Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Stats of the Week - Week 3

Stat of the week No. 1: The Bills have more touchdowns from their defensive ends (2) than from Terrell Owens (1).
Stat of the week No. 2: Cleveland has one offensive touchdown in its past nine games.
Stat of the week No. 3: Tampa Bay’s initial first down of the game came at 2:52 pm Eastern Time, 111 minutes into the game in real time and 40 minutes into the game on the game clock.
Stat of the week No. 4: Stretching back to last season’s playoffs, in Carolina’s past four games, one in every 10 Jake Delhomme passes has been intercepted.
Stat of the week No. 5: In Jim Zorn’s tenure in Washington, the Redskins have scored less than 20 points in 13 of the 19 games.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

The Lions break the streak and other NFL thoughts

It was a week that reminded us of why we love the league so much. Sanchize and the Jets are sitting on top of the world with a 3-0 record. The defending Super Bowl and NFC Champions are both 1-2. We still have seven teams that are undefeated and one team proved that in the NFL, as in life, every dog has its day.

(1) The Detroit Lions are no longer the Detroit Felines. After losing 19 games in a row, dating back to 2007, the Lions finally got into the win column with a solid 19-14 victory over the Washington Redskins. They finally won because they took advantage of a vulnerable foe the same way they have been taken advantage for the better part of two seasons. They finally won because they put together their best offensive performance since 2007. The most impressive statistic was that the Lions did not turn the ball over with a rookie quarterback and a team confidence that can best be described as shaky. It is safe to say that tons turnovers are littered throughout their lengthy losing streak. Another impressive part of their big victory is that they amassed 23 first downs by converting 55% of their third downs. By keeping the offense on the field, the Lions were able to rest their defense, which certainly played a big part in the victory. The Lions allowed Jason Campbell to go a little wild in the 2nd half but they held the Redskins’ running game in check. The final thing that impressed me was the balance they demonstrated on offense. They rolled up 381 total yards with 227 coming via the pass and 154 coming on the ground. It will be interesting to see how the Lions build on this win. They have been enveloped by a culture of losing for so long that it is still going to take quite awhile for them to get back to respectability. You have to remember that, even though most of the media was focusing on their 19-game losing streak, the Lions had actually lost 25 out of their last 26 games. I, for one, am hoping that the Lions find a little success for themselves and the city that has supported them through many losing seasons.

(2) Well, we know for sure that the Lions will not be mentioned in any conversation about the best team in the NFL, but who should be in the conversation. There are still seven undefeated teams in the NFL but I don’t think all of them deserve to be in the conversation. First things first, throw the Denver Broncos right out the window because they have played the NFL’s equivalent of the Little Sisters of the Poor. I’m also not even thinking about the Minnesota Vikings because they shouldn’t even be undefeated anymore. The other five, the Colts, the Saints, the Giants, the Ravens and the Jets all have compelling reasons why they should be considered the best through the first three weeks. The Saints have crushed the Eagles on the road and have proven that they don’t need Drew Brees to carry them every week. The Colt just finished crushing the defending NFC champs on their home turf and they probably have the best player in the NFL running their show. In addition, they continue to demonstrate that the more things change the more things stay the same. The Ravens have a young, hot shot quarterback and they also have an impressive win on the road in San Diego. Despite all of their accomplishments through the first three weeks, I put the Colts, Ravens and Saints just a notch below the New York Jets and the New York Giants. Let’s start with the Jets. They have been the Texans, the Titans and the Patriots in the first three weeks. Who has beaten a better trio than that? They have the 4th ranked defense in the entire NFL. They have shutdown the high-flying Texans’ offense, Tom Brady and the Titans’ running game. They have the best young defensive back in the NFL, Darrelle Revis, who shackled Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in the first two weeks. They also have the hottest commodity in the NFL, a quarterback named Mark Sanchez aka the “Sanchize.” He has played unlike a rookie quarterback in the early portion of the season. He has been fiery, he has been resilient, and he has shown great leadership. Normally, the Mark Sanchez phenomenon and the Jets’ success would be enough for one town, but the J-E-T-S still have to contend with their roommates in the Meadowlands for the back pages of the New York dailies. The G-Men are definitely at the top of the NFC after their complete dismantling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have the 2nd rated defense in the NFL even though they are now missing Chris Canty and Justin Tuck. The Giants have been about great defense for several years now and 2009 is shaping up to be more of the same. They also have the 5th ranked offense in the NFL led by a more confident Eli Manning. He seems to be in total control of the Giants offense. As I said last week, I have never seen him calmer than he was in leading the Giants to a victory in Dallas last week. Eli is currently the 3rd highest rated passer in the NFL. He seems poised to ascend to the next level of NFL quarterbacks. He isn’t the only weapon that the G-Men have at their disposal. Even though Earth Wind & Fire was broken up with Derrick Ward’s departure, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have shown that they are more than capable of holding down the fort. The other major concern was how they would operate without Plaxico Burress. Their young receivers are demonstrating that they are better collectively than they would have been had Burress still been the dominant figure. Last week it was Mario Manningham shining bright and this week it was Sinorice Moss stepping to the forefront. I think that the best days are ahead of this group of wide receivers. Ultimately, I give the overall edge to the Giants because of their experience at quarterback and their track record of stellar defense.

