Commish's Game of the Week: New England at Pittsburgh

Preview
The New England Patriots should have no fear playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Tom Brady took over the starting quarterback position in 2001, the Patriots have beaten the Steelers six times out of eight opportunities, including two conference championship victories. In their two defeats, Brady was present and accounted for in only one of them, a 14-point regular season loss in 2004, while Pittsburgh destroyed New England back in 2008 with Matt Cassel as the starter. Despite the measure of historical dominance, the game that will be most illustrative about this year’s match-up would be last year’s 13-point road victory for the Patriots. If you remember, New England dominated the Steelers for most of the game behind a masterful performance from Brady and his receivers. Specifically, Brady dominated the Steel Curtain defense underneath with Wes Welker and in the seam with Rob Gronkowski. Ultimately, the connection with Gronkowski proved to be the back-breaker for the Steelers as Brady connected with his rookie tight end for three touchdowns that appeared to occur on the exact same play call. It is safe to say that the Steelers will be tested once again by the Patriots’ passing attack despite the fact that they enter this game as the number one ranked passing defense in total passing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed. It would seem obvious, based on their success from last season, to expect the Patriots to attack the Steelers again with their two-headed monster at tight end, but such a simplistic notion would be selling Bill Belichick short. Brady is obviously a gifted signal-caller, who has an uncanny ability to maximize the talent around him, but one of the underrated aspects of this Patriots’ team is their ability to run the football. They don’t have a featured back, but the trio of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead are good enough to do damage on the ground especially when the Patriots employ the spread formations that they seem to like so much. Since their week three loss to Buffalo, the Patriots have averaged 145.3 yards rushing per game. With the New England ground game rounding into shape and the Steelers’ rush defense looking vulnerable, the Patriots have an opportunity to create a lot of yards running the football. Controlling the game on the ground has two benefits: (1) protects Brady from a pass rush that ranks fourth in the NFL with 17 sacks and (2) keeps their horrible pass defense on the sideline. It goes without saying that the Patriots are going to spread out the Steelers in an attempt to take advantage of their age on defense, but the types of plays that they run out of their spread formations will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.

The Steelers are on a bit of a roll right now, but the Patriots will be the best football team they have faced since opening day against Baltimore and we all remember what happened against the Ravens. Although the New England offense will challenge the Steelers, the Patriots’ defense looks like it will be in for a long day against the high-flying Pittsburgh offense. The Patriots are dead-last in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and yards per attempt allowed, which should have Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace licking their chops. Outside of a really strong day against Mark Sanchez, the New England defense has allowed nearly 360 yards passing per game. Their ability to attack the vulnerable Patriots’ secondary gives the Steelers the best chance to win this game. Since the expectation is that Roethlisberger is going to be dropping back 40 times or so in this game, it is paramount that the Pittsburgh offensive line keep their quarterback relatively clean. The Steelers have allowed 20 sacks on the season, which doesn’t include all of the times that Big Ben has narrowly avoided a potential sack with his size and/or athletic ability. In addition, if Roethlisberger feels protected on Sunday, then it will reduce the chances that he will have another turnover-fest like we saw on opening day. Fortunately, the Patriots have not shown themselves to be very adept at rushing the passer, but you can bet your life savings that Belichick will cook up a scheme that will create some pressure on Big Ben. The coaching match-up between Mike Tomlin and Belichick will also be an important factor to focus on during this game. It will pit Tomlin’s quiet confidence in his guys and his game plan against the Belichick’s ability to find the chinks in the armor of his opponents and exploit them to his advantage. Both guys have had a lot of success with their style of coaching, but the extra week of preparation tilts the playing field slightly in Belichick’s direction. The extra time to watch tape and analyze Pittsburgh’s tendencies will likely lead to a game plan that will mask the Patriots’ deficiencies while maximizing their strengths.

Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have had trouble holding on to the football. The Patriots turned the ball over four times in their only loss and another four times during a near-loss to Dallas. The Steelers have eight of their 12 turnovers in their two losses. The advantage goes to New England for two reasons: (1) Big Ben has a penchant for giving the ball away due to his willingness to hold onto the ball until the very last second and (2) the Patriots’ defense has been much better at creating turnovers.

2. First team to 30 points wins – The Patriots have scored 30+ points in five out of six games. The Steelers have scored 24 or less points in five out of seven games. The Steelers may have the better big play potential, but New England is superior in the red zone due to options like Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski. Neither defense is going to stop the opposing offenses from scoring too often, but the Patriots’ will put the ball in the end zone more than Pittsburgh.

3. Avoid big plays – The Roethlisberger-Wallace connection has become the best deep threat combo in the NFL. They already have 81-yard and 95-yard touchdowns this year. The Patriots cannot allow Wallace to beat them deep. Look for New England to force the Steelers to sustain long drives in order to score points. The hope with this strategy is that Big Ben becomes frustrated and starts forcing the football into tight spaces, which should lead to turnover opportunities.

Prediction
New England 31 – Pittsburgh 24