Three Reasons Why the Bengals Will Win Tonight

In several key areas, the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are like mirror images of each other.  For example, the two teams are very similar on the defensive side of the ball, where the Fins are led by second-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, who coached under the Bengals’ defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer in 2009-2011.  Both defenses feature tremendous defensive lines and athletic, playmaking linebackers, but Cincinnati’s defense comes into this game banged up with at least four contributors, including Leon Hall and Rey Maualuga, expected to miss the game with injury.  In addition to the defensive similarities, both teams have an underachieving running game, which seems to have impacted Miami much more severely than the Bengals.  The Dolphins are coming off their two best running performances of the season, but they still rank just 22^nd in the league in rushing yards with 89.1 yards per game.  Conversely, Cincinnati has run the ball poorly in recent weeks, but it has barely held them back due to Andy Dalton’s current hot streak throwing the football.  One area where these two teams diverge dramatically is in their recent play, where the Dolphins are riding a four-game losing streak and the Bengals have won four games in a row.  Miami’s poor play on the field is starting to seep into the locker room, so a fifth straight loss is liable to light the fuse on the simmering off-the-field issues. These Thursday Night games are hard to predict because of the short week of preparation, but my gut tells me that they generally favor the teams that are playing better at the time of the game.  As a result, I like the Bengals to win this game and improve to 7-2 on the season.  Here are three more reasons why Cincinnati will win this game.

 

Their quarterback is playing great football.

Dalton might be playing better than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last three weeks. Over this span, he has completed 66% of his attempts and has thrown 11 touchdowns, including a single-game high of five touchdowns this past week against the Jets.  One reason for Dalton’s recent hot streak has been his improvement in throwing the ball down the field.  In the last four weeks, all Bengals’ wins, he is 15-23 on targets that are at least 15 yards downfield.  He was only 11-33 on similar deep targets in the first four games.  According to Pro Football Focus, Dalton is the third most accurate quarterback on passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield and the only quarterback to not have thrown an interception on his deep targets.  Another reason for his strong play recently has been the willingness to trust his other offensive options.  In the first four games, Dalton targeted A.J. Green on nearly 34% of his attempts.  However, during the current winning streak, he has reduced his targets to Green to 26%.  The result has been a more dynamic offense featuring the tight end position and some of the other wide receivers.  There is no better example of Dalton’s new approach than the 49-9 drubbing of the Jets this past week, where all five of his touchdown passes went to players not named A.J. Green.  In contrast, the Dolphins’ Ryan Tannehill is struggling immensely over his last four starts.  He has completed less than 55% of his attempts and has thrown the same number of interceptions as touchdowns.  While some will defend Tannehill by pointing out the intense amount of pressure he has faced this year or the lackluster running game, I would argue that he deserves more than his fair share of the blame. Through 23 starts, he continues to exhibit a poor pocket presence that has led to him holding the football too long and often taking clean shots, which have resulted in five lost fumbles.  In addition, I would argue that he has received more than enough support from the running game over the last four weeks.  The Dolphins have run for over 100 yards three different times during this span and they are averaging 4.8 yards per carry during the losing streak. 

 

Their defense will create more pressure than Miami’s.

Both of these teams feature high-quality defensive lines.  While it wouldn’t be a stretch to argue that Miami’s front four is superior, the Cincinnati defensive front is going to have a greater impact on this game because they are facing an offense that has been susceptible to pressure all year long.  The Dolphins offense is in the middle of the pack in terms of the percentage of dropbacks that Tannehill is under pressure, but they lead the league in sacks allowed and the percentage of times that the quarterback gets sacked when dealing with pressure.  While there are a variety of reasons for the inability to protect the quarterback, two specific ones that jump out to me are Tannehill’s lack of pocket awareness and an underperforming offensive line.  In an attempt to solidify their line, the Dolphins brought in Bryant McKinnie and benched Tyson Clabo, who had allowed eight sacks in six games at right tackle.  Unfortunately, they will have to reinsert Clabo to the starting line-up because their normal starter, Jonathan Martin, will miss the game due to some of emotional issues that he is dealing with.  I’m sure that Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are chomping at the bit to play against the newbie and the human turnstile (Clabo). 

 

The fragile mental state of the Dolphins.

Miami is a team teetering on the brink of disaster.  While it has plenty of issues to deal with on the field, where they have not won since September 22^nd, they are facing some other problems that threaten to completely blow up their season.  First of all, they are starting to experience some injury issues on an offense that cannot afford to lose anyone.  They have already lost Brandon Gibson for the rest of the year and it is likely that they will play Thursday Night without the services of Dion Sims, a back-up tight end.  The Gibson injury was particularly hurtful because he was just starting to develop a nice rapport with Ryan Tannehill.  Secondly, the Dolphins are facing a mounting number of off-the-field distractions led by Martin’s abrupt departure from the team due to an apparent prank gone wrong and the recent serving of Mike Pouncey with a grand jury subpoena related to the Aaron Hernandez trial.  Finally, there appears to be growing unrest between the players and the coaching staff.  It started right away with Mike Wallace publicly expressing his frustration with his involvement in the offense after the opening game of the season.  Apparently, he continues to vent privately.  There was also the incident when Randy Starks, upset over being demoted, flipped his sideline the middle finger salute after registering a sack.  Finally, there are several players, including Richie Incognito, who have openly questioned the approach of offensive coordinator Mike Sherman.  In fact, the dislike of Sherman’s play-calling can be found throughout the Miami organization.  Added to all of this unrest is the fact that the Dolphins are playing three days after blowing a 14-point halftime lead to New England in spectacular fashion.  If Miami gets off to a slow start tonight, expect their fans and the game to turn on them quickly.

Week Nine Picks

Here are my picks for Week 9 (home team in CAPS):

Bengals over DOLPHINS

Chiefs over BILLS

COWBOYS over Vikings

Titans over RAMS

JETS over Saints

Chargers over REDSKINS

PANTHERS over Falcons

RAIDERS over Eagles

Ravens over BROWNS

PATRIOTS over Steelers

Colts over TEXANS

PACKERS over Bears

SEAHAWKS over Buccaneers

Last Week: 11-2

Overall: 80-40

Week Eight - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

Three Facts

1. The red zone defense saved the Seahawks on Monday Night.

The Seahawks defense was far from stellar against the Rams, but one area where they excelled was in the red zone.  St. Louis got inside the Seattle 20-yard line on four different occasions on Monday Night and settled for three field goals and a turnover on downs.  We can critique the Seahawks for taking the bend but don’t break defensive philosophy to the extreme, but the bottom line is that the Rams were unable to punch the ball into the end zone.  If they had been able to score a touchdown on any one of their forays into the scoring zone, the outcome of this game could have been a lot different for Seattle.  It is no surprise that Seattle kept the Rams from scoring touchdowns because they have been stingy in the red zone all season long.

2. Seattle played their most undisciplined game of the season.

Naively, I thought the Seahawks were past the point in their development to deliver a performance that was as undisciplined as the way they played last night.  They made mistakes that were out of character for them as well as errors that a Super Bowl contender has no business making.  One particular galling example was the penalties they were flagged for at seemingly the most inopportune moments.  There were the two J.R. Sweezy penalties that wiped out first downs in the first quarter.  Obviously, the Seahawks couldn’t afford to give back first downs when they only converted six for the entire game.  There were several defensive penalties that gave the Rams first downs or more favorable down and distance situations, including two personal fouls for hitting defenseless receivers and a Brandon Browner holding call that gave St. Louis new life on a third-and-16.  Overall, the Hawks committed 10 penalties for the third time this season and it goes without saying that eventually their propensity for committing penalties is going to come back to bite them in the ass.  In addition, Seattle missed a season-high eight tackles and generally played the entire game with very little concern for maintaining gap integrity.  The missed tackles and inconsistent gap control were the two biggest reasons that the Rams churned out 200 yards rushing. 

