Commish's Game of the Week: Detroit at Dallas

Preview
The game between the Detroit and Dallas is one of the marquee match-ups in week four of the NFL season. These two teams might be worlds apart when it comes to the success they have had as a franchise, but they look like carbon copies this season on the field. First of all, both teams bring top-notch passing attacks to the table led by two quarterbacks that love to throw the ball all over the field. Both teams are in the top five in passing yards per game and the top 10 in yards/attempt, which means they are not only throwing the ball a lot, but they are also throwing the ball with great effect. Secondly, both teams have struggled mightily to run the football despite having young, dynamic running backs and a passing game that should seemingly open up the running lanes. They are both averaging around three yards per carry and 78 yards/game, which puts them among the five or six worst running teams in the NFL. The final similarity takes us to the defensive side of things, where both teams are getting after the quarterback on a regular basis. The Cowboys lead the league with 13 sacks after three games and the Lions are 11th in the league with eight sacks. It is no surprise that they are harassing the quarterback position because they both have elite pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware and Ndamukong Suh. In addition, they both have unheralded guys like Cliff Avril and Anthony Spencer that have been getting the job done in the shadows for the last couple of years.

The big differences between the Lions and Cowboys are found on defense and the turnover differential. The two defenses look a little like polar opposites when you put aside their ability to apply pressure in the pocket. First of all, the Lions look much stingier against the pass after the first few weeks. Detroit is fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and third in the league in passing yards per attempt. The numbers sure look great, but Detroit hasn’t exactly faced the quarterback elite during the first three weeks. The challenge of slowing down Tony Romo, even with the absence of Miles Austin and the thigh injury slowing down Dez Bryant, is going to be slightly more difficult than stopping Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel and the quarterback formerly known as Donovan McNabb. Conversely, the Cowboys have been a little vulnerable as a pass defense. They are currently in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed and yards/attempt, which is disconcerting when you consider that they have faced Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith and Rex Grossman in the first three weeks. Secondly, the Cowboys have been much stouter against the run, allowing just 61 yards per game, while the Lions have allowed 113 yards per game. The Cowboys’ run defense looks for real because they have stymied three teams that appear to have a run-first mentality. Finally, these teams have been very different when it comes to taking care of the ball and taking the ball away from their opponent. The Lions currently lead the NFL with a +6 turnover differential, while the Cowboys have had a bad start to the season with a -2 differential. There can be a certain element of luck with causing turnovers, but a positive turnover ratio can indicate an aggressive defense and an offense that values the football.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Protect the quarterback – Both of these teams have elite pass rushers that can cause havoc in the passing game. The Cowboys lead the league in sacks behind the talents of Ware and Spencer, while the Lions have applied their fair share of pressure, despite the prolonged absence of their number one pick, Nick Fairley. The team that keeps their quarterback the cleanest will be in a great position to win the football game. In my opinion, the advantage goes to Detroit because their key offensive weapons are healthy and they have much more experience on the offensive line.

2. Run the football effectively – As I stated earlier, neither team has been successful running the football this year. In this game, both teams need to find some room on the ground in order to slow the opposing pass rush and take some of the pressure off their respective quarterbacks. The advantage goes to Dallas because I think they have the better running back and they get to attack the Lions’ vulnerable run defense.

3. Take full advantage of red zone opportunities – Despite having similar offensive profiles, the Lions have scored about 10 more points per game than the Cowboys. One of the reasons for the difference is that Dallas has had injuries to all of their key playmakers. The other reason is that Detroit has been more successful scoring touchdowns in the red zone. On the season, the Lions have scored seven points on eight of 13 opportunities. On the other hand, the Cowboys have scored touchdowns on just three out of 10 opportunities. I give the advantage to the Lions because they have one of the best red zone targets in Calvin Johnson and a developing weapon in Brandon Pettigrew.

Prediction
Detroit 27 – Dallas 21

Week Four Picks

Here are my picks for week four (home teams in CAPS):

BEARS over Panthers
Bills over BENGALS
BROWNS over Titans
Lions over COWBOYS
Vikings over CHIEFS
RAMS over Redskins
EAGLES over 49ers
Saints over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Steelers
Giants over CARDINALS
PACKERS over Broncos
RAIDERS over Patriots
CHARGERS over Dolphins
RAVENS over Jets
BUCCANEERS over Colts
SEAHAWKS over Falcons

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 32-16

Week Three Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Buffalo is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in which it trailed by at least 18 points.

