Week 17 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 17 (home teams in CAPS):

CARDINALS over Seahawks
Lions over PACKERS
49ers over RAMS
DOLPHINS over Jets
VIKINGS over Bears
PATRIOTS over Bills
Panthers over SAINTS
EAGLES over Redskins
Colts over JAGUARS
Titans over TEXANS
FALCONS over Buccaneers
BENGALS over Ravens
Steelers over BROWNS
BRONCOS over Chiefs
Chargers over RAIDERS
GIANTS over Cowboys

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 155-85

Week 16 Stats of the Week

Stat of the Week No. 1: Green Bay became the fifth defending champ since 1990 to earn the number one seed (1990 - 49ers, 1993 - Cowboys, 1998 - Broncos, 2008 - Giants).

Stat of the Week No. 2: Victor Cruz owns the record for most receiving yards in New York Giants history with 1,358 yards.  Cruz also set another franchise record with his sixth 100-yard receiving game of the season.

Stat of the Week No. 3: Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall became the first Dolphins' teammates to have 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a single season in the history of the franchise.

Stat of the Week No. 4: New England's win marked the 10th time this season that a team trailed by at least 17 points and came back to win, which is the most in a single season in NFL history.

Stat of the Week No. 5: Christmas Eve marked the first time in NFL history that two different quarterbacks threw 90+ yard touchdown passes on the same day (Cam Newton, Eli Manning).

Bonus Stat of the Week: Bill Belichick & George Seifert are the only head coaches in NFL history with 13+ wins in four different seasons.  Belichick can become the first coach with five such seasons with a victory over Buffalo in week 17.

An NFC South rivalry renewed and other NFL thoughts

(1) The Atlanta-New Orleans rivalry doesn't get as much publicity as the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rivalry or even some of the NFC East rivalries, but rest assured that when the Saints and Falcons get together it is as chippy and hard-fought as any other.  Prior to Monday night, this bitter and tightly contested series had seen the last six games decided by a touchdown or less and the past four by a field goal each.  Last night, however, the Saints demonstrated for the entire nation how much the gap between the two teams was growing as the playoffs loom.  They didn't just beat their arch-rival handily, they dominated the Falcons in every phase of the game.  First of all, the New Orleans offense stayed on the field on night long as they converted 77% of their third down opportunities against a defense that was hell-bent on stopping them.  The Falcons shouldn't feel too bad about their inability to get off the field against the Saints because New Orleans entered the game leading the NFL in third down efficiency with a 55% conversion rate.  Secondly, New Orleans flaunted their abundance of offensive riches as five different players scored touchdowns and Drew Brees accounted for four of the TDs through the air.  The Saints were so good even though they were two men down as Mark Ingram didn't dress for the game and Lance Moore went off with an injury in the first half.  With Brees calling the shots and talented guys like Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham making plays with the football, this is an offense that no defense wants to face in the playoffs.  Finally, the Saints exhibited an offensive balance that was reminiscent of their Super Bowl-winning season of 2010.  Although he struggled at times in the second half, Brees still threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.  In addition, they got 164 yards rushing from their three-headed running attack and they averaged an eye-popping 7.1 yards per carry along the way.  After all was said and done, it is safe to say that the Falcons want no part of the Saints in the playoffs.  As a result, they have to take care of business against Tampa Bay this coming Sunday and hope and pray that the Green Bay Packers find a way to beat the Detroit Lions, so that they can be the five seed and earn a trip to New York or Dallas instead of a Wild Card weekend visit to the Bayou.

You can excuse the Saints' fans for getting excited like a kid on Christmas at the prospect of hosting the Falcons in the playoffs after the way that their offense has dominated Atlanta mentally and physically this season.  In the first meeting, the specter of facing Drew Brees even one more time caused Mike Smith to make the ill-fated decision to go for a fourth down deep in his own territory.  Last night, Smith and his defensive coaches had no answer for the record-setting quarterback when the game was still in doubt in the first half.  Brees wasn't perfect, but he did just enough to bring down one of the game's most hallowed records, which had been owned by Dan Marino for the past 27 seasons.  Even though Brees' new record for passing yards in a season probably won't last as long as Marino's, he can still be proud of his accomplishments especially when you consider the adversity that he has faced in his career.  If you remember back to when he came out of Purdue University, there were many "experts" that believed he was too short to play the quarterback position in the NFL.  After he hurt his shoulder following several productive seasons in San Diego, there were many "experts," including Nick Saban, that believed he was damaged goods.  When he signed with New Orleans, both sides were taking a leap of faith, but no one can complain about how things have turned out.  In his six seasons in the Bayou, Brees has delivered three division titles, one Super Bowl victory and countless memorable moments.  It is pretty clear that the Saints are the NFC's best hope to dethrone the Packers, so there may be a few more wonderful memories to be created in the next month or so.

(2) The New York Jets are the biggest phonies in the NFL.  They are supposed to "Ground and Pound", but their offense has been grounded and their defense has usually been the one being pounded.  This is what happens when your running game consists of a not-ready-for-primetime Shonn Greene and an over-the-hill LaDanian Tomlinson or when your defense prefers to live off their reputation rather than to continually establish new reputations.  They are supposed to be the Road Warriors that have won four road playoff games over the last two seasons on their way to back-to-back conference championship game appearances.  Unfortunately, it has struck midnight on their penchant for winning road games because their 2-5 road record has nearly unraveled their season completely.  Now they face a must-win game in South Beach to keep their dimming playoff hopes alive.  Even if they do manage to pull a rabbit out of their hat against the Dolphins, they are still unlikely to make the postseason because they need about half the NFL to help them out by losing.  They are supposed to be the biggest bullies on the block behind a physical offense, suffocating defense and confident coaching staff.  Unfortunately, they have failed to deliver on any of things they sold their fans before the season started.  Being a Jets' fan must feel like getting an Etch-a-sketch when you ordered an iPad2.  Their failures start and end with two people: Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez.  Ryan continued to talk tougher and tougher even when the checks he was writing were obviously never going to be cashed.  Even though he would probably claim that his comments were the result of the confidence he had in his team, it became very apparent that they were fast becoming a distraction and overcompensation for something that was lurking underneath the surface.  Ultimately, Rex needs to shut his mouth because it is never a good idea when the head coach overshadows the rest of the organization.  Hopefully, this latest indignity suffered at the hands of the New York Giants, in addition to his confrontation with Brandon Jacobs, will cause Ryan to take it down two notches.  Sadly, the Jets could have overcome Ryan's bragging and boasting had they had a credible NFL quarterback calling the shots.  Sanchez had managed to "manage" his way to the doorstep of the Super Bowl on two different occasions, but it is clear that he is a player whose confidence has been shot full of more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese.  How many more bounced passes or passes sailed over the heads of receivers will it take before the Jets realize that they have a problem at quarterback?  On Christmas Eve, it was apparent to anyone that watched that Sanchez was not only the worst quarterback in New York City, but also the worst quarterback in the AFC East.  Personally, as a fan of the Seattle Seahawks, I'm ecstatic that they chose Aaron Curry over Sanchez because I would rather miss on a linebacker than on a player who was supposed to be a franchise quarterback.  In the end, it will probably be a good thing to miss the playoffs because perhaps the Jets can use the time to reflect on their mistakes and come back better for it in 2012.

(3) Quick Hits

• Fair or unfair, Tony Romo's legacy is going to be further tarnished by the injury that knocked him out of the loss to the Eagles.  Even though the Cowboys would not have clinched anything by beating Philadelphia, it is another example of a time when Romo was unable to deliver when his team needed him most.  Does anyone, outside of the Dallas Metroplex, believe that Dallas is going to march in to MetLife Stadium and exit with a victory?  If so, then I have some waterfront property that you might interest you in Omaha, Nebraska.
• The shine has quickly rubbed off of Tebow mania following back-to-back blowout losses to New England and Buffalo.  The biggest concern for Broncos' fans is that the take-care-of-the-football Tebow that they saw during the 7-1 stretch has morphed into the second coming of Akili Smith.  Tebow has fumbled the football three times (losing one) in the last two weeks and he threw four huge interceptions in the loss to Buffalo.  If the Chiefs can force Tebow to make mistakes, then Kyle Orton will likely get his revenge.
• The Indianapolis Colts are quickly playing themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  After winning two games in a row, they are deadlocked with the St. Louis Rams for the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  They would still own the pick, based on tiebreakers, if they end the year with the same record.  Unfortunately, the Colts have about a 50-50 chance to beat the Jaguars in Week 17, while the Rams have no chance to beat San Francisco this weekend.
• The Ravens better hope that they earn a top two seed in the AFC because I wouldn't bet on them in a road game if I was using my worst enemy's money.  Baltimore is a pristine 8-0 at home following their 20-14 victory over Cleveland, but they are only 3-4 on the road.  One of their road victories was at Pittsburgh, but they have had some ugly losses away from Chesapeake Bay.
• Congratulations to the Detroit Lions for making the playoffs for the first time since 1999.  They nearly had their season permanently implode in the middle, but they have rebounded nicely behind Matthew Stafford, who has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions during their current three-game winning streak.

