Week Seven Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to start 7-0 in the season after posting the worst record in the NFL.  Also, KC is the first team to allow 17 or fewer points in seven straight games within a single season since the 2006 Ravens.

Stat of the Week no. 2: Josh Freeman posted the lowest completion percentage in a game with 40 or more attempts (37.7%) since Eli Manning in 2007 (34% vs. Redskins).  In addition, Freeman fell to 11-24 (.314) as a starting quarterback in the last three seasons, which is the 2nd worst win percentage in the NFL.

Stat of the Week no. 3: Tom Brady has three games with a sub-50% completion rate this season, which is the most he has had in any season in his career.

Stat of the Week no. 4: Jamaal Charles has seven straight games with 100+ yards from scrimmage plus a touchdown.  Only O.J. Simpson has had a longer streak to start a season (nine straight games in 1975).

Stat of the Week no. 5: The Jaguars have been outscored by 146 points through seven games.  The only team to be outscored by more points through seven games since the 1970 merger was the 2009 St. Louis Rams.  In a related note, the Jags have not scored a touchdown of any kind at home this season.

Bonus Stat of the Week: Buffalo and Denver are the only teams to have scored at least 20 points in every game this season.  Buffalo is one of three teams to have not scored more than 24 points in any game this season.

Week Seven Picks

Here are my picks for Week 7 (home team in CAPS):

FALCONS over Buccaneers
LIONS over Bengals
DOLPHINS over Bills
Patriots over JETS
EAGLES over Cowboys
Bears over Redskins
PANTHERS over Rams
Chargers over JAGUARS
49ers over TITANS
PACKERS over Browns
CHIEFS over Texans
STEELERS over Ravens
Broncos over COLTS
GIANTS over Vikings
Seahawks over CARDINALS

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 60-32

Week Seven - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

3 Facts

1. Defensive performance was the best in recent memory.

Heading into the game against Arizona, the Seahawks were a mediocre 5-6 in their last 11 road games.  While there were a myriad of reasons for the road struggles, one of the major contributing factors was the defense’s inability to take its home dominance on the road with them.  Far too frequently, we would see two big things happen when Seattle was away from Century Link Field: (1) they would generate little to no pressure on the opposing quarterback and (2) they would be unable to consistently get off the field on third down.  Fortunately, the Seahawks were able to shake both bugaboos on Thursday night, which allowed them to deliver a performance that I would characterize as the best road defensive performance of the Peter Carroll era.  The highlight of the night was the seven sacks and 13 quarterback pressures administered by the ferocious and multi-talented front seven of Seattle.  Personally, I cannot remember another example of the Seattle defense buzzing around and hitting an opposing quarterback on the road as much as they did against Arizona.  As a comparison, they didn’t even have 13 QB hits during their eight sack performance versus the Packers last season.  As a result of their intense pressure, the Seahawks were able to hold the Cardinals to a mere five third down conversions in 15 attempts.  This final stat is even more impressive when you consider that Arizona converted three out of their first four third down situations.  Unless the Seahawks were handing them prime field position, the Cardinals were completely dominated the entire game.  They only had 118 yards of total offense until two meaningless fourth quarter drives nearly doubled their final total.  This type of defensive performance is what every Seahawk fan had in mind when the team added Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in the offseason.  However, Seattle cannot afford to sit on its laurels.  The team has to find a way to bring the same level of intensity on a week-to-week basis starting next Monday night in St. Louis.

2. The Seattle roster is full of tough cookies.

The Seahawks certainly have their flaws, but one characteristic that they have in spades is toughness.  It starts at the top with Russell Wilson and permeates the entire roster.  Wilson not only has the physical toughness to endure big hit after big hit, but he also has the mental fortitude to overcome two lost fumbles.  His brand of football is not always pretty, but it is the definition of finding a way to win.  On the offense, there are other tough guys like Brenno Giacomini, Max Unger, Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, and the list goes on.  Again, the results aren’t always taken from a textbook, but you can never knock their effort.  Not to be outdone by the prima donnas on offense, the toughness on defense starts with the Legion of Boom, who is a mix of bold and brash and quiet grinders.  For goodness sake, the Seattle placekicker is even a tough guy.  Last week, Steven Hauschka took a vicious hit while covering a kickoff and came back in the second half to make several big kicks to lead Seattle to victory.  Seattle’s toughness is what will carry them to victory when their offense struggles like it did in Carolina or when their defense is not executing like they didn’t in Houston. 

