Monday, September 9, 2013

3 Facts, 3 Questions & 3 Worries About the Seahawks

Three Facts

1.       Russell Wilson is special.

On a day when he was harassed and knocked around more than any other game of his professional career, Wilson showed why the Seahawks feel like he is not only their quarterback of the future but also a likely NFL superstar.  He shook off two consecutive three-and-out drives to start the game and incompletions on four out of his first five attempts to finish the game with only four additional attempts that did not reach their intended target.  He surpassed three hundred yards passing for only the second time in his brief career and his 9.7 yards per attempt represented the sixth best output of his career.  Wilson was the number one reason that the Seahawks were able to walk away with the victory.  His connection with Doug Baldwin to keep a field goal drive alive in the third quarter was a prototypical example of Wilson turning an almost assured disastrous result into a work of art.  Watching the replays, it appeared that Wilson was trying to throw the ball away, but somehow it found its way to the waiting arms of Baldwin with just enough room for him to tap-tap his toes inbounds like football's version of Mikhail Baryshnikov.  Wilson performed spectacularly despite being chased around like he had a juicy steak around his neck and the Carolina defenders were a real life panthers.  He kept the Seahawks alive despite getting no support from what was supposed to be one of the league's premier running games.  He lifted Seattle to victory despite being constantly behind the chains due to another rash of costly penalties.  Wilson was far from perfect.  He was indecisive at times, which led to his only turnover of the day as well as lost opportunities to use his legs to effect the game.  He had a costly intentional grounding penalty that effectively killed Seattle's chances for scoring a touchdown on that drive.  Nevertheless, he flashed enough of the moxie and talent that has imbued this season with so much hope for Seattle.

2.       Even without Percy Harvin, the Seahawks receivers are going to be ok.

Harvin was supposed to add another dimension to the Seattle offense and there was a justifiable feeling of dread amongst the 12th Man when he went down with the hip injury, but the Seahawks receiving corps acquitted themselves nicely on Sunday.  Baldwin led the way and caught nearly everything thrown in his direction.  He continues to throw sand in the face of a draft process that deemed him not good enough to be drafted.  In addition to Baldwin, Golden Tate again flashed his ability to make yards after the catch especially on a nifty 18-yard catch and run during the game clinching drive in the fourth quarter.  Tate is by far the best candidate to approximate what Harvin was going to mean to this offense, so it behooves the Seahawks to get imaginative in the number of ways that they get him the football.  The final kudos should go to Jermaine Kearse, who took advantage of his limited opportunities and made the biggest play of the afternoon for Seattle.  One play after Stephon Williams was unable to corral a deep ball from Wilson, the Hawks went to the well again and Wilson threw a beautiful pass to Kearse for the game-winning touchdown.  With Kearse's emergence, the Hawks have three guys that are adept at winning 50-50 balls with defenders: Tate, Kearse, and Rice.  It is a tremendous luxury for Russell Wilson to know that he doesn't have to always throw the ball perfectly to complete passes. 

3.       The Seattle pass defense is legit.

The Seahawks were missing a charter member of the Legion of Boom, but their pass defense didn't seem to miss a beat.  They held Cam Newton to lowest passing total (125 yards) of this NFL career.  His yards per attempt average of 5.44 yards was the fourth lowest of his career.  Interestingly, Newton has had two of his worst games, in terms of yards per attempt, against the Seattle Seahawks.  The Hawks allowed Newton to complete nearly 70% of his attempts, but they limited his opportunities to a host of short passes and they tackled fairly well to keep the yards after the catch to a minimum.  In fact, Newton only attempted four passes deeper than 10 yards downfield.  The Hawks demonstrated their depth in the secondary with Walter Thurmond stepping into the starting line-up and Byron Maxwell playing solidly when an extra defensive back was needed on the field.

