Stat of the week No. 1: Tom Brady tied Brett Favre for the most career games (8) with 350 yards passing, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Stat of the week No. 2: In the past seven seasons, a team with a losing record after 11 games had made the playoffs (2004 – STL, 2005 – WAS, 2006 – PHI, 2007 – WAS, 2008 – SD, 2009 – NYJ, 2010 – SEA). Six of the seven teams won at least one playoff game.
Stat of the week No. 3: On Monday night, Eli Manning recorded his 7th consecutive season with at least 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
Stat of the week No. 4: Tim Tebow had 22 carries on Sunday, which is the most by an NFL quarterback since the merger.
Stat of the week No. 5: Patrick Peterson tied a single-season record with his fourth punt return touchdown on Sunday. He is the only player to have four punt returns touchdowns of 80+ yards in one season.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The annual Giants collapse and other NFL thoughts
(1) Just like the swallows that return to Capistrano every March to announce the beginning of spring, NFL football fans can set their watches for the annual swoon of the New York Giants, which is starting to take shape in the recent weeks. The Giants always seem to tantalize their fan base with a strong start only to waste the good will as they stumble and bumble to the finish. Their development into the anti-closer started way back in 2006 when they squandered a 6-2 start by losing six of their final eight games. They still managed to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record, but their stay in the post season was short thanks to a 23-20 Wildcard Round loss to the hated Philadelphia Eagles. In 2007, they once again rushed out of the gate with six wins in eight games only to play mediocre football down the stretch. Their season was saved after they went toe-to-toe with the undefeated New England Patriots in Week 17 followed by an unexpected run to the Super Bowl title. The hope in New York was that the run to the championship would set the stage for the Giants to seriously contend for the next three to four years. Instead, the last three seasons have seen New York lose three of their final four games of the 2008 season and go one and done in the playoffs, lose eight of their final 11 games of the 2009 season and miss the playoffs and lose two of their final three games of the 2010 season and miss the playoffs. Despite the horrid finishes to their last five seasons, Tom Coughlin continued to dodge the pink slip mainly due to the Super Bowl title he delivered in 2007. Unfortunately, the string of bad football in November and December is finally going to catch up to Coughlin this year. They once again started the year with a 6-2 record only to find themselves mired in a three game losing streak with the latest setback coming as part of a 42-24 shellacking administered by the New Orleans Saints. As a result, the Giants have given away a commanding lead in the NFC East to the surging Dallas Cowboys and now face the prospect of righting the ship with four games in their final five against teams with winning records, including the 11-0 Green Bay Packers this Sunday. Their only game against a losing team is a home date with the Washington Redskins, who would love nothing better than to be the team that hammers in the final nail to the Giants’ coffin. As a result, the Giants are going to miss the playoffs for the third season in a row and it will finally lead to the dismissal of Coughlin as their head coach. Despite all of the good things that he has done in New York, including the upset of the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, it is unreasonable to believe that he would be able to retain his job when his teams have a history of getting worse as the season progresses.
(2) It is impossible to say for sure, but the Houston Texans have to be one of the most snake-bitten teams in the history of the NFL. They had everything line up perfectly for them to finally win a division title, but the football gods have been doing everything in their power to stop it from happening. The first blow was the slow start to the season for Arian Foster, the NFL’s defending rushing champion, due to a balky hamstring. He has since returned to being one of the best backs in the NFL, but his slow start could have derailed the Texans permanently. It was good that they had a better than decent back-up in Ben Tate, a solid quarterback and an improving defense. Unfortunately, just as Foster was rounding into shape the Texans suffered a second blow with the loss of Mario Williams, who was poised to have a huge season as an outside linebacker/pass rusher in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defensive scheme. As if these injuries weren’t enough, the Texans soon would have to find ways to win games without the services of their all-world wide receiver, Andre Johnson. Johnson would hurt his hamstring and miss several weeks, but Houston kept on ticking thanks to the steady play of Matt Schaub and the potent one-combination of Foster & Tate. Unfortunately, the brutal game of football still hadn’t satisfied its appetite for Houston players and claimed Schaub with the mysterious Lis Franc injury that occurred when a massive defensive lineman fell on his foot during a pile up in the end zone. Despite the catastrophic appearance of the Schaub injury, Houston still felt pretty good about their chances because they had all the confidence in the world in Matt Leinart, who was their back-up. Leinart started his first game since his days with Arizona and didn’t even make it to halftime before fracturing his collarbone, which ended his season before it truly got started. Even though they have had worse luck than a degenerate Las Vegas gambler, the Texans would still be the top seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. It is unfortunate that the playoffs don’t start for another five weeks because Houston has to find a way to stave off the Tennessee Titans and make the post season behind the right arm of rookie T.J. Yates. Even with all the signs pointing to a disastrous finish to an otherwise promising season, it feels like Houston is going to find a way to punch a ticket to their first playoffs in franchise history. Yates may be a slight downgrade from Leinart, but he still has the benefit of playing alongside one of the best supporting casts in the business. Also, let’s not forget that Houston has assembled the best defense in the history of the team. The Williams injury certainly had an impact, but it also opened the door for Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed to showcase what they were capable of doing. Mostly, the Texans still feel like the team to beat in the AFC South because their luck can’t be this bad for much longer. In the end, they won’t be able to hold onto the top seed in the conference, but they will do enough to host their first playoff game in franchise history.
(3) Quick Hits
• Busy day in Jacksonville…they announced the firing of head coach Jack Del Rio, a three-year contract extension for G.M. Gene Smith and the sale of the team to Pakistan-born entrepreneur Shahid Khan. The firing of Del Rio seemed inevitable ever since his curious decision to cut David Garrard the week before the Jags’ first game and cast his lost with Luke McCown and subsequently Blaine Gabbert. It is interesting that the coach gets fired, but the G.M. gets a contract extension. Khan immigrated to the United States at the age of 16 and graduated from the University of Illinois in 1971. A huge part of his Americanization was immersing himself in Illini football. Although current Jacksonville owner, Wayne Weaver, has stated that he believes Khan will keep the team in the Florida panhandle, there is no specific provision in the sale agreement that requires Khan to do it.
• Ndamukong Suh appears to have some behavioral issues that need to be addressed with the help of a professional. It is one thing to play football with a nasty streak from whistle to whistle. It is a completely different thing to intentionally inflict pain on another player outside of the rules of the game. When the only thing that Suh was hurting was his pocketbook it was okay to put up with his antics, but now that his actions have cost him two football games he needs to get the help that he needs.
• The first sacrificial lamb of the Indianapolis Colts’ inexorable march to 0-16 is defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He may have deserved the hatchet job, but he won’t be the only person that loses his job as a result of this horrible season. It is likely that Jim Caldwell will lose his job as well and the stench of a defeated season will attach itself to all of the players in the locker room, especially Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims, who both endured the Detroit Lions’ 0-16 season.
• The Eagles and the Chargers are fighting tooth and nail for the title of the most disappointing team of the 2011 season. At the beginning of the year, both teams were expected to win their respective divisions and make deep runs in the playoffs. The Eagles have been buried by a combination of injuries, poor coaching and disgruntled players. The Chargers have had their fair share of injuries as well, but their struggles start and end with the poor play of Philip Rivers, who is on pace to throw for his fewest touchdowns since 2007, throw the most interceptions of his career and post his lowest QB rating since becoming a full-time starter at the beginning of the 2006 season.
• The Raiders are showing that they have what it takes to win the AFC West. Since their bye week, Oakland has won three of four games and holds a slim one-game lead over Denver. The challenge for the Raiders is two-fold: (1) they have to conquer a difficult schedule that includes back-to-back road games the next two weeks against the better-than-their-record-shows Miami Dolphins and the undefeated defending champs and (2) they have to hold off the cosmic force known as Tim Tebow.