Week 16 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 16 (home teams in CAPS):

COLTS over Texans
SEAHAWKS over 49ers
Broncos over BILLS
BENGALS over Cardinals
TITANS over Jaguars
CHIEFS over Raiders
PATRIOTS over Dolphins
Giants over JETS
STEELERS over Rams
REDSKINS over Vikings
PANTHERS over Buccaneers
RAVENS over Browns
Chargers over LIONS
Eagles over COWBOYS
PACKERS over Bears
SAINTS over Falcons

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 144-80

Week 15 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: The Patriots-Broncos game scored CBS their best overnight rating (19.5) in the last four years.

Stat of the week No. 2: Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have each thrown for 3,000 yards, which is the first time in NFL history that two rookies exceeded 3,000 yards.

Stat of the week No. 3: There have been 105 individual 300-yard passing performances in 2011, which is the most in a single season in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Drew Brees became the first QB in NFL history to complete 80% of his attempts, throw for 400 yards, and throw for five TDs without an interception in one game.

Stat of the week No. 5: In his 10th season, Julius Peppers recorded his seventh year with 10 or more sacks.

Week 15 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 15 (home teams in CAPS):

FALCONS over Jaguars
Cowboys over BUCCANEERS
Seahawks over BEARS
BILLS over Dolphins
Titans over COLTS
Packers over CHIEFS
Bengals over RAMS
Saints over VIKINGS
GIANTS over Redskins
TEXANS over Panthers
RAIDERS over Lions
Patriots over BRONCOS
Jets over EAGLES
CARDINALS over Browns
CHARGERS over Ravens
49ERS over Steelers

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 135-73

Week 14 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: For the first time in NFL history, four quarterbacks have 4,000 yards passing through Week 14 (Drew Brees – 4,368, Tom Brady – 4,273, Aaron Rodgers – 4,125 & Eli Manning – 4,105).

Stat of the week No. 2: On Sunday, four teams came back to win games in which they trailed by at least 12 points (Falcons – 16 points, Jaguars – 14 points, Texans – 13 points & Cardinals – 12 points).

Stat of the week No. 3: The Denver Broncos are the third team in NFL history to win six consecutive games after starting the season 2-5 or worse (1970 Bengals & 2005 Vikings).

Stat of the week No. 4: The Washington Redskins have just three winnings seasons in Dan Snyder’s 13 seasons as owner. They haven’t been to the playoffs since being a wild card team in 2007.

Stat of the week No. 5: Mike Wallace is the fourth player in Steelers history with consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons (Roy Jefferson, Plaxico Burress & Hines Ward).

Week 14 Picks

Here are my picks for week 14 (home team in CAPS):

STEELERS over Browns
RAVENS over Colts
Falcons over PANTHERS
BENGALS over Texans
Buccaneers over JAGUARS
LIONS over Vikings
JETS over Chiefs
DOLPHINS over Eagles
BRONCOS over Bears
Patriots over REDSKINS
Saints over TITANS
PACKERS over Raiders
49ers over CARDINALS
CHARGERS over Bills
COWBOYS over Giants
SEAHAWKS over Rams

Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 124-68

Three inexcusable losses and other NFL thoughts

(1)              Even though the Green Bay Packers are making it look easy, it is extremely difficult to win football games in the NFL.  Each week, teams have to overcome injuries, travel, inconsistent performance, mental mistakes and a host of other variables to claim victory.  As a result, it is imperative for NFL teams to win the games that they are “supposed” to win.  These must-win games include ones where the opponent is missing key players or the opponent is playing on a short week of preparation or the opponent has had to travel.  When teams take care of business when they are supposed to, then their margin for error is much greater when they face teams of equal or superior talent.  Unfortunately, three teams didn’t heed the warning and, as a result, suffered ugly losses that could negatively impact their ability to make the playoffs.

The most egregious loss was the 19-13 defeat suffered by the Dallas Cowboys to the Arizona Cardinals.  This defeat was especially devastating for three reasons.  First of all, the Cowboys mismanaged the end of the game situation so horribly that even Andy Reid cringed when he saw the highlights.  Dallas started the final drive with two timeouts and flew back to Texas with one still in their back pocket.  Instead, the Cowboys chose to spike the ball and allow 15-20 precious seconds to tick off the clock after completing a pass inside the Arizona 40-yard line.  It is inexcusable that none of the coaches or players had their heads in the game enough to call the timeout after the completion.  The most tragic part of the end of game sequence was that Jason Garrett decided to use one of the timeouts to ice his own kicker.  Secondly, the Cowboys have to be kicking themselves for allowing opportunity after opportunity to slip through their fingers.  They were in Cardinals’ territory on eight different occasions on Sunday and only came away with 13 points.  With the mismatch between the Dallas offense and the Arizona defense, it is amazing that the Cowboys were held to such a low point total.  Finally, the Cowboys had everything set up to put yet another nail in the New York Giants’ coffin, but they bumbled away the opportunity because of their no show in the desert.

In addition to the Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons should be embarrassed by their performance against the Houston Texans.  They had the chance to solidify their playoff position and keep the pressure on the New Orleans Saints, but squandered it to a Houston team starting their third quarterback in three weeks.  The Falcons had to overcome a hostile environment and the number two defense in the NFL, but, nonetheless, the stars were aligned for them to steal the win.  Instead, Atlanta reverted back to the pass-happy formula that was the chief culprit for their slow start to the season and it cost them dearly.  While Houston smartly implemented a game plan that emphasized the running game and protected rookie T.J. Yates, the Falcons decided to eschew their own power running game despite the fact that it was a one score game the entire way.  As a result, Matt Ryan attempted over 40 passes for the fifth time this season and saw his record in those games fall to 1-4.  After being one of the smarter head coaches in the league during his first three seasons, Mike Smith has had a year to forget.

The final example is the Chicago Bears’ inexplicable loss to the fading Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears know that no one is catching the Packers, but they needed this win to keep some distance between them and the Falcons, Lions, Giants, etc.  Even though they were playing with Caleb Hanie as their quarterback, the Bears should have found a way to win this game.  Their defense and special teams should have created enough positive field position to allow Robbie Gould to kick four or five field goals.  Instead, the Bears’ offensive day went like this: seven punts, three interceptions, one made field goal and one missed field goal.  They deserve a little benefit of the doubt because they lost their best offensive player, Matt Forte, midway through the game, which furthered diminished their offensive capability.  Nevertheless, Chicago is going to rue the day they blew this game.

(2)  With four weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFC playoff picture has developed a clear dichotomy between the teams at the top and the teams fighting for the final three playoff berths.  With a win or a San Francisco loss, the Packers will clinch the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  There is no doubt that Green Bay will earn the top seed.  There is a little more intrigue in the race for the second first-round bye between New Orleans and San Francisco.  Only one game separates the two teams, but the 49ers currently own the tiebreaker with a better conference record and they have an easier schedule with upcoming games against Arizona, Seattle & St. Louis.  As a result, San Francisco will earn the second seed, while New Orleans will have to settle for the third seed and a home game during Wild Card weekend.  After the chalk of the conference, the NFC playoff picture gets extremely muddled.  Right now, the Cowboys, Bears and Falcons are holding on to the final three spots, but it doesn’t feel like Chicago is going to be able to overcome the loss of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte down the stretch.  Unfortunately, the teams on the outside looking in don’t inspire confidence either.  The Giants and Lions are heading in the wrong direction, while the Seahawks seem to be playing better but they may have waited too long to make a move.  In the end, it feels like the Lions are going to be able to snatch the sixth and final spot behind Atlanta and Dallas.  There is really no rhyme or reason for this choice other than a gut feeling.

            In the AFC, the playoff picture is about as clear as tinted windows.  There are four teams at 9-3 and five teams at 7-5.  Right now, New England holds the top seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston and the conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore.  Outside of a road trip to Denver, the Patriots seem to have a very manageable schedule especially when you consider they have the top coach and quarterback in the AFC.  As a result, the Patriots will end the season as the AFC East Division champs and the top seed in the conference.  Below them, Baltimore will take advantage of a favorable schedule to earn the other first round bye, which means they will host a playoff game for the first time in the John Harbaugh era.  With a two-game lead over Tennessee, the Texans will ride their outstanding defense and dynamic running game to the AFC South title and the third seed.  Rounding out the AFC playoff picture, the Broncos will continue to ride the Tebow magic carpet to the AFC West title, while the Oakland Raiders watch their promising season go up in smoke thanks to a host of recent injuries.  As far as the wild cards, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have locked up the fifth seed.  The sixth and final spot will go to the N.Y. Jets as they make another late season run to the postseason.

