Here are my picks for the Championship Games (home teams in CAPS):
Green Bay over CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH over N.Y. Jets
Last Week: 2-2
Overall: 145-88
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Divisional Round Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: This is just the 3rd time in NFL playoff history that all four winning quarterbacks in a playoff weekend had a passer rating over 100. In the 2007 Divisional Round, Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning did it. It also happened in the 1982 Wild Card Round with David Woodley (MIA vs. NE), Joe Theismann (WAS vs. DET), Lynn Dickey (GB vs. STL) and Dan Fouts (SD vs. PIT).
Stat of the week No. 2: Aaron Rodgers has directed two of the three highest-scoring performances by a road team in NFL postseason history. In the process, the Packers became the fifth team in playoff history to score at least 28 points in a single quarter.
Stat of the week No. 3: The Steelers improved to 12-1 at home in the divisional round since 1970.
Stat of the week No. 4: The N.Y. Jets are the first team in NFL history to get at least two road wins in consecutive postseasons.
Stat of the week No. 5: In their last three postseason games, the Seahawks have allowed the most, second-most and third-most points they’ve ever allowed in a postseason game (42 points allowed in 2007 Divisional game, 36 points allowed in 2010 Wild Card game and 35 points allowed in 2010 Divisional game).
Stat of the week No. 2: Aaron Rodgers has directed two of the three highest-scoring performances by a road team in NFL postseason history. In the process, the Packers became the fifth team in playoff history to score at least 28 points in a single quarter.
Stat of the week No. 3: The Steelers improved to 12-1 at home in the divisional round since 1970.
Stat of the week No. 4: The N.Y. Jets are the first team in NFL history to get at least two road wins in consecutive postseasons.
Stat of the week No. 5: In their last three postseason games, the Seahawks have allowed the most, second-most and third-most points they’ve ever allowed in a postseason game (42 points allowed in 2007 Divisional game, 36 points allowed in 2010 Wild Card game and 35 points allowed in 2010 Divisional game).
The Packers annihilate Atlanta and other NFL Divisional Round thoughts
(1) Most of the talk about the Green Bay annihilation of Atlanta has revolved around the unbelievable performance by Aaron Rodgers. He was most certainly one of the biggest, if not the biggest, reasons why the Packers are playing for the NFC Championship. He accounted for four total touchdowns and posted the second highest completion percentage in a 300-yard passing game in NFL playoff history. He holds the NFL record for most touchdown passes thrown in a player’s first three career playoff games. He declared loud and clear that if people had not been willing to include him in the conversation about the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, then this virtuoso performance should provide the needed motivation. Nevertheless, I don’t think we should lose sight of the fact that the Green Bay defense thoroughly dominated the Atlanta Falcons. Clearly, Rodgers was brilliant, but a less than stellar effort from his defense could have turned this game into a repeat of the 2009 Wild Card loss to Arizona, where the Rodgers-led offense produced 45 points and still lost the game. Fortunately, the Green Bay defense was ready to continue their recent streak of dominating football. They stuffed Michael Turner and the Falcons’ running game (45 yards rushing) and turned Matty Ice into Matty Puddle of Water. The result was less than 200 yards of total offense for Atlanta, four turnovers and barely 20 minutes of time of possession. The Falcons looked like the sixth seed that had to win their last two regular season games and a wild card game on the road just to make it to this point. They didn’t look anything like the conference’s number one seed, which had an extra week to rest before preparing for the Divisional round. Basically, Atlanta seemed to have forgotten all of the good things they had done throughout the season and decided to channel all of the horrific teams that have represented the Falcons over the years. First of all, Atlanta had converted nearly 47% of their third down opportunities during the year, but they converted only three out of 10 on Saturday night. As a result, they only had 15 first downs when they averaged 22 first downs during the regular season. Secondly, the Falcons had the third lowest number of turnovers and the third best turnover ratio during the season, but they gave the ball to Green Bay four times and finished with a -3 turnover ratio. Finally, the Falcons never were able to get their 12th ranked rushing offense going against Green Bay. They averaged nearly 120 yards rushing per game, but the Pack held them to under 50 yards. All in all, the complete performance by Green Bay furthered demonstrated why I picked them to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
(2) The Pittsburgh-Baltimore game was as chippy and hard-hitting as usual, but the uncharacteristic sloppiness by both teams detracted from the general quality of the match-up. Neither team was overly impressive on offense and they combined for five turnovers and nearly 170 penalty yards. In the end, the Steelers won the game because they have Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore doesn’t. It is the same reason why the Steelers have beaten the Ravens seven times in a row with Big Ben starting at quarterback. His ability to thrive under pressure and make big plays at the biggest moments has been a tremendous advantage over what Baltimore has countered with. He doesn’t always look pretty doing it, but Big Ben delivers results, which is the bottom line metric in the NFL. The game against Baltimore was yet another example of Big Ben’s unique ability to stay focused, fight through adversity and emerge victorious on the other side. He played a mediocre first half with a QB rating of 81.6 and a critical fumble that Baltimore returned for a touchdown. Many quarterbacks in the NFL would not have had the mental toughness to recover from a bad first half and a 14-point deficit. Big Ben regrouped in the locker room and emerged even more determined to slay the big, bad Ravens. The result was a stellar second half that included two touchdown passes and a 116.2 QB rating. Big Ben’s most memorable play will be the 58-yard connection with little-used Antonio Brown to set-up the winning touchdown, but he made numerous key plays in the second half that allowed Pittsburgh to come from behind.