Stat of the week No. 2: There have been 33 individual 300-yard passing games this season, which is the most through the first three weeks in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 3: Calvin Johnson is the first player in history to have at least two TD catches in each of his team’s first three games.

Stat of the week No. 4: Drew Brees is the fourth player in NFL history to throw TD pass in 30 consecutive games (Unitas – 47 games, Favre – 36 games, Marino – 30 games).

Stat of the week No. 5: In the past two weeks, Minnesota has been ahead at halftime by a combined score of 37-0 and lost both games.

Bonus stat of the week: The San Francisco 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since November 2009.

Texans are still pretenders and other NFL thoughts

(1)              It is commonly said that the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I would like to add another item: declaring the Houston Texans as serious contenders in the NFL.  For at least the last three or four years, the media has been obsessed with predicting that the Texans were ready to make their first playoff appearance and/or challenge the elite in the AFC South.  Although they have shown glimpses of promise, the Texans have finished outside of the postseason in every year of their existence.  This year, the door to the playoffs was kicked off the hinges thanks to the neck injury suffered by Peyton Manning, which forced the Indianapolis Colts to bring the ancient Kerry Collins out of retirement.  With the biggest difference-maker in the division on the shelf, the experts were convinced that there was no way that Houston wouldn’t win the AFC South.  The Texans still had a dynamic offense led by Matt Schaub and Arian Foster and they had addressed their biggest problem of 2010 by hiring Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator and signing Jonathan Joseph to a free-agent contract.  The changes paid dividends early as they crushed the Colts on opening day and handled the Dolphins in week two.  After two weeks, the Texans were actually the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL!  My computer nearly shut itself down after I finished typing that sentence.  Even more impressive, Houston had won both games with nearly no contribution from their All-Pro running back.  The stars seemed to be finally aligning for the City of Houston to have a playoff team for the first time since Warren Moon’s last season in 1993.

I’m still confident that the Texans are going to win their first division title, but my vote of confidence is more about the relative weakness of their competition.  They have a retiree playing quarterback for one of their opponents and a rookie playing for another.  Their stiffest divisional opponent is probably the Titans, but they just lost their best receiver to a season-ending knee injury and their quarterback is one big hit away from the infirmary.  If the Texans can’t win this sad-sack division, then they might as well fold up the tents permanently on professional football in Houston.  A non-division title this year would be more embarrassing than giving up a 32-point third quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills back in 1992.  Unfortunately, I think that the Texans will have reached their ceiling if they do manage to earn a division title.  I still don’t believe that this team has the necessary chops to win a playoff game.  In order for me to change my mind, they need to win a big game or two, especially on the road.  I will give them credit for their huge season-opening win over the Colts last season, but they went into the tank for the rest of the year.  This year, they beat the Colts again, but with a guy, whose daily schedule a month ago consisted of 18 holes of golf and the early bird special, playing quarterback.  They also beat the Dolphins, but their quarterback is a back-up masquerading as a starter.  The Texans’ first real test of the 2011 season was playing the New Orleans Saints on the road.  In my opinion, they failed the test miserably.  Houston led the Saints 26-17 with 14:54 remaining in the fourth quarter and desperately needed to close the door on New Orleans to show that they were ready to make the next step.  Unfortunately, the Saints, led by Drew Brees, blitzed the Texans 23-7 down the stretch and pulled out the hard-fought victory.  I know that Brees is an elite quarterback in the NFL, but good teams don’t allow their opponents to score on three consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter on drives that lasted less than two minutes each.  Good teams find ways to grind out first downs in the fourth quarter instead of putting their gassed defense back on the field.  I don’t think that the Texans are a good team.  They are good enough to win a division title, but so were the Seattle Seahawks last year and no one thought they were a quality team.  The Texans have a brutal four-game stretch upcoming that gives them an opportunity to start changing the perception that people have about them.

