Week Eight Picks

Here are my picks for week eight (home teams in CAPS):


CINCINNATI over Miami

DALLAS over Jacksonville

DETROIT over Washington

KANSAS CITY over Buffalo

ST. LOUIS over Carolina

N.Y. JETS over Green Bay

Denver over SAN FRANCISCO

Tennessee over SAN DIEGO

NEW ENGLAND over Minnesota

Tampa Bay over ARIZONA

Pittsburgh over NEW ORLEANS

INDIANAPOLIS over Houston

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 55-33 (missed week two)

Week Seven Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: San Diego lost for the fourth time this season when outgaining their opponent by 150 or more total yards, which is the most through seven games by any team since 1950.


Stat of the week No. 2: For only the fifth time in NFL history, two players had 200+ yards receiving and at least two touchdown catches on the same day (Roddy White and Kenny Britt).

Stat of the week No. 3: 30% of NFL games this season have been decided by three points or less. The highest percentage for this type of game was 27.9% in 1997.

Stat of the week No. 4: David Bowens became the third linebacker since 1950 with two interception return touchdowns, joining Derrick Johnson in 2009 and Ken Norton in 1995.

Stat of the week No. 5: With 110 yards rushing against Tampa Bay, Steven Jackson passed Eric Dickerson to become the most prolific running back in Rams franchise history (7,324 career rushing yards).

McDaniels era in Denver on shaky ground and other NFL thoughts

(1) The folks in Denver have to be wondering if Josh McDaniels’ days are numbered in the Mile High City after the 59-14 beat down the Broncos suffered at the hands of division rival Oakland. In his second season at the helm, the Broncos are 2-5 and they are 4-13 since starting McDaniels’ first season undefeated in their first six games. New coaches have to be given a little time to implement their systems, but owner Pat Bowlen has to be thinking that McDaniels is not living up to the reputation he developed in New England, especially after the debacle that occurred on Sunday. In historical terms, McDaniels might want to have a bag packed just in case because the two previous head coaches in Denver were fired after disastrous games against the Raiders. Wade Phillips was fired in 1994 after a 48-16 whipping and Mike Shanahan was fired in 2008 following a 38-10 defeat to Oakland. At the very least, McDaniels needs a stern talking to by Bowlen because the Broncos looked completely unprepared for the game and didn’t put up much of a fight once the Raiders’ snowball started rolling. Oakland scored touchdowns eight seconds apart in the first quarter to kick off the rout, which staggered the Broncos. The Raiders continued their early flurry with 38 points in the game’s first 22 minutes to eliminate any doubt about the outcome of the game, which ended with Oakland scoring a franchise-record 59 points. The offensive explosion allowed Oakland to win for the third consecutive time at Invesco Field and left Denver searching for answers. The Broncos had talked all week about a quick start being the key, but it was the Raiders who jumped out quickly and never let up. The Broncos not only didn’t start fast, but they compounded their early missteps with turnovers and execution issues throughout the rest of the game. Kyle Orton was ineffective for the second consecutive week and Denver fumbled the football five times losing two of them. Overall, they turned the ball over three times and never were able to find any rhythm against the Oakland defense. Even after scoring touchdowns on consecutive possessions in the second half, the Broncos went silently down the stretch with their last five possessions ending in four punts and one turnover on downs.


On the other hand, the Raiders were outstanding. They racked up over 500 yards of total offense with 328 yards coming on the ground. They were led by Darren McFadden, who ran for 165 yards on the ground and joined three other players as the only Raiders to score four touchdowns in a single game (Harvey Williams – 1997, Marcus Allen – 1984 and Art Powell – 1967). It was the third best rushing output in franchise history and it effectively took away the fight from the Broncos one rushing play at a time. In addition to the ground game, Oakland also got a solid performance from Jason Campbell, who was not 100% healthy, but played admirably against a Denver defense that had no answers. He hit Zach Miller with a 43-yard touchdown to set the tone and also connected with McFadden to keep the rout going. The Raiders completely embarrassed the Broncos on their home field and Denver fans have to start asking the hard questions about where their beloved team is heading. First of all, do they have the right guy coaching the team? At the time he was hired, I was not impressed at all with McDaniels and he hasn’t done anything since that time to change my opinion. He ran off a franchise quarterback and wide receiver and the offense that he replaced them with has not been consistent enough to validate the wisdom of that decision. His draft record is checkered, which has meant that he has not found the playmakers on either side of the ball that is needed to be successful in the NFL. He has not established an identity on either side of the football, which means that the team has no foundation to hang their hat on from week to week. He is looking more and more like another Bill Belichick disciple that couldn’t hack it once they were removed from the warm cocoon of Foxboro. I’m not advocating for him to get fired right now, but if he doesn’t show improvement over the last nine weeks of the season then his seat should get too hot for him to survive another year.

