Green Bay rides defense to the playoffs and other NFL thoughts

(1) The Green Bay Packers have had quite the roller coaster season. They entered 2010 as a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on the strength of an MVP candidate at quarterback, a plethora of offensive weapons and a top five defense. Unfortunately, reality did not play out according to the script largely due to a rash of significant injuries and the team’s inability to win close games. The injury bug struck early and often as the Packers lost key playmakers on both sides of the ball (e.g., JerMichael Finley, Ryan Grant, Nick Barnett). The loss of Grant was perhaps the most damaging because the Packers running game never recovered and it placed an inordinate amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers to deliver the goods on a weekly basis. Without the collective security blanket provided by the running game, Green Bay lost three games in the first six weeks by three points apiece, including overtime losses to Washington and Miami. Finley’s loss meant that defenses were able to focus more of their attention on Rodgers’ favorite target, Greg Jennings, which led to more offensive adjustments that took awhile to take effect. Before the bye week, Jennings had more than 90 yards receiving just once, while he had five such games in the final seven games of the season. Just when the Packers seemed to be hitting their offensive stride while winning five out of six games between week seven and week 13, they lost Rodgers to a concussion during an ugly week 14 loss to Detroit. Rodgers returned in week 16 to hang 45 points on the N.Y. Giants, but the offense struggled yet again in the season finale with only 10 points against the jacked up Chicago defense. As a result of their up and down season, the Packers have to travel to Philadelphia for a wild card match-up in a reprise of their season opening game won by Green Bay 27-20. The Packers were only 3-5 on the road this season, so they are going to need an improved performance from Rodgers, who posted his third-worst quarterback rating this year in the win over the Eagles.

Thankfully, the Packers defense is playing some of its best football of the year right now, which might provide enough of a margin for error that Rodgers won’t have to be perfect. The defense, led by Clay Matthews, finished the season ranked second in the NFL in points allowed and has only allowed an average of 13.9 points per game in their final seven games. In addition, the Packers defense is being stingier against the pass down the stretch. They are allowing fewer passing yards per game, fewer yards per attempt and a lower quarterback rating over their last seven games than their season averages in those categories. The two biggest reasons that the Packers are allowing fewer points and being tougher on opposing passers are that they are averaging nearly three sacks per game and holding their opponents to only a 30% conversion rate on third down since the bye week. Their ability to apply consistent pressure and get off the field on third down has greatly reduced their opponents’ opportunities to score points. It is impressive that the Packers have actually improved in these areas when you consider that they have been good at sacking quarterbacks and limiting third down conversions throughout the entire year. The end result has been that the Green Bay defense has kept the team in games all season long as the offense has found consistency an elusive goal. The big question is whether the Packers can continue their defensive dominance against a very different Eagles team than the one they faced on opening day. If you don’t remember, Kevin Kolb was Philadelphia’s starting quarterback that day before leaving with an injury, which opened the door for Mike Vick to become the biggest story in the NFL. Vick nearly led the Eagles back from a 20-3 third quarter deficit despite getting very few practice repetitions leading up to the game. This time around, Vick will prepare as the starting quarterback and will present an even greater challenge to the Packers defense than the first time around. Even though Vick won’t be completely healthy, it is going to be great theatre to see him match his talents against the likes of Matthews, Charles Woodson, B.J. Raji and Tramon Williams.

(2) In a season where parity reigned supreme, I was sure that the shelf life for Indianapolis playoff appearances had finally expired. With four games to go, the Colts stood at 6-6, one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, and faced the prospect of having to win out to make their ninth consecutive playoff appearance. I, along with many others, believed that the number of significant injuries suffered by the Colts, as well as their complete lack of a running game, would signify the end of their dominance in the division. Even with a fairly soft schedule, there was no way that the Colts would be able to rally the troops for one more playoff run. As we now know, we were all completely wrong about Indianapolis. They not only made a run to the postseason, but they won their seventh division title in eight seasons along the way. They were even able to snatch the number three seed away from the Chiefs! It was an amazing turn of events for a team that had treaded water through twelve weeks, which included a three game losing streak in which Peyton Manning threw a remarkable 11 interceptions. With Manning’s game lacking the normal superhuman component, it looked to be a certainty that the Colts would be picking in the first 20 selections of the 2011 draft for the first time in quite awhile. Instead, the Colts turned the table on all of the so-called experts in large part due to mistake-free football from Manning and a rediscovery of the running game. After his horrible play during weeks 11-13, Manning threw only two interceptions in the last four games while tossing nine touchdowns to help the Colts average 29.5 points and score 30+ points on three different occasions down the stretch. It is a testament to Manning’s talent, preparation and determination that he was able to right the ship after a stretch of football that left a foul stench throughout Lucas Oil Field. Manning was being questioned from every direction in an attempt to identify the cause of his poor play, but he kept working diligently and proved once again why he is one of the best to ever play the quarterback position.

Even though Manning deserves a lot of credit for what happened in the last four weeks of the season, he was helped greatly by the sudden emergence of the Colts’ running game that had been AWOL all season long. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Colts averaged a mere 79.1 rushing yards per game. In the last four games of the year, Indianapolis ramped up their running game to the tune of 133.5 yards per game. They obviously didn’t acquire Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, but they made some schematic changes to their offense to find ways to squeeze more productivity from their running game. The offensive staff of the Colts deserves a ton of credit for devising game plans in the final month of the season that turned a moribund rushing attack into a tremendous asset heading into their wild card match-up with the N.Y. Jets. It is these kinds of adjustments that continue to demonstrate why the Colts have been a dominant force in the AFC over the last decade. They are one of the best teams in the NFL in putting their players in the best position to be successful and they have a system of accountability that doesn’t accept drop-offs when younger players have to replace more established stars. Last season, it was Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stepping into the spotlight when Anthony Gonzalez got injured and Marvin Harrison retired. This season, Jacob Tamme, Blair White and Javarris James, among others, have stepped into the void created by injuries to Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai to become important contributors. The flexibility and creativity shown by the Colts organization are just more reasons that Indianapolis is one of the few model franchises in the NFL. With a Hall of Fame quarterback and a proven system, the Colts are once again poised for a deep run in the playoffs.

(3) Week 17 News and Notes:

• The Cleveland Browns requested permission to interview N.Y. Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell for their open head coaching position. Fewell has been one of the hotter names on the coaching carousel, but the late season collapse of his defense will probably give a few owners and general managers pause. Most importantly, if the Browns actually interview Fewell, it will satisfy the NFL requirement to bring in at least one minority candidate under the Rooney Rule.

• Surprisingly, it is now being reported that Marvin Lewis will actually sign a new contract with the Cincinnati Bengals. Lewis has long asked for changes in the organization, including more control over personnel decisions, and a covered practice field. It appears that those differences will be resolved prior to Lewis signing his new deal.

• The Dallas Cowboys could announce their new head coach as early as Tuesday according to statements made by owner Jerry Jones. Jason Garrett still appears to be the front-runner, but the Cowboys will interview wide receivers coach Ray Sherman on Tuesday. Dallas also received permission to interview Miami assistant coach Todd Bowles.

• The Houston Texans fired Frank Bush as their defensive coordinator and now appear poised to hire former Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Wade Phillips as their next coordinator.

• Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, one of the leaders in labor talks between the NFL and the players union, is pessimistic about the progress being made in labor negotiations. Richardson’s negative statements came on the heels of Commissioner Roger Goodell’s email sent to an estimated five million fans saying that he was optimistic a deal could be worked out. Sources have indicated that Goodell was aware that Richardson was going to make his statement and did not discourage him.