Week 17 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 17 (home teams in CAPS):

CARDINALS over Seahawks
Lions over PACKERS
49ers over RAMS
DOLPHINS over Jets
VIKINGS over Bears
PATRIOTS over Bills
Panthers over SAINTS
EAGLES over Redskins
Colts over JAGUARS
Titans over TEXANS
FALCONS over Buccaneers
BENGALS over Ravens
Steelers over BROWNS
BRONCOS over Chiefs
Chargers over RAIDERS
GIANTS over Cowboys

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 155-85

Week 16 Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week No. 1: Green Bay became the fifth defending champ since 1990 to earn the number one seed (1990 - 49ers, 1993 - Cowboys, 1998 - Broncos, 2008 - Giants).

Stat of the Week No. 2: Victor Cruz owns the record for most receiving yards in New York Giants history with 1,358 yards.  Cruz also set another franchise record with his sixth 100-yard receiving game of the season.

Stat of the Week No. 3: Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall became the first Dolphins' teammates to have 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a single season in the history of the franchise.

Stat of the Week No. 4: New England's win marked the 10th time this season that a team trailed by at least 17 points and came back to win, which is the most in a single season in NFL history.

Stat of the Week No. 5: Christmas Eve marked the first time in NFL history that two different quarterbacks threw 90+ yard touchdown passes on the same day (Cam Newton, Eli Manning).

Bonus Stat of the Week: Bill Belichick & George Seifert are the only head coaches in NFL history with 13+ wins in four different seasons.  Belichick can become the first coach with five such seasons with a victory over Buffalo in week 17.

An NFC South rivalry renewed and other NFL thoughts

(1) The Atlanta-New Orleans rivalry doesn't get as much publicity as the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rivalry or even some of the NFC East rivalries, but rest assured that when the Saints and Falcons get together it is as chippy and hard-fought as any other.  Prior to Monday night, this bitter and tightly contested series had seen the last six games decided by a touchdown or less and the past four by a field goal each.  Last night, however, the Saints demonstrated for the entire nation how much the gap between the two teams was growing as the playoffs loom.  They didn't just beat their arch-rival handily, they dominated the Falcons in every phase of the game.  First of all, the New Orleans offense stayed on the field on night long as they converted 77% of their third down opportunities against a defense that was hell-bent on stopping them.  The Falcons shouldn't feel too bad about their inability to get off the field against the Saints because New Orleans entered the game leading the NFL in third down efficiency with a 55% conversion rate.  Secondly, New Orleans flaunted their abundance of offensive riches as five different players scored touchdowns and Drew Brees accounted for four of the TDs through the air.  The Saints were so good even though they were two men down as Mark Ingram didn't dress for the game and Lance Moore went off with an injury in the first half.  With Brees calling the shots and talented guys like Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham making plays with the football, this is an offense that no defense wants to face in the playoffs.  Finally, the Saints exhibited an offensive balance that was reminiscent of their Super Bowl-winning season of 2010.  Although he struggled at times in the second half, Brees still threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.  In addition, they got 164 yards rushing from their three-headed running attack and they averaged an eye-popping 7.1 yards per carry along the way.  After all was said and done, it is safe to say that the Falcons want no part of the Saints in the playoffs.  As a result, they have to take care of business against Tampa Bay this coming Sunday and hope and pray that the Green Bay Packers find a way to beat the Detroit Lions, so that they can be the five seed and earn a trip to New York or Dallas instead of a Wild Card weekend visit to the Bayou.

You can excuse the Saints' fans for getting excited like a kid on Christmas at the prospect of hosting the Falcons in the playoffs after the way that their offense has dominated Atlanta mentally and physically this season.  In the first meeting, the specter of facing Drew Brees even one more time caused Mike Smith to make the ill-fated decision to go for a fourth down deep in his own territory.  Last night, Smith and his defensive coaches had no answer for the record-setting quarterback when the game was still in doubt in the first half.  Brees wasn't perfect, but he did just enough to bring down one of the game's most hallowed records, which had been owned by Dan Marino for the past 27 seasons.  Even though Brees' new record for passing yards in a season probably won't last as long as Marino's, he can still be proud of his accomplishments especially when you consider the adversity that he has faced in his career.  If you remember back to when he came out of Purdue University, there were many "experts" that believed he was too short to play the quarterback position in the NFL.  After he hurt his shoulder following several productive seasons in San Diego, there were many "experts," including Nick Saban, that believed he was damaged goods.  When he signed with New Orleans, both sides were taking a leap of faith, but no one can complain about how things have turned out.  In his six seasons in the Bayou, Brees has delivered three division titles, one Super Bowl victory and countless memorable moments.  It is pretty clear that the Saints are the NFC's best hope to dethrone the Packers, so there may be a few more wonderful memories to be created in the next month or so.