(2) It is impossible to say for sure, but the Houston Texans have to be one of the most snake-bitten teams in the history of the NFL. They had everything line up perfectly for them to finally win a division title, but the football gods have been doing everything in their power to stop it from happening. The first blow was the slow start to the season for Arian Foster, the NFL’s defending rushing champion, due to a balky hamstring. He has since returned to being one of the best backs in the NFL, but his slow start could have derailed the Texans permanently. It was good that they had a better than decent back-up in Ben Tate, a solid quarterback and an improving defense. Unfortunately, just as Foster was rounding into shape the Texans suffered a second blow with the loss of Mario Williams, who was poised to have a huge season as an outside linebacker/pass rusher in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defensive scheme. As if these injuries weren’t enough, the Texans soon would have to find ways to win games without the services of their all-world wide receiver, Andre Johnson. Johnson would hurt his hamstring and miss several weeks, but Houston kept on ticking thanks to the steady play of Matt Schaub and the potent one-combination of Foster & Tate. Unfortunately, the brutal game of football still hadn’t satisfied its appetite for Houston players and claimed Schaub with the mysterious Lis Franc injury that occurred when a massive defensive lineman fell on his foot during a pile up in the end zone. Despite the catastrophic appearance of the Schaub injury, Houston still felt pretty good about their chances because they had all the confidence in the world in Matt Leinart, who was their back-up. Leinart started his first game since his days with Arizona and didn’t even make it to halftime before fracturing his collarbone, which ended his season before it truly got started. Even though they have had worse luck than a degenerate Las Vegas gambler, the Texans would still be the top seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. It is unfortunate that the playoffs don’t start for another five weeks because Houston has to find a way to stave off the Tennessee Titans and make the post season behind the right arm of rookie T.J. Yates. Even with all the signs pointing to a disastrous finish to an otherwise promising season, it feels like Houston is going to find a way to punch a ticket to their first playoffs in franchise history. Yates may be a slight downgrade from Leinart, but he still has the benefit of playing alongside one of the best supporting casts in the business. Also, let’s not forget that Houston has assembled the best defense in the history of the team. The Williams injury certainly had an impact, but it also opened the door for Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed to showcase what they were capable of doing. Mostly, the Texans still feel like the team to beat in the AFC South because their luck can’t be this bad for much longer. In the end, they won’t be able to hold onto the top seed in the conference, but they will do enough to host their first playoff game in franchise history.
(3) Quick Hits
• Busy day in Jacksonville…they announced the firing of head coach Jack Del Rio, a three-year contract extension for G.M. Gene Smith and the sale of the team to Pakistan-born entrepreneur Shahid Khan. The firing of Del Rio seemed inevitable ever since his curious decision to cut David Garrard the week before the Jags’ first game and cast his lost with Luke McCown and subsequently Blaine Gabbert. It is interesting that the coach gets fired, but the G.M. gets a contract extension. Khan immigrated to the United States at the age of 16 and graduated from the University of Illinois in 1971. A huge part of his Americanization was immersing himself in Illini football. Although current Jacksonville owner, Wayne Weaver, has stated that he believes Khan will keep the team in the Florida panhandle, there is no specific provision in the sale agreement that requires Khan to do it.
• Ndamukong Suh appears to have some behavioral issues that need to be addressed with the help of a professional. It is one thing to play football with a nasty streak from whistle to whistle. It is a completely different thing to intentionally inflict pain on another player outside of the rules of the game. When the only thing that Suh was hurting was his pocketbook it was okay to put up with his antics, but now that his actions have cost him two football games he needs to get the help that he needs.
• The first sacrificial lamb of the Indianapolis Colts’ inexorable march to 0-16 is defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He may have deserved the hatchet job, but he won’t be the only person that loses his job as a result of this horrible season. It is likely that Jim Caldwell will lose his job as well and the stench of a defeated season will attach itself to all of the players in the locker room, especially Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims, who both endured the Detroit Lions’ 0-16 season.
• The Eagles and the Chargers are fighting tooth and nail for the title of the most disappointing team of the 2011 season. At the beginning of the year, both teams were expected to win their respective divisions and make deep runs in the playoffs. The Eagles have been buried by a combination of injuries, poor coaching and disgruntled players. The Chargers have had their fair share of injuries as well, but their struggles start and end with the poor play of Philip Rivers, who is on pace to throw for his fewest touchdowns since 2007, throw the most interceptions of his career and post his lowest QB rating since becoming a full-time starter at the beginning of the 2006 season.
• The Raiders are showing that they have what it takes to win the AFC West. Since their bye week, Oakland has won three of four games and holds a slim one-game lead over Denver. The challenge for the Raiders is two-fold: (1) they have to conquer a difficult schedule that includes back-to-back road games the next two weeks against the better-than-their-record-shows Miami Dolphins and the undefeated defending champs and (2) they have to hold off the cosmic force known as Tim Tebow.
Week 12 Picks
Here are my picks for week 12 (home teams in CAPS):
Packers over LIONS
COWBOYS over Dolphins
RAVENS over 49ers
SEAHAWKS over Redskins
FALCONS over Vikings
BENGALS over Browns
Buccaneers over TITANS
Panthers over COLTS
RAMS over Cardinals
JETS over Bills
JAGUARS over Texans
RAIDERS over Bears
Patriots over EAGLES
Broncos over CHARGERS
Steelers over CHIEFS
SAINTS over Giants
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 100-60
Packers over LIONS
COWBOYS over Dolphins
RAVENS over 49ers
SEAHAWKS over Redskins
FALCONS over Vikings
BENGALS over Browns
Buccaneers over TITANS
Panthers over COLTS
RAMS over Cardinals
JETS over Bills
JAGUARS over Texans
RAIDERS over Bears
Patriots over EAGLES
Broncos over CHARGERS
Steelers over CHIEFS
SAINTS over Giants
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 100-60
Week 11 Picks
Here are my picks for week 11 (home teams in CAPS):
Jets over BRONCOS
RAMS over Seahawks
Jaguars over BROWNS
LIONS over Panthers
PACKERS over Buccaneers
DOLPHINS over Bills
Raiders over VIKINGS
Cowboys over REDSKINS
RAVENS over Bengals
49ERS over Cardinals
Titans over FALCONS
BEARS over Chargers
GIANTS over Eagles
PATRIOTS over Chiefs
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 91-55
Jets over BRONCOS
RAMS over Seahawks
Jaguars over BROWNS
LIONS over Panthers
PACKERS over Buccaneers
DOLPHINS over Bills
Raiders over VIKINGS
Cowboys over REDSKINS
RAVENS over Bengals
49ERS over Cardinals
Titans over FALCONS
BEARS over Chargers
GIANTS over Eagles
PATRIOTS over Chiefs
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 91-55
Monday, November 14, 2011
Week 10 Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Michael Bush’s 242 yards from scrimmage was the fourth highest in Raiders history, but the most yards from scrimmage since the AFL-NFL merger.
Stat of the week No. 2: LeSean McCoy became the fourth player since 1960 to score a touchdown in each of his team’s first nine games joining George Rogers (1986), OJ Simpson (1975) and Lenny Moore (1964).
Stat of the week No. 3: Tim Tebow is the fifth quarterback since 1980 to throw all of his team’s passes, complete two or fewer and win (Derek Anderson – 2009, Akili Smith – 2000, Steve Grogan – 1982, Ken Stabler – 1981).
Stat of the week No. 4: The Indianapolis Colts became the eighth team in the last 25 years to start a season 0-10.
Stat of the week No. 5: Drew Brees has completed at least 20 passes in 30 consecutive games.
Stat of the week No. 2: LeSean McCoy became the fourth player since 1960 to score a touchdown in each of his team’s first nine games joining George Rogers (1986), OJ Simpson (1975) and Lenny Moore (1964).