(2)  The Oakland Raiders are starting to look like a team that could surprise some folks in the AFC.  They are a whisker away from being the only undefeated team in the conference and they seem to be developing a personality that harkens back to the glory days of the franchise.  Obviously, the biggest stain on their 2011 resume is blowing a 21-3 halftime lead against the Buffalo Bills in week two.  Their second half meltdown speaks to one of my principal concerns about the Raiders: their defense.  They allowed the Bills to score 35 points in the second half and allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense including 223 yards on the ground.  Actually, Buffalo never had to send their punting unit onto the field in the second half.  They scored touchdowns on five straight possessions and each of scoring drives was in excess of 55 yards, including three 80-yard drives.  This was a Chernobyl-style implosion by a defense that many observers believed would be much improved, especially across the defensive line.  They followed up the devastating loss to the Bills by allowing nearly 450 total yards against the Jets, but I observed two key differences that I thought were positive signs for Oakland.  First of all, they played the run much better against the Jets.  It is common knowledge that New York wants to play smash-mouth football, but the Raiders were not willing to go along with the plan.  They allowed just 100 yards on 25 carries and forced a fumble from Shonn Greene.  Secondly, I thought that the Raiders brought a controlled fury that knocked around the Jets pretty good.  Their physical play put a hurting on Mark Sanchez and guaranteed that he wouldn’t be enjoying a foot long in the fourth quarter.  Sanchez threw for 369 yards, but I believe your chances for victory against the Jets increase when he is asked to carry the load.  The Raiders are far from a perfect defense, but they are able to mask some of their deficiencies when they play with the ferocious, hard-hitting style that we saw on Sunday.

I like the Raiders even more because of what I’m seeing from their offense.  First of all, they are establishing a reputation for running the ball down their opponents’ throats.  Darren McFadden referred to the progression of their ground game as “building a bully.”  They want to play offense like they are the biggest, baddest guys on the block.  The first three weeks of the season have shown that they are doing a pretty good job of implementing their vision.  Through the first three games, Oakland is leading the NFL in rushing and they produced the most rushing yards ever against a Rex Ryan-led Jets team.  I believe they have the makings of a running game similar to the Earth, Wind & Fire group from the New York Giants a few years ago.  Right now, they are led by the dynamic play-making ability of McFadden, who I believe is developing into the most complete running back in the NFL.  He may not be more talented than Adrian Peterson as a pure runner, but his ability to catch the football and pass block makes him a unique package.  In addition, they have the bruising running style of Michael Bush to use in short-yardage situations or when the defense has tired of chasing after McFadden.  Finally, they have the ability to throw a change-up at the defense with Taiwan Jones’ blazing speed.  Once Jones gains a little more experience, I think that the Raiders are going to be nearly unstoppable running the football.  Also, I like that Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing the offense.  He knows that the Raiders don’t have a lot of experience on the outside, so he’s taking what the defense gives him and allowing the Raiders to rely heavily on their running game.  Campbell only threw for 156 yards, but Oakland still scored 34 points and beat a very good conference opponent.  In reality, Campbell has had two very mediocre games in his three starts, but the Raiders have won them both.  If Oakland can continue to follow their offensive recipe and they get a marginal improvement from their defense, then they are going to give the Chargers a run for their money in the AFC West.

(3) The Philadelphia Eagles are locked in a high risk/high reward situation with Michael Vick.  The high risk comes with giving the guy a $100 million contract after he blew every single opportunity that his last $100 million contract afforded him.  The Eagles are obviously hoping and praying that Vick has grown up since his titanic failure to live up to all the expectations in Atlanta, but we can’t ignore the fact that he was released from prison about 2.5 years because his personal life was completely out of control.  The dogfighting conviction and the prison stint would be big enough issues on their own, but Vick adds an additional layer of extreme risk due to the fragility that he has exhibited in his career.  He has played the full 16-game slate just once in his career and he missed four games just last season.  If Vick cannot keep his nose clean off the field or his body healthy on the field, then the Eagles’ investment is going to go up in smoke Bernie Madoff-style. 

