(1) It is commonly said that the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I would like to add another item: declaring the Houston Texans as serious contenders in the NFL. For at least the last three or four years, the media has been obsessed with predicting that the Texans were ready to make their first playoff appearance and/or challenge the elite in the AFC South. Although they have shown glimpses of promise, the Texans have finished outside of the postseason in every year of their existence. This year, the door to the playoffs was kicked off the hinges thanks to the neck injury suffered by Peyton Manning, which forced the Indianapolis Colts to bring the ancient Kerry Collins out of retirement. With the biggest difference-maker in the division on the shelf, the experts were convinced that there was no way that Houston wouldn’t win the AFC South. The Texans still had a dynamic offense led by Matt Schaub and Arian Foster and they had addressed their biggest problem of 2010 by hiring Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator and signing Jonathan Joseph to a free-agent contract. The changes paid dividends early as they crushed the Colts on opening day and handled the Dolphins in week two. After two weeks, the Texans were actually the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL! My computer nearly shut itself down after I finished typing that sentence. Even more impressive, Houston had won both games with nearly no contribution from their All-Pro running back. The stars seemed to be finally aligning for the City of Houston to have a playoff team for the first time since Warren Moon’s last season in 1993.
I’m still confident that the Texans are going to win their first division title, but my vote of confidence is more about the relative weakness of their competition. They have a retiree playing quarterback for one of their opponents and a rookie playing for another. Their stiffest divisional opponent is probably the Titans, but they just lost their best receiver to a season-ending knee injury and their quarterback is one big hit away from the infirmary. If the Texans can’t win this sad-sack division, then they might as well fold up the tents permanently on professional football in Houston. A non-division title this year would be more embarrassing than giving up a 32-point third quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills back in 1992. Unfortunately, I think that the Texans will have reached their ceiling if they do manage to earn a division title. I still don’t believe that this team has the necessary chops to win a playoff game. In order for me to change my mind, they need to win a big game or two, especially on the road. I will give them credit for their huge season-opening win over the Colts last season, but they went into the tank for the rest of the year. This year, they beat the Colts again, but with a guy, whose daily schedule a month ago consisted of 18 holes of golf and the early bird special, playing quarterback. They also beat the Dolphins, but their quarterback is a back-up masquerading as a starter. The Texans’ first real test of the 2011 season was playing the New Orleans Saints on the road. In my opinion, they failed the test miserably. Houston led the Saints 26-17 with 14:54 remaining in the fourth quarter and desperately needed to close the door on New Orleans to show that they were ready to make the next step. Unfortunately, the Saints, led by Drew Brees, blitzed the Texans 23-7 down the stretch and pulled out the hard-fought victory. I know that Brees is an elite quarterback in the NFL, but good teams don’t allow their opponents to score on three consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter on drives that lasted less than two minutes each. Good teams find ways to grind out first downs in the fourth quarter instead of putting their gassed defense back on the field. I don’t think that the Texans are a good team. They are good enough to win a division title, but so were the Seattle Seahawks last year and no one thought they were a quality team. The Texans have a brutal four-game stretch upcoming that gives them an opportunity to start changing the perception that people have about them.
(2) The Oakland Raiders are starting to look like a team that could surprise some folks in the AFC. They are a whisker away from being the only undefeated team in the conference and they seem to be developing a personality that harkens back to the glory days of the franchise. Obviously, the biggest stain on their 2011 resume is blowing a 21-3 halftime lead against the Buffalo Bills in week two. Their second half meltdown speaks to one of my principal concerns about the Raiders: their defense. They allowed the Bills to score 35 points in the second half and allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense including 223 yards on the ground. Actually, Buffalo never had to send their punting unit onto the field in the second half. They scored touchdowns on five straight possessions and each of scoring drives was in excess of 55 yards, including three 80-yard drives. This was a Chernobyl-style implosion by a defense that many observers believed would be much improved, especially across the defensive line. They followed up the devastating loss to the Bills by allowing nearly 450 total yards against the Jets, but I observed two key differences that I thought were positive signs for Oakland. First of all, they played the run much better against the Jets. It is common knowledge that New York wants to play smash-mouth football, but the Raiders were not willing to go along with the plan. They allowed just 100 yards on 25 carries and forced a fumble from Shonn Greene. Secondly, I thought that the Raiders brought a controlled fury that knocked around the Jets pretty good. Their physical play put a hurting on Mark Sanchez and guaranteed that he wouldn’t be enjoying a foot long in the fourth quarter. Sanchez threw for 369 yards, but I believe your chances for victory against the Jets increase when he is asked to carry the load. The Raiders are far from a perfect defense, but they are able to mask some of their deficiencies when they play with the ferocious, hard-hitting style that we saw on Sunday.
