agents, and cast-offs at wide receiver and running back.  Flacco is definitely a big-game quarterback, but he is neither a consistent nor an elite one.

Cleveland 17 - Cincinnati 6
The Browns sure have a funny way of throwing in the towel.  After many observers, including me, assumed that they were waving the white flag after trading Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts, the Browns have gone out and won two games in a row.  Their latest victory was a methodical dismembering of the Cincinnati Bengals led by their surprising defense and an efficient performance by Brian Hoyer.  Their defense is allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry and they have done a great job of getting after the quarterback.  More importantly, the Browns may just have found their starting quarterback for at least the remainder of the 2013 season.  Hoyer has appeared to have Wally Pipped Brandon Weeden after winning his first two starts in a Cleveland uniform.  I'm sure he received a graduate-level education about taking advantage of opportunities from his time around Tom Brady.  The offense, which looked utterly incompetent with Weeden at the controls, has been surprisingly productive with the career back-up running the show.  With a win on Thursday night and a Baltimore loss over the weekend, the Browns will find themselves at the top of the AFC North.

Detroit 40 - Chicago 32
Over the last few years, the fortunes of the Chicago Bears have been entirely dependent on which version of their starting quarterback shows up on game day.  If they got the good Jay Cutler, then the Bears were one of the toughest teams to beat because Cutler has as much pure talent as any quarterback in the NFL. Unfortunately, when the bad Cutler showed, which is far too frequently for the tastes of many Chicago fans, the Bears could be easily beaten.  For most of the 2013 season, Chicago has been treated to the Mr. Hyde version of Jay Cutler.  He had kept his turnover issues to a minimum and, most importantly, his offensive line was providing protection that heretofore had been unheard of in the Windy City.  However, the train went way off the tracks against the Lions.  Cutler was under constant pressure from the Detroit front seven, which led to four total turnovers and ultimately a Chicago loss.  If it hadn't been for two garbage time touchdown passes, the overall numbers for Cutler would have been truly ghastly.  If the Bears have any chance of returning to the NFC playoffs, they have to find the good Cutler as soon as possible.

Kansas City 31 - New York Giants 7
The Chiefs are the biggest surprise of the first quarter of the NFL season.  After destroying the Giants, they became the second team in NFL history to start a season 4-0 following a season when they won two or fewer games.  They have been successful in 2013 because their defense was playing at a high level and their offense had played efficient, mistake-free football.  Although they suffered their first three turnovers of the season, Kansas City got another strong effort from their defense and their first big contribution from the special teams area.  With KC clinging to a 10-7 lead late in the third quarter, Dexter McCluster fielded a New York punt at his own 11-yard line and proceeded to weave his way through the Giants' punt coverage team for a touchdown that proved to be the beginning of the end for the G-Men.  In my opinion, the Chiefs are clearly the second best team in the AFC.  If there offense can take a step or two forward and they continue to hold steady with the contributions they are getting from the other two areas, then they pose the greatest threat to the Denver Broncos.

Minnesota 34 - Pittsburgh 27
It is quite amazing how far the Steelers have fallen.  Since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2010 season, Pittsburgh lost in the Wild Card round to Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos in 2011, missed the playoffs in 2012, and have started the 2013 season with four straight losses.  They are a team that is unrecognizable to those of us that have grown up on the Steelers tradition of tough defense and a smash mouth running game.  Overall, the Dick LeBeau-led defense is ranked the 11th best unit in the NFL, but a deeper look indicates that there are significant problems.  First of all, they are the 29th best run defense and they have already allowed six rushing touchdowns.  For perspective, the Steelers haven't finished outside the top ten in run defense since 2003 and the most rushing TDs they have allowed during the same period was 10. Secondly, they are allowing over 27 points per game, which is the most they have allowed since at least 2002.  Finally, the Blitzburgh defense, so well known for the innovative zone blitz scheme, has only sacked the quarterback four times in 2013, which has resulted in opposing quarterbacks posting a 91.4 QB rating. Without significant improvement, the Steelers will be hard pressed to win more than three or four games this year.

Arizona 13 - Tampa Bay 10
The daily drama in Tampa is bordering on the absurd.  This kind of ridiculousness is the type of situation that leads to wholesale housecleaning.  It is already crystal clear that Josh Freeman will soon no longer be affiliated with the organization, but if the rest of the "leaders" don't get things moving in the right direction then the GM, head coach, and coaching staff will probably be unemployed by the end of the season.  I honestly don't understand the level of animosity between the coaching staff and the former starting quarterback.  It's fine if Coach Schiano wants to move Freeman out so that his draft pick, Mike Glennon, can get a chance to lead the team.  When there is a regime change, the holdovers are always aware that they might not fit nicely into the plans of the new folks running the team.  However, I just don't agree with the immature and dishonest way that Schiano went about undermining Freeman's place on the team.  If Glennon was his guy, then he should have started him from day one instead of giving half-hearted votes of confidence to Freeman. Keep in mind that Freeman hasn't been above reproach either.  Missing team photos and demanding trades when the going gets tough is not the best way to generate interest from the other 31 teams.  Regardless of Freeman's actions, he doesn't deserve to have his privacy violated when he was falsely (apparently) accused of being in the NFL drug program for failing a test.  I think Freeman has effectively killed his trade value, but he can rest assured that he will still get paid after the Bucs cut him in the next week or two.  The fate of Greg Schiano will be determined by the team's performance on the field, but it doesn't look good when the Denver Broncos are averaging more points than the Bucs have scored in total.

Indianapolis 37 - Jacksonville 3
Pretty simple, the Colts are good and the Jags are bad.  The only thing left to wonder about the Jacksonville season is whether they will join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams in NFL history to finish a season 0-16.

