Friday, December 31, 2010

Week 17 Picks

Here are my picks for week 17 (home teams in CAPS):

ATLANTA over Carolina

Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND

DETROIT over Minnesota

KANSAS CITY over Oakland

NEW ENGLAND over Miami

Tampa Bay over NEW ORLEANS

N.Y. JETS over Buffalo

BALTIMORE over Cincinnati

DENVER over San Diego

GREEN BAY over Chicago

INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee

Dallas over PHILADELPHIA

SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona

N.Y. Giants over WASHINGTON

HOUSTON over Jacksonville

St. Louis over SEATTLE

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 128-81 (missed week two)

Week 16 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Kansas City's division title extended an NFL record streak to eight consecutive seasons that a team has gone from "worst to first" in a division.

Stat of the week No. 2: Drew Brees has now completed 400 passes in a season three times.  No other QB has done it more than once.  The only other QBs with 400 completions in a season are Peyton Manning, Gannon, Moon, Warner and Bledsoe.

Stat of the week No. 3: The Detroit Lions have won three straight games for the first time since 2007.  They have now won back-to-back games for the first time since 2004 under head coach Steve Mariucci.

Stat of the week No. 4: Sam Bradford has the most wins by a rookie quarterback drafted No. 1 since 1970.  He also has 335 completions this season, which breaks Peyton Manning's rookie record of 326.

Stat of the week No. 5: Arian Foster has 2,030 yards from scrimmage this season, joining Priest Holmes (three times, 2001-2003) as the only undrafted players in NFL history to record at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Week 16 Picks

Here are my picks for week 16 (home teams in CAPS):

PITTSBURGH over Carolina

Dallas over ARIZONA

New England over BUFFALO

CHICAGO over N.Y. Jets

Baltimore over CLEVELAND

KANSAS CITY over Tennessee

ST. LOUIS over San Francisco

Detroit over MIAMI

JACKSONVILLE over Washington

San Diego over CINCINNATI

Houston over DENVER

OAKLAND over Indianapolis

GREEN BAY over N.Y. Giants

PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota

ATLANTA over New Orleans

TAMPA BAY over Seattle

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 119-74 (missed week two)

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Week 15 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Tom Brady has now thrown 292 consecutive passes without an interception, which is the third longest streak in NFL history and the longest for a single season (Bernie Kosar went 308 consecutive attempts between 1990 and 1991; Bart Starr went 294 consecutive attempts between 1964 and 1965). In the process, Bill Belichick moved into sole possession of 10th place with his 175th win as a head coach. Finally, Dan Connolly’s 71-yard kickoff return was the longest in NFL history for an offensive lineman.

Stat of the week No. 2: Tyjuan Hagler became the first linebacker with a kick return touchdown since the Cowboys’ Thomas Henderson ran one back on September 28, 1975.

Stat of the week No. 3: Philip Rivers joined Dan Fouts as the only Chargers to ever pass for 4,000 yards in three consecutive seasons.

Stat of the week No. 4: DeSean Jackson became the 2nd player ever with a rushing, receiving and punt return touchdown in each of his first three seasons (Dick Todd, Washington, 1939-1941). Jackson ranks second on the list of players with the most 60-yard touchdowns before the age of 25 (Gale Sayers leads the list with 12 touchdowns and Jackson has 11).

Stat of the week No. 5: Sam Bradford joined Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan as the only rookies in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards.

The Miracle at the Meadowlands II and other NFL thoughts

(1) I guess the New York Giants weren’t able to consider their new stadium a true home until they suffered a catastrophic defeat on par with “The Miracle at the Meadowland” in 1978. On that day, Joe Pisarcik fumbled the football at the end of the game with Philadelphia and Herm Edwards scooped up the loose ball and ran in for the winning points. This time around, the Giants inexplicably punted the football directly to DeSean Jackson with 12 seconds remaining in the game instead of kicking the ball out of bounds. Jackson, one of the most dangerous punt returners in the NFL, made them pay for their mistake by weaving his way through the Giants’ coverage team for a 65-yard game-winning touchdown. Jackson’s electrifying play became the first walk-off punt return in NFL history and the longest game-winning touchdown on the final play of regulation since 1960 (Jim Gibbons scored on a 65-yard reception back on December 4, 1960). The ill-fated punt will be the mistake most remembered by New York fans for years to come, but the Giants should be equally haunted by the fact that they lost a game that they led by 21 points midway through the fourth quarter. Jackson would never have had a chance to be the hero if the Giants had simply tackled Brent Celek before he broke free for a 65-yard touchdown reception. The Giants would never have had to put the game in their punter’s hands if they had heeded their coaches’ warnings prior to David Akers executing a perfect onside kick following Celek’s touchdown. The front line of New York’s kick return team was nowhere to be seen when Riley Cooper came down with the “surprise” onside kick. You could probably fault the Giants’ coaching staff for not putting their hands team on the field prior to the onside attempt. Finally, Jackson’s impact would have been rendered moot had the Giants done a better job of corralling Mike Vick in the fourth quarter (94 of his 130 yards rushing came in the 4th) or had been able to convert first downs to keep the clock moving and the Eagles’ offense off the field. The bottom line is that there is plenty of blame to pass around. The punter made a bone-headed decision to kick the ball directly to Jackson, but he had plenty of assistance in allowing the Eagles to become just the fifth team in history to overcome a 21 point or more fourth quarter deficit to win a game.