3. The passing game was completely wrecked by the St. Louis defense.

The Rams defense challenged the Seattle offense to beat them with the passing game.  Outside of Golden Tate’s 80-yard TD reception, I would say that the Seattle offense failed miserably to meet the challenge.  Led by Chris Long and Robert Quinn, the Rams sacked Russell Wilson seven times, which is the most times he has been sacked in his career, and didn’t give Seattle’s receiver room to breathe.  Surprisingly, the Seahawks didn’t do anything to help out their besieged tackles.  Instead, they continued to allow Paul McQuiston and Michael Bowie to go one-on-one with two of the better pass rushers in the NFL and the two tackles lost repeatedly.  It is my opinion that the tremendous pressure limited the routes that Seattle could run because there wasn’t confidence that the offensive line could hold up until the intermediate and longer routes could be completed.  When the wide receivers were able to get open, they had some trouble holding on to the football with Tate and Jermaine Kearse dropping passes that would have sustained drives.  This is not the first time that the St. Louis defense has made the Seattle offense look bad.  Including Monday Night, Seattle is 9-32 on third down, has allowed 15 sacks, and has thrown for an average of just 183 yards in its last three match-ups with the Rams.  Between now and December 29^th when Seattle faces St. Louis again, the coaching staff has to figure out a way to move the football against their defense.

Three Questions

1. Are Paul McQuiston and Michael Bowie going to get Russell Wilson killed?

The word on the street is that Brenno Giacomini is expected back in the lineup for the November 10^th clash with Atlanta and that Russell Okung will play again the following week against the Minnesota Vikings.  With the calvary seemingly on the way, the big question is whether Wilson will still be standing when his offensive line is once again intact.  According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Seattle leads the league in the percentage of pass snaps that their quarterback is under pressure (hurries, QB hits, and sacks).  Wilson has taken a beating all year long, but it reached its apex with wave of pressure unleashed by the St. Louis defense that resulted in seven sacks.  While the entire offensive line deserves blame for the protection issues, the white-hot spotlight is on Bowie and McQuiston because they have been beat repeatedly over the last few weeks.  I’m willing to give Bowie somewhat of a pass because he is a rookie from a small college that shouldn’t really be playing anyhow.  No such pass for McQuiston.  According to PFF, he is the lowest rated offensive tackle in Pass Blocking Efficiency for tackles that have played at least 200 pass snaps.  In addition, he is on pace to allow over 18 sacks from the left tackle position.  Hopefully, Okung will return on schedule, so we won’t have to endure the McQuiston horror show at tackle.  However, I’m starting to wonder if McQuiston isn’t just a terrible tackle but also a terrible offensive lineman in general.  PFF grades every play of every game and they graded him overall as a below average offensive guard for the 2012 season.  Seattle probably doesn’t have much of a choice to keep him as part of their plans for 2013, but you have to wonder if his days as a Seahawk are numbered.

2. Where the heck were the adjustments against the Rams?

The Seahawks had zero answers for what the Rams were doing to them on defense.  In the first half, they amassed only 38 yards of total offense and scored their only touchdown as a result of great field position set up by a Richard Sherman interception.  As fans, we have been under the impression that halftime provides an opportunity for both teams to make adjustments that they can implement in the second half.  Admittedly, I’m not the biggest football expert in the world, but I couldn’t discern if the Hawks made any adjustments whatsoever because the results in the second half were pretty much identical to the first half.  The one major difference was the 80-yard touchdown from Wilson to Tate, but I’m not sure we can attribute the success of this one play to a particular halftime adjustment.  Outside of the big play to Tate, the Hawks generated 17 yards on 14 plays in the second half.  I’m guess I’m wondering what the heck the Seahawks did at halftime because they played just as poorly after the break. 

3.Was the long layoff partly to blame for the lethargic performance?

The Seahawks played their worst game of the season following a 12 day layoff from their previous game against Arizona.  Perhaps Seattle lost its edge a little bit due to the long break and played sluggishly as a result.  While teams coming back from their official bye weeks have only won 50% of their games, teams are 10-4 following an appearance on Thursday Night football, which includes Seattle’s victory over St. Louis.  The time off should have been beneficial to the Seahawks, but the opposite occurred as they seemed to get worn down as the game progressed especially on the final St. Louis drive.  While I think it is fair to attribute a small part of the blame to the layoff, the bigger reasons that Seattle struggled were due to a fabulous defensive game plan executed by the Rams and the complete lack of effective adjustments by Seattle.

Three Worries

1. Impact on passing game from Sidney Rice’s injury

I will be the first to admit that Rice has not made much of an impact on the Seattle offense this season.  At the time of his injury, he only had 15 receptions and was averaging just over four targets per game. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Russell Wilson had only completed 45.5% of his attempts to Rice this season, which was the third worst percentage for any QB-WR duo with at least 30 attempts.  Even when you factor in that Seattle is a run-first football team, Rice's productivity was woeful especially for how well compensated he is.  However, Rice's absence is going to mean that Seattle lacks the big wide receiver that Pete Carroll has coveted since his time at USC.  Percy Harvin is obviously going to impact the offense in a positive way when he returns, but he brings an entirely different skill set than Rice.  Currently, Jermaine Kearse is the next biggest receiver on the roster, but he has yet to prove that he is ready to assume a larger role in the offense.  My fear is that the available plays are going to shrink because Darrell Bevell and Carroll don't feel confident running certain plays with Rice out of the line-up.  Maybe the addition of Harvin will increase the playbook in certain areas so the impact of Rice's injury will be negligible.  If Percy is not ready to return this Sunday, it is going to be very interesting to see how the passing game works with Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Kearse as Seattle's top three receivers.

2. Run defense

Seattle played poorly against the run.  Part of the issue was their gap integrity and part of the issue was the poor tackling, but you also have to give St. Louis its due because they physically whipped the Seahawks on more than one occasion Thursday night.  Seattle has had its moments this year when they have been very sound in their run defense, most notably against Carolina and Houston.  However, when you play the Panthers and the Texans, there is a certain expectation that they are going to have some success running the football because of their personnel and scheme.  The same cannot be said for the St. Louis Rams, which is what made their tremendous production in the run game even more shocking.  The Rams came into the game averaging just over 70 yards rushing per game and only 3.2 yards per carry.  The only time they ran the ball successfully was against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.  Somehow, the horrific Rams running game gashed the number nine ranked run defense for 200 yards rushing and 5.4 yards per carry.  I'm sure that offensive coordinators will be taking an extra close look at this tape to see how they can expose the Seattle run defense in a similar way.  Let's hope Seattle finds some answers before they have to face the two toughest teams remaining on their schedule.

3. Offensive playcalling

The basic concern here is if the Seattle offense has the full playbook at its disposal.  Are the protection issues limiting the types of plays that Darrell Bevell is willing to run?  My gut feeling from watching the games is that Seattle is not playing with the full complement of plays.  Another concern related to the playcalling is it doesn't seem like Bevell has been able to out-scheme the defense as much as he did last year.  Are the offensive line problems having an impact here as well?  Or is Bevell kind of in a playcalling slump?  Either way, Seattle has to find ways to string together some first downs to sustain drives kind of like when baseball teams start playing small ball to manufacture a run or two.  It all starts with Bevell coming up with game plans and in-game adjustments that puts his offense in the best position to succeed.

Week Eight Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: The 49ers have won five straight games by ten or more points for the first time since 1995 and have scored thirty or more points in five straight games for the first time since 1997. 

Stat of the Week no. 2: Geno Smith is the first QB with three interceptions returned for a touchdown in a two game span since Peyton Manning had four in 2010. 

Stat of the Week no. 3: Jaguars are the fourth team in NFL history to lose first eight games of a season by 10 or more points (first since 1984 Oilers). 

Stat of the Week no. 4: Calvin Johnson tied Lance Alworth for the most 200-yard receiving games in NFL history. Johnson has four career games with at least 284 yards. 

Stat of the Week no. 5: The Eagles lost their 10th straight home game, which is a franchise record and the most by any team since St. Louis lost 14 straight between 2008 and 2010.

Quick Hits - Week Eight

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

 

Detroit 31 – Dallas 30

Let’s start by stating the obvious: Megatron is the best wide receiver in the NFL.  There was a lot of talk this week about who was the better receiver, Megatron or Dez Bryant, but I think that Calvin Johnson settled the debate quite nicely with his 14 receptions (on 16 targets) and 329 yards receiving.  Johnson fell just eight yards shy of breaking the NFL record for receiving yards in a single game held by Flipper Anderson.  Nevertheless, he showed the entire repertoire in this one: turning short passes into long gains, making tough grabs in traffic, catching the long ball even when the defense looked like they had him covered, and generally making the Dallas secondary look silly.  The final indignity for the Dallas defense came seconds after Johnson’s final catch when Matthew Stafford pulled the okey-doke and scored the game-winning touchdown instead of spiking the football as everyone, including his own teammates, thought he was going to do.  I think we should name the play the “Detroit Hustle.”