3. The Seattle offense looks a lot better when Zach Miller is active.

It is no accident that the Seahawks’ offense plays more efficiently when Miller is in the line-up. Although he lacks the productivity and athleticism of the top tier of tight ends, Miller still provides a security blanket for Russell Wilson.  On Thursday night, he made a tremendous touchdown reception in the first half and the play of the game, in my opinion, when he caught a dump off pass as Wilson was being dragged down by Daryl Washington.  The latter reception was so big because the Cardinals had closed the deficit to four points and an incompletion would have forced the Seahawks to punt the ball.  Instead, the Hawks continued the drive, which ultimately ended in a one-yard touchdown reception for Kellen Davis and a 24-13 lead for Seattle.  If Miller had not played, I just don’t think Luke Willson or Davis would have been able to make the same play. Let’s not forget about the impact that Miller has on the running game due to his above average blocking skills.  His value was stretched even further in this game because he was forced into emergency fullback duty after Derrick Coleman left the game with a hamstring injury.  Hopefully, Seattle can keep him healthy for the remainder of the season because he provides value in obvious and more obscure ways.

3 Questions

1. Do you have faith in Peter Carroll’s decision-making?

This question is probably a little unfair because Carroll hasn’t really made a ton of poor decisions, but I thought I would ask in light of the curious decision to go for a fourth-and-short instead of punting the ball back to Arizona with a 14-point lead.  Normally, I’m supportive of coaches eschewing convention and going for the aggressive play, but I thought the decision was negligent based on the game situation and the fact that the Seahawks were playing with two back-up tackles.  Up to that point, the Cardinals had mustered just 42 total yards.  The Seattle defense was playing outstanding, so the more prudent decision would have been to punt the ball and force Arizona to go the length of the field to score points.  Instead, Arizona started with the ball at their own 43-yard line and needed only 26 yards to set-up a Jay Feely field goal.  We all know what happened next.  Instead of possibly shutting out the Cardinals in the first half, Seattle found itself in a dogfight after Wilson’s fumble inside the five-yard line on the next possession and a one-play scoring drive by Arizona.  I’m still supportive of Carroll overall, but its decisions like this one that make you scratch your head.

2. What’s up with the end of half fiascos the last two weeks?

Two weeks in a row, Seattle has failed miserably at the end of the half.  In week six, Seattle got the ball at the Tennessee 38-yard line with 54 seconds left and holding just one timeout.  More importantly, the offense knew that their kicker had gone to the locker room, so they were either going to have to score a touchdown or risk having the punter kick a field goal.  The first mistake occurred when James Carpenter was whistled for a false start, which cost Seattle its third timeout to avoid the mandatory 10-second run-off.  After a Wilson-to-Baldwin completion and a personal foul penalty against the Titans, Seattle found itself at the 8-yard line with a first-and-goal.  Even though he had no timeouts to work with, Wilson made the poor decision to throw the underneath to Robert Turbin instead of throwing the ball into the end zone.  In the rush to line up the team and spike the ball prior to the clock showing zeroes, Wilson had cost Seattle another opportunity to try to score a touchdown.  Normally, Wilson is one of the headiest quarterbacks in the NFL, but this wasn’t one of his better decisions.  As a result, Seattle sent in a ragtag field goal attempt team, who muffed the attempt and allowed the Titans to return the ball for a 77-yard touchdown. 

On Thursday, Seattle once again found itself in the opponent’s red zone at the end of the first half.  After two consecutive incomplete passes from the 18-yard line, Seattle called its third and final timeout with 19 seconds remaining in the half.  Inconceivably, Michael Bowie was whistled for a false start penalty coming out of the timeout and then Max Unger was called for a holding penalty on the subsequent snap, which pushed the ball all the way back to the 33-yard line. Actually, the hold was blessing in disguise because Wilson had made the decision to scramble from the pocket and I’m not sure if Seattle would have been able to spike the ball before the call ran out without the hold being called.  The silver lining is that Hauschka made the 51-yard field goal.  I might be picking nits, but it is these kinds of mistakes that will come back to haunt the team in a critical game if they are not cleaned up.  Don’t forget that Seattle failed to score at the end of the first half of the Divisional Playoff game last season because of similar issues.

