Preview
The New England Patriots should have no fear playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Tom Brady took over the starting quarterback position in 2001, the Patriots have beaten the Steelers six times out of eight opportunities, including two conference championship victories. In their two defeats, Brady was present and accounted for in only one of them, a 14-point regular season loss in 2004, while Pittsburgh destroyed New England back in 2008 with Matt Cassel as the starter. Despite the measure of historical dominance, the game that will be most illustrative about this year’s match-up would be last year’s 13-point road victory for the Patriots. If you remember, New England dominated the Steelers for most of the game behind a masterful performance from Brady and his receivers. Specifically, Brady dominated the Steel Curtain defense underneath with Wes Welker and in the seam with Rob Gronkowski. Ultimately, the connection with Gronkowski proved to be the back-breaker for the Steelers as Brady connected with his rookie tight end for three touchdowns that appeared to occur on the exact same play call. It is safe to say that the Steelers will be tested once again by the Patriots’ passing attack despite the fact that they enter this game as the number one ranked passing defense in total passing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed. It would seem obvious, based on their success from last season, to expect the Patriots to attack the Steelers again with their two-headed monster at tight end, but such a simplistic notion would be selling Bill Belichick short. Brady is obviously a gifted signal-caller, who has an uncanny ability to maximize the talent around him, but one of the underrated aspects of this Patriots’ team is their ability to run the football. They don’t have a featured back, but the trio of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead are good enough to do damage on the ground especially when the Patriots employ the spread formations that they seem to like so much. Since their week three loss to Buffalo, the Patriots have averaged 145.3 yards rushing per game. With the New England ground game rounding into shape and the Steelers’ rush defense looking vulnerable, the Patriots have an opportunity to create a lot of yards running the football. Controlling the game on the ground has two benefits: (1) protects Brady from a pass rush that ranks fourth in the NFL with 17 sacks and (2) keeps their horrible pass defense on the sideline. It goes without saying that the Patriots are going to spread out the Steelers in an attempt to take advantage of their age on defense, but the types of plays that they run out of their spread formations will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.
The Steelers are on a bit of a roll right now, but the Patriots will be the best football team they have faced since opening day against Baltimore and we all remember what happened against the Ravens. Although the New England offense will challenge the Steelers, the Patriots’ defense looks like it will be in for a long day against the high-flying Pittsburgh offense. The Patriots are dead-last in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and yards per attempt allowed, which should have Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace licking their chops. Outside of a really strong day against Mark Sanchez, the New England defense has allowed nearly 360 yards passing per game. Their ability to attack the vulnerable Patriots’ secondary gives the Steelers the best chance to win this game. Since the expectation is that Roethlisberger is going to be dropping back 40 times or so in this game, it is paramount that the Pittsburgh offensive line keep their quarterback relatively clean. The Steelers have allowed 20 sacks on the season, which doesn’t include all of the times that Big Ben has narrowly avoided a potential sack with his size and/or athletic ability. In addition, if Roethlisberger feels protected on Sunday, then it will reduce the chances that he will have another turnover-fest like we saw on opening day. Fortunately, the Patriots have not shown themselves to be very adept at rushing the passer, but you can bet your life savings that Belichick will cook up a scheme that will create some pressure on Big Ben. The coaching match-up between Mike Tomlin and Belichick will also be an important factor to focus on during this game. It will pit Tomlin’s quiet confidence in his guys and his game plan against the Belichick’s ability to find the chinks in the armor of his opponents and exploit them to his advantage. Both guys have had a lot of success with their style of coaching, but the extra week of preparation tilts the playing field slightly in Belichick’s direction. The extra time to watch tape and analyze Pittsburgh’s tendencies will likely lead to a game plan that will mask the Patriots’ deficiencies while maximizing their strengths.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have had trouble holding on to the football. The Patriots turned the ball over four times in their only loss and another four times during a near-loss to Dallas. The Steelers have eight of their 12 turnovers in their two losses. The advantage goes to New England for two reasons: (1) Big Ben has a penchant for giving the ball away due to his willingness to hold onto the ball until the very last second and (2) the Patriots’ defense has been much better at creating turnovers.
2. First team to 30 points wins – The Patriots have scored 30+ points in five out of six games. The Steelers have scored 24 or less points in five out of seven games. The Steelers may have the better big play potential, but New England is superior in the red zone due to options like Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski. Neither defense is going to stop the opposing offenses from scoring too often, but the Patriots’ will put the ball in the end zone more than Pittsburgh.
3. Avoid big plays – The Roethlisberger-Wallace connection has become the best deep threat combo in the NFL. They already have 81-yard and 95-yard touchdowns this year. The Patriots cannot allow Wallace to beat them deep. Look for New England to force the Steelers to sustain long drives in order to score points. The hope with this strategy is that Big Ben becomes frustrated and starts forcing the football into tight spaces, which should lead to turnover opportunities.
Prediction
New England 31 – Pittsburgh 24
Friday, October 28, 2011
Week Eight Picks
Here are my picks for week eight (home teams in CAPS):
TITANS over Colts
Saints over RAMS
GIANTS over Dolphins
PANTHERS over Vikings
RAVENS over Cardinals
TEXANS over Jaguars
BILLS over Redskins
Lions over BRONCOS
Patriots over STEELERS
49ERS over Browns
Bengals over SEAHAWKS
EAGLES over Cowboys
CHIEFS over Chargers
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 66-37
TITANS over Colts
Saints over RAMS
GIANTS over Dolphins
PANTHERS over Vikings
RAVENS over Cardinals
TEXANS over Jaguars
BILLS over Redskins
Lions over BRONCOS
Patriots over STEELERS
49ERS over Browns
Bengals over SEAHAWKS
EAGLES over Cowboys
CHIEFS over Chargers
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 66-37
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Week Seven Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Drew Brees threw for more than 300 yards and five touchdowns without an interception for the third time in his career, joining Tom Brady as the only players since 1970 to accomplish the feat at least three times (Brady has done it four times).
Stat of the week No. 2: Arian Foster became just the fourth player since the merger to run for 100 yards, have 100 receiving yards and score three touchdowns in the same game (2007- Brian Westbrook, 2002 – Priest Holmes, 1973 – Larry Brown).
Stat of the week No. 3: Denver Broncos are the first team since 1970 to come-from-behind to win after trailing by 15 or more points with three minutes remaining in a game.
Stat of the week No. 4: Since Art Monk retired as the NFL’s leader in receptions after the 1995 season, 11 players have passed him, including Derrick Mason this past Sunday.
Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton has seven rushing touchdowns, which is two more than Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams combined.
Bonus Stat of the Week: In four career starts, Tim Tebow has two fourth-quarter comebacks from at least 13 points down. The same number John Elway had in 231 career starts.
Stat of the week No. 2: Arian Foster became just the fourth player since the merger to run for 100 yards, have 100 receiving yards and score three touchdowns in the same game (2007- Brian Westbrook, 2002 – Priest Holmes, 1973 – Larry Brown).
Stat of the week No. 3: Denver Broncos are the first team since 1970 to come-from-behind to win after trailing by 15 or more points with three minutes remaining in a game.
Stat of the week No. 4: Since Art Monk retired as the NFL’s leader in receptions after the 1995 season, 11 players have passed him, including Derrick Mason this past Sunday.
Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton has seven rushing touchdowns, which is two more than Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams combined.
Bonus Stat of the Week: In four career starts, Tim Tebow has two fourth-quarter comebacks from at least 13 points down. The same number John Elway had in 231 career starts.
The Falcons rounding into form and other NFL thoughts
(1) The Atlanta Falcons still don’t look like the Super Bowl contender that many people expected them to be at the beginning of the season, but they have shown a great deal of grittiness and determination over the last few weeks to turn around a very slow start. On paper, this version of the Falcons doesn’t seem to do anything particularly well, but they have reverted to an identity that has worked well for them in the past: a balanced offense led by the running game. In their three losses, the Falcons have averaged nearly 2.5 more pass attempts than running plays. Even though Matt Ryan is a better quarterback in his fourth year and they have added an elite playmaker in Julio Jones, the Falcons should not be throwing the ball an average of 42 times per game. Atlanta has been at its best over the last three plus seasons when they relied on a heavy dose of Michael Turner to soften up defenses and set-up the play action passing game. In their victories, it is clear from the numbers that the Falcons have focused much more on the running game, which has reduced the pressure on Ryan and paid dividends in the standings. When they have won this season, the Falcons have averaged sixty more yards rushing than in their losses and they have had essentially a 50-50 split between passes and runs. The bigger impact of the balanced offense has been a huge reduction in turnovers. One of the major reasons that the Falcons have lost three games is that they have turned the ball over, on average, nearly three times in those ballgames. Without the security of the running game, Ryan has had to drop back way too many times behind shaky pass protection, which has led to a far greater number of giveaways than expected. When Ryan and the pass blockers have been shielded by an effective rush attack, the Falcons have averaged only one turnover per game. This is the team that we have become accustomed to seeing over the last three seasons. This is the team that has averaged 11 victories in the last three years behind a power running game and steady quarterback play. This is the team that should have their rivals in the NFC South worried that the Super Bowl contender that we all envisioned has finally been awakened.
(2) Personally, I don’t get the excessive hype surrounding or the vitriol directed at Tim Tebow. Both extremes don’t do the kid any justice. It is great that he is the type of guy that you would like your daughter to date. It is great that his legend is as big as the state of Florida. It is great that his list of intangibles make the heads of teammates, coaches and personnel people spin. Does it mean that we have to spend countless hours fawning over, dissecting and/or criticizing a guy that has accomplished very little in the NFL? I would like someone to wake me when his acute case of the happy feet is cured or when he can consistently and accurately throw all of the routes that NFL quarterbacks have to throw in order to be successful or when his first instinct isn’t to tuck and run. Call me old school, but I just think that athletes need to accomplish something beyond being a cult hero in order to deserve all of the extra attention. It is the same reason that I can’t stand all of the attention that Danica Patrick receives or that Anna Kournikova got back in the day. What has Tebow accomplished since becoming a professional football player besides being the most popular back-up quarterback in NFL history? I believe that the hype surrounding Tebow is one of the major reasons why a percentage of football fans have to cover their mouths when they hear his name for fear of throwing up their lunch. Tebow didn’t ask to be covered by the media in this over-the-top fashion, but he still has to live with the repercussions. From all accounts, he has never tried to agitate for the starting job in Denver. Frankly, he has gone out of his way to downplay the controversy and be completely supportive of the Denver organization. Unfortunately, being the good solider had done nothing to change certain people’s perception of Tebow. The reason that people still “hate” him despite his best efforts is because he has cultivated an image that is easy to resent. He is the religious missionary do-gooder, who is saving himself for marriage and always says please and thank you. A segment of the population cannot stand anyone that presents themselves in such a perfect light. These “haters” are praying for his downfall, so that they can all point fingers and tell us ‘I told you so.’ Unfortunately, none of the things that people spend the most time talking about in regards to Tebow have anything to do with his ability to play football. The general public needs to spend less time analyzing Tebow the person and more time talking about Tebow the player. It is irrefutable that he is a winner, but that character trait alone will not guarantee success in the NFL. My plea is that we tone down the personal attacks and the doomsday predictions of his ability to succeed and allow the drama to play out on its own.
