The most mediocre division in football and other NFL thoughts

(1) In the parity-filled NFL, the title of the most mediocre division has been passed from the NFC West to the AFC West. The latter is the only division in football that doesn’t feature a team with a record better than 5-4 or worse than 4-5. Another sign of the rampant mediocrity in the AFC West is that each team has a 2-2 record against the other three teams in the division. The latest stupefying result in a season filled with stupefying results was Denver’s road victory over Kansas City despite completing only two passes the entire game. The Broncos are the hottest team in the division having won three out of their last four games behind a Tim Tebow-led option attack that has never been seen in the NFL. Next up, the Broncos draw the demoralized New York Jets, who were just destroyed by New England at home and now have to cross the country for a Thursday Night match-up with the Den-veer attack. Even without the services of Knowshon Moreno and perhaps Willis McGahee, the Broncos should be able to keep the good times rolling against the Jets, but, at some point, they are going to have to be able to win a game on the strength of Tebow’s arm. Nevertheless, the Tebow kool-aid drinkers have to be daydreaming about the Broncos sneaking away with the division title.

The team best positioned to hold off the Broncos is the current leader in the division, the Oakland Raiders. After back-to-back horrible efforts against Kansas City and Denver, the Raiders righted the ship behind a solid road victory against the Chargers. The strength of the Raiders is a brutal running game, which should only improve with the return of Darren McFadden from injury. In his absence, the Raiders’ depth has been tested, but it is clear that they are in good shape with or without McFadden thanks to the presence of Michael Bush. The other encouraging sign for Oakland was the breakout game from Carson Palmer on Thursday night. After throwing six interceptions in his first two appearances as a Raider, Palmer played a masterful game in San Diego with 299 yards passing on only 14 completions. Most importantly, the Raiders rediscovered the downfield passing game, at least for one night, which has been the trademark of their offense for the entire Al Davis era. Against the Chargers, Palmer completed five passes to his wide receivers/tight ends of 24 yards or more and had a 55-yard completion to Bush. If Palmer finds a way to play at this level consistently, then the costly trade that brought him over from Cincinnati won’t be seen as so one-sided.

The other two teams in the AFC West seem to be complete disasters right now. The Chargers continue to be plagued by an undiagnosed malady and the Chiefs just learned that they likely have lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the year. As a result, unless Philip Rivers regains his mojo or Tyler Palko plays like the second coming of Tom Brady, the division is going to come down to a fight between Denver and Oakland. The Raiders have a slightly more difficult schedule down the stretch, but they will still win the division because they are getting healthier while Denver is not and they have the better quarterback of the two teams.

(2) When the times are rough in NFL cities, fans have to hunt for small signs of progress that will give them hope for the future. In some places, like Carolina and Jacksonville, the hope is that the lumps that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are taking this year will pay dividends in the near future in the form of more victories. In other places, like Seattle, fans attach themselves to the exciting, young talent on their rosters and hope that a small tweak here and there will change the fortunes of the franchise. Even fans of a team like Indianapolis that seemingly has no hope can look forward to the selection of Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft. Fans all over the NFL will play these mental tricks in order to convince themselves that their team will be the next one that goes from the outhouse to the penthouse. However, there is one NFL locale where hope is so bereft that it is unclear what the fan base has to look forward to in the coming years. This locale is Washington, D.C., where the Redskins have made no more progress in year two of the Mike Shanahan regime than they made in year two of the three previous regimes. The problems in Washington start and end with their disastrous situation at the quarterback position. From the very beginning, Shanahan has bungled the management of the most important position in football starting with jettisoning Jason Campbell to Oakland continuing with the ill-fated trade for Donovan McNabb and the unconscionable decision to go to war with a pu-pu platter of quarterbacks this season. The current melodrama involving John Beck and Rex Grossman highlights two gigantic pockmarks on Shanahan’s resume: (1) he has never developed quarterback into a credible starter and (2) he has never won anything of significance without John Elway. The closest he came on the first point was turning the quarterback position over to Brian Griese following Elway’s retirement, but Griese never started a full 16-game slate in the NFL and his career can be best described as being one of a journeyman’s. On the latter point, Shanahan is barely a .500 coach in the years that Elway was not his quarterback. Also, Shanny has exactly one playoff win since Elway retired 12 years ago. Without the good fortune of having one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks fall into his lap, it is likely that Shanahan would have been exposed as a mediocre coach in the late 90’s and he would never have been in the discussion to be the Redskins’ head coach. Unfortunately, for Skins’ fans, Shanahan is their coach and he isn’t going anywhere in the short-term due to the huge financial ramifications of sending him packing. As a result, Washington fans have to hope that one of the top quarterback prospects is available when they draft and they need to trust that Shanahan will identify the right player for the job. Regardless, the Skins are likely heading for another losing season in 2012 as they groom a rookie quarterback, which means that the pessimism currently hanging over the franchise will linger like stink on a pig.

(3) Quick Hits
• It’s a two-horse race in the NFC East between the Giants and the Cowboys. Count on Dallas being 8-4, riding a five-game winning streak, when they face New York on December 11th. As the Cowboys get more familiar playing Rob Ryan’s schemes, their defense will lead the way to a division title.

• The Chicago Bears are playing better football than any team not based in Green Bay. They have the best running back in football, the best returner in football, a solid defense and an improving offensive line. They have to overcome a key offensive line injury, but they are the current leaders for one of the two wild card spots in the NFC.

• The stat-heads and the academics might disagree, but Mike Smith made a bad choice to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory. It didn’t make sense to take the chance when failing to gain the necessary yardage was basically guaranteeing a loss. Bill Belichick was excoriated for taking a similar chance two years ago and Smith deserves the same critique.

• Game, set & match to the San Francisco 49ers.

• The Patriots are far from perfect, but they are still the class of the AFC East. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, they will win the division and host a playoff game. The Matt Schaub injury has just opened up a huge opportunity for them to snatch one of the two AFC byes.

• The Baltimore Ravens are the most schizophrenic team in the NFL. They beat the Steelers twice, but lose to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks. The loss to Seattle has just handed the inside track to the division title back to the Steelers.

• The Schaub injury is going to be a huge test for the Texans. Before news of the injury hit the airwaves, some were arguing that Houston was the best team in the AFC. Now, they have to hand the keys to the offense to Matt Leinart and cross their fingers. You can hear the hooting and hollering in Tennessee from coast to coast.