3. Should we worry about Russell Wilson’s ball security?

Overall, Wilson has improved as a quarterback in his second year as a starter.  One area of improvement has been that he has thrown fewer interceptions this year.  Through the first seven games, Wilson is averaging one interception every 47 pass attempts, while last year he threw an interception every 25 attempts during the same period.  However, he is doing a lot worse in the area of holding onto the football.  In 2012, he only had five fumbles lost the entire year.  He already has eight fumbles lost, including two critical fumbles on Thursday, through seven games of 2013.  Are the fumble issues a function of the poor pass protection?  Or is due to the fact that he is running more this year?  Either way, Wilson would be the first person to tell you that he needs to do a better job protecting the ball.  Against the Cardinals, two of the fumbles were the result of Wilson holding the ball way to long in the pocket.  He either needs to get rid of the ball quicker or he needs to make the decision to scramble.  The other fumble occurred when Michael Bowie was beat like a red-headed stepchild by John Abraham.  My hope is that this issue gets better when the offensive line gets healthy, but I have to admit that my concern level is rising.

3 Worries

1. The number of hits taken by Wilson.

According to the MMQB’s Pressure Rate metric, Seattle has faced pressure on a league-worst 43.8% of its pass snaps through six weeks.  After another pressure-filled evening in Arizona, this number is not going to get much better.  In addition, Wilson has been sacked 20 times and has been hit 40 times (officially) in the first seven games.  These figures don’t even take into account the times that Wilson has been hit while scrambling from the pocket or on designed runs.  Wilson is averaging over eight carries per game after averaging just under six carries per game in 2012. With starting quarterbacks being injured all over the NFL, including Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler this past weekend, it has to give the Seattle coaching staff pause to see the number of hits that Wilson has incurred this season.  There is no doubt that Wilson is a tough son of a gun, but at some point he is going to sustain an injury or the cumulative effect of all the hits is going to start impacting his performance.

2. Robert Turbin’s lack of involvement.

For all of the punishment that Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are sustaining, I’m puzzled that Turbin has seen his role in the offense diminished.  As a rookie last year, Turbo averaged 6.2 touches per game and produced 5.4 yards per touch.  It is only logical to expect that his role would expand in his second season.  However, Turbo is only touching the ball 3.8 times per game in 2013 even though his productivity hasn’t declined significantly (5 yards per touch).   The decline in Turbo’s touches can possibly be explained by changes to the focus of the Seattle offense.  In 2012, Seattle was a heavily run-first offense (ran the ball 57% of the time).  This year, the Hawks are officially running the ball on 55% of their plays.  However, the run ratio is being propped up by Russell Wilson’s 58 carries, which are largely called pass plays that result in Wilson scrambling for yardage.  As a result, the Seahawks are probably much closer to being a 50-50 team in their run-pass balance and that is probably a conservative estimate.  The result of fewer running plays being called is that Turbin is getting fewer opportunities to touch the football.  Even Lynch has seen his carries decrease slightly from last season (21 carries/game down to 19.7 carries/game). Nevertheless, I think it is imperative for the Seahawks to find more ways to use Turbin in order to keep Beast Mode fresh for the entire season and keep Wilson from being killed.

3. Don’t worry, be happy.

After Seattle’s most complete victory of the season, I couldn’t come up with a third thing to legitimately worry about.  Instead, allow the great Bobby McFerrin remind you that worrying is a waste of time anyway. 

Three Reasons Why Seattle Wins on the Road

Since their Super Bowl season in 2005, the Seahawks have won only once in seven trips to the desert.  They have lost to Matt Leinart twice, Kurt Warner twice, John Skelton once, and a combination of Skelton and Kevin Kolb once.  In other words, Seattle hasn’t been beaten by a ton of Hall of Fame quarterbacks during this recent stretch of futility in the Valley of the Sun.  This trend doesn’t bode well considering they will be facing another middling NFL quarterback on Thursday Night.  The biggest certainty about tonight’s game in Glendale is that it will be a close, hard-fought ball game since the last seven visits to Arizona have been decided by an average of 3.1 points.  In order to break out of this desert malaise, it is imperative that the Seahawks have a fast start to the game in order to take out the home crowd and immediately cast doubt in the minds of the Cardinals that they will be able to win the game.  This would be the exact opposite of what occurred last season when Seattle, in Russell Wilson’s first NFL start, allowed Arizona to keep the game close and ultimately allowed Kevin Kolb to come off the bench and lead a come-from-behind victory.  It’s no secret that Seattle has struggled on the road recently, but I’m picking them to win for the following reasons.  

