Are the Colts vulnerable and other NFL thoughts

(1) For the first time since 1970, the NFL does not have a 4-0 team. The Indianapolis Colts ensured this result with a methodical 19-9 victory over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The game was not pretty, but the Colts once again flashed their veteran moxie, which allowed them to pull out a victory that most teams would be unable to earn. They won this game despite the fact that Peyton Manning had one of his worst days in recent memory thanks to the assortment of nickel and dime packages that Romeo Crennel unleashed on him. I’m sure that Crennel reached into the old bag of tricks that he used when the New England Patriots tormented Manning during their dynastic run during the early part of the 2000s. Unfortunately, the strong defensive effort from the young Chiefs was not enough as the Colts got four field goals from Adam Vinatieri and a late touchdown from third-string running back Mike Hart to escape with the big victory.


The Colts’ struggles against the Chiefs is more proof that this year’s team is more flawed than some of the other Colts teams during their prolonged run of 12 win seasons. Their passing game is still one of their strengths, but it was out of synch all game against the Chiefs, which directly contributed to their inability to score touchdowns and struggle to convert third down opportunities. Nevertheless, I don’t believe that the Colts have anything to worry about when it comes to their passing attack. Manning finished week five with over 1,600 yards passing and the Colts entered this Sunday’s game with the number two passing game in the NFL at 335 yards per game. The bigger concerns for Indianapolis are their lack of a true running game and their inability to stop their opponent’s running game. The former is going to continue to put Manning in the precarious position of having to throw the football constantly in order to have a chance to win. I’m not really sure why the running game has been so inconsistent considering that Manning is a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. Manning’s presence alone should be enough to open up some decent running lanes, but Indianapolis has been shut down on a regular basis. The Colts entered the game with the 29th ranked rushing offense in the NFL and actually improved their ranking with a 97 yard effort against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, Joseph Addai left with an injury, which meant the Colts had to dig deep into the depth chart to find someone to run the football. It will be interesting to see where the Colts go from here. In the past, they have been able to win a lot of games without the greatest running game, but this team seems to have less of a margin for error.

The biggest reason that the Colts’ margin has shrunk is related to the gradual decaying of their defense. After a stellar year in 2007 when Indianapolis finished 3rd overall in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 1st in turnover ratio and 1st in scoring defense, the Colts have dropped all the way to the 23rd ranked defense so far in 2010. They are middle of the pack in passing defense and points allowed. Their sack rate per game is down about a ½ sack from 2009 and they continue to struggle stopping the run as their 29th ranked rushing defense attests. The fact of the matter is that Indianapolis has not been better than the 15th ranked rush defense in the last five seasons. Frankly, their porous run defense has not stopped them from winning before and I don’t expect it to be a hindrance this year. I would be more concerned about the worsening scoring defense, which has increased from 16.4 pts/gm in 2007 to 20.2 pts/gm through the first five weeks of 2010, and the declining sack rate, which has occurred despite the presence of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. On the other hand, maybe I shouldn’t be concerned at all about the Indianapolis defense because the last time that they performed this badly on defense they won their only Super Bowl title in the Manning era. Instead of being a cause for concern, the Colts are probably just playing possum with the rest of the league just like they did prior to their Super Bowl winning run when they allowed 212.5 rushing yards per game during the last quarter of the season. I still think that the Colts are the class of the AFC South and they will emerge as the division champs after everything is said and done.

(2) I’m wondering if the New Orleans Saints have come back from their lengthy celebration of their Super Bowl victory yet. I’m asking because the team that has taken the field in 2010 bears little resemblance to the 2009 juggernaut that led the league in total offense and scoring offense. Last year’s team won games by an average of 10 points, while this year’s team is giving up more points than they are scoring. On the surface, not much has changed with the Saints, but underneath the covers there are a lot of things for Saints fans to worry about. First of all, this year’s team is sputtering along on offense as their overall production has decreased by 15% from 2009 numbers. My first observation from watching some of their games is that the Saints are not producing the big play (20+ yards) as consistently as they have in the past. Through the first five games of last season, the Saints produced 29 plays of 20 yards or more, including an astonishing nine in their rout of the New York Giants in week six. Through the same period this year, New Orleans has generated just 15 big plays, including just one against the inexperienced Carolina Panthers defense.

