Week Nine Picks

Here are my picks for week nine (home teams in CAPS):


ATLANTA over Tampa Bay

BUFFALO over Chicago

New England over CLEVELAND

N.Y. Jets over DETROIT

MINNESOTA over Arizona

New Orleans over CAROLINA

BALTIMORE over Miami

HOUSTON over San Diego

Kansas City over OAKLAND

PHILADELPHIA over Indianapolis

GREEN BAY over Dallas

Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI

N.Y. Giants over SEATTLE

Last Week: 6-6
Overall: 61-39 (missed week two)

Week Eight Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: The Raiders have won the past two games by a combined 75 points, which is the first time that has happened since 1967.  It’s the third time in franchise history that they have won back-to-back games by 30-plus points.  The Raiders posted 500-plus total yards in back-to-back games for the first time in their history.

Stat of the week No. 2: The Chargers allowed a block punt for safety, their fourth blocked punt of the season, which is tied for the third most in a season since the merger.

Stat of the week No. 3: Dan Carpenter became the fourth player in NFL history with five or more field goals in back-to-back games.

Stat of the week No. 4: Brandon Lloyd became the sixth player since 1970 to have 800-plus receiving yards and average 20.0 yards-per-reception or more through a team’s first eight games of a season.  The last players to accomplish this feat were Jerry Rice and Webster Slaughter in 1989.

Stat of the week No. 5: The Chiefs posted 200-plus rushing yards for the third straight game for the first time since 1978 and the second time in franchise history.

The Patriots resurrect successful formula and other NFL thoughts

(1)              Dare I say that the New England Patriots, minus Randy Moss, are the best team in the NFL?  I don’t think we can call them anything else after they improved their league-best record to 6-1 with a victory over the visiting Minnesota Vikings.  With the victory, they have now won 13 consecutive home games against NFC opponents and they are starting to rekindle thoughts of the 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl teams that overwhelmed teams more with their mental toughness than their talent.  The biggest difference between this version of the Patriots and the one that won three Super Bowl titles in four seasons is that this version leads the NFL in rookie starts and has the second most undrafted players on the roster.  As a result, this team was not considered among the elite in the conference at the beginning of the season, especially on defense, and the prognosis got even bleaker following a demoralizing week two loss to the New York Jets.  At best, this season was supposed to be a bridge to 2011 and beyond, when the team’s younger set would have their collective feet underneath them.  Instead, this team has developed a mental outlook that has allowed them to recover from the Jets’ loss to win five games in a row, which included come-from-behind victories over Baltimore and Minnesota. 

     The most surprising part of the Patriots’ season so far is that they are at the top of the NFL heap despite a non-descript group of offensive contributors and a defense that has youth all over the place.  We all know that Tom Brady is a perennial MVP candidate and Wes Welker is an esteemed possession receiver, but they don’t have any other offensive players that put fear into the hearts of defenses, especially following Moss’ departure.  Nevertheless, the Patriots have crafted a top 15 offense by having Brady distribute the football to Welker, Deion Branch and young guys like Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez.  It is no surprise that Brady is thriving in the point guard role and raising the level of his wide receivers by showing confidence in them, but I am a little shocked that the Patriots have kept winning despite the utter lack of a viable deep threat.  Tate provided a glimpse of his potential with a 69-yard touchdown reception, but it came on a broken play and he still has a long way to go to develop into a consistent deep threat.  Nevertheless, the Patriots are going to have to find ways to stretch defenses because I fully expect to a lot of eight-man fronts against them to take away the short passing game and the running game.  New England can also keep defenses on their toes by developing some consistency running the football.  Fortunately, there have been some glimmers of hope in the running game despite the fact that they are without Fred Taylor (injured), Kevin Faulk (injured) and Laurence Maroney (traded to Denver).  They are being led on the ground by the Boston Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has 371 yards rushing after gaining a season high 112 yards on Sunday.  They have supplemented Green-Ellis’ production with change-of-pace running back Danny Woodhead.  With Faulk’s absence, the Patriots desperately needed someone to fill his shoes as an occasional ball carrier and third-down specialist and Woodhead has done an admirable job.  Woodhead had his best day against the Ravens with 115 total yards, but he contributed a rushing touchdown and 45 yards receiving in the win against the Vikings as well.  He has become this year’s version of Julian Edelman.  In other words, a completely off-the-radar guy that replaced a veteran contributor and performed with very little drop-off.  This is the formula that worked so well for New England between 2001-2004 and they have finally found the right group of guys to be successful with the formula again. 