The defense will force Carson Palmer into mistakes.

Despite the Heisman Trophy and USC pedigree, Palmer has largely been a mediocre quarterback during his 11-year NFL career.  He isn’t a particularly accurate thrower of the football.  He has only completed 62% of his career attempts and has surpassed 65% just once in his career (2006).  He has shown a propensity to turn the ball throughout his career, but even more so during the two-plus seasons he has spent in Oakland and Arizona.  Palmer has averaged about 1.5 turnovers per game in his 11 seasons, but that number has increased to nearly 1.7 in 31 starts spanning the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.  It is absolutely critical that Seattle keeps making him look mortal and doesn’t allow him to morph into the Carson Palmer from 2005-2007, who looked on the precipice of becoming the next great NFL quarterback.  Keeping Palmer in check will be a challenge for the Seahawks because they have allowed a Total QBR on the road that is nearly five times greater than the Total QBR they have allowed at home this season.  However, I believe this Seattle defense is up to the challenge because, outside of Larry Fitzgerald, this Arizona team does not have the offensive weapons to expose them like the Texans and Colts did at times.  Ultimately, the Seahawks defense will make the pocket an uncomfortable place for Palmer to be, which will lead to the takeaways that will fuel a Seattle victory.

Seattle will lead with the passing game.

The Pete Carroll formula for winning football games calls for playing physically, especially across the offensive and defensive lines, running the ball effectively, and attacking through the air off of play action.  However, Arizona has been especially strong this season playing the run (9^th in yards per game and 4^th in yard per attempt) and it appears that they will be at full strength with ESPN reporting that Calais Campbell will play despite the scary injury he sustained on Sunday.  In simpler terms, it should be tough sledding for Seattle on the ground.  They will have to run the ball to keep the Cardinals honest, but they will have to be effective through the air to win the game. The key for Seattle’s success will be to continue to use play action to set up Russell Wilson from the pocket.  Wilson has attempted 65 throws off play action this year, the second-highest total in the NFL, and his 93.5 Total QBR on such throws ranks behind only Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.  In addition, I think that the Seattle receivers are going to be highly motivated to have a big game due to all of the talk this week about their alleged struggles to get separation from defenders.  As a result, Seattle will be able to take advantage of the shakiest part of the Arizona defense, their pass defense. 

The special teams will play a clean game.

Seattle has had two notable kicking game gaffes the last two weeks: the blocked field goal in Indianapolis that completely changed the complexion of that game and the flukey botched field goal that led to a 77-yard fumble return for Tennessee last week.  While neither of these mistakes point to systemic issue with the Seattle special teams, it is still going to be necessary for the Seahawks to play a clean game in this area.  In my opinion, a clean game doesn’t just mean avoiding blocked kicks, but it also means that Seattle covers kicks effectively and takes advantage of opportunities to create good field position.  A major focus area should to limit the punt return yardage for Patrick Peterson.  His average per return is down about 10 yards since his rookie season, but Seattle shouldn’t forget that he has the same talent that led to four punt return touchdowns in 20111.  Fortunately, this assignment should not be too difficult for Seattle as their punt coverage team leads the NFL with a return average allowed of only 1.3 yards.  In what I expect to be a close game, Seattle’s strong kicking game and coverage units will making a huge contribution to Seattle winning this game.

Quick Hits - Week Six

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Cincinnati 27 – Buffalo 24

It’s truly remarkable that the Bills started a quarterback from Duke University on Sunday.  The same Duke University that hasn’t made an appearance in the AP Top 25 poll since 1994.  The same high-powered football program that has appeared in three bowl games since 1961.  The same football factory that hasn’t won a conference title since sharing an ACC title back in 1989.  Somehow, despite all of the quarterbacks from higher pedigree programs, Thad Lewis has managed to buck the odds and actually start two NFL games in his career.  I can’t think of a less likely Football Subdivision program to produce an NFL quarterback than Duke University.  Nevertheless, there was Lewis on Sunday playing a surprisingly competent game and nearly leading the Bills to an upset of the Bengals.  It has become a precarious situation to play quarterback for Buffalo, but here’s hoping that the Thad Lewis era continues for a few more weeks.

