Commish's Game of the Week: Detroit at Dallas

Preview
The game between the Detroit and Dallas is one of the marquee match-ups in week four of the NFL season. These two teams might be worlds apart when it comes to the success they have had as a franchise, but they look like carbon copies this season on the field. First of all, both teams bring top-notch passing attacks to the table led by two quarterbacks that love to throw the ball all over the field. Both teams are in the top five in passing yards per game and the top 10 in yards/attempt, which means they are not only throwing the ball a lot, but they are also throwing the ball with great effect. Secondly, both teams have struggled mightily to run the football despite having young, dynamic running backs and a passing game that should seemingly open up the running lanes. They are both averaging around three yards per carry and 78 yards/game, which puts them among the five or six worst running teams in the NFL. The final similarity takes us to the defensive side of things, where both teams are getting after the quarterback on a regular basis. The Cowboys lead the league with 13 sacks after three games and the Lions are 11th in the league with eight sacks. It is no surprise that they are harassing the quarterback position because they both have elite pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware and Ndamukong Suh. In addition, they both have unheralded guys like Cliff Avril and Anthony Spencer that have been getting the job done in the shadows for the last couple of years.

The big differences between the Lions and Cowboys are found on defense and the turnover differential. The two defenses look a little like polar opposites when you put aside their ability to apply pressure in the pocket. First of all, the Lions look much stingier against the pass after the first few weeks. Detroit is fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and third in the league in passing yards per attempt. The numbers sure look great, but Detroit hasn’t exactly faced the quarterback elite during the first three weeks. The challenge of slowing down Tony Romo, even with the absence of Miles Austin and the thigh injury slowing down Dez Bryant, is going to be slightly more difficult than stopping Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel and the quarterback formerly known as Donovan McNabb. Conversely, the Cowboys have been a little vulnerable as a pass defense. They are currently in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed and yards/attempt, which is disconcerting when you consider that they have faced Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith and Rex Grossman in the first three weeks. Secondly, the Cowboys have been much stouter against the run, allowing just 61 yards per game, while the Lions have allowed 113 yards per game. The Cowboys’ run defense looks for real because they have stymied three teams that appear to have a run-first mentality. Finally, these teams have been very different when it comes to taking care of the ball and taking the ball away from their opponent. The Lions currently lead the NFL with a +6 turnover differential, while the Cowboys have had a bad start to the season with a -2 differential. There can be a certain element of luck with causing turnovers, but a positive turnover ratio can indicate an aggressive defense and an offense that values the football.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Protect the quarterback – Both of these teams have elite pass rushers that can cause havoc in the passing game. The Cowboys lead the league in sacks behind the talents of Ware and Spencer, while the Lions have applied their fair share of pressure, despite the prolonged absence of their number one pick, Nick Fairley. The team that keeps their quarterback the cleanest will be in a great position to win the football game. In my opinion, the advantage goes to Detroit because their key offensive weapons are healthy and they have much more experience on the offensive line.

2. Run the football effectively – As I stated earlier, neither team has been successful running the football this year. In this game, both teams need to find some room on the ground in order to slow the opposing pass rush and take some of the pressure off their respective quarterbacks. The advantage goes to Dallas because I think they have the better running back and they get to attack the Lions’ vulnerable run defense.

3. Take full advantage of red zone opportunities – Despite having similar offensive profiles, the Lions have scored about 10 more points per game than the Cowboys. One of the reasons for the difference is that Dallas has had injuries to all of their key playmakers. The other reason is that Detroit has been more successful scoring touchdowns in the red zone. On the season, the Lions have scored seven points on eight of 13 opportunities. On the other hand, the Cowboys have scored touchdowns on just three out of 10 opportunities. I give the advantage to the Lions because they have one of the best red zone targets in Calvin Johnson and a developing weapon in Brandon Pettigrew.

Prediction
Detroit 27 – Dallas 21