Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Quick Hits - Week Six

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Cincinnati 27 – Buffalo 24
It’s truly remarkable that the Bills started a quarterback from Duke University on Sunday.  The same Duke University that hasn’t made an appearance in the AP Top 25 poll since 1994.  The same high-powered football program that has appeared in three bowl games since 1961.  The same football factory that hasn’t won a conference title since sharing an ACC title back in 1989.  Somehow, despite all of the quarterbacks from higher pedigree programs, Thad Lewis has managed to buck the odds and actually start two NFL games in his career.  I can’t think of a less likely Football Subdivision program to produce an NFL quarterback than Duke University.  Nevertheless, there was Lewis on Sunday playing a surprisingly competent game and nearly leading the Bills to an upset of the Bengals.  It has become a precarious situation to play quarterback for Buffalo, but here’s hoping that the Thad Lewis era continues for a few more weeks.

Detroit 31 – Cleveland 17
The Lions are the sleeper team in the NFC.  They have a potentially explosive offense when they have everyone healthy and they might just have enough defense to ensure that they won’t have to win 35-31 shootouts every week.  The biggest keys for Detroit going forward are to keep Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush healthy because their offense is not the same without them. 

Kansas City 24 – Oakland 7
For all you fans of the SAT, here is an analogy: the Chiefs are to defense as the Broncos are to offense.  Kansas City has used the NFL’s number one scoring defense and number five overall defense to counter an offense that is as bland as a piece of Wonder Bread with butter.  In fact, it is probably an insult to buttered Wonder Bread to compare it to the Chiefs offense.  Led by their quarterback Captain Checkdown, Kansas City managed to throttle the Raiders despite 216 total yards of offense, including a measly 105 yards passing.  They might not have played the toughest schedule thus far, but the Chiefs are definitely the biggest threat to the Broncos running away and hiding from the rest of the AFC.  There should be no reason for Kansas City to not be 9-0 when they play Denver in Week 11.

Carolina 35 – Minnesota 10
Both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out.  The Panthers were fresh off laying a gigantic egg in the desert last week, but managed to put together their most complete performance of the season in destroying the listless Vikings.  It is inconceivable to me how Minnesota can play so poorly following a bye week.  Isn’t the week off supposed to be an advantage to the team that gets the break?  I had the same question after Carolina sleep-walked through their game with Arizona last week.  Maybe the Vikings were angry about Rick Spielman’s decision to bring clubhouse cancer Josh Freeman onto the roster or maybe they were just too upset about the Adrian Peterson tragedy to get their minds around playing competitive football.  On the topic of Peterson, I found it odd that he chose to practice with the team and play on Sunday in light of the death of his son.  In no other walk of life would a person be expected to continue working after experiencing a similar personal loss.  The personal attacks on Peterson were over the top, but I do feel it is appropriate to raise the issue of why professional athletes are expected to continue playing through personal trauma, babies being born, etc.

Pittsburgh 19 – NY Jets 6
Just when it appeared that Geno Smith had taken a big step forward following his flawless performance in week five, the Steelers defense brought him crashing back to Earth.  The key to Pittsburgh’s success against Smith was eliminating his greatest skill: downfield throwing.  Smith came into the game averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt over his last three starts, but he was quickly converted into the master of the check down.  As a result, Smith could only muster 5.9 yards per attempt, which was his lowest number of the season.  In order to be successful this year, the Jets have to get off the Geno Smith roller coaster.  He is clearly their quarterback now and in the future, but he has to find some consistency from week to week. 

Philadelphia 31 – Tampa Bay 20
Am I the only person who is getting the feeling that Michael Vick won't be getting his job back when he is healthy?  In order for Chip Kelly to run the offense that he wants to run, his quarterback needs to protect the football and be accurate.  Vick does neither of those things very well.  He is barely a 56% passer for his career and he has turned the ball over 173 times in only 126 games played.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles has completed over 67% of his attempts and has yet to turn the ball over in his limited time replacing Vick.  Keep in mind that Foles ran an up tempo offense at Arizona that required him to deliver the football quickly and accurately.  Unless Foles gets injured or starts to play terribly, I would predict that Vick's time as the starter in Philly has come to an end.

