The Commish's Picks - Week 3

Commish's picks are in bold.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
I can guarantee that the Steelers are pissed off that they gave away the game in Chicago last week.  They are going to take out their frustration on the Bengals.  More importantly, the Steelers own the Bengals no matter where the game is played.  The Steelers have won five in a row and 11 out of 14 going back to 2002.  Even though the Bengals seem to be an improving team, I don't think they are ready to knock off the defending champs.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
I don't think the Lions are very good.  I also don't think that the Redskins are very good.  They struggled immensely with a Rams team that isn't much better than the Lions.  They only scored nine points and went 0-5 in the red zone.  The Rams game was in Landover, MD.  I think the Redskins struggle again, but this time they don't have the home field advantage to fall back on.  As a result, the masses in Detroit rejoice after the hometown team breaks their 19 game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
The Rams have only scored seven points through two games.  Their offense consists of Steven Jackson, Steven Jackson, and more Steven Jackson.  They have no weapons on the outside.  Their young defense has played okay at times, but I think the Packers have the offense to exploit the youth factor.  The Rams will get a much needed boost from returning home, but the Packers will have more than enough to take of business.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers are certainly starting to play the part of the 2009 sleeper team.  They have leaned on their stout defense and solid running game to start the season 2-0.  They have the 7th ranked defense in the NFL and they are allowing only 53 yards per game on the ground.  I think they are going to be challenged in an entirely new way by the dynamic running game of the Minnesota Vikings.  In addition, the Williams brothers will shut down the 49ers running game like the Cardinals did in week one, which will put the onus on Shaun Hill to win the game.  I don't believe he is capable of winning a game with his arm.  A huge day from Adrian Peterson and a multiple turnover day from Hill will send the 49ers to their first defeat of the season.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
The Patriots are in the danger zone.  How will they respond to their lackluster start to the 2009 season?  With so many veteran leaders gone, will they be able to overcome solely on the basis of Belichick's genius and Brady's talent?  I see three big issues why the Patriots will not respond like the New England teams of the past.  First of all, they can't protect Brady.  Their inability to create a pocket for Brady has led to the second isse, which is Brady doesn't look comfortable dropping back.  He looks a little gun shy.  Finally, their defense has lost so much of its identity that they don't really know who they are or what they are capable of being.  For all these reason, I like the Falcons.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
I like the team that has its back against the wall versus a team that has had smoke blown up the rear ends for the entire week.  The Jets are feeling pretty good about themselves, while the Titans know that another loss could signal the end of their season.  Jeff Fisher will make the necessary adjustments in the secondary to correct the issues that the Titans have experienced through the first two week.  I think that Mark Sanchez will finally get exposed as a rookie quarterback and the Titans will get their first win.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs are not very good.  I think the Eagles win this game with their hands tied behind their backs and blind-folded.  The home crowd and the season debut of Michael Vick will carry the Eagles to the win.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are mediocre on defense and their offense has looked slightly better against two defenses in the bottom half of the NFL.  The Bucs are 27th in the NFL in passing defense giving up 282 yards per game and a QB rating of 118.7.  Eli Manning will take advantage of Tampa Bay again and Brandon Jacobs and the running game will finish the job. 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are chomping at the bit to hit someone after what they considered to be a poor performance, on the road, in San Diego.  I think that the Ravens will take out all their frustration on the hapless Browns, who have only scored two touchdowns in their last eight games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
The Jaguars looked terrible in week two.  Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson must be salivating at the prospect of facing a defense that just allowed Kurt Warner to establish an NFL record for single-game accuracy.  In addition, I don't believe that the Jags have the offensive firepower to take advantage of a suspect Texans defense.  This game looks like the best chance for a blowout this week.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
I have a very simple reason why I like the Bears this week: injuries.  It is likely that Matt Hasselbeck, Lofa Tatupu, Josh Wilson, and Sean Locklear will not play this week.  In addition, we are already without Leroy Hill and Marcus Trufant.  Basically, I don't like Seneca Wallace against the Bears defense and I don't like the Hawks secondary against Jay Cutler.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Too much Drew Brees.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
I really don't like either of these teams.  Denver got extremely lucky to win in week one and they took advantage of a terrible Cleveland Browns team.  The fortunate part is that they get their third mediocre opponent in three weeks.  Oakland won't win this game because they can't score.  JaMarcus Russell is only completing 35% of this attempts, which is the definition of drive-killing behavior.  Russell will make enough mistakes to allow the Broncos to steal another victory.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
I'm going with the Chargers because I think they are angry about the first two weeks of the season.  They struggled to beat the Raiders in week one and they played well enough on offense to beat the Ravens but couldn't get it done.  I think they have learned their lessons from the first two weeks of the season and they will apply them against the Fins.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
I like the Colts because of Peyton Manning, who has become the number one assassin in the NFL.  I can't think of any quarterback I would rather give the ball to in the two-minute drill, then Peyton.  The Cardinals, like the Dolphins before them, will give Manning one too many chances with the football and will pay the price.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
I think that both of these teams are a mess, but Carolina is the bigger mess.  Tony Romo will make enough mistakes underneath the bright lights of Monday night to keep things close, but I still like the Cowboys.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 22-10