(3) You can debate who the best team in the league is until you are blue in the face because everyone is going to have their own opinion. Another topic that can create endless debate is who deserves to be the NFL MVP. I know that we are only three weeks into the season, but it is never too early to start the debate. At this point in time, my list of early candidates is heavy on quarterbacks. My front-runner right now is Peyton Manning. Over the years, he has had so many reasons to take a step back but he continues to produce at a high level. This season alone, he has had to overcome the departure of Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison. In addition, he has no running game to speak of with the disappearance of Joseph Addai. Finally, he loses one of his top targets, in Anthony Gonzalez, and he doesn’t seem to miss a beat. All he has done so far is complete nearly 70% of his attempts for 983 yards and seven touchdowns. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in all three games and he has already won two road games against playoff participants from a year ago. He is essentially a player and a coach. The biggest reason that I think he is the leader in the clubhouse is that nothing strikes more fear into the hearts of Colts fans than Jim Sorgi warming up to play. Nipping at his heels is Mr. Drew Brees. Like Peyton, Brees is also piloting an undefeated team. He also has won two games on the road. He is the highest rated quarterback in the NFL and he leads the NFL in touchdown passes. A third candidate that is gaining some momentum in my eyes is Peyton’s little brother. If Eli can continue to play with the cool efficiency that he has shown through the first few weeks, then he is going to inject himself into the debate whether the public wants him to be or not.

(4) The darkhorse candidate for MVP, the player who is zooming up the charts is Joe Flacco. He is also the biggest surprise in the early part of the NFL season. After watching Flacco play rather inconsistently last year as a rookie, I didn’t expect him to unleash his alter ego, Joltin Joe, on the NFL. He has already set a personal high for passing yards in a single game twice with 307 yards against the Chiefs and 342 yards against the Browns. He has completed better than 60% of his passes in each game that he has played. He has also posted a passer rating better than 95 in each game, which he never accomplished as a rookie. His development has transformed the Ravens offense from run-first and conservative to well-balanced and explosive. With the defense that the Ravens normally field, Flacco’s huge step forward is going to make the Ravens extremely tough to beat. I certainly didn’t see it coming, just like I didn’t see the Tennessee Titans starting 0-3 a year after leading the NFL with 13 wins. The Titans are the biggest disappointment of the young season. They have found different ways to lose each week. In week one, they fought extremely hard but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too many chances to beat them. In week two, their secondary was torched by the Texans. In week three, four turnovers and some shaky decision-making from their veteran quarterback dug them a grave that was way too deep to climb out. I don’t think they are as bad as their record indicates. They could easily be 2-1. They have to start the uphill climb by shoring up their secondary performance. In 2008, the Titans finished 9th in the league against the forward pass. So far in 2009, the Titans are hanging around with the dregs of the NFL at 29th in the league against the pass. In addition, they need Kerry Collins to play smarter than he did in the Jets game. If they wanted a quarterback to throw passes to the other team they could start Vince Young. Nevertheless, I think the Titans will finally get on the winning track this week. It remains to be seen whether their once promising season has gone up in flames due to their extremely slow start.

(5) Another team that is on the verge of having their season blow up for all the wrong reasons is the Seattle Seahawks. They lost another winnable game because their defense couldn’t get off the field when it counted and their offense left far too many points on the field. Even worse, their veteran kicker missed two field goals, which ended up being the difference in the game. Also, I’m contractually obligated to mention that the Hawks were without Matt Hasselbeck and six other starters. No matter what excuse you choose to use it all added up to another half-full performance by Seattle. Let’s start with the defense. They actually played pretty well considering the handicap that they were under without several starters. The Bears only averaged 3.0 yards per carry on 28 rushing attempts. The Hawks held them to only 14 first downs all game and they got off the field on third down pretty consistently. The negative part is that the Hawks did not generate a lot of pressure against Jay Cutler. As a result, Cutler was able to complete 77% of his attempts and throw three touchdowns. Despite having some success against the Bears’ offense, the Hawks could not get a stop at the most crucial point of the game. The Bears took over with just over five minutes remaining, trailing by two points and marched down the field in only six plays for the winning score. This was the point in the game where someone needed to make a play to preserve the victory. Instead, the Hawks did their finest torero impersonation and allowed Cutler to move down the field as if he was royalty. Despite the uneven performance from the defense, I need to give a big shout out to the Heater, David Hawthorne, on his 16-tackle performance. The offense does not get nearly the love this time around. Last week, I was worried about how Seneca Wallace would perform and his actual numbers reinforced my belief that he is nothing more than a good back-up quarterback. Overall, the Hawks had seven scoring opportunities but only one of them was a touchdown. No one, including Seneca, was able to step up and make a play to get the Hawks another six points. It was just one of those games where the Hawks moved the ball between the 20’s, but couldn’t cash in when the space got tight in the red zone. You can blame it on play calling, the quarterback or someone else, but the bottom line is that the Hawks have to find a way to score more touchdowns. Six field goals are way too many, especially when your supposedly steady veteran kicker misses two of them. In the end, the Hawks are on the precipice of having their season go into the toilet. It is pretty much guaranteed that they will lose next week at Indianapolis regardless of who is playing quarterback. After a 1-3 start to the season, they would face must-win ballgames against the Jaguars and the Cardinals. Fortunately, both of those games would be at Qwest Field. I just hope we start getting some of our guys back healthy so that we can actually compete next week and beyond.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