     On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots don’t look great on paper, but they are starting to show signs that they are becoming a solid unit.  The defense has been built much more through the draft, but the talent has taken quite awhile to jell with each other.  They have very few holdovers from the glory days, but it appears that Bill Belichick is finally getting the leadership and toughness that had become so customary in the days of Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrable.  Jerod Mayo leads the defense on and off the field and has become a tackling machine at the middle linebacker position.  The Patriots knew that they had a winner when they drafted Mayo, but injuries and a slow adjustment to the NFL made his transition to stardom much slower than expected.  They hit another home run with the addition of Brandon Spikes, which should solidify their linebacker corps for years to come.  In the secondary, they have a couple of hard-hitting safeties in Brandon Meriweather and Pat Chung and two improving cornerbacks in Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington.  The defense had its best moment in their second half and overtime domination of the Baltimore Ravens, but I believe they have even better moments in front of them.  Ultimately, I think that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL through eight weeks.  Of course, we have all realized that the title of best team is completely transitory and might get reassigned if New England stubs its toe against Cleveland next week.

(2)              Being a head coach in the National Football League has to be one of the most demanding jobs in the world.  Even though they are compensated extremely well, they face pressures that most people never have to face.  They are required to spend copious amounts of hours in the office watching film, game planning and trying to find any edge that will lead to victory on Sunday.  They have to manage egos, both large and small, while at the same time keeping their fingers on the collective pulse of every area of their team and making dozens of decisions each week that could be mean the difference between victory and defeat.  It is easy to see how tough a job it really is and it is easy to see why so many have failed miserably.  Some can’t hack it because they are overwhelmed by the magnitude of the position, which normally manifests itself into poorly prepared teams and terrible in-game decision-making, especially in crunch situations.  Some fail because they lack the necessary management skills that leaders of large, complex organizations need to be successful.  Some dazzle owners and general managers in interview sessions, but quickly demonstrated that they have no business being an NFL head coach.  It is actually amazing how many head coaches fail, especially when you consider the lengths that most teams exhaust to find a new coach. 

     There is no profile of a bad head coach.  They are young and old, inexperienced and veteran, black and white and calm and emotional.  Jim Zorn and Wade Phillips have vastly different experience levels as an NFL head coach, but they are both overwhelmed by the pressure of the job and terrible in-game decision-makers.  Lovie Smith is another coach that makes terrible choices during games, just look at his low percentage of successful challenges if you want further proof.  Jim Mora, Jr. flamed out of the league twice because he couldn’t control his urges; once for publicly pining for the University of Washington job and a second time for publicly flogging his kicker after a close loss to Chicago and telling reporters that he wanted more “dirtbags” on the roster.  On the other hand, Art Shell failed horribly in his second go-around with Oakland primarily because no one could tell if he was dead or alive on the sideline.  He was so calm during games that people wondered if we had a real-life Weekend at Bernie’s situation.  You just never know who will be a good coach. 

     This past weekend, there were a number of situations that highlighted the sometimes precarious nature of head coaching in the NFL.  The first example was the inexplicable benching of Donovan McNabb right at the two-minute warning in the second half of a one score game.  Coach Shanahan attributed his decision to the fact that Rex Grossman had a better handle of the two-minute offense than McNabb.  Shanahan’s reasoning was either the most candid statement ever uttered by an NFL coach or it was an extremely poor choice for an excuse.  Either way, Shanahan looks stupid because he threw his prized free agent quarterback under the bus and McNabb suffered a completely unnecessary public embarrassment.  Later, Shanahan put his foot further into his mouth when he stated that McNabb was not in good shape either.  Apparently, after a series of mini-camps, organized team activities, training camp and eight weeks of the regular season, McNabb is both a slob and poorly prepared.  It is an amazing turn of events in Washington and it surely means that Shanahan has lost a portion of the locker room for the rest of the season.  The second example of bone-headed coaching came courtesy of Rex Ryan, who apparently dressed up like Lovie Smith for Halloween because he blew his two challenges in the first half and was unable to challenge a questionable interception by Charles Woodson in the second half.  In addition, he blew his three second half timeouts prior to the 3:50 mark, which might have meant that he was actually dressed up like Andy Reid.  Let’s not forget that he apparently gave his punter the leeway to call the ill-fated fake punt on fourth and forever from his own 20-yard line.  All of these mistakes led directly to the Jets’ loss and showed that even one of the better head coaches in the NFL can make huge blunders.  The last example of bad coaching has to do with something that has bothered me for a long time.  I absolutely hate when teams are getting blown out and coaches call for a late field goal just to avoid getting shut out.  This situation occurred yet again in the Oakland ritual blood-letting of the Seattle Seahawks.  The Hawks had not done anything all game long, but suddenly found themselves with a fourth down from the Oakland 30-yard line trailing 23-0 midway through the fourth quarter.  Instead of attempting to convert on fourth down, Coach Com-pete Carroll decided to kick a meaningless field goal.  Keep in mind that his kicker had already missed two field goals earlier in the game.  What the hell did Carroll have to lose by rolling the dice and going for it?  Did he really believe that his team was suddenly going to explode for three touchdowns in the last nine minutes of the game to overcome the three score deficit that remained after the field goal?  The only thing that made sense was to convert the fourth down and try to get a touchdown on that drive.  Carroll took the pathetic route and the final score didn’t look any better for kicking the field goal.  Let’s hope that the coaching in week nine is infinitely better than week eight.