(3) Quick Hits
• The hottest seat in the NFL still belongs to Tony Sparano, but Jim Caldwell is zooming up the charts following the Colts’ disgraceful display on national television on Sunday Night football. It looked to me like the Colts had quit in certain spots, which is the biggest indictment of a coach that you can find.
• DeMarco Murray submitted the 10th best rushing performance in NFL history and looks ready to carve out a significant role in the Dallas offense. Felix Jones is still the starter, but if he cannot stay healthy he might find his position usurped by Murray.
• The start of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota wasn’t perfect, but it provided a glimpse of what Vikings’ fans can look forward to over the next 3-4 years: dominant running from Adrian Peterson and heady quarterback play from Ponder.
• The shine is officially off Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee. After posting a QB rating of 93 or higher during the Titans’ 3-1 start to the season, Hasselbeck has looked putrid over the last two weeks culminating with disastrous performance against the Houston Texans at home following a bye. With a few more stinkers like this one, the Titans will be rolling out the red carpet on the Jake Locker era.
• The Steelers are rolling right now and their 2-2 start is all but a distant memory. Their defense is starting to play up to their reputation and their offense is building a big-play personality behind Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace. Their recent stellar play comes at the right time as the Steelers head into a six week stretch where they play New England, Baltimore, Kansas City and Cincinnati (twice). This portion of their schedule will define whether the Steelers are truly a playoff team or just a pretender.
(2) Personally, I don’t get the excessive hype surrounding or the vitriol directed at Tim Tebow. Both extremes don’t do the kid any justice. It is great that he is the type of guy that you would like your daughter to date. It is great that his legend is as big as the state of Florida. It is great that his list of intangibles make the heads of teammates, coaches and personnel people spin. Does it mean that we have to spend countless hours fawning over, dissecting and/or criticizing a guy that has accomplished very little in the NFL? I would like someone to wake me when his acute case of the happy feet is cured or when he can consistently and accurately throw all of the routes that NFL quarterbacks have to throw in order to be successful or when his first instinct isn’t to tuck and run. Call me old school, but I just think that athletes need to accomplish something beyond being a cult hero in order to deserve all of the extra attention. It is the same reason that I can’t stand all of the attention that Danica Patrick receives or that Anna Kournikova got back in the day. What has Tebow accomplished since becoming a professional football player besides being the most popular back-up quarterback in NFL history? I believe that the hype surrounding Tebow is one of the major reasons why a percentage of football fans have to cover their mouths when they hear his name for fear of throwing up their lunch. Tebow didn’t ask to be covered by the media in this over-the-top fashion, but he still has to live with the repercussions. From all accounts, he has never tried to agitate for the starting job in Denver. Frankly, he has gone out of his way to downplay the controversy and be completely supportive of the Denver organization. Unfortunately, being the good solider had done nothing to change certain people’s perception of Tebow. The reason that people still “hate” him despite his best efforts is because he has cultivated an image that is easy to resent. He is the religious missionary do-gooder, who is saving himself for marriage and always says please and thank you. A segment of the population cannot stand anyone that presents themselves in such a perfect light. These “haters” are praying for his downfall, so that they can all point fingers and tell us ‘I told you so.’ Unfortunately, none of the things that people spend the most time talking about in regards to Tebow have anything to do with his ability to play football. The general public needs to spend less time analyzing Tebow the person and more time talking about Tebow the player. It is irrefutable that he is a winner, but that character trait alone will not guarantee success in the NFL. My plea is that we tone down the personal attacks and the doomsday predictions of his ability to succeed and allow the drama to play out on its own.
(3) Quick Hits
• The hottest seat in the NFL still belongs to Tony Sparano, but Jim Caldwell is zooming up the charts following the Colts’ disgraceful display on national television on Sunday Night football. It looked to me like the Colts had quit in certain spots, which is the biggest indictment of a coach that you can find.
• DeMarco Murray submitted the 10th best rushing performance in NFL history and looks ready to carve out a significant role in the Dallas offense. Felix Jones is still the starter, but if he cannot stay healthy he might find his position usurped by Murray.
• The start of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota wasn’t perfect, but it provided a glimpse of what Vikings’ fans can look forward to over the next 3-4 years: dominant running from Adrian Peterson and heady quarterback play from Ponder.
• The shine is officially off Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee. After posting a QB rating of 93 or higher during the Titans’ 3-1 start to the season, Hasselbeck has looked putrid over the last two weeks culminating with disastrous performance against the Houston Texans at home following a bye. With a few more stinkers like this one, the Titans will be rolling out the red carpet on the Jake Locker era.
• The Steelers are rolling right now and their 2-2 start is all but a distant memory. Their defense is starting to play up to their reputation and their offense is building a big-play personality behind Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace. Their recent stellar play comes at the right time as the Steelers head into a six week stretch where they play New England, Baltimore, Kansas City and Cincinnati (twice). This portion of their schedule will define whether the Steelers are truly a playoff team or just a pretender.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: San Diego at New York
Preview
The San Diego Chargers have had a fast start to a season for one of the few times in the Norv Turner era, but the impressive record has largely been built against the bottom tier of teams in the NFL. Starting with this week’s match-up with the Jets, the Chargers face teams with a .500 record or better in eight of the last 11 weeks. The big question for San Diego is still related to their ability to finish the season strong. On paper, the Chargers appear to have a lot of the characteristics of an 11- or 12-win team. First of all, they have a top 10 offense led by a preseason MVP candidate at quarterback. Philip Rivers hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, but you have to figure that things are going to start tilting in the other direction for the Pro Bowl quarterback. Secondly, there is no team in the NFL better than the Chargers at converting third down opportunities and keeping drives alive. San Diego has converted an astounding 56.5% of their third downs, which they have accomplished largely without any contributions from Antonio Gates. Finally, the Chargers have a strong defensive unit especially against the pass. Unfortunately, there are a couple of problem areas that could undermine their success on offense and defense similarly to their special teams’ breakdowns in 2010. The biggest area of concern has to be the -5 turnover differential. The most significant contributing factor to the awful turnover ratio has been Rivers’ inability to protect the football. Rivers has turned the ball over nine times (7 interceptions and two fumbles lost). The other area of concern, the Chargers’ inability to protect the quarterback, is probably one of the major reasons why Rivers has such a high number of giveaways this season. The silver lining is that San Diego has won four out of five games despite their offensive struggles. The optimist would say that it is a good sign for their mental toughness that they have been able to find ways to win games despite playing less than perfect football. The naysayers would counter by stating that the Chargers’ subpar efforts are good enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but are going to come up woefully short when the schedule gets tougher.
The Jets, on the other hand, don’t have a lot of positives to hang their hat on this year. They have gone from being a popular pick to win the AFC East and make a Super Bowl run to a team that has lost its identity in the midst of poor play and a deteriorating locker room environment. The team from the last two seasons that wanted to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense has largely disappeared in 2011. The injury to Nick Mangold has obviously had an impact on New York’s entire offense, but they should still be better than the 31st ranked rushing offense. The same can be said for the Jets’ defense, which has been carved up on a regular basis by opposing running games and enters Sunday’s match-up as the 28th ranked run defense. Ultimately, the Jets are going to have to assume the “Ground & Pound” persona again because Mark Sanchez and the talent at wide receiver are not ready to make the shift to being a primarily passing team. On the bright side, the Jets have a couple of positives on the defensive side of the ball that they can lean on while they work to correct their flaws. First of all, they have been one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. You could say that their lofty ranking is the result of their opponents eschewing the pass to run the ball down their throats, but the presence of stellar defenders like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie makes it feel like this is a legitimate strength of the New York defense. Secondly, the Jets have done a fine job sacking the quarterback through the first quarter of the season. More important than the 17 sacks is the fact that the Jets have had 10 different players register at least ½ a sack. Often times, an elite pass rusher can be neutralized by the opposing team’s offensive scheme, but a team, like the Jets, that can bring pressure with a variety of bodies is much harder to defend. The Jets were able to flex their lost muscle on Monday night against the woeful Dolphins, but San Diego is going to provide a whole different level of competition.
Keys to the Game
1. Third Down Efficiency – This game pits the best offense (San Diego) at converting third down opportunities against the best defense (New York) at preventing third downs from being converted. As the saying goes, something has to give. If the Chargers continue to convert at their present rate, then they will win this game in dominating fashion. The Jets’ best chance to win involves forcing their will upon the Chargers, especially on third down.
2. Protecting the quarterback – Neither of these teams has done a particularly good job of protecting the quarterback. The difference is that the Jets have a much more accomplished pass rush than the Chargers. New York has a clear advantage in this area, so they must continue to pressure the passer.
3. Control Rivers – The other strength of the Jets’ defense is their pass defense. Although they have a decent running game, the Chargers clearly want to lead with the pass. The Jets have to make sure that Vincent Jackson’s visit to Revis Island is an unpleasant one. Jackson is the Chargers’ best deep threat, so shutting him down will force San Diego to mount long, sustained drives, which increases the opportunities to create turnovers.
Prediction
San Diego 24 – New York Jets 20
The San Diego Chargers have had a fast start to a season for one of the few times in the Norv Turner era, but the impressive record has largely been built against the bottom tier of teams in the NFL. Starting with this week’s match-up with the Jets, the Chargers face teams with a .500 record or better in eight of the last 11 weeks. The big question for San Diego is still related to their ability to finish the season strong. On paper, the Chargers appear to have a lot of the characteristics of an 11- or 12-win team. First of all, they have a top 10 offense led by a preseason MVP candidate at quarterback. Philip Rivers hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, but you have to figure that things are going to start tilting in the other direction for the Pro Bowl quarterback. Secondly, there is no team in the NFL better than the Chargers at converting third down opportunities and keeping drives alive. San Diego has converted an astounding 56.5% of their third downs, which they have accomplished largely without any contributions from Antonio Gates. Finally, the Chargers have a strong defensive unit especially against the pass. Unfortunately, there are a couple of problem areas that could undermine their success on offense and defense similarly to their special teams’ breakdowns in 2010. The biggest area of concern has to be the -5 turnover differential. The most significant contributing factor to the awful turnover ratio has been Rivers’ inability to protect the football. Rivers has turned the ball over nine times (7 interceptions and two fumbles lost). The other area of concern, the Chargers’ inability to protect the quarterback, is probably one of the major reasons why Rivers has such a high number of giveaways this season. The silver lining is that San Diego has won four out of five games despite their offensive struggles. The optimist would say that it is a good sign for their mental toughness that they have been able to find ways to win games despite playing less than perfect football. The naysayers would counter by stating that the Chargers’ subpar efforts are good enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but are going to come up woefully short when the schedule gets tougher.