Detroit 31 – Cleveland 17

The Lions are the sleeper team in the NFC.  They have a potentially explosive offense when they have everyone healthy and they might just have enough defense to ensure that they won’t have to win 35-31 shootouts every week.  The biggest keys for Detroit going forward are to keep Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush healthy because their offense is not the same without them. 

Kansas City 24 – Oakland 7

For all you fans of the SAT, here is an analogy: the Chiefs are to defense as the Broncos are to offense.  Kansas City has used the NFL’s number one scoring defense and number five overall defense to counter an offense that is as bland as a piece of Wonder Bread with butter.  In fact, it is probably an insult to buttered Wonder Bread to compare it to the Chiefs offense.  Led by their quarterback Captain Checkdown, Kansas City managed to throttle the Raiders despite 216 total yards of offense, including a measly 105 yards passing.  They might not have played the toughest schedule thus far, but the Chiefs are definitely the biggest threat to the Broncos running away and hiding from the rest of the AFC.  There should be no reason for Kansas City to not be 9-0 when they play Denver in Week 11.

Carolina 35 – Minnesota 10

Both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out.  The Panthers were fresh off laying a gigantic egg in the desert last week, but managed to put together their most complete performance of the season in destroying the listless Vikings.  It is inconceivable to me how Minnesota can play so poorly following a bye week.  Isn’t the week off supposed to be an advantage to the team that gets the break?  I had the same question after Carolina sleep-walked through their game with Arizona last week.  Maybe the Vikings were angry about Rick Spielman’s decision to bring clubhouse cancer Josh Freeman onto the roster or maybe they were just too upset about the Adrian Peterson tragedy to get their minds around playing competitive football.  On the topic of Peterson, I found it odd that he chose to practice with the team and play on Sunday in light of the death of his son.  In no other walk of life would a person be expected to continue working after experiencing a similar personal loss.  The personal attacks on Peterson were over the top, but I do feel it is appropriate to raise the issue of why professional athletes are expected to continue playing through personal trauma, babies being born, etc.

Pittsburgh 19 – NY Jets 6

Just when it appeared that Geno Smith had taken a big step forward following his flawless performance in week five, the Steelers defense brought him crashing back to Earth.  The key to Pittsburgh’s success against Smith was eliminating his greatest skill: downfield throwing.  Smith came into the game averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt over his last three starts, but he was quickly converted into the master of the check down.  As a result, Smith could only muster 5.9 yards per attempt, which was his lowest number of the season.  In order to be successful this year, the Jets have to get off the Geno Smith roller coaster.  He is clearly their quarterback now and in the future, but he has to find some consistency from week to week. 

Philadelphia 31 – Tampa Bay 20

Am I the only person who is getting the feeling that Michael Vick won't be getting his job back when he is healthy?  In order for Chip Kelly to run the offense that he wants to run, his quarterback needs to protect the football and be accurate.  Vick does neither of those things very well.  He is barely a 56% passer for his career and he has turned the ball over 173 times in only 126 games played.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles has completed over 67% of his attempts and has yet to turn the ball over in his limited time replacing Vick.  Keep in mind that Foles ran an up tempo offense at Arizona that required him to deliver the football quickly and accurately.  Unless Foles gets injured or starts to play terribly, I would predict that Vick's time as the starter in Philly has come to an end.

Green Bay 19 – Baltimore 17

The Packers are certainly happy about getting the road win against the defending Super Bowl champs, but they are starting to run out of healthy wide receivers.  The biggest loss was due to the fractured fibula for Randall Cobb, which is expected to keep him out of the line-up for four to eight weeks.  Cobb is an integral part of the offense because he works the middle of the defense, which creates space for Jordy Nelson and James Jones to work the boundaries and the deep ball.  In addition to Cobb's injury, there is uncertainty about the health of Jones' knee after he suffered a PCL sprain on Sunday.  If both guys are unavailable in Week Seven, then the burden will fall on the dynamic Nelson and the inconsistent Jermichael Finley to carry the load in the passing game.  My guess is that the Packers will try to work the running game a bit more with their promising young tandem of running backs, Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin.