(3) Quick Hits

• The Seahawks put together their most complete performance of the season with a 31-14 victory over the reeling Eagles.  It is true that Philly didn’t help itself too much, but the Hawks showed that they have the potential to be a competent football team.  It is too bad that the Hawks blew a 17-7 fourth quarter lead against Washington a week prior because they would be right in the thick of the NFC playoff race instead of on the periphery.
•  The Titans are playing great football thanks to finding their lost running game over the last four weeks.  Chris Johnson has run for 130 yards or more in three of the last four weeks after gaining 100 yards just once through the first eight weeks.  Unfortunately, the Titans have to face the sizzling New Orleans Saints, which will likely put a halt to Tennessee’s playoff dreams.
•  The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes after starting the year with seven consecutive defeats.  However, over the last five weeks, the Fins are a bad snap away from being undefeated.  The keys to the hot streak has been more than competent quarterback play from Matt Moore, a rediscovered running game led by Reggie Bush and a resurgent defense.  The Dolphins are averaging nearly 28 points per game after starting the year scoring only 15 points per game.
• The last time the Giants faced an undefeated juggernaut they lost 38-35 in a spirited week 17 tilt with the New England Patriots.  The competitive loss triggered an impressive 4-0 run through the playoffs, including a 17-14 upset of the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.  Will the latest 38-35 setback unleash a string of victories for New York? 
• Do you think Shad Khan is having buyer’s remorse in Jacksonville?  Fresh off the news of his imminent purchase of the team, the Jaguars laid a gigantic egg on national television.  While Maurice Jones-Drew continued to show that he is the only legitimate offensive weapon that the Jags possess, Khan surely made note of the struggles at the quarterback position and a defense that was clearly outclassed by the San Diego offense.

Week 13 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Tony Gonzalez reached 60 receptions for the 13th consecutive season, which is an NFL record.  He also has a reception in 175 consecutive games, which is the NFL's longest active streak.

Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady became the sixth player in NFL history to throw at least 30 touchdown passes at least three times in a career.  Rob Gronkowski became the first tight end since the merger to have at least two receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in the same game.  The Patriots clinched a winning record for the 11th consecutive season.

Stat of the week No. 3: Since Philip Rivers became the starting quarterback in 2006, the Chargers are 21-2 in December and Rivers has thrown for 43 touchdowns.  In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys are only 8-11 in games started by Tony Romo in December.

Stat of the week No. 4: Green Bay joined seven other teams in NFL history to have won 18 consecutive games.  Only the 2003-2004 Patriots have won more (21 straight).

Stat of the week No. 5: Tim Tebow is only the 8th player in NFL history with at least 13 touchdown passes and nine touchdown rushes through their first two years in the league.

Week 13 Picks

Here are my picks for week 13 (home team in CAPS):

SEAHAWKS over Eagles
Titans over BILLS
BEARS over Chiefs
DOLPHINS over Raiders
Broncos over VIKINGS
PATRIOTS over Colts
STEELERS over Bengals
Panthers over BUCCANEERS
Jets over REDSKINS
Falcons over TEXANS
Ravens over BROWNS
Packers over GIANTS
Cowboys over CARDINALS
49ERS over Rams
SAINTS over Lions
JAGUARS over Chargers

Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 112-64

Week 12 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Tom Brady tied Brett Favre for the most career games (8) with 350 yards passing, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Stat of the week No. 2: In the past seven seasons, a team with a losing record after 11 games had made the playoffs (2004 – STL, 2005 – WAS, 2006 – PHI, 2007 – WAS, 2008 – SD, 2009 – NYJ, 2010 – SEA). Six of the seven teams won at least one playoff game.

Stat of the week No. 3: On Monday night, Eli Manning recorded his 7th consecutive season with at least 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tim Tebow had 22 carries on Sunday, which is the most by an NFL quarterback since the merger.

Stat of the week No. 5: Patrick Peterson tied a single-season record with his fourth punt return touchdown on Sunday. He is the only player to have four punt returns touchdowns of 80+ yards in one season.

The annual Giants collapse and other NFL thoughts

(1) Just like the swallows that return to Capistrano every March to announce the beginning of spring, NFL football fans can set their watches for the annual swoon of the New York Giants, which is starting to take shape in the recent weeks. The Giants always seem to tantalize their fan base with a strong start only to waste the good will as they stumble and bumble to the finish. Their development into the anti-closer started way back in 2006 when they squandered a 6-2 start by losing six of their final eight games. They still managed to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record, but their stay in the post season was short thanks to a 23-20 Wildcard Round loss to the hated Philadelphia Eagles. In 2007, they once again rushed out of the gate with six wins in eight games only to play mediocre football down the stretch. Their season was saved after they went toe-to-toe with the undefeated New England Patriots in Week 17 followed by an unexpected run to the Super Bowl title. The hope in New York was that the run to the championship would set the stage for the Giants to seriously contend for the next three to four years. Instead, the last three seasons have seen New York lose three of their final four games of the 2008 season and go one and done in the playoffs, lose eight of their final 11 games of the 2009 season and miss the playoffs and lose two of their final three games of the 2010 season and miss the playoffs. Despite the horrid finishes to their last five seasons, Tom Coughlin continued to dodge the pink slip mainly due to the Super Bowl title he delivered in 2007. Unfortunately, the string of bad football in November and December is finally going to catch up to Coughlin this year. They once again started the year with a 6-2 record only to find themselves mired in a three game losing streak with the latest setback coming as part of a 42-24 shellacking administered by the New Orleans Saints. As a result, the Giants have given away a commanding lead in the NFC East to the surging Dallas Cowboys and now face the prospect of righting the ship with four games in their final five against teams with winning records, including the 11-0 Green Bay Packers this Sunday. Their only game against a losing team is a home date with the Washington Redskins, who would love nothing better than to be the team that hammers in the final nail to the Giants’ coffin. As a result, the Giants are going to miss the playoffs for the third season in a row and it will finally lead to the dismissal of Coughlin as their head coach. Despite all of the good things that he has done in New York, including the upset of the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, it is unreasonable to believe that he would be able to retain his job when his teams have a history of getting worse as the season progresses.

(2) It is impossible to say for sure, but the Houston Texans have to be one of the most snake-bitten teams in the history of the NFL. They had everything line up perfectly for them to finally win a division title, but the football gods have been doing everything in their power to stop it from happening. The first blow was the slow start to the season for Arian Foster, the NFL’s defending rushing champion, due to a balky hamstring. He has since returned to being one of the best backs in the NFL, but his slow start could have derailed the Texans permanently. It was good that they had a better than decent back-up in Ben Tate, a solid quarterback and an improving defense. Unfortunately, just as Foster was rounding into shape the Texans suffered a second blow with the loss of Mario Williams, who was poised to have a huge season as an outside linebacker/pass rusher in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defensive scheme. As if these injuries weren’t enough, the Texans soon would have to find ways to win games without the services of their all-world wide receiver, Andre Johnson. Johnson would hurt his hamstring and miss several weeks, but Houston kept on ticking thanks to the steady play of Matt Schaub and the potent one-combination of Foster & Tate. Unfortunately, the brutal game of football still hadn’t satisfied its appetite for Houston players and claimed Schaub with the mysterious Lis Franc injury that occurred when a massive defensive lineman fell on his foot during a pile up in the end zone. Despite the catastrophic appearance of the Schaub injury, Houston still felt pretty good about their chances because they had all the confidence in the world in Matt Leinart, who was their back-up. Leinart started his first game since his days with Arizona and didn’t even make it to halftime before fracturing his collarbone, which ended his season before it truly got started. Even though they have had worse luck than a degenerate Las Vegas gambler, the Texans would still be the top seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. It is unfortunate that the playoffs don’t start for another five weeks because Houston has to find a way to stave off the Tennessee Titans and make the post season behind the right arm of rookie T.J. Yates. Even with all the signs pointing to a disastrous finish to an otherwise promising season, it feels like Houston is going to find a way to punch a ticket to their first playoffs in franchise history. Yates may be a slight downgrade from Leinart, but he still has the benefit of playing alongside one of the best supporting casts in the business. Also, let’s not forget that Houston has assembled the best defense in the history of the team. The Williams injury certainly had an impact, but it also opened the door for Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed to showcase what they were capable of doing. Mostly, the Texans still feel like the team to beat in the AFC South because their luck can’t be this bad for much longer. In the end, they won’t be able to hold onto the top seed in the conference, but they will do enough to host their first playoff game in franchise history.

(3) Quick Hits
• Busy day in Jacksonville…they announced the firing of head coach Jack Del Rio, a three-year contract extension for G.M. Gene Smith and the sale of the team to Pakistan-born entrepreneur Shahid Khan. The firing of Del Rio seemed inevitable ever since his curious decision to cut David Garrard the week before the Jags’ first game and cast his lost with Luke McCown and subsequently Blaine Gabbert. It is interesting that the coach gets fired, but the G.M. gets a contract extension. Khan immigrated to the United States at the age of 16 and graduated from the University of Illinois in 1971. A huge part of his Americanization was immersing himself in Illini football. Although current Jacksonville owner, Wayne Weaver, has stated that he believes Khan will keep the team in the Florida panhandle, there is no specific provision in the sale agreement that requires Khan to do it.

