The match-up on Thursday Night Football between Carolina and Tampa Bay is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. On one side, you have the Panthers who are trying to move above .500 for the first time since the 2008 season. They are led by the league’s number two scoring defense and a quarterback who is having more success playing like Clark Kent instead of Superman. The team is riding a two-game winning streak thanks to continued defensive excellence and cool efficiency from Cam Newton. On the other side, you have the Buccaneers who appear to be on the verge of a complete and total meltdown. They released the alleged locker room cancer Josh Freeman, but there continue to be rumors swirling about the general dislike that Bucs’ players have for head coach Greg Schiano. I subscribe to the “where there is smoke there is fire” theory, so it is not a good thing that the relationship between the head coach and the players is the biggest story line of the season. In addition to the interpersonal soap opera, the Bucs continue to deal with a staph infection issue that has infected at least three players. After playing Tampa this past weekend, the Atlanta Falcons sent in a cleaning team dressed like characters straight out of the movie Contagion to ensure that the visitors’ locker room was free of any trace of the MRSA bacteria. Adding insult to injury, Tampa Bay lost their number one running back, Doug Martin, to a season-ending injury, which is sure to put even more strain on an offense that couldn’t score when Martin was in the line-up. With the Bucs facing a short week on top of all the on- and off-the-field issues, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to defeat Carolina, who clearly should be the more motivated team on Thursday night. For the reasons above, as well as the three that follow, I’m picking Carolina to beat Tampa Bay and have a winning record for the first time since Jake Delhomme was still a relevant quarterback.
Mike Glennon and company will be unable to sustain drives.
Tampa Bay is the second worst offense in the league after seven weeks. They are in the bottom third of the league in converting third down opportunities into first downs. While they have looked a lot more like a legitimate NFL offense the last two weeks, it is going to be difficult to continue the upward trend after losing one of the best offensive players on their roster. With Martin out of the line-up, Carolina is going to be able to focus more attention on Mike Glennon, which should lead to a pressure-filled evening for the rookie punctuated by multiple turnovers and several cringe-inducing decisions. As a result, I’m picking the over on the number of punts that Michael Koenen has compared to his per game average. When Tampa does get an opportunity in the scoring zone, the Carolina defense will limit the damage to three points or less. The one x-factor for the Tampa offense is the budding relationship between Glennon and Vincent Jackson. This connection gives the Bucs their best chance to put the ball in the end zone because Jackson has the ability to catch the deep ball and turn a shorter route into a long touchdown. Nevertheless, the Bucs inability to move the chains on a regular basis will undermine any benefit they get from a big play.
Efficient football from Cam Newton.
It is difficult for someone as talented as Newton to admit that doing less will actually benefit the team in the long run. He is the same guy that carried his teams to junior college and NCAA national championships. He is the same player that burst onto the NFL scene in 2011 with 35 total touchdowns and over 4,000 yards passing. He had a similar statistical season in 2012, but the performance of his team declined. After getting so much praise during his rookie season, the haters were out in full force after season number two to pile a heaping serving of blame pie on his back. I’m sure all of his critics forced Newton to do some serious soul-searching in the offseason. Whether he has made a conscious decision to play more within himself, Newton is enjoying greater team success due to a less is more approach that has him on pace to post the highest QB rating, lowest number of total turnovers, highest completion percentage, and highest TD total of his career. Whatever the reason might be, Newton is playing the most efficient football of his career. He has completed at least 75% of his attempts in back-to-back games for the first time in his professional career and his 89.4 Total QBR over the last two weeks is best in the NFL. If he is able to continue this brand of football against Tampa, then he will finally be able to say that he is the starting quarterback on a winning NFL football team.
Carolina’s front four will dominate the Tampa offensive line.
The Panthers defensive line is capable of pressuring without the aid of blitzing linebackers and stopping the run. Specifically, the additions of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei have solidified the point of attack and have provided increased pressure from the middle of the line. With Tampa likely to be without Carl Nicks tonight, the presence of Short and Lotulelei becomes even bigger. With the Panthers applying pressure with just four down linemen, Mike Glennon is not going to find a lot of open wide receivers, which will lead to him holding the football and taking sacks. As a result of the defensive line dominating, the Carolina defense can pick its spots to bring blitzes with the purpose of causing game-changing turnovers. The Bucs are not going to be able to hold up with no running game, a depleted offensive line, and a rookie quarterback.
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