(2) The San Diego Chargers are inventing new ways to blow football games. They once again dominated the statistics battle only to lose another game due to their cavalcade of mistakes. This week they outgained New England 363 to 179, but turned the ball over four times allowing the Patriots to steal a victory that they had no business earning. The Chargers have now lost 16 fumbles this season. Two of Sunday’s fumbles were complete head-scratchers. The first one occurred when rookie Richard Goodman made a nice 25-yard catch and then simply left the ball on the ground thinking that he was down by contact when no one had actually touched him. A little later, Jacob Hester let a backfield pass from Philip Rivers bounce thinking the play was dead. New England recovered the football and advanced it deep into Chargers’ territory. In addition to the offensive mistakes, the Chargers continued to stumble all over themselves on special teams. This week, they failed to convert an onside kick and they allowed a long punt return, which set-up the offensively-challenged Patriots with another short field. Despite all of the mistakes, San Diego battled back with 17 fourth quarter points to give them a chance to win the game at the end. After stopping New England on a fourth and one from the 49-yard line, the Chargers gained enough yards to set-up a 45-yard field goal to send the game to overtime. Unfortunately, San Diego made yet another mistake, a 5-yard false start penalty, which pushed the field goal attempt to 50 yards for newly signed kicker Kris Brown. Brown did his best Nate Kaeding impression by subsequently clanging the field goal attempt off the right upright and sending the Patriots home with a huge victory.

As a result, the Chargers find themselves in a predicament that few would have forecasted before the season started. They are tied for last place in the AFC West despite the fact that they entered Sunday’s game with the number one offense and defense in the NFL. With two tough games coming up before their bye week, the Chargers should not fool themselves into thinking that their season is on the verge of turning around just because the last few years have gone that way. Even if the Chargers win two-thirds of their remaining games, they would finish the season 8-8, which doesn’t seem sufficient to win the division. With Kansas City sitting at 4-2, which includes a win over San Diego, it looks like the Chargers’ string of four straight AFC West titles is in serious jeopardy.

(3) The Cleveland Browns might not have sniffed the playoffs for quite awhile, but they sure know how to beat a championship team after defeating the defending Super Bowl champion for the third consecutive year. The victory over the New Orleans Saints was probably more the result of the struggles of the Saints rather than the improvement of the Browns, but, in the NFL, a win is a win. In the end, the Browns should be commended for pulling out all of the stops to win a big road game in a hostile environment. An environment so hostile that it actually turned on the home team after Cleveland built a 20-3 halftime lead behind a solid defensive effort and some trick special teams plays. The first big play came when Josh Cribbs threw the ball across the field on his punt return to Eric Wright, who bolted up the sideline for 62 yards setting up a 23-yard field goal by Phil Dawson. Later in the half, punter Reggie Hodges shocked the Saints by running through a gigantic hole on a fake punt for 68 yards, which was soon followed by another short field goal from Dawson. Hodges jaunt through the Saints punt return team was the longest rush by a punter since 1970. The Browns closed their virtuoso half with a 30-yard interception return by David Bowens, which brought out the boo birds as the Saints trotted to the locker room. In reality, the fan frustration was justified due to the fact that the Browns had done nothing on offense the entire first half. They couldn’t take advantage of the short fields provided by their special teams and their only offensive touchdown came after a pass interception penalty on Malcolm Jenkins put the ball deep in New Orleans territory. The Browns were outgained by nearly 200 yards, but they played the game smartly and allowed the Saints to make all of the mistakes. Overall, Cleveland intercepted four passes thrown by Drew Brees including a second pick-six by Bowens that closed out the scoring for Cleveland. Brees has now thrown nearly the same amount of interceptions as last season following only the second four interception game of his career.

Meanwhile, the Browns did not have any turnovers and gladly accepted all of the gifts given by the Saints. In the end, it was a game that should give the Browns some confidence heading into the bye week followed by a home game against the New England Patriots. First of all, Colt McCoy, despite his pedestrian stat line against New Orleans, should feel more capable of leading the Browns to victory. He didn’t do anything special, but he also didn’t commit any game-changing mistakes, which cannot be said for Drew Brees. McCoy’s next step, as he develops into a capable quarterback, is to make a play or two that helps Cleveland win a game. Secondly, the Cleveland defense has to feel that they can stop anybody after limiting the explosive Saints to three points for most of the game. They frustrated Brees with the interceptions and three sacks, which should be a good starting point for the game plan they will develop for the next Hall of Fame worthy quarterback they face, Tom Brady. The bottom line is that the Browns have had these moments before, including last season’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, where the Browns defense stymied Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense at every turn. In order for this team to start heading in the right direction, they have to put together back-to-back solid performances. Fortunately, the Browns have two weeks to assimilate the positive things they did against the Saints and get Colt McCoy more comfortable as the starter before they have to play the Patriots.

Week Seven Picks

Here are my picks for week seven (home teams in CAPS):


ATLANTA over Cincinnati

Washington over CHICAGO

TAMPA BAY over St. Louis

San Francisco over CAROLINA

BALTIMORE over Buffalo

Philadelphia over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville

Pittsburgh over MIAMI

NEW ORLEANS over Cleveland

SEATTLE over Arizona

New England over SAN DIEGO

DENVER over Oakland

GREEN BAY over Minnesota

N.Y. Giants over DALLAS

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 45-29 (missed week two)

Week Six Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Devin Hester now has 13 combined PR-KR TDs (9 punt returns, 4 kick returns), which tied Brian Mitchell for the most in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady has won 23 consecutive regular season starts at home, passing John Elway for the 2^nd longest streak ever (Brett Favre won 25 straight starts between 1995 and 1998).