• Ndamukong Suh appears to have some behavioral issues that need to be addressed with the help of a professional. It is one thing to play football with a nasty streak from whistle to whistle. It is a completely different thing to intentionally inflict pain on another player outside of the rules of the game. When the only thing that Suh was hurting was his pocketbook it was okay to put up with his antics, but now that his actions have cost him two football games he needs to get the help that he needs.

• The first sacrificial lamb of the Indianapolis Colts’ inexorable march to 0-16 is defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He may have deserved the hatchet job, but he won’t be the only person that loses his job as a result of this horrible season. It is likely that Jim Caldwell will lose his job as well and the stench of a defeated season will attach itself to all of the players in the locker room, especially Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims, who both endured the Detroit Lions’ 0-16 season.

• The Eagles and the Chargers are fighting tooth and nail for the title of the most disappointing team of the 2011 season. At the beginning of the year, both teams were expected to win their respective divisions and make deep runs in the playoffs. The Eagles have been buried by a combination of injuries, poor coaching and disgruntled players. The Chargers have had their fair share of injuries as well, but their struggles start and end with the poor play of Philip Rivers, who is on pace to throw for his fewest touchdowns since 2007, throw the most interceptions of his career and post his lowest QB rating since becoming a full-time starter at the beginning of the 2006 season.

• The Raiders are showing that they have what it takes to win the AFC West. Since their bye week, Oakland has won three of four games and holds a slim one-game lead over Denver. The challenge for the Raiders is two-fold: (1) they have to conquer a difficult schedule that includes back-to-back road games the next two weeks against the better-than-their-record-shows Miami Dolphins and the undefeated defending champs and (2) they have to hold off the cosmic force known as Tim Tebow.

Week 12 Picks

Here are my picks for week 12 (home teams in CAPS):

Packers over LIONS
COWBOYS over Dolphins
RAVENS over 49ers
SEAHAWKS over Redskins
FALCONS over Vikings
BENGALS over Browns
Buccaneers over TITANS
Panthers over COLTS
RAMS over Cardinals
JETS over Bills
JAGUARS over Texans
RAIDERS over Bears
Patriots over EAGLES
Broncos over CHARGERS
Steelers over CHIEFS
SAINTS over Giants

Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 100-60

Week 11 Picks

Here are my picks for week 11 (home teams in CAPS):

Jets over BRONCOS
RAMS over Seahawks
Jaguars over BROWNS
LIONS over Panthers
PACKERS over Buccaneers
DOLPHINS over Bills
Raiders over VIKINGS
Cowboys over REDSKINS
RAVENS over Bengals
49ERS over Cardinals
Titans over FALCONS
BEARS over Chargers
GIANTS over Eagles
PATRIOTS over Chiefs

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 91-55

Week 10 Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Michael Bush’s 242 yards from scrimmage was the fourth highest in Raiders history, but the most yards from scrimmage since the AFL-NFL merger.

Stat of the week No. 2: LeSean McCoy became the fourth player since 1960 to score a touchdown in each of his team’s first nine games joining George Rogers (1986), OJ Simpson (1975) and Lenny Moore (1964).

Stat of the week No. 3: Tim Tebow is the fifth quarterback since 1980 to throw all of his team’s passes, complete two or fewer and win (Derek Anderson – 2009, Akili Smith – 2000, Steve Grogan – 1982, Ken Stabler – 1981).

Stat of the week No. 4: The Indianapolis Colts became the eighth team in the last 25 years to start a season 0-10.

Stat of the week No. 5: Drew Brees has completed at least 20 passes in 30 consecutive games.

The most mediocre division in football and other NFL thoughts

(1) In the parity-filled NFL, the title of the most mediocre division has been passed from the NFC West to the AFC West. The latter is the only division in football that doesn’t feature a team with a record better than 5-4 or worse than 4-5. Another sign of the rampant mediocrity in the AFC West is that each team has a 2-2 record against the other three teams in the division. The latest stupefying result in a season filled with stupefying results was Denver’s road victory over Kansas City despite completing only two passes the entire game. The Broncos are the hottest team in the division having won three out of their last four games behind a Tim Tebow-led option attack that has never been seen in the NFL. Next up, the Broncos draw the demoralized New York Jets, who were just destroyed by New England at home and now have to cross the country for a Thursday Night match-up with the Den-veer attack. Even without the services of Knowshon Moreno and perhaps Willis McGahee, the Broncos should be able to keep the good times rolling against the Jets, but, at some point, they are going to have to be able to win a game on the strength of Tebow’s arm. Nevertheless, the Tebow kool-aid drinkers have to be daydreaming about the Broncos sneaking away with the division title.

The team best positioned to hold off the Broncos is the current leader in the division, the Oakland Raiders. After back-to-back horrible efforts against Kansas City and Denver, the Raiders righted the ship behind a solid road victory against the Chargers. The strength of the Raiders is a brutal running game, which should only improve with the return of Darren McFadden from injury. In his absence, the Raiders’ depth has been tested, but it is clear that they are in good shape with or without McFadden thanks to the presence of Michael Bush. The other encouraging sign for Oakland was the breakout game from Carson Palmer on Thursday night. After throwing six interceptions in his first two appearances as a Raider, Palmer played a masterful game in San Diego with 299 yards passing on only 14 completions. Most importantly, the Raiders rediscovered the downfield passing game, at least for one night, which has been the trademark of their offense for the entire Al Davis era. Against the Chargers, Palmer completed five passes to his wide receivers/tight ends of 24 yards or more and had a 55-yard completion to Bush. If Palmer finds a way to play at this level consistently, then the costly trade that brought him over from Cincinnati won’t be seen as so one-sided.

The other two teams in the AFC West seem to be complete disasters right now. The Chargers continue to be plagued by an undiagnosed malady and the Chiefs just learned that they likely have lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the year. As a result, unless Philip Rivers regains his mojo or Tyler Palko plays like the second coming of Tom Brady, the division is going to come down to a fight between Denver and Oakland. The Raiders have a slightly more difficult schedule down the stretch, but they will still win the division because they are getting healthier while Denver is not and they have the better quarterback of the two teams.

(2) When the times are rough in NFL cities, fans have to hunt for small signs of progress that will give them hope for the future. In some places, like Carolina and Jacksonville, the hope is that the lumps that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are taking this year will pay dividends in the near future in the form of more victories. In other places, like Seattle, fans attach themselves to the exciting, young talent on their rosters and hope that a small tweak here and there will change the fortunes of the franchise. Even fans of a team like Indianapolis that seemingly has no hope can look forward to the selection of Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft. Fans all over the NFL will play these mental tricks in order to convince themselves that their team will be the next one that goes from the outhouse to the penthouse. However, there is one NFL locale where hope is so bereft that it is unclear what the fan base has to look forward to in the coming years. This locale is Washington, D.C., where the Redskins have made no more progress in year two of the Mike Shanahan regime than they made in year two of the three previous regimes. The problems in Washington start and end with their disastrous situation at the quarterback position. From the very beginning, Shanahan has bungled the management of the most important position in football starting with jettisoning Jason Campbell to Oakland continuing with the ill-fated trade for Donovan McNabb and the unconscionable decision to go to war with a pu-pu platter of quarterbacks this season. The current melodrama involving John Beck and Rex Grossman highlights two gigantic pockmarks on Shanahan’s resume: (1) he has never developed quarterback into a credible starter and (2) he has never won anything of significance without John Elway. The closest he came on the first point was turning the quarterback position over to Brian Griese following Elway’s retirement, but Griese never started a full 16-game slate in the NFL and his career can be best described as being one of a journeyman’s. On the latter point, Shanahan is barely a .500 coach in the years that Elway was not his quarterback. Also, Shanny has exactly one playoff win since Elway retired 12 years ago. Without the good fortune of having one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks fall into his lap, it is likely that Shanahan would have been exposed as a mediocre coach in the late 90’s and he would never have been in the discussion to be the Redskins’ head coach. Unfortunately, for Skins’ fans, Shanahan is their coach and he isn’t going anywhere in the short-term due to the huge financial ramifications of sending him packing. As a result, Washington fans have to hope that one of the top quarterback prospects is available when they draft and they need to trust that Shanahan will identify the right player for the job. Regardless, the Skins are likely heading for another losing season in 2012 as they groom a rookie quarterback, which means that the pessimism currently hanging over the franchise will linger like stink on a pig.

(3) Quick Hits
• It’s a two-horse race in the NFC East between the Giants and the Cowboys. Count on Dallas being 8-4, riding a five-game winning streak, when they face New York on December 11th. As the Cowboys get more familiar playing Rob Ryan’s schemes, their defense will lead the way to a division title.

• The Chicago Bears are playing better football than any team not based in Green Bay. They have the best running back in football, the best returner in football, a solid defense and an improving offensive line. They have to overcome a key offensive line injury, but they are the current leaders for one of the two wild card spots in the NFC.