On the other side, Baltimore struggled offensively the entire game because Joe Flacco is still not ready to carry a team in the playoffs. Flacco is a solid NFL quarterback, but the brutal truth is that he is not the reason for Baltimore’s playoff success over the last three years. He has been asked to not lose games for the Ravens, while their strong defense and strong running game has led them to victories. In seven career playoff games, Flacco has completed just 53% of his passes. He averages about 150 yards passing per game and only 5.7 yards per attempt. Frankly, he has played horrifically in six out of his seven playoff appearances with the Wild Card victory over Kansas City being the lone exception. It is amazing that Baltimore has won four playoff games in the last three years with such a huge disadvantage at the most important position in football. Until Flacco steps his game up in the playoffs, the Ravens will never take the next step in the evolution from regular playoff participant to legitimate Super Bowl contender. I know that some Flacco apologists will point to the drops by Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and say that it wasn’t all Flacco’s fault, but these folks are missing the other 99% of the game where Flacco was unable to generate any offense. Even when Baltimore scored on offense, they were greatly aided. Their first touchdown came after a 33-yard pass interference penalty on Pittsburgh. Their second touchdown came after Rashard Mendenhall fumbled the ball inside Pittsburgh’s 20-yard line and Ed Reed recovered it. Finally, the only points they scored after halftime came after a decent return by Lardarius Webb set them up deep inside Steelers’ territory. In the second half, they punted or turned the ball over in five of their seven possessions. I can’t blame it all on Flacco but he is the biggest reason why they struggled. In the end, Pittsburgh is going to continue to dominate this rivalry until Flacco starts to match some of Roethlisberger’s heroics. If Baltimore is not careful, we might not be able to call this a rivalry too much longer.
(3) Generally speaking, I don’t like when teams spend too much time trash talking their opponent through the media. I like it even less when a team’s head coach engages in the trash talk. Nevertheless, I’m a little more tolerant of this behavior when the team that talks backs up there bluster. As a result, I don’t have as much of a problem with the N.Y. Jets today as I did last week when they were busy insulting Tom Brady and making the game a match-up between head coaches. The Jets backed up their comments with a redemptive victory over their arch-nemesis, the New England Patriots. Just like Atlanta, the Patriots had everything going for them in this match-up, but watched it all melt away in the most confusing game of the weekend. Statistically speaking, it appeared like New England should have won this game. They had more total yards, more passing yards, more first downs and more time of possession, but they still found themselves down 14 points with just under two minutes remaining in the game. Despite some of their statistical advantages, it still felt like the Jets were dominating the game. Perhaps the reason was that Tom Brady seemed more confused and frustrated than I had seen him in a long time. I believe the Jets dressed some 11 defensive backs (a ridiculous number considering teams can only dress 45 players total), which they deployed in a human cloud to force Brady to hold the football and settle for check-downs. The result of the Jets’ defensive strategy was that they held Brady to less then six yards per attempt and neutralized New England’s two-headed monster at tight end. Another byproduct of forcing Brady to be patient was that it allowed New York’s defensive line to apply pressure without blitzing. The Jets sacked Brady five times and hit him a handful of other times, which further contributed to his frustration. New York even managed to intercept one of Brady’s passes, which was the first time in over 340 attempts that Brady gave one to the other team. The Jets’ game plan was somewhat counterintuitive because you ordinarily want to give elite quarterbacks less time rather than more, but it turned out to be brilliant. In the end, New York avenged their most embarrassing loss of the season while New England saw their wildly successful regular season reduced to rubble.
