Quick Hits - Week Four

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

Buffalo 23 - Baltimore 20
Anyone who has read my blog knows that I'm not a member of the Joe Flacco Fan Club.  I give him the utmost respect and credit for his unbelievable playoff performance last season, but a Super Bowl ring doesn't immediately mean that he is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.  I've always been of the opinion that he needs to earn his place in the quarterback hierarchy by performing at a reasonably high level on a week to week basis.  He hasn't done anything this year to change my opinion.  According to ESPN Stats and Info, Flacco has thrown seven interceptions and posted a total QBR of 35.7.  For the purpose of comparison, Peyton Manning has posted a total QBR of 80+ in six consecutive regular season games, which is the longest such streak for any QB in the last eight seasons.  Flacco apologists would point to the Anquan Boldin trade and injuries to Dennis Pitta and Ray Rice as reasons why he has been unable to build on the success he had in last year's playoffs.  In response, I would point to Tom Brady, who has his team at 4-0 despite playing with a bunch of rookies, free agents, and cast-offs at wide receiver and running back.  Flacco is definitely a big-game quarterback, but he is neither a consistent nor an elite one.

Cleveland 17 - Cincinnati 6
The Browns sure have a funny way of throwing in the towel.  After many observers, including me, assumed that they were waving the white flag after trading Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts, the Browns have gone out and won two games in a row.  Their latest victory was a methodical dismembering of the Cincinnati Bengals led by their surprising defense and an efficient performance by Brian Hoyer.  Their defense is allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry and they have done a great job of getting after the quarterback.  More importantly, the Browns may just have found their starting quarterback for at least the remainder of the 2013 season.  Hoyer has appeared to have Wally Pipped Brandon Weeden after winning his first two starts in a Cleveland uniform.  I'm sure he received a graduate-level education about taking advantage of opportunities from his time around Tom Brady.  The offense, which looked utterly incompetent with Weeden at the controls, has been surprisingly productive with the career back-up running the show.  With a win on Thursday night and a Baltimore loss over the weekend, the Browns will find themselves at the top of the AFC North.

Detroit 40 - Chicago 32
Over the last few years, the fortunes of the Chicago Bears have been entirely dependent on which version of their starting quarterback shows up on game day.  If they got the good Jay Cutler, then the Bears were one of the toughest teams to beat because Cutler has as much pure talent as any quarterback in the NFL. Unfortunately, when the bad Cutler showed, which is far too frequently for the tastes of many Chicago fans, the Bears could be easily beaten.  For most of the 2013 season, Chicago has been treated to the Mr. Hyde version of Jay Cutler.  He had kept his turnover issues to a minimum and, most importantly, his offensive line was providing protection that heretofore had been unheard of in the Windy City.  However, the train went way off the tracks against the Lions.  Cutler was under constant pressure from the Detroit front seven, which led to four total turnovers and ultimately a Chicago loss.  If it hadn't been for two garbage time touchdown passes, the overall numbers for Cutler would have been truly ghastly.  If the Bears have any chance of returning to the NFC playoffs, they have to find the good Cutler as soon as possible.

Kansas City 31 - New York Giants 7
The Chiefs are the biggest surprise of the first quarter of the NFL season.  After destroying the Giants, they became the second team in NFL history to start a season 4-0 following a season when they won two or fewer games.  They have been successful in 2013 because their defense was playing at a high level and their offense had played efficient, mistake-free football.  Although they suffered their first three turnovers of the season, Kansas City got another strong effort from their defense and their first big contribution from the special teams area.  With KC clinging to a 10-7 lead late in the third quarter, Dexter McCluster fielded a New York punt at his own 11-yard line and proceeded to weave his way through the Giants' punt coverage team for a touchdown that proved to be the beginning of the end for the G-Men.  In my opinion, the Chiefs are clearly the second best team in the AFC.  If there offense can take a step or two forward and they continue to hold steady with the contributions they are getting from the other two areas, then they pose the greatest threat to the Denver Broncos.