The Jets, on the other hand, don’t have a lot of positives to hang their hat on this year. They have gone from being a popular pick to win the AFC East and make a Super Bowl run to a team that has lost its identity in the midst of poor play and a deteriorating locker room environment. The team from the last two seasons that wanted to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense has largely disappeared in 2011. The injury to Nick Mangold has obviously had an impact on New York’s entire offense, but they should still be better than the 31st ranked rushing offense. The same can be said for the Jets’ defense, which has been carved up on a regular basis by opposing running games and enters Sunday’s match-up as the 28th ranked run defense. Ultimately, the Jets are going to have to assume the “Ground & Pound” persona again because Mark Sanchez and the talent at wide receiver are not ready to make the shift to being a primarily passing team. On the bright side, the Jets have a couple of positives on the defensive side of the ball that they can lean on while they work to correct their flaws. First of all, they have been one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. You could say that their lofty ranking is the result of their opponents eschewing the pass to run the ball down their throats, but the presence of stellar defenders like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie makes it feel like this is a legitimate strength of the New York defense. Secondly, the Jets have done a fine job sacking the quarterback through the first quarter of the season. More important than the 17 sacks is the fact that the Jets have had 10 different players register at least ½ a sack. Often times, an elite pass rusher can be neutralized by the opposing team’s offensive scheme, but a team, like the Jets, that can bring pressure with a variety of bodies is much harder to defend. The Jets were able to flex their lost muscle on Monday night against the woeful Dolphins, but San Diego is going to provide a whole different level of competition.
Keys to the Game
1. Third Down Efficiency – This game pits the best offense (San Diego) at converting third down opportunities against the best defense (New York) at preventing third downs from being converted. As the saying goes, something has to give. If the Chargers continue to convert at their present rate, then they will win this game in dominating fashion. The Jets’ best chance to win involves forcing their will upon the Chargers, especially on third down.
2. Protecting the quarterback – Neither of these teams has done a particularly good job of protecting the quarterback. The difference is that the Jets have a much more accomplished pass rush than the Chargers. New York has a clear advantage in this area, so they must continue to pressure the passer.
3. Control Rivers – The other strength of the Jets’ defense is their pass defense. Although they have a decent running game, the Chargers clearly want to lead with the pass. The Jets have to make sure that Vincent Jackson’s visit to Revis Island is an unpleasant one. Jackson is the Chargers’ best deep threat, so shutting him down will force San Diego to mount long, sustained drives, which increases the opportunities to create turnovers.
Prediction
San Diego 24 – New York Jets 20
Week Seven Picks
Here are my picks for week seven (home teams in CAPS):
Chargers over JETS
Seahawks over BROWNS
LIONS over Falcons
BUCCANEERS over Bears
Broncos over DOLPHINS
PANTHERS over Redskins
TITANS over Texans
Steelers over CARDINALS
RAIDERS over Chiefs
Packers over VIKINGS
COWBOYS over Rams
SAINTS over Colts
Ravens over JAGUARS
Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 60-30
Chargers over JETS
Seahawks over BROWNS
LIONS over Falcons
BUCCANEERS over Bears
Broncos over DOLPHINS
PANTHERS over Redskins
TITANS over Texans
Steelers over CARDINALS
RAIDERS over Chiefs
Packers over VIKINGS
COWBOYS over Rams
SAINTS over Colts
Ravens over JAGUARS
Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 60-30
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Week Six Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: The Detroit Lions’ last two opponents at Ford Field, the 49ers and the Bears, committed 14 false start penalties.
Stat of the week No. 2: The Packers are 6-0 for the first time since 1965. They are the seventh defending champ to start at least 6-0 and the first since the 2007 Colts. They are the fourth defending champ to be the NFL’s final unbeaten team (1998 Broncos – won the Super Bowl, 1990 49ers – lost in NFC Championship Game, 1986 Bears – lost in Divisional Playoffs).
Stat of the week No. 3: Ray Lewis is the only player in NFL history to amass 40 sacks and 30 interceptions in a career.
Stat of the week No. 4: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are now tied with Dan Marino and Don Shula for the most wins by a QB/Head Coach tandem with 116 wins.
Stat of the week No. 5: Jimmy Graham joined Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends in NFL history to have four consecutive 100-yard receiving games in a single season.
Stat of the week No. 2: The Packers are 6-0 for the first time since 1965. They are the seventh defending champ to start at least 6-0 and the first since the 2007 Colts. They are the fourth defending champ to be the NFL’s final unbeaten team (1998 Broncos – won the Super Bowl, 1990 49ers – lost in NFC Championship Game, 1986 Bears – lost in Divisional Playoffs).
Stat of the week No. 3: Ray Lewis is the only player in NFL history to amass 40 sacks and 30 interceptions in a career.
Stat of the week No. 4: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are now tied with Dan Marino and Don Shula for the most wins by a QB/Head Coach tandem with 116 wins.
Stat of the week No. 5: Jimmy Graham joined Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends in NFL history to have four consecutive 100-yard receiving games in a single season.
Harbaugh's histrionics and other NFL thoughts
(1) After the amazing start to his NFL head coaching career, there is little doubt that Jim Harbaugh is one heck of a coach. The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the laughing stock of the NFL prior to Harbaugh’s arrival and he has them poised to be a division winner and possible a top-two seed in his first year. Unfortunately, Harbaugh has left little doubt that he has no use for class, protocol or anything else that professional football coaches extend to each other. His over the top post-game handshake with Jim Schwartz was just the latest example of his disdain for his opponents. Frankly, throughout his time as a head coach, Harbaugh has come across as a huge jerk that doesn’t care about the impact of his words or his actions. When he was first hired at Stanford, he made statements about Pete Carroll leaving USC within a year, which was an obvious tactic to hurt the recruiting machine that Carroll had built in Troy. He later made disparaging comments about the academic standards of his alma mater, Michigan, which were supported by fact but were nonetheless unnecessary. Finally, he made postgame remarks to his team, following last year’s 41-0 drubbing of the Washington Huskies, in regards to kicking the ass of the “highest-paid coaching staff around.”
Harbaugh’s supporters would say that these are examples of his ultra-competitiveness getting the best of him. In my opinion, that is only an excuse for a guy that makes these statements in a purposeful way to ruffle the feathers of his rivals. My advice to Harbaugh would be to shut his mouth and tone down his antics, so that the success of his football teams is the main attraction rather than the actions of the head coach. It is a shame that we are focusing on the infantile confrontation between two NFL coaches rather than an excellent football game played between the Detroit Lions and the 49ers. The focus today should be about San Francisco’s ability to take the Lions’ best shot and still come away victorious on the road. We should be talking about Frank Gore’s outstanding day on the ground and the stifling defensive effort led by Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Instead, we are talking about Harbaugh’s ridiculous attempt to show up his peer and Schwartz’s equally childish attempts to chase Harbaugh into the locker room and start a fight. Unfortunately, as long as Harbaugh continues to win, he isn’t going to stop his pompous routine because he doesn’t care about anyone that doesn’t work for the 49ers’ franchise. The only way to stop him is to beat him so badly on a regular basis that the York family has no choice but to fire him. Based on his track record, I think that is wishful thinking.
(2) The Washington Redskins are blowing an opportunity to take control of the NFC East because they have one of the three worst quarterback situations in the National Football League. It should come as no surprise that the Skins are struggling at the quarterback position considering the options that they started the season with, but their deficiencies at this key position have been magnified by the fact that their division is eminently winnable. The New York Giants have been beset by injuries and can be best described as up-and-down. The Dallas Cowboys are a disaster waiting to happen and the Philadelphia Eagles have failed miserably in their attempt to build their own fantasy football team. Unfortunately, Washington is blowing their chance because they foolishly decided to go all in with Rex Grossman as their starter and John Beck as the back-up quarterback. The Washington coaching staff wanted us to believe that they really liked what they had at quarterback, but everyone could see that their choice wasn’t going to work out well. It was amazing to me that the Redskins’ brain trust didn’t seem to remember that Grossman’s best NFL days involved riding an elite defense’s coattails to the 2006 Super Bowl. Other than a few good moments during the 2005 season and resulting playoff run, Grossman’s NFL career can be summed up in one word: bleh. They also didn’t seem to notice that Beck hadn’t had anything remotely close to a good day in the NFL. Nevertheless, the Skins rolled the dice that Sexy Rexy could rekindle his glory days when he tried to not make mistakes and allowed his dominant defense to win games. Instead, Grossman has turned the ball over 11 times in five games and has basically wasted a defense that is allowing only 16.6 points per game. He has saved his worst performances for the times that Washington has lost this year with over half of his turnovers coming in those two games. The Redskins lost by two points to Dallas and by seven points to Philadelphia, when Grossman threw three interceptions inside the Eagles’ 30-yard line, so it is safe to say that the Redskins have been just a Grossman away from being undefeated. Now, Mike Shanahan is in the unenviable position of having to choose between two flawed choices to lead his team into their next game. As a result of their huge disadvantage at quarterback, I predict that the Skins will be watching the playoffs yet again instead of participating in them.
(3) With the early success of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez and the impressive debuts of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, I think it is time for the Minnesota Vikings to hand over the starting quarterback job to Christian Ponder. Honestly, I’m not sure why it has taken six weeks to even get to the point where Ponder is a viable candidate to run the show. Anyone that has watched Donovan McNabb play this year can see that he has lost his fastball completely, so he probably should have been replaced a couple of weeks ago when any magic that Ponder could have mustered might have been able to save the Vikings’ season. At this point, Minnesota has nothing other than pride to play for, so Leslie Frazier should make the switch to his rookie quarterback. He will be throwing his youngster to the wolves against the defending Super Bowl champs this Sunday, but a week eight match-up in Carolina and a week nine bye should allow Ponder to get better acclimated to being an NFL quarterback. In the best case scenario, Ponder has some early success a la Andy Dalton and the Vikings win a few games that they would have lost with McNabb short-hopping throws to open receivers. In the worst case scenario, Minnesota continues to lose but Ponder earns some valuable experience like Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville. Either way, the Vikings are finding out what they have in the future right now instead of blindly handing the football to McNabb on a weekly basis as he kills the spirit of his teammates’ and fans’. The sad part is that a classy veteran like McNabb is going to finally have to face the facts that he is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has to decide whether or not he wants to hold a clipboard for the next couple of years and collect a few more checks or if he wants to hang up the cleats with his pride still intact.