(2) The Pittsburgh-Baltimore game was as chippy and hard-hitting as usual, but the uncharacteristic sloppiness by both teams detracted from the general quality of the match-up. Neither team was overly impressive on offense and they combined for five turnovers and nearly 170 penalty yards. In the end, the Steelers won the game because they have Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore doesn’t. It is the same reason why the Steelers have beaten the Ravens seven times in a row with Big Ben starting at quarterback. His ability to thrive under pressure and make big plays at the biggest moments has been a tremendous advantage over what Baltimore has countered with. He doesn’t always look pretty doing it, but Big Ben delivers results, which is the bottom line metric in the NFL. The game against Baltimore was yet another example of Big Ben’s unique ability to stay focused, fight through adversity and emerge victorious on the other side. He played a mediocre first half with a QB rating of 81.6 and a critical fumble that Baltimore returned for a touchdown. Many quarterbacks in the NFL would not have had the mental toughness to recover from a bad first half and a 14-point deficit. Big Ben regrouped in the locker room and emerged even more determined to slay the big, bad Ravens. The result was a stellar second half that included two touchdown passes and a 116.2 QB rating. Big Ben’s most memorable play will be the 58-yard connection with little-used Antonio Brown to set-up the winning touchdown, but he made numerous key plays in the second half that allowed Pittsburgh to come from behind.
On the other side, Baltimore struggled offensively the entire game because Joe Flacco is still not ready to carry a team in the playoffs. Flacco is a solid NFL quarterback, but the brutal truth is that he is not the reason for Baltimore’s playoff success over the last three years. He has been asked to not lose games for the Ravens, while their strong defense and strong running game has led them to victories. In seven career playoff games, Flacco has completed just 53% of his passes. He averages about 150 yards passing per game and only 5.7 yards per attempt. Frankly, he has played horrifically in six out of his seven playoff appearances with the Wild Card victory over Kansas City being the lone exception. It is amazing that Baltimore has won four playoff games in the last three years with such a huge disadvantage at the most important position in football. Until Flacco steps his game up in the playoffs, the Ravens will never take the next step in the evolution from regular playoff participant to legitimate Super Bowl contender. I know that some Flacco apologists will point to the drops by Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and say that it wasn’t all Flacco’s fault, but these folks are missing the other 99% of the game where Flacco was unable to generate any offense. Even when Baltimore scored on offense, they were greatly aided. Their first touchdown came after a 33-yard pass interference penalty on Pittsburgh. Their second touchdown came after Rashard Mendenhall fumbled the ball inside Pittsburgh’s 20-yard line and Ed Reed recovered it. Finally, the only points they scored after halftime came after a decent return by Lardarius Webb set them up deep inside Steelers’ territory. In the second half, they punted or turned the ball over in five of their seven possessions. I can’t blame it all on Flacco but he is the biggest reason why they struggled. In the end, Pittsburgh is going to continue to dominate this rivalry until Flacco starts to match some of Roethlisberger’s heroics. If Baltimore is not careful, we might not be able to call this a rivalry too much longer.