 

Nevertheless, it is inexplicable how the Cowboys blew this game.  Since the Cowboys entered the NFL in 1960, teams have a .942 winning percentage with a +4 turnover margin in a game.  The Cowboys themselves were 44-1 in games where they had a +4 turnover margin before blowing this game in spectacular fashion.  Frankly, it was just the same old face plant that we have become accustomed to from the Cowboys.  Since the start of the 2010 season, the Cowboys have lost 11 times by three points or less, which is a number only surpassed by the Miami Dolphins for kicked-in-the-teeth losses.  I would argue that this loss is the worst one yet because Detroit had no business winning when they had approximately one minute to go the length of the field with no timeouts.  The biggest play of the drive was the 40-yard connection between Stafford and Kris Durham that was, simultaneously, one of the prettiest throws I have ever seen and a microcosm for how poorly Dallas played on the defense the entire game.  In a situation that called for playing prevent defense and keeping the ball in front of you, the Cowboys somehow allowed Durham to find a sizable hole along the sideline between the corner and the safety.  One of the major side effects of losing this game is that Dallas has allowed their NFC East rivals to stay in the thick of the division race.

 

Kansas City 23 – Cleveland 17

The NFL schedule is a 16-game grind and wins, no matter how ugly, are the most precious commodity in a bottom-line business, but is anyone in Kansas City the least bit worried about how they have played the last two weeks against back-to-back third string quarterbacks.  Through the first six weeks, the Chiefs were allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete less than 53% of their attempts for only 5.9 yards per attempt.  The six quarterbacks that they faced, which included Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Eli Manning, had a QB rating of 59.7.  In the last two games, Case Keenum and Jason Campbell have completed just a shade over 60% of their attempts for an astonishing 9.2 yards per attempt and a collective 107.5 QB rating.  The Chiefs won both games and they held both opponents to 17 points or less, but this pass defense is not going to work when they face Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers three times over the next five weeks.  Kansas City fans are obviously delirious over the team’s 8-0 start, but I’m sure that defensive players and coaches are looking at ways to shore up their pass defense ahead of their big AFC West clashes in November. 

 

New England 27 – Miami 17

Fans of the Patriots can thank the referees and the NFL rulebook for providing a major assist in helping their team win their fifth game of the season.  In the second quarter, the zebras called a very questionable pass interference penalty on Miami that ultimately led to New England’s first points instead of a punt.  On the surface, the Steven Gostkowski field goal was fairly innocuous, but it was the first positive event that occurred for the Patriots in the first half and ended up being their first step in coming from behind to win the game.  The bigger assist came from the rulebook, which intervened in the fourth quarter to save New England’s bacon.  On a second-and-seven from the Miami 23-yard line, Tom Brady was sacked and fumbled.  In the ensuing scramble to recover the football, a Miami player (inadvertently) knocked the ball towards the other end of the field.  The ball was ultimately recovered by New England at the Miami 45-yard line.  Instead of facing a third-and-29, the Patriots were given a first down because Miami was whistled for an illegal bat penalty and the drive ended in a Stevan Ridley touchdown.  The rulebook does not say anything about intent being a factor in calling the illegal bat penalty, so it turned out to be a good call even though many people will believe it is another example of the NFL looking out for the Patriots.  However, those same people should remember that last week the rulebook cost New England a victory, so it can giveth and taketh away.  In the end, the Dolphins made far too many mistakes (missed field goal, blocked field goal, three turnovers) to deserve to win the game.

 

New Orleans 35 – Buffalo 17

This game provided another example of the brilliance of Drew Brees.  He completed over three-fourths of his attempts on his way to throwing five touchdown passes in a game for an NFL-record eighth time.  In classic Brees fashion, he spread the ball around to 10 different targets, including two touchdowns apiece to Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints continued their improved play over last season by forcing three Thad Lewis turnovers and holding the Bills to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Brees and the improved play on defense are the two biggest reasons why the Saints are serious Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, especially if they find a way to secure home field advantage in the playoffs.

 

NY Giants 15 – Philadelphia 7

The biggest story to emerge from this putrid display of professional football is the tremendous quarterback quandary that Chip Kelly has on his hands.  After eight games, the Eagles have three quarterbacks on their roster and none of them appear to be the long-term answer.  The one that gives them the best chance to win this year is Michael Vick, but he has been able to start and finish only three games due to a balky hamstring.  The back-up, Nick Foles, showed promise in his first few appearances of 2013 before the Dallas defense exposed him for a fraud and then knocked him out of the game with a concussion.  His availability and effectiveness have to be in question going forward.  The final option, Matt Barkley, has been an absolute disaster in his two relief appearances this season.  He has seemed overwhelmed and befuddled by what opposing defenses are doing and can’t seem to apply even basic quarterbacking principles.  It begs the question as to why the Eagles drafted Barkley to begin with when Kelly would have never recruited a statuesque, drop-back quarterback like him to run his offense at Oregon.  There is a saying in football that when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none, but when you have played three quarterbacks it probably means you have the makings of a train wreck season.  After the Eagles finish 5-11 this year, they will definitely be in the market for a franchise quarterback in the 2014 draft.

 

San Francisco 42 – Jacksonville 10

The Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints might have better records, but there isn’t a team playing better football in the NFC, possibly the NFL, than the 49ers.  They have crushed five teams in a row by at least two scores using a formula that is heavy on the ground game with a little bit of Kaepernick throwing the football.  After averaging 101.6 yards rushing per game in their 1-2 start, the 49ers have run for 183.8 yards per game over their current five-game winning streak. During the same period, Kaepernick has only averaged 21 attempts per game, which is 10 less than what he averaged in the first three weeks.  By refocusing the offense on the running talents of Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Kaepernick, the 49ers have obviously played to a team strength, but it has also greatly reduced the number of mistakes they were making early in the season. After only forcing three turnovers in the first three weeks, San Francisco has forced 13 turnovers in the last five games allowing them to generate a +8 turnover margin.  Although they are extremely hot right now, their bye week comes at a good time following the trip to jolly olde England and ahead of two tough match-ups with NFC South powers (Week 10 – Carolina, Week 11 – @ New Orleans).

 

Cincinnati 49 – NY Jets 9

I didn’t expect the Jets to beat the Bengals, but I didn’t see the 40-point beat down coming either. With Baltimore off this week and Cleveland and Pittsburgh both losing, the Bengals took advantage of the opportunity to create space in the division and now sit on the verge of running away from their rivals.  They are in this position because of the outstanding quarterback play they are getting from Andy Dalton.  For the first time in his career, he threw for over 300 yards for a third consecutive game and, in the process, showed that the Bengals have more than just one threat on the outside.  He threw four touchdown passes to Marvin Jones, who became the first receiver since Randy Moss and Terrell Owens in 2007 to catch a quartet of scoring tosses.  Jones has caught touchdown passes in three straight games and might have surpassed Mohammad Sanu as the number two option behind A.J. Green.  For his part, Green caught two 50-yard plus passes proving that the Bengals do have a deep component to their passing game.  Right now, Cincinnati has developed into a nice sleeper pick in the AFC.  If they keep getting high quality play from Dalton and the defense stays consistent, then the Bengals are definitely a legitimate challenger for Kansas City and Denver.

 

Oakland 21 – Pittsburgh 18

What an odd game this was.  The Raiders got 93 yards on their first play from scrimmage and then proceeded to get 186 yards on their next 58 plays (3.2 yards per play).  The contrast in the previous sentence goes a long way to demonstrating where Oakland is at in its development. They have a quarterback, who possesses limitless potential, but is way too inconsistent on a down-by-down basis.  He will flash his athletic prowess like he did on his 93-yard touchdown run and then spend the rest of the game unable to throw the ball.  Obviously, Oakland is intrigued by his ability, but they are going to have to live through the inevitable ups and downs that will accompany his learning process.  If nothing else, Terrelle Pryor provides a level of excitement to a franchise that hasn’t had much to get excited about since going to the Super Bowl in 2002. Personally, I feel like Pryor can be the long-term answer at quarterback, but the Oakland brass has to build an offensive line that can protect him better and supply some improved offensive weapons. 