(2) The New York Jets are the biggest phonies in the NFL.  They are supposed to "Ground and Pound", but their offense has been grounded and their defense has usually been the one being pounded.  This is what happens when your running game consists of a not-ready-for-primetime Shonn Greene and an over-the-hill LaDanian Tomlinson or when your defense prefers to live off their reputation rather than to continually establish new reputations.  They are supposed to be the Road Warriors that have won four road playoff games over the last two seasons on their way to back-to-back conference championship game appearances.  Unfortunately, it has struck midnight on their penchant for winning road games because their 2-5 road record has nearly unraveled their season completely.  Now they face a must-win game in South Beach to keep their dimming playoff hopes alive.  Even if they do manage to pull a rabbit out of their hat against the Dolphins, they are still unlikely to make the postseason because they need about half the NFL to help them out by losing.  They are supposed to be the biggest bullies on the block behind a physical offense, suffocating defense and confident coaching staff.  Unfortunately, they have failed to deliver on any of things they sold their fans before the season started.  Being a Jets' fan must feel like getting an Etch-a-sketch when you ordered an iPad2.  Their failures start and end with two people: Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez.  Ryan continued to talk tougher and tougher even when the checks he was writing were obviously never going to be cashed.  Even though he would probably claim that his comments were the result of the confidence he had in his team, it became very apparent that they were fast becoming a distraction and overcompensation for something that was lurking underneath the surface.  Ultimately, Rex needs to shut his mouth because it is never a good idea when the head coach overshadows the rest of the organization.  Hopefully, this latest indignity suffered at the hands of the New York Giants, in addition to his confrontation with Brandon Jacobs, will cause Ryan to take it down two notches.  Sadly, the Jets could have overcome Ryan's bragging and boasting had they had a credible NFL quarterback calling the shots.  Sanchez had managed to "manage" his way to the doorstep of the Super Bowl on two different occasions, but it is clear that he is a player whose confidence has been shot full of more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese.  How many more bounced passes or passes sailed over the heads of receivers will it take before the Jets realize that they have a problem at quarterback?  On Christmas Eve, it was apparent to anyone that watched that Sanchez was not only the worst quarterback in New York City, but also the worst quarterback in the AFC East.  Personally, as a fan of the Seattle Seahawks, I'm ecstatic that they chose Aaron Curry over Sanchez because I would rather miss on a linebacker than on a player who was supposed to be a franchise quarterback.  In the end, it will probably be a good thing to miss the playoffs because perhaps the Jets can use the time to reflect on their mistakes and come back better for it in 2012.

(3) Quick Hits

• Fair or unfair, Tony Romo's legacy is going to be further tarnished by the injury that knocked him out of the loss to the Eagles.  Even though the Cowboys would not have clinched anything by beating Philadelphia, it is another example of a time when Romo was unable to deliver when his team needed him most.  Does anyone, outside of the Dallas Metroplex, believe that Dallas is going to march in to MetLife Stadium and exit with a victory?  If so, then I have some waterfront property that you might interest you in Omaha, Nebraska.
• The shine has quickly rubbed off of Tebow mania following back-to-back blowout losses to New England and Buffalo.  The biggest concern for Broncos' fans is that the take-care-of-the-football Tebow that they saw during the 7-1 stretch has morphed into the second coming of Akili Smith.  Tebow has fumbled the football three times (losing one) in the last two weeks and he threw four huge interceptions in the loss to Buffalo.  If the Chiefs can force Tebow to make mistakes, then Kyle Orton will likely get his revenge.
• The Indianapolis Colts are quickly playing themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  After winning two games in a row, they are deadlocked with the St. Louis Rams for the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  They would still own the pick, based on tiebreakers, if they end the year with the same record.  Unfortunately, the Colts have about a 50-50 chance to beat the Jaguars in Week 17, while the Rams have no chance to beat San Francisco this weekend.
• The Ravens better hope that they earn a top two seed in the AFC because I wouldn't bet on them in a road game if I was using my worst enemy's money.  Baltimore is a pristine 8-0 at home following their 20-14 victory over Cleveland, but they are only 3-4 on the road.  One of their road victories was at Pittsburgh, but they have had some ugly losses away from Chesapeake Bay.
• Congratulations to the Detroit Lions for making the playoffs for the first time since 1999.  They nearly had their season permanently implode in the middle, but they have rebounded nicely behind Matthew Stafford, who has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions during their current three-game winning streak.