Stat of the week No. 3: Tim Tebow is the fifth quarterback since 1980 to throw all of his team’s passes, complete two or fewer and win (Derek Anderson – 2009, Akili Smith – 2000, Steve Grogan – 1982, Ken Stabler – 1981).
Stat of the week No. 4: The Indianapolis Colts became the eighth team in the last 25 years to start a season 0-10.
Stat of the week No. 5: Drew Brees has completed at least 20 passes in 30 consecutive games.
The most mediocre division in football and other NFL thoughts
(1) In the parity-filled NFL, the title of the most mediocre division has been passed from the NFC West to the AFC West. The latter is the only division in football that doesn’t feature a team with a record better than 5-4 or worse than 4-5. Another sign of the rampant mediocrity in the AFC West is that each team has a 2-2 record against the other three teams in the division. The latest stupefying result in a season filled with stupefying results was Denver’s road victory over Kansas City despite completing only two passes the entire game. The Broncos are the hottest team in the division having won three out of their last four games behind a Tim Tebow-led option attack that has never been seen in the NFL. Next up, the Broncos draw the demoralized New York Jets, who were just destroyed by New England at home and now have to cross the country for a Thursday Night match-up with the Den-veer attack. Even without the services of Knowshon Moreno and perhaps Willis McGahee, the Broncos should be able to keep the good times rolling against the Jets, but, at some point, they are going to have to be able to win a game on the strength of Tebow’s arm. Nevertheless, the Tebow kool-aid drinkers have to be daydreaming about the Broncos sneaking away with the division title.
The team best positioned to hold off the Broncos is the current leader in the division, the Oakland Raiders. After back-to-back horrible efforts against Kansas City and Denver, the Raiders righted the ship behind a solid road victory against the Chargers. The strength of the Raiders is a brutal running game, which should only improve with the return of Darren McFadden from injury. In his absence, the Raiders’ depth has been tested, but it is clear that they are in good shape with or without McFadden thanks to the presence of Michael Bush. The other encouraging sign for Oakland was the breakout game from Carson Palmer on Thursday night. After throwing six interceptions in his first two appearances as a Raider, Palmer played a masterful game in San Diego with 299 yards passing on only 14 completions. Most importantly, the Raiders rediscovered the downfield passing game, at least for one night, which has been the trademark of their offense for the entire Al Davis era. Against the Chargers, Palmer completed five passes to his wide receivers/tight ends of 24 yards or more and had a 55-yard completion to Bush. If Palmer finds a way to play at this level consistently, then the costly trade that brought him over from Cincinnati won’t be seen as so one-sided.
The other two teams in the AFC West seem to be complete disasters right now. The Chargers continue to be plagued by an undiagnosed malady and the Chiefs just learned that they likely have lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the year. As a result, unless Philip Rivers regains his mojo or Tyler Palko plays like the second coming of Tom Brady, the division is going to come down to a fight between Denver and Oakland. The Raiders have a slightly more difficult schedule down the stretch, but they will still win the division because they are getting healthier while Denver is not and they have the better quarterback of the two teams.
(2) When the times are rough in NFL cities, fans have to hunt for small signs of progress that will give them hope for the future. In some places, like Carolina and Jacksonville, the hope is that the lumps that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are taking this year will pay dividends in the near future in the form of more victories. In other places, like Seattle, fans attach themselves to the exciting, young talent on their rosters and hope that a small tweak here and there will change the fortunes of the franchise. Even fans of a team like Indianapolis that seemingly has no hope can look forward to the selection of Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft. Fans all over the NFL will play these mental tricks in order to convince themselves that their team will be the next one that goes from the outhouse to the penthouse. However, there is one NFL locale where hope is so bereft that it is unclear what the fan base has to look forward to in the coming years. This locale is Washington, D.C., where the Redskins have made no more progress in year two of the Mike Shanahan regime than they made in year two of the three previous regimes. The problems in Washington start and end with their disastrous situation at the quarterback position. From the very beginning, Shanahan has bungled the management of the most important position in football starting with jettisoning Jason Campbell to Oakland continuing with the ill-fated trade for Donovan McNabb and the unconscionable decision to go to war with a pu-pu platter of quarterbacks this season. The current melodrama involving John Beck and Rex Grossman highlights two gigantic pockmarks on Shanahan’s resume: (1) he has never developed quarterback into a credible starter and (2) he has never won anything of significance without John Elway. The closest he came on the first point was turning the quarterback position over to Brian Griese following Elway’s retirement, but Griese never started a full 16-game slate in the NFL and his career can be best described as being one of a journeyman’s. On the latter point, Shanahan is barely a .500 coach in the years that Elway was not his quarterback. Also, Shanny has exactly one playoff win since Elway retired 12 years ago. Without the good fortune of having one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks fall into his lap, it is likely that Shanahan would have been exposed as a mediocre coach in the late 90’s and he would never have been in the discussion to be the Redskins’ head coach. Unfortunately, for Skins’ fans, Shanahan is their coach and he isn’t going anywhere in the short-term due to the huge financial ramifications of sending him packing. As a result, Washington fans have to hope that one of the top quarterback prospects is available when they draft and they need to trust that Shanahan will identify the right player for the job. Regardless, the Skins are likely heading for another losing season in 2012 as they groom a rookie quarterback, which means that the pessimism currently hanging over the franchise will linger like stink on a pig.
(3) Quick Hits
• It’s a two-horse race in the NFC East between the Giants and the Cowboys. Count on Dallas being 8-4, riding a five-game winning streak, when they face New York on December 11th. As the Cowboys get more familiar playing Rob Ryan’s schemes, their defense will lead the way to a division title.
• The Chicago Bears are playing better football than any team not based in Green Bay. They have the best running back in football, the best returner in football, a solid defense and an improving offensive line. They have to overcome a key offensive line injury, but they are the current leaders for one of the two wild card spots in the NFC.
• The stat-heads and the academics might disagree, but Mike Smith made a bad choice to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory. It didn’t make sense to take the chance when failing to gain the necessary yardage was basically guaranteeing a loss. Bill Belichick was excoriated for taking a similar chance two years ago and Smith deserves the same critique.
• Game, set & match to the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Patriots are far from perfect, but they are still the class of the AFC East. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, they will win the division and host a playoff game. The Matt Schaub injury has just opened up a huge opportunity for them to snatch one of the two AFC byes.
• The Baltimore Ravens are the most schizophrenic team in the NFL. They beat the Steelers twice, but lose to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks. The loss to Seattle has just handed the inside track to the division title back to the Steelers.
• The Schaub injury is going to be a huge test for the Texans. Before news of the injury hit the airwaves, some were arguing that Houston was the best team in the AFC. Now, they have to hand the keys to the offense to Matt Leinart and cross their fingers. You can hear the hooting and hollering in Tennessee from coast to coast.
The team best positioned to hold off the Broncos is the current leader in the division, the Oakland Raiders. After back-to-back horrible efforts against Kansas City and Denver, the Raiders righted the ship behind a solid road victory against the Chargers. The strength of the Raiders is a brutal running game, which should only improve with the return of Darren McFadden from injury. In his absence, the Raiders’ depth has been tested, but it is clear that they are in good shape with or without McFadden thanks to the presence of Michael Bush. The other encouraging sign for Oakland was the breakout game from Carson Palmer on Thursday night. After throwing six interceptions in his first two appearances as a Raider, Palmer played a masterful game in San Diego with 299 yards passing on only 14 completions. Most importantly, the Raiders rediscovered the downfield passing game, at least for one night, which has been the trademark of their offense for the entire Al Davis era. Against the Chargers, Palmer completed five passes to his wide receivers/tight ends of 24 yards or more and had a 55-yard completion to Bush. If Palmer finds a way to play at this level consistently, then the costly trade that brought him over from Cincinnati won’t be seen as so one-sided.