Tennessee 38 - New York Jets
The Titans appeared to have a good thing going until Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples sent Jake Locker to the hospital with a double dose of late hits.  Up to that point, Locker had thrown three touchdown passes and the Titans were well on their way to a blow out victory over the Jets.  Unfortunately, he finished the day at a Nashville hospital being evaluated for a potentially season-ending injury.  The silver lining is that Locker's hip injury turned out to be significant enough for him to be placed on the IR - Designated to Return list, but not severe enough to end his 2013 season.  With Locker on the shelf, the Titans are going to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played his way out of favor in Buffalo because he couldn't stop throwing the football to the other team.  It's my prediction that the Titans' run as the last NFL team to commit a turnover this year will end when Kansas City pays a visit this coming Sunday.  For the Titans to continue their early season success without their starting quarterback, they are going to need their defense to play even better and they are going to need to put an APB out for a competent running game, which hasn't been seen in these parts for the better part of three and a half seasons.

Denver 52 - Philadelphia 20
We can quibble about the quality of Denver's competition, but the offensive numbers they are producing are absolutely staggering.  They are currently on pace to shatter the NFL record for points scored in a single season by over 100 points!  An even more incredible stat is that the Broncos are averaging more points (44.8) than the Buccaneers and Jaguars have scored in total (44 and 31 points respectively).  Peyton Manning has tied an NFL record for most touchdowns to start a season without a single interception - a record he now shares with Milt Plum of the 1960 Browns.  His 16 TD passes are also an NFL record for the first four games of a season.  With the victory over Philly, the Broncos have now won 15 regular season games in a row and there don't seem to be many viable candidates that are going to hand them their first loss. Right now, their toughest games over the next eight weeks figure to be road contests in Indianapolis, New England, and Kansas City.  My prediction is that they will be 10-0 heading into Foxboro.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Washington 24 - Oakland 14
The Washington Offensive Name for Native Americans finally got their first win of the season, but no one should think that all is well with the defending NFC East champions.  The first reason to be cautious about the future of Washington's season is that they beat the Raiders without Terrelle Pryor at quarterback.  It might have been impressive to beat Matt Flynn two years ago before he lost back-to-back battles to be a starting quarterback, but the bloom has come off his rose faster than hiring Edward Scissorhands as your personal gardener.  Secondly, we still didn't see great improvement from RGIII in his fourth start of the season.  He posted a Total QBR less than 50 for the fourth time, when he only had two such games in 2012. More maddening is he continued his early season trend of starting extremely slow in the first half.  Overall, his first half Total QBR is only 11.2, which is the second lowest figure among all qualifying quarterbacks.  Only Blaine Gabbert has a lower first half number.  I'm pretty sure that RGIII does not want his name associated with Gabbert's in any way, shape, or form.

San Diego 30 - Dallas 21
The calendar might flip to a new year, but the same old Cowboys show up year and after year.  They had a chance to take a two-game lead in the NFC East, but they blew the opportunity in a similar way as they have in years past.  They relied on the arm of Tony Romo too much and their defense made the Chargers look like the Chargers of three years ago.  I just don't understand why they only handed the ball 14 times to DeMarco Murray after he ran for nearly 180 yards the week prior.  It wasn't like they were struggling to run the football.  Murray averaged 5 yards per carry for crying out loud!  I know that they feel pressure to justify Romo's existence now more than ever, but they seem to be missing the flashing sign that's telling them they play better when they run the ball effectively.  The other puzzling piece is how horribly their defense played against Philip Rivers.  They allowed Rivers to complete a staggering 83.3% of his attempts and they only sacked him once.  Furthermore, the Cowboys defense didn't realize that they had stumbled into Antonio Gates Turn Back the Clock Day at Qualcomm Stadium.  Gates reached back to the days when he was one of the top tight ends in the business with 10 receptions (on 10 targets) for 136 yards and a touchdown.  It's games like Sunday's that provide further proof that the Cowboys will never win anything of significance under the current owner/head coach/quarterback regime.

New England 30 - Atlanta 23
If KC is one of the biggest overachievers at the quarter pole of the NFL season, then the Falcons have to be one of the biggest disappointments.  After a highly successful 2012 season that saw them a play or three away from a Super Bowl appearance, they find themselves staring at a three game deficit in the standings to the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints.  What is wrong with this version of the Falcons?  Statistically, they are basically the same offense that they were a year ago, which means they are a top ten offense primarily on the strength of their passing game.  The difference is that injuries to Roddy White and Steven Jackson have hurt their ability to score especially in the red zone.  On Sunday night, Atlanta converted just one of six opportunities inside the 20-yard line.  As a result, they are scoring about three points less per game in 2013.  It is a similar story on defense, where Atlanta is ranked in the bottom third of the league in total defense.  In 2012, they overcame their low ranking by being one of the stingier scoring defenses in the NFL.  Unfortunately, they are giving up about eight more points per game this year.  Part of their defensive woes can also be attributed to injuries as they have had to play without Kroy Biermann, Sean Witherspoon, and Asante Samuel for most of the last two weeks.  Luckily, slow starts across the NFC have left the door open for the Falcons to get back into playoff position.

New Orleans 38 - Miami 17
What a difference a year makes.  The Saints were a historically bad defense in 2012, but they are currently ranked as the sixth best defense after four games this year.  More importantly, they have cut their points allowed average by 50% from over 28 points last year to about 14 points so far in 2013.  This dramatic improvement have allowed the Saints to win a low-scoring slugfest against Tampa Bay in week two.  It is the reason why I believe that the Saint are right there with the Seattle Seahawks as the two best teams in the NFC.  It's great that they will be able to settle the debate on the field in week 13.