Stat of the week No. 3: LaDanian Tomlinson had his 38^th career game with at least two touchdowns, which is the most in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Eli Manning joined Phil Simms as the only Giants players to reach 20,000 yards passing.

Stat of the week No. 5: Ronde Barber made his 172^nd consecutive start, passing Dick LeBeau for the longest streak in NFL history by a cornerback.

Bonus Stat of the Week: The Patriots won their eighth straight game following a bye week and the Eagles won their 22^nd game when leading at halftime.

The Steelers don't miss a beat and other NFL thoughts

(1)              The Steelers weren’t supposed to survive the Ben Roethlisberger suspension.  Most experts thought they would be lucky to escape the four games without Big Ben with a 2-2 record.  Instead, Pittsburgh came about two minutes away from going undefeated in Roethlisberger’s absence with a last second loss to the Baltimore Ravens the only blemish on their record.  Their surprising success was built on the return of their devastating defense and the steadiness of their running game.  They were being considered one of the two or three best teams in the NFL and they still were without their best offensive player.  With a bye week to prepare, Big Ben returned to the active roster and the Steelers faced another set of questions about how successful they would be.  Many wondered if Roethlisberger would return rustier than an old nail after his league imposed exile.  There was also a lot of uncertainty regarding how Steelers fans, as well as his own teammates, would react to the quarterback that had let them down one too many times.  I think that everyone involved with or supporting the Steelers needed positive answers to these questions in order to feel good about where the season was headed.

After the 28-10 drubbing of the Cleveland Browns, I think that Steelers Nation can feel very good about where they are heading.  First of all, Big Ben showed very little rust.  He completed nearly 60% of his attempts on his way to compiling 257 yards passing and three touchdowns.  His early interception set the table for Cleveland to score three points, but otherwise Big Ben was flawless in posting a 112.7 QB rating.  Keep in mind that the Steelers entered the game ranked last in offense and last in passing offense with Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon at the controls, so even a mediocre game from Roethlisberger would have been an improvement.  It should be pointed out the Big Ben’s return also marked the return of the Steelers’ lost vertical passing game.  Roethlisberger completed five plays of 20 yards or more, including a 50-yarder to Mike Wallace and a 36-yarder to Heath Miller that set up Pittsburgh second touchdown.  Secondly, I’m sure that Big Ben felt a sense of relief after getting a huge welcome from the 60,000 Terrible Towel-waving fans at Heinz Field.  After getting skewered on the local and national level, Big Ben had to have felt a little trepidation entering his first start of the 2010 season.  In the end, the only reminder that Roethlisberger had run afoul of the laws of common sense and off-the-field behavior were the handful of protesters outside of Heinz Field.  Once Big Ben felt the love from the Heinz Field faithful, he proceeded to take his frustrations out on the poor Browns like they had taken indecent liberties with Roethlisberger’s sister.  I guess playing Cleveland for his first game back was a perfect landing spot for Big Ben considering his 11-1 lifetime record against the Browns.  Finally, I think that Roethlisberger got a nice welcome from his teammates as well.  They watched him from afar as he handled his personal issues with maturity, determination and professionalism and they probably couldn’t wait to get back the piece of the puzzle that might take them all the way to Dallas in February.  Nothing against Dixon, Batch and Leftwich, but Roethlisberger brings a toughness that cannot be matched at the quarterback position.  On his touchdown passes to Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, Big Ben hung in the pocket, in the face of intense pressure, and delivered strikes on both occasions.  His penchant for putting his body on the line and his never-say-die attitude has to endear him to his teammates even if he has had his troubles in the past.  Overall, Big Ben’s return was a roaring success and Pittsburgh now looks like a bona fide Super Bowl contender.

(2)              Put me at the top of the list of people that are shocked that the Rams are 3-3 after six weeks.  After handing the starting job to Sam Bradford, I fully expected the Rams to go through tremendous growing pains as their rookie quarterback grew into the position.  Instead, the rookie has shown great poise and confidence and St. Louis is right in the middle of the chase for the NFC West crown.  Against the Chargers, Bradford posted his third game of the year with a QB rating greater than 84 and his first game without a turnover.  The kid is taking his lumps but he is on pace to throw for over 3,600 yards and nearly 20 touchdowns despite the lack of established playmakers on the outside.  Frankly, Steven Jackson is the only respected offensive weapon on the Rams roster, but Bradford is still making plays with the likes of Laurent Robinson, Donnie Avery, Mardy Gilyard, Danerio Alexander and Danny Amendola.  Basically, Bradford is making the players around him better, which is what you should expect from a quarterback picked number one overall.  You also have to like the kid’s perseverance and toughness.  After his worst performance of the year against Detroit, Bradford bounced back with his most steady game of the season.  Bradford’s leadership qualities help in two ways.  First of all, his character when the times are tough demonstrates to his teammates that he is not going to lie down after a bad loss.  Secondly, Bradford is also showing his team that he isn’t going to stand for the losing tradition that has enveloped the St. Louis organization over the last few years.  Before Bradford arrived, the Rams were 3-33.  Since he took the reins, the Rams have already matched that win total.  It appears that St. Louis hit a home run by selecting Bradford as their franchise quarterback.