 

Denver 45 – Washington 21

The good news for Denver is they dispatched their visitors from the nation’s capital with a scoring outburst that was very Oregon Duck-like for its speed and ruthlessness.  The Team with the Offensive Nickname had a surprising 14-point lead early in the third quarter only to watch the Broncos reel off 38 unanswered points in the final 26 minutes to win going away.  However, there are a few offensive trends that appear to be going in the wrong direction for the Broncos.  One area that has been trending downward is Peyton Manning’s turnover numbers.  After having just one turnover in the first four games, Manning has nine total turnovers (6 interceptions, 3 fumbles) in the past four weeks.  Another area of concern is sacks allowed.  Denver protected Manning extremely well through the first six weeks of the season allowing only five sacks.  However, he has been sacked six times the last two games and the pummeling that he endured at the hands of the Indianapolis defense played a big part in the Colts’ upset victory.  The final area that is going the wrong direction is Denver’s third down conversion percentage.  The Broncos were downright robotic on third down in their first six games converting nearly 58% of their opportunities.  Their conversion percentage is down to 32.1% against Indy and Washington.  Obviously, Denver is one of the best teams in the NFL, but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor that will definitely be exposed when they face better teams.

 

Arizona 27 – Atlanta 13

I’m not sure if the result of this game is indicative of anything.  The Falcons are beat up and not very good and, frankly, they played that way against the Cardinals.  Atlanta scored the first points of the game and then proceeded to go scoreless for approximately 44 minutes in the middle of the game before a garbage time touchdown late in the fourth quarter.  Their best healthy offensive player, Tony Gonzalez, was effectively taken out of the game by an Arizona defense that didn’t have any fear of the rest of the Falcons’ playmakers.  It didn’t even help to get Steven Jackson back from injury as he was limited to six yards on 11 carries.  After a 2-5 start plus an extremely tough schedule, featuring Carolina (twice), Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco, the remainder of the season, the Falcons are playing for 2014.  On the other side, the Cardinals are a mediocre team led by a mediocre talent at quarterback that is good enough to beat the dregs of the NFL, but not good enough to beat anyone else consistently.  At 4-4, they are pretty much what I expected them to be and if they finish better than .500 I would be shocked.

 

Green Bay 44 – Minnesota 31

The final score makes it seem like this game was competitive, but the Packers were actually winning 41-17 late in the fourth quarter before the Vikings added two cheap touchdowns.  Green Bay dominated in nearly every category, including an astonishing time of possession advantage that was greater than 2-to-1.  Aaron Rodgers found little resistance from the Minnesota defense, which has been the trend over last eight games that he has played against the Purple People.  He is 7-1 over that stretch with 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing roughly three-quarters of his attempts.  In addition to Rodgers’ hyper-efficient outing, the Packers matched a season-high with 182 yards on the ground and received a 93-yard punt return from Micah Hyde. On the other side, the Vikings’ cesspool at quarterback continued to stink with yet another uninspiring effort from Christian Ponder.  The offense, led by Ponder, was so ineffective that they managed only three plays in the entire third quarter.  The Vikings, like the Browns and Eagles, have played three quarterbacks but have no long-term answer on their roster.  However, Minnesota has the inside position on those other two teams to get a possible number one pick in next year’s draft, which might yield Marcus Mariota or Teddy Bridgewater.

Week Eight Picks

Here are my picks for Week 8 (home team in CAPS):

Panthers over BUCCANEERS
LIONS over Cowboys
CHIEFS over Browns
PATRIOTS over Dolphins
SAINTS over Bills
EAGLES over Giants
49ers over JAGUARS
BENGALS over Jets
RAIDERS over Steelers
BRONCOS over Redskins
Falcons over CARDINALS
Packers over VIKINGS
Seahawks over RAMS

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 69-38

Three Reasons Why Carolina Moves Above .500

The match-up on Thursday Night Football between Carolina and Tampa Bay is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions.  On one side, you have the Panthers who are trying to move above .500 for the first time since the 2008 season.  They are led by the league’s number two scoring defense and a quarterback who is having more success playing like Clark Kent instead of Superman.  The team is riding a two-game winning streak thanks to continued defensive excellence and cool efficiency from Cam Newton.  On the other side, you have the Buccaneers who appear to be on the verge of a complete and total meltdown.  They released the alleged locker room cancer Josh Freeman, but there continue to be rumors swirling about the general dislike that Bucs’ players have for head coach Greg Schiano.  I subscribe to the “where there is smoke there is fire” theory, so it is not a good thing that the relationship between the head coach and the players is the biggest story line of the season.  In addition to the interpersonal soap opera, the Bucs continue to deal with a staph infection issue that has infected at least three players.  After playing Tampa this past weekend, the Atlanta Falcons sent in a cleaning team dressed like characters straight out of the movie Contagion to ensure that the visitors’ locker room was free of any trace of the MRSA bacteria.  Adding insult to injury, Tampa Bay lost their number one running back, Doug Martin, to a season-ending injury, which is sure to put even more strain on an offense that couldn’t score when Martin was in the line-up.  With the Bucs facing a short week on top of all the on- and off-the-field issues, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to defeat Carolina, who clearly should be the more motivated team on Thursday night.  For the reasons above, as well as the three that follow, I’m picking Carolina to beat Tampa Bay and have a winning record for the first time since Jake Delhomme was still a relevant quarterback. 

 

Mike Glennon and company will be unable to sustain drives.

Tampa Bay is the second worst offense in the league after seven weeks.  They are in the bottom third of the league in converting third down opportunities into first downs.  While they have looked a lot more like a legitimate NFL offense the last two weeks, it is going to be difficult to continue the upward trend after losing one of the best offensive players on their roster.  With Martin out of the line-up, Carolina is going to be able to focus more attention on Mike Glennon, which should lead to a pressure-filled evening for the rookie punctuated by multiple turnovers and several cringe-inducing decisions.  As a result, I’m picking the over on the number of punts that Michael Koenen has compared to his per game average.  When Tampa does get an opportunity in the scoring zone, the Carolina defense will limit the damage to three points or less.  The one x-factor for the Tampa offense is the budding relationship between Glennon and Vincent Jackson.  This connection gives the Bucs their best chance to put the ball in the end zone because Jackson has the ability to catch the deep ball and turn a shorter route into a long touchdown.  Nevertheless, the Bucs inability to move the chains on a regular basis will undermine any benefit they get from a big play.

 

Efficient football from Cam Newton.

It is difficult for someone as talented as Newton to admit that doing less will actually benefit the team in the long run.  He is the same guy that carried his teams to junior college and NCAA national championships.  He is the same player that burst onto the NFL scene in 2011 with 35 total touchdowns and over 4,000 yards passing.  He had a similar statistical season in 2012, but the performance of his team declined.  After getting so much praise during his rookie season, the haters were out in full force after season number two to pile a heaping serving of blame pie on his back.  I’m sure all of his critics forced Newton to do some serious soul-searching in the offseason. Whether he has made a conscious decision to play more within himself, Newton is enjoying greater team success due to a less is more approach that has him on pace to post the highest QB rating, lowest number of total turnovers, highest completion percentage, and highest TD total of his career.  Whatever the reason might be, Newton is playing the most efficient football of his career.  He has completed at least 75% of his attempts in back-to-back games for the first time in his professional career and his 89.4 Total QBR over the last two weeks is best in the NFL.  If he is able to continue this brand of football against Tampa, then he will finally be able to say that he is the starting quarterback on a winning NFL football team.

 

Carolina’s front four will dominate the Tampa offensive line.

The Panthers defensive line is capable of pressuring without the aid of blitzing linebackers and stopping the run.  Specifically, the additions of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei have solidified the point of attack and have provided increased pressure from the middle of the line.  With Tampa likely to be without Carl Nicks tonight, the presence of Short and Lotulelei becomes even bigger. With the Panthers applying pressure with just four down linemen, Mike Glennon is not going to find a lot of open wide receivers, which will lead to him holding the football and taking sacks.  As a result of the defensive line dominating, the Carolina defense can pick its spots to bring blitzes with the purpose of causing game-changing turnovers.  The Bucs are not going to be able to hold up with no running game, a depleted offensive line, and a rookie quarterback.

Quick Hits - Week Seven

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Atlanta 31 - Tampa Bay 23
For all of you that have Greg Schiano in the Coach Likeliest to Get Fired office pool, it feels like he is starting to build a sizable lead.  The Bucs have the second worst offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game and points per game.  They are one of the least disciplined teams in the league based on the fact that they are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL.  They have committed to playing the rest of the season with a rookie quarterback and they just lost their starting running back to a season-ending injury.  Added to all of this misery is the real sense that no one likes Schiano as a coach or a person, which includes the players in his own locker room.  If he is somehow patrolling the Tampa Bay sideline next season, it would constitute the biggest football-related upset since Appalachian State beat the Michigan Wolverines in the Big House.

