(1) I really believed that the San Francisco 49ers were the class of the otherwise weak NFC West. On paper, they had the best defense and the best running game. All they needed, it seemed, was for Alex Smith to do his best game manager impersonation and they were going to cruise to the division title. Unfortunately, all the hope and expectation has evaporated in the wake of San Francisco’s 0-3 start to the 2010 season. Outside of a close, hard-fought loss to the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday Night, the 49ers have generally looked more like the worst team in the division as opposed to the title favorites.
On opening day, the 49ers got blitzed by the Seahawks 31-6 despite dominating the ball for most of the first half. San Francisco made one mistake after another, which allowed Seattle to score 31 unanswered points and make a loud statement that the fight for a title was going to be a tough one. The Niners failed to convert on 15 of 16 third down opportunities, failed to score any touchdowns on three red zone opportunities, failed to protect the ball as they turned it over twice and failed to play disciplined football by committing eight penalties. The loss also exposed the fact that the 49ers had trouble making play calls in a timely manner, which contributed to their high penalty total and their general lack of execution. It is probably a bad sign when your offensive coordinator is described as disorganized and a slow play-caller. Nevertheless, the 49ers recovered to provide a stiff challenge to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. Alex Smith looked like a much more confident signal-caller in the friendly confines of Candlestick Park and San Francisco ran the football much more successfully. I thought the running game was the most encouraging sign from this game because it gave us a glimpse of what the 49ers were supposed to be this season. Frank Gore averaged 5.6 yards per carry, which took most of the pressure off of Smith and allowed Smith to flourish in the passing game. Actually, Smith gained so much confidence throughout the game that he led a wonderful drive, in the two-minute offense, to tie the score at 22 apiece with 1:19 remaining in the game. Unfortunately, the Niners left too much time on the clock and Drew Brees led a two-minute drive of his own resulting in a game-winning field goal by Garrett Hartley.
San Francisco felt as if they had taken a positive step forward with their performance against the Saints, but they were quickly brought back to earth with their god-awful game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week Three. The Chiefs racked up 457 total yards on their way to a 31-10 shellacking of the Niners. Their offense was generally horrific as they converted just 4-17 third down opportunities, averaged a paltry 2.9 yards per rush and allowed Smith to be sacked five times. If you take away Gore’s nine catches for 102 yards, Smith only completed 14 balls for 123 yards to his wide receivers and tight ends. The 49ers’ defense, which was believed to be their strength, allowed the Chiefs to rack up 207 yards rushing and averaged nearly 5.5 yards per carry. Kansas City owned this game from start to finish. I’m sure that diehard Frisco fans are going to try to blame the short week of preparation, the travel to Kansas City and the hostile environment, but I think we are seeing the reality that the 49ers had no business being the favorites to win the NFC West. I know that I was fooled. Alex Smith has looked nothing like the game manager that the 49ers needed him to be with five interceptions and an overall QB rating of 66.4. The running game led by Frank Gore has produced just 234 yards through three games with an average of less than 4 yards per carry. Overall, the offense has been unable to sustain drives due to six turnovers and a 24.4% on third down. In addition to the offensive woes, I believe that the 49ers defense has been exposed as being a little overrated. I think they have generally played okay, but they have had too many lapses that have allowed their opponents to seize control of each game. In Seattle, they were taken by surprise in the second half but their offense really didn’t do them any favors. Against New Orleans, the defense had their best effort but they allowed Drew Brees to drive the length of the field for the game-winning field goal when they desperately needed a stop. This week, against Kansas City, the San Francisco defense had no answers for the Chiefs offense.
Personally, I believe that the 49ers’ goose is cooked, which means that I my prediction for the NFC West was wrong. The Niners have already dug themselves a whole that only five teams have ever made it out of to make the playoffs and I have no confidence that they are going to be the sixth. First of all, they are going to fall to 0-4 after their Week 4 trip to the Dirty South. Secondly, Alex Smith is the definition of a first round flop and I don’t think he has the ability to be an effective game manager, much less an upper echelon NFL quarterback. Finally, I feel like the 49ers defense is quite ready to carry the load like the defenses of the 2006 Bears and 2000 Ravens. In the end, the Niners’ failures have opened the doors on the race for the NFC West wide open. As strange as it sounds, the Seattle Seahawks might very well be the favorites going forward.