St. Louis 38 – Houston 13

The situation in Houston has gone from bad to worse after the Texans got shellacked for the second consecutive week by an NFC West foe.  The fan base has completely turned on starting quarterback Matt Schaub, which has led to fans burning his jersey, showing up at his home, and cheering after he got hurt against the Rams.  The Schaub backlash has created a toxic relationship between the team and its fans, which include Texans players lashing out at the fans for their actions after he got hurt.  In the near term, things are not going to get better because Houston has to travel to Kansas City to face the best defense in football with T.J. Yates or Case Keenum calling the signals. 

Denver 35 – Jacksonville 19

The Jags deserve a round of applause for putting up a good fight against the heavily-favored Broncos.  They were only down two points at halftime and it was a single-digit deficit until the fourth quarter.  They single-handedly doubled the number of turnovers that Manning had the entire season.  The other thing that was clear from this game is that the Jags offense is completely different with Justin Blackmon in the line-up.  There is a reason why Chad Henne threw nearly 50% of his attempts to Blackmon, who didn't disappoint with 14 receptions for 190 yards.  The Jags have to do everything in their power to keep him on the straight and narrow path because he is the most legitimate play-maker that they have.

New England 30 – New Orleans 27

The Houdini act pulled off by the Patriots was extremely impressive, but it wasn't the only impressive thing that I took from this game.  The Pats deserve a lot of props for holding all world tight end, Jimmy Graham, without a catch for the first time since the seventh game of his rookie season before he became a household name.  The job that Aqib Talib did on Graham will go down in the annals of New England football.  Another impressive feat accomplished by the Patriots on Sunday was forcing Drew Brees to misfire on 19 of his 36 attempts.  This is the same guy who is a 66% passer for his career and has twice completed 70% or more of his attempts over an entire season.  The only downer, and it's a big one, is that New England lost Jerod Mayo to a season-ending injury and might not have the services of Talib for this Sunday's game.

San Francisco 32 – Arizona 20

The 49ers have two legitimate receiving threats and, somehow, the Arizona defense allowed one of those threats to go absolutely bananas on Sunday as Vernon Davis racked up 180 yards receiving and two touchdowns.  Davis is a dynamic player but shame on the Cardinals coaching staff for not coming up with some kind of adjustment to limit the damage.

Dallas 31 – Washington 16

The Team with the Offensive Name had their best defensive effort of the season, but still lost by double digits because the self-inflicted wounds were too serious to overcome.  Their biggest sin was their inability to stop Dwayne Harris from destroying them in the kick return game.  Harris had an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown and followed that humongous play with a 90-yard kickoff return that set-up a short touchdown toss to Terrance Williams.  Since the Cowboys were largely unable to move the ball throughout the game, these two plays were the difference in the game.  In addition to the special teams mistakes, Washington couldn't overcome the inefficient passing day from RGIII or his two turnovers.  His biggest mistake was a fumble inside his own five-yard line that set-up a Joseph Randle touchdown plunge to cap the scoring.  Washington also committed 12 penalties for over 100 yards, which kept them behind the sticks all game long.  In what is fast becoming a lost season for Washington, they have to be really kicking themselves for letting this game get away.

San Diego 19 – Indianapolis 9
Did the Colts and Chargers somehow switch identities before the game?  Fresh off of knocking the Seattle Seahawks from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Colts looked completely lost against the Chargers.  They couldn't sustain drives on offense and their defense couldn't get San Diego off the field consistently.  Conversely, the Chargers controlled the action with their strongest rushing effort of the season and an effective play-action passing attack.  Normally, I think that time of possession is one of the most overrated statistics in football, but it gains a little in value when the numbers are skewed heavily to a particular team.  San Diego held the ball for nearly two-thirds of this game and it left me feeling that the Colts barely had the football, which is actually kind of true.  I just never saw it coming that Indianapolis would struggle this badly with a San Diego defense that hadn't stopped anyone since the first half against Houston in the opening week of the season.  The Colts were either hungover from their physical battle with Seattle last week or maybe they are not as good as many thought they were.