• The stat-heads and the academics might disagree, but Mike Smith made a bad choice to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory. It didn’t make sense to take the chance when failing to gain the necessary yardage was basically guaranteeing a loss. Bill Belichick was excoriated for taking a similar chance two years ago and Smith deserves the same critique.

• Game, set & match to the San Francisco 49ers.

• The Patriots are far from perfect, but they are still the class of the AFC East. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, they will win the division and host a playoff game. The Matt Schaub injury has just opened up a huge opportunity for them to snatch one of the two AFC byes.

• The Baltimore Ravens are the most schizophrenic team in the NFL. They beat the Steelers twice, but lose to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks. The loss to Seattle has just handed the inside track to the division title back to the Steelers.

• The Schaub injury is going to be a huge test for the Texans. Before news of the injury hit the airwaves, some were arguing that Houston was the best team in the AFC. Now, they have to hand the keys to the offense to Matt Leinart and cross their fingers. You can hear the hooting and hollering in Tennessee from coast to coast.

Week 10 Picks

Here are my picks for week 10 (home teams in CAPS):

CHARGERS over Raiders
FALCONS over Saints
BENGALS over Steelers
Rams over BROWNS
COWBOYS over Bills
Jaguars over COLTS
Broncos over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS over Redskins
EAGLES over Cardinals
Texans over BUCCANEERS
PANTHERS over Titans
Lions over BEARS
Giants over 49ERS
JETS over Patriots
PACKERS over Vikings
Ravens over SEAHAWKS

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 84-46

Week Nine Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: The St. Louis Rams had the first four-point quarter in the 92-year history of the NFL.

Stat of the week No. 2: Tom Brady suffered his first regular season home loss since November 12, 2006 against the N.Y. Jets.

Stat of the week No. 3: Green Bay scored at least 28 points in the first half for the third time this year, which matches the total of the other 31 teams combined.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tim Tebow is the first player with 100 yards rushing, two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in a single game since Mike Vick in November 2004.

Stat of the week No. 5: Houston joined San Francisco, Detroit, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Carolina to become the sixth team to match or exceed its 2010 win total, which is tied for the 2nd-highest total through week nine since 1990.

Bonus Stat of the week: After 24 games, the Redskins are 9-15 under Mike Shanahan. They were 10-14 under Jim Zorn, 11-13 under Joe Gibbs and 10-14 under Steve Spurrier.

The curious case of Joe Flacco and other NFL thoughts

(1) In this day and age of short attention spans, it seems like it is much easier to go from a downward trend to an upward one very quickly. Nowhere is this statement more true than the National Football League, where yesterday’s worst team in the league is today’s Kansas City Chiefs riding a four-game winning streak back into the middle of a division race. The cult of ‘any given Sunday’ and ‘what have you done for me lately’ that has prospered in the NFL over the last 20 years has created an environment where individual teams and players are exalted one week only to be torn down the next. This phenomenon has only been exaggerated by a 24-hour media cycle that is desperate to one-up each other with better analysis, more breaking news and bolder statements about the major sports. One of the more recent examples of popular opinion changing faster than it takes to tweet what you at for lunch is the curious case of Joe Flacco. After a generally underwhelming beginning to his fourth NFL season, including two attempts to set back the position of quarterback to the days when the forward pass was illegal, there were red flags being raised all around Flacco. Why was he seemingly regressing in his fourth season? Why was he barely completing 50% of his attempts? Was he the right quarterback to take the Ravens to the next level? Anyone that witnessed Flacco playing against the Jets or the Jaguars or against the Cardinals in the first half would have thought that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, were being sabotaged by his inability to hit the side of a barn with the football. Sure this looked like the same guy that had led Baltimore to three road playoff victories in his first three seasons, but he definitely was not playing like the same guy. Flacco was looking like one of those athletes that had completely lost his mojo.

Fast forward to today and the public dialog about Flacco has undergone a complete 180 degree shift. Gone were the questions about his ability to play consistently from week-to-week. The memories of Flacco’s horrific performances against New York and Jacksonville had been swept away by a collective case of Alzheimer’s caused by the big victory over Pittsburgh. If you allowed Ray Rice to tell the tale, he would have you believe that the guys in the Baltimore locker room have believed in Flacco the whole time. Rice’s sentiment was supported by offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who stated after the game that he doesn’t “get all the stuff everybody talks about Joe” and that he’s been “fortunate to be around a lot of really good ones” and that Joe is a “great one.” I know that hyperbole is common in sports, but I don’t believe for one minute that the Ravens’ locker room has been steadfast in its confidence in Flacco nor do I believe that Flacco is anywhere close to being a great quarterback. However, the one thing that Cam, Ray and I can all agree on is that Flacco produced the defining moment of his career when he engineered the game-winning 92-yard drive on Sunday night. This moment was so huge for him because he succeeded despite the fact that his teammates, especially Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, appeared to have wanted no part of making a big play on that last drive. There have been a lot of quarterbacks through the years that look good when everything around them is falling into place. The mark of the truly great quarterbacks is when they show the ability to overcome obstacles and find ways to win games on a regular basis. As a result, I’m nowhere close to being interested in crowning Joe Flacco as the greatest thing since Joe Montana. He needs to demonstrate that he is capable of raising his level of play on a weekly basis rather than alternating one great game with a game where he doesn’t complete a pass for the balance of two quarters.

(2) I am on the record as saying that I believed the New York Giants would not stay in first place in the NFC East for long because they lacked a marquee victory on their resume. In addition, they have the stain of losing to the Seattle Seahawks at home and they were extremely fortunate to beat Arizona and Miami. They had the look of a team that was merely keeping the seat warm for the inevitable rise of the Philadelphia Eagles. Just like the narrative has quickly changed about Joe Flacco, the Giants’ road victory over the New England Patriots has the football world viewing New York through a different prism. This is what happens when you beat Tom Brady at home during the regular season for the first time in five years. This is what happens when the manner in which the Giants won the game had people reminiscing about the fantastic finish to Super Bowl XLII. Is it possible that the Giants have assumed the title of the second-best team in the NFC? You can certainly question the quality of some of their victories, but don’t good teams find ways to win no matter the aesthetics. It shouldn’t matter that they had the football gods on their side against the Cardinals or that they had to scramble in the second half to defeat the Dolphins. We should only care about the results. Although they have six victories, I can’t shake the fact that they have the most brutal schedule in the NFL over the next eight weeks. If they had a few more convincing wins during the first half of the season, then I would be better prepared to hand them the division crown. Unfortunately, I don’t see more than four wins down the stretch against a schedule that includes San Francisco (road), Philadelphia (home), New Orleans (road), Green Bay (home), Dallas (road & home), Washington (home) and New York. If we just look at the schedule, I’m starting to lean towards the Dallas Cowboys as the team to beat in the NFC East. I would not be surprised at all if they are riding a five-game winning streak when they host the Giants on Sunday Night Football on December 11th. The Eagles are still in the mix because of the talent on their roster, but they missed a golden opportunity to keep pace with the leaders in the division by losing to Chicago. Ultimately, I think that the NFC East is going to provide some of the most compelling football down the stretch.

(3) Quick Hits
• There figures to be about ½ dozen teams that will be in the market for a quarterback in the first two rounds of the 2012 NFL draft. One of the teams that had been hoping that they wouldn’t be in this market are the Cleveland Browns, who have to be losing faith in Colt McCoy as each week passes. Among quarterbacks that have started every game, McCoy has the worst QB rating, worst yards per attempt average and the second worst completion percentage. He doesn’t have great weapons to work with, but he still hasn’t shown that he can be a starting NFL quarterback.

• Devin Hester better keep returning kicks for touchdowns because young Patrick Peterson appears to have the goods to one day be mentioned along with the greatest returners in NFL history. He is already the first player in NFL history to have three punt returns for touchdowns in his first eight games. Also, his game-winning return in overtime was just the second punt return to come in overtime in NFL history (Tamarick Vanover to beat San Diego on 10/9/95).

• The New Orleans Saints need to figure out what kind of team they want to be. Are they the world-beaters that killed the Colts and dismantled the Bucs or are they the team that couldn’t get out of their own way against the Rams?

• The Buffalo Bills are picking the wrong time for their offense to go into hibernation as they stare a three-game road trip in the face. The question on the minds of everyone in Western New York is will the loss to the Jets kick start the inevitable swoon.

• Who is beating the Green Bay Packers? The best chance for them to lose would be either on the road at Detroit or at New York. These are the two best candidates because they are on the road and they both feature opposing offenses that should be able to exploit the surprisingly suspect Packers’ defense.

Commish's Game of the Week: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Preview
     The NFL’s best rivalry returns this weekend as the Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a renewal of their twice-a-year grudge match. Even though the venom and hatred may have softened between the two sides over the last couple of years, we can still expect a hard-hitting, physical football game. The Ravens are motivated by a desire to take control of the AFC North, while the Steelers are desperate to rinse away the bad taste from their 35-7 loss to Baltimore on opening day. The tale of this game revolves around a match-up between two of the elite defensive units in the NFL and two offenses heading in opposite directions.

