Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Brady's amazing start to the 2011 season and other NFL thoughts

(1) The New England Patriots have a 2-0 record this morning thanks primarily to having the best quarterback in the NFL calling the shots. Tom Brady followed up his 517-yard franchise record against the Miami Dolphins with a sparkling 423-yard game against San Diego, in which he only threw nine incompletions and was not intercepted. In the process, he became the first QB in NFL history to follow a 500-yard game with a 400-yard game. After two games, Brady is on pace to shatter the NFL records for yards and touchdown passes in a season. Even more impressive than Brady’s raw production has been his masterful control of the Patriots’ offense. No matter what formation the Patriots’ offense lined up in on Sunday, Brady found success dissecting the San Diego defense. When the Patriots lined up with two or more tight ends, Brady completed nearly 72% of his attempts and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. When New England went with three or more wide receivers, Brady did even better with an 88.9% completion rate and nearly 15 yards per attempt. In addition, he took advantage of the Chargers’ secondary, one of the top defenses against the deep ball in 2010, by completing 10-12 passes that traveled 11 yards or more. San Diego literally had no answers for Brady’s tremendous execution of the offense. The bright side is the Miami Dolphins are no longer the only members of the Tom Brady Torched Us Anonymous therapy group. The results from Sunday had to have looked pretty familiar to week one, when Brady was 10-17 on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air and threw for 416 yards out of the 2+ TE formation. Saying that Brady is in a zone is an insult to zones. Through the first two weeks, Brady is playing at a level that defies explanation. It is unrealistic to think that Brady is going to keep up his current pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez likely to miss the next couple of weeks, but he definitely adding another chapter to his already sterling career.

   Unfortunately, for the Patriots, they might need Brady to maintain his current production because their defense, especially against the pass, looks atrocious. In Week One, they allowed Chad Henne to throw for 416 yards and average 8.5 yards per attempt. For the purpose of comparison, Henne’s yards per attempt average would have been the second best average in the NFL for 2010. I think we can all agree that Henne is an average NFL quarterback at best. For goodness sake, the Dolphins were actively trying to trade for Kyle Orton before the season began, which is as big of an indictment of Henne as you can imagine. Keep in mind that the Dolphins threw for only 170 yards in week two against the Houston Texans. The same Texans team that was the worst pass defense in 2010. Following their awful debut, the New England defense allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 378 yards and average 9.5 yards per attempt. Rivers is obviously an MVP candidate, but you have to be concerned about a defense that is allowing 381 passing yards per game. Surprisingly, San Diego did all this damage without any production from Antonio Gates, who was held without a reception for the first time in 34 games. Rivers consistently found Vincent Jackson (10 receptions), Mike Tolbert (eight catches) and Ryan Mathews (seven catches) to extend drives and keep the pressure on the New England defense. Rivers’ ability to check-down to the running backs and take what the Patriots were giving him allowed the Chargers to convert on 83% of their third down opportunities. The saving grace for New England was the fact that they forced four San Diego turnovers. In addition, they stopped another Chargers’ drive at the one-yard line. San Diego was in Patriots’ territory all day long, but they made too many mistakes to fully capitalize on the porousness of the New England secondary. The Patriots better come up with some answers on defense soon because there will come a game when Brady struggles and the turnover pipeline dries up.

(2) Fans that support perennial losers are part of an informal fraternity, where the anguish is real, but the loyalty is seen as a badge of honor. The feelings that a Detroit Lions’ fan shares with a Buffalo Bills’ fan is a mixture of pain from being kicked in the guts for so long and pride for being able to get off the mat time after time. Long-suffering fans vacillate between a feeling of resignation that it will never be our year and a hopeful feeling that this year will finally bring success. The casual sports fan doesn’t understand why someone would continue to support a losing team year and year, but when the only thing that you know are the Detroit Lions or the Buffalo Bills then there is no other choice.