Bradford is not the only reason that the Rams are playing better.  A lot of credit has to go to the defensive unit that has unleashed an aggressive style of play fueled by a promising batch of young players.  Steve Spagnuolo was responsible for the defense that harassed Tom Brady during the N.Y. Giants Super Bowl-winning season in 2007 and he has finally assembled a group of players in St. Louis that can apply the principles that were so successful in Gotham.  Spagnuolo wants to apply consistent pressure with his front four and the approach is paying dividends in St. Louis.  The Rams are ranked in the top ten in sacks with 17 and their defensive line has produced 13 of their total.  The sack attack is being led by 11-year veteran James Hall, who is already more than halfway to his career-high sack total of 11.5.  The defense is also getting great leadership from young players like James Laurinaitis and Oshiomogho Atogwe.  Those two guys are the number one and number three leading tacklers on the team and their aggressive style of play is rubbing off on the entire unit.  The biggest contribution that the defense is making is that they are holding opponents out of the end zone.  They have held five out of six opponents to 17 points or less, which is good enough for them to be in the top 10 in scoring defense.  As a result of the stinginess, the Rams have been able to be competitive despite scoring more than 20 points just once all season.  Overall, things are looking up for the St. Louis Rams.  They seem to have the most important position in football set in stone for the next 10 years and their defense is gaining confidence with every week played, so it would not surprise me to see them take control of the NFC West in the next couple of years.

(3)              The New England Patriots have made a cottage industry of disposing of players before they decline too rapidly, when they start clamoring for more money or when they start becoming too much of a distraction.  The lengthy list includes Adalius Thomas, Assante Samuel, Deion Branch and Randy Moss.  The Patriots have had an arrogance about them that has told the rest of the league that they can always find a younger, cheaper, more committed player to replace the veteran contributor that they shipped out.  Since their 2007 Super Bowl appearance, the Patriots’ system has lost its way.  They were still good enough to make playoff appearances, but they had lost too many of the high character, high value guys, like Mike Vrabel and Teddie Bruschi, to be true championship contenders.  In the last 10 days, we have witnessed the Patriots work in both expected and unexpected ways.  The expected move came when they traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings after Moss apparently became too much of a squeaky wheel.  The unexpected move came when they traded for Deion Branch in an attempt to recapture some of their Super Bowl glory days.  Branch had languished in Seattle since being traded before the 2007 season and bringing him back seemed to be a small concession by the New England organization that it is not always better to replace guys that helped you win championships.  Branch had a triumphant return to Foxboro with nine catches for 98 yards and one touchdown.  In his first game back, he quickly reestablished the chemistry that he had with Tom Brady in his first stint with the team.  Frankly, it was a chemistry that he was never able to find in Seattle due to injury troubles and three different head coaches.  In the end, the Branch trade back to New England appears to be a win-win for both organizations.  Branch gets an opportunity to reclaim his best days as a professional football player and Seattle gets to give his playing time to younger players that will be part of their system for a much longer time.

Week Six Picks

Here are my picks for week six (home teams in CAPS):

CHICAGO over Seattle

Miami over GREEN BAY

San Diego over ST LOUIS

NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore

TAMPA BAY over New Orleans

NEW YORK GIANTS over Detroit

Atlanta over PHILADELPHIA

PITTSBURGH over Cleveland

HOUSTON over Kansas City

SAN FRANCISCO over Oakland

New York Jets over DENVER

MINNESOTA over Dallas

Indianapolis over WASHINGTON

Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 35-25 (missed week two)

Week Five Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Randy Moss became the 10^th player in NFL history, selected to 5 or more Pro Bowls, to return to the team for which he made his debut.  The list includes four HOFers: Larry Csonka, Paul Warfield, Dave Casper and Joe DeLamielleure as well as Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Taylor and Mark Stepnoski.

Stat of the week No. 2: The Chargers have allowed six offensive touchdowns and six non-offensive touchdowns this season (two kickoff returns, two fumble returns, one punt return and one blocked punt return).

Stat of the week No. 3: The Cardinals are 9-0 in last 9 games following a loss including playoffs.

Stat of the week No. 4: Prior to 2010, there were 6 teams starting 9-0 or better in the previous 5 seasons (at least one 9-0 team in each season).

Stat of the week No. 5: There has now been a kick return TD in each of the first five weeks of a season for the first time since at least 1950.