Harbaugh’s supporters would say that these are examples of his ultra-competitiveness getting the best of him. In my opinion, that is only an excuse for a guy that makes these statements in a purposeful way to ruffle the feathers of his rivals. My advice to Harbaugh would be to shut his mouth and tone down his antics, so that the success of his football teams is the main attraction rather than the actions of the head coach. It is a shame that we are focusing on the infantile confrontation between two NFL coaches rather than an excellent football game played between the Detroit Lions and the 49ers. The focus today should be about San Francisco’s ability to take the Lions’ best shot and still come away victorious on the road. We should be talking about Frank Gore’s outstanding day on the ground and the stifling defensive effort led by Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Instead, we are talking about Harbaugh’s ridiculous attempt to show up his peer and Schwartz’s equally childish attempts to chase Harbaugh into the locker room and start a fight. Unfortunately, as long as Harbaugh continues to win, he isn’t going to stop his pompous routine because he doesn’t care about anyone that doesn’t work for the 49ers’ franchise. The only way to stop him is to beat him so badly on a regular basis that the York family has no choice but to fire him. Based on his track record, I think that is wishful thinking.
(2) The Washington Redskins are blowing an opportunity to take control of the NFC East because they have one of the three worst quarterback situations in the National Football League. It should come as no surprise that the Skins are struggling at the quarterback position considering the options that they started the season with, but their deficiencies at this key position have been magnified by the fact that their division is eminently winnable. The New York Giants have been beset by injuries and can be best described as up-and-down. The Dallas Cowboys are a disaster waiting to happen and the Philadelphia Eagles have failed miserably in their attempt to build their own fantasy football team. Unfortunately, Washington is blowing their chance because they foolishly decided to go all in with Rex Grossman as their starter and John Beck as the back-up quarterback. The Washington coaching staff wanted us to believe that they really liked what they had at quarterback, but everyone could see that their choice wasn’t going to work out well. It was amazing to me that the Redskins’ brain trust didn’t seem to remember that Grossman’s best NFL days involved riding an elite defense’s coattails to the 2006 Super Bowl. Other than a few good moments during the 2005 season and resulting playoff run, Grossman’s NFL career can be summed up in one word: bleh. They also didn’t seem to notice that Beck hadn’t had anything remotely close to a good day in the NFL. Nevertheless, the Skins rolled the dice that Sexy Rexy could rekindle his glory days when he tried to not make mistakes and allowed his dominant defense to win games. Instead, Grossman has turned the ball over 11 times in five games and has basically wasted a defense that is allowing only 16.6 points per game. He has saved his worst performances for the times that Washington has lost this year with over half of his turnovers coming in those two games. The Redskins lost by two points to Dallas and by seven points to Philadelphia, when Grossman threw three interceptions inside the Eagles’ 30-yard line, so it is safe to say that the Redskins have been just a Grossman away from being undefeated. Now, Mike Shanahan is in the unenviable position of having to choose between two flawed choices to lead his team into their next game. As a result of their huge disadvantage at quarterback, I predict that the Skins will be watching the playoffs yet again instead of participating in them.
(3) With the early success of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez and the impressive debuts of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, I think it is time for the Minnesota Vikings to hand over the starting quarterback job to Christian Ponder. Honestly, I’m not sure why it has taken six weeks to even get to the point where Ponder is a viable candidate to run the show. Anyone that has watched Donovan McNabb play this year can see that he has lost his fastball completely, so he probably should have been replaced a couple of weeks ago when any magic that Ponder could have mustered might have been able to save the Vikings’ season. At this point, Minnesota has nothing other than pride to play for, so Leslie Frazier should make the switch to his rookie quarterback. He will be throwing his youngster to the wolves against the defending Super Bowl champs this Sunday, but a week eight match-up in Carolina and a week nine bye should allow Ponder to get better acclimated to being an NFL quarterback. In the best case scenario, Ponder has some early success a la Andy Dalton and the Vikings win a few games that they would have lost with McNabb short-hopping throws to open receivers. In the worst case scenario, Minnesota continues to lose but Ponder earns some valuable experience like Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville. Either way, the Vikings are finding out what they have in the future right now instead of blindly handing the football to McNabb on a weekly basis as he kills the spirit of his teammates’ and fans’. The sad part is that a classy veteran like McNabb is going to finally have to face the facts that he is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has to decide whether or not he wants to hold a clipboard for the next couple of years and collect a few more checks or if he wants to hang up the cleats with his pride still intact.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
Preview
The battle for supremacy in the State of New York has finally arrived with Buffalo’s visit to the Meadowlands to face-off against the Giants. On the surface, this game pits two teams going seemingly in opposite directions, but a closer look reveals that the final outcome is much more in doubt than you would imagine. The Bills enter this game with a 4-1 record and a lot of confidence but their depth will be tested due to a recent rash of injuries. They are missing a ton of wide receivers and they will likely play Sunday without defensive stalwarts Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman. I don’t believe that the injuries will impact the offensive side of the football that much because Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a wonderful job of spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, but the missing defenders could have a disastrous effect on Buffalo’s ability to win this game. Even with all of their players healthy, the Bills have not been a very good defensive team. They don’t get after the quarterback with only four sacks on the season and they are the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills really haven’t stopped their opponents from doing anything. Their saving grace has been their ability to force their opponents into turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential, which includes a league-high 12 interceptions. Most impressively, the Bills have returned an interception for a touchdown in the last three games. Obviously, forcing a lot of turnovers is a great indicator of success, but at some point the Bills are going to have to stop someone with sound defensive execution. With the game being on the road and the injuries mounting, I don’t believe that Buffalo is going to find the magic defensive pixie dust this week. I think that the Giants will take advantage of Williams’ absence and re-establish a running game that has been missing for most of the 2011 season. If the Giants are able to run the ball, then it will reduce the pressure on Eli Manning and reduce the number of opportunities that he has to throw the football to the other side.
The other area that I think deserves a lot of focus is the battle between the Buffalo offensive line and the New York pass rush. The Bills have been the stingiest offensive line in the NFL when it comes to allowing sacks as their opponents have reached Ryan Fitzgerald only four times in five games. On the other side, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 18. New York will likely be without Justin Tuck again, but they have more than enough depth with Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka to pick up the slack. I’m willing to say that Fitzgerald will face the most pressure he has faced all season, which will lead to at least two turnovers for the Giants’ defense. The great neutralizer for Buffalo is likely to be their 11th ranked running game, which averages 5.0 yards per carry. The Bills must continue running the football with success in order to take some of the steam out of the Giants’ potentially devastating pass rush. The Bills’ best chance to win involves Fred Jackson running for 125 or more yards on the ground and getting two or three opportunities to burn the aggressive New York defensive line in the screen game. Jackson is the x-factor in this game because he is the one player capable of keeping the wolves at bay. However, I believe that the Giants will play better against the run than they have all season, which will put the Buffalo offense in longer third down situations. At this point, the Giants will be able to pin their ears back and get after Fitzgerald, which is where the game will be ultimately won.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the quarterback – The Bills have protected the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Giants have allowed nearly three sacks per game. However, the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of collecting sacks. I believe that the Giants’ ability to pressure and sack the quarterback will overcome the great protection that the Bills have afforded Fitzpatrick through the first five games.
2. Run the football with success – Both of these teams want to run the football, but Buffalo is the only one that has had success on the ground so far. Furthermore, the Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs and right guard Chris Snee, which should weaken their already weak running game. Nevertheless, I believe that the Giants will focus on the run and take advantage of a Buffalo defense that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Also, I believe that the Giants’ defense will slow down Fred Jackson just enough to keep this part of the game even.
3. Keep turnovers at a minimum – The Bills’ defense has been the definition of opportunistic and Eli Manning has a history of being turnover prone. With these facts as our backdrop, Buffalo should have a huge advantage when it comes to the giveaway/takeaway ratio. However, the combination of a stronger Giants’ running game and the lack of a pass rush from Buffalo will keep Manning’s mistakes to a minimum and allow the Giants to take full advantage of Buffalo’s overall weak defense.
Prediction
New York Giants 21 – Buffalo Bills 17
The battle for supremacy in the State of New York has finally arrived with Buffalo’s visit to the Meadowlands to face-off against the Giants. On the surface, this game pits two teams going seemingly in opposite directions, but a closer look reveals that the final outcome is much more in doubt than you would imagine. The Bills enter this game with a 4-1 record and a lot of confidence but their depth will be tested due to a recent rash of injuries. They are missing a ton of wide receivers and they will likely play Sunday without defensive stalwarts Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman. I don’t believe that the injuries will impact the offensive side of the football that much because Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a wonderful job of spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, but the missing defenders could have a disastrous effect on Buffalo’s ability to win this game. Even with all of their players healthy, the Bills have not been a very good defensive team. They don’t get after the quarterback with only four sacks on the season and they are the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills really haven’t stopped their opponents from doing anything. Their saving grace has been their ability to force their opponents into turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential, which includes a league-high 12 interceptions. Most impressively, the Bills have returned an interception for a touchdown in the last three games. Obviously, forcing a lot of turnovers is a great indicator of success, but at some point the Bills are going to have to stop someone with sound defensive execution. With the game being on the road and the injuries mounting, I don’t believe that Buffalo is going to find the magic defensive pixie dust this week. I think that the Giants will take advantage of Williams’ absence and re-establish a running game that has been missing for most of the 2011 season. If the Giants are able to run the ball, then it will reduce the pressure on Eli Manning and reduce the number of opportunities that he has to throw the football to the other side.