Cincinnati 27 - Detroit 24
Can anyone figure out Andy Dalton?  He played horribly in a week four loss to the Cleveland Browns followed by an uninspiring effort in a narrow victory over New England only to post back-to-back 300-yard passing games for just the second time in his career.  He also threw for three touchdowns in consecutive games, which is also the second time it has happened in his short career.  His game against the Lions is probably his best professional performance.  If this version of Andy Dalton shows up on a more regular basis, then the Bengals are a legitimate Super Bowl contender out of the AFC.  Unfortunately, Dalton has too frequently settled back into being a game manager and, at times, something even worse.  It will be interesting to monitor his development over the rest of the regular season.

Buffalo 23 - Miami 21
It feels like just yesterday that the Dolphins were 3-0 and one of the early season surprises in the NFL. Funny how all of the goodwill related to the fast start has completely eroded as a result of a three-game losing streak that has been fueled by turning the ball over and not protecting the quarterback.  Four weeks ago, Miami melted down under the white hot lights of Monday Night Football thanks to four turnovers and four sacks.  The Monday Night debacle was followed by the Ravens sacking them to death and squeezing out a three-point victory.  Following a bye week, the Dolphins lost their third consecutive game in a similar fashion to how they started the losing streak to begin with.  The Bills, led by Mario Williams, sacked Ryan Tannehill four times and caused three turnovers to escape South Florida with a two-point win.  The Dolphins were never as good as their 3-0 start seemed to indicate and they are probably not as bad as they have played recently.  In an interesting note about bye weeks, teams that have had a week off are just 3-5 in their next game.

NY Jets 30 - New England 27
The Jets and Patriots have played nearly nine quarters of football this season and they have each scored 40 points.  However, the Jets have made the Patriots, and Tom Brady specifically, look really bad.  Brady has completed just 48.2% of his attempts and has thrown for an average of 206.5 yards.  One of the biggest areas of struggle for the Patriots has been their inability to convert third down opportunities into first downs. They have converted only 16.7% of their third down tries, which has led to an offensive stagnation that has been unseen in the Tom Brady era.  In some ways, Brady is getting a pass from the media because of the state of his receiving corps, but the future Hall-of-Famer needs to play better.

Dallas 17 - Philadelphia 3
In an unexpected defensive tussle, the Cowboys emerged victorious because their offense was slightly less horrible than the Eagles offense.  The two teams entered the game scoring a combined 58.2 points per game and allowing an average of 55.2 points.  However, one of the ugliest offensive halves of football in recent memory ended with Dallas holding a slim 3-0 lead thanks to the two teams combining for 13 punts in the first half.  In the second half, a spirited Dallas defense kept applying pressure until finally knocking Nick Foles from the game with a head injury and the Cowboys offense put together two scoring drives to put the game out of reach.  The biggest thing that Dallas can take from this win is that they are now in control of the NFC East as result of their 3-0 record within the division.  They will also take some solace in the fact that this game may indicate they have what it takes to win games when their offense is not clicking.  On the other hand, the Eagles saw all of Foles' positive progress go right down the toilet and wasted their best defensive performance of the season.  They also reinforced the belief that they don't want to see Matt Barkley on the field again until the 2014 preseason.  The loss to Dallas marked the ninth consecutive defeat for Philadelphia at home, which pretty much makes them the anti-Seattle Seahawks.

Washington 45 - Chicago 41
We started to see glimpses last week in Dallas, but this was the first full game where the RGIII from 2012 played in 2013.  He posted his best Total QBR and QB rating of the season, but more importantly he ran the football like the player that took the league by storm last season.  In the last two weeks, he has rushed for 161 yards after totaling just 72 yards in his first four games.  The key to his running success was the reintroduction of the zone-read play into the Washington game plan.  RGIII had eight zone-read rushes for 70 yards against Chicago, which matched the number of zone-read carries that he had had in all of the other five games combined.  Obviously, 2013 RGIII starting to play like 2012 RGIII is a huge development for Washington, but they are going to be held back by their atrocious defense that showed no willingness to tackle or play disciplined team defense on Sunday.  In their two victories, Washington has been the beneficiary of playing two back-up quarterbacks.  They pretty much made Matt Flynn look like a back-up, but there has to be great concern about the way that Josh McCown came off the bench and lit them up after Jay Cutler got injured.

Carolina 30 - St. Louis 15
The Panthers haven't been a .500 team this late in the season since winning the final game of the 2009 season to finish 8-8.  In addition, with a victory on Thursday night against Tampa, they will be over .500 for the first time since 2008.  Obviously, this is a franchise that doesn't have a lot of experience with success over the last few years, but perhaps they are starting to put things together.  They have one tremendous building block in their defense that is ranked #2 overall and #2 in scoring defense.  Their defensive coordinator, Sean McDermott, has brought over the attacking, blitzing scheme that he learned under Jim Johnson in Philadelphia and the results have been magnificent in 2013.  On offense, they have all the makings of a good unit, but it all starts and ends with the performance of Cam Newton.  When he plays efficiently and within himself like he did against St. Louis, then the Panthers are a formidable foe, but when we tries to be Superman on every snap the locomotive goes off the rails.  Personally, I need to see more from the Panthers before I'm ready to declare them a playoff contender.  Keep in mind that it was just two weeks ago when they emerged from their bye week rested and presumable ready to play only to sleepwalk through a 22-6 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

San Diego 24 - Jacksonville 6
Count me as one person who is not going to get caught up in the "Chargers are surging" story line that is being trumpeted through the sports world after San Diego improved to 4-3.  The Chargers shouldn't get any credit for beating the lowly Jaguars.  Beating the Jags is something that everyone should do like taking care of your children and paying your bills.  Frankly, teams should have to play their back-up quarterbacks when they face Jacksonville just to make it even or, at least, spot them a 10 point lead.  If you break down San Diego's four wins, they have beaten one good team (Indy), one decent team (Dallas), one below average team (Philly), and the worst team in the NFL (Jacksonville).  Otherwise, they have kicked away two victories in come-from-ahead losses to Houston and Tennessee and they got handled by the mediocre Oakland Raiders.  This resume is not one that I'm going to get behind 100%.  However, the current state of the AFC has given the Chargers an opening to make a run to a wild card playoff spot.

San Francisco 31 - Tennessee 17
While Seattle and New Orleans are getting most of the media attention in the NFC, the 49ers are quietly stacking up dominating win after dominating win.  Since getting drilled in back-to-back weeks by Seattle and Indianapolis, the 49ers have reeled off four straight wins by an average margin of 20.3 points.  San Francisco has scored an average of 33 points during their current winning streak.  They have gotten back to running the football and leading with their defense, which has allowed Colin Kaepernick to play within himself and pick his moments to make a big play.  I feel like Kaepernick's big day throwing the football against the Packers inadvertently fooled the San Francisco coaching staff into thinking that the offense should be more heavily reliant on throwing the football from the pocket.  As a result, the team got hammered in back to back weeks and it took a public display of frustration by veteran Frank Gore to get the offense back to the basics.  With the 49ers rediscovering their winning formula, my feeling is that the NFC West is going to come down to the December 8th match-up between Seattle and San Francisco.

Green Bay 31 - Cleveland 13
One big thing to note from this game is that the Packers won this game easily despite playing without Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley (for part of the game).  Obviously, the victory speaks to the Packers' roster depth as well as the supreme talent they have at quarterback, but it also raises a great deal of questions about their opponent.  The Cleveland defense was supposed to be the strength of the team, but they allowed the short-handed Packers to score four touchdowns and move the football at will.  It might seem obvious to blame the defense, but I feel that the majority of the blame pie should be awarded to Brandon Weeden, who is steadily playing himself right out of Cleveland.  Weeden misfired on 25 of his 42 attempts and averaged a measly 3.5 yards per attempt.  He played so poorly that the Cleveland coaching staff is seriously considering benching him in favor of Jason Campbell.  It is truly unfortunate that Brian Hoyer suffered a season ending injury because I think the Browns had a chance to be a playoff contender with him at quarterback.

Kansas City 17 - Houston 16
I predicted that Kansas City would be a playoff team this year, but it is pretty inconceivable that they are the last undefeated team in the NFL.  Their offense is about as boring as watching CSPAN, but their defense has been a revelation.  Led by Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, they are the stingiest scoring defense in the NFL and they are sacking the quarterback more than anyone.  They are the first team to start a season 7-0 following a season when they had the worst record in the NFL.  Also, they are the first team since the 2006 Ravens to hold seven consecutive opponents to 17 points or less.  Most importantly, they now have the inside track to the AFC West title thanks to Denver's loss to the Colts.