The other two teams in the AFC West seem to be complete disasters right now. The Chargers continue to be plagued by an undiagnosed malady and the Chiefs just learned that they likely have lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the year. As a result, unless Philip Rivers regains his mojo or Tyler Palko plays like the second coming of Tom Brady, the division is going to come down to a fight between Denver and Oakland. The Raiders have a slightly more difficult schedule down the stretch, but they will still win the division because they are getting healthier while Denver is not and they have the better quarterback of the two teams.
(2) When the times are rough in NFL cities, fans have to hunt for small signs of progress that will give them hope for the future. In some places, like Carolina and Jacksonville, the hope is that the lumps that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are taking this year will pay dividends in the near future in the form of more victories. In other places, like Seattle, fans attach themselves to the exciting, young talent on their rosters and hope that a small tweak here and there will change the fortunes of the franchise. Even fans of a team like Indianapolis that seemingly has no hope can look forward to the selection of Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft. Fans all over the NFL will play these mental tricks in order to convince themselves that their team will be the next one that goes from the outhouse to the penthouse. However, there is one NFL locale where hope is so bereft that it is unclear what the fan base has to look forward to in the coming years. This locale is Washington, D.C., where the Redskins have made no more progress in year two of the Mike Shanahan regime than they made in year two of the three previous regimes. The problems in Washington start and end with their disastrous situation at the quarterback position. From the very beginning, Shanahan has bungled the management of the most important position in football starting with jettisoning Jason Campbell to Oakland continuing with the ill-fated trade for Donovan McNabb and the unconscionable decision to go to war with a pu-pu platter of quarterbacks this season. The current melodrama involving John Beck and Rex Grossman highlights two gigantic pockmarks on Shanahan’s resume: (1) he has never developed quarterback into a credible starter and (2) he has never won anything of significance without John Elway. The closest he came on the first point was turning the quarterback position over to Brian Griese following Elway’s retirement, but Griese never started a full 16-game slate in the NFL and his career can be best described as being one of a journeyman’s. On the latter point, Shanahan is barely a .500 coach in the years that Elway was not his quarterback. Also, Shanny has exactly one playoff win since Elway retired 12 years ago. Without the good fortune of having one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks fall into his lap, it is likely that Shanahan would have been exposed as a mediocre coach in the late 90’s and he would never have been in the discussion to be the Redskins’ head coach. Unfortunately, for Skins’ fans, Shanahan is their coach and he isn’t going anywhere in the short-term due to the huge financial ramifications of sending him packing. As a result, Washington fans have to hope that one of the top quarterback prospects is available when they draft and they need to trust that Shanahan will identify the right player for the job. Regardless, the Skins are likely heading for another losing season in 2012 as they groom a rookie quarterback, which means that the pessimism currently hanging over the franchise will linger like stink on a pig.
(3) Quick Hits
• It’s a two-horse race in the NFC East between the Giants and the Cowboys. Count on Dallas being 8-4, riding a five-game winning streak, when they face New York on December 11th. As the Cowboys get more familiar playing Rob Ryan’s schemes, their defense will lead the way to a division title.
• The Chicago Bears are playing better football than any team not based in Green Bay. They have the best running back in football, the best returner in football, a solid defense and an improving offensive line. They have to overcome a key offensive line injury, but they are the current leaders for one of the two wild card spots in the NFC.
• The stat-heads and the academics might disagree, but Mike Smith made a bad choice to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory. It didn’t make sense to take the chance when failing to gain the necessary yardage was basically guaranteeing a loss. Bill Belichick was excoriated for taking a similar chance two years ago and Smith deserves the same critique.
• Game, set & match to the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Patriots are far from perfect, but they are still the class of the AFC East. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, they will win the division and host a playoff game. The Matt Schaub injury has just opened up a huge opportunity for them to snatch one of the two AFC byes.
• The Baltimore Ravens are the most schizophrenic team in the NFL. They beat the Steelers twice, but lose to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks. The loss to Seattle has just handed the inside track to the division title back to the Steelers.
• The Schaub injury is going to be a huge test for the Texans. Before news of the injury hit the airwaves, some were arguing that Houston was the best team in the AFC. Now, they have to hand the keys to the offense to Matt Leinart and cross their fingers. You can hear the hooting and hollering in Tennessee from coast to coast.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Week 10 Picks
Here are my picks for week 10 (home teams in CAPS):
CHARGERS over Raiders
FALCONS over Saints
BENGALS over Steelers
Rams over BROWNS
COWBOYS over Bills
Jaguars over COLTS
Broncos over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS over Redskins
EAGLES over Cardinals
Texans over BUCCANEERS
PANTHERS over Titans
Lions over BEARS
Giants over 49ERS
JETS over Patriots
PACKERS over Vikings
Ravens over SEAHAWKS
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 84-46
CHARGERS over Raiders
FALCONS over Saints
BENGALS over Steelers
Rams over BROWNS
COWBOYS over Bills
Jaguars over COLTS
Broncos over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS over Redskins
EAGLES over Cardinals
Texans over BUCCANEERS
PANTHERS over Titans
Lions over BEARS
Giants over 49ERS
JETS over Patriots
PACKERS over Vikings
Ravens over SEAHAWKS
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 84-46
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Week Nine Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: The St. Louis Rams had the first four-point quarter in the 92-year history of the NFL.
Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady suffered his first regular season home loss since November 12, 2006 against the N.Y. Jets.
Stat of the week No. 3: Green Bay scored at least 28 points in the first half for the third time this year, which matches the total of the other 31 teams combined.
Stat of the week No. 4: Tim Tebow is the first player with 100 yards rushing, two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in a single game since Mike Vick in November 2004.
Stat of the week No. 5: Houston joined San Francisco, Detroit, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Carolina to become the sixth team to match or exceed its 2010 win total, which is tied for the 2nd-highest total through week nine since 1990.
Bonus Stat of the week: After 24 games, the Redskins are 9-15 under Mike Shanahan. They were 10-14 under Jim Zorn, 11-13 under Joe Gibbs and 10-14 under Steve Spurrier.
Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady suffered his first regular season home loss since November 12, 2006 against the N.Y. Jets.
Stat of the week No. 3: Green Bay scored at least 28 points in the first half for the third time this year, which matches the total of the other 31 teams combined.
Stat of the week No. 4: Tim Tebow is the first player with 100 yards rushing, two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in a single game since Mike Vick in November 2004.
Stat of the week No. 5: Houston joined San Francisco, Detroit, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Carolina to become the sixth team to match or exceed its 2010 win total, which is tied for the 2nd-highest total through week nine since 1990.
Bonus Stat of the week: After 24 games, the Redskins are 9-15 under Mike Shanahan. They were 10-14 under Jim Zorn, 11-13 under Joe Gibbs and 10-14 under Steve Spurrier.
The curious case of Joe Flacco and other NFL thoughts
(1) In this day and age of short attention spans, it seems like it is much easier to go from a downward trend to an upward one very quickly. Nowhere is this statement more true than the National Football League, where yesterday’s worst team in the league is today’s Kansas City Chiefs riding a four-game winning streak back into the middle of a division race. The cult of ‘any given Sunday’ and ‘what have you done for me lately’ that has prospered in the NFL over the last 20 years has created an environment where individual teams and players are exalted one week only to be torn down the next. This phenomenon has only been exaggerated by a 24-hour media cycle that is desperate to one-up each other with better analysis, more breaking news and bolder statements about the major sports. One of the more recent examples of popular opinion changing faster than it takes to tweet what you at for lunch is the curious case of Joe Flacco. After a generally underwhelming beginning to his fourth NFL season, including two attempts to set back the position of quarterback to the days when the forward pass was illegal, there were red flags being raised all around Flacco. Why was he seemingly regressing in his fourth season? Why was he barely completing 50% of his attempts? Was he the right quarterback to take the Ravens to the next level? Anyone that witnessed Flacco playing against the Jets or the Jaguars or against the Cardinals in the first half would have thought that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, were being sabotaged by his inability to hit the side of a barn with the football. Sure this looked like the same guy that had led Baltimore to three road playoff victories in his first three seasons, but he definitely was not playing like the same guy. Flacco was looking like one of those athletes that had completely lost his mojo.