(3)              The NFC South is yet again turning into one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL.  They are the only division that boasts three teams with five victories and there are a number of storylines to follow for the rest of the season.  First of all, you have the Atlanta Falcons, who have lost only one home game with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but turn into a different team on the road.  They have an impressive victory in the Superdome, but they got roughed up pretty good when they traveled to the City of Brotherly Love.  On offense, they have all of the components required to be a playoff team and beyond, but their defense still leaves a lot to be desired.  They are the 23^rd ranked defense in the NFL, but their 10^th ranked scoring defense indicates that they might be bending but they are not breaking on a regular basis.  I believe they have the best chance to win the division, but they need to find more consistency on the road.  It seems obvious to me that they need to recapture their dominant running game when they are away from home, which should put Ryan in manageable down and distance situations.

     The Falcons own a head-to-head victory over New Orleans, but they might have to start looking in the rearview mirror because the Saints look to have turned the corner in their 20-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.  Honestly, it was the Saints’ most complete victory of the season because it came against one of the elite teams from the more dominant AFC.  The Saints are actually playing sounder defensively than a year ago, but their normally tremendous offense has staggered through most of their first eight games.  Drew Brees has equaled the number of interceptions that he threw in all of 2009 and the running game has been a shadow of its former self due to the injuries sustained by Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.  The run game struggled mightily against the Steelers, but Brees had perhaps his finest fourth quarter of the season, which was enough to outlast the Men of Steel.  I still believe that the Saints are the class of the division because they possess the best quarterback and the best defense.  In addition, they seem to be getting healthier with the imminent return of Bush right when their schedule gets fairly soft.

The wild card in the division has to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Baby Bucs have come out of nowhere to be tied for the division lead with a 5-2 record.  The most impressive part of their start is that they have won all three of their games away from the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.  As a fan of the Seattle Seahawks, I know full well how hard it is to win road games in the NFL.  The Bucs seemed to have mastered the art of winning away from home despite having one of the youngest rosters in the NFL.  They have a second-year quarterback in Josh Freeman that is limiting his mistakes and making plays to help the Bucs win close games.  He played terrible for most of last week’s game against St. Louis, but he maintained his composure down the stretch and led the Buccaneers on a game-winning drive.  He struck again with a seven play, 74 yard drive that ended in a LaGarrette Blount touchdown that provided the winning margin in the victory over Arizona.  In addition to Freeman, the Bucs have a budding star receiver in Mike Williams and a blossoming running game due to the presence of Blount, who has quickly taken over the primary running duties from Cadillac Williams after being picked up from Tennessee.  The Bucs’ major issue is the same as the Falcons: they don’t have a defense that is consistently playing at a high level.  Frankly, the Bucs have the worst defense of the three teams.  I still think that Tampa Bay is at least one year away from truly contending, but they are doing everything in their power to prove me wrong.

Week Eight Picks

Here are my picks for week eight (home teams in CAPS):


CINCINNATI over Miami

DALLAS over Jacksonville

DETROIT over Washington

KANSAS CITY over Buffalo

ST. LOUIS over Carolina

N.Y. JETS over Green Bay

Denver over SAN FRANCISCO

Tennessee over SAN DIEGO

NEW ENGLAND over Minnesota

Tampa Bay over ARIZONA

Pittsburgh over NEW ORLEANS

INDIANAPOLIS over Houston

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 55-33 (missed week two)

Week Seven Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: San Diego lost for the fourth time this season when outgaining their opponent by 150 or more total yards, which is the most through seven games by any team since 1950.


Stat of the week No. 2: For only the fifth time in NFL history, two players had 200+ yards receiving and at least two touchdown catches on the same day (Roddy White and Kenny Britt).

Stat of the week No. 3: 30% of NFL games this season have been decided by three points or less. The highest percentage for this type of game was 27.9% in 1997.