As a result of their inability to make big plays and score quickly, the Saints have been forced to put together long drives by focusing on short & intermediate routes as well as their running game. The short passing game has been fairly effective, but the Saints’ running game has failed them completely after being a strength in 2009. The New Orleans’ running game production is down 42% from a year ago, which has short-circuited the Saints attack. It hasn’t helped to lose Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas for multiple games, but New Orleans actually had their best running day, against Carolina, when both Thomas and Bush were unavailable. As a result, opposing defenses have been able to take away a huge part of the Saints game plan and put even more pressure on Brees and the short passing game. With Brees under greater pressure, the turnovers have increased slightly and the Saints have been unable to sustain long drives on a regular basis. In addition, New Orleans has not been able to translate their successful drives into touchdowns, settling for field goal attempts at a seemingly higher rate. The problem with more field goal attempts is that their kicking game is one of the worst five or six in the NFL with less than 70% field goal accuracy. Finally, it has hurt to not have Bush available to return punts, which has reduced the threat of getting a big play in the return game. The overall result is that the Saints are scoring approximately 12 points less per game than one year ago, which is a shame because their defense is playing well enough for the Saints to be an undefeated team. Their defense is 9th in total defense and they are giving up about 20 points per game, which is good for 17th in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Saints are making too many mistakes to take advantage of the positive play from their defense. A missed field goal cost them a victory against the Falcons and three turnovers, which led to 21 points, cost them the game against Arizona. I still think the Saints can win the NFC South, but they are going to have to find ways to recapture the big play component that they relied on so much last season.

(3) The NFL has always been a league of parity, but the 2010 season might be taking things to a whole other level. After Kansas City went down this weekend, we are left without any undefeated teams just five weeks into the season. We have three teams: Atlanta, Baltimore and the N.Y. Jets (depending on what happens on Monday Night) who are trying to separate themselves from the rest of the league. Their success is built on heady quarterback play, strong defense and a productive running game. After five weeks, this trio is the closest thing that we have to elite teams in the NFL. I think that the Pittsburgh Steelers are right on the heels of this first group. If the integration of Ben Roethlisberger goes smoothly, then they probably jump right in to the top two because their defense is solid. Also, we have a threesome of really bad teams that have yet to earn a victory. The Carolina Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback and the last year of the John Fox regime seems to be heading to a fiery crash landing. The Buffalo Bills are probably the biggest disaster in the NFL and they recently released their former franchise quarterback and traded their former franchise running back. They are starting a journeyman quarterback and the rest of their roster does not have enough talent to win at the NFL level. If the NFL was run like a European soccer league, the Bills would have long been demoted to the UFL or the Big East, where it would be much easier for them to reclaim their lost glory. The San Francisco 49ers have gone from NFC West front-runners to NFL punch lines in the span of five weeks due to a symphony of turnovers, bad coaching and disinterested play. The York family may still believe that the 49ers will win the division, but no one else does. After separating the cream from the top of the NFL and the coffee grounds that inhabit the bottom of the league, we are left with 26 teams that are all about the same.

In this mix in the middle, we have teams like the Washington Redskins, who can get embarrassed by the St. Louis Rams on the road one week and dominate the Green Bay Packers at home the next. The Skins appear to have a stout defense, but their offense has yet to get on track even though they added Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb. We also have the Arizona Cardinals, who have been destroyed twice this season and have also defeated the defending Super Bowl champs without any real contribution from their offense. Does anyone outside of Phoenix truly think that the Cardinals are a good team? If so, then I have some prime farmland to sell them in the Mojave Desert. Let us not forget the mediocre Cincinnati Bengals, who won the AFC North last season and probably couldn’t even win the Cincinnati Metro Athletic Conference this season. The Bengals front office handed Carson Palmer some shiny new offensive toys and he has managed to turn it into a pile of cow feces with a side of rat droppings. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the most “competitive” division in the NFL: the AFC South. I’m thinking that fans of this division would love to describe it as being competitive, but it would only be a smokescreen to hide how badly the four teams have played. The Texans beat the AFC South bullies, the Indianapolis Colts, during week one, but have been dismantled by the Dallas Cowboys and N.Y. Giants at Reliant Stadium. The Colts have good wins over the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, but they have dug themselves a huge division hole due to their losses to Houston and Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing pretty well, but how can we forget their disasters on the road at San Diego and at home against Philadelphia. Finally, the Tennessee Titans got a big road victory in Dallas just one week after falling flat at home against Denver. The bottom line is that I can’t trust most of these teams at all. I went 7-7 with my week four picks and I need the Jets to win on Monday Night just to reach a .500 record this week. It may not be good for gamblers, but the roller coaster nature of the 2010 season is gold for fans even though you never know how your favorite team is going to perform.