Commish's Game of the Week: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Preview
     The NFL’s best rivalry returns this weekend as the Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a renewal of their twice-a-year grudge match. Even though the venom and hatred may have softened between the two sides over the last couple of years, we can still expect a hard-hitting, physical football game. The Ravens are motivated by a desire to take control of the AFC North, while the Steelers are desperate to rinse away the bad taste from their 35-7 loss to Baltimore on opening day. The tale of this game revolves around a match-up between two of the elite defensive units in the NFL and two offenses heading in opposite directions.

     The defenses are both playing at a high level. The Baltimore defense is in the top five in nearly every relevant statistical category and they have had to carry the load for their offense for most of this season. Make no mistake about it, without the stellar play from the Ravens’ defense, they would have been blown out against Jacksonville and they would never have had the opportunity to complete the amazing comeback last week against Arizona. The challenge for the Steelers will be to get anything going against a defense that allows only 3.3 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per attempt. Recently, Pittsburgh has been winning games behind the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger, but this match-up looks very tough especially when you consider that Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss the game to attend the funeral of his mother. The absence of Sanders reduces the overall speed of the Pittsburgh receivers as it thrusts Hines Ward and Jerricho Cotchery into more prominent roles. In the end, it may not matter against a defense that allows merely 174 yards passing per game. Let’s not forget that the Ravens get after the quarterback better than any team except for the N.Y. Giants. In the first match-up with Pittsburgh, the Ravens pressured Roethlisberger consistently throughout the entire game, which directly led to four sacks and five Roethlisberger turnovers. The bottom line is that the Ravens defense is playing at the same high level as the Pittsburgh offense, so this will be the match-up that I will be focused on. The one thing that we need to monitor is the health of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who missed his second day of practice on Thursday. If Ngata is unable to play on Sunday, then the pressure will be squarely on Terrance Cody to be the pocket-collapsing presence that Ngata normally provides.

     On the other side, the Steelers defense is no slouch either. They are the number one passing defense in the NFL and they find themselves in the top 10 in yards per rush, rushing yards per game and points allowed per game. They seem to have regained their swagger over the last few weeks, which is quite an achievement when you take a look at their injury report. They’ve been missing former defensive player of the year James Harrison for several weeks and they played last week without stalwart James Farrior after he had answered the bell in nearly 100 consecutive games. In addition, perhaps their best player, LaMarr Woodley, suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s game and is likely to be inactive this week. They have had to overcome all of these injuries in addition to losing one of the best two-way defensive linemen in the league, Aaron Smith, earlier in the season. As a result of the laundry list of injuries, the Steelers have struggled against the run at times and they have been a shell of their former selves as it relates to creating turnovers. Ultimately, the lack of star power has forced them to rely more on their scheme rather than their talent, which I believe has allowed them to play a sounder brand of football. Regardless, the Steelers have to be thrilled to be playing the Ravens offense right now. They will be facing a quarterback that has clearly regressed in his fourth year in the league and a running game that has struggled all season to get on track despite the presence of the dynamic Ray Rice. It will be imperative for the Steelers to force Joe Flacco to be the guy that beats them. Based on recent evidence, I don’t believe that Flacco has the necessary confidence in his game right now to beat a good defense with his arm. The best move for the Ravens will be to get the ball to Rice in open space to take advantage of the Steelers’ replacements at linebacker.

Three Keys to the Game
1. Stuff the run – For different reasons, neither team wants to rely too heavily on their quarterbacks. The Steelers don’t want to subject Big Ben to the likely beating he will take if he drops back 50 times like last week and the Ravens are already having nightmares about Flacco being forced to throw the ball 35 or more times. As a result, slowing down Rice and Rashard Mendenhall will be a focus area for both defenses.

2. Convert third down opportunities – Both defenses have been successful getting off the field on third down. However, the Steelers are one of only three teams that convert better than 50% of their third down opportunities. The offense that can stay on the field will be the offense that wins the game.

3. Field goals not touchdowns – Points are going to be at a premium in this game. As a result, each team needs to be stingy in the red zone to ensure that the other side is getting three points or less.

Prediction
Pittsburgh 17 – Baltimore 13