The question now becomes how this devastating loss affects the New York Giants the rest of the season. They have all but lost the NFC East to the Eagles, but their playoff hopes are still very much alive for the wild card. If they can manage a victory next week against Green Bay, they will clinch a wild card berth and save their season from the brink of disaster. The problem for the Giants is two-fold: first of all they have to travel to Green Bay and secondly they probably won’t get the luxury of facing back-up quarterback Matt Flynn. As a result, I believe that the odds are extremely long for the Giants to make the playoffs because they face a formidable opponent and the hangover from this week’s loss is likely to linger at least a week, if not longer. In addition to making or breaking their season, the next two weeks will go a long way to determining the future of Tom Coughlin in New York. If they fold up their tents, then I would expect the catcalls for Coughlin’s head to become too loud for the Mara family to ignore. It is hard to believe that a Super Bowl-winning coach could potentially find himself on the hot seat, but these late season swoons are becoming far too common. Last season, the Giants lost four out of six down the stretch. In 2008, they lost three out of their last four. Even in their Super Bowl-winning season of 2007, the Giants lost two out of their last three. Another swan dive like those previous ones might be enough to get Coughlin a pink slip.

(2) The New York Jets should be commended for picking themselves off the mat and winning a tough game in a tough environment. They were playing under the black cloud of two consecutive embarrassing defeats and the specter of Tripping-Gate. In addition, they were facing a top-five defense in wintery conditions. All the signs pointed to the Jets losing their third consecutive game and having all of their bold predictions of a Super Bowl run go down the drain. Instead, the Jets opened with a 97-yard kickoff return from Brad Smith, which set the tone for a hard-hitting five-point victory. The Jets were far from perfect, but they received a total team effort to earn a much needed win. In addition to Smith’s opening salvo, New York’s special teams contributed two big field goals from Nick Folk, three punts downed inside the 20-yard line from Sam Weatherford and two nice punt returns from Jerricho Cotchery to help with field position. The Jets also got a gritty effort from their defense, which allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense, but held the Steelers to just 17 points and registered a huge safety to make it a five-point game with two and a half minutes left in the game. The big play by Jason Taylor forced Pittsburgh to have to score a touchdown to win the game and their last drive ended at the Jets’ 10-yard line. Finally, the Jets got just enough from their offense to run their record to 10-4. Mark Sanchez did not turn the ball over for the first time since week five and he led a huge touchdown drive in the third quarter to tie the game at 17 points apiece. As I said, this Jets’ performance was far from perfect, but they made enough plays to win the game. It was a first step in the road to recovery from the 45-3 beat down they received from the New England Patriots on national television. The effects of that devastating loss carried over into the home loss against the Miami Dolphins, but the Jets can finally see the light again after their impressive victory against Pittsburgh. They still have some unfinished business with a road trip to Chicago next week and a home game against Buffalo to finish the season, but this huge win might be the kick start they needed to make another deep run in the playoffs.

(3) Week 15 News and Notes:

• The 2010 NFC West might be the worst division in the history of the NFL. The St. Louis Rams lead the division with a 6-8 record, but the San Francisco 49ers actually control their own destiny and they have a 5-9 record! The division is so awful that it might be the impetus for the NFL to change its rule about guaranteeing division winners a home playoff game in the wild card round.

• The NFC playoffs will be going through Atlanta. The Falcons will finish no worse than 13-3 and will get the opportunity to play in the comfort of the Georgia Dome, where they are 19-1 with Matt Ryan starting at quarterback. I’m eagerly anticipating an NFC Championship match-up between Atlanta and Philadelphia.

• Congratulations to the Detroit Lions for snapping their 26-game road losing streak with a 23-20 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On the flip side, it was a terrible loss for the Bucs, who were fighting for their playoff lives.

• The Ravens finally discovered that Ray Rice is pretty good. He had a season high 31 carries and 233 total yards to lead the Ravens to a huge inter-conference victory over the streaking New Orleans Saints.