Are the Colts vulnerable and other NFL thoughts

(1) For the first time since 1970, the NFL does not have a 4-0 team. The Indianapolis Colts ensured this result with a methodical 19-9 victory over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The game was not pretty, but the Colts once again flashed their veteran moxie, which allowed them to pull out a victory that most teams would be unable to earn. They won this game despite the fact that Peyton Manning had one of his worst days in recent memory thanks to the assortment of nickel and dime packages that Romeo Crennel unleashed on him. I’m sure that Crennel reached into the old bag of tricks that he used when the New England Patriots tormented Manning during their dynastic run during the early part of the 2000s. Unfortunately, the strong defensive effort from the young Chiefs was not enough as the Colts got four field goals from Adam Vinatieri and a late touchdown from third-string running back Mike Hart to escape with the big victory.


The Colts’ struggles against the Chiefs is more proof that this year’s team is more flawed than some of the other Colts teams during their prolonged run of 12 win seasons. Their passing game is still one of their strengths, but it was out of synch all game against the Chiefs, which directly contributed to their inability to score touchdowns and struggle to convert third down opportunities. Nevertheless, I don’t believe that the Colts have anything to worry about when it comes to their passing attack. Manning finished week five with over 1,600 yards passing and the Colts entered this Sunday’s game with the number two passing game in the NFL at 335 yards per game. The bigger concerns for Indianapolis are their lack of a true running game and their inability to stop their opponent’s running game. The former is going to continue to put Manning in the precarious position of having to throw the football constantly in order to have a chance to win. I’m not really sure why the running game has been so inconsistent considering that Manning is a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. Manning’s presence alone should be enough to open up some decent running lanes, but Indianapolis has been shut down on a regular basis. The Colts entered the game with the 29th ranked rushing offense in the NFL and actually improved their ranking with a 97 yard effort against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, Joseph Addai left with an injury, which meant the Colts had to dig deep into the depth chart to find someone to run the football. It will be interesting to see where the Colts go from here. In the past, they have been able to win a lot of games without the greatest running game, but this team seems to have less of a margin for error.

The biggest reason that the Colts’ margin has shrunk is related to the gradual decaying of their defense. After a stellar year in 2007 when Indianapolis finished 3rd overall in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 1st in turnover ratio and 1st in scoring defense, the Colts have dropped all the way to the 23rd ranked defense so far in 2010. They are middle of the pack in passing defense and points allowed. Their sack rate per game is down about a ½ sack from 2009 and they continue to struggle stopping the run as their 29th ranked rushing defense attests. The fact of the matter is that Indianapolis has not been better than the 15th ranked rush defense in the last five seasons. Frankly, their porous run defense has not stopped them from winning before and I don’t expect it to be a hindrance this year. I would be more concerned about the worsening scoring defense, which has increased from 16.4 pts/gm in 2007 to 20.2 pts/gm through the first five weeks of 2010, and the declining sack rate, which has occurred despite the presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. On the other hand, maybe I shouldn’t be concerned at all about the Indianapolis defense because the last time that they performed this badly on defense they won their only Super Bowl title in the Manning era. Instead of being a cause for concern, the Colts are probably just playing possum with the rest of the league just like they did prior to their Super Bowl winning run when they allowed 212.5 rushing yards per game during the last quarter of the season. I still think that the Colts are the class of the AFC South and they will emerge as the division champs after everything is said and done.

(2) I’m wondering if the New Orleans Saints have come back from their lengthy celebration of their Super Bowl victory yet. I’m asking because the team that has taken the field in 2010 bears little resemblance to the 2009 juggernaut that led the league in total offense and scoring offense. Last year’s team won games by an average of 10 points, while this year’s team is giving up more points than they are scoring. On the surface, not much has changed with the Saints, but underneath the covers there are a lot of things for Saints fans to worry about. First of all, this year’s team is sputtering along on offense as their overall production has decreased by 15% from 2009 numbers. My first observation from watching some of their games is that the Saints are not producing the big play (20+ yards) as consistently as they have in the past. Through the first five games of last season, the Saints produced 29 plays of 20 yards or more, including an astonishing nine in their rout of the New York Giants in week six. Through the same period this year, New Orleans has generated just 15 big plays, including just one against the inexperienced Carolina Panthers defense.

As a result of their inability to make big plays and score quickly, the Saints have been forced to put together long drives by focusing on short & intermediate routes as well as their running game. The short passing game has been fairly effective, but the Saints’ running game has failed them completely after being a strength in 2009. The New Orleans’ running game production is down 42% from a year ago, which has short-circuited the Saints attack. It hasn’t helped to lose Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas for multiple games, but New Orleans actually had their best running day, against Carolina, when both Thomas and Bush were unavailable. As a result, opposing defenses have been able to take away a huge part of the Saints game plan and put even more pressure on Brees and the short passing game. With Brees under greater pressure, the turnovers have increased slightly and the Saints have been unable to sustain long drives on a regular basis. In addition, New Orleans has not been able to translate their successful drives into touchdowns, settling for field goal attempts at a seemingly higher rate. The problem with more field goal attempts is that their kicking game is one of the worst five or six in the NFL with less than 70% field goal accuracy. Finally, it has hurt to not have Bush available to return punts, which has reduced the threat of getting a big play in the return game. The overall result is that the Saints are scoring approximately 12 points less per game than one year ago, which is a shame because their defense is playing well enough for the Saints to be an undefeated team. Their defense is 9th in total defense and they are giving up about 20 points per game, which is good for 17th in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Saints are making too many mistakes to take advantage of the positive play from their defense. A missed field goal cost them a victory against the Falcons and three turnovers, which led to 21 points, cost them the game against Arizona. I still think the Saints can win the NFC South, but they are going to have to find ways to recapture the big play component that they relied on so much last season.

