Commish's Game of the Week: San Diego at New York

Preview
The San Diego Chargers have had a fast start to a season for one of the few times in the Norv Turner era, but the impressive record has largely been built against the bottom tier of teams in the NFL. Starting with this week’s match-up with the Jets, the Chargers face teams with a .500 record or better in eight of the last 11 weeks. The big question for San Diego is still related to their ability to finish the season strong. On paper, the Chargers appear to have a lot of the characteristics of an 11- or 12-win team. First of all, they have a top 10 offense led by a preseason MVP candidate at quarterback. Philip Rivers hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, but you have to figure that things are going to start tilting in the other direction for the Pro Bowl quarterback. Secondly, there is no team in the NFL better than the Chargers at converting third down opportunities and keeping drives alive. San Diego has converted an astounding 56.5% of their third downs, which they have accomplished largely without any contributions from Antonio Gates. Finally, the Chargers have a strong defensive unit especially against the pass. Unfortunately, there are a couple of problem areas that could undermine their success on offense and defense similarly to their special teams’ breakdowns in 2010. The biggest area of concern has to be the -5 turnover differential. The most significant contributing factor to the awful turnover ratio has been Rivers’ inability to protect the football. Rivers has turned the ball over nine times (7 interceptions and two fumbles lost). The other area of concern, the Chargers’ inability to protect the quarterback, is probably one of the major reasons why Rivers has such a high number of giveaways this season. The silver lining is that San Diego has won four out of five games despite their offensive struggles. The optimist would say that it is a good sign for their mental toughness that they have been able to find ways to win games despite playing less than perfect football. The naysayers would counter by stating that the Chargers’ subpar efforts are good enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but are going to come up woefully short when the schedule gets tougher.

The Jets, on the other hand, don’t have a lot of positives to hang their hat on this year. They have gone from being a popular pick to win the AFC East and make a Super Bowl run to a team that has lost its identity in the midst of poor play and a deteriorating locker room environment. The team from the last two seasons that wanted to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense has largely disappeared in 2011. The injury to Nick Mangold has obviously had an impact on New York’s entire offense, but they should still be better than the 31st ranked rushing offense. The same can be said for the Jets’ defense, which has been carved up on a regular basis by opposing running games and enters Sunday’s match-up as the 28th ranked run defense. Ultimately, the Jets are going to have to assume the “Ground & Pound” persona again because Mark Sanchez and the talent at wide receiver are not ready to make the shift to being a primarily passing team. On the bright side, the Jets have a couple of positives on the defensive side of the ball that they can lean on while they work to correct their flaws. First of all, they have been one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. You could say that their lofty ranking is the result of their opponents eschewing the pass to run the ball down their throats, but the presence of stellar defenders like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie makes it feel like this is a legitimate strength of the New York defense. Secondly, the Jets have done a fine job sacking the quarterback through the first quarter of the season. More important than the 17 sacks is the fact that the Jets have had 10 different players register at least ½ a sack. Often times, an elite pass rusher can be neutralized by the opposing team’s offensive scheme, but a team, like the Jets, that can bring pressure with a variety of bodies is much harder to defend. The Jets were able to flex their lost muscle on Monday night against the woeful Dolphins, but San Diego is going to provide a whole different level of competition.

Keys to the Game
1. Third Down Efficiency – This game pits the best offense (San Diego) at converting third down opportunities against the best defense (New York) at preventing third downs from being converted. As the saying goes, something has to give. If the Chargers continue to convert at their present rate, then they will win this game in dominating fashion. The Jets’ best chance to win involves forcing their will upon the Chargers, especially on third down.

2. Protecting the quarterback – Neither of these teams has done a particularly good job of protecting the quarterback. The difference is that the Jets have a much more accomplished pass rush than the Chargers. New York has a clear advantage in this area, so they must continue to pressure the passer.

3. Control Rivers – The other strength of the Jets’ defense is their pass defense. Although they have a decent running game, the Chargers clearly want to lead with the pass. The Jets have to make sure that Vincent Jackson’s visit to Revis Island is an unpleasant one. Jackson is the Chargers’ best deep threat, so shutting him down will force San Diego to mount long, sustained drives, which increases the opportunities to create turnovers.

Prediction
San Diego 24 – New York Jets 20