The other area that I think deserves a lot of focus is the battle between the Buffalo offensive line and the New York pass rush. The Bills have been the stingiest offensive line in the NFL when it comes to allowing sacks as their opponents have reached Ryan Fitzgerald only four times in five games. On the other side, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 18. New York will likely be without Justin Tuck again, but they have more than enough depth with Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka to pick up the slack. I’m willing to say that Fitzgerald will face the most pressure he has faced all season, which will lead to at least two turnovers for the Giants’ defense. The great neutralizer for Buffalo is likely to be their 11th ranked running game, which averages 5.0 yards per carry. The Bills must continue running the football with success in order to take some of the steam out of the Giants’ potentially devastating pass rush. The Bills’ best chance to win involves Fred Jackson running for 125 or more yards on the ground and getting two or three opportunities to burn the aggressive New York defensive line in the screen game. Jackson is the x-factor in this game because he is the one player capable of keeping the wolves at bay. However, I believe that the Giants will play better against the run than they have all season, which will put the Buffalo offense in longer third down situations. At this point, the Giants will be able to pin their ears back and get after Fitzgerald, which is where the game will be ultimately won.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the quarterback – The Bills have protected the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Giants have allowed nearly three sacks per game. However, the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of collecting sacks. I believe that the Giants’ ability to pressure and sack the quarterback will overcome the great protection that the Bills have afforded Fitzpatrick through the first five games.
2. Run the football with success – Both of these teams want to run the football, but Buffalo is the only one that has had success on the ground so far. Furthermore, the Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs and right guard Chris Snee, which should weaken their already weak running game. Nevertheless, I believe that the Giants will focus on the run and take advantage of a Buffalo defense that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Also, I believe that the Giants’ defense will slow down Fred Jackson just enough to keep this part of the game even.
3. Keep turnovers at a minimum – The Bills’ defense has been the definition of opportunistic and Eli Manning has a history of being turnover prone. With these facts as our backdrop, Buffalo should have a huge advantage when it comes to the giveaway/takeaway ratio. However, the combination of a stronger Giants’ running game and the lack of a pass rush from Buffalo will keep Manning’s mistakes to a minimum and allow the Giants to take full advantage of Buffalo’s overall weak defense.
Prediction
New York Giants 21 – Buffalo Bills 17
Week Six Picks
Here are my picks for week six (home teams in CAPS):
Panthers over FALCONS
BENGALS over Colts
LIONS over 49ers
PACKERS over Rams
GIANTS over Bills
STEELERS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Eagles
RAIDERS over Browns
RAVENS over Texans
PATRIOTS over Cowboys
Saints over BUCCANEERS
BEARS over Vikings
JETS over Dolphins
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 51-26
Panthers over FALCONS
BENGALS over Colts
LIONS over 49ers
PACKERS over Rams
GIANTS over Bills
STEELERS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Eagles
RAIDERS over Browns
RAVENS over Texans
PATRIOTS over Cowboys
Saints over BUCCANEERS
BEARS over Vikings
JETS over Dolphins
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 51-26
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Week Five Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Detroit Lions started 5-0 for the fourth time in franchise history. They also started 5-0 in 1931, 1934 & 1956. They played as the Portsmouth Spartans from 1930-33.
Stat of the week No. 2: New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history (St. Louis, 14 consecutive games, ’99-’00)
Stat of the week No. 3: Aaron Rodgers is the fifth player with 100+ passer rating in each of the first five games of a season since 1970 (Tom Brady – ’07, Carson Palmer – ’05, Roger Staubach – ’76, John Hadl – ’73)
Stat of the week No. 4: Saints TE Jimmy Graham has three consecutive 100-yard receiving games. He is the first tight end to accomplish this feat since Tony Gonzalez in 2000.
Stat of the week No. 5: Kansas City’s come-from-behind victory marks the seventh time this season that a team has won a game despite trailing by 17 points or more, which is the most through five weeks in NFL history. 18 teams have won games after trailing by 10 points or more, which is also the most ever through five weeks
Stat of the week No. 2: New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history (St. Louis, 14 consecutive games, ’99-’00)
Stat of the week No. 3: Aaron Rodgers is the fifth player with 100+ passer rating in each of the first five games of a season since 1970 (Tom Brady – ’07, Carson Palmer – ’05, Roger Staubach – ’76, John Hadl – ’73)
Stat of the week No. 4: Saints TE Jimmy Graham has three consecutive 100-yard receiving games. He is the first tight end to accomplish this feat since Tony Gonzalez in 2000.
Stat of the week No. 5: Kansas City’s come-from-behind victory marks the seventh time this season that a team has won a game despite trailing by 17 points or more, which is the most through five weeks in NFL history. 18 teams have won games after trailing by 10 points or more, which is also the most ever through five weeks
The Seahawk's big win on the road and other NFL thoughts
(1) The Seattle Seahawks have certainly had bigger, more important victories in their franchise’s history, but the 36-25 road win over the New York Giants is the most impressive regular season victory in the Pete Carroll era. Last year’s triumph over the Bears in Chi-town was a great moment, but this victory surpasses that one on many different levels. First of all, the Hawks were finally able to win a game in the Eastern Time zone for the first time since 2007. Take an opportunity to allow that fact to marinate in your brain for a moment. Seattle has been zero for the last three seasons in their travels to the eastern seaboard. For those of you with short memories, the Hawks’ last victory on the East Coast was a 28-24 decision over the Philadelphia Eagles on December 2, 2007. Since that day, Seattle had lost nine consecutive road games in the Eastern Time zone by an average of 16 points. Hopefully, their big win this past Sunday will once and for all shake the east coast bugaboo for Seattle.
Secondly, the Hawks were able to beat a team that has owned them physically, mentally and emotionally over the last couple of seasons. Last year, the Hawks allowed New York to come into Qwest Field and generate 487 yards of total offense and control the clock for over 40 minutes on their way to a 41-7 shellacking. Back in 2008, the Hawks rolled into the Meadowlands following a bye week and got trounced 44-6 by the Giants. New York produced 523 yards of total offense and their defense thoroughly dominated Seattle. I believe that the Seahawk defenders that played that day still have Brandon Jacobs’ tread marks on the front of their jerseys. The third reason that this victory was so huge was that it was an honest to goodness team effort. It has not been often over the last four seasons that Seattle has been able to match good defense and good offense on the same day. Through the first three-and-a-half games of 2011, the Seattle defense had generally played better football than their counterparts on the other side of the line. The offense finally stood up in the second half of the loss to Atlanta and it nearly was enough to steal the game. There was hope, leading up to the New York game, that the Hawks were finally poised to play a somewhat complete game. Their performance on Sunday is not going to win any beauty contests, but I really enjoyed the way that each unit picked up the other. The offense turned the ball over three times, but the defense forced five turnovers, returned an interception for a touchdown and registered a safety. The offense lost Tarvaris Jackson to an injury, but the defense pitched a shutout in the third quarter to give back-up Charlie Whitehurst an opportunity to get settled in. The defense allowed the Giants to take the lead twice in the fourth quarter, but the Seattle offense responded both times with scoring drives to regain control of the game. For one of the few times in recent memory, I was proud to be a Seattle fan.
Finally, the Hawks were able to get this big win thanks to some great plays from their young guys and back-ups. Whitehurst played admirably in relief of Jackson and may have played himself into a dreaded quarterback controversy. Doug Baldwin has gone from being undrafted to leading the team in receptions after five weeks. Baldwin’s heady play was never more evident that his decision to continue playing when it appeared that the Giants’ defense stopped because they thought a penalty was going to be called on Osi Umenyiora for rushing unabated to the quarterback. The result was a game-winning touchdown pass from Whitehurst. Let’s not forget the game-clinching interception return for a touchdown by Brandon Browner, which capped a day of big plays from the Seattle defense. We also saw Anthony Hargrove make a gigantic play with the safety in the third quarter and Chris Clemons play a maniacal game from his rush end position. All of these guys, plus many others on the Seattle roster, were unwanted by their former employers. I think it says a lot about John Schneider’s eye for talent that they are all showing they have the talent to compete and succeed in the NFL still. With this wonderful result, the bye week and two winnable games in weeks seven and eight, the Hawks might have found the elixir to turn their season around.
(2) With the silence befitting a ninja, the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to build something special despite the utter lack of positive expectations. The stare down between Carson Palmer and Mike Brown clouded their offseason and the horrible start to the Andy Dalton era had Cincinnati fans preparing themselves for another long season. After a 1-2 start to the year, it appeared that the predicted disaster was going to happen. However, the astute observer could look past the back-to-back losses to Denver and San Francisco to see several positive signs that the Bengals had a chance to be better than anyone could have predicted. The first good sign is that Andy Dalton was not the train-wreck that he appeared to be in the preseason. He struggled mightily at home against San Francisco, but he played brilliantly on the road in Denver and has been solid over the last two weeks. Dalton is not a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback right now, but his early play has indicated that the future is bright for the Bengals. It also has lessened the sting of Palmer’s decision to walk away from the team rather than play another down in the Queen City. The second encouraging sign is that Dalton has already established a rapport with his fellow rookie, A.J. Green. Their budding connection has already produced 24 completions and two touchdowns. You can excuse Cincinnati fans from daydreaming about Dalton-to-Green touchdown passes for the next 5-10 years. In his own right, Green looks like the real deal, as he ranks in the top 20 among wide receivers in yards, receptions and yards per reception. The final reason to be optimistic in Cincinnati has been the stellar play from their defense. The Bengals’ defense was completely ignored leading up to the start of the 2011 season, but they are currently ranked as the #1 overall defense after five weeks. This unit may not be filled with household names, but it has proven that it is one of the best groups in the NFL. More importantly, it has given the young offense time to come together and develop its own identity. With Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee next up on their schedule, the Bengals have a golden opportunity to be at least 5-3 heading into a November 13th showdown with Pittsburgh.
(3) I guess all of the attempts by the media to bury the Pittsburgh Steelers were a bit premature. The Steelers had looked awful in losses to Baltimore and Houston and underwhelming in victories over Seattle and Indianapolis, so the dominant talk in the blogosphere and on talk radio was that their window of opportunity had closed completely. Making matters worse, they entered the match-up with Tennessee with a banged-up quarterback, a patchwork offensive line and a number of their stalwarts missing in action due to injury. The prevailing thought was that the Titans would seize their opportunity and continue their surprising start with a road victory over the Steelers. Unfortunately, for Tennessee, NFL games are not played on talk radio. Instead, Pittsburgh dominated the Titans from beginning to end with a resilient effort that has always been a trademark of the franchise. Ben Roethlisberger shook off an injured foot to lead the way with five touchdown passes, while his rebuilt offensive line held up for most of the afternoon. The Steelers certainly configured their game plan to limit the opportunities to get Big Ben hit, but the mid-week signing of Max Starks seems to have solidified an offensive line that has been a disaster through the first four weeks. In addition to Roethlisberger’s tremendous performance, the Steelers’ defense rebounded nicely from their horrendous game against Houston. They may have been unable to slow down Arian Foster, but they completely bottled up Chris Johnson, which allowed them to unleash their pass rushers on Matt Hasselbeck. Most impressively, they dominated Tennessee without the services of James Harrison, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith. Despite having a shut out on their 2011 resume, this performance marks their most dominating defensive effort of the season. The Seahawks basically laid down during the 24-0 loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but the Titans had a hot quarterback and enough playmakers to give the Steelers headaches. Pittsburgh made Hasselbeck look pedestrian and never allowed the Titans to have any breathing room on offense. This Steelers team is the team that has been one of the dominant squads in the AFC over the last 10 years despite the hope from around the NFL that their best days were behind them. Now, the Steelers have a chance to get even healthier with games against Jacksonville and Arizona over the next two weeks.