(3) The NFL has always been a league of parity, but the 2010 season might be taking things to a whole other level. After Kansas City went down this weekend, we are left without any undefeated teams just five weeks into the season. We have three teams: Atlanta, Baltimore and the N.Y. Jets (depending on what happens on Monday Night) who are trying to separate themselves from the rest of the league. Their success is built on heady quarterback play, strong defense and a productive running game. After five weeks, this trio is the closest thing that we have to elite teams in the NFL. I think that the Pittsburgh Steelers are right on the heels of this first group. If the integration of Ben Roethlisberger goes smoothly, then they probably jump right in to the top two because their defense is solid. Also, we have a threesome of really bad teams that have yet to earn a victory. The Carolina Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback and the last year of the John Fox regime seems to be heading to a fiery crash landing. The Buffalo Bills are probably the biggest disaster in the NFL and they recently released their former franchise quarterback and traded their former franchise running back. They are starting a journeyman quarterback and the rest of their roster does not have enough talent to win at the NFL level. If the NFL was run like a European soccer league, the Bills would have long been demoted to the UFL or the Big East, where it would be much easier for them to reclaim their lost glory. The San Francisco 49ers have gone from NFC West front-runners to NFL punch lines in the span of five weeks due to a symphony of turnovers, bad coaching and disinterested play. The York family may still believe that the 49ers will win the division, but no one else does. After separating the cream from the top of the NFL and the coffee grounds that inhabit the bottom of the league, we are left with 26 teams that are all about the same.

In this mix in the middle, we have teams like the Washington Redskins, who can get embarrassed by the St. Louis Rams on the road one week and dominate the Green Bay Packers at home the next. The Skins appear to have a stout defense, but their offense has yet to get on track even though they added Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb. We also have the Arizona Cardinals, who have been destroyed twice this season and have also defeated the defending Super Bowl champs without any real contribution from their offense. Does anyone outside of Phoenix truly think that the Cardinals are a good team? If so, then I have some prime farmland to sell them in the Mojave Desert. Let us not forget the mediocre Cincinnati Bengals, who won the AFC North last season and probably couldn’t even win the Cincinnati Metro Athletic Conference this season. The Bengals front office handed Carson Palmer some shiny new offensive toys and he has managed to turn it into a pile of cow feces with a side of rat droppings. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the most “competitive” division in the NFL: the AFC South. I’m thinking that fans of this division would love to describe it as being competitive, but it would only be a smokescreen to hide how badly the four teams have played. The Texans beat the AFC South bullies, the Indianapolis Colts, during week one, but have been dismantled by the Dallas Cowboys and N.Y. Giants at Reliant Stadium. The Colts have good wins over the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, but they have dug themselves a huge division hole due to their losses to Houston and Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing pretty well, but how can we forget their disasters on the road at San Diego and at home against Philadelphia. Finally, the Tennessee Titans got a big road victory in Dallas just one week after falling flat at home against Denver. The bottom line is that I can’t trust most of these teams at all. I went 7-7 with my week four picks and I need the Jets to win on Monday Night just to reach a .500 record this week. It may not be good for gamblers, but the roller coaster nature of the 2010 season is gold for fans even though you never know how your favorite team is going to perform.

Week Five Picks

Here are my picks for week five (home teams in CAPS):

BUFFALO over Jacksonville

Tampa Bay over CINCINNATI

Atlanta over CLEVELAND

DETROIT over St. Louis

INDIANAPOLIS over Kansas City

Green Bay over WASHINGTON

Chicago over CAROLINA

BALTIMORE over Denver

HOUSTON over N.Y. Giants

New Orleans over ARIZONA

DALLAS over Tennessee

San Diego over OAKLAND

SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia

N.Y. JETS over Minnesota

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 28-18 (missed week two)

Week Four Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: The St. Louis Rams ended a 15-game losing streak against the NFC West and have now held their first four opponents to 17 points or fewer for the first time since 1978.

Stat of the week No. 2: Terrell Owens had 222 yards receiving, which was the second highest of his career and the second-most in franchise history. At 36 years, 300 days old, T.O. is the oldest in NFL history to have a 200-yard receiving game. Owens also passed Isaac Bruce for second all-time on the receiving list with 15,325 career receiving yards.

Stat of the week No. 3: Josh Scobee’s game-winning 59-yard FG was the longest field goal in franchise history and the third-longest game-winning field goal in the NFL since 1983.

Stat of the week No. 4: Kyle Orton has 1,419 passing yards this season, the second-highest total through the first four games to start a season in NFL history (Kurt Warner had 1,557 yards in 2000).

Stat of the week No. 5: Tony Gonzalez became the 17th player in NFL history, and the first TE, to reach 12,000 receiving yards.