The Commish's Picks - Week 3

Commish's picks are in bold.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
I can guarantee that the Steelers are pissed off that they gave away the game in Chicago last week.  They are going to take out their frustration on the Bengals.  More importantly, the Steelers own the Bengals no matter where the game is played.  The Steelers have won five in a row and 11 out of 14 going back to 2002.  Even though the Bengals seem to be an improving team, I don't think they are ready to knock off the defending champs.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
I don't think the Lions are very good.  I also don't think that the Redskins are very good.  They struggled immensely with a Rams team that isn't much better than the Lions.  They only scored nine points and went 0-5 in the red zone.  The Rams game was in Landover, MD.  I think the Redskins struggle again, but this time they don't have the home field advantage to fall back on.  As a result, the masses in Detroit rejoice after the hometown team breaks their 19 game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
The Rams have only scored seven points through two games.  Their offense consists of Steven Jackson, Steven Jackson, and more Steven Jackson.  They have no weapons on the outside.  Their young defense has played okay at times, but I think the Packers have the offense to exploit the youth factor.  The Rams will get a much needed boost from returning home, but the Packers will have more than enough to take of business.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers are certainly starting to play the part of the 2009 sleeper team.  They have leaned on their stout defense and solid running game to start the season 2-0.  They have the 7th ranked defense in the NFL and they are allowing only 53 yards per game on the ground.  I think they are going to be challenged in an entirely new way by the dynamic running game of the Minnesota Vikings.  In addition, the Williams brothers will shut down the 49ers running game like the Cardinals did in week one, which will put the onus on Shaun Hill to win the game.  I don't believe he is capable of winning a game with his arm.  A huge day from Adrian Peterson and a multiple turnover day from Hill will send the 49ers to their first defeat of the season.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
The Patriots are in the danger zone.  How will they respond to their lackluster start to the 2009 season?  With so many veteran leaders gone, will they be able to overcome solely on the basis of Belichick's genius and Brady's talent?  I see three big issues why the Patriots will not respond like the New England teams of the past.  First of all, they can't protect Brady.  Their inability to create a pocket for Brady has led to the second isse, which is Brady doesn't look comfortable dropping back.  He looks a little gun shy.  Finally, their defense has lost so much of its identity that they don't really know who they are or what they are capable of being.  For all these reason, I like the Falcons.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
I like the team that has its back against the wall versus a team that has had smoke blown up the rear ends for the entire week.  The Jets are feeling pretty good about themselves, while the Titans know that another loss could signal the end of their season.  Jeff Fisher will make the necessary adjustments in the secondary to correct the issues that the Titans have experienced through the first two week.  I think that Mark Sanchez will finally get exposed as a rookie quarterback and the Titans will get their first win.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs are not very good.  I think the Eagles win this game with their hands tied behind their backs and blind-folded.  The home crowd and the season debut of Michael Vick will carry the Eagles to the win.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are mediocre on defense and their offense has looked slightly better against two defenses in the bottom half of the NFL.  The Bucs are 27th in the NFL in passing defense giving up 282 yards per game and a QB rating of 118.7.  Eli Manning will take advantage of Tampa Bay again and Brandon Jacobs and the running game will finish the job. 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are chomping at the bit to hit someone after what they considered to be a poor performance, on the road, in San Diego.  I think that the Ravens will take out all their frustration on the hapless Browns, who have only scored two touchdowns in their last eight games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
The Jaguars looked terrible in week two.  Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson must be salivating at the prospect of facing a defense that just allowed Kurt Warner to establish an NFL record for single-game accuracy.  In addition, I don't believe that the Jags have the offensive firepower to take advantage of a suspect Texans defense.  This game looks like the best chance for a blowout this week.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
I have a very simple reason why I like the Bears this week: injuries.  It is likely that Matt Hasselbeck, Lofa Tatupu, Josh Wilson, and Sean Locklear will not play this week.  In addition, we are already without Leroy Hill and Marcus Trufant.  Basically, I don't like Seneca Wallace against the Bears defense and I don't like the Hawks secondary against Jay Cutler.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Too much Drew Brees.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
I really don't like either of these teams.  Denver got extremely lucky to win in week one and they took advantage of a terrible Cleveland Browns team.  The fortunate part is that they get their third mediocre opponent in three weeks.  Oakland won't win this game because they can't score.  JaMarcus Russell is only completing 35% of this attempts, which is the definition of drive-killing behavior.  Russell will make enough mistakes to allow the Broncos to steal another victory.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
I'm going with the Chargers because I think they are angry about the first two weeks of the season.  They struggled to beat the Raiders in week one and they played well enough on offense to beat the Ravens but couldn't get it done.  I think they have learned their lessons from the first two weeks of the season and they will apply them against the Fins.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
I like the Colts because of Peyton Manning, who has become the number one assassin in the NFL.  I can't think of any quarterback I would rather give the ball to in the two-minute drill, then Peyton.  The Cardinals, like the Dolphins before them, will give Manning one too many chances with the football and will pay the price.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
I think that both of these teams are a mess, but Carolina is the bigger mess.  Tony Romo will make enough mistakes underneath the bright lights of Monday night to keep things close, but I still like the Cowboys.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 22-10

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Stats of the Week - Week 2

Stat of the week No. 1: Drew Brees is on pace to throw 72 touchdown passes this season. The NFL record is 50.

Stat of the week No. 2: Cleveland has one offensive touchdown in its past eight games.

Stat of the week No. 3: Since the start of the 2008 season, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 62 times. In that same period, Jay Cutler has been sacked only 15 times.

Stat of the week No. 4: JaMarcus Russell’s completion percentage through the first two weeks of the season is 35.2%.