Secondly, the Hawks were able to beat a team that has owned them physically, mentally and emotionally over the last couple of seasons. Last year, the Hawks allowed New York to come into Qwest Field and generate 487 yards of total offense and control the clock for over 40 minutes on their way to a 41-7 shellacking. Back in 2008, the Hawks rolled into the Meadowlands following a bye week and got trounced 44-6 by the Giants. New York produced 523 yards of total offense and their defense thoroughly dominated Seattle. I believe that the Seahawk defenders that played that day still have Brandon Jacobs’ tread marks on the front of their jerseys. The third reason that this victory was so huge was that it was an honest to goodness team effort. It has not been often over the last four seasons that Seattle has been able to match good defense and good offense on the same day. Through the first three-and-a-half games of 2011, the Seattle defense had generally played better football than their counterparts on the other side of the line. The offense finally stood up in the second half of the loss to Atlanta and it nearly was enough to steal the game. There was hope, leading up to the New York game, that the Hawks were finally poised to play a somewhat complete game. Their performance on Sunday is not going to win any beauty contests, but I really enjoyed the way that each unit picked up the other. The offense turned the ball over three times, but the defense forced five turnovers, returned an interception for a touchdown and registered a safety. The offense lost Tarvaris Jackson to an injury, but the defense pitched a shutout in the third quarter to give back-up Charlie Whitehurst an opportunity to get settled in. The defense allowed the Giants to take the lead twice in the fourth quarter, but the Seattle offense responded both times with scoring drives to regain control of the game. For one of the few times in recent memory, I was proud to be a Seattle fan.
Finally, the Hawks were able to get this big win thanks to some great plays from their young guys and back-ups. Whitehurst played admirably in relief of Jackson and may have played himself into a dreaded quarterback controversy. Doug Baldwin has gone from being undrafted to leading the team in receptions after five weeks. Baldwin’s heady play was never more evident that his decision to continue playing when it appeared that the Giants’ defense stopped because they thought a penalty was going to be called on Osi Umenyiora for rushing unabated to the quarterback. The result was a game-winning touchdown pass from Whitehurst. Let’s not forget the game-clinching interception return for a touchdown by Brandon Browner, which capped a day of big plays from the Seattle defense. We also saw Anthony Hargrove make a gigantic play with the safety in the third quarter and Chris Clemons play a maniacal game from his rush end position. All of these guys, plus many others on the Seattle roster, were unwanted by their former employers. I think it says a lot about John Schneider’s eye for talent that they are all showing they have the talent to compete and succeed in the NFL still. With this wonderful result, the bye week and two winnable games in weeks seven and eight, the Hawks might have found the elixir to turn their season around.
(2) With the silence befitting a ninja, the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to build something special despite the utter lack of positive expectations. The stare down between Carson Palmer and Mike Brown clouded their offseason and the horrible start to the Andy Dalton era had Cincinnati fans preparing themselves for another long season. After a 1-2 start to the year, it appeared that the predicted disaster was going to happen. However, the astute observer could look past the back-to-back losses to Denver and San Francisco to see several positive signs that the Bengals had a chance to be better than anyone could have predicted. The first good sign is that Andy Dalton was not the train-wreck that he appeared to be in the preseason. He struggled mightily at home against San Francisco, but he played brilliantly on the road in Denver and has been solid over the last two weeks. Dalton is not a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback right now, but his early play has indicated that the future is bright for the Bengals. It also has lessened the sting of Palmer’s decision to walk away from the team rather than play another down in the Queen City. The second encouraging sign is that Dalton has already established a rapport with his fellow rookie, A.J. Green. Their budding connection has already produced 24 completions and two touchdowns. You can excuse Cincinnati fans from daydreaming about Dalton-to-Green touchdown passes for the next 5-10 years. In his own right, Green looks like the real deal, as he ranks in the top 20 among wide receivers in yards, receptions and yards per reception. The final reason to be optimistic in Cincinnati has been the stellar play from their defense. The Bengals’ defense was completely ignored leading up to the start of the 2011 season, but they are currently ranked as the #1 overall defense after five weeks. This unit may not be filled with household names, but it has proven that it is one of the best groups in the NFL. More importantly, it has given the young offense time to come together and develop its own identity. With Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee next up on their schedule, the Bengals have a golden opportunity to be at least 5-3 heading into a November 13th showdown with Pittsburgh.
(3) I guess all of the attempts by the media to bury the Pittsburgh Steelers were a bit premature. The Steelers had looked awful in losses to Baltimore and Houston and underwhelming in victories over Seattle and Indianapolis, so the dominant talk in the blogosphere and on talk radio was that their window of opportunity had closed completely. Making matters worse, they entered the match-up with Tennessee with a banged-up quarterback, a patchwork offensive line and a number of their stalwarts missing in action due to injury. The prevailing thought was that the Titans would seize their opportunity and continue their surprising start with a road victory over the Steelers. Unfortunately, for Tennessee, NFL games are not played on talk radio. Instead, Pittsburgh dominated the Titans from beginning to end with a resilient effort that has always been a trademark of the franchise. Ben Roethlisberger shook off an injured foot to lead the way with five touchdown passes, while his rebuilt offensive line held up for most of the afternoon. The Steelers certainly configured their game plan to limit the opportunities to get Big Ben hit, but the mid-week signing of Max Starks seems to have solidified an offensive line that has been a disaster through the first four weeks. In addition to Roethlisberger’s tremendous performance, the Steelers’ defense rebounded nicely from their horrendous game against Houston. They may have been unable to slow down Arian Foster, but they completely bottled up Chris Johnson, which allowed them to unleash their pass rushers on Matt Hasselbeck. Most impressively, they dominated Tennessee without the services of James Harrison, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith. Despite having a shut out on their 2011 resume, this performance marks their most dominating defensive effort of the season. The Seahawks basically laid down during the 24-0 loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but the Titans had a hot quarterback and enough playmakers to give the Steelers headaches. Pittsburgh made Hasselbeck look pedestrian and never allowed the Titans to have any breathing room on offense. This Steelers team is the team that has been one of the dominant squads in the AFC over the last 10 years despite the hope from around the NFL that their best days were behind them. Now, the Steelers have a chance to get even healthier with games against Jacksonville and Arizona over the next two weeks.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Preview
The game between Tampa Bay and San Francisco is a match-up between two 3-1 teams that are both, surprisingly, division leaders. Despite their early success, both teams have enough question marks about them that this game is virtually a toss-up. The first advantage enjoyed by San Francisco is that they get the pleasure of facing the Bucs after a short week and a cross-country flight. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Tampa has had trouble getting started quickly in all of their four games. They were shut out in the first half during their week two match-up with Minnesota and they have only scored 39% of their points in the first half. Another advantage for San Francisco is the fact that their defensive strength, stopping the run, is in direct conflict with the preferred mode of operation for the Buccaneers. Tampa wants to control the line of scrimmage and dominate in the run game like they did against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The 49ers are in the top five in rushing yards allowed and the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Even with the likely absence of Isaac Sopoaga in the middle of the defensive front, the 49ers should still be able to limit the Bucs’ ability to run the football. With a laser focus on preventing LeGarrette Blount from running wild, San Francisco will force Josh Freeman to win this game with his arm. Freeman had high expectations coming off a wildly successful second-year in the NFL, but his start to the 2011 season has been shaky at best. The Bucs are just the 17th best passing offense in the league and Freeman is averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. The Bucs are not trying to be the best passing team in the NFL, but the results should be better with the weapons that are at Freeman’s disposal. However, the 49ers have been extremely vulnerable in their pass defense, so this match-up just might be the recipe for Freeman to have his biggest day of the year.
The Bucs’ strength on defense is also their ability to stuff the run. It would seem wise for Tampa to take a similar approach as San Francisco and force the opposing quarterback to beat them. The Bucs want to see if the real Alex Smith is the guy that threw for over 200 yards in the second half against the Eagles or the guy that has led the 29th ranked passing attack through the first quarter of the season. If Tampa can create long third down opportunities for the 49ers, then they will be able to unleash their young pass rushers. Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn, Gerald McCoy and the other guys on the defensive line are salivating at the opportunity to get after a San Francisco offensive line that has allowed nearly four sacks per game. The ability to pressure the quarterback is an area where the Bucs have a clear advantage and should be able to use it to create turnovers and short fields for their offense. Another area where Tampa seems to have an edge is on third down. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL in keeping drives alive with third down conversions and one of the stingiest in allowing their opponents to convert similar situations. They are facing another stingy team on third down, but, if the Bucs can control the ball, then their superior offensive line will be able to wear out the depleted 49ers’ front. Finally, the Bucs must protect the football against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Tampa has done a decent job through the first four games, but they are playing a team that has built a large part of their 3-1 record due to their ability to cause turnovers. The 49ers are +8 in the takeaway/give-away department, so they will be looking for opportunities to continue that trend.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have positive turnover differentials, so they will be looking for chances to take the football away from the other side in order to create short fields for the offense or score points themselves. The strength of both teams is their defense, so points will come at a premium. A short field here or there or a defensive touchdown could very well be the difference in the game. Both teams do a good job of protecting the football, but the 49ers will force a key turnover that will help them win this game.
2. Win the special teams battle – Both teams have strong special teams. San Francisco is second in the league in kickoff return average and the Bucs are tied for 3rd. They are very comparable in punt return average, field goal kicking and net punting yards. The difference between the two teams is Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn is third in the NFL in kickoff return average and he is in the top 15 in punt return average. Even though it occurred in the same game, Ginn also has two return touchdowns on the season. Preston Parker is a nice returner, especially on punt returns, but Ginn averages nearly 11 more yards per kickoff return.
3. Stay on the field – Time of possession will be an important factor in this game. The Bucs’ best chance to win the game is to control the football for long stretches of time and wear out the San Francisco defense. As long as the extended drives result in points, the Bucs will be able to steal a win on the road. Based on early results, the Bucs look like the team that is more capable of staying on the field, so this will be a very interesting area of the game to keep an eye on.
