Quick Hits - Week Eight

Brief observations about every NFL game except for the Thursday Night game and the Seahawks game.

 

Detroit 31 – Dallas 30

Let’s start by stating the obvious: Megatron is the best wide receiver in the NFL.  There was a lot of talk this week about who was the better receiver, Megatron or Dez Bryant, but I think that Calvin Johnson settled the debate quite nicely with his 14 receptions (on 16 targets) and 329 yards receiving.  Johnson fell just eight yards shy of breaking the NFL record for receiving yards in a single game held by Flipper Anderson.  Nevertheless, he showed the entire repertoire in this one: turning short passes into long gains, making tough grabs in traffic, catching the long ball even when the defense looked like they had him covered, and generally making the Dallas secondary look silly.  The final indignity for the Dallas defense came seconds after Johnson’s final catch when Matthew Stafford pulled the okey-doke and scored the game-winning touchdown instead of spiking the football as everyone, including his own teammates, thought he was going to do.  I think we should name the play the “Detroit Hustle.”

 

Nevertheless, it is inexplicable how the Cowboys blew this game.  Since the Cowboys entered the NFL in 1960, teams have a .942 winning percentage with a +4 turnover margin in a game.  The Cowboys themselves were 44-1 in games where they had a +4 turnover margin before blowing this game in spectacular fashion.  Frankly, it was just the same old face plant that we have become accustomed to from the Cowboys.  Since the start of the 2010 season, the Cowboys have lost 11 times by three points or less, which is a number only surpassed by the Miami Dolphins for kicked-in-the-teeth losses.  I would argue that this loss is the worst one yet because Detroit had no business winning when they had approximately one minute to go the length of the field with no timeouts.  The biggest play of the drive was the 40-yard connection between Stafford and Kris Durham that was, simultaneously, one of the prettiest throws I have ever seen and a microcosm for how poorly Dallas played on the defense the entire game.  In a situation that called for playing prevent defense and keeping the ball in front of you, the Cowboys somehow allowed Durham to find a sizable hole along the sideline between the corner and the safety.  One of the major side effects of losing this game is that Dallas has allowed their NFC East rivals to stay in the thick of the division race.

 

Kansas City 23 – Cleveland 17

The NFL schedule is a 16-game grind and wins, no matter how ugly, are the most precious commodity in a bottom-line business, but is anyone in Kansas City the least bit worried about how they have played the last two weeks against back-to-back third string quarterbacks.  Through the first six weeks, the Chiefs were allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete less than 53% of their attempts for only 5.9 yards per attempt.  The six quarterbacks that they faced, which included Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Eli Manning, had a QB rating of 59.7.  In the last two games, Case Keenum and Jason Campbell have completed just a shade over 60% of their attempts for an astonishing 9.2 yards per attempt and a collective 107.5 QB rating.  The Chiefs won both games and they held both opponents to 17 points or less, but this pass defense is not going to work when they face Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers three times over the next five weeks.  Kansas City fans are obviously delirious over the team’s 8-0 start, but I’m sure that defensive players and coaches are looking at ways to shore up their pass defense ahead of their big AFC West clashes in November. 

 

New England 27 – Miami 17

Fans of the Patriots can thank the referees and the NFL rulebook for providing a major assist in helping their team win their fifth game of the season.  In the second quarter, the zebras called a very questionable pass interference penalty on Miami that ultimately led to New England’s first points instead of a punt.  On the surface, the Steven Gostkowski field goal was fairly innocuous, but it was the first positive event that occurred for the Patriots in the first half and ended up being their first step in coming from behind to win the game.  The bigger assist came from the rulebook, which intervened in the fourth quarter to save New England’s bacon.  On a second-and-seven from the Miami 23-yard line, Tom Brady was sacked and fumbled.  In the ensuing scramble to recover the football, a Miami player (inadvertently) knocked the ball towards the other end of the field.  The ball was ultimately recovered by New England at the Miami 45-yard line.  Instead of facing a third-and-29, the Patriots were given a first down because Miami was whistled for an illegal bat penalty and the drive ended in a Stevan Ridley touchdown.  The rulebook does not say anything about intent being a factor in calling the illegal bat penalty, so it turned out to be a good call even though many people will believe it is another example of the NFL looking out for the Patriots.  However, those same people should remember that last week the rulebook cost New England a victory, so it can giveth and taketh away.  In the end, the Dolphins made far too many mistakes (missed field goal, blocked field goal, three turnovers) to deserve to win the game.