(3) Generally speaking, I don’t like when teams spend too much time trash talking their opponent through the media. I like it even less when a team’s head coach engages in the trash talk. Nevertheless, I’m a little more tolerant of this behavior when the team that talks backs up there bluster. As a result, I don’t have as much of a problem with the N.Y. Jets today as I did last week when they were busy insulting Tom Brady and making the game a match-up between head coaches. The Jets backed up their comments with a redemptive victory over their arch-nemesis, the New England Patriots. Just like Atlanta, the Patriots had everything going for them in this match-up, but watched it all melt away in the most confusing game of the weekend. Statistically speaking, it appeared like New England should have won this game. They had more total yards, more passing yards, more first downs and more time of possession, but they still found themselves down 14 points with just under two minutes remaining in the game. Despite some of their statistical advantages, it still felt like the Jets were dominating the game. Perhaps the reason was that Tom Brady seemed more confused and frustrated than I had seen him in a long time. I believe the Jets dressed some 11 defensive backs (a ridiculous number considering teams can only dress 45 players total), which they deployed in a human cloud to force Brady to hold the football and settle for check-downs. The result of the Jets’ defensive strategy was that they held Brady to less then six yards per attempt and neutralized New England’s two-headed monster at tight end. Another byproduct of forcing Brady to be patient was that it allowed New York’s defensive line to apply pressure without blitzing. The Jets sacked Brady five times and hit him a handful of other times, which further contributed to his frustration. New York even managed to intercept one of Brady’s passes, which was the first time in over 340 attempts that Brady gave one to the other team. The Jets’ game plan was somewhat counterintuitive because you ordinarily want to give elite quarterbacks less time rather than more, but it turned out to be brilliant. In the end, New York avenged their most embarrassing loss of the season while New England saw their wildly successful regular season reduced to rubble.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Offensive & Defensive Keys for Seattle
Offensive Keys
1. Lead with the pass
- Bears are much worse against the pass then they are against the run (ranked 20th in the NFL)
- In the first match-up, Matt Hasselbeck played one of his most efficient games of the season
- Need to keep Hasselbeck clean for this strategy to be successful (zero sacks allowed in the first game)
2. Get value from running game
- Hawks don't need to rush for 200 yards but they need to average at least 4.0 yds/carry (first game Hawks averaged 3.6 yds/carry)
- Call run plays at unpredictable times
3. Win the returns
- Hawks and Bears both have great return games
- Seattle is in the top 10 in both punt and kickoff returns; Chicago is #1 in punt returns and #2 in kickoff return average
- Seattle must contain Devin Hester and need Leon Washington to make an impact
Defensive Keys
1. Force the Bears to be one-dimensional (pass happy Bears will make Seattle happy)
- In first match-up, Chicago had its worst pass-run mix of the year (25 more passes than runs)
- First seven games of the season, the Bears threw the ball 58% of the time (record: 4-3)
- Last nine games of the season, the Bears threw the ball 49% of the time (record: 7-2)
2. Pressurize the pocket
- Seattle had six sacks in the first meeting
- Chicago has allowed a league-high 56 sacks during the year and never had a single game where they didn't allow a sack
3. Force the Bears to put together long drives
- Jon Ryan needs to help the Hawks win the field position battle with a good day punting
- Make Chicago execute; they are 27th in the league in third down conversions (32.8% conversion rate)
- Limit big plays; Cutler is 7th in the league in yards/attempt despite being 17th in the league in passing yards and 16th in the league in QB rating; Johnny Knox is 5th in the league in yards/reception and has 17 catches of 20+ yards
4. Bend but don't break
- Force field goals when the Bears are in the red zone
- Chicago is converting nearly 55% of their red zone opportunities into touchdown over the last nine games after converting just 30% in their first seven games
1. Lead with the pass
- Bears are much worse against the pass then they are against the run (ranked 20th in the NFL)
- In the first match-up, Matt Hasselbeck played one of his most efficient games of the season
- Need to keep Hasselbeck clean for this strategy to be successful (zero sacks allowed in the first game)
2. Get value from running game
- Hawks don't need to rush for 200 yards but they need to average at least 4.0 yds/carry (first game Hawks averaged 3.6 yds/carry)
- Call run plays at unpredictable times
3. Win the returns
- Hawks and Bears both have great return games
- Seattle is in the top 10 in both punt and kickoff returns; Chicago is #1 in punt returns and #2 in kickoff return average
- Seattle must contain Devin Hester and need Leon Washington to make an impact
Defensive Keys
1. Force the Bears to be one-dimensional (pass happy Bears will make Seattle happy)
- In first match-up, Chicago had its worst pass-run mix of the year (25 more passes than runs)
- First seven games of the season, the Bears threw the ball 58% of the time (record: 4-3)
- Last nine games of the season, the Bears threw the ball 49% of the time (record: 7-2)
2. Pressurize the pocket
- Seattle had six sacks in the first meeting
- Chicago has allowed a league-high 56 sacks during the year and never had a single game where they didn't allow a sack
3. Force the Bears to put together long drives
- Jon Ryan needs to help the Hawks win the field position battle with a good day punting
- Make Chicago execute; they are 27th in the league in third down conversions (32.8% conversion rate)
- Limit big plays; Cutler is 7th in the league in yards/attempt despite being 17th in the league in passing yards and 16th in the league in QB rating; Johnny Knox is 5th in the league in yards/reception and has 17 catches of 20+ yards
4. Bend but don't break
- Force field goals when the Bears are in the red zone
- Chicago is converting nearly 55% of their red zone opportunities into touchdown over the last nine games after converting just 30% in their first seven games
Wild Card Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Since 2005, the NFC West is a combined 9-5 and has won at least one game each postseason. Its collective .643 win percentage is the best divisional postseason record in the NFL during that span.