Prediction
San Francisco 16 – Tampa Bay 10
The game between Tampa Bay and San Francisco is a match-up between two 3-1 teams that are both, surprisingly, division leaders. Despite their early success, both teams have enough question marks about them that this game is virtually a toss-up. The first advantage enjoyed by San Francisco is that they get the pleasure of facing the Bucs after a short week and a cross-country flight. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Tampa has had trouble getting started quickly in all of their four games. They were shut out in the first half during their week two match-up with Minnesota and they have only scored 39% of their points in the first half. Another advantage for San Francisco is the fact that their defensive strength, stopping the run, is in direct conflict with the preferred mode of operation for the Buccaneers. Tampa wants to control the line of scrimmage and dominate in the run game like they did against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The 49ers are in the top five in rushing yards allowed and the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Even with the likely absence of Isaac Sopoaga in the middle of the defensive front, the 49ers should still be able to limit the Bucs’ ability to run the football. With a laser focus on preventing LeGarrette Blount from running wild, San Francisco will force Josh Freeman to win this game with his arm. Freeman had high expectations coming off a wildly successful second-year in the NFL, but his start to the 2011 season has been shaky at best. The Bucs are just the 17th best passing offense in the league and Freeman is averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. The Bucs are not trying to be the best passing team in the NFL, but the results should be better with the weapons that are at Freeman’s disposal. However, the 49ers have been extremely vulnerable in their pass defense, so this match-up just might be the recipe for Freeman to have his biggest day of the year.
The Bucs’ strength on defense is also their ability to stuff the run. It would seem wise for Tampa to take a similar approach as San Francisco and force the opposing quarterback to beat them. The Bucs want to see if the real Alex Smith is the guy that threw for over 200 yards in the second half against the Eagles or the guy that has led the 29th ranked passing attack through the first quarter of the season. If Tampa can create long third down opportunities for the 49ers, then they will be able to unleash their young pass rushers. Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn, Gerald McCoy and the other guys on the defensive line are salivating at the opportunity to get after a San Francisco offensive line that has allowed nearly four sacks per game. The ability to pressure the quarterback is an area where the Bucs have a clear advantage and should be able to use it to create turnovers and short fields for their offense. Another area where Tampa seems to have an edge is on third down. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL in keeping drives alive with third down conversions and one of the stingiest in allowing their opponents to convert similar situations. They are facing another stingy team on third down, but, if the Bucs can control the ball, then their superior offensive line will be able to wear out the depleted 49ers’ front. Finally, the Bucs must protect the football against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Tampa has done a decent job through the first four games, but they are playing a team that has built a large part of their 3-1 record due to their ability to cause turnovers. The 49ers are +8 in the takeaway/give-away department, so they will be looking for opportunities to continue that trend.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have positive turnover differentials, so they will be looking for chances to take the football away from the other side in order to create short fields for the offense or score points themselves. The strength of both teams is their defense, so points will come at a premium. A short field here or there or a defensive touchdown could very well be the difference in the game. Both teams do a good job of protecting the football, but the 49ers will force a key turnover that will help them win this game.
2. Win the special teams battle – Both teams have strong special teams. San Francisco is second in the league in kickoff return average and the Bucs are tied for 3rd. They are very comparable in punt return average, field goal kicking and net punting yards. The difference between the two teams is Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn is third in the NFL in kickoff return average and he is in the top 15 in punt return average. Even though it occurred in the same game, Ginn also has two return touchdowns on the season. Preston Parker is a nice returner, especially on punt returns, but Ginn averages nearly 11 more yards per kickoff return.
3. Stay on the field – Time of possession will be an important factor in this game. The Bucs’ best chance to win the game is to control the football for long stretches of time and wear out the San Francisco defense. As long as the extended drives result in points, the Bucs will be able to steal a win on the road. Based on early results, the Bucs look like the team that is more capable of staying on the field, so this will be a very interesting area of the game to keep an eye on.
Prediction
San Francisco 16 – Tampa Bay 10
Week Five Picks
Here are my picks for week five (home teams in CAPS):
BILLS over Eagles
Chiefs over COLTS
VIKINGS over Cardinals
Titans over STEELERS
Saints over PANTHERS
Bengals over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Raiders
49ERS over Buccaneers
Chargers over BRONCOS
PATRIOTS over Jets
Packers over FALCONS
LIONS over Bears
GIANTS over Seahawks
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 41-23
BILLS over Eagles
Chiefs over COLTS
VIKINGS over Cardinals
Titans over STEELERS
Saints over PANTHERS
Bengals over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Raiders
49ERS over Buccaneers
Chargers over BRONCOS
PATRIOTS over Jets
Packers over FALCONS
LIONS over Bears
GIANTS over Seahawks
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 41-23
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Week Four Stats of the Week
Stat of the week
No. 1: Aaron Rodgers became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for
400 yards, throw for four touchdowns and run for two touchdowns in a single
game.
Stat of the week
No. 2: Detroit is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in
which it trailed by at least 20 points.
Stat of the week
No. 3: Vernon Davis now has 21 TD catches since the start of 2009, which is the
most among all NFL tight ends.
Stat of the week
No. 4: Matt Forte became the third Chicago Bear ever to post a 200-yard rushing
game (Gale Sayers & Walter Payton).
Stat of the week
No. 5: Drew Brees has at least 20 completions in 24 consecutive games, which is
the longest streak in NFL history.
Bonus stat of
the week: Jared Cook’s (Titans’ TE) 80-yard TD catch was the longest by a
Titan/Oiler in nearly 47 years (Willie Frazier had an 80-yard TD in November of
1964).
The Jets and Ravens struggle to score and other NFL thoughts
(1) I can appreciate a defensive battle just as much as the next guy, but the Sunday night match-up between the Ravens and the Jets was just plain, ugly football. Both defenses can’t help but play well when both offenses can’t get out of their own way. There were a lot of points scored, but it wasn’t anything close to an offensive game. The Ravens and Jets set an NFL record for the most points scored with only one offensive touchdown. The Jets were so bad on offense that its only contribution to the total score was a 40-yard field goal late in the first half. The Jets’ ineptitude could be directly attributed to the poor play of Mark Sanchez, who seemed to get more and more uncomfortable as the night wore on. His poor play has to be setting off alarm bells throughout the organization about whether he is making progress in his third year. Despite the back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, Sanchez is still more of a dink-and-dunk quarterback (6.62 yds/attempt in his career) and a 50-50 proposition on every pass attempted (54.5% completion percentage in his career). On Sunday night, Sanchez looked terrible, even by Pop Warner standards, with four turnovers, a 31.4% completion percentage and a 3.4 yards/attempt average. Fortunately, for Sanchez, Joe Flacco played his own brand of awful football to ensure that the criticism of the quarterbacks would be shared equally. Flacco had his own pair of turnovers to go along with a 32.2% completion percentage and a mediocre 5.3 yards/attempt. The start to the 2011 season for Flacco has been maddening because he has been unable to establish the consistency that he started to show in 2010. He performed brilliantly against the Steelers on opening day and the Rams last week, but he has played atrocious football against the Titans in week two and now against the Jets. He entered the year completed 62% of his attempts during his career, but he is only completing 49.3% of his passes through four games. The Ravens should consider themselves extremely fortunate to be 3-1 despite a very uneven start to the year for their quarterback. Since the quarterbacks struggled so mightily, this game had about as much flow as a clogged sewer pipe. The turnovers certainly contributed to the lack of rhythm, but the inability of either team to regularly convert their third down opportunities killed more drives than Akili Smith. It also didn’t help that both sides couldn’t generate credible running games and the penalty flags were flying around on a regular basis (16 combined penalties). The commissioner should instruct NFL Films to destroy all video evidence of this game because I don’t think it will be immortalized any time soon.
It was a good thing that the defenses and special teams decided to show up and add some excitement because, otherwise, the 70,000 fans in attendance would have fallen asleep like they had been given a pair of Ambien tablets. The lack of offensive fireworks was replaced by two fumble returns for touchdowns, two interception returns for touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. The combined four defensive touchdowns tie an NFL record that has been done many times, most recently in a Chargers-Chiefs game from October 19, 1986. In addition to the scoring smorgasbord, the defenses generally punished the offenses from the first whistle to the last. The game featured 16 quarterback hits, four sacks and seven tackles for loss, as well as a ton of quarterback pressure. The intensity generated by the defenses contributed to the inaccuracy from both quarterbacks. Furthermore, the defenses put the clamps on the opposing running games as well. The Ravens were able to generate 112 yards rushing because they committed to the run in the second half to prevent the fans from the horror of seeing another Joe Flacco pass attempt. Despite the shiny bottom line from Baltimore, the two offenses combined to average 2.5 yards/carry, which is the best indication that neither ground game was very effective. In the end, both defenses can take a great deal of pride in the manner that they discombobulated their opponent. For Baltimore, this defensive effort was about par for the course. For the Jets, this performance demonstrates that they are still capable of being an elite unit after the demoralizing way that they lost in Oakland the week prior. Now they will have to figure out how to get the offense, defense and special units playing well at the same time.
(2) Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers have a two game lead in the NFC West after the first quarter of the 2011 season. Even crazier, the 49ers are a 48-yard Dallas field goal away from being undefeated. San Francisco has not played the toughest schedule in the world, but they have won two road games, in the Eastern time zone, over the last two weeks. Their latest victory has to be their most impressive of the young season. They not only beat the Dream Team from Philly, but they overcame a 20-point second half deficit to do it. This win, more than anything, demonstrates that the 49ers have developed the mental fortitude to win tough games no matter where they are playing. They would not have been able to accomplish this under the last coaching staff, so a lot of credit has to be given to Jim Harbaugh and his coaches. The new regime has enjoyed the early success because they have created an identity in all three phases of the game. On defense, the 49ers are a hard-hitting and opportunistic group. Their two biggest strengths are the ability to stop the run and create turnovers. They are the fourth best run defense in the league, allowing just 74 yards per game, and this has allowed them to make their opponents one-dimensional. I believe this is one of the reasons why the 49ers are currently 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Their opponents have quickly realized that is it fruitless to run the football, so they have resorted to throwing the ball. Through the first four games, the 49ers’ opponents have thrown the ball on 65% of the plays even though every game has been competitive until the end. In addition to their run defense, San Francisco has been extremely successful creating turnovers. They have forced nearly three turnovers per game and they are currently tied with Detroit with a +8 turnover differential. The mistakes by the other teams have provided short fields for the 49ers and have kept their defense fresh.