Three Questions

1.       Why was the pass rush M.I.A. again?

The glass half full approach would tell us that the meager pass rush that produced just one sack and one quarterback hit was the product of having Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin out of the line-up.  The missing trio combined for 29 sacks in 2012, so it was no wonder that the Carolina offensive line won the war in the trenches.  Conversely, the glass half empty perspective would tell us that the Hawks have been burdened by a less than ideal pass rush for many years, including last year which featured Clemons and Irvin in the line-up.  The negative nellies would remind us that Newton was the sixth most sacked quarterback in 2012 and a defensive line featuring Avril Lavigne and Samuel Langhorne Clemens should have sacked him more than once.  The hope is that Clemons and Avril will be ready to play Colin Kaepernick and the high-flying 49ers offense on Sunday, so this is an area that will have to be monitored to see if things improve. 

2.       Do you think Christine Michael could have had a positive impact on the running game?

It was clearly not going to be Marshawn Lynch's day against the very aggressive front seven of the Carolina Panthers.  Their defensive line, led by Star Lotuleilei, was knifing through the gaps in the offensive line and disrupting the rhythm of the running game for Seattle.  The Carolina linebackers were playing extremely fast and it seemed as if there were two or three Luke Kuechlys in the game.  This game seemed tailor made for a running back with a little more burst and a little more wiggle.  In other words, it seemed perfect for Christine Michael's skill set.  It seems pointless to have Michael on the active roster and then bury him on the bench for the entire game.  Wouldn't it have been worth it to give him a couple of carries in the first half to see if he could make something out of nothing?  If nothing else, Michael's appearance in the game would have given the Panthers defense something else to think about .

3.       Should there be concern about the run defense?

 This question might be a case of nitpicking but the reality is that the Seattle defense gave up 134 yards rushing.  The Panthers didn't have any run longer than 16 yards, but they employed a death by 1,000 paper cuts approach and managed to average 5.2 yards per carry.  Even if you remove Cam Newton's contribution to the rushing totals, Carolina still nearly averaged 5 yards per carry.  This question carries even more weight when you stop to remember the last time the Seattle defense played a meaningful game.  In the Divisional Round against the Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks defense was road graded by the combination of Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers to the tune of 167 yards rushing and 6.4 yards per carry.  Perhaps the return of Jordan Hill will improve the run defense, but it is definitely not a good sign when a rookie is considered a possible savior.

Three Worries

1.       The Seattle offensive line was thoroughly outplayed by Carolina's front four.

Of all the different groups on the football team, the Seattle offensive line definitely gets the worst grade for their performance on Sunday.  The Panthers were able to generate intense pressure with just four down linemen, which had Russell Wilson running for his life for much of the game.  Although the protection improved in the second half, it was only Wilson's Houdini act that prevented the Panthers from having a half-dozen sacks or more.  In addition to applying consistent pressure on Wilson, Carolina achieved the double whammy by completely shutting down the vaunted Seattle running game.  The Seahawks managed only 2.7 yards per carry, which was the lowest production they have had since the last time they visited the Panthers back in Week Five of 2012.  Seattle fans better hope that it's just the Carolina defense that has this effect on the Seattle running game.

2.       The inordinate amount of penalties continue to be a bug-a-boo for Seattle.

At the end of the day, the Seahawks are too undisciplined to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  They made their lives much more difficult in Carolina by incurring nine penalties for nearly 100 yards.  The most egregious ones were the three personal foul penalties, including two that sustained the Panthers' final drive.  The Hawks also had one play in the third quarter where the entire left side of the offensive line was called for holding.  There are always going to be penalties in every game, but Seattle has to clean up the ones they can control if they want to reach their ultimate goal.