Stat of the week No. 5: Kurt Warner had the most accurate passing performance in NFL history (90 years) when he completed 24 of 26 (0.923) attempts against the Jaguars.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Crazy week in the NFL

It was another crazy week in the NFL. There were several outcomes that were very surprising to me and I want to touch on a few of them in my weekly thoughts.

(1) What do we make of the Titans after the first two weeks of the season? Last year, they led the AFC with a 13-3 record and were a couple breaks away from playing for the AFC Championship on their home turf. This year, they have already lost a tough game to the defending champs and a real stinker in their home opener. No one should be ashamed to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but how do you explain the terrible performance against the Houston Texans. The defense that looked so strong against the Steelers was carved up like a holiday turkey by Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. After Schaub’s struggles in week one, I did not see this performance coming. He looked like an MVP candidate in Nashville. He completed 64% of his attempts and threw for a career high four touchdown passes. Two of his TD passes went to the incredible Andre Johnson, who abused the duo of Courtland Finnegan and Nick Harper to the tune of 10 catches for 149 yards. If Schaub can stay healthy, a big if, he is going to put up huge numbers along with Johnson. I can see these two being in the top five of quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the league. The Titans had absolutely no answer for them, which was a shame because the Titans offense, namely Chris Johnson, put on a show worthy of the Grand Ole Opry. Johnson administered a complete smackdown against a Texans’ defense that is looking more and more suspect by the passing minute. Johnson had touchdown runs of 57 and 91 yards, with the 91-yard strike matching the longest running play in franchise history. In addition, he added a 69-yard touchdown reception becoming only the fourth player since 1970 with three touchdowns of at least 50 yards in the same game. Unfortunately, the Titans wasted his extraordinary performance and fell to 0-2 for the first time since 2006. Personally, I think they are a much better team than they have shown in the first two weeks. Their offense showed in week two how good they can be and their defense opened the season with a dominating effort in the Steel City. I chalk this game up to a bad week for the Titans and I fully expect them to right the ship. The problem is that they will be forced to straighten things out on the road against a Jets squad that looks to be playing with a newfound swagger. The bad news for Titans’ fans is that it is going to get a little worse before it gets better.

(2) I have to give a lot of props to the Jets, who have had two impressive victories to start the 2009 campaign. They thumped the Texans to start the season and then called out the AFC East bullies better known as the New England Patriots. Not only did they poke the hornet’s nest in Foxboro but they backed it up with a hard-fought, hard hitting victory against the Pats. This game had to be a beautiful sight to behold for Jets’ first year coach Rex Ryan. He imported the Baltimore recipe for success, which includes tough defense and conservative offense, and watched it worked to perfection on Sunday. The Jets’ defense held the Pats to under 300 yards of total offense, forced Tom Brady to misfire on over 50% of his attempts and held Brady without a TD pass for just the third time in 21 games. The Jets have still not allowed an offensive touchdown through the first two games of the season. The Jets never got to Brady but their frenetic style kept the Patriots off balance all game long, which led to New England’s first game without a touchdown since December 10, 2006 against the Miami Dolphins (1st time in 37 games). On offense, the Jets turned around a miserable first half to outscore the Patriots 13-0 in the second stanza to pull out the big victory. The big reason for the turnaround is that the Jets took off the training wheels for Mark Sanchez and unleashed the rookie in the second half. After only attempting five passes in the first half, Sanchez was outstanding in the second half leading the Jets on three consecutive scoring drives including a three play, 56-yard touchdown drive to start the 3rd quarter. It is very clear that Coach Ryan learned his lessons well under in Baltimore. He is leaning on a stout defense and a strong running game to take the pressure off of Sanchez. I think we can all expect the Jets to continue loosening the reins on Sanchez as long as he continues to show he is capable of handling increased responsibility. In meantime, the Jets defense and the running game will carry the majority of the weight. In conclusion, I would be concerned if I was a Patriots fan. They were fortunate to win on Monday night and they followed up that lackluster performance with another ugly outing. If Brady cannot find his groove, the Patriots are going to struggle all year long.

(3) I’m not sure how to evaluate Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears after they absolutely stole a victory against the Steelers. On the positive side, we can talk about how the Bears grinded out a victory despite getting zero production from their running game. We can talk about how Jay Cutler rebounded from his disastrous opening performance to lead the Bears to last second victory. We can talk about how their defense held their ground against the defending champs despite losing their leader for the entire year. I think that all of these things are valid reasons to feel much better about the kind of season that the Bears can have. I think that the real Jay Cutler lives somewhere between the guy that showed up in Green Bay and the guy that shined on the Midway. Nevertheless, I think that the Bears are living on borrowed time. After playing so horribly against the Packers, Cutler was not much better on Sunday. True, he led an impressive final drive, where he connected on all four of his attempts. The other side of the coin is that he struggled mightily throughout the game against the Steelers 3-4 defense. He led three very nice drives but he was also at the controls of six drives that ended in punting situations. In the end, I think the bigger concern for the Bears was their lack of a running game for the second consecutive week. A week after gaining only 55 yards, Matt Forte was bottled up by the Steel Curtain for only 29 yard on 13 carries. Forte wasn’t much of a factor in the passing game either. The Bears must find some balance in their offense because too many throws from Jay Cutler will lead to more implosions like we saw in Green Bay. The bottom line for the Bears is that they should be 0-2, if Jeff Reed would have connected on either of his 4th quarter field goal attempts.