The San Francisco offense is definitely developing a reputation as one that manages the game and maximizes their scoring opportunities. With Alex Smith at quarterback and zero established playmakers on the outside, the 49ers have to really focus on taking care of the football and taking advantage of their scoring chances. On both accounts, they have been doing a great job under Coach Harbaugh. They have only turned the ball three times on offense, which is one of the lowest numbers in the NFL, and they have averaged 23.5 points per game despite being the 28th ranked unit in the league. The biggest improvement for the 49ers has been the confidence that Coach Harbaugh has instilled in his quarterback. The struggles of Alex Smith have been well-chronicled since he was drafted number one overall, but it looks like he has finally met his dream head coach. The 49ers might have played things a little close to the vest through the first three weeks, but they had their best offensive output against the Eagles in week four. They rolled up 442 yards of total offense, which included 291 yards passing and 164 yards rushing. The most important thing that they showed on Sunday was the ability to create explosive plays as they averaged 7.2 yards per play. It looks like they are starting to hit their stride just as their schedule turns a little tougher over the next several weeks.
The final piece of the puzzle has been the play of the special teams over the first part of the season. The 49ers returned two kicks for touchdowns on opening day and they haven’t looked back since. They are the number two team in the league on kickoff returns and the 14th ranked team on punt returns. The success in the return game has also set-up their offense with very favorable field position. In addition, San Francisco has been very stingy with their coverage teams. They are allowing only 21.3 yards per kickoff return and 8.5 yards per punt return. Finally, their kickers have played excellently as well. David Akers has made 80% of his field goals, which includes two 50+ conversions. Andy Lee has been booming punt after punt, which has resulted in a net average of 46.1 yards. In conclusion, the 49ers have seized control of the weak NFC West and are poised to run away with things. They are building confidence based on their early success, which is great news for their new coaching staff and their long-suffering fan base.
(3) At the quarter pole, the 2011 NFL season has started to take shape. We now have enough of a body of evidence to determine which teams are good, which teams are bad and which are kind of in the middle. For example, the Minnesota Vikings are terrible. They are most likely the worst team in the NFL after they stubbed their toe against one of the other dregs of society, the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers are showing that they will have no hangover from their Super Bowl victory. Since the season has started to take shape, let’s hand out some awards for what we have seen through the first four weeks.
Best Team of the Quarter Season: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The other team is the Detroit Lions, so shouldn’t there be co-honoree for this award? I’m putting the Pack slightly ahead of the Comeback Cats for two reasons: (1) Green Bay gets the benefit of the doubt because they are the defending Super Bowl champs and (2) the Packers haven’t had to overcome 20-point deficits in consecutive weeks to keep their perfect record alive. The Packers have the most explosive offense in the NFL and a defense that is much better than what their current ranking indicates. I also believe that they have a perfect balance of youth and experience on both sides of the football, which should allow them to stay relatively healthy and succeed in close games when the weather turns ugly.
MVP of the Quarter Season: Aaron Rodgers
A lot of the early headlines have belonged to Tom Brady, but Rodgers has quietly elevated his game to the point that he belongs on the Mount Rushmore of active quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He is on pace to increase his completion percentage by six points, throw 20 touchdowns more and throw 1,400 yards more than his numbers from last season. In addition, Rodgers can make opposing teams pay with his running ability, which is something that Brady, Manning, Brees and many others are unable to do.
Rookie of the Quarter Season: Cam Newton
Is there even an argument? Newton has completely redefined what we should expect from a rookie quarterback. He is on pace to throw for over 5,500 yards, throw for 20 TDs, complete nearly 60% of his attempts and average 8.5 yards/attempt.
Coach of the Quarter Season: Jim Schwartz
Schwartz has led the Lions to a 4-0 start. Do I need to provide any other evidence? Even more incredible, the Lions are essentially working on a 12-game winning streak (4-0 to end last season, 4-0 in the preseason, and 4-0 to start 2011). These are the same Detroit Lions that were 9-47 from the middle of 2007 through the end of the 2010 season.
It was a good thing that the defenses and special teams decided to show up and add some excitement because, otherwise, the 70,000 fans in attendance would have fallen asleep like they had been given a pair of Ambien tablets. The lack of offensive fireworks was replaced by two fumble returns for touchdowns, two interception returns for touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. The combined four defensive touchdowns tie an NFL record that has been done many times, most recently in a Chargers-Chiefs game from October 19, 1986. In addition to the scoring smorgasbord, the defenses generally punished the offenses from the first whistle to the last. The game featured 16 quarterback hits, four sacks and seven tackles for loss, as well as a ton of quarterback pressure. The intensity generated by the defenses contributed to the inaccuracy from both quarterbacks. Furthermore, the defenses put the clamps on the opposing running games as well. The Ravens were able to generate 112 yards rushing because they committed to the run in the second half to prevent the fans from the horror of seeing another Joe Flacco pass attempt. Despite the shiny bottom line from Baltimore, the two offenses combined to average 2.5 yards/carry, which is the best indication that neither ground game was very effective. In the end, both defenses can take a great deal of pride in the manner that they discombobulated their opponent. For Baltimore, this defensive effort was about par for the course. For the Jets, this performance demonstrates that they are still capable of being an elite unit after the demoralizing way that they lost in Oakland the week prior. Now they will have to figure out how to get the offense, defense and special units playing well at the same time.
(2) Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers have a two game lead in the NFC West after the first quarter of the 2011 season. Even crazier, the 49ers are a 48-yard Dallas field goal away from being undefeated. San Francisco has not played the toughest schedule in the world, but they have won two road games, in the Eastern time zone, over the last two weeks. Their latest victory has to be their most impressive of the young season. They not only beat the Dream Team from Philly, but they overcame a 20-point second half deficit to do it. This win, more than anything, demonstrates that the 49ers have developed the mental fortitude to win tough games no matter where they are playing. They would not have been able to accomplish this under the last coaching staff, so a lot of credit has to be given to Jim Harbaugh and his coaches. The new regime has enjoyed the early success because they have created an identity in all three phases of the game. On defense, the 49ers are a hard-hitting and opportunistic group. Their two biggest strengths are the ability to stop the run and create turnovers. They are the fourth best run defense in the league, allowing just 74 yards per game, and this has allowed them to make their opponents one-dimensional. I believe this is one of the reasons why the 49ers are currently 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Their opponents have quickly realized that is it fruitless to run the football, so they have resorted to throwing the ball. Through the first four games, the 49ers’ opponents have thrown the ball on 65% of the plays even though every game has been competitive until the end. In addition to their run defense, San Francisco has been extremely successful creating turnovers. They have forced nearly three turnovers per game and they are currently tied with Detroit with a +8 turnover differential. The mistakes by the other teams have provided short fields for the 49ers and have kept their defense fresh.
The San Francisco offense is definitely developing a reputation as one that manages the game and maximizes their scoring opportunities. With Alex Smith at quarterback and zero established playmakers on the outside, the 49ers have to really focus on taking care of the football and taking advantage of their scoring chances. On both accounts, they have been doing a great job under Coach Harbaugh. They have only turned the ball three times on offense, which is one of the lowest numbers in the NFL, and they have averaged 23.5 points per game despite being the 28th ranked unit in the league. The biggest improvement for the 49ers has been the confidence that Coach Harbaugh has instilled in his quarterback. The struggles of Alex Smith have been well-chronicled since he was drafted number one overall, but it looks like he has finally met his dream head coach. The 49ers might have played things a little close to the vest through the first three weeks, but they had their best offensive output against the Eagles in week four. They rolled up 442 yards of total offense, which included 291 yards passing and 164 yards rushing. The most important thing that they showed on Sunday was the ability to create explosive plays as they averaged 7.2 yards per play. It looks like they are starting to hit their stride just as their schedule turns a little tougher over the next several weeks.
The final piece of the puzzle has been the play of the special teams over the first part of the season. The 49ers returned two kicks for touchdowns on opening day and they haven’t looked back since. They are the number two team in the league on kickoff returns and the 14th ranked team on punt returns. The success in the return game has also set-up their offense with very favorable field position. In addition, San Francisco has been very stingy with their coverage teams. They are allowing only 21.3 yards per kickoff return and 8.5 yards per punt return. Finally, their kickers have played excellently as well. David Akers has made 80% of his field goals, which includes two 50+ conversions. Andy Lee has been booming punt after punt, which has resulted in a net average of 46.1 yards. In conclusion, the 49ers have seized control of the weak NFC West and are poised to run away with things. They are building confidence based on their early success, which is great news for their new coaching staff and their long-suffering fan base.
(3) At the quarter pole, the 2011 NFL season has started to take shape. We now have enough of a body of evidence to determine which teams are good, which teams are bad and which are kind of in the middle. For example, the Minnesota Vikings are terrible. They are most likely the worst team in the NFL after they stubbed their toe against one of the other dregs of society, the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers are showing that they will have no hangover from their Super Bowl victory. Since the season has started to take shape, let’s hand out some awards for what we have seen through the first four weeks.
Best Team of the Quarter Season: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The other team is the Detroit Lions, so shouldn’t there be co-honoree for this award? I’m putting the Pack slightly ahead of the Comeback Cats for two reasons: (1) Green Bay gets the benefit of the doubt because they are the defending Super Bowl champs and (2) the Packers haven’t had to overcome 20-point deficits in consecutive weeks to keep their perfect record alive. The Packers have the most explosive offense in the NFL and a defense that is much better than what their current ranking indicates. I also believe that they have a perfect balance of youth and experience on both sides of the football, which should allow them to stay relatively healthy and succeed in close games when the weather turns ugly.
MVP of the Quarter Season: Aaron Rodgers
A lot of the early headlines have belonged to Tom Brady, but Rodgers has quietly elevated his game to the point that he belongs on the Mount Rushmore of active quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He is on pace to increase his completion percentage by six points, throw 20 touchdowns more and throw 1,400 yards more than his numbers from last season. In addition, Rodgers can make opposing teams pay with his running ability, which is something that Brady, Manning, Brees and many others are unable to do.
Rookie of the Quarter Season: Cam Newton
Is there even an argument? Newton has completely redefined what we should expect from a rookie quarterback. He is on pace to throw for over 5,500 yards, throw for 20 TDs, complete nearly 60% of his attempts and average 8.5 yards/attempt.
Coach of the Quarter Season: Jim Schwartz
Schwartz has led the Lions to a 4-0 start. Do I need to provide any other evidence? Even more incredible, the Lions are essentially working on a 12-game winning streak (4-0 to end last season, 4-0 in the preseason, and 4-0 to start 2011). These are the same Detroit Lions that were 9-47 from the middle of 2007 through the end of the 2010 season.
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