Fast forward to today and the public dialog about Flacco has undergone a complete 180 degree shift. Gone were the questions about his ability to play consistently from week-to-week. The memories of Flacco’s horrific performances against New York and Jacksonville had been swept away by a collective case of Alzheimer’s caused by the big victory over Pittsburgh. If you allowed Ray Rice to tell the tale, he would have you believe that the guys in the Baltimore locker room have believed in Flacco the whole time. Rice’s sentiment was supported by offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who stated after the game that he doesn’t “get all the stuff everybody talks about Joe” and that he’s been “fortunate to be around a lot of really good ones” and that Joe is a “great one.” I know that hyperbole is common in sports, but I don’t believe for one minute that the Ravens’ locker room has been steadfast in its confidence in Flacco nor do I believe that Flacco is anywhere close to being a great quarterback. However, the one thing that Cam, Ray and I can all agree on is that Flacco produced the defining moment of his career when he engineered the game-winning 92-yard drive on Sunday night. This moment was so huge for him because he succeeded despite the fact that his teammates, especially Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, appeared to have wanted no part of making a big play on that last drive. There have been a lot of quarterbacks through the years that look good when everything around them is falling into place. The mark of the truly great quarterbacks is when they show the ability to overcome obstacles and find ways to win games on a regular basis. As a result, I’m nowhere close to being interested in crowning Joe Flacco as the greatest thing since Joe Montana. He needs to demonstrate that he is capable of raising his level of play on a weekly basis rather than alternating one great game with a game where he doesn’t complete a pass for the balance of two quarters.
(2) I am on the record as saying that I believed the New York Giants would not stay in first place in the NFC East for long because they lacked a marquee victory on their resume. In addition, they have the stain of losing to the Seattle Seahawks at home and they were extremely fortunate to beat Arizona and Miami. They had the look of a team that was merely keeping the seat warm for the inevitable rise of the Philadelphia Eagles. Just like the narrative has quickly changed about Joe Flacco, the Giants’ road victory over the New England Patriots has the football world viewing New York through a different prism. This is what happens when you beat Tom Brady at home during the regular season for the first time in five years. This is what happens when the manner in which the Giants won the game had people reminiscing about the fantastic finish to Super Bowl XLII. Is it possible that the Giants have assumed the title of the second-best team in the NFC? You can certainly question the quality of some of their victories, but don’t good teams find ways to win no matter the aesthetics. It shouldn’t matter that they had the football gods on their side against the Cardinals or that they had to scramble in the second half to defeat the Dolphins. We should only care about the results. Although they have six victories, I can’t shake the fact that they have the most brutal schedule in the NFL over the next eight weeks. If they had a few more convincing wins during the first half of the season, then I would be better prepared to hand them the division crown. Unfortunately, I don’t see more than four wins down the stretch against a schedule that includes San Francisco (road), Philadelphia (home), New Orleans (road), Green Bay (home), Dallas (road & home), Washington (home) and New York. If we just look at the schedule, I’m starting to lean towards the Dallas Cowboys as the team to beat in the NFC East. I would not be surprised at all if they are riding a five-game winning streak when they host the Giants on Sunday Night Football on December 11th. The Eagles are still in the mix because of the talent on their roster, but they missed a golden opportunity to keep pace with the leaders in the division by losing to Chicago. Ultimately, I think that the NFC East is going to provide some of the most compelling football down the stretch.
(3) Quick Hits
• There figures to be about ½ dozen teams that will be in the market for a quarterback in the first two rounds of the 2012 NFL draft. One of the teams that had been hoping that they wouldn’t be in this market are the Cleveland Browns, who have to be losing faith in Colt McCoy as each week passes. Among quarterbacks that have started every game, McCoy has the worst QB rating, worst yards per attempt average and the second worst completion percentage. He doesn’t have great weapons to work with, but he still hasn’t shown that he can be a starting NFL quarterback.
• Devin Hester better keep returning kicks for touchdowns because young Patrick Peterson appears to have the goods to one day be mentioned along with the greatest returners in NFL history. He is already the first player in NFL history to have three punt returns for touchdowns in his first eight games. Also, his game-winning return in overtime was just the second punt return to come in overtime in NFL history (Tamarick Vanover to beat San Diego on 10/9/95).
• The New Orleans Saints need to figure out what kind of team they want to be. Are they the world-beaters that killed the Colts and dismantled the Bucs or are they the team that couldn’t get out of their own way against the Rams?
• The Buffalo Bills are picking the wrong time for their offense to go into hibernation as they stare a three-game road trip in the face. The question on the minds of everyone in Western New York is will the loss to the Jets kick start the inevitable swoon.
• Who is beating the Green Bay Packers? The best chance for them to lose would be either on the road at Detroit or at New York. These are the two best candidates because they are on the road and they both feature opposing offenses that should be able to exploit the surprisingly suspect Packers’ defense.
Fast forward to today and the public dialog about Flacco has undergone a complete 180 degree shift. Gone were the questions about his ability to play consistently from week-to-week. The memories of Flacco’s horrific performances against New York and Jacksonville had been swept away by a collective case of Alzheimer’s caused by the big victory over Pittsburgh. If you allowed Ray Rice to tell the tale, he would have you believe that the guys in the Baltimore locker room have believed in Flacco the whole time. Rice’s sentiment was supported by offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who stated after the game that he doesn’t “get all the stuff everybody talks about Joe” and that he’s been “fortunate to be around a lot of really good ones” and that Joe is a “great one.” I know that hyperbole is common in sports, but I don’t believe for one minute that the Ravens’ locker room has been steadfast in its confidence in Flacco nor do I believe that Flacco is anywhere close to being a great quarterback. However, the one thing that Cam, Ray and I can all agree on is that Flacco produced the defining moment of his career when he engineered the game-winning 92-yard drive on Sunday night. This moment was so huge for him because he succeeded despite the fact that his teammates, especially Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, appeared to have wanted no part of making a big play on that last drive. There have been a lot of quarterbacks through the years that look good when everything around them is falling into place. The mark of the truly great quarterbacks is when they show the ability to overcome obstacles and find ways to win games on a regular basis. As a result, I’m nowhere close to being interested in crowning Joe Flacco as the greatest thing since Joe Montana. He needs to demonstrate that he is capable of raising his level of play on a weekly basis rather than alternating one great game with a game where he doesn’t complete a pass for the balance of two quarters.
(2) I am on the record as saying that I believed the New York Giants would not stay in first place in the NFC East for long because they lacked a marquee victory on their resume. In addition, they have the stain of losing to the Seattle Seahawks at home and they were extremely fortunate to beat Arizona and Miami. They had the look of a team that was merely keeping the seat warm for the inevitable rise of the Philadelphia Eagles. Just like the narrative has quickly changed about Joe Flacco, the Giants’ road victory over the New England Patriots has the football world viewing New York through a different prism. This is what happens when you beat Tom Brady at home during the regular season for the first time in five years. This is what happens when the manner in which the Giants won the game had people reminiscing about the fantastic finish to Super Bowl XLII. Is it possible that the Giants have assumed the title of the second-best team in the NFC? You can certainly question the quality of some of their victories, but don’t good teams find ways to win no matter the aesthetics. It shouldn’t matter that they had the football gods on their side against the Cardinals or that they had to scramble in the second half to defeat the Dolphins. We should only care about the results. Although they have six victories, I can’t shake the fact that they have the most brutal schedule in the NFL over the next eight weeks. If they had a few more convincing wins during the first half of the season, then I would be better prepared to hand them the division crown. Unfortunately, I don’t see more than four wins down the stretch against a schedule that includes San Francisco (road), Philadelphia (home), New Orleans (road), Green Bay (home), Dallas (road & home), Washington (home) and New York. If we just look at the schedule, I’m starting to lean towards the Dallas Cowboys as the team to beat in the NFC East. I would not be surprised at all if they are riding a five-game winning streak when they host the Giants on Sunday Night Football on December 11th. The Eagles are still in the mix because of the talent on their roster, but they missed a golden opportunity to keep pace with the leaders in the division by losing to Chicago. Ultimately, I think that the NFC East is going to provide some of the most compelling football down the stretch.
