Commish's Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at San Francisco

Preview
The game between Tampa Bay and San Francisco is a match-up between two 3-1 teams that are both, surprisingly, division leaders. Despite their early success, both teams have enough question marks about them that this game is virtually a toss-up. The first advantage enjoyed by San Francisco is that they get the pleasure of facing the Bucs after a short week and a cross-country flight. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Tampa has had trouble getting started quickly in all of their four games. They were shut out in the first half during their week two match-up with Minnesota and they have only scored 39% of their points in the first half. Another advantage for San Francisco is the fact that their defensive strength, stopping the run, is in direct conflict with the preferred mode of operation for the Buccaneers. Tampa wants to control the line of scrimmage and dominate in the run game like they did against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The 49ers are in the top five in rushing yards allowed and the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Even with the likely absence of Isaac Sopoaga in the middle of the defensive front, the 49ers should still be able to limit the Bucs’ ability to run the football. With a laser focus on preventing LeGarrette Blount from running wild, San Francisco will force Josh Freeman to win this game with his arm. Freeman had high expectations coming off a wildly successful second-year in the NFL, but his start to the 2011 season has been shaky at best. The Bucs are just the 17th best passing offense in the league and Freeman is averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. The Bucs are not trying to be the best passing team in the NFL, but the results should be better with the weapons that are at Freeman’s disposal. However, the 49ers have been extremely vulnerable in their pass defense, so this match-up just might be the recipe for Freeman to have his biggest day of the year.

The Bucs’ strength on defense is also their ability to stuff the run. It would seem wise for Tampa to take a similar approach as San Francisco and force the opposing quarterback to beat them. The Bucs want to see if the real Alex Smith is the guy that threw for over 200 yards in the second half against the Eagles or the guy that has led the 29th ranked passing attack through the first quarter of the season. If Tampa can create long third down opportunities for the 49ers, then they will be able to unleash their young pass rushers. Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn, Gerald McCoy and the other guys on the defensive line are salivating at the opportunity to get after a San Francisco offensive line that has allowed nearly four sacks per game. The ability to pressure the quarterback is an area where the Bucs have a clear advantage and should be able to use it to create turnovers and short fields for their offense. Another area where Tampa seems to have an edge is on third down. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL in keeping drives alive with third down conversions and one of the stingiest in allowing their opponents to convert similar situations. They are facing another stingy team on third down, but, if the Bucs can control the ball, then their superior offensive line will be able to wear out the depleted 49ers’ front. Finally, the Bucs must protect the football against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Tampa has done a decent job through the first four games, but they are playing a team that has built a large part of their 3-1 record due to their ability to cause turnovers. The 49ers are +8 in the takeaway/give-away department, so they will be looking for opportunities to continue that trend.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Protect the football – Both teams have positive turnover differentials, so they will be looking for chances to take the football away from the other side in order to create short fields for the offense or score points themselves. The strength of both teams is their defense, so points will come at a premium. A short field here or there or a defensive touchdown could very well be the difference in the game. Both teams do a good job of protecting the football, but the 49ers will force a key turnover that will help them win this game.

2. Win the special teams battle – Both teams have strong special teams. San Francisco is second in the league in kickoff return average and the Bucs are tied for 3rd. They are very comparable in punt return average, field goal kicking and net punting yards. The difference between the two teams is Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn is third in the NFL in kickoff return average and he is in the top 15 in punt return average. Even though it occurred in the same game, Ginn also has two return touchdowns on the season. Preston Parker is a nice returner, especially on punt returns, but Ginn averages nearly 11 more yards per kickoff return.

3. Stay on the field – Time of possession will be an important factor in this game. The Bucs’ best chance to win the game is to control the football for long stretches of time and wear out the San Francisco defense. As long as the extended drives result in points, the Bucs will be able to steal a win on the road. Based on early results, the Bucs look like the team that is more capable of staying on the field, so this will be a very interesting area of the game to keep an eye on.

Prediction
San Francisco 16 – Tampa Bay 10