Stat of the week No. 2: Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns in his two career playoff starts, which is the most for any player in NFL history in his first two postseason starts (previous record is six touchdowns held by a group of players including Aaron Brooks, Kurt Warner, Frank Reich and Danny White).
Stat of the week No. 3: After forcing five turnovers against Kansas City, the Ravens have forced at least four turnovers in each of the last three seasons during the wild card round.
Stat of the week No. 4: Dwayne Bowe was not targeted on a single play in Sunday’s Wild Card game. It was the first time all season that happened to the NFL’s leading receiver with 15 touchdowns.
Stat of the week No. 5: Peyton Manning has a 9-10 playoff record in his career.
Stat of the week No. 2: Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns in his two career playoff starts, which is the most for any player in NFL history in his first two postseason starts (previous record is six touchdowns held by a group of players including Aaron Brooks, Kurt Warner, Frank Reich and Danny White).
Stat of the week No. 3: After forcing five turnovers against Kansas City, the Ravens have forced at least four turnovers in each of the last three seasons during the wild card round.
Stat of the week No. 4: Dwayne Bowe was not targeted on a single play in Sunday’s Wild Card game. It was the first time all season that happened to the NFL’s leading receiver with 15 touchdowns.
Stat of the week No. 5: Peyton Manning has a 9-10 playoff record in his career.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Wild Card Weekend Picks
Here are my picks for the Wildcard Round (home teams in CAPS):
New Orleans over SEATTLE
INDIANAPOLIS over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over KANSAS CITY
Green Bay over PHILADELPHIA
Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 141-84 (missed week two)
New Orleans over SEATTLE
INDIANAPOLIS over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over KANSAS CITY
Green Bay over PHILADELPHIA
Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 141-84 (missed week two)
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Week 17 Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Devin Hester led NFL with 17.1 yard punt return average, which is the best season in NFL history (minimum of 30 returns).
Stat of the week No. 2: Matt Ryan has 33 wins as a starter in his first three seasons, which ties Dan Marino for the most wins since at least 1970.
Stat of the week No. 3: Indianapolis earned their ninth consecutive 10-win season, which is the second-longest streak ever (16 straight 10-win seasons for San Francisco between 1983-1998). Colts also made their ninth straight playoff appearance, which ties Dallas (1975-1983) as the longest streak in NFL history.
Stat of the week No. 4: Oakland Raiders became the first team in NFL history to finish with a 6-0 divisional mark and not make the playoffs.
Stat of the week No. 5: Derrick Mason became the third player in NFL history to have 60+ catches in 11 consecutive seasons.
Stat of the week No. 2: Matt Ryan has 33 wins as a starter in his first three seasons, which ties Dan Marino for the most wins since at least 1970.
Stat of the week No. 3: Indianapolis earned their ninth consecutive 10-win season, which is the second-longest streak ever (16 straight 10-win seasons for San Francisco between 1983-1998). Colts also made their ninth straight playoff appearance, which ties Dallas (1975-1983) as the longest streak in NFL history.
Stat of the week No. 4: Oakland Raiders became the first team in NFL history to finish with a 6-0 divisional mark and not make the playoffs.
Stat of the week No. 5: Derrick Mason became the third player in NFL history to have 60+ catches in 11 consecutive seasons.