Week Six - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

Three Facts

 

1. The Tennessee game was more lopsided than the final score indicated.

If we ignore the scoreboard for a minute, the Seahawks pretty much dominated the Titans in every other area.  The defense didn’t make as many spectacular plays as the 12^th Man would have hoped, but they limited the Titans to season lows in total yards, rushing yards, and first downs. Most importantly, they allowed Tennessee just one trip inside the 20-yard line, which resulted in a field goal.  The Seattle offense nearly outgained the Titans by 200 yards.  They moved the ball with ease between the 20’s but their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone kept the game from being the blow out that it should have been.  Even with the offensive struggles, the final score should have been 23-6 or 20-6.  The biggest evidence that Tennessee was outclassed was that its only touchdown came on a botched field goal attempt, which involved a back-up safety as the holder and a punter filling in for the injured Steven Hauschka. 

 

2. Seahawks’ fans will have to accept winning ugly until the offensive line gets healthy.

Over the last five games of the 2012 season, the 12^th Man was treated to high octane football as the Seahawks blew through opponent after opponent during their push to make the playoffs.  It was one of those rare stretches when the offense, defense, and special teams were all playing at an extremely high level.  Unfortunately, the 2013 Seahawks are not hitting on all cylinders like they did at the end of last season.  I would argue that Seattle has “won ugly” in four out of their five victories.  They even found a way to lose ugly.  Seahawks’ fans are just going to have to embrace these gritty, “find a way to win” Seahawks because I don’t see things improving appreciably until Russell Okung and Brenno Giacomini are back in the starting line-up.  The drop-off in talent across the offensive line due to the injuries has caused havoc with Seattle’s ability to run the ball consistently and protect Russell Wilson, which has directly impacted its red zone efficiency and general offensive continuity.  In several of their victories this season, the Hawks have demonstrated that they are mentally tough enough to keep taking body blows from their opponents, but still find ways to emerge victorious when the final bell tolls.

 

3. Seattle needs to be prudent about when to bring back players from injuries.

The Seahawks don’t need to rush back any of the ailing players to win their next five games. Certainly their margin for error is reduced by not having Okung, Giacomini, Wagner, Clemons, etc, but it is more important to be healthy for December than to beat each of their next five opponents. If for no one else, caution should definitely be employed for Russell Okung because his injury history would lead you to believe that he has the highest risk of re-injury should he be rushed back to the starting lineup.  I still think that Seattle has a tremendous opportunity to be 10-1 heading into their bye week, but it is going to take all of the mental toughness and grittiness that they can assemble.

 

Three Questions

 

1. Should we be concerned that Russell Wilson is propping up the rushing totals?

The Seahawks are the #2 running team in the NFL after six weeks.  Taken at face value, this productivity in the running game should be considered a huge accomplishment for a team that has played at time without three starting offensive linemen.  However, a deeper look shows that Wilson’s scrambling yardage has been a huge contributor to Seattle’s ground game, especially over the last three weeks.  Wilson has generated 44% of the rushing totals as he has dramatically increased his carries due to sheer necessity.  Is it a concern that the Seahawks are seemingly unable to generate consistent yards through the traditional rushing attack?  On one hand, it is worrisome that Marshawn Lynch has only surpassed the century mark in one game this season and that Robert Turbin seems much less involved in the game plan.  As with many things, I believe that the running game will improve as the general health of the offensive line improves. Also, I think that the Hawks find themselves in an anything goes kind of situation with their offense.  If they are moving the chains due to Wilson’s athletic ability, then so be it.  Until they are able to unveil the offense they envisioned in training camp, the Hawks are going to be content with moving the ball and scoring points however they can.

 

2. Does Seattle have the worst tight end situation in the NFL?

The Seahawks’ tenuous tight end position started to unwind with the season-ending injury to Anthony McCoy back in May.  While I’m not the biggest McCoy fan, I would concede that he was probably the most athletic tight end that Seattle has had on its roster this year.  With McCoy unavailable, the Hawks have been forced to make it work with the too-often-injured Zach Miller, the too green Luke Willson, and the useless Kellen Davis.  The result has been a pathetic 20 receptions and two touchdowns from the position group.  In addition, the lack of a play-maker at the tight end position has led to way too many red zone field goals because if the Hawks can’t get Miller or Willson open by scheme then they are not getting open.  I’m not ready to call Seattle’s tight end situation the worst in football, but it is definitely the worst when you just consider playoff and Super Bowl contenders.

