In several key areas, the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are like mirror images of each other. For example, the two teams are very similar on the defensive side of the ball, where the Fins are led by second-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, who coached under the Bengals’ defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer in 2009-2011. Both defenses feature tremendous defensive lines and athletic, playmaking linebackers, but Cincinnati’s defense comes into this game banged up with at least four contributors, including Leon Hall and Rey Maualuga, expected to miss the game with injury. In addition to the defensive similarities, both teams have an underachieving running game, which seems to have impacted Miami much more severely than the Bengals. The Dolphins are coming off their two best running performances of the season, but they still rank just 22nd in the league in rushing yards with 89.1 yards per game. Conversely, Cincinnati has run the ball poorly in recent weeks, but it has barely held them back due to Andy Dalton’s current hot streak throwing the football. One area where these two teams diverge dramatically is in their recent play, where the Dolphins are riding a four-game losing streak and the Bengals have won four games in a row. Miami’s poor play on the field is starting to seep into the locker room, so a fifth straight loss is liable to light the fuse on the simmering off-the-field issues. These Thursday Night games are hard to predict because of the short week of preparation, but my gut tells me that they generally favor the teams that are playing better at the time of the game. As a result, I like the Bengals to win this game and improve to 7-2 on the season. Here are three more reasons why Cincinnati will win this game.
Their quarterback is playing great football.
Dalton might be playing better than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last three weeks. Over this span, he has completed 66% of his attempts and has thrown 11 touchdowns, including a single-game high of five touchdowns this past week against the Jets. One reason for Dalton’s recent hot streak has been his improvement in throwing the ball down the field. In the last four weeks, all Bengals’ wins, he is 15-23 on targets that are at least 15 yards downfield. He was only 11-33 on similar deep targets in the first four games. According to Pro Football Focus, Dalton is the third most accurate quarterback on passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield and the only quarterback to not have thrown an interception on his deep targets. Another reason for his strong play recently has been the willingness to trust his other offensive options. In the first four games, Dalton targeted A.J. Green on nearly 34% of his attempts. However, during the current winning streak, he has reduced his targets to Green to 26%. The result has been a more dynamic offense featuring the tight end position and some of the other wide receivers. There is no better example of Dalton’s new approach than the 49-9 drubbing of the Jets this past week, where all five of his touchdown passes went to players not named A.J. Green. In contrast, the Dolphins’ Ryan Tannehill is struggling immensely over his last four starts. He has completed less than 55% of his attempts and has thrown the same number of interceptions as touchdowns. While some will defend Tannehill by pointing out the intense amount of pressure he has faced this year or the lackluster running game, I would argue that he deserves more than his fair share of the blame. Through 23 starts, he continues to exhibit a poor pocket presence that has led to him holding the football too long and often taking clean shots, which have resulted in five lost fumbles. In addition, I would argue that he has received more than enough support from the running game over the last four weeks. The Dolphins have run for over 100 yards three different times during this span and they are averaging 4.8 yards per carry during the losing streak.
Their defense will create more pressure than Miami’s.
Both of these teams feature high-quality defensive lines. While it wouldn’t be a stretch to argue that Miami’s front four is superior, the Cincinnati defensive front is going to have a greater impact on this game because they are facing an offense that has been susceptible to pressure all year long. The Dolphins offense is in the middle of the pack in terms of the percentage of dropbacks that Tannehill is under pressure, but they lead the league in sacks allowed and the percentage of times that the quarterback gets sacked when dealing with pressure. While there are a variety of reasons for the inability to protect the quarterback, two specific ones that jump out to me are Tannehill’s lack of pocket awareness and an underperforming offensive line. In an attempt to solidify their line, the Dolphins brought in Bryant McKinnie and benched Tyson Clabo, who had allowed eight sacks in six games at right tackle. Unfortunately, they will have to reinsert Clabo to the starting line-up because their normal starter, Jonathan Martin, will miss the game due to some of emotional issues that he is dealing with. I’m sure that Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are chomping at the bit to play against the newbie and the human turnstile (Clabo).
The fragile mental state of the Dolphins.
Miami is a team teetering on the brink of disaster. While it has plenty of issues to deal with on the field, where they have not won since September 22nd, they are facing some other problems that threaten to completely blow up their season. First of all, they are starting to experience some injury issues on an offense that cannot afford to lose anyone. They have already lost Brandon Gibson for the rest of the year and it is likely that they will play Thursday Night without the services of Dion Sims, a back-up tight end. The Gibson injury was particularly hurtful because he was just starting to develop a nice rapport with Ryan Tannehill. Secondly, the Dolphins are facing a mounting number of off-the-field distractions led by Martin’s abrupt departure from the team due to an apparent prank gone wrong and the recent serving of Mike Pouncey with a grand jury subpoena related to the Aaron Hernandez trial. Finally, there appears to be growing unrest between the players and the coaching staff. It started right away with Mike Wallace publicly expressing his frustration with his involvement in the offense after the opening game of the season. Apparently, he continues to vent privately. There was also the incident when Randy Starks, upset over being demoted, flipped his sideline the middle finger salute after registering a sack. Finally, there are several players, including Richie Incognito, who have openly questioned the approach of offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. In fact, the dislike of Sherman’s play-calling can be found throughout the Miami organization. Added to all of this unrest is the fact that the Dolphins are playing three days after blowing a 14-point halftime lead to New England in spectacular fashion. If Miami gets off to a slow start tonight, expect their fans and the game to turn on them quickly.
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