NY Giants 23 - Minnesota 7
I'm just glad this game is over.

Week Seven Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week no. 1: The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to start 7-0 in the season after posting the worst record in the NFL.  Also, KC is the first team to allow 17 or fewer points in seven straight games within a single season since the 2006 Ravens.

Stat of the Week no. 2: Josh Freeman posted the lowest completion percentage in a game with 40 or more attempts (37.7%) since Eli Manning in 2007 (34% vs. Redskins).  In addition, Freeman fell to 11-24 (.314) as a starting quarterback in the last three seasons, which is the 2nd worst win percentage in the NFL.

Stat of the Week no. 3: Tom Brady has three games with a sub-50% completion rate this season, which is the most he has had in any season in his career.

Stat of the Week no. 4: Jamaal Charles has seven straight games with 100+ yards from scrimmage plus a touchdown.  Only O.J. Simpson has had a longer streak to start a season (nine straight games in 1975).

Stat of the Week no. 5: The Jaguars have been outscored by 146 points through seven games.  The only team to be outscored by more points through seven games since the 1970 merger was the 2009 St. Louis Rams.  In a related note, the Jags have not scored a touchdown of any kind at home this season.

Bonus Stat of the Week: Buffalo and Denver are the only teams to have scored at least 20 points in every game this season.  Buffalo is one of three teams to have not scored more than 24 points in any game this season.

Week Seven Picks

Here are my picks for Week 7 (home team in CAPS):

FALCONS over Buccaneers
LIONS over Bengals
DOLPHINS over Bills
Patriots over JETS
EAGLES over Cowboys
Bears over Redskins
PANTHERS over Rams
Chargers over JAGUARS
49ers over TITANS
PACKERS over Browns
CHIEFS over Texans
STEELERS over Ravens
Broncos over COLTS
GIANTS over Vikings
Seahawks over CARDINALS

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 60-32

Week Seven - 3 Facts, 3 Questions, 3 Worries about the Seahawks

3 Facts

1. Defensive performance was the best in recent memory.

Heading into the game against Arizona, the Seahawks were a mediocre 5-6 in their last 11 road games.  While there were a myriad of reasons for the road struggles, one of the major contributing factors was the defense’s inability to take its home dominance on the road with them.  Far too frequently, we would see two big things happen when Seattle was away from Century Link Field: (1) they would generate little to no pressure on the opposing quarterback and (2) they would be unable to consistently get off the field on third down.  Fortunately, the Seahawks were able to shake both bugaboos on Thursday night, which allowed them to deliver a performance that I would characterize as the best road defensive performance of the Peter Carroll era.  The highlight of the night was the seven sacks and 13 quarterback pressures administered by the ferocious and multi-talented front seven of Seattle.  Personally, I cannot remember another example of the Seattle defense buzzing around and hitting an opposing quarterback on the road as much as they did against Arizona.  As a comparison, they didn’t even have 13 QB hits during their eight sack performance versus the Packers last season.  As a result of their intense pressure, the Seahawks were able to hold the Cardinals to a mere five third down conversions in 15 attempts.  This final stat is even more impressive when you consider that Arizona converted three out of their first four third down situations.  Unless the Seahawks were handing them prime field position, the Cardinals were completely dominated the entire game.  They only had 118 yards of total offense until two meaningless fourth quarter drives nearly doubled their final total.  This type of defensive performance is what every Seahawk fan had in mind when the team added Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in the offseason.  However, Seattle cannot afford to sit on its laurels.  The team has to find a way to bring the same level of intensity on a week-to-week basis starting next Monday night in St. Louis.

2. The Seattle roster is full of tough cookies.

The Seahawks certainly have their flaws, but one characteristic that they have in spades is toughness.  It starts at the top with Russell Wilson and permeates the entire roster.  Wilson not only has the physical toughness to endure big hit after big hit, but he also has the mental fortitude to overcome two lost fumbles.  His brand of football is not always pretty, but it is the definition of finding a way to win.  On the offense, there are other tough guys like Brenno Giacomini, Max Unger, Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, and the list goes on.  Again, the results aren’t always taken from a textbook, but you can never knock their effort.  Not to be outdone by the prima donnas on offense, the toughness on defense starts with the Legion of Boom, who is a mix of bold and brash and quiet grinders.  For goodness sake, the Seattle placekicker is even a tough guy.  Last week, Steven Hauschka took a vicious hit while covering a kickoff and came back in the second half to make several big kicks to lead Seattle to victory.  Seattle’s toughness is what will carry them to victory when their offense struggles like it did in Carolina or when their defense is not executing like they didn’t in Houston. 

3. The Seattle offense looks a lot better when Zach Miller is active.

It is no accident that the Seahawks’ offense plays more efficiently when Miller is in the line-up. Although he lacks the productivity and athleticism of the top tier of tight ends, Miller still provides a security blanket for Russell Wilson.  On Thursday night, he made a tremendous touchdown reception in the first half and the play of the game, in my opinion, when he caught a dump off pass as Wilson was being dragged down by Daryl Washington.  The latter reception was so big because the Cardinals had closed the deficit to four points and an incompletion would have forced the Seahawks to punt the ball.  Instead, the Hawks continued the drive, which ultimately ended in a one-yard touchdown reception for Kellen Davis and a 24-13 lead for Seattle.  If Miller had not played, I just don’t think Luke Willson or Davis would have been able to make the same play. Let’s not forget about the impact that Miller has on the running game due to his above average blocking skills.  His value was stretched even further in this game because he was forced into emergency fullback duty after Derrick Coleman left the game with a hamstring injury.  Hopefully, Seattle can keep him healthy for the remainder of the season because he provides value in obvious and more obscure ways.

3 Questions

1. Do you have faith in Peter Carroll’s decision-making?

This question is probably a little unfair because Carroll hasn’t really made a ton of poor decisions, but I thought I would ask in light of the curious decision to go for a fourth-and-short instead of punting the ball back to Arizona with a 14-point lead.  Normally, I’m supportive of coaches eschewing convention and going for the aggressive play, but I thought the decision was negligent based on the game situation and the fact that the Seahawks were playing with two back-up tackles.  Up to that point, the Cardinals had mustered just 42 total yards.  The Seattle defense was playing outstanding, so the more prudent decision would have been to punt the ball and force Arizona to go the length of the field to score points.  Instead, Arizona started with the ball at their own 43-yard line and needed only 26 yards to set-up a Jay Feely field goal.  We all know what happened next.  Instead of possibly shutting out the Cardinals in the first half, Seattle found itself in a dogfight after Wilson’s fumble inside the five-yard line on the next possession and a one-play scoring drive by Arizona.  I’m still supportive of Carroll overall, but its decisions like this one that make you scratch your head.

2. What’s up with the end of half fiascos the last two weeks?

Two weeks in a row, Seattle has failed miserably at the end of the half.  In week six, Seattle got the ball at the Tennessee 38-yard line with 54 seconds left and holding just one timeout.  More importantly, the offense knew that their kicker had gone to the locker room, so they were either going to have to score a touchdown or risk having the punter kick a field goal.  The first mistake occurred when James Carpenter was whistled for a false start, which cost Seattle its third timeout to avoid the mandatory 10-second run-off.  After a Wilson-to-Baldwin completion and a personal foul penalty against the Titans, Seattle found itself at the 8-yard line with a first-and-goal.  Even though he had no timeouts to work with, Wilson made the poor decision to throw the underneath to Robert Turbin instead of throwing the ball into the end zone.  In the rush to line up the team and spike the ball prior to the clock showing zeroes, Wilson had cost Seattle another opportunity to try to score a touchdown.  Normally, Wilson is one of the headiest quarterbacks in the NFL, but this wasn’t one of his better decisions.  As a result, Seattle sent in a ragtag field goal attempt team, who muffed the attempt and allowed the Titans to return the ball for a 77-yard touchdown. 

On Thursday, Seattle once again found itself in the opponent’s red zone at the end of the first half.  After two consecutive incomplete passes from the 18-yard line, Seattle called its third and final timeout with 19 seconds remaining in the half.  Inconceivably, Michael Bowie was whistled for a false start penalty coming out of the timeout and then Max Unger was called for a holding penalty on the subsequent snap, which pushed the ball all the way back to the 33-yard line. Actually, the hold was blessing in disguise because Wilson had made the decision to scramble from the pocket and I’m not sure if Seattle would have been able to spike the ball before the call ran out without the hold being called.  The silver lining is that Hauschka made the 51-yard field goal.  I might be picking nits, but it is these kinds of mistakes that will come back to haunt the team in a critical game if they are not cleaned up.  Don’t forget that Seattle failed to score at the end of the first half of the Divisional Playoff game last season because of similar issues.