(4) I kind of wish I was a New York Giants fan, so that I could enjoy their ruining of the opening day of the new Cowboys Stadium even more. I’m sure that Jerry Jones must feel like Eddie Murphy after Rick James put his dirty shoes all over his couch. I’m having a hard time thinking of anything more enjoyable than sticking it to the most egotistical owner in pro sports on the day that he unveiled his $1 billion plaything to the entire world. Personally, it feels even better to predict the mouse-like performance that Tony Romo was going to have against the Giants. Last week in this column, I talked about how soft Romo is and he backed me up to the fullest with another vintage Tony Romo stink bomb. Less than 50% completion percentage, check. A quarterback rating less than 50, check. Multiple turnovers, check. Same dopey smile on his face, check. On Sunday night, Romo submitted more evidence as to why he will never lead the Cowboys to anything of significance. Romo is great when the stakes are low, but he morphs into Greg Norman when the crowd is at a frenzied pitch and each play is do-or-die. Conversely, Eli Manning looked calm, collected and in control throughout the football game. He completed nearly 66% of his passes, threw for over 300 yards and connected for two touchdown passes, one each to Mario Manningham and Steve Smith. I have never been a huge Eli fan but he showed once again why he has a Super Bowl ring. All Romo has is a trophy from the time he rolled a perfect game at Charleston Lanes during his days at Eastern Illinois University. Eli may not be his brother’s equal, but I would rather hand him the keys to my franchise than give them to Tony Romo. Romo is the kind of guy that can get ladies’ numbers with his eyes closed but they get so bored of him talking and talking that he never closes the deal. Meanwhile, Eli plays the back, whispers the right compliment into the ear of the hottest chick in the room and next thing you know they are doing the horizontal hokey pokey back at the hotel. In the end, if you want to win a game in September, give me Romo but if you want to win the NFC Championship game in frigid temperature, give me Eli.

(5) The Seahawks were absolutely bullied by the San Francisco 49ers. They were stymied by the San Francisco defense and they allowed the 49ers to execute their offensive game plan to perfection. Everyone on the planet knew that the Seahawks had to stuff the run and put the game into the shaky hands of Shaun Hill. They couldn’t allow the 49ers to relive the game from 2006 when Frank Gore torched Seattle for a franchise record 212 yards rushing. Instead, the Hawks were gashed in the running game to the tune of 256 yards rushing. They allowed Gore to go untouched from 80 yards and 79 yards to become only the second player since 1940 to have multiple touchdown runs of over 75 yards in the same game (Barry Sanders in 1997). As a result, Shaun Hill did absolutely nothing and the 49ers still came away with a dominating victory. In my eyes, this Seattle defense looks like the same defense from the last several years. They are world-beaters at Qwest Field, but they turn into feeble creatures on the road. What is the reason for this home/road dichotomy? Does the 12th Man really provide such an edge that the Seahawks are unable to replicate the same intensity on the road? The defense isn’t the only unit that deserves the blame for this horrible effort. The offense started slow again and finished even slower once Matt Hasselbeck left the game with fractured ribs in the 2nd quarter. Before Matt’s injury, the Seattle offense had only produced 72 total yards and one measly field goal. They finished the 1st half with their only impressive drive of the day, but the enthusiasm was tempered by the image of Hasselbeck staggering off the field with the rib injury. In the second half, the Seneca Wallace-led offense went punt, punt, interception, punt, turnover on downs and end of game on six possessions. Their six second half possessions yielded only 113 total yards. I can’t figure out if the 49ers’ defense is just this good or if Seneca Wallace is just this bad. I know that we were missing Sean Locklear as well, but hasn’t Wallace been in the league long enough to produce more. I know that Seneca believes that he can start in the NFL, but I have yet to see the proof on the field. He looks like a back-up NFL quarterback every time he steps on the field. Ultimately, I have to give the 49ers a lot of credit. They took the fight to us. Their front seven was dominating as they held the Seahawks to less than three yards a carry. I was concerned about the Hawks’ running game after last week’s game and I’m even more concerned now. They knocked our starting quarterback out of the game and they were very physical with our wide receivers. Even though it was an ugly loss, the bigger concern for me is the mounting injuries. We are already without Big Walt, Marcus Trufant, Leroy Hill and Deion Branch. After Sunday’s blood bath in the Bay Area, we might have to move forward without Matt Hasselbeck, Ben Obamanu, Lofa Tatupu, Josh Wilson and Sean Locklear. The injury situation is getting pretty dire for the Hawks, especially with the wide receivers where Seattle finished Sunday’s game with only three healthy players. Let’s pray that Tim Ruskell will not call Billy McMullen, Koren Robinson or Keary Colbert.

Friday, September 18, 2009

The Commish's Picks - Week 2

Commish's picks are in BOLD.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Two words to explain my pick: Jake Delhomme.  His last two outings have been complete implosions and I don't expect it to get any better.  I expect the Falcons to refocus on the running game to balance out Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez and cruise to a fairly easy victory.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Detroit hasn't won a game since 2007 and I don't think they are going to break the streak against Adrian Peterson and the rest of his Vikings teammates.  I expect the Vikings to replicate their offensive game plan from week 1 and load up on the Lions running game to put the game in Matt Stafford's hands.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers
The Packers offense is ready to explode and I think that the visiting Bengals are ready to oblige.  In addition, I believe that the Packers defense is capable of being a top ten defense, so I expect them to prove that their dominance of the Bears defense was not a fluke.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
In week 1, the Texans looked awful against the New York Jets.  I think that the Titans have a better defense then the Jets, so I don't expect it to improve too much for Houston.  The Titans have a young and deep defensive line that is going to be chomping at the bit to get their chance to go against the Texans' offensive line.  I predict that Matt Schaub will be under pressure all game long, which will lead to turnovers and short fields for the Titans offense.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Both teams looked better than advertised on offense in week 1.  I'm mainly going with the Chiefs because they have the home field advantage and the Raiders have the look of a team that is much more comfortable in the Black Hole than on the road.