(3) Quick Hits
• There figures to be about ½ dozen teams that will be in the market for a quarterback in the first two rounds of the 2012 NFL draft. One of the teams that had been hoping that they wouldn’t be in this market are the Cleveland Browns, who have to be losing faith in Colt McCoy as each week passes. Among quarterbacks that have started every game, McCoy has the worst QB rating, worst yards per attempt average and the second worst completion percentage. He doesn’t have great weapons to work with, but he still hasn’t shown that he can be a starting NFL quarterback.
• Devin Hester better keep returning kicks for touchdowns because young Patrick Peterson appears to have the goods to one day be mentioned along with the greatest returners in NFL history. He is already the first player in NFL history to have three punt returns for touchdowns in his first eight games. Also, his game-winning return in overtime was just the second punt return to come in overtime in NFL history (Tamarick Vanover to beat San Diego on 10/9/95).
• The New Orleans Saints need to figure out what kind of team they want to be. Are they the world-beaters that killed the Colts and dismantled the Bucs or are they the team that couldn’t get out of their own way against the Rams?
• The Buffalo Bills are picking the wrong time for their offense to go into hibernation as they stare a three-game road trip in the face. The question on the minds of everyone in Western New York is will the loss to the Jets kick start the inevitable swoon.
• Who is beating the Green Bay Packers? The best chance for them to lose would be either on the road at Detroit or at New York. These are the two best candidates because they are on the road and they both feature opposing offenses that should be able to exploit the surprisingly suspect Packers’ defense.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Preview
The NFL’s best rivalry returns this weekend as the Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a renewal of their twice-a-year grudge match. Even though the venom and hatred may have softened between the two sides over the last couple of years, we can still expect a hard-hitting, physical football game. The Ravens are motivated by a desire to take control of the AFC North, while the Steelers are desperate to rinse away the bad taste from their 35-7 loss to Baltimore on opening day. The tale of this game revolves around a match-up between two of the elite defensive units in the NFL and two offenses heading in opposite directions.
The defenses are both playing at a high level. The Baltimore defense is in the top five in nearly every relevant statistical category and they have had to carry the load for their offense for most of this season. Make no mistake about it, without the stellar play from the Ravens’ defense, they would have been blown out against Jacksonville and they would never have had the opportunity to complete the amazing comeback last week against Arizona. The challenge for the Steelers will be to get anything going against a defense that allows only 3.3 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per attempt. Recently, Pittsburgh has been winning games behind the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger, but this match-up looks very tough especially when you consider that Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss the game to attend the funeral of his mother. The absence of Sanders reduces the overall speed of the Pittsburgh receivers as it thrusts Hines Ward and Jerricho Cotchery into more prominent roles. In the end, it may not matter against a defense that allows merely 174 yards passing per game. Let’s not forget that the Ravens get after the quarterback better than any team except for the N.Y. Giants. In the first match-up with Pittsburgh, the Ravens pressured Roethlisberger consistently throughout the entire game, which directly led to four sacks and five Roethlisberger turnovers. The bottom line is that the Ravens defense is playing at the same high level as the Pittsburgh offense, so this will be the match-up that I will be focused on. The one thing that we need to monitor is the health of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who missed his second day of practice on Thursday. If Ngata is unable to play on Sunday, then the pressure will be squarely on Terrance Cody to be the pocket-collapsing presence that Ngata normally provides.
On the other side, the Steelers defense is no slouch either. They are the number one passing defense in the NFL and they find themselves in the top 10 in yards per rush, rushing yards per game and points allowed per game. They seem to have regained their swagger over the last few weeks, which is quite an achievement when you take a look at their injury report. They’ve been missing former defensive player of the year James Harrison for several weeks and they played last week without stalwart James Farrior after he had answered the bell in nearly 100 consecutive games. In addition, perhaps their best player, LaMarr Woodley, suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s game and is likely to be inactive this week. They have had to overcome all of these injuries in addition to losing one of the best two-way defensive linemen in the league, Aaron Smith, earlier in the season. As a result of the laundry list of injuries, the Steelers have struggled against the run at times and they have been a shell of their former selves as it relates to creating turnovers. Ultimately, the lack of star power has forced them to rely more on their scheme rather than their talent, which I believe has allowed them to play a sounder brand of football. Regardless, the Steelers have to be thrilled to be playing the Ravens offense right now. They will be facing a quarterback that has clearly regressed in his fourth year in the league and a running game that has struggled all season to get on track despite the presence of the dynamic Ray Rice. It will be imperative for the Steelers to force Joe Flacco to be the guy that beats them. Based on recent evidence, I don’t believe that Flacco has the necessary confidence in his game right now to beat a good defense with his arm. The best move for the Ravens will be to get the ball to Rice in open space to take advantage of the Steelers’ replacements at linebacker.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Stuff the run – For different reasons, neither team wants to rely too heavily on their quarterbacks. The Steelers don’t want to subject Big Ben to the likely beating he will take if he drops back 50 times like last week and the Ravens are already having nightmares about Flacco being forced to throw the ball 35 or more times. As a result, slowing down Rice and Rashard Mendenhall will be a focus area for both defenses.
2. Convert third down opportunities – Both defenses have been successful getting off the field on third down. However, the Steelers are one of only three teams that convert better than 50% of their third down opportunities. The offense that can stay on the field will be the offense that wins the game.
3. Field goals not touchdowns – Points are going to be at a premium in this game. As a result, each team needs to be stingy in the red zone to ensure that the other side is getting three points or less.
Prediction
Pittsburgh 17 – Baltimore 13
The NFL’s best rivalry returns this weekend as the Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a renewal of their twice-a-year grudge match. Even though the venom and hatred may have softened between the two sides over the last couple of years, we can still expect a hard-hitting, physical football game. The Ravens are motivated by a desire to take control of the AFC North, while the Steelers are desperate to rinse away the bad taste from their 35-7 loss to Baltimore on opening day. The tale of this game revolves around a match-up between two of the elite defensive units in the NFL and two offenses heading in opposite directions.
The defenses are both playing at a high level. The Baltimore defense is in the top five in nearly every relevant statistical category and they have had to carry the load for their offense for most of this season. Make no mistake about it, without the stellar play from the Ravens’ defense, they would have been blown out against Jacksonville and they would never have had the opportunity to complete the amazing comeback last week against Arizona. The challenge for the Steelers will be to get anything going against a defense that allows only 3.3 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per attempt. Recently, Pittsburgh has been winning games behind the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger, but this match-up looks very tough especially when you consider that Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss the game to attend the funeral of his mother. The absence of Sanders reduces the overall speed of the Pittsburgh receivers as it thrusts Hines Ward and Jerricho Cotchery into more prominent roles. In the end, it may not matter against a defense that allows merely 174 yards passing per game. Let’s not forget that the Ravens get after the quarterback better than any team except for the N.Y. Giants. In the first match-up with Pittsburgh, the Ravens pressured Roethlisberger consistently throughout the entire game, which directly led to four sacks and five Roethlisberger turnovers. The bottom line is that the Ravens defense is playing at the same high level as the Pittsburgh offense, so this will be the match-up that I will be focused on. The one thing that we need to monitor is the health of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who missed his second day of practice on Thursday. If Ngata is unable to play on Sunday, then the pressure will be squarely on Terrance Cody to be the pocket-collapsing presence that Ngata normally provides.
