Commish's Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills at New York Giants

Preview
The battle for supremacy in the State of New York has finally arrived with Buffalo’s visit to the Meadowlands to face-off against the Giants. On the surface, this game pits two teams going seemingly in opposite directions, but a closer look reveals that the final outcome is much more in doubt than you would imagine. The Bills enter this game with a 4-1 record and a lot of confidence but their depth will be tested due to a recent rash of injuries. They are missing a ton of wide receivers and they will likely play Sunday without defensive stalwarts Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman. I don’t believe that the injuries will impact the offensive side of the football that much because Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a wonderful job of spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, but the missing defenders could have a disastrous effect on Buffalo’s ability to win this game. Even with all of their players healthy, the Bills have not been a very good defensive team. They don’t get after the quarterback with only four sacks on the season and they are the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills really haven’t stopped their opponents from doing anything. Their saving grace has been their ability to force their opponents into turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential, which includes a league-high 12 interceptions. Most impressively, the Bills have returned an interception for a touchdown in the last three games. Obviously, forcing a lot of turnovers is a great indicator of success, but at some point the Bills are going to have to stop someone with sound defensive execution. With the game being on the road and the injuries mounting, I don’t believe that Buffalo is going to find the magic defensive pixie dust this week. I think that the Giants will take advantage of Williams’ absence and re-establish a running game that has been missing for most of the 2011 season. If the Giants are able to run the ball, then it will reduce the pressure on Eli Manning and reduce the number of opportunities that he has to throw the football to the other side.

The other area that I think deserves a lot of focus is the battle between the Buffalo offensive line and the New York pass rush. The Bills have been the stingiest offensive line in the NFL when it comes to allowing sacks as their opponents have reached Ryan Fitzgerald only four times in five games. On the other side, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 18. New York will likely be without Justin Tuck again, but they have more than enough depth with Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka to pick up the slack. I’m willing to say that Fitzgerald will face the most pressure he has faced all season, which will lead to at least two turnovers for the Giants’ defense. The great neutralizer for Buffalo is likely to be their 11th ranked running game, which averages 5.0 yards per carry. The Bills must continue running the football with success in order to take some of the steam out of the Giants’ potentially devastating pass rush. The Bills’ best chance to win involves Fred Jackson running for 125 or more yards on the ground and getting two or three opportunities to burn the aggressive New York defensive line in the screen game. Jackson is the x-factor in this game because he is the one player capable of keeping the wolves at bay. However, I believe that the Giants will play better against the run than they have all season, which will put the Buffalo offense in longer third down situations. At this point, the Giants will be able to pin their ears back and get after Fitzgerald, which is where the game will be ultimately won.

Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the quarterback – The Bills have protected the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Giants have allowed nearly three sacks per game. However, the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of collecting sacks. I believe that the Giants’ ability to pressure and sack the quarterback will overcome the great protection that the Bills have afforded Fitzpatrick through the first five games.

2. Run the football with success – Both of these teams want to run the football, but Buffalo is the only one that has had success on the ground so far. Furthermore, the Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs and right guard Chris Snee, which should weaken their already weak running game. Nevertheless, I believe that the Giants will focus on the run and take advantage of a Buffalo defense that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Also, I believe that the Giants’ defense will slow down Fred Jackson just enough to keep this part of the game even.

3. Keep turnovers at a minimum – The Bills’ defense has been the definition of opportunistic and Eli Manning has a history of being turnover prone. With these facts as our backdrop, Buffalo should have a huge advantage when it comes to the giveaway/takeaway ratio. However, the combination of a stronger Giants’ running game and the lack of a pass rush from Buffalo will keep Manning’s mistakes to a minimum and allow the Giants to take full advantage of Buffalo’s overall weak defense.

Prediction
New York Giants 21 – Buffalo Bills 17