New England Patriots at New York Jets
The Patriots looked enormously vulnerable on Monday Night against a team that they have owned over the last several years.  They needed a gift fumble from the Bills just for the Patriots to pull out a victory.  Their defense was inconsistent and the Bills used Fred Jackson to exploit the New England linebackers.  In addition, the Bills pressured Tom Brady on a regular basis.  Now they have to face a more dynamic offense without their defensive leader, Jarrod Mayo and they have to face the aggressive, Rex Ryan-designed defense that is more than eager to get their chance at Brady.  Let's just say that I don't like the Pats this week.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
I have a hard time picking against Drew Brees and the high flying Saints.  I think that the Eagles defense is still finding its way without Jim Johnson and some of the veterans that have left the team and I think Brees is at the top of his game, which gives him the advantage.  I think that Kevin Kolb starting at quarterback plays right into the hands of a Saints defense that needs every break they can get.  Even if Donovan McNabb finds a way onto the field, I still like the Saints to move to 2-0.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
The Rams are a complete mess.  They have no playmakers outside of Steven Jackson on offense and their defense has too many holes to plug them all before they face the Redskins.  I think that the Redskins will be able to get healthy against a team that was absolutely destroyed in Seattle in week 1.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
There are two reasons why I don't like the Cardinals in this one.  First of all, they were even less then one-dimensional in their week one loss because they couldn't run the ball and their injuries at wide receiver limited the passing game.  Secondly, I never like West Coast teams playing early games on the east coast.  I think a heavy dose of Maurice Jones-Drew mixed with a dash of David Garrard and his no-name wide receivers will be enough to get a win for Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are mediocre on offense and improving on defense.  I think the Seahawks new look defense forces Shaun Hill to beat them, which he is not able to do and the Seahawks offense has enough balance to out-smart the 49ers defense.  Seattle just looks like the more complete team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo deserved to win on Monday night in Foxboro.  They will not allow the chance to get a victory slip through their fingers again.  I think that the Bills will force Byron Leftwich into at least two mistakes and Trent Edwards will study the Bucs-Cowboys game from week one to see the myriad of ways to exploit the Bucs rebuilding defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears
Even without Troy Polamalu, I think that the Steelers will copy the game plan of the Green Bay Packers.  I think they will stuff Matt Forte and put the game in Jay Cutler's mistake-prone hands.  On offense, I think the Steelers will run the ball early and often in an attempt to soften up the Bears defense.  After taking all of the body blows, I think the Steelers will finish off the Bears with deep balls late.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
I wish I didn't have to make a pick in this match-up because I don't like either team.  The Browns have only scored two offensive touchdowns in their last seven games and the Broncos needed a miracle play to pull out a victory in week one.  In the end, I hate the Broncos just a little less than the Browns.

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers
This is one of the marquee match-ups of the weekend.  The Ravens were exposed a little bit by the lowly Chiefs, so I would expect the more high-powered Chargers to have their moments against the vaunted Baltimore defense.  I also expect the Chargers defense to play much better than they did on Monday night, which should make life tougher for Joe Flacco.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
I believe that the Giants will ruin the regular season debut of the Jones Mahal.  They will pressure Tony Romo with their deep cadre of defensive linemen, which will cause Romo to fold like he customarily does when the going gets tough.  On the offense, Eli Manning will be able to take advantage of the suspect Cowboys defense that was absolutely shredded by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins looked horrible against the Falcons.  I don't think they can improve enough in the course of one week to defeat one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Last Week: 13-3

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Favre, the gift that keeps on giving

If you are a member of the Jets organization, a player on the Jets roster, or a fan of the team, you must be thinking that the franchise has been cursed by Brett Favre.  Favre is like a contractor, who builds your house using shoddy techniques, covers up the mess, collects a big check and then disappears as your dream home starts to crumble around you. 

His tenure in Gotham started out blissfully as he led the Jets to an 8-3 start.  Personally, he threw 20 touchdown passes against only 13 interceptions and look like a sure-thing Pro Bowl quarterback.  Unfortunately, for Jets fans, the wheels came off quickly starting with a week 13 loss to the Denver Broncos.  Instead of cruising into the playoffs, Favre's poor play down the stretch dragged the entire team into the toilet.  The Jets lost four of five games at the end of the season with Favre throwing nine interceptions and only two touchdowns.  Favre fleeced the Jets for $12 million and appeared to have made no friends in the locker room with his superstar attitude and loner approach.  After the season, at least two former teammates made it clear that Favre was not giving the Jets the best chance to win at the end of the season.

After the season, Favre did the whole retirement song and dance for the second consecutive off-season and ultimately signed with the Minnesota Vikings.  The Jets must have felt a great deal of relief that Favre had decided to ruin someone else's team.  Unfortunately, Favre found a way to haunt New York from thousands of miles away.  In a press conference with the Minnesota media, Favre intentionally dropped the bomb that the Jets knew about his arm injury and still didn't include him on the injury report, which is contrary to NFL policy.  As a result of Brett's disclosure, Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum was forced to admit that the Jets had indeed failed to include Favre on the injury report.  By ratting out his former team to the media, Favre knew exactly what he was doing.  It was completely unnecessary for Favre to accuse the Jets of purposely leaving him off the injury report.  In my opinion, it was an extremely vindictive move by Favre and it further reduces my already low opinion of the future Hall-of-Famer. 