The biggest frauds in the NFC and other NFL thoughts

(1)              I’m not really sure what to make of the NFC North.  On paper, the division boasts three of the best quarterbacks and defenses in the NFL, but the entire group has struggled through the first quarter of the season.  You might be surprised that I’m writing that the division isn’t playing up to the par considering that Chicago and Green Bay both sport 3-1 records after the first four weeks, but I believe that the results are a bit misleading.

I think that Chicago is the biggest fraud of the group.  They escaped week one after the officials took away a touchdown from Calvin Johnson because he didn’t completely control the ball while getting up to celebrate his apparent game-winning catch.  Some people might counter my argument by saying that Chicago statistically dominated the game against the Lions with 463 total yards versus just 168 total yards for Detroit.  Nevertheless, the Bears never were able to put away the Ferocious Felines because they turned the ball over four times, committed 100 yards worth of penalties and ran the ball terribly (31 carries for 101 yards).  The latter statistic has become an ongoing problem for the Bears.  In week two, Chicago got a seemingly big victory on the road in Dallas, but they were the team that got dominated for most of the game.  Dallas amassed 410 total yards of offense, but they were undone by three turnovers, which allowed the Bears to win the game despite converting just one third down in 11 attempts.  Chicago also overcame their inability to move the ball on the ground (19 carries for 38 yards).  I can give the Bears a little credit for getting a road win against a supposed Super Bowl contender, which means that this is the only win they deserve.  In week three, Chicago was given a victory on a silver platter as the Green Bay Packers decided to implode in historic fashion with an astonishing 18 penalties for 152 total yards.  Despite the team record in penalties, the Packers were poised to win the game before James Jones fumbled in the final minutes, which led to Robbie Gould’s game-winning kick with four seconds on the clock.  The Bears once again were unable to run the football and got dominated by their opponent in total yards and time of possession.  For intents and purposes, Chicago should have been 1-2 instead of 3-0.  As a result, the national media turned their attention to the Bears and started blowing smoke up the fanny of anyone associated with the Bears.  Fortunately, the Bears were cut down to size on Sunday Night Football by the N.Y. Giants.  The G-Men knocked Jay Cutler and back-up Todd Collins out of the game on their way to racking up 10 sacks.  Their sack attack fell two shy of the NFL record, but it did help New York limit the Bears to 110 total yards of offense, six first downs and zero third down conversions. 

Their awful performance against the Giants has exposed Chicago as a team that had no business being undefeated through the first three weeks of the season.  Frankly, they are a mediocre team at best.  They entered Sunday night’s game with the fourth-worst rushing attack in the NFL and their atrocious performance on the ground against the Giants is not going to help their ranking at all.  They have the potential to be explosive in the passing game, but their woeful offensive line and their middling wide receiver group will continue to hold them back and keep them as a middle-of-the-pack offensive team.  On defense, they are also no better than average due to the fact that they have been routinely lit up in the passing game, which explains their 28^th ranked pass defense.  They have been one of the stingiest run defenses in the NFL, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs ran up 189 yards with a 5.9 yards per carry average on Sunday night.  I predict that the Bears will struggle next week with the Carolina Panthers, especially if Jay Cutler is unable to play due to the concussion is suffered against New York.  The bottom line for me is that the Bears are an 8-8 team that was able to masquerade like a top-notch NFL team due to some extremely fortunate circumstances. 

(2)              So far, the 2010 season has been a little topsy-turvy with expected heavyweights like Dallas and Minnesota starting slow and perennial doormats like Kansas City and Houston looking like contenders.  After four weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs are the only remaining undefeated team as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears went down in defeat.  With these recent developments, it looks like Mercury Morris and his 1972 Miami Dolphins are going to be breaking out the champagne pretty early this year.  I think that the Chiefs have improved, but they have no chance of running the table.  Frankly, their 3-0 record is deceiving because they have beat teams with a combined record of 3-9.  I will concede that they did take care of business against the division favorites, the San Diego Chargers, but it was a home victory when everything, including the weather, lined up for an upset.  Not only do I not believe that the Chiefs have any chance of joining the 1972 Dolphins in the record books, I don’t even believe that they are the best team in the NFL right now. 

There are several teams with 3-1 records that could be thrown into the discussion about which team is the best right now.  You can probably make a case for Houston, Green Bay, New Orleans or Atlanta, but I believe that the debate really boils down to two teams: Baltimore and the New York Jets.  On the positive side of the ledger for the Ravens, they have a head-to-head victory over the Jets as well as another impressive road victory over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  They have the 6^th ranked defense in the NFL based on total defense and they are the 5^th ranked scoring defense.  On the negative side, the Ravens have been mediocre on offense.  They are 22^nd in total offense and rushing offense.  They are 27^th in scoring offense with an average of just over 15 points per game.  They were supposed to have an improved offense with the additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but the expected improvement has yet to materialize.  The more damning part of their offensive performance thus far has been their inability to run the ball consistently.  They have been averaging just a shade over 88 yards per game rushing, which means that Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have not been finding consistent running lanes.  It is fortunate that Baltimore has a dominating defense because they might be winless if their defense was in the bottom half of the NFL and their offense was expected to carry the weight.  In addition to their offensive struggles, the Ravens lost an ugly game to the unimpressive Cincinnati Bengals and they have the worst turnover ratio (-9) in the AFC, which means they are turning the ball over at an alarming rate.  Overall, I think the most impressive part of the Ravens’ start is that they have won three out of four games even though they have spent three out of four weeks on the road.