     The defenses are both playing at a high level. The Baltimore defense is in the top five in nearly every relevant statistical category and they have had to carry the load for their offense for most of this season. Make no mistake about it, without the stellar play from the Ravens’ defense, they would have been blown out against Jacksonville and they would never have had the opportunity to complete the amazing comeback last week against Arizona. The challenge for the Steelers will be to get anything going against a defense that allows only 3.3 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per attempt. Recently, Pittsburgh has been winning games behind the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger, but this match-up looks very tough especially when you consider that Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss the game to attend the funeral of his mother. The absence of Sanders reduces the overall speed of the Pittsburgh receivers as it thrusts Hines Ward and Jerricho Cotchery into more prominent roles. In the end, it may not matter against a defense that allows merely 174 yards passing per game. Let’s not forget that the Ravens get after the quarterback better than any team except for the N.Y. Giants. In the first match-up with Pittsburgh, the Ravens pressured Roethlisberger consistently throughout the entire game, which directly led to four sacks and five Roethlisberger turnovers. The bottom line is that the Ravens defense is playing at the same high level as the Pittsburgh offense, so this will be the match-up that I will be focused on. The one thing that we need to monitor is the health of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who missed his second day of practice on Thursday. If Ngata is unable to play on Sunday, then the pressure will be squarely on Terrance Cody to be the pocket-collapsing presence that Ngata normally provides.

     On the other side, the Steelers defense is no slouch either. They are the number one passing defense in the NFL and they find themselves in the top 10 in yards per rush, rushing yards per game and points allowed per game. They seem to have regained their swagger over the last few weeks, which is quite an achievement when you take a look at their injury report. They’ve been missing former defensive player of the year James Harrison for several weeks and they played last week without stalwart James Farrior after he had answered the bell in nearly 100 consecutive games. In addition, perhaps their best player, LaMarr Woodley, suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s game and is likely to be inactive this week. They have had to overcome all of these injuries in addition to losing one of the best two-way defensive linemen in the league, Aaron Smith, earlier in the season. As a result of the laundry list of injuries, the Steelers have struggled against the run at times and they have been a shell of their former selves as it relates to creating turnovers. Ultimately, the lack of star power has forced them to rely more on their scheme rather than their talent, which I believe has allowed them to play a sounder brand of football. Regardless, the Steelers have to be thrilled to be playing the Ravens offense right now. They will be facing a quarterback that has clearly regressed in his fourth year in the league and a running game that has struggled all season to get on track despite the presence of the dynamic Ray Rice. It will be imperative for the Steelers to force Joe Flacco to be the guy that beats them. Based on recent evidence, I don’t believe that Flacco has the necessary confidence in his game right now to beat a good defense with his arm. The best move for the Ravens will be to get the ball to Rice in open space to take advantage of the Steelers’ replacements at linebacker.

Three Keys to the Game
1. Stuff the run – For different reasons, neither team wants to rely too heavily on their quarterbacks. The Steelers don’t want to subject Big Ben to the likely beating he will take if he drops back 50 times like last week and the Ravens are already having nightmares about Flacco being forced to throw the ball 35 or more times. As a result, slowing down Rice and Rashard Mendenhall will be a focus area for both defenses.

2. Convert third down opportunities – Both defenses have been successful getting off the field on third down. However, the Steelers are one of only three teams that convert better than 50% of their third down opportunities. The offense that can stay on the field will be the offense that wins the game.

3. Field goals not touchdowns – Points are going to be at a premium in this game. As a result, each team needs to be stingy in the red zone to ensure that the other side is getting three points or less.

Prediction
Pittsburgh 17 – Baltimore 13

Week Nine Picks

Here are my picks for week nine (home teams in CAPS):

BILLS over Jets
Falcons over COLTS
CHIEFS over Dolphins
SAINTS over Buccaneers
49ers over REDSKINS
TEXANS over Browns
Bengals over TITANS
RAIDERS over Broncos
PATRIOTS over Giants
Rams over CARDINALS
Packers over CHARGERS
STEELERS over Ravens
EAGLES over Bears
COWBOYS over Seahawks

Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 76-40

Week Eight Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Steven Jackson (51 TDs) joined Marshall Faulk (58) and Eric Dickerson (56) as the only Rams with 50+ rushing touchdowns.

Stat of the week No. 2: Ben Roethlisberger is the fourth-fastest to reach 75 wins (106 games) among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era trailing Roger Staubach (99 games), Tom Brady (99 games) and Ken Stabler (105 games).

Stat of the week No. 3: Baltimore’s win marks the fifth time this season that a team trailed by at least 20 points and came back to win, which is the most in one season in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Cam Newton became the fourth rookie quarterback since 1960 with five games of at least 250 yards passing (Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan).

Stat of the week No. 5: Adrian Peterson joined Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only running backs ever with at least 750 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in each of their first five seasons.

Something in the water in St. Louis and other NFL thoughts

(1) The U.S. Congress should stop wasting their time trying to reduce our gazillion dollar deficit and should immediately create a Blue Ribbon Commission to investigate the suspected performance enhancers that have been added to the water in the St. Louis, Missouri area. I know that we have no proof that the water supply has been tampered with, but how else can we explain the St. Louis Cardinals’ mad dash to and through the playoffs followed by the St. Louis Rams, all but left for dead, dominating the visiting New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Rams, playing without their franchise quarterback, were widely expected to lie down and play dead while the Saints rampaged through another undermanned opponent like they did last Sunday night to Indianapolis. Unfortunately, for New Orleans, the Rams either were rightfully motivated by the visit from the World Series champions or were able to locate their pride that they had somehow lost during the horrific beginning of the 2001 season because they played like their hair was on fire. They hit the Saints in the mouth from the opening whistle until the clock showed all zeroes in the fourth quarter. They limited one of the best running teams in the NFL, albeit one missing a key cog in Mark Ingram, to 56 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. They harassed Drew Brees all game long, which led to two interceptions and eliminated the big play component of New Orleans’ passing game. The result was six sacks and a season-low 6.1 yards per attempt for Brees. With a winnable stretch of games facing the Rams in the next four weeks, this performance might just be the elixir that turns around their season. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that they could be 5-6, riding a five-game winning streak, when they head to San Francisco for a week 13 showdown. Although they have dug themselves a hole too big to escape from, it cannot be underestimated the impact of having a strong finish to the season especially when you consider the expectations that many people had for St. Louis entering the year. Nevertheless, for one week, the Rams played to their potential and got a huge win in the process.

Conversely, this game has to make you wonder about the status of the Saints as one of the elite in the NFL. Are they the team that started the year 4-1 or are they the team that has spit the bit in two of the last three games? I still tend to think that they are the former, but their recent struggles against the Bucs and the Rams have exposed a couple of areas that they need to shore up especially on the road. First of all, Drew Brees has got to a better job of protecting the football. After throwing two picks against St. Louis, Brees has thrown the same number of interceptions in their two recent losses as he has in their other six contests combined. The plot line that Brees is a turnover machine has been downplayed for a variety of reasons in the national media, but he is clearly turning the ball over at a higher rate than some of the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL. For example, he has thrown more than twice the number of interceptions as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers over the last year and a half despite the fact that he plays in a perfect climate eight times a season. It is obvious from these numbers that Brees is taking more chances than some of his elite peers, which has inflated his interception numbers. In order for the Saints to achieve their goals, Brees has to get back to protecting the football like he did back in 2009. During their run to the Super Bowl title, he threw only 11 interceptions in 19 games, but he has already thrown 10 interceptions in eight games this year. Secondly, the Saints have to find a way to stop the run on a consistent basis. They have given up over 100 yards rushing in seven of their eight games and they are currently working on a stretch where they have allowed 155 or more yards rushing in three of their last four games. Hopefully, they have hit rock bottom with the horrible rush defense they exhibited on Sunday against Steven Jackson. The good news for their recovery is that they face only two opponents currently ranked in the top 15 rushing offenses down the stretch. Nevertheless, they are still going to have to bring the right attitude and effort because this season has proven that it doesn’t really matter who is running the ball against New Orleans because they all have the equal amount of success.

(2) Well, well, the so-called Philly Dream Team finally showed their faces on Sunday night. The saying goes that it is better to be late than to never show up, but, really guys, what took you so long. After winning the offseason, this team was supposed to run away with the NFC East and challenge for the NFC’s berth in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, none of their opponents bought in to the hype. The result was a 1-4 start to the season and a lot of questions about the efficacy of building an NFL roster as if it was a fantasy football team. In addition, there were the requisite questions about the ability of Mike Vick to stay healthy after he suffered a concussion against Atlanta and a bruised, non-throwing hand against the New York Giants. Finally, there was a lot of criticism of Andy Reid for handing the keys to his defense to a former offensive line coach. To their credit, the Eagles have responded like champions to all of the external pressure. They played decently in a seven-point victory over the Redskins in week six and then ramped up their play against the Cowboys this past week. If you would have envisioned the perfect “Dream Team” performance, it would have been the 27-point woodshed beating administered to the Cowboys. First of all, Mike Vick played like the superhero that everyone expects him to be. He completed a season-high 75% of his passes on his way to throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and he even got back to scrambling effectively for the first time in 2011. Secondly, they ran the football down the throats of the supposed number one run defense behind 185 yards from LeSean McCoy. In my opinion, McCoy is probably the most underrated running back in the NFL. It is quite an accomplishment how the Eagles effectively transitioned from the Brian Westbrook era to the McCoy era. Thirdly, high-priced free agent Nnamdi Asomugha made an appearance with his second interception of the season. It certainly didn’t hurt that the quarterback that he victimized was Tony Romo. Even bigger than Asomugha’s pick was the fact that he teamed with Assante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to render Miles Austin and Dez Bryant non-factors. Finally, the fact that the Eagles beat the Cowboys convincingly on national television made this victory extra special.