3. Should we worry about Russell Wilson’s ball security?

Overall, Wilson has improved as a quarterback in his second year as a starter.  One area of improvement has been that he has thrown fewer interceptions this year.  Through the first seven games, Wilson is averaging one interception every 47 pass attempts, while last year he threw an interception every 25 attempts during the same period.  However, he is doing a lot worse in the area of holding onto the football.  In 2012, he only had five fumbles lost the entire year.  He already has eight fumbles lost, including two critical fumbles on Thursday, through seven games of 2013.  Are the fumble issues a function of the poor pass protection?  Or is due to the fact that he is running more this year?  Either way, Wilson would be the first person to tell you that he needs to do a better job protecting the ball.  Against the Cardinals, two of the fumbles were the result of Wilson holding the ball way to long in the pocket.  He either needs to get rid of the ball quicker or he needs to make the decision to scramble.  The other fumble occurred when Michael Bowie was beat like a red-headed stepchild by John Abraham.  My hope is that this issue gets better when the offensive line gets healthy, but I have to admit that my concern level is rising.

3 Worries

1. The number of hits taken by Wilson.

According to the MMQB’s Pressure Rate metric, Seattle has faced pressure on a league-worst 43.8% of its pass snaps through six weeks.  After another pressure-filled evening in Arizona, this number is not going to get much better.  In addition, Wilson has been sacked 20 times and has been hit 40 times (officially) in the first seven games.  These figures don’t even take into account the times that Wilson has been hit while scrambling from the pocket or on designed runs.  Wilson is averaging over eight carries per game after averaging just under six carries per game in 2012. With starting quarterbacks being injured all over the NFL, including Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler this past weekend, it has to give the Seattle coaching staff pause to see the number of hits that Wilson has incurred this season.  There is no doubt that Wilson is a tough son of a gun, but at some point he is going to sustain an injury or the cumulative effect of all the hits is going to start impacting his performance.

2. Robert Turbin’s lack of involvement.

For all of the punishment that Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are sustaining, I’m puzzled that Turbin has seen his role in the offense diminished.  As a rookie last year, Turbo averaged 6.2 touches per game and produced 5.4 yards per touch.  It is only logical to expect that his role would expand in his second season.  However, Turbo is only touching the ball 3.8 times per game in 2013 even though his productivity hasn’t declined significantly (5 yards per touch).   The decline in Turbo’s touches can possibly be explained by changes to the focus of the Seattle offense.  In 2012, Seattle was a heavily run-first offense (ran the ball 57% of the time).  This year, the Hawks are officially running the ball on 55% of their plays.  However, the run ratio is being propped up by Russell Wilson’s 58 carries, which are largely called pass plays that result in Wilson scrambling for yardage.  As a result, the Seahawks are probably much closer to being a 50-50 team in their run-pass balance and that is probably a conservative estimate.  The result of fewer running plays being called is that Turbin is getting fewer opportunities to touch the football.  Even Lynch has seen his carries decrease slightly from last season (21 carries/game down to 19.7 carries/game). Nevertheless, I think it is imperative for the Seahawks to find more ways to use Turbin in order to keep Beast Mode fresh for the entire season and keep Wilson from being killed.

3. Don’t worry, be happy.

After Seattle’s most complete victory of the season, I couldn’t come up with a third thing to legitimately worry about.  Instead, allow the great Bobby McFerrin remind you that worrying is a waste of time anyway. 

Three Reasons Why Seattle Wins on the Road

Since their Super Bowl season in 2005, the Seahawks have won only once in seven trips to the desert.  They have lost to Matt Leinart twice, Kurt Warner twice, John Skelton once, and a combination of Skelton and Kevin Kolb once.  In other words, Seattle hasn’t been beaten by a ton of Hall of Fame quarterbacks during this recent stretch of futility in the Valley of the Sun.  This trend doesn’t bode well considering they will be facing another middling NFL quarterback on Thursday Night.  The biggest certainty about tonight’s game in Glendale is that it will be a close, hard-fought ball game since the last seven visits to Arizona have been decided by an average of 3.1 points.  In order to break out of this desert malaise, it is imperative that the Seahawks have a fast start to the game in order to take out the home crowd and immediately cast doubt in the minds of the Cardinals that they will be able to win the game.  This would be the exact opposite of what occurred last season when Seattle, in Russell Wilson’s first NFL start, allowed Arizona to keep the game close and ultimately allowed Kevin Kolb to come off the bench and lead a come-from-behind victory.  It’s no secret that Seattle has struggled on the road recently, but I’m picking them to win for the following reasons.  

The defense will force Carson Palmer into mistakes.

Despite the Heisman Trophy and USC pedigree, Palmer has largely been a mediocre quarterback during his 11-year NFL career.  He isn’t a particularly accurate thrower of the football.  He has only completed 62% of his career attempts and has surpassed 65% just once in his career (2006).  He has shown a propensity to turn the ball throughout his career, but even more so during the two-plus seasons he has spent in Oakland and Arizona.  Palmer has averaged about 1.5 turnovers per game in his 11 seasons, but that number has increased to nearly 1.7 in 31 starts spanning the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.  It is absolutely critical that Seattle keeps making him look mortal and doesn’t allow him to morph into the Carson Palmer from 2005-2007, who looked on the precipice of becoming the next great NFL quarterback.  Keeping Palmer in check will be a challenge for the Seahawks because they have allowed a Total QBR on the road that is nearly five times greater than the Total QBR they have allowed at home this season.  However, I believe this Seattle defense is up to the challenge because, outside of Larry Fitzgerald, this Arizona team does not have the offensive weapons to expose them like the Texans and Colts did at times.  Ultimately, the Seahawks defense will make the pocket an uncomfortable place for Palmer to be, which will lead to the takeaways that will fuel a Seattle victory.

Seattle will lead with the passing game.

The Pete Carroll formula for winning football games calls for playing physically, especially across the offensive and defensive lines, running the ball effectively, and attacking through the air off of play action.  However, Arizona has been especially strong this season playing the run (9^th in yards per game and 4^th in yard per attempt) and it appears that they will be at full strength with ESPN reporting that Calais Campbell will play despite the scary injury he sustained on Sunday.  In simpler terms, it should be tough sledding for Seattle on the ground.  They will have to run the ball to keep the Cardinals honest, but they will have to be effective through the air to win the game. The key for Seattle’s success will be to continue to use play action to set up Russell Wilson from the pocket.  Wilson has attempted 65 throws off play action this year, the second-highest total in the NFL, and his 93.5 Total QBR on such throws ranks behind only Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.  In addition, I think that the Seattle receivers are going to be highly motivated to have a big game due to all of the talk this week about their alleged struggles to get separation from defenders.  As a result, Seattle will be able to take advantage of the shakiest part of the Arizona defense, their pass defense. 

The special teams will play a clean game.

Seattle has had two notable kicking game gaffes the last two weeks: the blocked field goal in Indianapolis that completely changed the complexion of that game and the flukey botched field goal that led to a 77-yard fumble return for Tennessee last week.  While neither of these mistakes point to systemic issue with the Seattle special teams, it is still going to be necessary for the Seahawks to play a clean game in this area.  In my opinion, a clean game doesn’t just mean avoiding blocked kicks, but it also means that Seattle covers kicks effectively and takes advantage of opportunities to create good field position.  A major focus area should to limit the punt return yardage for Patrick Peterson.  His average per return is down about 10 yards since his rookie season, but Seattle shouldn’t forget that he has the same talent that led to four punt return touchdowns in 20111.  Fortunately, this assignment should not be too difficult for Seattle as their punt coverage team leads the NFL with a return average allowed of only 1.3 yards.  In what I expect to be a close game, Seattle’s strong kicking game and coverage units will making a huge contribution to Seattle winning this game.