3.       The Seattle tight ends made no impact on the game.

The tight end position was a huge question mark throughout the preseason for Seattle and nothing that happened in Week One changed that concern.  The best part was that Zach Miller was in the line-up at all.  He was targeted four times by Russell Wilson and caught three of those targets.  The rookie, Luke Willson, made no discernible contribution at all other than being flagged for an illegal shift in the first half.  It is pretty clear that Seattle is still not happy with the talent they have at the position because they were working out Daniel Fells today.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Week 1 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 1 (home team in CAPS):

BRONCOS over Ravens
Patriots over BILLS
STEELERS over Titans
SAINTS over Falcons
Buccaneers over JETS
Chiefs over JAGUARS
Bengals over BEARS
BROWNS over Dolphins
Seahawks over PANTHERS
LIONS over Vikings
COLTS over Raiders
RAMS over Cardinals
49ERS over Packers
COWBOYS over Giants
REDSKINS over Eagles
Texans over CHARGERS

Last Week: NA
Overall: 1-0

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Five Reasons Why Denver Will Beat Baltimore on NFL's Opening Night

The NFL kicks off its 2013 season with a rematch from the AFC Divisional Round, where the Baltimore Ravens pulled out a miraculous overtime victory thanks to some clutch throws from Joe Flacco and some absurdly horrible defense from the Denver Broncos.  While the Ravens are attempting to incorporate a ton of new faces on defense and expecting some less heralded players to step up on offense, the Broncos reloaded by adding Wes Welker in free agency and Montee Ball in the draft.  The game figures to be a quality match-up to start the year, but here are five reasons why Denver will gain a measure of revenge for their epic collapse in last year's playoffs.

1. Joe Flacco is transforming from road warrior to roadkill

During the 2010 season, Flacco played on the road like every other team's worst nightmare.  He completed two-thirds of his attempts, had a nearly 4-to-1 TD to interception ratio, and had a road QBR that was nearly 100% better than his home QBR.  Even though he was quite a bit more pedestrian at home, Flacco looked like a quarterback on the precipice of joining the game's elite. However, over the last two seasons, he has transformed himself on the road from Mad Max to that cute little squirrel who picked the wrong time to cross the highway.  In 2011, his QBR declined by nearly 30%, his completion percentage dived by nearly 10 points, and his TD to interception ratio went down to a much more ordinary 1.6-to-1.  The transformation was complete by the end of 2012.  First of all, his road QBR flatlined at 35.4, which was 42% worse than 2011 and nearly 60% worse than 2010.  His completion percentage held steady, but his yards per attempt on the road dipped under 6, which represented a decline of nearly 1.5 yards from 2010.  Finally, he nearly had as many road interceptions as road touchdowns.  Conversely, Joe Flacco at home in 2012 looked very much like Joe Flacco on the road in 2010.  His supporters will point to his two stellar performances on the road in last year's playoffs as evidence that he is turning the corner, but it doesn't feel like enough evidence to make a definitive statement.  Flacco might very well get back to being a very good quarterback away from home in 2013, but his comeback won't be enough of a finished product to beat the Broncos on Thursday night.

2. Denver's passing attack will overwhelm the new look Baltimore defense

The Broncos passing game looks poised to have an historic season.  In 2012, Denver was in the top five in eight statistical categories related to passing including yards per game, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns.  All of this success occurred before they added Wes Welker to the mix.  Welker joins the explosive Broncos offense after averaging 112 catches and 1,243 yards per year in his six seasons hanging with Tom Brady in Foxboro.  Welker is a huge upgrade over last year's slot guy, Brandon Stokley, and figures to give Denver a great chance to become only the fifth team in NFL history to have three wide receivers amass 1,000 yards in the same season.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are in the middle of assimilating seven new starters on the defensive side of the ball.  No longer will Peyton Manning have to deal with the intensity of Ray Lewis and the ball-hawking skills of Ed Reed.  In their place, Manning gets to abuse a cast-off from Jaguars Island (Daryl Smith) and several new faces in the secondary (Michael Huff, James Ihedigbo, and Matt Elam).  While it seems pretty obvious that Baltimore has sufficient talent on defense to be successful, the bigger issue seems to rest in their ability to mesh as a unit and play up to their talent level.  Unfortunately, opening against one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback seems like a recipe for disaster for a defense with so many new guys. 