Stat of the week No. 4: David Bowens became the third linebacker since 1950 with two interception return touchdowns, joining Derrick Johnson in 2009 and Ken Norton in 1995.

Stat of the week No. 5: With 110 yards rushing against Tampa Bay, Steven Jackson passed Eric Dickerson to become the most prolific running back in Rams franchise history (7,324 career rushing yards).

McDaniels era in Denver on shaky ground and other NFL thoughts

(1) The folks in Denver have to be wondering if Josh McDaniels’ days are numbered in the Mile High City after the 59-14 beat down the Broncos suffered at the hands of division rival Oakland. In his second season at the helm, the Broncos are 2-5 and they are 4-13 since starting McDaniels’ first season undefeated in their first six games. New coaches have to be given a little time to implement their systems, but owner Pat Bowlen has to be thinking that McDaniels is not living up to the reputation he developed in New England, especially after the debacle that occurred on Sunday. In historical terms, McDaniels might want to have a bag packed just in case because the two previous head coaches in Denver were fired after disastrous games against the Raiders. Wade Phillips was fired in 1994 after a 48-16 whipping and Mike Shanahan was fired in 2008 following a 38-10 defeat to Oakland. At the very least, McDaniels needs a stern talking to by Bowlen because the Broncos looked completely unprepared for the game and didn’t put up much of a fight once the Raiders’ snowball started rolling. Oakland scored touchdowns eight seconds apart in the first quarter to kick off the rout, which staggered the Broncos. The Raiders continued their early flurry with 38 points in the game’s first 22 minutes to eliminate any doubt about the outcome of the game, which ended with Oakland scoring a franchise-record 59 points. The offensive explosion allowed Oakland to win for the third consecutive time at Invesco Field and left Denver searching for answers. The Broncos had talked all week about a quick start being the key, but it was the Raiders who jumped out quickly and never let up. The Broncos not only didn’t start fast, but they compounded their early missteps with turnovers and execution issues throughout the rest of the game. Kyle Orton was ineffective for the second consecutive week and Denver fumbled the football five times losing two of them. Overall, they turned the ball over three times and never were able to find any rhythm against the Oakland defense. Even after scoring touchdowns on consecutive possessions in the second half, the Broncos went silently down the stretch with their last five possessions ending in four punts and one turnover on downs.


On the other hand, the Raiders were outstanding. They racked up over 500 yards of total offense with 328 yards coming on the ground. They were led by Darren McFadden, who ran for 165 yards on the ground and joined three other players as the only Raiders to score four touchdowns in a single game (Harvey Williams – 1997, Marcus Allen – 1984 and Art Powell – 1967). It was the third best rushing output in franchise history and it effectively took away the fight from the Broncos one rushing play at a time. In addition to the ground game, Oakland also got a solid performance from Jason Campbell, who was not 100% healthy, but played admirably against a Denver defense that had no answers. He hit Zach Miller with a 43-yard touchdown to set the tone and also connected with McFadden to keep the rout going. The Raiders completely embarrassed the Broncos on their home field and Denver fans have to start asking the hard questions about where their beloved team is heading. First of all, do they have the right guy coaching the team? At the time he was hired, I was not impressed at all with McDaniels and he hasn’t done anything since that time to change my opinion. He ran off a franchise quarterback and wide receiver and the offense that he replaced them with has not been consistent enough to validate the wisdom of that decision. His draft record is checkered, which has meant that he has not found the playmakers on either side of the ball that is needed to be successful in the NFL. He has not established an identity on either side of the football, which means that the team has no foundation to hang their hat on from week to week. He is looking more and more like another Bill Belichick disciple that couldn’t hack it once they were removed from the warm cocoon of Foxboro. I’m not advocating for him to get fired right now, but if he doesn’t show improvement over the last nine weeks of the season then his seat should get too hot for him to survive another year.

(2) The San Diego Chargers are inventing new ways to blow football games. They once again dominated the statistics battle only to lose another game due to their cavalcade of mistakes. This week they outgained New England 363 to 179, but turned the ball over four times allowing the Patriots to steal a victory that they had no business earning. The Chargers have now lost 16 fumbles this season. Two of Sunday’s fumbles were complete head-scratchers. The first one occurred when rookie Richard Goodman made a nice 25-yard catch and then simply left the ball on the ground thinking that he was down by contact when no one had actually touched him. A little later, Jacob Hester let a backfield pass from Philip Rivers bounce thinking the play was dead. New England recovered the football and advanced it deep into Chargers’ territory. In addition to the offensive mistakes, the Chargers continued to stumble all over themselves on special teams. This week, they failed to convert an onside kick and they allowed a long punt return, which set-up the offensively-challenged Patriots with another short field. Despite all of the mistakes, San Diego battled back with 17 fourth quarter points to give them a chance to win the game at the end. After stopping New England on a fourth and one from the 49-yard line, the Chargers gained enough yards to set-up a 45-yard field goal to send the game to overtime. Unfortunately, San Diego made yet another mistake, a 5-yard false start penalty, which pushed the field goal attempt to 50 yards for newly signed kicker Kris Brown. Brown did his best Nate Kaeding impression by subsequently clanging the field goal attempt off the right upright and sending the Patriots home with a huge victory.