Minnesota 34 - Pittsburgh 27
It is quite amazing how far the Steelers have fallen.  Since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2010 season, Pittsburgh lost in the Wild Card round to Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos in 2011, missed the playoffs in 2012, and have started the 2013 season with four straight losses.  They are a team that is unrecognizable to those of us that have grown up on the Steelers tradition of tough defense and a smash mouth running game.  Overall, the Dick LeBeau-led defense is ranked the 11th best unit in the NFL, but a deeper look indicates that there are significant problems.  First of all, they are the 29th best run defense and they have already allowed six rushing touchdowns.  For perspective, the Steelers haven't finished outside the top ten in run defense since 2003 and the most rushing TDs they have allowed during the same period was 10. Secondly, they are allowing over 27 points per game, which is the most they have allowed since at least 2002.  Finally, the Blitzburgh defense, so well known for the innovative zone blitz scheme, has only sacked the quarterback four times in 2013, which has resulted in opposing quarterbacks posting a 91.4 QB rating. Without significant improvement, the Steelers will be hard pressed to win more than three or four games this year.

Arizona 13 - Tampa Bay 10
The daily drama in Tampa is bordering on the absurd.  This kind of ridiculousness is the type of situation that leads to wholesale housecleaning.  It is already crystal clear that Josh Freeman will soon no longer be affiliated with the organization, but if the rest of the "leaders" don't get things moving in the right direction then the GM, head coach, and coaching staff will probably be unemployed by the end of the season.  I honestly don't understand the level of animosity between the coaching staff and the former starting quarterback.  It's fine if Coach Schiano wants to move Freeman out so that his draft pick, Mike Glennon, can get a chance to lead the team.  When there is a regime change, the holdovers are always aware that they might not fit nicely into the plans of the new folks running the team.  However, I just don't agree with the immature and dishonest way that Schiano went about undermining Freeman's place on the team.  If Glennon was his guy, then he should have started him from day one instead of giving half-hearted votes of confidence to Freeman. Keep in mind that Freeman hasn't been above reproach either.  Missing team photos and demanding trades when the going gets tough is not the best way to generate interest from the other 31 teams.  Regardless of Freeman's actions, he doesn't deserve to have his privacy violated when he was falsely (apparently) accused of being in the NFL drug program for failing a test.  I think Freeman has effectively killed his trade value, but he can rest assured that he will still get paid after the Bucs cut him in the next week or two.  The fate of Greg Schiano will be determined by the team's performance on the field, but it doesn't look good when the Denver Broncos are averaging more points than the Bucs have scored in total.

Indianapolis 37 - Jacksonville 3
Pretty simple, the Colts are good and the Jags are bad.  The only thing left to wonder about the Jacksonville season is whether they will join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams in NFL history to finish a season 0-16.

Tennessee 38 - New York Jets
The Titans appeared to have a good thing going until Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples sent Jake Locker to the hospital with a double dose of late hits.  Up to that point, Locker had thrown three touchdown passes and the Titans were well on their way to a blow out victory over the Jets.  Unfortunately, he finished the day at a Nashville hospital being evaluated for a potentially season-ending injury.  The silver lining is that Locker's hip injury turned out to be significant enough for him to be placed on the IR - Designated to Return list, but not severe enough to end his 2013 season.  With Locker on the shelf, the Titans are going to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played his way out of favor in Buffalo because he couldn't stop throwing the football to the other team.  It's my prediction that the Titans' run as the last NFL team to commit a turnover this year will end when Kansas City pays a visit this coming Sunday.  For the Titans to continue their early season success without their starting quarterback, they are going to need their defense to play even better and they are going to need to put an APB out for a competent running game, which hasn't been seen in these parts for the better part of three and a half seasons.