I like the Raiders even more because of what I’m seeing from their offense. First of all, they are establishing a reputation for running the ball down their opponents’ throats. Darren McFadden referred to the progression of their ground game as “building a bully.” They want to play offense like they are the biggest, baddest guys on the block. The first three weeks of the season have shown that they are doing a pretty good job of implementing their vision. Through the first three games, Oakland is leading the NFL in rushing and they produced the most rushing yards ever against a Rex Ryan-led Jets team. I believe they have the makings of a running game similar to the Earth, Wind & Fire group from the New York Giants a few years ago. Right now, they are led by the dynamic play-making ability of McFadden, who I believe is developing into the most complete running back in the NFL. He may not be more talented than Adrian Peterson as a pure runner, but his ability to catch the football and pass block makes him a unique package. In addition, they have the bruising running style of Michael Bush to use in short-yardage situations or when the defense has tired of chasing after McFadden. Finally, they have the ability to throw a change-up at the defense with Taiwan Jones’ blazing speed. Once Jones gains a little more experience, I think that the Raiders are going to be nearly unstoppable running the football. Also, I like that Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing the offense. He knows that the Raiders don’t have a lot of experience on the outside, so he’s taking what the defense gives him and allowing the Raiders to rely heavily on their running game. Campbell only threw for 156 yards, but Oakland still scored 34 points and beat a very good conference opponent. In reality, Campbell has had two very mediocre games in his three starts, but the Raiders have won them both. If Oakland can continue to follow their offensive recipe and they get a marginal improvement from their defense, then they are going to give the Chargers a run for their money in the AFC West.
(3) The Philadelphia Eagles are locked in a high risk/high reward situation with Michael Vick. The high risk comes with giving the guy a $100 million contract after he blew every single opportunity that his last $100 million contract afforded him. The Eagles are obviously hoping and praying that Vick has grown up since his titanic failure to live up to all the expectations in Atlanta, but we can’t ignore the fact that he was released from prison about 2.5 years because his personal life was completely out of control. The dogfighting conviction and the prison stint would be big enough issues on their own, but Vick adds an additional layer of extreme risk due to the fragility that he has exhibited in his career. He has played the full 16-game slate just once in his career and he missed four games just last season. If Vick cannot keep his nose clean off the field or his body healthy on the field, then the Eagles’ investment is going to go up in smoke Bernie Madoff-style.
The Eagles are willing to take the risk because they have seen the rewards that Vick’s talent can generate on the field. They saw him eviscerate the Jacksonville Jaguars in week three last year. They saw his pantheon game against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night football. They saw him flip the switch in the second half in a dominating performance against the New York Giants. Despite missing the four games, Vick was still able to lead the Eagles to a division title and a home playoff game. He couldn’t deliver in the playoffs, but he once again demonstrated a peerless level of play-making, which convinced the Eagles to trade away Kevin Kolb in the offseason and push all their chips to the center of the table for Vick. After the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia has received an uneven return on their investment, which is probably putting it mildly. In week one, he lead the team to a victory on the road, but he looked very much like the Atlanta version of Mike Vick. He was erratic throwing the football, but he used his legs to counter-balance his inaccurate passing. Following the shaky debut, Vick has been knocked out of the last two games with injuries. The ironic part is that both injuries occurred while he stood in the pocket, which wasn’t the location that everyone thought he would be hurt. The popular thought was that Vick was sure to be injured as he ran recklessly through the opponent’s secondary on one of his trademark scrambles. The bottom line is that Vick will continue to be injury-prone due to his style of play and his slight frame. If the Eagles want to protect their investment, then they need to spend more time on improving their offensive line rather than complaining about the amount of times that Vick gets hit by opposing defenses. While it may be true that Vick doesn’t get protected like other quarterbacks, it is counterproductive to publicly critique the same people that you are expecting to provide protection. The biggest mistake that the Eagles made was not handing the huge contract to Vick, it was making wholesale changes on the offensive line even though their prized quarterback has a history of injuries. All the talk around their splashy free agent moves glossed over the biggest risk they took going into the season: new faces at four of the five offensive line positions.
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