3. Missing offensive weapons will cause Ravens' offense to sputter

The Ravens have a capable running game led by Ray Rice and an exciting number one receiver in Torrey Smith, but they won’t be able to overcome the trade of Anquan Boldin to the 49ers and the injury to Dennis Pitta that will keep him out of the lineup for most of the season.  Boldin and Pitta did not have stat lines that jumped off the page, but they were invaluable to Joe Flacco in the red zone and when he needed to convert critical third down opportunities.  The big question that will begin to be answered on Thursday night is who on the active roster will step into the void left by Boldin and Pitta’s absence.  Smith certainly has the explosive ability to get behind defenses on the nine route and turn short slant patterns into big gains, but does he have the down-to-down hunger and focus to make catches in critical situations, including the red zone and on third down. Keep in mind that the Ravens were so thrilled with the pass catchers at their disposal that they brought Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark off the street to improve the team.  The bigger shock was that Stokley and Clark both made the 53-man roster, while a youngster like Tandon Doss got cut because he couldn’t take the next step in his development.  The bottom line is that the talent level and productivity drops off steeply once you move beyond Torrey Smith on the depth chart. Even with Champ Bailey missing the game for the Broncos due to injury, Denver should focus their defensive attention on Smith and force the less talented members of the Ravens offense to beat them.

4. The Denver crowd will be in mid-season form

Since Baltimore was unable to host the opening game like past Super Bowl champions, the NFL has tried as hard as it can to make the Ravens feel at home on the road.  One way the league has rolled out the welcome mat is by plastering the image of Joe Flacco in and around the Mile High City, including outside of Sports Authority Field. You can bet that the Bronco Nation is less than thrilled to be constantly reminded that the Ravens not only tore their collective hearts out last January, but also went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.  The expectation is that the Denver crowd will have completely torn the NFL's red carpet to shreds by kickoff and will continue the audio-visual assault on the Ravens until the final whistle.  The crowd noise will cause the Baltimore offense to misfire throughout the night and help the Broncos win going away.

5. Manning is money at home

One of the surest things in sports is going with Peyton Manning playing at home.  In his 14 seasons prior to 2013, Manning has won six or more home games 10 times.  Overall, Manning wins nearly three out of every four home games.  For this reason, and the other four above, it just seems ridiculous to pick the Ravens to win this game.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

2013 NFL Predictions

AFC

AFC East - New England
AFC West - Denver
AFC North - Cincinnati
AFC South - Houston
Wild Card - Indianapolis
Wild Card - Kansas City

AFC Champ - Denver

NFC

NFC East - Washington
NFC West - Seattle
NFC North - Green Bay
NFC South - Atlanta
Wildcard - San Francisco
Wildcard - New Orleans

NFC Champ - Atlanta

Super Bowl - Atlanta over Denver

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Week 1 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 1 (home teams in CAPS):

BEARS over Colts
Eagles over BROWNS
Patriots over TITANS
Falcons over CHIEFS
VIKINGS over Jaguars
SAINTS over Redskins
Bills over JETS
LIONS over Rams
TEXANS over Dolphins
PACKERS over 49ers
Panthers over BUCCANEERS
BRONCOS over Steelers
RAVENS over Bengals
RAIDERS over Chargers
GIANTS over Cowboys
Seahawks over CARDINALS

Last Week: NA
Overall: 9-7

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions


AFC

AFC East - New England
AFC West - Denver
AFC North - Baltimore
AFC South - Houston
Wild Card - Cincinnati
Wild Card - Tennessee

AFC Champ - Houston

NFC

NFC East - N.Y. Giants
NFC West - Seattle
NFC North - Green Bay
NFC South - New Orleans
Wildcard - Philadelphia
Wildcard - Carolina

NFC Champ - Green Bay

Super Bowl - Green Bay over Houston