Green Bay rides defense to the playoffs and other NFL thoughts
(1) The Green Bay Packers have had quite the roller coaster season. They entered 2010 as a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on the strength of an MVP candidate at quarterback, a plethora of offensive weapons and a top five defense. Unfortunately, reality did not play out according to the script largely due to a rash of significant injuries and the team’s inability to win close games. The injury bug struck early and often as the Packers lost key playmakers on both sides of the ball (e.g., JerMichael Finley, Ryan Grant, Nick Barnett). The loss of Grant was perhaps the most damaging because the Packers running game never recovered and it placed an inordinate amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers to deliver the goods on a weekly basis. Without the collective security blanket provided by the running game, Green Bay lost three games in the first six weeks by three points apiece, including overtime losses to Washington and Miami. Finley’s loss meant that defenses were able to focus more of their attention on Rodgers’ favorite target, Greg Jennings, which led to more offensive adjustments that took awhile to take effect. Before the bye week, Jennings had more than 90 yards receiving just once, while he had five such games in the final seven games of the season. Just when the Packers seemed to be hitting their offensive stride while winning five out of six games between week seven and week 13, they lost Rodgers to a concussion during an ugly week 14 loss to Detroit. Rodgers returned in week 16 to hang 45 points on the N.Y. Giants, but the offense struggled yet again in the season finale with only 10 points against the jacked up Chicago defense. As a result of their up and down season, the Packers have to travel to Philadelphia for a wild card match-up in a reprise of their season opening game won by Green Bay 27-20. The Packers were only 3-5 on the road this season, so they are going to need an improved performance from Rodgers, who posted his third-worst quarterback rating this year in the win over the Eagles.
Thankfully, the Packers defense is playing some of its best football of the year right now, which might provide enough of a margin for error that Rodgers won’t have to be perfect. The defense, led by Clay Matthews, finished the season ranked second in the NFL in points allowed and has only allowed an average of 13.9 points per game in their final seven games. In addition, the Packers defense is being stingier against the pass down the stretch. They are allowing fewer passing yards per game, fewer yards per attempt and a lower quarterback rating over their last seven games than their season averages in those categories. The two biggest reasons that the Packers are allowing fewer points and being tougher on opposing passers are that they are averaging nearly three sacks per game and holding their opponents to only a 30% conversion rate on third down since the bye week. Their ability to apply consistent pressure and get off the field on third down has greatly reduced their opponents’ opportunities to score points. It is impressive that the Packers have actually improved in these areas when you consider that they have been good at sacking quarterbacks and limiting third down conversions throughout the entire year. The end result has been that the Green Bay defense has kept the team in games all season long as the offense has found consistency an elusive goal. The big question is whether the Packers can continue their defensive dominance against a very different Eagles team than the one they faced on opening day. If you don’t remember, Kevin Kolb was Philadelphia’s starting quarterback that day before leaving with an injury, which opened the door for Mike Vick to become the biggest story in the NFL. Vick nearly led the Eagles back from a 20-3 third quarter deficit despite getting very few practice repetitions leading up to the game. This time around, Vick will prepare as the starting quarterback and will present an even greater challenge to the Packers defense than the first time around. Even though Vick won’t be completely healthy, it is going to be great theatre to see him match his talents against the likes of Matthews, Charles Woodson, B.J. Raji and Tramon Williams.
(2) In a season where parity reigned supreme, I was sure that the shelf life for Indianapolis playoff appearances had finally expired. With four games to go, the Colts stood at 6-6, one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, and faced the prospect of having to win out to make their ninth consecutive playoff appearance. I, along with many others, believed that the number of significant injuries suffered by the Colts, as well as their complete lack of a running game, would signify the end of their dominance in the division. Even with a fairly soft schedule, there was no way that the Colts would be able to rally the troops for one more playoff run. As we now know, we were all completely wrong about Indianapolis. They not only made a run to the postseason, but they won their seventh division title in eight seasons along the way. They were even able to snatch the number three seed away from the Chiefs! It was an amazing turn of events for a team that had treaded water through twelve weeks, which included a three game losing streak in which Peyton Manning threw a remarkable 11 interceptions. With Manning’s game lacking the normal superhuman component, it looked to be a certainty that the Colts would be picking in the first 20 selections of the 2011 draft for the first time in quite awhile. Instead, the Colts turned the table on all of the so-called experts in large part due to mistake-free football from Manning and a rediscovery of the running game. After his horrible play during weeks 11-13, Manning threw only two interceptions in the last four games while tossing nine touchdowns to help the Colts average 29.5 points and score 30+ points on three different occasions down the stretch. It is a testament to Manning’s talent, preparation and determination that he was able to right the ship after a stretch of football that left a foul stench throughout Lucas Oil Field. Manning was being questioned from every direction in an attempt to identify the cause of his poor play, but he kept working diligently and proved once again why he is one of the best to ever play the quarterback position.