 (3) Quick Hits
• The New York Giants are leading the NFC East, but does anyone think for a minute that they are going to win the division. They have lost to the Seattle Seahawks at home and nearly lost to the woeful Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. Don’t forget the fortuitous call they received in Arizona to squeak by the Cardinals. In their last 11 games, they face a current division leader four times and the overall record of their 11 remaining opponents is 36-21.

 • Another shaky 5-2 team is the Baltimore Ravens. They had the ugly loss to Jacksonville last Monday night and they nearly had another disastrous loss this weekend against Arizona. They have an outstanding defense, but their offense is not keeping up their end of the bargain. Joe Flacco is a train wreck this season with a completion percentage just above 50% and a yard per attempt average less than seven. In addition, they are only the 19th ranked rushing offense.

 • If the Houston Texans don’t win 11 games this season, then Gary Kubiak should be fired. They have four home games remaining and four very winnable games on the road. If the Texans can’t breakthrough in a year where the scheduling gods looked favorably on them and Peyton Manning didn’t play a down then they will never do it.

 • The 49ers are running away with the NFC West. They are currently riding their first five-game winning streak since 2001 and they just wrapped up an undefeated month of October for the first time since 1997. It all adds up to their first 6-1 start since 1998 and a four-game cushion in the division. Unless they start to stumble, the rest of the division has no chance to catch the 49ers.

Commish's Game of the Week: New England at Pittsburgh

Preview
The New England Patriots should have no fear playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Tom Brady took over the starting quarterback position in 2001, the Patriots have beaten the Steelers six times out of eight opportunities, including two conference championship victories. In their two defeats, Brady was present and accounted for in only one of them, a 14-point regular season loss in 2004, while Pittsburgh destroyed New England back in 2008 with Matt Cassel as the starter. Despite the measure of historical dominance, the game that will be most illustrative about this year’s match-up would be last year’s 13-point road victory for the Patriots. If you remember, New England dominated the Steelers for most of the game behind a masterful performance from Brady and his receivers. Specifically, Brady dominated the Steel Curtain defense underneath with Wes Welker and in the seam with Rob Gronkowski. Ultimately, the connection with Gronkowski proved to be the back-breaker for the Steelers as Brady connected with his rookie tight end for three touchdowns that appeared to occur on the exact same play call. It is safe to say that the Steelers will be tested once again by the Patriots’ passing attack despite the fact that they enter this game as the number one ranked passing defense in total passing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed. It would seem obvious, based on their success from last season, to expect the Patriots to attack the Steelers again with their two-headed monster at tight end, but such a simplistic notion would be selling Bill Belichick short. Brady is obviously a gifted signal-caller, who has an uncanny ability to maximize the talent around him, but one of the underrated aspects of this Patriots’ team is their ability to run the football. They don’t have a featured back, but the trio of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead are good enough to do damage on the ground especially when the Patriots employ the spread formations that they seem to like so much. Since their week three loss to Buffalo, the Patriots have averaged 145.3 yards rushing per game. With the New England ground game rounding into shape and the Steelers’ rush defense looking vulnerable, the Patriots have an opportunity to create a lot of yards running the football. Controlling the game on the ground has two benefits: (1) protects Brady from a pass rush that ranks fourth in the NFL with 17 sacks and (2) keeps their horrible pass defense on the sideline. It goes without saying that the Patriots are going to spread out the Steelers in an attempt to take advantage of their age on defense, but the types of plays that they run out of their spread formations will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.

The Steelers are on a bit of a roll right now, but the Patriots will be the best football team they have faced since opening day against Baltimore and we all remember what happened against the Ravens. Although the New England offense will challenge the Steelers, the Patriots’ defense looks like it will be in for a long day against the high-flying Pittsburgh offense. The Patriots are dead-last in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and yards per attempt allowed, which should have Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace licking their chops. Outside of a really strong day against Mark Sanchez, the New England defense has allowed nearly 360 yards passing per game. Their ability to attack the vulnerable Patriots’ secondary gives the Steelers the best chance to win this game. Since the expectation is that Roethlisberger is going to be dropping back 40 times or so in this game, it is paramount that the Pittsburgh offensive line keep their quarterback relatively clean. The Steelers have allowed 20 sacks on the season, which doesn’t include all of the times that Big Ben has narrowly avoided a potential sack with his size and/or athletic ability. In addition, if Roethlisberger feels protected on Sunday, then it will reduce the chances that he will have another turnover-fest like we saw on opening day. Fortunately, the Patriots have not shown themselves to be very adept at rushing the passer, but you can bet your life savings that Belichick will cook up a scheme that will create some pressure on Big Ben. The coaching match-up between Mike Tomlin and Belichick will also be an important factor to focus on during this game. It will pit Tomlin’s quiet confidence in his guys and his game plan against the Belichick’s ability to find the chinks in the armor of his opponents and exploit them to his advantage. Both guys have had a lot of success with their style of coaching, but the extra week of preparation tilts the playing field slightly in Belichick’s direction. The extra time to watch tape and analyze Pittsburgh’s tendencies will likely lead to a game plan that will mask the Patriots’ deficiencies while maximizing their strengths.

Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have had trouble holding on to the football. The Patriots turned the ball over four times in their only loss and another four times during a near-loss to Dallas. The Steelers have eight of their 12 turnovers in their two losses. The advantage goes to New England for two reasons: (1) Big Ben has a penchant for giving the ball away due to his willingness to hold onto the ball until the very last second and (2) the Patriots’ defense has been much better at creating turnovers.

2. First team to 30 points wins – The Patriots have scored 30+ points in five out of six games. The Steelers have scored 24 or less points in five out of seven games. The Steelers may have the better big play potential, but New England is superior in the red zone due to options like Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski. Neither defense is going to stop the opposing offenses from scoring too often, but the Patriots’ will put the ball in the end zone more than Pittsburgh.

3. Avoid big plays – The Roethlisberger-Wallace connection has become the best deep threat combo in the NFL. They already have 81-yard and 95-yard touchdowns this year. The Patriots cannot allow Wallace to beat them deep. Look for New England to force the Steelers to sustain long drives in order to score points. The hope with this strategy is that Big Ben becomes frustrated and starts forcing the football into tight spaces, which should lead to turnover opportunities.

Prediction
New England 31 – Pittsburgh 24

Week Eight Picks

Here are my picks for week eight (home teams in CAPS):

TITANS over Colts
Saints over RAMS
GIANTS over Dolphins
PANTHERS over Vikings
RAVENS over Cardinals
TEXANS over Jaguars
BILLS over Redskins
Lions over BRONCOS
Patriots over STEELERS
49ERS over Browns
Bengals over SEAHAWKS
EAGLES over Cowboys
CHIEFS over Chargers

Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 66-37

Week Seven Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Drew Brees threw for more than 300 yards and five touchdowns without an interception for the third time in his career, joining Tom Brady as the only players since 1970 to accomplish the feat at least three times (Brady has done it four times).

Stat of the week No. 2: Arian Foster became just the fourth player since the merger to run for 100 yards, have 100 receiving yards and score three touchdowns in the same game (2007- Brian Westbrook, 2002 – Priest Holmes, 1973 – Larry Brown).

Stat of the week No. 3: Denver Broncos are the first team since 1970 to come-from-behind to win after trailing by 15 or more points with three minutes remaining in a game.

Stat of the week No. 4: Since Art Monk retired as the NFL’s leader in receptions after the 1995 season, 11 players have passed him, including Derrick Mason this past Sunday.

Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton has seven rushing touchdowns, which is two more than Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams combined.

Bonus Stat of the Week: In four career starts, Tim Tebow has two fourth-quarter comebacks from at least 13 points down. The same number John Elway had in 231 career starts.

