Tuesday, October 4, 2011

The Jets and Ravens struggle to score and other NFL thoughts

(1) I can appreciate a defensive battle just as much as the next guy, but the Sunday night match-up between the Ravens and the Jets was just plain, ugly football. Both defenses can’t help but play well when both offenses can’t get out of their own way. There were a lot of points scored, but it wasn’t anything close to an offensive game. The Ravens and Jets set an NFL record for the most points scored with only one offensive touchdown. The Jets were so bad on offense that its only contribution to the total score was a 40-yard field goal late in the first half. The Jets’ ineptitude could be directly attributed to the poor play of Mark Sanchez, who seemed to get more and more uncomfortable as the night wore on. His poor play has to be setting off alarm bells throughout the organization about whether he is making progress in his third year. Despite the back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, Sanchez is still more of a dink-and-dunk quarterback (6.62 yds/attempt in his career) and a 50-50 proposition on every pass attempted (54.5% completion percentage in his career). On Sunday night, Sanchez looked terrible, even by Pop Warner standards, with four turnovers, a 31.4% completion percentage and a 3.4 yards/attempt average. Fortunately, for Sanchez, Joe Flacco played his own brand of awful football to ensure that the criticism of the quarterbacks would be shared equally. Flacco had his own pair of turnovers to go along with a 32.2% completion percentage and a mediocre 5.3 yards/attempt. The start to the 2011 season for Flacco has been maddening because he has been unable to establish the consistency that he started to show in 2010. He performed brilliantly against the Steelers on opening day and the Rams last week, but he has played atrocious football against the Titans in week two and now against the Jets. He entered the year completed 62% of his attempts during his career, but he is only completing 49.3% of his passes through four games. The Ravens should consider themselves extremely fortunate to be 3-1 despite a very uneven start to the year for their quarterback. Since the quarterbacks struggled so mightily, this game had about as much flow as a clogged sewer pipe. The turnovers certainly contributed to the lack of rhythm, but the inability of either team to regularly convert their third down opportunities killed more drives than Akili Smith. It also didn’t help that both sides couldn’t generate credible running games and the penalty flags were flying around on a regular basis (16 combined penalties). The commissioner should instruct NFL Films to destroy all video evidence of this game because I don’t think it will be immortalized any time soon.

It was a good thing that the defenses and special teams decided to show up and add some excitement because, otherwise, the 70,000 fans in attendance would have fallen asleep like they had been given a pair of Ambien tablets. The lack of offensive fireworks was replaced by two fumble returns for touchdowns, two interception returns for touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. The combined four defensive touchdowns tie an NFL record that has been done many times, most recently in a Chargers-Chiefs game from October 19, 1986. In addition to the scoring smorgasbord, the defenses generally punished the offenses from the first whistle to the last. The game featured 16 quarterback hits, four sacks and seven tackles for loss, as well as a ton of quarterback pressure. The intensity generated by the defenses contributed to the inaccuracy from both quarterbacks. Furthermore, the defenses put the clamps on the opposing running games as well. The Ravens were able to generate 112 yards rushing because they committed to the run in the second half to prevent the fans from the horror of seeing another Joe Flacco pass attempt. Despite the shiny bottom line from Baltimore, the two offenses combined to average 2.5 yards/carry, which is the best indication that neither ground game was very effective. In the end, both defenses can take a great deal of pride in the manner that they discombobulated their opponent. For Baltimore, this defensive effort was about par for the course. For the Jets, this performance demonstrates that they are still capable of being an elite unit after the demoralizing way that they lost in Oakland the week prior. Now they will have to figure out how to get the offense, defense and special units playing well at the same time.

(2) Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers have a two game lead in the NFC West after the first quarter of the 2011 season. Even crazier, the 49ers are a 48-yard Dallas field goal away from being undefeated. San Francisco has not played the toughest schedule in the world, but they have won two road games, in the Eastern time zone, over the last two weeks. Their latest victory has to be their most impressive of the young season. They not only beat the Dream Team from Philly, but they overcame a 20-point second half deficit to do it. This win, more than anything, demonstrates that the 49ers have developed the mental fortitude to win tough games no matter where they are playing. They would not have been able to accomplish this under the last coaching staff, so a lot of credit has to be given to Jim Harbaugh and his coaches. The new regime has enjoyed the early success because they have created an identity in all three phases of the game. On defense, the 49ers are a hard-hitting and opportunistic group. Their two biggest strengths are the ability to stop the run and create turnovers. They are the fourth best run defense in the league, allowing just 74 yards per game, and this has allowed them to make their opponents one-dimensional. I believe this is one of the reasons why the 49ers are currently 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Their opponents have quickly realized that is it fruitless to run the football, so they have resorted to throwing the ball. Through the first four games, the 49ers’ opponents have thrown the ball on 65% of the plays even though every game has been competitive until the end. In addition to their run defense, San Francisco has been extremely successful creating turnovers. They have forced nearly three turnovers per game and they are currently tied with Detroit with a +8 turnover differential. The mistakes by the other teams have provided short fields for the 49ers and have kept their defense fresh.