 

New Orleans 35 – Buffalo 17

This game provided another example of the brilliance of Drew Brees.  He completed over three-fourths of his attempts on his way to throwing five touchdown passes in a game for an NFL-record eighth time.  In classic Brees fashion, he spread the ball around to 10 different targets, including two touchdowns apiece to Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints continued their improved play over last season by forcing three Thad Lewis turnovers and holding the Bills to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Brees and the improved play on defense are the two biggest reasons why the Saints are serious Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, especially if they find a way to secure home field advantage in the playoffs.

 

NY Giants 15 – Philadelphia 7

The biggest story to emerge from this putrid display of professional football is the tremendous quarterback quandary that Chip Kelly has on his hands.  After eight games, the Eagles have three quarterbacks on their roster and none of them appear to be the long-term answer.  The one that gives them the best chance to win this year is Michael Vick, but he has been able to start and finish only three games due to a balky hamstring.  The back-up, Nick Foles, showed promise in his first few appearances of 2013 before the Dallas defense exposed him for a fraud and then knocked him out of the game with a concussion.  His availability and effectiveness have to be in question going forward.  The final option, Matt Barkley, has been an absolute disaster in his two relief appearances this season.  He has seemed overwhelmed and befuddled by what opposing defenses are doing and can’t seem to apply even basic quarterbacking principles.  It begs the question as to why the Eagles drafted Barkley to begin with when Kelly would have never recruited a statuesque, drop-back quarterback like him to run his offense at Oregon.  There is a saying in football that when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none, but when you have played three quarterbacks it probably means you have the makings of a train wreck season.  After the Eagles finish 5-11 this year, they will definitely be in the market for a franchise quarterback in the 2014 draft.

 

San Francisco 42 – Jacksonville 10

The Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints might have better records, but there isn’t a team playing better football in the NFC, possibly the NFL, than the 49ers.  They have crushed five teams in a row by at least two scores using a formula that is heavy on the ground game with a little bit of Kaepernick throwing the football.  After averaging 101.6 yards rushing per game in their 1-2 start, the 49ers have run for 183.8 yards per game over their current five-game winning streak. During the same period, Kaepernick has only averaged 21 attempts per game, which is 10 less than what he averaged in the first three weeks.  By refocusing the offense on the running talents of Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Kaepernick, the 49ers have obviously played to a team strength, but it has also greatly reduced the number of mistakes they were making early in the season. After only forcing three turnovers in the first three weeks, San Francisco has forced 13 turnovers in the last five games allowing them to generate a +8 turnover margin.  Although they are extremely hot right now, their bye week comes at a good time following the trip to jolly olde England and ahead of two tough match-ups with NFC South powers (Week 10 – Carolina, Week 11 – @ New Orleans).

 

Cincinnati 49 – NY Jets 9

I didn’t expect the Jets to beat the Bengals, but I didn’t see the 40-point beat down coming either. With Baltimore off this week and Cleveland and Pittsburgh both losing, the Bengals took advantage of the opportunity to create space in the division and now sit on the verge of running away from their rivals.  They are in this position because of the outstanding quarterback play they are getting from Andy Dalton.  For the first time in his career, he threw for over 300 yards for a third consecutive game and, in the process, showed that the Bengals have more than just one threat on the outside.  He threw four touchdown passes to Marvin Jones, who became the first receiver since Randy Moss and Terrell Owens in 2007 to catch a quartet of scoring tosses.  Jones has caught touchdown passes in three straight games and might have surpassed Mohammad Sanu as the number two option behind A.J. Green.  For his part, Green caught two 50-yard plus passes proving that the Bengals do have a deep component to their passing game.  Right now, Cincinnati has developed into a nice sleeper pick in the AFC.  If they keep getting high quality play from Dalton and the defense stays consistent, then the Bengals are definitely a legitimate challenger for Kansas City and Denver.