On the other side, the Steelers defense is no slouch either. They are the number one passing defense in the NFL and they find themselves in the top 10 in yards per rush, rushing yards per game and points allowed per game. They seem to have regained their swagger over the last few weeks, which is quite an achievement when you take a look at their injury report. They’ve been missing former defensive player of the year James Harrison for several weeks and they played last week without stalwart James Farrior after he had answered the bell in nearly 100 consecutive games. In addition, perhaps their best player, LaMarr Woodley, suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s game and is likely to be inactive this week. They have had to overcome all of these injuries in addition to losing one of the best two-way defensive linemen in the league, Aaron Smith, earlier in the season. As a result of the laundry list of injuries, the Steelers have struggled against the run at times and they have been a shell of their former selves as it relates to creating turnovers. Ultimately, the lack of star power has forced them to rely more on their scheme rather than their talent, which I believe has allowed them to play a sounder brand of football. Regardless, the Steelers have to be thrilled to be playing the Ravens offense right now. They will be facing a quarterback that has clearly regressed in his fourth year in the league and a running game that has struggled all season to get on track despite the presence of the dynamic Ray Rice. It will be imperative for the Steelers to force Joe Flacco to be the guy that beats them. Based on recent evidence, I don’t believe that Flacco has the necessary confidence in his game right now to beat a good defense with his arm. The best move for the Ravens will be to get the ball to Rice in open space to take advantage of the Steelers’ replacements at linebacker.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Stuff the run – For different reasons, neither team wants to rely too heavily on their quarterbacks. The Steelers don’t want to subject Big Ben to the likely beating he will take if he drops back 50 times like last week and the Ravens are already having nightmares about Flacco being forced to throw the ball 35 or more times. As a result, slowing down Rice and Rashard Mendenhall will be a focus area for both defenses.
2. Convert third down opportunities – Both defenses have been successful getting off the field on third down. However, the Steelers are one of only three teams that convert better than 50% of their third down opportunities. The offense that can stay on the field will be the offense that wins the game.
3. Field goals not touchdowns – Points are going to be at a premium in this game. As a result, each team needs to be stingy in the red zone to ensure that the other side is getting three points or less.
Prediction
Pittsburgh 17 – Baltimore 13
Week Nine Picks
Here are my picks for week nine (home teams in CAPS):
BILLS over Jets
Falcons over COLTS
CHIEFS over Dolphins
SAINTS over Buccaneers
49ers over REDSKINS
TEXANS over Browns
Bengals over TITANS
RAIDERS over Broncos
PATRIOTS over Giants
Rams over CARDINALS
Packers over CHARGERS
STEELERS over Ravens
EAGLES over Bears
COWBOYS over Seahawks
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 76-40
BILLS over Jets
Falcons over COLTS
CHIEFS over Dolphins
SAINTS over Buccaneers
49ers over REDSKINS
TEXANS over Browns
Bengals over TITANS
RAIDERS over Broncos
PATRIOTS over Giants
Rams over CARDINALS
Packers over CHARGERS
STEELERS over Ravens
EAGLES over Bears
COWBOYS over Seahawks
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 76-40
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Week Eight Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Steven Jackson (51 TDs) joined Marshall Faulk (58) and Eric Dickerson (56) as the only Rams with 50+ rushing touchdowns.
Stat of the week No. 2: Ben Roethlisberger is the fourth-fastest to reach 75 wins (106 games) among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era trailing Roger Staubach (99 games), Tom Brady (99 games) and Ken Stabler (105 games).
Stat of the week No. 3: Baltimore’s win marks the fifth time this season that a team trailed by at least 20 points and came back to win, which is the most in one season in NFL history.
Stat of the week No. 4: Cam Newton became the fourth rookie quarterback since 1960 with five games of at least 250 yards passing (Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan).
Stat of the week No. 5: Adrian Peterson joined Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only running backs ever with at least 750 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in each of their first five seasons.
Stat of the week No. 2: Ben Roethlisberger is the fourth-fastest to reach 75 wins (106 games) among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era trailing Roger Staubach (99 games), Tom Brady (99 games) and Ken Stabler (105 games).
Stat of the week No. 3: Baltimore’s win marks the fifth time this season that a team trailed by at least 20 points and came back to win, which is the most in one season in NFL history.
Stat of the week No. 4: Cam Newton became the fourth rookie quarterback since 1960 with five games of at least 250 yards passing (Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan).
Stat of the week No. 5: Adrian Peterson joined Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only running backs ever with at least 750 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in each of their first five seasons.
Something in the water in St. Louis and other NFL thoughts
(1) The U.S. Congress should stop wasting their time trying to reduce our gazillion dollar deficit and should immediately create a Blue Ribbon Commission to investigate the suspected performance enhancers that have been added to the water in the St. Louis, Missouri area. I know that we have no proof that the water supply has been tampered with, but how else can we explain the St. Louis Cardinals’ mad dash to and through the playoffs followed by the St. Louis Rams, all but left for dead, dominating the visiting New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Rams, playing without their franchise quarterback, were widely expected to lie down and play dead while the Saints rampaged through another undermanned opponent like they did last Sunday night to Indianapolis. Unfortunately, for New Orleans, the Rams either were rightfully motivated by the visit from the World Series champions or were able to locate their pride that they had somehow lost during the horrific beginning of the 2001 season because they played like their hair was on fire. They hit the Saints in the mouth from the opening whistle until the clock showed all zeroes in the fourth quarter. They limited one of the best running teams in the NFL, albeit one missing a key cog in Mark Ingram, to 56 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. They harassed Drew Brees all game long, which led to two interceptions and eliminated the big play component of New Orleans’ passing game. The result was six sacks and a season-low 6.1 yards per attempt for Brees. With a winnable stretch of games facing the Rams in the next four weeks, this performance might just be the elixir that turns around their season. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that they could be 5-6, riding a five-game winning streak, when they head to San Francisco for a week 13 showdown. Although they have dug themselves a hole too big to escape from, it cannot be underestimated the impact of having a strong finish to the season especially when you consider the expectations that many people had for St. Louis entering the year. Nevertheless, for one week, the Rams played to their potential and got a huge win in the process.
Conversely, this game has to make you wonder about the status of the Saints as one of the elite in the NFL. Are they the team that started the year 4-1 or are they the team that has spit the bit in two of the last three games? I still tend to think that they are the former, but their recent struggles against the Bucs and the Rams have exposed a couple of areas that they need to shore up especially on the road. First of all, Drew Brees has got to a better job of protecting the football. After throwing two picks against St. Louis, Brees has thrown the same number of interceptions in their two recent losses as he has in their other six contests combined. The plot line that Brees is a turnover machine has been downplayed for a variety of reasons in the national media, but he is clearly turning the ball over at a higher rate than some of the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL. For example, he has thrown more than twice the number of interceptions as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers over the last year and a half despite the fact that he plays in a perfect climate eight times a season. It is obvious from these numbers that Brees is taking more chances than some of his elite peers, which has inflated his interception numbers. In order for the Saints to achieve their goals, Brees has to get back to protecting the football like he did back in 2009. During their run to the Super Bowl title, he threw only 11 interceptions in 19 games, but he has already thrown 10 interceptions in eight games this year. Secondly, the Saints have to find a way to stop the run on a consistent basis. They have given up over 100 yards rushing in seven of their eight games and they are currently working on a stretch where they have allowed 155 or more yards rushing in three of their last four games. Hopefully, they have hit rock bottom with the horrible rush defense they exhibited on Sunday against Steven Jackson. The good news for their recovery is that they face only two opponents currently ranked in the top 15 rushing offenses down the stretch. Nevertheless, they are still going to have to bring the right attitude and effort because this season has proven that it doesn’t really matter who is running the ball against New Orleans because they all have the equal amount of success.
