Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Three inexcusable losses and other NFL thoughts

(1)              Even though the Green Bay Packers are making it look easy, it is extremely difficult to win football games in the NFL.  Each week, teams have to overcome injuries, travel, inconsistent performance, mental mistakes and a host of other variables to claim victory.  As a result, it is imperative for NFL teams to win the games that they are “supposed” to win.  These must-win games include ones where the opponent is missing key players or the opponent is playing on a short week of preparation or the opponent has had to travel.  When teams take care of business when they are supposed to, then their margin for error is much greater when they face teams of equal or superior talent.  Unfortunately, three teams didn’t heed the warning and, as a result, suffered ugly losses that could negatively impact their ability to make the playoffs.

The most egregious loss was the 19-13 defeat suffered by the Dallas Cowboys to the Arizona Cardinals.  This defeat was especially devastating for three reasons.  First of all, the Cowboys mismanaged the end of the game situation so horribly that even Andy Reid cringed when he saw the highlights.  Dallas started the final drive with two timeouts and flew back to Texas with one still in their back pocket.  Instead, the Cowboys chose to spike the ball and allow 15-20 precious seconds to tick off the clock after completing a pass inside the Arizona 40-yard line.  It is inexcusable that none of the coaches or players had their heads in the game enough to call the timeout after the completion.  The most tragic part of the end of game sequence was that Jason Garrett decided to use one of the timeouts to ice his own kicker.  Secondly, the Cowboys have to be kicking themselves for allowing opportunity after opportunity to slip through their fingers.  They were in Cardinals’ territory on eight different occasions on Sunday and only came away with 13 points.  With the mismatch between the Dallas offense and the Arizona defense, it is amazing that the Cowboys were held to such a low point total.  Finally, the Cowboys had everything set up to put yet another nail in the New York Giants’ coffin, but they bumbled away the opportunity because of their no show in the desert.

In addition to the Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons should be embarrassed by their performance against the Houston Texans.  They had the chance to solidify their playoff position and keep the pressure on the New Orleans Saints, but squandered it to a Houston team starting their third quarterback in three weeks.  The Falcons had to overcome a hostile environment and the number two defense in the NFL, but, nonetheless, the stars were aligned for them to steal the win.  Instead, Atlanta reverted back to the pass-happy formula that was the chief culprit for their slow start to the season and it cost them dearly.  While Houston smartly implemented a game plan that emphasized the running game and protected rookie T.J. Yates, the Falcons decided to eschew their own power running game despite the fact that it was a one score game the entire way.  As a result, Matt Ryan attempted over 40 passes for the fifth time this season and saw his record in those games fall to 1-4.  After being one of the smarter head coaches in the league during his first three seasons, Mike Smith has had a year to forget.

The final example is the Chicago Bears’ inexplicable loss to the fading Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears know that no one is catching the Packers, but they needed this win to keep some distance between them and the Falcons, Lions, Giants, etc.  Even though they were playing with Caleb Hanie as their quarterback, the Bears should have found a way to win this game.  Their defense and special teams should have created enough positive field position to allow Robbie Gould to kick four or five field goals.  Instead, the Bears’ offensive day went like this: seven punts, three interceptions, one made field goal and one missed field goal.  They deserve a little benefit of the doubt because they lost their best offensive player, Matt Forte, midway through the game, which furthered diminished their offensive capability.  Nevertheless, Chicago is going to rue the day they blew this game.

(2)  With four weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFC playoff picture has developed a clear dichotomy between the teams at the top and the teams fighting for the final three playoff berths.  With a win or a San Francisco loss, the Packers will clinch the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  There is no doubt that Green Bay will earn the top seed.  There is a little more intrigue in the race for the second first-round bye between New Orleans and San Francisco.  Only one game separates the two teams, but the 49ers currently own the tiebreaker with a better conference record and they have an easier schedule with upcoming games against Arizona, Seattle & St. Louis.  As a result, San Francisco will earn the second seed, while New Orleans will have to settle for the third seed and a home game during Wild Card weekend.  After the chalk of the conference, the NFC playoff picture gets extremely muddled.  Right now, the Cowboys, Bears and Falcons are holding on to the final three spots, but it doesn’t feel like Chicago is going to be able to overcome the loss of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte down the stretch.  Unfortunately, the teams on the outside looking in don’t inspire confidence either.  The Giants and Lions are heading in the wrong direction, while the Seahawks seem to be playing better but they may have waited too long to make a move.  In the end, it feels like the Lions are going to be able to snatch the sixth and final spot behind Atlanta and Dallas.  There is really no rhyme or reason for this choice other than a gut feeling.

            In the AFC, the playoff picture is about as clear as tinted windows.  There are four teams at 9-3 and five teams at 7-5.  Right now, New England holds the top seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston and the conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore.  Outside of a road trip to Denver, the Patriots seem to have a very manageable schedule especially when you consider they have the top coach and quarterback in the AFC.  As a result, the Patriots will end the season as the AFC East Division champs and the top seed in the conference.  Below them, Baltimore will take advantage of a favorable schedule to earn the other first round bye, which means they will host a playoff game for the first time in the John Harbaugh era.  With a two-game lead over Tennessee, the Texans will ride their outstanding defense and dynamic running game to the AFC South title and the third seed.  Rounding out the AFC playoff picture, the Broncos will continue to ride the Tebow magic carpet to the AFC West title, while the Oakland Raiders watch their promising season go up in smoke thanks to a host of recent injuries.  As far as the wild cards, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have locked up the fifth seed.  The sixth and final spot will go to the N.Y. Jets as they make another late season run to the postseason.

(3) Quick Hits
  • The Seahawks put together their most complete performance of the season with a 31-14 victory over the reeling Eagles.  It is true that Philly didn’t help itself too much, but the Hawks showed that they have the potential to be a competent football team.  It is too bad that the Hawks blew a 17-7 fourth quarter lead against Washington a week prior because they would be right in the thick of the NFC playoff race instead of on the periphery.
  •  The Titans are playing great football thanks to finding their lost running game over the last four weeks.  Chris Johnson has run for 130 yards or more in three of the last four weeks after gaining 100 yards just once through the first eight weeks.  Unfortunately, the Titans have to face the sizzling New Orleans Saints, which will likely put a halt to Tennessee’s playoff dreams.
  •  The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes after starting the year with seven consecutive defeats.  However, over the last five weeks, the Fins are a bad snap away from being undefeated.  The keys to the hot streak has been more than competent quarterback play from Matt Moore, a rediscovered running game led by Reggie Bush and a resurgent defense.  The Dolphins are averaging nearly 28 points per game after starting the year scoring only 15 points per game.
  • The last time the Giants faced an undefeated juggernaut they lost 38-35 in a spirited week 17 tilt with the New England Patriots.  The competitive loss triggered an impressive 4-0 run through the playoffs, including a 17-14 upset of the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.  Will the latest 38-35 setback unleash a string of victories for New York? 
  • Do you think Shad Khan is having buyer’s remorse in Jacksonville?  Fresh off the news of his imminent purchase of the team, the Jaguars laid a gigantic egg on national television.  While Maurice Jones-Drew continued to show that he is the only legitimate offensive weapon that the Jags possess, Khan surely made note of the struggles at the quarterback position and a defense that was clearly outclassed by the San Diego offense.

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