 

Oakland 21 – Pittsburgh 18

What an odd game this was.  The Raiders got 93 yards on their first play from scrimmage and then proceeded to get 186 yards on their next 58 plays (3.2 yards per play).  The contrast in the previous sentence goes a long way to demonstrating where Oakland is at in its development. They have a quarterback, who possesses limitless potential, but is way too inconsistent on a down-by-down basis.  He will flash his athletic prowess like he did on his 93-yard touchdown run and then spend the rest of the game unable to throw the ball.  Obviously, Oakland is intrigued by his ability, but they are going to have to live through the inevitable ups and downs that will accompany his learning process.  If nothing else, Terrelle Pryor provides a level of excitement to a franchise that hasn’t had much to get excited about since going to the Super Bowl in 2002. Personally, I feel like Pryor can be the long-term answer at quarterback, but the Oakland brass has to build an offensive line that can protect him better and supply some improved offensive weapons. 

 

Denver 45 – Washington 21

The good news for Denver is they dispatched their visitors from the nation’s capital with a scoring outburst that was very Oregon Duck-like for its speed and ruthlessness.  The Team with the Offensive Nickname had a surprising 14-point lead early in the third quarter only to watch the Broncos reel off 38 unanswered points in the final 26 minutes to win going away.  However, there are a few offensive trends that appear to be going in the wrong direction for the Broncos.  One area that has been trending downward is Peyton Manning’s turnover numbers.  After having just one turnover in the first four games, Manning has nine total turnovers (6 interceptions, 3 fumbles) in the past four weeks.  Another area of concern is sacks allowed.  Denver protected Manning extremely well through the first six weeks of the season allowing only five sacks.  However, he has been sacked six times the last two games and the pummeling that he endured at the hands of the Indianapolis defense played a big part in the Colts’ upset victory.  The final area that is going the wrong direction is Denver’s third down conversion percentage.  The Broncos were downright robotic on third down in their first six games converting nearly 58% of their opportunities.  Their conversion percentage is down to 32.1% against Indy and Washington.  Obviously, Denver is one of the best teams in the NFL, but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor that will definitely be exposed when they face better teams.

 

Arizona 27 – Atlanta 13

I’m not sure if the result of this game is indicative of anything.  The Falcons are beat up and not very good and, frankly, they played that way against the Cardinals.  Atlanta scored the first points of the game and then proceeded to go scoreless for approximately 44 minutes in the middle of the game before a garbage time touchdown late in the fourth quarter.  Their best healthy offensive player, Tony Gonzalez, was effectively taken out of the game by an Arizona defense that didn’t have any fear of the rest of the Falcons’ playmakers.  It didn’t even help to get Steven Jackson back from injury as he was limited to six yards on 11 carries.  After a 2-5 start plus an extremely tough schedule, featuring Carolina (twice), Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco, the remainder of the season, the Falcons are playing for 2014.  On the other side, the Cardinals are a mediocre team led by a mediocre talent at quarterback that is good enough to beat the dregs of the NFL, but not good enough to beat anyone else consistently.  At 4-4, they are pretty much what I expected them to be and if they finish better than .500 I would be shocked.

 

Green Bay 44 – Minnesota 31

The final score makes it seem like this game was competitive, but the Packers were actually winning 41-17 late in the fourth quarter before the Vikings added two cheap touchdowns.  Green Bay dominated in nearly every category, including an astonishing time of possession advantage that was greater than 2-to-1.  Aaron Rodgers found little resistance from the Minnesota defense, which has been the trend over last eight games that he has played against the Purple People.  He is 7-1 over that stretch with 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing roughly three-quarters of his attempts.  In addition to Rodgers’ hyper-efficient outing, the Packers matched a season-high with 182 yards on the ground and received a 93-yard punt return from Micah Hyde. On the other side, the Vikings’ cesspool at quarterback continued to stink with yet another uninspiring effort from Christian Ponder.  The offense, led by Ponder, was so ineffective that they managed only three plays in the entire third quarter.  The Vikings, like the Browns and Eagles, have played three quarterbacks but have no long-term answer on their roster.  However, Minnesota has the inside position on those other two teams to get a possible number one pick in next year’s draft, which might yield Marcus Mariota or Teddy Bridgewater.