The Eagles are willing to take the risk because they have seen the rewards that Vick’s talent can generate on the field.  They saw him eviscerate the Jacksonville Jaguars in week three last year.  They saw his pantheon game against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night football.  They saw him flip the switch in the second half in a dominating performance against the New York Giants.  Despite missing the four games, Vick was still able to lead the Eagles to a division title and a home playoff game.  He couldn’t deliver in the playoffs, but he once again demonstrated a peerless level of play-making, which convinced the Eagles to trade away Kevin Kolb in the offseason and push all their chips to the center of the table for Vick.  After the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia has received an uneven return on their investment, which is probably putting it mildly.  In week one, he lead the team to a victory on the road, but he looked very much like the Atlanta version of Mike Vick.  He was erratic throwing the football, but he used his legs to counter-balance his inaccurate passing.  Following the shaky debut, Vick has been knocked out of the last two games with injuries.  The ironic part is that both injuries occurred while he stood in the pocket, which wasn’t the location that everyone thought he would be hurt.  The popular thought was that Vick was sure to be injured as he ran recklessly through the opponent’s secondary on one of his trademark scrambles.  The bottom line is that Vick will continue to be injury-prone due to his style of play and his slight frame.  If the Eagles want to protect their investment, then they need to spend more time on improving their offensive line rather than complaining about the amount of times that Vick gets hit by opposing defenses.  While it may be true that Vick doesn’t get protected like other quarterbacks, it is counterproductive to publicly critique the same people that you are expecting to provide protection.  The biggest mistake that the Eagles made was not handing the huge contract to Vick, it was making wholesale changes on the offensive line even though their prized quarterback has a history of injuries.  All the talk around their splashy free agent moves glossed over the biggest risk they took going into the season: new faces at four of the five offensive line positions.

Week Three Picks

Here are my picks for week three (home teams in CAPS):

Patriots over BILLS
BENGALS over 49ers
BROWNS over Dolphins
TITANS over Broncos
Lions over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Texans
EAGLES over Giants
PANTHERS over Jaguars
Jets over RAIDERS
Ravens over RAMS
CHARGERS over Chiefs
Packers over BEARS
Falcons over BUCCANEERS
Steelers over COLTS
Redskins over COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS over Cardinals

Last Week: 14-2
Overall: 23-9

Week Two Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Detroit’s 45-point win is the Lions’ largest since beating the Browns 59-14 in the 1957 NFL Championship Game.

Stat of the week No. 2: Donald Driver passed James Lofton for the most receiving yards in Packers’ history (9,666 yards).

Stat of the week No. 3: Tony Gonzalez has surpassed Terrell Owens for 5th most receptions in NFL history. With just 22 catches more, Gonzalez will have the 2nd most receptions in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tom Brady is the only player in NFL history to follow a 500-yard passing performance with a 400-yard game.

Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton is the first QB in history to throw for 400 yards in his first two games and only the sixth QB to have back-to-back 400-yard games.

Bonus Stat of the week: Since realignment in 2002, 29 of 32 teams have made the playoffs. The three teams that have not – Buffalo, Detroit & Houston – are each 2-0.

Brady's amazing start to the 2011 season and other NFL thoughts

(1) The New England Patriots have a 2-0 record this morning thanks primarily to having the best quarterback in the NFL calling the shots. Tom Brady followed up his 517-yard franchise record against the Miami Dolphins with a sparkling 423-yard game against San Diego, in which he only threw nine incompletions and was not intercepted. In the process, he became the first QB in NFL history to follow a 500-yard game with a 400-yard game. After two games, Brady is on pace to shatter the NFL records for yards and touchdown passes in a season. Even more impressive than Brady’s raw production has been his masterful control of the Patriots’ offense. No matter what formation the Patriots’ offense lined up in on Sunday, Brady found success dissecting the San Diego defense. When the Patriots lined up with two or more tight ends, Brady completed nearly 72% of his attempts and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. When New England went with three or more wide receivers, Brady did even better with an 88.9% completion rate and nearly 15 yards per attempt. In addition, he took advantage of the Chargers’ secondary, one of the top defenses against the deep ball in 2010, by completing 10-12 passes that traveled 11 yards or more. San Diego literally had no answers for Brady’s tremendous execution of the offense. The bright side is the Miami Dolphins are no longer the only members of the Tom Brady Torched Us Anonymous therapy group. The results from Sunday had to have looked pretty familiar to week one, when Brady was 10-17 on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air and threw for 416 yards out of the 2+ TE formation. Saying that Brady is in a zone is an insult to zones. Through the first two weeks, Brady is playing at a level that defies explanation. It is unrealistic to think that Brady is going to keep up his current pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez likely to miss the next couple of weeks, but he definitely adding another chapter to his already sterling career.