As a result of Favre's admission, the NFL unleashed a full investigation.  After examining the affair more closely, the NFL levied $125,000 in fines: $75,000 for the Jets organization, $25,000 for Mike Tannenbaum and $25,000 for former Jets coach Eric Mangini.  Since the Jets got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, I completely agree with the NFL's decision to hand down a stiff fine.  The NFL cannot allow other teams to think that they can play with the injury report rules and get away with it.  Nevertheless, it should have never come to this.  Favre should have kept his big mouth shut and let bygones be bygones.  Now that he has inflicted so much damage, Favre should throw some money to Tannenbaum and Mangini to help offset the 25 large that they lost due to his loose lips.

The honeymoon period is in full force in Minnesota, but no one will be surprised when Favre sinks their promising season as well.  I can only hope that GM Rick Spielman and Head Coach Brad Childress have started a rainy day fund to cover the fines when Favre throws them under the bus next year.  We all know that if you play with fire you are bound to get burned.

Stats of the week

On a weekly basis, I will bring you a few interesting tidbits from around the NFL:

Stat of the week No. 1: On the first seven third and long situations (7 yards to go or longer) of his NFL career, Mark Sanchez was seven of seven, with five first down conversions.

Stat of the week No. 2: In his last 22 series, Jake Delhomme has thrown nine interceptions and lost two fumbles. In 2008, three quarterbacks played complete seasons and turned it over less than Delhomme has done in the last seven quarters: Jason Campbell – seven turnovers in 553 combined passes/rushes, Kerry Collins – eight turnovers in 440 combined passes/rushes and Chad Pennington – eight turnovers in 506 combined passes/rushes.

Stat of the week No. 3: Baltimore, which surrendered only 29 yards rushing against Kansas City, has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since 2006.

Stat of the week No. 4: Cleveland has two offensive touchdowns in its past seven games.

Stat of the week No. 5: Two years ago on MNF, Buffalo lost to Dallas 25-24 by giving up nine points in the final minute; yesterday on MNF, Buffalo lost to New England 25-24 by giving up 12 points in the final two minutes.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

A tale of four quarterbacks and other NFL thoughts

Welcome to my blog about the NFL!  I decided to write the blog because it give me an opportunity to share my opinions about my favorite sport.  I'm not an NFL insider, I didn't play in the NFL (although I played through high school), but I am a keen observer who feels that he has prescient, timely and rational opinions about the league that he would like to share. 

The blog will offer insights into the NFL at large, but also specifically about the Seattle Seahawks, who are my hometown team.  If you are also an NFL and Seahawks fan, this blog is the place for you.  Even if you like another team, my blog can offer you quite a bit as well.  If you have comments or questions, feel free to post them.  I will do my best to respond.  I look forward to engaging with all of you.

Finally, you can hear me on a weekly basis on KYIZ/KZIZ in Seattle at 1:30PM on Tuesdays.  You can listen live at http://ztwins.com/.

Without further ado, let's talk some football.  This week’s observations are going to be focused on quarterbacks, some that shined and some that threw up all over themselves.

(1) No discussion about week one quarterback performances is complete without talking about Drew Brees. Even when you take into account his opponent, it is clear that Brees is intent on finishing the job he wasn’t able to complete last season. He wants Dan Marino’s passing record badly and the Detroit Felines provided the perfect launching pad for his assault on the record books. Brees was nearly flawless as only eight of his attempts touched the Superdome turf on his way to completing passes to eight different receivers and throwing for a franchise-record six touchdown passes. In addition, he established a new franchise record for an opening day passing performance with 358 yards against a Detroit defense that put up no more resistance than a wet paper towel. If it wasn’t for three New Orleans turnovers, who knows how many points the Saints could have hung on the worst team in the NFL. Nevertheless, Brees has morphed into a brutally efficient triggerman that is going to exploit defenses all year long because of his tremendous accuracy, deep football knowledge and the abundance of weapons at his disposal. I don’t know if he is the best quarterback in the NFL but he is at the top of his game and defensive coordinators throughout the league are losing sleep over the proposition of playing the Saints. If the New Orleans defense can provide any kind of support, the Saints are going to be an extremely tough opponent all year long.

(2) Are the Cowboys really better off now that the T.O. Circus has left town and set-up shop in upstate New York? Time will tell if the answer to the question is yes, but for one weekend the Cowboys looked liked the offensive juggernaut that they were always supposed to be with T.O. in the fold. Leading the way was Tony Romo, who looked in the midseason form after throwing for a career high 353 yards and three touchdowns. The most impressive part of Romo’s day was that he only completed 16 passes to accumulate the career high in passing yards. None of his touchdown passes were shorter than 42 yards, including a career long 80-yard touchdown pass to Patrick Crayton and a 66-yard touchdown pass to Roy Williams. Before we start anointing Romo and the Cowboys, let’s remember that we have seen this act before from the Boys. Romo has a well-deserved reputation as a front-runner and one unbelievable performance against the dregs of the NFC South should not and will not change his reputation. It is clear that the Cowboys can score points by the boatload against the Little Sisters of the Poor, but can they perform to such lofty levels when the games require less high-flying and more execution and toughness. In my opinion, the Cowboys will fold like they always have because their quarterback is softer than a cashmere sweater and their coach acts like Coach Klein from the Waterboy when he faces off with Coach Red. Nevertheless, I don’t think that Romo and Coach Country Bumpkin are their worst problem. Did you see the performance of the Cowboys defense against the rebuilding Bucs? 26 first downs allowed. Holy cow! 73 total plays run by the Buccaneers. Yikes! 450 total yards allowed including 174 yards rushing and 276 yards passing. Hide the women and children! Zero forced turnovers. Against Byron Leftwich, unbelievable! With defense this sloppy, the Cowboys will be enjoying another playoff season from the comfort of their own couches, regardless how many points Romo and the offense scores.

