Three Reasons Why Seattle Wins on the Road

Since their Super Bowl season in 2005, the Seahawks have won only once in seven trips to the desert.  They have lost to Matt Leinart twice, Kurt Warner twice, John Skelton once, and a combination of Skelton and Kevin Kolb once.  In other words, Seattle hasn’t been beaten by a ton of Hall of Fame quarterbacks during this recent stretch of futility in the Valley of the Sun.  This trend doesn’t bode well considering they will be facing another middling NFL quarterback on Thursday Night.  The biggest certainty about tonight’s game in Glendale is that it will be a close, hard-fought ball game since the last seven visits to Arizona have been decided by an average of 3.1 points.  In order to break out of this desert malaise, it is imperative that the Seahawks have a fast start to the game in order to take out the home crowd and immediately cast doubt in the minds of the Cardinals that they will be able to win the game.  This would be the exact opposite of what occurred last season when Seattle, in Russell Wilson’s first NFL start, allowed Arizona to keep the game close and ultimately allowed Kevin Kolb to come off the bench and lead a come-from-behind victory.  It’s no secret that Seattle has struggled on the road recently, but I’m picking them to win for the following reasons.  

The defense will force Carson Palmer into mistakes.

Despite the Heisman Trophy and USC pedigree, Palmer has largely been a mediocre quarterback during his 11-year NFL career.  He isn’t a particularly accurate thrower of the football.  He has only completed 62% of his career attempts and has surpassed 65% just once in his career (2006).  He has shown a propensity to turn the ball throughout his career, but even more so during the two-plus seasons he has spent in Oakland and Arizona.  Palmer has averaged about 1.5 turnovers per game in his 11 seasons, but that number has increased to nearly 1.7 in 31 starts spanning the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons.  It is absolutely critical that Seattle keeps making him look mortal and doesn’t allow him to morph into the Carson Palmer from 2005-2007, who looked on the precipice of becoming the next great NFL quarterback.  Keeping Palmer in check will be a challenge for the Seahawks because they have allowed a Total QBR on the road that is nearly five times greater than the Total QBR they have allowed at home this season.  However, I believe this Seattle defense is up to the challenge because, outside of Larry Fitzgerald, this Arizona team does not have the offensive weapons to expose them like the Texans and Colts did at times.  Ultimately, the Seahawks defense will make the pocket an uncomfortable place for Palmer to be, which will lead to the takeaways that will fuel a Seattle victory.

Seattle will lead with the passing game.

The Pete Carroll formula for winning football games calls for playing physically, especially across the offensive and defensive lines, running the ball effectively, and attacking through the air off of play action.  However, Arizona has been especially strong this season playing the run (9^th in yards per game and 4^th in yard per attempt) and it appears that they will be at full strength with ESPN reporting that Calais Campbell will play despite the scary injury he sustained on Sunday.  In simpler terms, it should be tough sledding for Seattle on the ground.  They will have to run the ball to keep the Cardinals honest, but they will have to be effective through the air to win the game. The key for Seattle’s success will be to continue to use play action to set up Russell Wilson from the pocket.  Wilson has attempted 65 throws off play action this year, the second-highest total in the NFL, and his 93.5 Total QBR on such throws ranks behind only Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.  In addition, I think that the Seattle receivers are going to be highly motivated to have a big game due to all of the talk this week about their alleged struggles to get separation from defenders.  As a result, Seattle will be able to take advantage of the shakiest part of the Arizona defense, their pass defense. 

The special teams will play a clean game.

Seattle has had two notable kicking game gaffes the last two weeks: the blocked field goal in Indianapolis that completely changed the complexion of that game and the flukey botched field goal that led to a 77-yard fumble return for Tennessee last week.  While neither of these mistakes point to systemic issue with the Seattle special teams, it is still going to be necessary for the Seahawks to play a clean game in this area.  In my opinion, a clean game doesn’t just mean avoiding blocked kicks, but it also means that Seattle covers kicks effectively and takes advantage of opportunities to create good field position.  A major focus area should to limit the punt return yardage for Patrick Peterson.  His average per return is down about 10 yards since his rookie season, but Seattle shouldn’t forget that he has the same talent that led to four punt return touchdowns in 20111.  Fortunately, this assignment should not be too difficult for Seattle as their punt coverage team leads the NFL with a return average allowed of only 1.3 yards.  In what I expect to be a close game, Seattle’s strong kicking game and coverage units will making a huge contribution to Seattle winning this game.