Even though Manning deserves a lot of credit for what happened in the last four weeks of the season, he was helped greatly by the sudden emergence of the Colts’ running game that had been AWOL all season long. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Colts averaged a mere 79.1 rushing yards per game. In the last four games of the year, Indianapolis ramped up their running game to the tune of 133.5 yards per game. They obviously didn’t acquire Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, but they made some schematic changes to their offense to find ways to squeeze more productivity from their running game. The offensive staff of the Colts deserves a ton of credit for devising game plans in the final month of the season that turned a moribund rushing attack into a tremendous asset heading into their wild card match-up with the N.Y. Jets. It is these kinds of adjustments that continue to demonstrate why the Colts have been a dominant force in the AFC over the last decade. They are one of the best teams in the NFL in putting their players in the best position to be successful and they have a system of accountability that doesn’t accept drop-offs when younger players have to replace more established stars. Last season, it was Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepping into the spotlight when Anthony Gonzalez got injured and Marvin Harrison retired. This season, Jacob Tamme, Blair White and Javarris James, among others, have stepped into the void created by injuries to Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai to become important contributors. The flexibility and creativity shown by the Colts organization are just more reasons that Indianapolis is one of the few model franchises in the NFL. With a Hall of Fame quarterback and a proven system, the Colts are once again poised for a deep run in the playoffs.
(3) Week 17 News and Notes:
• The Cleveland Browns requested permission to interview N.Y. Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell for their open head coaching position. Fewell has been one of the hotter names on the coaching carousel, but the late season collapse of his defense will probably give a few owners and general managers pause. Most importantly, if the Browns actually interview Fewell, it will satisfy the NFL requirement to bring in at least one minority candidate under the Rooney Rule.
• Surprisingly, it is now being reported that Marvin Lewis will actually sign a new contract with the Cincinnati Bengals. Lewis has long asked for changes in the organization, including more control over personnel decisions, and a covered practice field. It appears that those differences will be resolved prior to Lewis signing his new deal.
• The Dallas Cowboys could announce their new head coach as early as Tuesday according to statements made by owner Jerry Jones. Jason Garrett still appears to be the front-runner, but the Cowboys will interview wide receivers coach Ray Sherman on Tuesday. Dallas also received permission to interview Miami assistant coach Todd Bowles.
• The Houston Texans fired Frank Bush as their defensive coordinator and now appear poised to hire former Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Wade Phillips as their next coordinator.
• Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, one of the leaders in labor talks between the NFL and the players union, is pessimistic about the progress being made in labor negotiations. Richardson’s negative statements came on the heels of Commissioner Roger Goodell’s email sent to an estimated five million fans saying that he was optimistic a deal could be worked out. Sources have indicated that Goodell was aware that Richardson was going to make his statement and did not discourage him.
Thankfully, the Packers defense is playing some of its best football of the year right now, which might provide enough of a margin for error that Rodgers won’t have to be perfect. The defense, led by Clay Matthews, finished the season ranked second in the NFL in points allowed and has only allowed an average of 13.9 points per game in their final seven games. In addition, the Packers defense is being stingier against the pass down the stretch. They are allowing fewer passing yards per game, fewer yards per attempt and a lower quarterback rating over their last seven games than their season averages in those categories. The two biggest reasons that the Packers are allowing fewer points and being tougher on opposing passers are that they are averaging nearly three sacks per game and holding their opponents to only a 30% conversion rate on third down since the bye week. Their ability to apply consistent pressure and get off the field on third down has greatly reduced their opponents’ opportunities to score points. It is impressive that the Packers have actually improved in these areas when you consider that they have been good at sacking quarterbacks and limiting third down conversions throughout the entire year. The end result has been that the Green Bay defense has kept the team in games all season long as the offense has found consistency an elusive goal. The big question is whether the Packers can continue their defensive dominance against a very different Eagles team than the one they faced on opening day. If you don’t remember, Kevin Kolb was Philadelphia’s starting quarterback that day before leaving with an injury, which opened the door for Mike Vick to become the biggest story in the NFL. Vick nearly led the Eagles back from a 20-3 third quarter deficit despite getting very few practice repetitions leading up to the game. This time around, Vick will prepare as the starting quarterback and will present an even greater challenge to the Packers defense than the first time around. Even though Vick won’t be completely healthy, it is going to be great theatre to see him match his talents against the likes of Matthews, Charles Woodson, B.J. Raji and Tramon Williams.