The Jets may have a head-to-head loss to the Ravens, but they have clearly been the most impressive team in the NFL over the last three weeks.  Since that opening day face plant against Baltimore, the Jets have averaged 32.3 points per game in victories over New England, Miami (road) and Buffalo (road).  In addition, New York has racked up 555 yards rushing with an average of 5 yards per carry.  The running game has dominated behind the young legs of Shonn Greene and the rejuvenated legs of LaDanian Tomlinson.  The situation with Greene and Tomlinson has developed into a true timeshare with the vet getting 56 carries and the kid getting 52 carries.  LT is averaging an astonishing six yards per carry after averaging 3.8 yards per clip in 2008 and 3.3 yards last season, which effectively wrote his own pink slip in San Diego.  Tomlinson is only 13 yards behind last season’s rushing champ, Chris Johnson, after four weeks.  With his 133-yard, two touchdown performance against the Bills, Tomlinson moved past Tony Dorsett into seventh place on the all-time rushing list.  In addition, he joined Jim Brown as the only backs ever to rush for 100 yards and two touchdowns in a game 25 times.  The only thing more surprising than LT’s resurgence might be the lights out play from quarterback Mark Sanchez.  The Sanchize started the year with a dud performance against Baltimore in which he threw for only 74 yards and posted a horrible 56.4 QB rating.  Since that awful beginning, Sanchez has thrown eight touchdowns against zero interceptions and posted a 117.5 QB rating.  For God’s sake, he is the fourth highest rated quarterback in the NFL with a better rating than Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo among others.  As a result, New York is winning games despite the fact that their defense is only ranked 16^th in the NFL in total defense.  In my opinion, the Jets’ ability to make plays and score points on offense makes them an even scarier opponent.  When their defense gets healthier and starts playing at their customary level, I think the Jets have an opportunity to run away with the AFC East.  In the end, I give the slight edge to the Baltimore Ravens on the strength of their head-to-head win over the New York. 

(3)                Donovan McNabb stayed classy until the end, but it had to feel good to return to Philadelphia and score a huge victory over his former team.  I also have to applaud the majority of Eagles’ fans that gave McNabb a hearty reception when he was introduced before the game.  I know that McNabb had a love-hate relationship with the Philly fans, so it was nice to them pay Donovan the respect that he had earned based on his stellar play over 11 seasons in the City of Brotherly Love.  Unfortunately, for Eagles’ fans, McNabb paid back their classy move by leading the Redskins to a big division victory.  McNabb was far from spectacular with only eight completions and 125 passing yards, but I think he provided an emotional boost and great leadership to his teammates.  I’m pretty sure that his fellow players wanted to win this game badly for McNabb because they respect him as a professional football player and as a human being.  I’m a firm believer that good things happen to good people and I don’t think they come much better in the game of football than Donovan McNabb.  Throughout his tumultuous years in Philadelphia, he always kept his composure and behaved professionally, which further highlighted the pettiness of his detractors. 

In the end, Washington pulled out the victory because they ran the football effectively and they got after the Eagles offense.  The Redskins offense tormented the Eagles on the ground to the tune of 169 yards rushing.  Even though Clinton Portis got injured, Washington kept rolling behind the bruising running style of Ryan Torain (18 carries for 70 yards).  It is pretty clear that running the football is part of the identity of any Mike Shanahan-coached team, so it was not surprising to see Washington rely on their running backs instead of allowing McNabb to throw the football a lot.  With the stability that McNabb provides at the quarterback position, I’m pretty confident that the Skins can be a good offense if they can get consistency from their rushing attack.  I also think they have a good defense despite the fact that they are attempting to play a 3-4 defense without proper 3-4 personnel.  Even though they allowed over 350 yards of total offense to the Eagles, the Redskins forced two turnovers and made it a point to set the tone with some hard hits early in the game.  One of those bone-jarring hits sent Mike Vick to an early shower with a rib injury.  The diagnosis after the game was the Vick had suffered broken ribs, which calls his availability for the upcoming San Francisco game into question.  The other important thing that Washington did on Sunday was get off the field on third down.  In turn, the Eagles struggled to keep drives alive and settled for a season-low 12 points.  I think this game highlights the fact that the NFC East is going to be a dogfight once again.

Week Four Picks

Here are my picks for week four (home teams in CAPS):

ATLANTA over San Francisco
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND
N.Y. Jets over BUFFALO
Seattle over ST. LOUIS
TENNESSEE over Denver
GREEN BAY over Detroit
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina
Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE
Houston over OAKLAND
PHILADELPHIA over Washington
SAN DIEGO over Arizona
N.Y. GIANTS over Chicago

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 21-11 (missed week two)