   Unfortunately, for the Patriots, they might need Brady to maintain his current production because their defense, especially against the pass, looks atrocious. In Week One, they allowed Chad Henne to throw for 416 yards and average 8.5 yards per attempt. For the purpose of comparison, Henne’s yards per attempt average would have been the second best average in the NFL for 2010. I think we can all agree that Henne is an average NFL quarterback at best. For goodness sake, the Dolphins were actively trying to trade for Kyle Orton before the season began, which is as big of an indictment of Henne as you can imagine. Keep in mind that the Dolphins threw for only 170 yards in week two against the Houston Texans. The same Texans team that was the worst pass defense in 2010. Following their awful debut, the New England defense allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 378 yards and average 9.5 yards per attempt. Rivers is obviously an MVP candidate, but you have to be concerned about a defense that is allowing 381 passing yards per game. Surprisingly, San Diego did all this damage without any production from Antonio Gates, who was held without a reception for the first time in 34 games. Rivers consistently found Vincent Jackson (10 receptions), Mike Tolbert (eight catches) and Ryan Mathews (seven catches) to extend drives and keep the pressure on the New England defense. Rivers’ ability to check-down to the running backs and take what the Patriots were giving him allowed the Chargers to convert on 83% of their third down opportunities. The saving grace for New England was the fact that they forced four San Diego turnovers. In addition, they stopped another Chargers’ drive at the one-yard line. San Diego was in Patriots’ territory all day long, but they made too many mistakes to fully capitalize on the porousness of the New England secondary. The Patriots better come up with some answers on defense soon because there will come a game when Brady struggles and the turnover pipeline dries up.

(2) Fans that support perennial losers are part of an informal fraternity, where the anguish is real, but the loyalty is seen as a badge of honor. The feelings that a Detroit Lions’ fan shares with a Buffalo Bills’ fan is a mixture of pain from being kicked in the guts for so long and pride for being able to get off the mat time after time. Long-suffering fans vacillate between a feeling of resignation that it will never be our year and a hopeful feeling that this year will finally bring success. The casual sports fan doesn’t understand why someone would continue to support a losing team year and year, but when the only thing that you know are the Detroit Lions or the Buffalo Bills then there is no other choice.

    In football terms, the Lions have defined another level of losing. They won four NFL championships prior to the Super Bowl era, but they have never even appeared in the Super Bowl. The closest they have ever come was their appearance in the 1991 NFC Championship game. After a fairly successful period in the 1990’s with six playoff appearances, the Lions have not returned to the post-season since 1999. They haven’t won more than seven games since 2000 and they lost all 16 games in 2008, which set a new NFL standard for ineptitude. Despite all of their recent struggles, the Lions were considered by many pundits to be a chic pick to make the playoffs in 2011. After two weeks, it looks like the Lions might just be for real. They beat Tampa Bay on the road to open the season behind 305 yards passing and three touchdowns from Matt Stafford. Any road win is huge in the NFL, but the Lions winning on the road is even more special considering that they once lost 27 consecutive games away from Ford Field. Following the opening win, Detroit completely destroyed the hapless Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener. Stafford had another excellent game and the Lions scored their largest regular season victory in their rather checkered history. The offense has certainly lived up to preseason expectations, but I’m even more impressed by how impressive their defense has played. The Lions forced six turnovers against the Chiefs and held them to only an 18% conversion rate on third down. They were equally impressive against the Buccaneers the week previous holding the Bucs to only 315 total yards and forcing two turnovers. They have defended the run unevenly over the first two weeks, but they definitely look like a unit that is improving and gaining confidence. Keep in mind that Ndamukong Suh hasn’t really got going yet and first round draft pick, Nick Fairley, hasn’t even seen the field. Detroit looks like it finally has the makings to reward their long-suffering fans with a playoff appearance.