Week 16 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 16 (home teams in CAPS):

COLTS over Texans
SEAHAWKS over 49ers
Broncos over BILLS
BENGALS over Cardinals
TITANS over Jaguars
CHIEFS over Raiders
PATRIOTS over Dolphins
Giants over JETS
STEELERS over Rams
REDSKINS over Vikings
PANTHERS over Buccaneers
RAVENS over Browns
Chargers over LIONS
Eagles over COWBOYS
PACKERS over Bears
SAINTS over Falcons

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 144-80

Week 15 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: The Patriots-Broncos game scored CBS their best overnight rating (19.5) in the last four years.

Stat of the week No. 2: Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have each thrown for 3,000 yards, which is the first time in NFL history that two rookies exceeded 3,000 yards.

Stat of the week No. 3: There have been 105 individual 300-yard passing performances in 2011, which is the most in a single season in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Drew Brees became the first QB in NFL history to complete 80% of his attempts, throw for 400 yards, and throw for five TDs without an interception in one game.

Stat of the week No. 5: In his 10th season, Julius Peppers recorded his seventh year with 10 or more sacks.

Week 15 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 15 (home teams in CAPS):

FALCONS over Jaguars
Cowboys over BUCCANEERS
Seahawks over BEARS
BILLS over Dolphins
Titans over COLTS
Packers over CHIEFS
Bengals over RAMS
Saints over VIKINGS
GIANTS over Redskins
TEXANS over Panthers
RAIDERS over Lions
Patriots over BRONCOS
Jets over EAGLES
CARDINALS over Browns
CHARGERS over Ravens
49ERS over Steelers

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 135-73

Week 14 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: For the first time in NFL history, four quarterbacks have 4,000 yards passing through Week 14 (Drew Brees – 4,368, Tom Brady – 4,273, Aaron Rodgers – 4,125 & Eli Manning – 4,105).

Stat of the week No. 2: On Sunday, four teams came back to win games in which they trailed by at least 12 points (Falcons – 16 points, Jaguars – 14 points, Texans – 13 points & Cardinals – 12 points).

Stat of the week No. 3: The Denver Broncos are the third team in NFL history to win six consecutive games after starting the season 2-5 or worse (1970 Bengals & 2005 Vikings).

Stat of the week No. 4: The Washington Redskins have just three winnings seasons in Dan Snyder’s 13 seasons as owner. They haven’t been to the playoffs since being a wild card team in 2007.

Stat of the week No. 5: Mike Wallace is the fourth player in Steelers history with consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons (Roy Jefferson, Plaxico Burress & Hines Ward).

Week 14 Picks

Here are my picks for week 14 (home team in CAPS):

STEELERS over Browns
RAVENS over Colts
Falcons over PANTHERS
BENGALS over Texans
Buccaneers over JAGUARS
LIONS over Vikings
JETS over Chiefs
DOLPHINS over Eagles
BRONCOS over Bears
Patriots over REDSKINS
Saints over TITANS
PACKERS over Raiders
49ers over CARDINALS
CHARGERS over Bills
COWBOYS over Giants
SEAHAWKS over Rams

Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 124-68

Three inexcusable losses and other NFL thoughts

(1)              Even though the Green Bay Packers are making it look easy, it is extremely difficult to win football games in the NFL.  Each week, teams have to overcome injuries, travel, inconsistent performance, mental mistakes and a host of other variables to claim victory.  As a result, it is imperative for NFL teams to win the games that they are “supposed” to win.  These must-win games include ones where the opponent is missing key players or the opponent is playing on a short week of preparation or the opponent has had to travel.  When teams take care of business when they are supposed to, then their margin for error is much greater when they face teams of equal or superior talent.  Unfortunately, three teams didn’t heed the warning and, as a result, suffered ugly losses that could negatively impact their ability to make the playoffs.

