Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Something in the water in St. Louis and other NFL thoughts

(1) The U.S. Congress should stop wasting their time trying to reduce our gazillion dollar deficit and should immediately create a Blue Ribbon Commission to investigate the suspected performance enhancers that have been added to the water in the St. Louis, Missouri area. I know that we have no proof that the water supply has been tampered with, but how else can we explain the St. Louis Cardinals’ mad dash to and through the playoffs followed by the St. Louis Rams, all but left for dead, dominating the visiting New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Rams, playing without their franchise quarterback, were widely expected to lie down and play dead while the Saints rampaged through another undermanned opponent like they did last Sunday night to Indianapolis. Unfortunately, for New Orleans, the Rams either were rightfully motivated by the visit from the World Series champions or were able to locate their pride that they had somehow lost during the horrific beginning of the 2001 season because they played like their hair was on fire. They hit the Saints in the mouth from the opening whistle until the clock showed all zeroes in the fourth quarter. They limited one of the best running teams in the NFL, albeit one missing a key cog in Mark Ingram, to 56 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. They harassed Drew Brees all game long, which led to two interceptions and eliminated the big play component of New Orleans’ passing game. The result was six sacks and a season-low 6.1 yards per attempt for Brees. With a winnable stretch of games facing the Rams in the next four weeks, this performance might just be the elixir that turns around their season. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that they could be 5-6, riding a five-game winning streak, when they head to San Francisco for a week 13 showdown. Although they have dug themselves a hole too big to escape from, it cannot be underestimated the impact of having a strong finish to the season especially when you consider the expectations that many people had for St. Louis entering the year. Nevertheless, for one week, the Rams played to their potential and got a huge win in the process.

Conversely, this game has to make you wonder about the status of the Saints as one of the elite in the NFL. Are they the team that started the year 4-1 or are they the team that has spit the bit in two of the last three games? I still tend to think that they are the former, but their recent struggles against the Bucs and the Rams have exposed a couple of areas that they need to shore up especially on the road. First of all, Drew Brees has got to a better job of protecting the football. After throwing two picks against St. Louis, Brees has thrown the same number of interceptions in their two recent losses as he has in their other six contests combined. The plot line that Brees is a turnover machine has been downplayed for a variety of reasons in the national media, but he is clearly turning the ball over at a higher rate than some of the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL. For example, he has thrown more than twice the number of interceptions as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers over the last year and a half despite the fact that he plays in a perfect climate eight times a season. It is obvious from these numbers that Brees is taking more chances than some of his elite peers, which has inflated his interception numbers. In order for the Saints to achieve their goals, Brees has to get back to protecting the football like he did back in 2009. During their run to the Super Bowl title, he threw only 11 interceptions in 19 games, but he has already thrown 10 interceptions in eight games this year. Secondly, the Saints have to find a way to stop the run on a consistent basis. They have given up over 100 yards rushing in seven of their eight games and they are currently working on a stretch where they have allowed 155 or more yards rushing in three of their last four games. Hopefully, they have hit rock bottom with the horrible rush defense they exhibited on Sunday against Steven Jackson. The good news for their recovery is that they face only two opponents currently ranked in the top 15 rushing offenses down the stretch. Nevertheless, they are still going to have to bring the right attitude and effort because this season has proven that it doesn’t really matter who is running the ball against New Orleans because they all have the equal amount of success.

(2) Well, well, the so-called Philly Dream Team finally showed their faces on Sunday night. The saying goes that it is better to be late than to never show up, but, really guys, what took you so long. After winning the offseason, this team was supposed to run away with the NFC East and challenge for the NFC’s berth in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, none of their opponents bought in to the hype. The result was a 1-4 start to the season and a lot of questions about the efficacy of building an NFL roster as if it was a fantasy football team. In addition, there were the requisite questions about the ability of Mike Vick to stay healthy after he suffered a concussion against Atlanta and a bruised, non-throwing hand against the New York Giants. Finally, there was a lot of criticism of Andy Reid for handing the keys to his defense to a former offensive line coach. To their credit, the Eagles have responded like champions to all of the external pressure. They played decently in a seven-point victory over the Redskins in week six and then ramped up their play against the Cowboys this past week. If you would have envisioned the perfect “Dream Team” performance, it would have been the 27-point woodshed beating administered to the Cowboys. First of all, Mike Vick played like the superhero that everyone expects him to be. He completed a season-high 75% of his passes on his way to throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and he even got back to scrambling effectively for the first time in 2011. Secondly, they ran the football down the throats of the supposed number one run defense behind 185 yards from LeSean McCoy. In my opinion, McCoy is probably the most underrated running back in the NFL. It is quite an accomplishment how the Eagles effectively transitioned from the Brian Westbrook era to the McCoy era. Thirdly, high-priced free agent Nnamdi Asomugha made an appearance with his second interception of the season. It certainly didn’t hurt that the quarterback that he victimized was Tony Romo. Even bigger than Asomugha’s pick was the fact that he teamed with Assante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to render Miles Austin and Dez Bryant non-factors. Finally, the fact that the Eagles beat the Cowboys convincingly on national television made this victory extra special.

 (3) Quick Hits
• The New York Giants are leading the NFC East, but does anyone think for a minute that they are going to win the division. They have lost to the Seattle Seahawks at home and nearly lost to the woeful Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. Don’t forget the fortuitous call they received in Arizona to squeak by the Cardinals. In their last 11 games, they face a current division leader four times and the overall record of their 11 remaining opponents is 36-21.

 • Another shaky 5-2 team is the Baltimore Ravens. They had the ugly loss to Jacksonville last Monday night and they nearly had another disastrous loss this weekend against Arizona. They have an outstanding defense, but their offense is not keeping up their end of the bargain. Joe Flacco is a train wreck this season with a completion percentage just above 50% and a yard per attempt average less than seven. In addition, they are only the 19th ranked rushing offense.

 • If the Houston Texans don’t win 11 games this season, then Gary Kubiak should be fired. They have four home games remaining and four very winnable games on the road. If the Texans can’t breakthrough in a year where the scheduling gods looked favorably on them and Peyton Manning didn’t play a down then they will never do it.

 • The 49ers are running away with the NFC West. They are currently riding their first five-game winning streak since 2001 and they just wrapped up an undefeated month of October for the first time since 1997. It all adds up to their first 6-1 start since 1998 and a four-game cushion in the division. Unless they start to stumble, the rest of the division has no chance to catch the 49ers.

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