(3) After watching the Philadelphia-Carolina match-up, I started to think to myself what I would trust Jake Delhomme to do for me. Would I trust him to watch my kids? Would I trust him to drive my car? Would I trust him to bag my groceries? One thing is for sure, I would not trust him to be the quarterback of my NFL franchise. After ending last season with the biggest pile of cow poop known to man, Delhomme opened the 2009 season with an implosion that was nearly as impressive. He threw four interceptions and lost a fumble before getting yanked from the game in favor of Josh McCown. His passer rating of 14.7 looked more like a 100-meter time. He now has 11 turnovers to account for the last two times that he has stepped on a football field for a game that counted. For his career, he now has four career games with at least four interceptions, which is tied for third most among active players. There is a reason that I liked to call him Deer in the Headlights. How much longer can the Panthers entrust the keys to the franchise to Delhomme? The unfortunate part is that they may have no choice because McCown went down with a knee injury and they might as well fold up the tents and go home for the winter if they decide to start third-stringer Matt Moore. Delhomme may play well over the next few weeks, but every Panthers’ fan knows deep down that his next stinker game is inevitable. I hope they have a good supply of antacid in the Carolinas because they are going to need it.

(4) While on the topic of quarterbacks choking in week one, let’s chat a little about Jay Cutler. If I’m a Bears fan, I have to be thinking to myself: this guy forced his way out of Denver by throwing a tantrum worthy of a two-year old, he treats his teammates like a pile of dog feces, his opinion of himself is bordering on delusional, yet he played like his name was Jim Miller. Give me a break, this guy was supposed to save the franchise and instead threw four back-breaking interceptions to effectively kill the Bears’ chances of stealing a victory in Lambeau. At least a couple of the picks were inexcusable! It looked like he was throwing the ball up for grabs because he couldn’t think of anything better to do with the football. For God’s sake, the last Bears quarterback to throw four interceptions in a game was Brian Griese in 2007. We can all agree that Bears’ fans were expecting Cutler to pay a little better than Junior Griese. Chicago fans have to be having flashbacks to the horrible quarterback play they have seen since Jim McMahon retired. Cutler better take this game as a huge learning experience. He needs to swallow his pride and deflate is Hindenberg-sized ego, so that he can get back to work and figure out how to play with less recklessness. If he continues to produce stink bombs like we saw in Green Bay on Sunday night, the Bears are going to be in gigantic trouble.

(5) Thank goodness that a football game lasts four quarters because the Seahawks looked terrible for most of the first half. The defense was holding its own but the offense looked out of synch, especially Matt Hasselbeck. He looked shaky for most of the first 30 minutes, which included two horrible interceptions. The second interception was a lazy pass that he threw over the middle intended for Nate Burleson. It would have been nice for Nate to help out his quarterback and make a stronger play for the ball, but the throw was still inexcusable for a veteran signal caller like Hasselbeck. Thankfully, the Rams are a horrible outfit because they allowed the Hawks to shake off the cobwebs early in order to lay the smackdown later in the game. I see three aspects of the game that stood out to me. First of all, I really liked the way that Hasselbeck overcame the early adversity to post a very strong performance. He ended up completing nearly 70% of his passes and he threw three touchdowns. Secondly, John Carlson continued to show why he is the real deal at tight end. He led the team with 95 yards receiving and two touchdown receptions including a 33-yard hook-up from Hasselbeck that broke the game open in the third quarter. Carlson has a great chance to make the Pro Bowl in only his second professional season. This kid is as good of a draft pick as Tim Ruskell has ever made. Finally, I think that the defense played extremely well. They never allowed the Rams to get their footing, which is very important against a huge underdog like St. Louis. They held the Rams to only two third down conversions in 12 attempts and harassed Marc Bulger into a 63.5 quarterback rating. Most importantly, they bottled up Steven Jackson for most of the game. His best run of the day, a 22-yard scamper, came in the fourth quarter when the outcome had been decided. Before the long run, Jackson had been held to 45 yards on 15 carries. In addition, the Hawks had hit him so hard earlier in the game that Jackson appeared to be dancing in the hole in the latter stages not wanting to get hit. The only negatives for this game was the extremely slow start and the deceiving rushing numbers. Against the better opponents, the Hawks are going to have to come out more effective because they are not going to have the luxury of getting to ease into the flow of the game. Also, I think they are going to have to get their running game going much earlier and much more consistently. If you take away Julius Jones’ 62-yard touchdown run, the Hawks only averaged just over 3 yards per carry. In addition, they were stopped on three short yardage plays in the second half. This running attack might be good enough to beat the St. Louises of the NFL but it is going to work against Minnesota or Dallas. Nevertheless, it was more than enough to beat the Rams for the ninth straight time.