The most egregious loss was the 19-13 defeat suffered by the Dallas Cowboys to the Arizona Cardinals.  This defeat was especially devastating for three reasons.  First of all, the Cowboys mismanaged the end of the game situation so horribly that even Andy Reid cringed when he saw the highlights.  Dallas started the final drive with two timeouts and flew back to Texas with one still in their back pocket.  Instead, the Cowboys chose to spike the ball and allow 15-20 precious seconds to tick off the clock after completing a pass inside the Arizona 40-yard line.  It is inexcusable that none of the coaches or players had their heads in the game enough to call the timeout after the completion.  The most tragic part of the end of game sequence was that Jason Garrett decided to use one of the timeouts to ice his own kicker.  Secondly, the Cowboys have to be kicking themselves for allowing opportunity after opportunity to slip through their fingers.  They were in Cardinals’ territory on eight different occasions on Sunday and only came away with 13 points.  With the mismatch between the Dallas offense and the Arizona defense, it is amazing that the Cowboys were held to such a low point total.  Finally, the Cowboys had everything set up to put yet another nail in the New York Giants’ coffin, but they bumbled away the opportunity because of their no show in the desert.

In addition to the Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons should be embarrassed by their performance against the Houston Texans.  They had the chance to solidify their playoff position and keep the pressure on the New Orleans Saints, but squandered it to a Houston team starting their third quarterback in three weeks.  The Falcons had to overcome a hostile environment and the number two defense in the NFL, but, nonetheless, the stars were aligned for them to steal the win.  Instead, Atlanta reverted back to the pass-happy formula that was the chief culprit for their slow start to the season and it cost them dearly.  While Houston smartly implemented a game plan that emphasized the running game and protected rookie T.J. Yates, the Falcons decided to eschew their own power running game despite the fact that it was a one score game the entire way.  As a result, Matt Ryan attempted over 40 passes for the fifth time this season and saw his record in those games fall to 1-4.  After being one of the smarter head coaches in the league during his first three seasons, Mike Smith has had a year to forget.

The final example is the Chicago Bears’ inexplicable loss to the fading Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears know that no one is catching the Packers, but they needed this win to keep some distance between them and the Falcons, Lions, Giants, etc.  Even though they were playing with Caleb Hanie as their quarterback, the Bears should have found a way to win this game.  Their defense and special teams should have created enough positive field position to allow Robbie Gould to kick four or five field goals.  Instead, the Bears’ offensive day went like this: seven punts, three interceptions, one made field goal and one missed field goal.  They deserve a little benefit of the doubt because they lost their best offensive player, Matt Forte, midway through the game, which furthered diminished their offensive capability.  Nevertheless, Chicago is going to rue the day they blew this game.

(2)  With four weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFC playoff picture has developed a clear dichotomy between the teams at the top and the teams fighting for the final three playoff berths.  With a win or a San Francisco loss, the Packers will clinch the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  There is no doubt that Green Bay will earn the top seed.  There is a little more intrigue in the race for the second first-round bye between New Orleans and San Francisco.  Only one game separates the two teams, but the 49ers currently own the tiebreaker with a better conference record and they have an easier schedule with upcoming games against Arizona, Seattle & St. Louis.  As a result, San Francisco will earn the second seed, while New Orleans will have to settle for the third seed and a home game during Wild Card weekend.  After the chalk of the conference, the NFC playoff picture gets extremely muddled.  Right now, the Cowboys, Bears and Falcons are holding on to the final three spots, but it doesn’t feel like Chicago is going to be able to overcome the loss of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte down the stretch.  Unfortunately, the teams on the outside looking in don’t inspire confidence either.  The Giants and Lions are heading in the wrong direction, while the Seahawks seem to be playing better but they may have waited too long to make a move.  In the end, it feels like the Lions are going to be able to snatch the sixth and final spot behind Atlanta and Dallas.  There is really no rhyme or reason for this choice other than a gut feeling.