As a result, the Chargers find themselves in a predicament that few would have forecasted before the season started. They are tied for last place in the AFC West despite the fact that they entered Sunday’s game with the number one offense and defense in the NFL. With two tough games coming up before their bye week, the Chargers should not fool themselves into thinking that their season is on the verge of turning around just because the last few years have gone that way. Even if the Chargers win two-thirds of their remaining games, they would finish the season 8-8, which doesn’t seem sufficient to win the division. With Kansas City sitting at 4-2, which includes a win over San Diego, it looks like the Chargers’ string of four straight AFC West titles is in serious jeopardy.

(3) The Cleveland Browns might not have sniffed the playoffs for quite awhile, but they sure know how to beat a championship team after defeating the defending Super Bowl champion for the third consecutive year. The victory over the New Orleans Saints was probably more the result of the struggles of the Saints rather than the improvement of the Browns, but, in the NFL, a win is a win. In the end, the Browns should be commended for pulling out all of the stops to win a big road game in a hostile environment. An environment so hostile that it actually turned on the home team after Cleveland built a 20-3 halftime lead behind a solid defensive effort and some trick special teams plays. The first big play came when Josh Cribbs threw the ball across the field on his punt return to Eric Wright, who bolted up the sideline for 62 yards setting up a 23-yard field goal by Phil Dawson. Later in the half, punter Reggie Hodges shocked the Saints by running through a gigantic hole on a fake punt for 68 yards, which was soon followed by another short field goal from Dawson. Hodges jaunt through the Saints punt return team was the longest rush by a punter since 1970. The Browns closed their virtuoso half with a 30-yard interception return by David Bowens, which brought out the boo birds as the Saints trotted to the locker room. In reality, the fan frustration was justified due to the fact that the Browns had done nothing on offense the entire first half. They couldn’t take advantage of the short fields provided by their special teams and their only offensive touchdown came after a pass interception penalty on Malcolm Jenkins put the ball deep in New Orleans territory. The Browns were outgained by nearly 200 yards, but they played the game smartly and allowed the Saints to make all of the mistakes. Overall, Cleveland intercepted four passes thrown by Drew Brees including a second pick-six by Bowens that closed out the scoring for Cleveland. Brees has now thrown nearly the same amount of interceptions as last season following only the second four interception game of his career.

Meanwhile, the Browns did not have any turnovers and gladly accepted all of the gifts given by the Saints. In the end, it was a game that should give the Browns some confidence heading into the bye week followed by a home game against the New England Patriots. First of all, Colt McCoy, despite his pedestrian stat line against New Orleans, should feel more capable of leading the Browns to victory. He didn’t do anything special, but he also didn’t commit any game-changing mistakes, which cannot be said for Drew Brees. McCoy’s next step, as he develops into a capable quarterback, is to make a play or two that helps Cleveland win a game. Secondly, the Cleveland defense has to feel that they can stop anybody after limiting the explosive Saints to three points for most of the game. They frustrated Brees with the interceptions and three sacks, which should be a good starting point for the game plan they will develop for the next Hall of Fame worthy quarterback they face, Tom Brady. The bottom line is that the Browns have had these moments before, including last season’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, where the Browns defense stymied Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense at every turn. In order for this team to start heading in the right direction, they have to put together back-to-back solid performances. Fortunately, the Browns have two weeks to assimilate the positive things they did against the Saints and get Colt McCoy more comfortable as the starter before they have to play the Patriots.

Week Seven Picks

Here are my picks for week seven (home teams in CAPS):


ATLANTA over Cincinnati

Washington over CHICAGO

TAMPA BAY over St. Louis

San Francisco over CAROLINA

BALTIMORE over Buffalo

Philadelphia over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville

Pittsburgh over MIAMI

NEW ORLEANS over Cleveland

SEATTLE over Arizona

New England over SAN DIEGO

DENVER over Oakland

GREEN BAY over Minnesota

N.Y. Giants over DALLAS

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 45-29 (missed week two)