• The Tim Tebow era had a decent start with two touchdowns and 78 yards rushing. Will the next GM and head coach in Denver believe that Tebow is the future at quarterback?

• The Patriots were extremely lucky to beat the Packers on Sunday night. They needed two Matt Flynn turnovers, a 71-yard kickoff return by an offensive lineman, four potential interceptions by Tom Brady and shaky clock management by Green Bay on their final drive to win.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Week 15 Picks

Here are my picks for week 15 (home teams in CAPS):

SAN DIEGO over San Francisco

Atlanta over SEATTLE

Cleveland over CINCINNATI

DALLAS over Washington

Houston over TENNESSEE

Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS

ST. LOUIS over Kansas City

MIAMI over Buffalo

N.Y. GIANTS over Philadelphia

TAMPA BAY over Detroit

Arizona over CAROLINA

New Orleans over BALTIMORE

OAKLAND over Denver

PITTSBURGH over N.Y. Jets

NEW ENGLAND over Green Bay

Chicago over MINNESOTA

Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 113-64 (missed week two)

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Week 13 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Pat Bowlen will be paying three head coaches in 2011 (Mike Shanahan, Josh McDaniels and his new head coach) and two head coaches in 2012 (Josh McDaniels and his new head coach).

Stat of the week No. 2: The Cincinnati Bengals became the first team since the 1958 San Francisco 49ers to give up a run of 20 or more yards in each of their first 12 games.

Stat of the week No. 3: Mike Tomlin is now the 7th head coach since 1970 to win 9+ games in each of his first four seasons.

Stat of the week No. 4: Adrian Peterson became the 4th player in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first four seasons (Tomlinson, Campbell and Dickerson).

Stat of the week No. 5: Since joining the Saints in 2006, Drew Brees has passed for 21,932 yards, which is the most by a QB over any 5-year span in NFL history.

The Steelers and Ravens renew fiercest NFL rivalry and other NFL thoughts

(1) The Pittsburgh-Baltimore rivalry is the number one rivalry in the league without question. It all starts with the similarities between how both teams like to go about their business. They both pride themselves on having tough, hard-hitting defensive units that disguise coverages and bring pressure from different angles in an attempt to confuse the opposing offense. The Steelers have a defensive legacy going back to the Chuck Noll-coached teams of the 1970’s, but the Ravens have quickly built their defensive reputation behind the ferocious play of players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs and the innovative play-calling of their ex-defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan. The result of both team’s defensive focus is that no yard is easily gained and points are extremely difficult to come by. Sunday night’s game was no different as it was defined by Suggs’ relentless play for four quarters and Troy Polamalu’s strip-sack in the fourth quarter that led to the game-winning points for Pittsburgh.

With the defenses leading the way, the match-ups between these two teams have become the most hotly contested games in the NFL. The games are so close that each team has scored 67 points over their last four encounters and each team has two victories during that span. Moreover, the last six games between these two titans of the NFL have all been decided by four points or less. As if the general competitiveness of this series is not enough, these two teams ratchet up the intensity with an utter disdain for the other side. They genuinely do not like each other, which usually leads to a lot of chippiness and extracurricular activities before, during and after each play. The deeper layer of emotion that surrounds this match-up has made it must-watch television for several years now. The latest round didn’t disappoint because both teams were fighting to gain the inside track to the AFC North title and a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. The Steelers escaped with the huge victory because of two guys that lived up to their reputations as Ravens-killers. The first was Ben Roethlisberger, who improved his career record against Baltimore to 8-2, including the playoffs. More importantly, Big Ben won his sixth consecutive start against the Ravens and further established himself as their biggest nemesis. Despite a re-aggravated foot injury and a broken nose sustained on the first drive of the game, Roethlisberger produced a gutsy performance that included throwing the game-winning touchdown inside of three minutes left in the game. In fact, Big Ben’s biggest play of the game came before the touchdown toss when he fended off Terrell Suggs just long enough to throw the ball out of bounds and avoid a sack. The sack-avoiding play saved Pittsburgh from a nine-yard loss and set-up the winning play. In addition to Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu made the play of the game to strip the football from Joe Flacco’s grasp, which ultimately gave the Steelers the football on the Baltimore nine-yard line. Polamalu’s well-timed blitz could be the biggest play in Pittsburgh’s regular season. It also could be the sequence that gives Pittsburgh at least one postseason game at Heinz Field and potentially a first-round bye. The Ravens should have known that Polamalu was going to be the guy that made the big play because he was the same man that iced the Steelers’ 2008 AFC Championship with a 40-yard interception return against the Ravens. Unfortunately, for Baltimore fans, they allowed history to repeat itself on Sunday night and they are still left trying to find answers for the dynamic duo of Roethlisberger and Polamalu.