The San Francisco offense is definitely developing a reputation as one that manages the game and maximizes their scoring opportunities. With Alex Smith at quarterback and zero established playmakers on the outside, the 49ers have to really focus on taking care of the football and taking advantage of their scoring chances. On both accounts, they have been doing a great job under Coach Harbaugh. They have only turned the ball three times on offense, which is one of the lowest numbers in the NFL, and they have averaged 23.5 points per game despite being the 28th ranked unit in the league. The biggest improvement for the 49ers has been the confidence that Coach Harbaugh has instilled in his quarterback. The struggles of Alex Smith have been well-chronicled since he was drafted number one overall, but it looks like he has finally met his dream head coach. The 49ers might have played things a little close to the vest through the first three weeks, but they had their best offensive output against the Eagles in week four. They rolled up 442 yards of total offense, which included 291 yards passing and 164 yards rushing. The most important thing that they showed on Sunday was the ability to create explosive plays as they averaged 7.2 yards per play. It looks like they are starting to hit their stride just as their schedule turns a little tougher over the next several weeks.

The final piece of the puzzle has been the play of the special teams over the first part of the season. The 49ers returned two kicks for touchdowns on opening day and they haven’t looked back since. They are the number two team in the league on kickoff returns and the 14th ranked team on punt returns. The success in the return game has also set-up their offense with very favorable field position. In addition, San Francisco has been very stingy with their coverage teams. They are allowing only 21.3 yards per kickoff return and 8.5 yards per punt return. Finally, their kickers have played excellently as well. David Akers has made 80% of his field goals, which includes two 50+ conversions. Andy Lee has been booming punt after punt, which has resulted in a net average of 46.1 yards. In conclusion, the 49ers have seized control of the weak NFC West and are poised to run away with things. They are building confidence based on their early success, which is great news for their new coaching staff and their long-suffering fan base.

(3) At the quarter pole, the 2011 NFL season has started to take shape. We now have enough of a body of evidence to determine which teams are good, which teams are bad and which are kind of in the middle. For example, the Minnesota Vikings are terrible. They are most likely the worst team in the NFL after they stubbed their toe against one of the other dregs of society, the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers are showing that they will have no hangover from their Super Bowl victory. Since the season has started to take shape, let’s hand out some awards for what we have seen through the first four weeks.

Best Team of the Quarter Season: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The other team is the Detroit Lions, so shouldn’t there be co-honoree for this award? I’m putting the Pack slightly ahead of the Comeback Cats for two reasons: (1) Green Bay gets the benefit of the doubt because they are the defending Super Bowl champs and (2) the Packers haven’t had to overcome 20-point deficits in consecutive weeks to keep their perfect record alive. The Packers have the most explosive offense in the NFL and a defense that is much better than what their current ranking indicates. I also believe that they have a perfect balance of youth and experience on both sides of the football, which should allow them to stay relatively healthy and succeed in close games when the weather turns ugly.

MVP of the Quarter Season: Aaron Rodgers
A lot of the early headlines have belonged to Tom Brady, but Rodgers has quietly elevated his game to the point that he belongs on the Mount Rushmore of active quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He is on pace to increase his completion percentage by six points, throw 20 touchdowns more and throw 1,400 yards more than his numbers from last season. In addition, Rodgers can make opposing teams pay with his running ability, which is something that Brady, Manning, Brees and many others are unable to do.

Rookie of the Quarter Season: Cam Newton
Is there even an argument? Newton has completely redefined what we should expect from a rookie quarterback. He is on pace to throw for over 5,500 yards, throw for 20 TDs, complete nearly 60% of his attempts and average 8.5 yards/attempt.

Coach of the Quarter Season: Jim Schwartz
Schwartz has led the Lions to a 4-0 start. Do I need to provide any other evidence? Even more incredible, the Lions are essentially working on a 12-game winning streak (4-0 to end last season, 4-0 in the preseason, and 4-0 to start 2011). These are the same Detroit Lions that were 9-47 from the middle of 2007 through the end of the 2010 season.

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