 

3. Should the Seahawks be getting more from their pass rush?

With the additions of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, there was a great deal of excitement among Seahawks’ fans that their team would have one of the most dominant pass rushes in the NFL. This feeling was intensified with the return of Chris Clemons from injury and Bruce Irvin from a league-mandated suspension.  After six weeks, Seattle finds itself on pace for approximately 45 sacks, which would have put them in the top five last season.  In addition, according to the MMQB’s Greg Bedard, the Seahawks were the third best team in the NFL in pressure rate through the first five weeks of the season.  Despite some of the nice statistics, does it feel like the Seahawks are getting their money’s worth from their pass rush?  Obviously, the final numbers are important, but it is even more imperative for Seattle to consistently generate pressure both home and away.  On several occasions this season, the Seahawks’ defensive line has gone into the witness protection program, including the first half in Houston and the second half in Indianapolis. It will be an encouraging sign if the Hawks can make life uncomfortable for Carson Palmer on Thursday night, especially considering that Clemons is unlikely to play due to injury.

 

Three Worries

 

1. Offensive continuity issues

For most of the season, the Seattle offense has been running in place.  They have been unable to find a sustainable flow because they are only converting 32.1% of their third down opportunities, which is the 28^th ranked conversion rate in the league.  When they have been able to move the football, they have been settling for way too many field goals.  Currently, they find themselves in the middle of the pack with a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone.  Their maddening inconsistency on offense allowed the Colts to ultimately beat them and kept the Tennessee Titans alive much longer than they should have been.  Part of the issue has been the lack of protection from the offensive line.  There have been many times when Wilson has been unable to evaluate his first option much less any secondary options in the passing game.  It doesn’t help that Seattle lacks a difference-maker at wide receiver and tight end.  The hope is that the current make-up of the offensive line can gel together and hold the fort until the regular starters come back from injury. 

 

2. Passing game limitations

The Seahawks are limited at wide receiver, which was one of the reasons they traded for Percy Harvin in the offseason.  With Harvin still recovering from surgery, the rest of the Seattle wide receivers have been unable to make a huge impact.  The Seahawks are currently the 25^th ranked passing attack in the NFL, but the bigger issue is how much the Seattle receivers struggle to create separation in man-to-man coverage.  The problem is further compounded by the complete disappearance of Sidney Rice, who theoretically has the size and skills to make catches even when he isn’t technically open.  The hope is that Jermaine Kearse can start to assume some of Rice’s role, but it still appears that the situation is not ripe for him to take on a bigger part of the offense.  Again, the hope is that through improved game planning and improved protection the passing game will take flight.  The other beacon of hope is the imminent return of Harvin from the Physically Unable to Perform list.

 

3. Mounting injuries

The Hawks won’t have Russell Okung and Brenno Giacomini back in the starting line-up together for several more weeks.  They are facing the prospect of playing Thursday night without two of their defensive leaders, Bobby Wagner and Chris Clemons.  Losing Clem is a big deal, but at least the Hawks have a lot of bodies along the defensive line to pick up the slack.  I’m also very encouraged by some of the improvement that I saw from the offensive line on Sunday.  One highlight was that Michael Bowie allowed just one hurry in 42 pass blocking snaps according to Pro Football Focus.  Another positive sign was that Russell Wilson actually performed better when the Titans applied pressure than when he had a clean pocket.  The expectation is that the Cardinals are going to come after Wilson early and often.  With their outstanding depth being tested, it remains to be seen if the Hawks can keep winning.

Week Six Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: Vernon Davis is the first tight end to have 60-yard TD receptions in back-to-back games since the Bengals' Bob Trumpy did it in three consecutive games in 1969. 

Stat of the Week no. 2: The Raiders became the first team to allow 10 sacks, commit 11 penalties, and turn the ball over three times since the Raiders turned the trick in 1998 against the Kansas City Chiefs (1st game of Jon Gruden era). 

Stat of the Week no. 3: Since losing to New England last year, the Texans are 3-7 in regular season games and have been out scored by 116 pts, which is the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL over that span. 

Stat of the Week no. 4: Eli Manning is the first player to throw 15 or more interceptions in the first six games of a season since Dan Fouts in 1986.

Stat of the Week no. 5: Reggie Wayne has at least three receptions in 70 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.