Denver 52 - Philadelphia 20
We can quibble about the quality of Denver's competition, but the offensive numbers they are producing are absolutely staggering.  They are currently on pace to shatter the NFL record for points scored in a single season by over 100 points!  An even more incredible stat is that the Broncos are averaging more points (44.8) than the Buccaneers and Jaguars have scored in total (44 and 31 points respectively).  Peyton Manning has tied an NFL record for most touchdowns to start a season without a single interception - a record he now shares with Milt Plum of the 1960 Browns.  His 16 TD passes are also an NFL record for the first four games of a season.  With the victory over Philly, the Broncos have now won 15 regular season games in a row and there don't seem to be many viable candidates that are going to hand them their first loss. Right now, their toughest games over the next eight weeks figure to be road contests in Indianapolis, New England, and Kansas City.  My prediction is that they will be 10-0 heading into Foxboro.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Washington 24 - Oakland 14
The Washington Offensive Name for Native Americans finally got their first win of the season, but no one should think that all is well with the defending NFC East champions.  The first reason to be cautious about the future of Washington's season is that they beat the Raiders without Terrelle Pryor at quarterback.  It might have been impressive to beat Matt Flynn two years ago before he lost back-to-back battles to be a starting quarterback, but the bloom has come off his rose faster than hiring Edward Scissorhands as your personal gardener.  Secondly, we still didn't see great improvement from RGIII in his fourth start of the season.  He posted a Total QBR less than 50 for the fourth time, when he only had two such games in 2012. More maddening is he continued his early season trend of starting extremely slow in the first half.  Overall, his first half Total QBR is only 11.2, which is the second lowest figure among all qualifying quarterbacks.  Only Blaine Gabbert has a lower first half number.  I'm pretty sure that RGIII does not want his name associated with Gabbert's in any way, shape, or form.

San Diego 30 - Dallas 21
The calendar might flip to a new year, but the same old Cowboys show up year and after year.  They had a chance to take a two-game lead in the NFC East, but they blew the opportunity in a similar way as they have in years past.  They relied on the arm of Tony Romo too much and their defense made the Chargers look like the Chargers of three years ago.  I just don't understand why they only handed the ball 14 times to DeMarco Murray after he ran for nearly 180 yards the week prior.  It wasn't like they were struggling to run the football.  Murray averaged 5 yards per carry for crying out loud!  I know that they feel pressure to justify Romo's existence now more than ever, but they seem to be missing the flashing sign that's telling them they play better when they run the ball effectively.  The other puzzling piece is how horribly their defense played against Philip Rivers.  They allowed Rivers to complete a staggering 83.3% of his attempts and they only sacked him once.  Furthermore, the Cowboys defense didn't realize that they had stumbled into Antonio Gates Turn Back the Clock Day at Qualcomm Stadium.  Gates reached back to the days when he was one of the top tight ends in the business with 10 receptions (on 10 targets) for 136 yards and a touchdown.  It's games like Sunday's that provide further proof that the Cowboys will never win anything of significance under the current owner/head coach/quarterback regime.

New England 30 - Atlanta 23
If KC is one of the biggest overachievers at the quarter pole of the NFL season, then the Falcons have to be one of the biggest disappointments.  After a highly successful 2012 season that saw them a play or three away from a Super Bowl appearance, they find themselves staring at a three game deficit in the standings to the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints.  What is wrong with this version of the Falcons?  Statistically, they are basically the same offense that they were a year ago, which means they are a top ten offense primarily on the strength of their passing game.  The difference is that injuries to Roddy White and Steven Jackson have hurt their ability to score especially in the red zone.  On Sunday night, Atlanta converted just one of six opportunities inside the 20-yard line.  As a result, they are scoring about three points less per game in 2013.  It is a similar story on defense, where Atlanta is ranked in the bottom third of the league in total defense.  In 2012, they overcame their low ranking by being one of the stingier scoring defenses in the NFL.  Unfortunately, they are giving up about eight more points per game this year.  Part of their defensive woes can also be attributed to injuries as they have had to play without Kroy Biermann, Sean Witherspoon, and Asante Samuel for most of the last two weeks.  Luckily, slow starts across the NFC have left the door open for the Falcons to get back into playoff position.

New Orleans 38 - Miami 17
What a difference a year makes.  The Saints were a historically bad defense in 2012, but they are currently ranked as the sixth best defense after four games this year.  More importantly, they have cut their points allowed average by 50% from over 28 points last year to about 14 points so far in 2013.  This dramatic improvement have allowed the Saints to win a low-scoring slugfest against Tampa Bay in week two.  It is the reason why I believe that the Saint are right there with the Seattle Seahawks as the two best teams in the NFC.  It's great that they will be able to settle the debate on the field in week 13.