(2) The final four weeks of the NFL season should provide the most excitement that we have seen in quite awhile. Every division, with exception of the AFC West, has two teams tied for the division lead or the second place team just one game back in the standings. In fact, we have 18 teams that are still within two games of the division lead. The result of all this parity is that most, if not all, division-leading teams will be playing meaningful games through week 17 as opposed to years past when the stakes had been locked up in week 15 and teams were allowed to rest their players down the stretch. The next four weeks are going to be even more exciting because six out of the eight divisions still feature games between the first place and second place teams. Next week, division-leading Kansas City travels to San Diego to face-off against the Chargers in what amounts to an elimination game for the Bolts. After blowing an opportunity to get revenge over Oakland this past week, the Chargers have literally no margin for error going forward. In week 15, we get to see rematches between Jacksonville and Indianapolis and Philadelphia and New York. Both the Jaguars and Eagles will likely be playing to clinch their respective division titles, so both games should contain the requisite amount of intensity. The difficult part is that both squads will have to win on the road in order to be division champs. Under normal circumstances, the road obstacle would be an ominous sign for the visiting squads, but I actually like Jacksonville and Philly in these games. The Giants have been mediocre in the sterile environment of their new stadium and the Colts have lost two home games in a row and are notoriously horrible stopping the run. In week 16, we get the pleasure of watching a titanic showdown between New Orleans and Atlanta on Monday night football. The Saints will be trying to repeat as NFC South champions and the Falcons will be looking to extend their home dominance. As I’ve said before, I don’t bet against Matt Ryan at home. Finally, in week 17, the season culminates with possibly three games with division title stakes involved. The day starts with Chicago visiting Green Bay and Oakland traveling to Kansas City. The day ends with St. Louis heading to Qwest Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks. Ultimately, the winner of all these great games will be the fans of the NFL that get to sit back and watch it all play out.

(3) Week 13 News and Notes:

• I’m a little confused about how the NFL is handling discipline of on-the-field behavior that violates league rules. It seems like they are intent on fining James Harrison if he so much as breathes aggressively on an opposing player, but they completely missed Ben Roethlisberger getting his nose rearranged by Haloti Ngata’s gigantic paw. In addition, they don’t penalize the Ravens for a bone-jarring hit on Heath Miller that lead to a concussion, but Ed Hochuli’s crew calls one of the most dubious roughing the passer penalties on Ndamkung Suh that I have ever seen. Let’s not forget the slaps on the wrist that Richard Seymour, Courtland Finnegan and Andre Johnson received for fighting. The league might want to get everyone on the same page before they lose even more credibility with its fans and players.

• Speaking of the players, what are we to make of the leaked internal letter that instructed players to save their last three paychecks in anticipation of an NFL lockout? The letter referenced a union deadline that had passed to resolve the labor dispute, so it is logical to believe that the union has resolved itself to dissolution and litigation instead of negotiation. It is unfortunate that the letter saw the light of day because both sides had just concluded their most promising negotiation session just a couple of weeks prior giving fans everywhere hope that the 2011 season would proceed uninterrupted.

• I believe that Eric Mangini has bought himself at least one more season as the head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Despite enduring the third-worst quarterback situation in the NFL, Mangini’s Browns have been competitive in nearly every game this season except for the 18-point drubbing they received at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the process, they likely have identified answers at quarterback, running back, offensive line and tight end. Can offensive-minded Mike Holmgren acquire the defensive components to push Cleveland into playoff contention next season?

• Four issues that have become crystal clear after week 13:

1. The Texans, Bengals and Broncos will all be looking for new head coaches this offseason.

2. The Detroit Lions are the most snake-bitten team of 2010. First, the touchdown catch that wasn’t in week one. Second, Jason Hanson’s injury that forced Suh to kick extra points, which led to loss against New York. Finally, the questionable unnecessary roughness penalty against Suh that allowed the Bears to escape once again.

3. The Colts will not make the playoffs this year. Too many injuries plus a non-existent running game equals no significant football in January for Indianapolis.

4. The best coaching job of the year goes to Jack Del Rio for getting his Jaguars into first place despite having one legitimate playmaker (Maurice Jones-Drew) and a suspect defense.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Week 13 Picks

Here are my picks for week 13 (home teams in CAPS):

PHILADELPHIA over Houston

New Orleans over CINCINNATI

Chicago over DETROIT

GREEN BAY over San Francisco

Jacksonville over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY over Denver

MIAMI over Cleveland

MINNESOTA over Buffalo

N.Y. GIANTS over Washington

SAN DIEGO over Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS over Dallas

St. Louis over ARIZONA

Atlanta over TAMPA BAY

BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh

N.Y. Jets over NEW ENGLAND

SEATTLE over Carolina

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 101-59 (missed week two)