Green Bay 19 – Baltimore 17
The Packers are certainly happy about getting the road win against the defending Super Bowl champs, but they are starting to run out of healthy wide receivers.  The biggest loss was due to the fractured fibula for Randall Cobb, which is expected to keep him out of the line-up for four to eight weeks.  Cobb is an integral part of the offense because he works the middle of the defense, which creates space for Jordy Nelson and James Jones to work the boundaries and the deep ball.  In addition to Cobb's injury, there is uncertainty about the health of Jones' knee after he suffered a PCL sprain on Sunday.  If both guys are unavailable in Week Seven, then the burden will fall on the dynamic Nelson and the inconsistent Jermichael Finley to carry the load in the passing game.  My guess is that the Packers will try to work the running game a bit more with their promising young tandem of running backs, Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin.

St. Louis 38 – Houston 13
The situation in Houston has gone from bad to worse after the Texans got shellacked for the second consecutive week by an NFC West foe.  The fan base has completely turned on starting quarterback Matt Schaub, which has led to fans burning his jersey, showing up at his home, and cheering after he got hurt against the Rams.  The Schaub backlash has created a toxic relationship between the team and its fans, which include Texans players lashing out at the fans for their actions after he got hurt.  In the near term, things are not going to get better because Houston has to travel to Kansas City to face the best defense in football with T.J. Yates or Case Keenum calling the signals. 

Denver 35 – Jacksonville 19
The Jags deserve a round of applause for putting up a good fight against the heavily-favored Broncos.  They were only down two points at halftime and it was a single-digit deficit until the fourth quarter.  They single-handedly doubled the number of turnovers that Manning had the entire season.  The other thing that was clear from this game is that the Jags offense is completely different with Justin Blackmon in the line-up.  There is a reason why Chad Henne threw nearly 50% of his attempts to Blackmon, who didn't disappoint with 14 receptions for 190 yards.  The Jags have to do everything in their power to keep him on the straight and narrow path because he is the most legitimate play-maker that they have.

New England 30 – New Orleans 27
The Houdini act pulled off by the Patriots was extremely impressive, but it wasn't the only impressive thing that I took from this game.  The Pats deserve a lot of props for holding all world tight end, Jimmy Graham, without a catch for the first time since the seventh game of his rookie season before he became a household name.  The job that Aqib Talib did on Graham will go down in the annals of New England football.  Another impressive feat accomplished by the Patriots on Sunday was forcing Drew Brees to misfire on 19 of his 36 attempts.  This is the same guy who is a 66% passer for his career and has twice completed 70% or more of his attempts over an entire season.  The only downer, and it's a big one, is that New England lost Jerod Mayo to a season-ending injury and might not have the services of Talib for this Sunday's game.

San Francisco 32 – Arizona 20
The 49ers have two legitimate receiving threats and, somehow, the Arizona defense allowed one of those threats to go absolutely bananas on Sunday as Vernon Davis racked up 180 yards receiving and two touchdowns.  Davis is a dynamic player but shame on the Cardinals coaching staff for not coming up with some kind of adjustment to limit the damage.

Dallas 31 – Washington 16
The Team with the Offensive Name had their best defensive effort of the season, but still lost by double digits because the self-inflicted wounds were too serious to overcome.  Their biggest sin was their inability to stop Dwayne Harris from destroying them in the kick return game.  Harris had an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown and followed that humongous play with a 90-yard kickoff return that set-up a short touchdown toss to Terrance Williams.  Since the Cowboys were largely unable to move the ball throughout the game, these two plays were the difference in the game.  In addition to the special teams mistakes, Washington couldn't overcome the inefficient passing day from RGIII or his two turnovers.  His biggest mistake was a fumble inside his own five-yard line that set-up a Joseph Randle touchdown plunge to cap the scoring.  Washington also committed 12 penalties for over 100 yards, which kept them behind the sticks all game long.  In what is fast becoming a lost season for Washington, they have to be really kicking themselves for letting this game get away.

San Diego 19 – Indianapolis 9
Did the Colts and Chargers somehow switch identities before the game?  Fresh off of knocking the Seattle Seahawks from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Colts looked completely lost against the Chargers.  They couldn't sustain drives on offense and their defense couldn't get San Diego off the field consistently.  Conversely, the Chargers controlled the action with their strongest rushing effort of the season and an effective play-action passing attack.  Normally, I think that time of possession is one of the most overrated statistics in football, but it gains a little in value when the numbers are skewed heavily to a particular team.  San Diego held the ball for nearly two-thirds of this game and it left me feeling that the Colts barely had the football, which is actually kind of true.  I just never saw it coming that Indianapolis would struggle this badly with a San Diego defense that hadn't stopped anyone since the first half against Houston in the opening week of the season.  The Colts were either hungover from their physical battle with Seattle last week or maybe they are not as good as many thought they were.

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