(2) In a season where parity reigned supreme, I was sure that the shelf life for Indianapolis playoff appearances had finally expired. With four games to go, the Colts stood at 6-6, one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, and faced the prospect of having to win out to make their ninth consecutive playoff appearance. I, along with many others, believed that the number of significant injuries suffered by the Colts, as well as their complete lack of a running game, would signify the end of their dominance in the division. Even with a fairly soft schedule, there was no way that the Colts would be able to rally the troops for one more playoff run. As we now know, we were all completely wrong about Indianapolis. They not only made a run to the postseason, but they won their seventh division title in eight seasons along the way. They were even able to snatch the number three seed away from the Chiefs! It was an amazing turn of events for a team that had treaded water through twelve weeks, which included a three game losing streak in which Peyton Manning threw a remarkable 11 interceptions. With Manning’s game lacking the normal superhuman component, it looked to be a certainty that the Colts would be picking in the first 20 selections of the 2011 draft for the first time in quite awhile. Instead, the Colts turned the table on all of the so-called experts in large part due to mistake-free football from Manning and a rediscovery of the running game. After his horrible play during weeks 11-13, Manning threw only two interceptions in the last four games while tossing nine touchdowns to help the Colts average 29.5 points and score 30+ points on three different occasions down the stretch. It is a testament to Manning’s talent, preparation and determination that he was able to right the ship after a stretch of football that left a foul stench throughout Lucas Oil Field. Manning was being questioned from every direction in an attempt to identify the cause of his poor play, but he kept working diligently and proved once again why he is one of the best to ever play the quarterback position.
Even though Manning deserves a lot of credit for what happened in the last four weeks of the season, he was helped greatly by the sudden emergence of the Colts’ running game that had been AWOL all season long. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Colts averaged a mere 79.1 rushing yards per game. In the last four games of the year, Indianapolis ramped up their running game to the tune of 133.5 yards per game. They obviously didn’t acquire Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, but they made some schematic changes to their offense to find ways to squeeze more productivity from their running game. The offensive staff of the Colts deserves a ton of credit for devising game plans in the final month of the season that turned a moribund rushing attack into a tremendous asset heading into their wild card match-up with the N.Y. Jets. It is these kinds of adjustments that continue to demonstrate why the Colts have been a dominant force in the AFC over the last decade. They are one of the best teams in the NFL in putting their players in the best position to be successful and they have a system of accountability that doesn’t accept drop-offs when younger players have to replace more established stars. Last season, it was Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepping into the spotlight when Anthony Gonzalez got injured and Marvin Harrison retired. This season, Jacob Tamme, Blair White and Javarris James, among others, have stepped into the void created by injuries to Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai to become important contributors. The flexibility and creativity shown by the Colts organization are just more reasons that Indianapolis is one of the few model franchises in the NFL. With a Hall of Fame quarterback and a proven system, the Colts are once again poised for a deep run in the playoffs.
(3) Week 17 News and Notes:
• The Cleveland Browns requested permission to interview N.Y. Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell for their open head coaching position. Fewell has been one of the hotter names on the coaching carousel, but the late season collapse of his defense will probably give a few owners and general managers pause. Most importantly, if the Browns actually interview Fewell, it will satisfy the NFL requirement to bring in at least one minority candidate under the Rooney Rule.
• Surprisingly, it is now being reported that Marvin Lewis will actually sign a new contract with the Cincinnati Bengals. Lewis has long asked for changes in the organization, including more control over personnel decisions, and a covered practice field. It appears that those differences will be resolved prior to Lewis signing his new deal.
• The Dallas Cowboys could announce their new head coach as early as Tuesday according to statements made by owner Jerry Jones. Jason Garrett still appears to be the front-runner, but the Cowboys will interview wide receivers coach Ray Sherman on Tuesday. Dallas also received permission to interview Miami assistant coach Todd Bowles.
• The Houston Texans fired Frank Bush as their defensive coordinator and now appear poised to hire former Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Wade Phillips as their next coordinator.
• Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, one of the leaders in labor talks between the NFL and the players union, is pessimistic about the progress being made in labor negotiations. Richardson’s negative statements came on the heels of Commissioner Roger Goodell’s email sent to an estimated five million fans saying that he was optimistic a deal could be worked out. Sources have indicated that Goodell was aware that Richardson was going to make his statement and did not discourage him.
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