    In football terms, the Lions have defined another level of losing. They won four NFL championships prior to the Super Bowl era, but they have never even appeared in the Super Bowl. The closest they have ever come was their appearance in the 1991 NFC Championship game. After a fairly successful period in the 1990’s with six playoff appearances, the Lions have not returned to the post-season since 1999. They haven’t won more than seven games since 2000 and they lost all 16 games in 2008, which set a new NFL standard for ineptitude. Despite all of their recent struggles, the Lions were considered by many pundits to be a chic pick to make the playoffs in 2011. After two weeks, it looks like the Lions might just be for real. They beat Tampa Bay on the road to open the season behind 305 yards passing and three touchdowns from Matt Stafford. Any road win is huge in the NFL, but the Lions winning on the road is even more special considering that they once lost 27 consecutive games away from Ford Field. Following the opening win, Detroit completely destroyed the hapless Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener. Stafford had another excellent game and the Lions scored their largest regular season victory in their rather checkered history. The offense has certainly lived up to preseason expectations, but I’m even more impressed by how impressive their defense has played. The Lions forced six turnovers against the Chiefs and held them to only an 18% conversion rate on third down. They were equally impressive against the Buccaneers the week previous holding the Bucs to only 315 total yards and forcing two turnovers. They have defended the run unevenly over the first two weeks, but they definitely look like a unit that is improving and gaining confidence. Keep in mind that Ndamukong Suh hasn’t really got going yet and first round draft pick, Nick Fairley, hasn’t even seen the field. Detroit looks like it finally has the makings to reward their long-suffering fans with a playoff appearance.

(3) I hate to rub salt in the wound, but I have to point out that Matthew Hasselbeck looked awfully impressive against the big, bad Baltimore defense. Behind a stout effort from the Tennessee offensive line, Hasselbeck completed nearly 72% of his attempts on his way to throwing for over 350 yards. Last season, he didn’t throw for over 350 yards until a November 21st match-up against the New Orleans Saints. With one game to go, Hasselbeck has posted the third highest Total QB Rating (92.2) for week two and he has registered above a 90 on the traditional QB rating metric in each of the first two weeks. Amazingly, he has performed at a high level without any running game to speak of. In week one, the Titans averaged 3.3 yards per carry on only 13 rushing attempts. Things didn’t get much better against the Ravens as the Titans saw their average dip to 2.6 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Nevertheless, Hasselbeck is finding success because of the strength of the Titans’ offensive line and the relationship that he is developing with his mercurial wide receiver, Kenny Britt. After two weeks, all of Hasselbeck’s touchdown passes, 43% of his passing yards, 31% of his targets and 27% of completions have gone to Britt. If Tennessee can get Chris Johnson going, then they might have a set of triplets that is unmatched in the AFC South, especially if Arian Foster’s hamstring continues to be an issue. The key for the Titans will be keeping Hasselbeck and Britt healthy because they both have a recent history of injuries. If they can keep holding opponents without a sack like they did to Baltimore, then Matt’s health shouldn’t become an issue.

   Tennessee’s pleasure comes at the expense of every Seattle fan that has watched their offense look less effective than a blind man as an eyewitness. Fair or unfair, each Hasselbeck yard, completion and touchdown will be juxtaposed with the increasingly brutal style of offense being exhibited by the Tarvaris Jackson-led Seahawks. Every Seattle fan will say that it was a mistake to let Hasselbeck go even though they probably supported the decision when it was made. Heck, I was okay with the decision until I realized that Carroll & Schneider were going to hand the reins of the team to Jackson. If they were going to go to battle with a “bridge” quarterback, then Hasselbeck was the best option in my opinion. Honestly, I’m actually glad that Hasselbeck was able to move on to Tennessee. I think that his career would have definitely ended playing behind the sorry unit that Seattle pretends is an offensive line. As a result, I don’t think that Seattle’s early results would have been much different with Matt behind center. The Seahawks still can’t run the football or protect the quarterback, so they might have scored a few more points but they still would have been 0-2.

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