(3) I hate to rub salt in the wound, but I have to point out that Matthew Hasselbeck looked awfully impressive against the big, bad Baltimore defense. Behind a stout effort from the Tennessee offensive line, Hasselbeck completed nearly 72% of his attempts on his way to throwing for over 350 yards. Last season, he didn’t throw for over 350 yards until a November 21st match-up against the New Orleans Saints. With one game to go, Hasselbeck has posted the third highest Total QB Rating (92.2) for week two and he has registered above a 90 on the traditional QB rating metric in each of the first two weeks. Amazingly, he has performed at a high level without any running game to speak of. In week one, the Titans averaged 3.3 yards per carry on only 13 rushing attempts. Things didn’t get much better against the Ravens as the Titans saw their average dip to 2.6 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Nevertheless, Hasselbeck is finding success because of the strength of the Titans’ offensive line and the relationship that he is developing with his mercurial wide receiver, Kenny Britt. After two weeks, all of Hasselbeck’s touchdown passes, 43% of his passing yards, 31% of his targets and 27% of completions have gone to Britt. If Tennessee can get Chris Johnson going, then they might have a set of triplets that is unmatched in the AFC South, especially if Arian Foster’s hamstring continues to be an issue. The key for the Titans will be keeping Hasselbeck and Britt healthy because they both have a recent history of injuries. If they can keep holding opponents without a sack like they did to Baltimore, then Matt’s health shouldn’t become an issue.

   Tennessee’s pleasure comes at the expense of every Seattle fan that has watched their offense look less effective than a blind man as an eyewitness. Fair or unfair, each Hasselbeck yard, completion and touchdown will be juxtaposed with the increasingly brutal style of offense being exhibited by the Tarvaris Jackson-led Seahawks. Every Seattle fan will say that it was a mistake to let Hasselbeck go even though they probably supported the decision when it was made. Heck, I was okay with the decision until I realized that Carroll & Schneider were going to hand the reins of the team to Jackson. If they were going to go to battle with a “bridge” quarterback, then Hasselbeck was the best option in my opinion. Honestly, I’m actually glad that Hasselbeck was able to move on to Tennessee. I think that his career would have definitely ended playing behind the sorry unit that Seattle pretends is an offensive line. As a result, I don’t think that Seattle’s early results would have been much different with Matt behind center. The Seahawks still can’t run the football or protect the quarterback, so they might have scored a few more points but they still would have been 0-2.

Week Two Picks

Here are my picks for week two (home teams in CAPS):

BILLS over Raiders
LIONS over Chiefs
Ravens over TITANS
Browns over COLTS
Buccaneers over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Bears
JETS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Cardinals
Packers over PANTHERS
Cowboys over 49ERS
BRONCOS over Bengals
Texans over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS over Chargers
Eagles over FALCONS
STEELERS over Seahawks
GIANTS over Rams

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 9-7

Week One Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Eight combined kick-return touchdowns in Week One are the most combined kick-return touchdowns in a single week in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 2: The Patriots-Dolphins game was the first game in NFL history to feature both a 500-yard passer and 400-yard passer.

Stat of the week No. 3: 7,842 net passing yards were the most for a single week in NFL history. 14 300-yard passers were the most in a single week in NFL history. Four 400-yard passers was also the most in a single week in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tedd Ginn Jr. is the first player to have a kickoff-return touchdown and punt-return touchdown in the same game on opening weekend.

Stat of the week No. 5: Ed Reed now has 12 games with at least two interceptions, the most by any player who began his career in the Super Bowl era.

Cam Newton's dazzling debut and other NFL thoughts

(1)              In most professions, if you get things wrong on a regular basis you better have your resume updated and your lucky interview suit pressed because you are going to need them pretty quickly.  Sadly, the lucky few that get to pontificate on the topic of professional football for a living don’t have anything in their job description that requires them to be correct.  The only thing that the talking heads have to do is sound extremely confident when they are making predictions that will ultimately prove to be wrong.  Week one of the NFL season provided yet another example of why no one should ever listen to the Todd McShays, Mel Kipers or Mike Mayocks of the world, when they say so-and-so is never going to amount to anything and this quarterback will be a franchise centerpiece while another quarterback will hold a clipboard his entire career.  Leading up to the start of the 2011 season, none of the guys mentioned above, or anyone else for that matter, believed that Cam Newton would be successful as a starting quarterback in his rookie year.  There were questions about the circumstances surrounding his transfer from Florida.  There were concerns about his itinerant college career that took him from Florida to Blinn Junior College to Auburn.  Obviously, the alleged pay-for-play scandal that erupted during the 2010 college season did nothing to allay the fears that NFL decision-makers had about Newton.  Making matters worse was the long NFL lockout that forced the cancellation of all the customary offseason training that rookies normally participate in.  Despite all of the negative attention, the Carolina Panthers made Newton the number one overall pick.  In the end, there seemed to be a growing sentiment that the Panthers named Newton the starter only to justify the fact that they picked him number one.  It almost seemed as if the media was waiting for Newton to fail, so that they could collectively scold the Panthers for making such a foolish decision.  The expectations were so low that just surviving his first NFL game would have probably been sufficient. 