(2) Well, well, the so-called Philly Dream Team finally showed their faces on Sunday night. The saying goes that it is better to be late than to never show up, but, really guys, what took you so long. After winning the offseason, this team was supposed to run away with the NFC East and challenge for the NFC’s berth in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, none of their opponents bought in to the hype. The result was a 1-4 start to the season and a lot of questions about the efficacy of building an NFL roster as if it was a fantasy football team. In addition, there were the requisite questions about the ability of Mike Vick to stay healthy after he suffered a concussion against Atlanta and a bruised, non-throwing hand against the New York Giants. Finally, there was a lot of criticism of Andy Reid for handing the keys to his defense to a former offensive line coach. To their credit, the Eagles have responded like champions to all of the external pressure. They played decently in a seven-point victory over the Redskins in week six and then ramped up their play against the Cowboys this past week. If you would have envisioned the perfect “Dream Team” performance, it would have been the 27-point woodshed beating administered to the Cowboys. First of all, Mike Vick played like the superhero that everyone expects him to be. He completed a season-high 75% of his passes on his way to throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and he even got back to scrambling effectively for the first time in 2011. Secondly, they ran the football down the throats of the supposed number one run defense behind 185 yards from LeSean McCoy. In my opinion, McCoy is probably the most underrated running back in the NFL. It is quite an accomplishment how the Eagles effectively transitioned from the Brian Westbrook era to the McCoy era. Thirdly, high-priced free agent Nnamdi Asomugha made an appearance with his second interception of the season. It certainly didn’t hurt that the quarterback that he victimized was Tony Romo. Even bigger than Asomugha’s pick was the fact that he teamed with Assante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to render Miles Austin and Dez Bryant non-factors. Finally, the fact that the Eagles beat the Cowboys convincingly on national television made this victory extra special.
(3) Quick Hits
• The New York Giants are leading the NFC East, but does anyone think for a minute that they are going to win the division. They have lost to the Seattle Seahawks at home and nearly lost to the woeful Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. Don’t forget the fortuitous call they received in Arizona to squeak by the Cardinals. In their last 11 games, they face a current division leader four times and the overall record of their 11 remaining opponents is 36-21.
• Another shaky 5-2 team is the Baltimore Ravens. They had the ugly loss to Jacksonville last Monday night and they nearly had another disastrous loss this weekend against Arizona. They have an outstanding defense, but their offense is not keeping up their end of the bargain. Joe Flacco is a train wreck this season with a completion percentage just above 50% and a yard per attempt average less than seven. In addition, they are only the 19th ranked rushing offense.
• If the Houston Texans don’t win 11 games this season, then Gary Kubiak should be fired. They have four home games remaining and four very winnable games on the road. If the Texans can’t breakthrough in a year where the scheduling gods looked favorably on them and Peyton Manning didn’t play a down then they will never do it.
• The 49ers are running away with the NFC West. They are currently riding their first five-game winning streak since 2001 and they just wrapped up an undefeated month of October for the first time since 1997. It all adds up to their first 6-1 start since 1998 and a four-game cushion in the division. Unless they start to stumble, the rest of the division has no chance to catch the 49ers.
Conversely, this game has to make you wonder about the status of the Saints as one of the elite in the NFL. Are they the team that started the year 4-1 or are they the team that has spit the bit in two of the last three games? I still tend to think that they are the former, but their recent struggles against the Bucs and the Rams have exposed a couple of areas that they need to shore up especially on the road. First of all, Drew Brees has got to a better job of protecting the football. After throwing two picks against St. Louis, Brees has thrown the same number of interceptions in their two recent losses as he has in their other six contests combined. The plot line that Brees is a turnover machine has been downplayed for a variety of reasons in the national media, but he is clearly turning the ball over at a higher rate than some of the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL. For example, he has thrown more than twice the number of interceptions as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers over the last year and a half despite the fact that he plays in a perfect climate eight times a season. It is obvious from these numbers that Brees is taking more chances than some of his elite peers, which has inflated his interception numbers. In order for the Saints to achieve their goals, Brees has to get back to protecting the football like he did back in 2009. During their run to the Super Bowl title, he threw only 11 interceptions in 19 games, but he has already thrown 10 interceptions in eight games this year. Secondly, the Saints have to find a way to stop the run on a consistent basis. They have given up over 100 yards rushing in seven of their eight games and they are currently working on a stretch where they have allowed 155 or more yards rushing in three of their last four games. Hopefully, they have hit rock bottom with the horrible rush defense they exhibited on Sunday against Steven Jackson. The good news for their recovery is that they face only two opponents currently ranked in the top 15 rushing offenses down the stretch. Nevertheless, they are still going to have to bring the right attitude and effort because this season has proven that it doesn’t really matter who is running the ball against New Orleans because they all have the equal amount of success.
(2) Well, well, the so-called Philly Dream Team finally showed their faces on Sunday night. The saying goes that it is better to be late than to never show up, but, really guys, what took you so long. After winning the offseason, this team was supposed to run away with the NFC East and challenge for the NFC’s berth in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, none of their opponents bought in to the hype. The result was a 1-4 start to the season and a lot of questions about the efficacy of building an NFL roster as if it was a fantasy football team. In addition, there were the requisite questions about the ability of Mike Vick to stay healthy after he suffered a concussion against Atlanta and a bruised, non-throwing hand against the New York Giants. Finally, there was a lot of criticism of Andy Reid for handing the keys to his defense to a former offensive line coach. To their credit, the Eagles have responded like champions to all of the external pressure. They played decently in a seven-point victory over the Redskins in week six and then ramped up their play against the Cowboys this past week. If you would have envisioned the perfect “Dream Team” performance, it would have been the 27-point woodshed beating administered to the Cowboys. First of all, Mike Vick played like the superhero that everyone expects him to be. He completed a season-high 75% of his passes on his way to throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and he even got back to scrambling effectively for the first time in 2011. Secondly, they ran the football down the throats of the supposed number one run defense behind 185 yards from LeSean McCoy. In my opinion, McCoy is probably the most underrated running back in the NFL. It is quite an accomplishment how the Eagles effectively transitioned from the Brian Westbrook era to the McCoy era. Thirdly, high-priced free agent Nnamdi Asomugha made an appearance with his second interception of the season. It certainly didn’t hurt that the quarterback that he victimized was Tony Romo. Even bigger than Asomugha’s pick was the fact that he teamed with Assante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to render Miles Austin and Dez Bryant non-factors. Finally, the fact that the Eagles beat the Cowboys convincingly on national television made this victory extra special.
(3) Quick Hits
• The New York Giants are leading the NFC East, but does anyone think for a minute that they are going to win the division. They have lost to the Seattle Seahawks at home and nearly lost to the woeful Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. Don’t forget the fortuitous call they received in Arizona to squeak by the Cardinals. In their last 11 games, they face a current division leader four times and the overall record of their 11 remaining opponents is 36-21.
• Another shaky 5-2 team is the Baltimore Ravens. They had the ugly loss to Jacksonville last Monday night and they nearly had another disastrous loss this weekend against Arizona. They have an outstanding defense, but their offense is not keeping up their end of the bargain. Joe Flacco is a train wreck this season with a completion percentage just above 50% and a yard per attempt average less than seven. In addition, they are only the 19th ranked rushing offense.
• If the Houston Texans don’t win 11 games this season, then Gary Kubiak should be fired. They have four home games remaining and four very winnable games on the road. If the Texans can’t breakthrough in a year where the scheduling gods looked favorably on them and Peyton Manning didn’t play a down then they will never do it.
• The 49ers are running away with the NFC West. They are currently riding their first five-game winning streak since 2001 and they just wrapped up an undefeated month of October for the first time since 1997. It all adds up to their first 6-1 start since 1998 and a four-game cushion in the division. Unless they start to stumble, the rest of the division has no chance to catch the 49ers.
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