Quick Hits - Week Six

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Cincinnati 27 – Buffalo 24

It’s truly remarkable that the Bills started a quarterback from Duke University on Sunday.  The same Duke University that hasn’t made an appearance in the AP Top 25 poll since 1994.  The same high-powered football program that has appeared in three bowl games since 1961.  The same football factory that hasn’t won a conference title since sharing an ACC title back in 1989.  Somehow, despite all of the quarterbacks from higher pedigree programs, Thad Lewis has managed to buck the odds and actually start two NFL games in his career.  I can’t think of a less likely Football Subdivision program to produce an NFL quarterback than Duke University.  Nevertheless, there was Lewis on Sunday playing a surprisingly competent game and nearly leading the Bills to an upset of the Bengals.  It has become a precarious situation to play quarterback for Buffalo, but here’s hoping that the Thad Lewis era continues for a few more weeks.

Detroit 31 – Cleveland 17

The Lions are the sleeper team in the NFC.  They have a potentially explosive offense when they have everyone healthy and they might just have enough defense to ensure that they won’t have to win 35-31 shootouts every week.  The biggest keys for Detroit going forward are to keep Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush healthy because their offense is not the same without them. 

Kansas City 24 – Oakland 7

For all you fans of the SAT, here is an analogy: the Chiefs are to defense as the Broncos are to offense.  Kansas City has used the NFL’s number one scoring defense and number five overall defense to counter an offense that is as bland as a piece of Wonder Bread with butter.  In fact, it is probably an insult to buttered Wonder Bread to compare it to the Chiefs offense.  Led by their quarterback Captain Checkdown, Kansas City managed to throttle the Raiders despite 216 total yards of offense, including a measly 105 yards passing.  They might not have played the toughest schedule thus far, but the Chiefs are definitely the biggest threat to the Broncos running away and hiding from the rest of the AFC.  There should be no reason for Kansas City to not be 9-0 when they play Denver in Week 11.

Carolina 35 – Minnesota 10

Both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out.  The Panthers were fresh off laying a gigantic egg in the desert last week, but managed to put together their most complete performance of the season in destroying the listless Vikings.  It is inconceivable to me how Minnesota can play so poorly following a bye week.  Isn’t the week off supposed to be an advantage to the team that gets the break?  I had the same question after Carolina sleep-walked through their game with Arizona last week.  Maybe the Vikings were angry about Rick Spielman’s decision to bring clubhouse cancer Josh Freeman onto the roster or maybe they were just too upset about the Adrian Peterson tragedy to get their minds around playing competitive football.  On the topic of Peterson, I found it odd that he chose to practice with the team and play on Sunday in light of the death of his son.  In no other walk of life would a person be expected to continue working after experiencing a similar personal loss.  The personal attacks on Peterson were over the top, but I do feel it is appropriate to raise the issue of why professional athletes are expected to continue playing through personal trauma, babies being born, etc.

Pittsburgh 19 – NY Jets 6

Just when it appeared that Geno Smith had taken a big step forward following his flawless performance in week five, the Steelers defense brought him crashing back to Earth.  The key to Pittsburgh’s success against Smith was eliminating his greatest skill: downfield throwing.  Smith came into the game averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt over his last three starts, but he was quickly converted into the master of the check down.  As a result, Smith could only muster 5.9 yards per attempt, which was his lowest number of the season.  In order to be successful this year, the Jets have to get off the Geno Smith roller coaster.  He is clearly their quarterback now and in the future, but he has to find some consistency from week to week. 

Philadelphia 31 – Tampa Bay 20

Am I the only person who is getting the feeling that Michael Vick won't be getting his job back when he is healthy?  In order for Chip Kelly to run the offense that he wants to run, his quarterback needs to protect the football and be accurate.  Vick does neither of those things very well.  He is barely a 56% passer for his career and he has turned the ball over 173 times in only 126 games played.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles has completed over 67% of his attempts and has yet to turn the ball over in his limited time replacing Vick.  Keep in mind that Foles ran an up tempo offense at Arizona that required him to deliver the football quickly and accurately.  Unless Foles gets injured or starts to play terribly, I would predict that Vick's time as the starter in Philly has come to an end.

Green Bay 19 – Baltimore 17

The Packers are certainly happy about getting the road win against the defending Super Bowl champs, but they are starting to run out of healthy wide receivers.  The biggest loss was due to the fractured fibula for Randall Cobb, which is expected to keep him out of the line-up for four to eight weeks.  Cobb is an integral part of the offense because he works the middle of the defense, which creates space for Jordy Nelson and James Jones to work the boundaries and the deep ball.  In addition to Cobb's injury, there is uncertainty about the health of Jones' knee after he suffered a PCL sprain on Sunday.  If both guys are unavailable in Week Seven, then the burden will fall on the dynamic Nelson and the inconsistent Jermichael Finley to carry the load in the passing game.  My guess is that the Packers will try to work the running game a bit more with their promising young tandem of running backs, Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin.

St. Louis 38 – Houston 13

The situation in Houston has gone from bad to worse after the Texans got shellacked for the second consecutive week by an NFC West foe.  The fan base has completely turned on starting quarterback Matt Schaub, which has led to fans burning his jersey, showing up at his home, and cheering after he got hurt against the Rams.  The Schaub backlash has created a toxic relationship between the team and its fans, which include Texans players lashing out at the fans for their actions after he got hurt.  In the near term, things are not going to get better because Houston has to travel to Kansas City to face the best defense in football with T.J. Yates or Case Keenum calling the signals. 

Denver 35 – Jacksonville 19

The Jags deserve a round of applause for putting up a good fight against the heavily-favored Broncos.  They were only down two points at halftime and it was a single-digit deficit until the fourth quarter.  They single-handedly doubled the number of turnovers that Manning had the entire season.  The other thing that was clear from this game is that the Jags offense is completely different with Justin Blackmon in the line-up.  There is a reason why Chad Henne threw nearly 50% of his attempts to Blackmon, who didn't disappoint with 14 receptions for 190 yards.  The Jags have to do everything in their power to keep him on the straight and narrow path because he is the most legitimate play-maker that they have.

New England 30 – New Orleans 27

The Houdini act pulled off by the Patriots was extremely impressive, but it wasn't the only impressive thing that I took from this game.  The Pats deserve a lot of props for holding all world tight end, Jimmy Graham, without a catch for the first time since the seventh game of his rookie season before he became a household name.  The job that Aqib Talib did on Graham will go down in the annals of New England football.  Another impressive feat accomplished by the Patriots on Sunday was forcing Drew Brees to misfire on 19 of his 36 attempts.  This is the same guy who is a 66% passer for his career and has twice completed 70% or more of his attempts over an entire season.  The only downer, and it's a big one, is that New England lost Jerod Mayo to a season-ending injury and might not have the services of Talib for this Sunday's game.

San Francisco 32 – Arizona 20

The 49ers have two legitimate receiving threats and, somehow, the Arizona defense allowed one of those threats to go absolutely bananas on Sunday as Vernon Davis racked up 180 yards receiving and two touchdowns.  Davis is a dynamic player but shame on the Cardinals coaching staff for not coming up with some kind of adjustment to limit the damage.

Dallas 31 – Washington 16

The Team with the Offensive Name had their best defensive effort of the season, but still lost by double digits because the self-inflicted wounds were too serious to overcome.  Their biggest sin was their inability to stop Dwayne Harris from destroying them in the kick return game.  Harris had an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown and followed that humongous play with a 90-yard kickoff return that set-up a short touchdown toss to Terrance Williams.  Since the Cowboys were largely unable to move the ball throughout the game, these two plays were the difference in the game.  In addition to the special teams mistakes, Washington couldn't overcome the inefficient passing day from RGIII or his two turnovers.  His biggest mistake was a fumble inside his own five-yard line that set-up a Joseph Randle touchdown plunge to cap the scoring.  Washington also committed 12 penalties for over 100 yards, which kept them behind the sticks all game long.  In what is fast becoming a lost season for Washington, they have to be really kicking themselves for letting this game get away.

San Diego 19 – Indianapolis 9
Did the Colts and Chargers somehow switch identities before the game?  Fresh off of knocking the Seattle Seahawks from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Colts looked completely lost against the Chargers.  They couldn't sustain drives on offense and their defense couldn't get San Diego off the field consistently.  Conversely, the Chargers controlled the action with their strongest rushing effort of the season and an effective play-action passing attack.  Normally, I think that time of possession is one of the most overrated statistics in football, but it gains a little in value when the numbers are skewed heavily to a particular team.  San Diego held the ball for nearly two-thirds of this game and it left me feeling that the Colts barely had the football, which is actually kind of true.  I just never saw it coming that Indianapolis would struggle this badly with a San Diego defense that hadn't stopped anyone since the first half against Houston in the opening week of the season.  The Colts were either hungover from their physical battle with Seattle last week or maybe they are not as good as many thought they were.