Newton didn’t just survive; he blew the doors off of his debut.  He looked poised.  He looked prepared.  When things broke down, he didn’t fall back on his tremendous athletic ability.  He worked through his progressions and bought time when the situation called for it.  The net result was the greatest performance a rookie had ever had in his first NFL game.  In addition, Newton tied the NFL record (422 yards passing) for the most yards passing in a single game in a quarterback’s first season.  Newton flashed a little of his running ability, including bowling over the left side of the Arizona defense to score the first rushing touchdown of his career.  Newton was far from perfect and he benefitted from playing a mediocre defense, but he proved that he has the necessary physical and mental abilities to play the quarterback position at the highest level.  He posted the fifth-highest Total QB Rating and the eighth-highest QB rating of week one, which were both better than the likes of Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, Matt Schaub and others.  I’m sure that Newton enjoyed making a lot of people eat their words about him.  He has gone through a lot of change in a short amount of time, but I think that all of the adjustments have polished his leadership skills and preparation.  I think that the media tends to focus on a few aspects of a player’s background without ever considering that people can change or that there are other interesting things they can focus on.  For a guy like Cam Newton, all of the attention was on the alleged off-field indiscretions.  Rarely did anyone talk about the fact that he had led two different teams to national championships.  The guy might want to become an entertainer and an icon, but I believe he is building credibility with his teammates, which is far more important to him.  He will likely never match the rarified air of his debut for the rest of his rookie season, but he did a lot to start changing the narrative about Cam Newton.

(2)  As usual, the first week of the NFL season provided its share of surprises.  We saw the supposed Super Bowl contender, the Atlanta Falcons, get throttled by the Chicago Bears.  We saw the Kansas City Chiefs continue their uneven preseason with a beat down at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.  We saw Cam Newton and Steve Smith light up the desert sky against Arizona.  Out of all of these examples, the biggest surprise to me was Baltimore’s dominating performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Ravens had been waiting patiently for this opportunity ever since their season-ending loss to Pittsburgh in the 2010 playoffs.  If you remember, Baltimore held a 21-7 halftime lead in that game before losing the game behind a hail of second half turnovers.  The Ravens’ players didn’t want to dwell too much on the revenge angle, but you can bet that they relished their most lopsided win since the series began back in 1996. 

Baltimore controlled this game in nearly every way imaginable.  It all started with the way that the Ravens completed flummoxed their nemesis, Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben came into the game having won seven consecutive starts against Baltimore, but the Ravens were finally able to kill their personal boogeyman.  Led by Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, the Ravens forced Big Ben into five turnovers and sacked him four times.  Overall, they forced a franchise-record seven turnovers.  In addition to the defensive dominance, the Ravens did things on offense that the Steel Curtain hadn’t experienced in quite a while.  Baltimore generated more passing and rushing yards against the Steelers’ vaunted 3-4 base defense than Pittsburgh had allowed in any game during the 2010 season.  Most importantly, the Ravens found great success in the middle of the Steelers defense, which has normally been an unsuccessful tactic.  Last season, Pittsburgh didn’t allow more than 47 yards rushing up the middle in any game.  Baltimore turned the conventional logic on its head as Ray Rice and Ricky Williams combined to run for 88 yards on rushes straight into the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense.   The Ravens hit the Steelers right in the mouth and the Steelers had no response.  This game was supposed to be a knock-down, drag-out street brawl, but instead the Ravens started fast and cruised to an easy victory.  The huge victory clearly establishes Baltimore as the team to beat in the AFC North.  They looked like a team prepared to take control of their destiny.  As for the Steelers, you have to wonder what the heck was their mind state entering this game.  It is inconceivable to me that a team with this much veteran leadership, winning experience and coaching stability could lay such a gigantic egg in a huge divisional match-up.  Fortunately, the Steelers get a soft landing with the unimposing Seattle Seahawks heading to the Steel City in week two, but they have a lot of things to correct.