            In the AFC, the playoff picture is about as clear as tinted windows.  There are four teams at 9-3 and five teams at 7-5.  Right now, New England holds the top seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston and the conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore.  Outside of a road trip to Denver, the Patriots seem to have a very manageable schedule especially when you consider they have the top coach and quarterback in the AFC.  As a result, the Patriots will end the season as the AFC East Division champs and the top seed in the conference.  Below them, Baltimore will take advantage of a favorable schedule to earn the other first round bye, which means they will host a playoff game for the first time in the John Harbaugh era.  With a two-game lead over Tennessee, the Texans will ride their outstanding defense and dynamic running game to the AFC South title and the third seed.  Rounding out the AFC playoff picture, the Broncos will continue to ride the Tebow magic carpet to the AFC West title, while the Oakland Raiders watch their promising season go up in smoke thanks to a host of recent injuries.  As far as the wild cards, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have locked up the fifth seed.  The sixth and final spot will go to the N.Y. Jets as they make another late season run to the postseason.

(3) Quick Hits

• The Seahawks put together their most complete performance of the season with a 31-14 victory over the reeling Eagles.  It is true that Philly didn’t help itself too much, but the Hawks showed that they have the potential to be a competent football team.  It is too bad that the Hawks blew a 17-7 fourth quarter lead against Washington a week prior because they would be right in the thick of the NFC playoff race instead of on the periphery.
•  The Titans are playing great football thanks to finding their lost running game over the last four weeks.  Chris Johnson has run for 130 yards or more in three of the last four weeks after gaining 100 yards just once through the first eight weeks.  Unfortunately, the Titans have to face the sizzling New Orleans Saints, which will likely put a halt to Tennessee’s playoff dreams.
•  The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes after starting the year with seven consecutive defeats.  However, over the last five weeks, the Fins are a bad snap away from being undefeated.  The keys to the hot streak has been more than competent quarterback play from Matt Moore, a rediscovered running game led by Reggie Bush and a resurgent defense.  The Dolphins are averaging nearly 28 points per game after starting the year scoring only 15 points per game.
• The last time the Giants faced an undefeated juggernaut they lost 38-35 in a spirited week 17 tilt with the New England Patriots.  The competitive loss triggered an impressive 4-0 run through the playoffs, including a 17-14 upset of the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.  Will the latest 38-35 setback unleash a string of victories for New York? 
• Do you think Shad Khan is having buyer’s remorse in Jacksonville?  Fresh off the news of his imminent purchase of the team, the Jaguars laid a gigantic egg on national television.  While Maurice Jones-Drew continued to show that he is the only legitimate offensive weapon that the Jags possess, Khan surely made note of the struggles at the quarterback position and a defense that was clearly outclassed by the San Diego offense.

Week 13 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Tony Gonzalez reached 60 receptions for the 13th consecutive season, which is an NFL record.  He also has a reception in 175 consecutive games, which is the NFL's longest active streak.

Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady became the sixth player in NFL history to throw at least 30 touchdown passes at least three times in a career.  Rob Gronkowski became the first tight end since the merger to have at least two receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in the same game.  The Patriots clinched a winning record for the 11th consecutive season.

Stat of the week No. 3: Since Philip Rivers became the starting quarterback in 2006, the Chargers are 21-2 in December and Rivers has thrown for 43 touchdowns.  In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys are only 8-11 in games started by Tony Romo in December.

Stat of the week No. 4: Green Bay joined seven other teams in NFL history to have won 18 consecutive games.  Only the 2003-2004 Patriots have won more (21 straight).

Stat of the week No. 5: Tim Tebow is only the 8th player in NFL history with at least 13 touchdown passes and nine touchdown rushes through their first two years in the league.

Week 13 Picks

Here are my picks for week 13 (home team in CAPS):

SEAHAWKS over Eagles
Titans over BILLS
BEARS over Chiefs
DOLPHINS over Raiders
Broncos over VIKINGS
PATRIOTS over Colts
STEELERS over Bengals
Panthers over BUCCANEERS
Jets over REDSKINS
Falcons over TEXANS
Ravens over BROWNS
Packers over GIANTS
Cowboys over CARDINALS
49ERS over Rams
SAINTS over Lions
JAGUARS over Chargers

Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 112-64