The Falcons rounding into form and other NFL thoughts

(1) The Atlanta Falcons still don’t look like the Super Bowl contender that many people expected them to be at the beginning of the season, but they have shown a great deal of grittiness and determination over the last few weeks to turn around a very slow start. On paper, this version of the Falcons doesn’t seem to do anything particularly well, but they have reverted to an identity that has worked well for them in the past: a balanced offense led by the running game. In their three losses, the Falcons have averaged nearly 2.5 more pass attempts than running plays. Even though Matt Ryan is a better quarterback in his fourth year and they have added an elite playmaker in Julio Jones, the Falcons should not be throwing the ball an average of 42 times per game. Atlanta has been at its best over the last three plus seasons when they relied on a heavy dose of Michael Turner to soften up defenses and set-up the play action passing game. In their victories, it is clear from the numbers that the Falcons have focused much more on the running game, which has reduced the pressure on Ryan and paid dividends in the standings. When they have won this season, the Falcons have averaged sixty more yards rushing than in their losses and they have had essentially a 50-50 split between passes and runs. The bigger impact of the balanced offense has been a huge reduction in turnovers. One of the major reasons that the Falcons have lost three games is that they have turned the ball over, on average, nearly three times in those ballgames. Without the security of the running game, Ryan has had to drop back way too many times behind shaky pass protection, which has led to a far greater number of giveaways than expected. When Ryan and the pass blockers have been shielded by an effective rush attack, the Falcons have averaged only one turnover per game. This is the team that we have become accustomed to seeing over the last three seasons. This is the team that has averaged 11 victories in the last three years behind a power running game and steady quarterback play. This is the team that should have their rivals in the NFC South worried that the Super Bowl contender that we all envisioned has finally been awakened.

(2) Personally, I don’t get the excessive hype surrounding or the vitriol directed at Tim Tebow. Both extremes don’t do the kid any justice. It is great that he is the type of guy that you would like your daughter to date. It is great that his legend is as big as the state of Florida. It is great that his list of intangibles make the heads of teammates, coaches and personnel people spin. Does it mean that we have to spend countless hours fawning over, dissecting and/or criticizing a guy that has accomplished very little in the NFL? I would like someone to wake me when his acute case of the happy feet is cured or when he can consistently and accurately throw all of the routes that NFL quarterbacks have to throw in order to be successful or when his first instinct isn’t to tuck and run. Call me old school, but I just think that athletes need to accomplish something beyond being a cult hero in order to deserve all of the extra attention. It is the same reason that I can’t stand all of the attention that Danica Patrick receives or that Anna Kournikova got back in the day. What has Tebow accomplished since becoming a professional football player besides being the most popular back-up quarterback in NFL history? I believe that the hype surrounding Tebow is one of the major reasons why a percentage of football fans have to cover their mouths when they hear his name for fear of throwing up their lunch. Tebow didn’t ask to be covered by the media in this over-the-top fashion, but he still has to live with the repercussions. From all accounts, he has never tried to agitate for the starting job in Denver. Frankly, he has gone out of his way to downplay the controversy and be completely supportive of the Denver organization. Unfortunately, being the good solider had done nothing to change certain people’s perception of Tebow. The reason that people still “hate” him despite his best efforts is because he has cultivated an image that is easy to resent. He is the religious missionary do-gooder, who is saving himself for marriage and always says please and thank you. A segment of the population cannot stand anyone that presents themselves in such a perfect light. These “haters” are praying for his downfall, so that they can all point fingers and tell us ‘I told you so.’ Unfortunately, none of the things that people spend the most time talking about in regards to Tebow have anything to do with his ability to play football. The general public needs to spend less time analyzing Tebow the person and more time talking about Tebow the player. It is irrefutable that he is a winner, but that character trait alone will not guarantee success in the NFL. My plea is that we tone down the personal attacks and the doomsday predictions of his ability to succeed and allow the drama to play out on its own.

(3) Quick Hits
• The hottest seat in the NFL still belongs to Tony Sparano, but Jim Caldwell is zooming up the charts following the Colts’ disgraceful display on national television on Sunday Night football. It looked to me like the Colts had quit in certain spots, which is the biggest indictment of a coach that you can find.

• DeMarco Murray submitted the 10th best rushing performance in NFL history and looks ready to carve out a significant role in the Dallas offense. Felix Jones is still the starter, but if he cannot stay healthy he might find his position usurped by Murray.

• The start of the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota wasn’t perfect, but it provided a glimpse of what Vikings’ fans can look forward to over the next 3-4 years: dominant running from Adrian Peterson and heady quarterback play from Ponder.

• The shine is officially off Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee. After posting a QB rating of 93 or higher during the Titans’ 3-1 start to the season, Hasselbeck has looked putrid over the last two weeks culminating with disastrous performance against the Houston Texans at home following a bye. With a few more stinkers like this one, the Titans will be rolling out the red carpet on the Jake Locker era.

• The Steelers are rolling right now and their 2-2 start is all but a distant memory. Their defense is starting to play up to their reputation and their offense is building a big-play personality behind Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace. Their recent stellar play comes at the right time as the Steelers head into a six week stretch where they play New England, Baltimore, Kansas City and Cincinnati (twice). This portion of their schedule will define whether the Steelers are truly a playoff team or just a pretender.

Commish's Game of the Week: San Diego at New York

Preview
The San Diego Chargers have had a fast start to a season for one of the few times in the Norv Turner era, but the impressive record has largely been built against the bottom tier of teams in the NFL. Starting with this week’s match-up with the Jets, the Chargers face teams with a .500 record or better in eight of the last 11 weeks. The big question for San Diego is still related to their ability to finish the season strong. On paper, the Chargers appear to have a lot of the characteristics of an 11- or 12-win team. First of all, they have a top 10 offense led by a preseason MVP candidate at quarterback. Philip Rivers hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, but you have to figure that things are going to start tilting in the other direction for the Pro Bowl quarterback. Secondly, there is no team in the NFL better than the Chargers at converting third down opportunities and keeping drives alive. San Diego has converted an astounding 56.5% of their third downs, which they have accomplished largely without any contributions from Antonio Gates. Finally, the Chargers have a strong defensive unit especially against the pass. Unfortunately, there are a couple of problem areas that could undermine their success on offense and defense similarly to their special teams’ breakdowns in 2010. The biggest area of concern has to be the -5 turnover differential. The most significant contributing factor to the awful turnover ratio has been Rivers’ inability to protect the football. Rivers has turned the ball over nine times (7 interceptions and two fumbles lost). The other area of concern, the Chargers’ inability to protect the quarterback, is probably one of the major reasons why Rivers has such a high number of giveaways this season. The silver lining is that San Diego has won four out of five games despite their offensive struggles. The optimist would say that it is a good sign for their mental toughness that they have been able to find ways to win games despite playing less than perfect football. The naysayers would counter by stating that the Chargers’ subpar efforts are good enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but are going to come up woefully short when the schedule gets tougher.

The Jets, on the other hand, don’t have a lot of positives to hang their hat on this year. They have gone from being a popular pick to win the AFC East and make a Super Bowl run to a team that has lost its identity in the midst of poor play and a deteriorating locker room environment. The team from the last two seasons that wanted to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense has largely disappeared in 2011. The injury to Nick Mangold has obviously had an impact on New York’s entire offense, but they should still be better than the 31st ranked rushing offense. The same can be said for the Jets’ defense, which has been carved up on a regular basis by opposing running games and enters Sunday’s match-up as the 28th ranked run defense. Ultimately, the Jets are going to have to assume the “Ground & Pound” persona again because Mark Sanchez and the talent at wide receiver are not ready to make the shift to being a primarily passing team. On the bright side, the Jets have a couple of positives on the defensive side of the ball that they can lean on while they work to correct their flaws. First of all, they have been one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. You could say that their lofty ranking is the result of their opponents eschewing the pass to run the ball down their throats, but the presence of stellar defenders like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie makes it feel like this is a legitimate strength of the New York defense. Secondly, the Jets have done a fine job sacking the quarterback through the first quarter of the season. More important than the 17 sacks is the fact that the Jets have had 10 different players register at least ½ a sack. Often times, an elite pass rusher can be neutralized by the opposing team’s offensive scheme, but a team, like the Jets, that can bring pressure with a variety of bodies is much harder to defend. The Jets were able to flex their lost muscle on Monday night against the woeful Dolphins, but San Diego is going to provide a whole different level of competition.

Keys to the Game
1. Third Down Efficiency – This game pits the best offense (San Diego) at converting third down opportunities against the best defense (New York) at preventing third downs from being converted. As the saying goes, something has to give. If the Chargers continue to convert at their present rate, then they will win this game in dominating fashion. The Jets’ best chance to win involves forcing their will upon the Chargers, especially on third down.

2. Protecting the quarterback – Neither of these teams has done a particularly good job of protecting the quarterback. The difference is that the Jets have a much more accomplished pass rush than the Chargers. New York has a clear advantage in this area, so they must continue to pressure the passer.

3. Control Rivers – The other strength of the Jets’ defense is their pass defense. Although they have a decent running game, the Chargers clearly want to lead with the pass. The Jets have to make sure that Vincent Jackson’s visit to Revis Island is an unpleasant one. Jackson is the Chargers’ best deep threat, so shutting him down will force San Diego to mount long, sustained drives, which increases the opportunities to create turnovers.

Prediction
San Diego 24 – New York Jets 20