(3) The new season has already shown that the more things change, the more things stay the same.  Nowhere was this saying better demonstrated than the Sunday night game featuring the Jets vs. the Cowboys.  On the New York side of the ledger, it was another example of the Jets playing just well enough to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.  In the Rex Ryan era, the Jets seem to have a penchant for winning games “ugly”, which simultaneously highlights their inability to play consistent football for an entire game and their ability to make big plays at the most crucial moments.  On Sunday night, the Jets floundered for three quarters, generating only 10 points and 216 total yards.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter, they found themselves trailing by 14 points.  Without batting an eyelash, the Jets once again displayed their mental fortitude and, perhaps, their coaching superiority by scoring 17 unanswered points and sweeping the stunned Cowboys right out of the New Meadowlands.  They started the comeback with an 84-yard drive that culminated in Plaxico Burress’ first touchdown as a Jet.  Following this drive, New York took advantage of some of the worst blocking you will ever see by a punt team, which lead to a blocked punt touchdown return.  In the time it takes for a butterfly to flap its wings, the Jets had erased the 14-point deficit and had Dallas against the ropes.  During and after the lightning quick comeback, the Jets’ Mark Sanchez seemed to be locked in a game of who can lose this game first with Tony Romo.  Sanchez followed a Romo fumble with a fumble of his own.  During the next Jets drive, Sanchez could barely hit the side of a barn with his passes and then took a horrible sack as he held onto to the football for way too long.  This victory was far from pretty but it shows that the Jets have the right combination of moxie, talent and coaching to be contenders in the AFC.

On the other side, Dallas provided more evidence of why I can’t take them seriously as a contender in the NFC.  It seems that every year the media talks itself into the Cowboys being good enough to make a Super Bowl run.  All they have done since winning their last Super Bowl under Barry Switzer has been to flirt with success only to come crashing down to earth at the most inopportune times.  They were once again chic picks to make some noise in the NFC with the return of Romo from injury and the addition of Rob Ryan to handle defensive coordinator duties.  They were given a prime opportunity to start their 2011 campaign with a bang by beating the Jets under the white-hot lights of Sunday Night football.  They dominated the first three quarters of the game and held a 14-point lead with about 14 minutes left in the game.  Nevertheless, they limped away with another humiliating defeat thanks to a key special teams breakdown and one too many brain farts from their franchise quarterback.  The blocked punt that was returned for the tying touchdown was a new addition to the Cowboys’ “Finding Ways to Lose” handbook, but the mistakes from Romo had to have been all too familiar to Dallas fans.  Romo’s night started going south when he made an ill-advised dive for a touchdown, which resulted in a fumble and a recovery by the Jets.  The turnover was especially painful because the Cowboys were in position to score at least three points.  Later in the fourth, Romo threw one of the worst interceptions you will ever see.  Not only did he target the clearly limping Dez Bryant on the play, but he threw into bracket coverage with Darrelle Revis underneath the receiver and the safety over the top.  The interception return by Revis put the Jets in position to kick the game-winning field goal.  Unfortunately, the high-jinks from Romo were not done.  On the second-to-last play of the game, Romo seemed to be unprepared for a shotgun snap, which hit him in the torso and forced him to throw the ball away.  This final indignity was the cherry on top of disgustingly sour sundae for the Cowboys.  The worst part about it was that the loss represented the first time in the franchise’s history that Dallas had lost a game that they had led by 14 or more points in the fourth quarter.  Leave it up to Romo to make history in the wrong way.

Week One Picks

Here are my picks for week one (home teams in CAPS):

PACKERS over Saints
BROWNS over Bengals
BUCCANEERS over Lions
CHIEFS over Bills
Falcons over BEARS
Titans over JAGUARS
Eagles over RAMS
TEXANS over Colts
Steelers over RAVENS
CHARGERS over Vikings
Seahawks over 49ERS
REDSKINS over Giants
CARDINALS over Panthers
JETS over Cowboys
Patriots over DOLPHINS
Raiders over BRONCOS

Last Week: 0-0
Overall: 0-0

2011 NFL Predictions

AFC

AFC East - New England
AFC West - San Diego
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC South - Houston
Wild Card - NY Jets
Wild Card - Baltimore

AFC Champ - San Diego

NFC

NFC East - Philadelphia
NFC West - St. Louis
NFC North - Green Bay
NFC South - New Orleans
Wildcard - Atlanta
Wildcard - Detroit

NFC Champ - New Orleans

Super Bowl - New Orleans over San Diego