(2) The greater New York City area has been blessed with a lot of great teams and great players. Every single professional sports team in the area has at least enjoyed one or two moments in the spotlight. In football, the New York Giants have had a lot more recent success on the strength of two Super Bowl victories under Bill Parcells, a Super Bowl appearance under Jim Fassel and another Super Bowl victory under Tom Coughlin. The most recent Super Bowl title seemed to announce the arrival of Eli Manning as an elite quarterback after being the Giants’ number one pick back in 2003. Unfortunately, Eli’s fortunes as well as the team’s seem to be going in the opposite direction. The Giants followed up their shining moment with a 12-4 season in 2008, which concluded with a resounding thud after a 23-11 loss to the Eagles in the Divisional Round. The trend continued to go in the wrong direction in 2009 when the Giants’ record fell to 8-8 and they missed the playoffs all together. Keep in mind, their 2009 season started with five straight victories until they were completely undressed on the Superdome turf by the subsequent World Champions. New York finished the season losing eight out of 11 games and looked very much like a team in disarray. The poor ending to last season seems to have carried forward to the beginning of this season. The Giants opened with a sloppy victory over the Carolina Panthers, but have played pretty poorly in consecutive bad losses to Indianapolis on the road and Tennessee at home. Specifically, I have seen evidence that the Giants have lost the identity that helped them win the Super Bowl just four seasons ago. During the highly successful 2007 and 2008 seasons, the Giants were built on a strong running game and an outstanding defense. The running game revolved around Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw, who helped the G-Men average 134.3 yards per game in 2007 and 157.4 yards per game in 2008. The defense was equally dominant led by their multi-talented defensive line. They racked up 95 sacks and held their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing per game over the two-year period. Since that high point, the Giants have run the ball less successfully and have had to rely more heavily on the right arm of Eli Manning. He responded with a career year in 2009, but the improved numbers didn’t translate to victories on the field. At the same time, the defense saw their sack numbers plummet to 32, their rushing yards allowed increase to 110 yards per game and their opponents’ QB rating skyrocket to 95.1. The trend is continuing in 2010 as the Giants’ opponents are averaging 136.7 rushing per game. I think this team needs to get back to the basics. They are not going to have success if Eli Manning regularly throws the ball 48 times like he did on Sunday. They are also going to continue having problems if they don’t clean up the penalties and the turnovers. New York committed 11 penalties and turned the ball over three times on Sunday, which was the biggest reason that they lost the game. After watching the Giants stumble through the first three weeks of the season, I’m wondering what possessed me to have picked them to win the NFC East. I’m not sure that they would win the Big East with the way they are playing right now.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets are taking the city by storm. They jumped into our consciousness last year with their run to the AFC Championship game and continued to own the headlines with their offseason transactions and appearance on HBO’s Hard Knocks. They had there own rocky start to the 2010 campaign, but they have scored two impressive wins in a row over AFC East divisional opponents to serve notice that there was a reason many thought they could be Super Bowl contenders. I’m most impressed by the recent performance from Mark Sanchez. The Sanchize was awful to begin the year against the Baltimore defense, but he has responded tremendously in the last two weeks. In their week two victory over the New England Patriots, Sanchez threw a career-high three touchdown passes on his way to posting a 124.3 QB rating. I was mainly surprised at how confident Sanchez appeared in the New England game after playing the opening game like a five-year old with a bad case of stage fright. He looked like a franchise quarterback. In an attempt to prove that his performance against the Patriots was not a fluke, Sanchez threw another three touchdown passes against Miami and posted a 120.5 QB rating. His first two touchdown passes were brilliantly executed and showed why the Jets and a lot of talent evaluators believed that he could be an elite quarterback in the NFL. In addition to Sanchez’s recent improvement, I’m encouraged that the Jets are still committed to the run. Instead of Shonn Greene, it has been LaDanian Tomlinson leading the way, but regardless the results have been impressive. Tomlinson has rushed for at least 60 yards in each game and the Jets are the ninth in the NFL with just over 130 yards rushing per game. I have been very impressed by the burst that Tomlinson has displayed through the first three weeks. If he was a baseball player, we would all be questioning whether he had ingested some performance enhancing drug. Finally, I think that Jets’ fans should be encouraged by the fact that their defense seems to be getting worse, but they are still winning games. They were very good against the Ravens and so-so against the Patriots, but the Fins shredded the Gang Green defense that was missing Darrelle Revis and Kris Jenkins. It has to be a comforting thought for all Jets supporters that their defense doesn’t have to play lights out for New York to win games. If the defense can hold their ground until Revis returns and the offense can continue to produce like they have over the last two weeks, then my prediction that the Jets will win the AFC East will look mighty good.
(3) I think it is time for the New Orleans Saints to start worrying about their lackadaisical start to the 2010 season. They sleepwalked through their rematch with the Minnesota Vikings and barely escaped with a 14-9 victory. Their trademark big play offense was missing for most of the game as Drew Brees had to settle for mostly short and intermediate completions. They were terrible on third down, which led to five punts in the game and general ineffectiveness. Most alarmingly, Garrett Hartley missed two field goals, which didn’t cost the Saints this particular game but foreshadowed future doom. In their second game against San Francisco, the Saints once again could not convert third down opportunities, which led to a lot more punts and another close finish. In addition to their third down woes, the Saints were also inconsistent in the red zone and couldn’t run the ball to save their lives. Apparently, the Saints did not do enough to clean up their sloppy play because it continued to plague them during their NFC South showdown with the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints were once again ineffective in the red zone and in their running game (16 carries for 43 yards). New Orleans improved their third down efficiency but the progress that they made in that area was completely counteracted by three costly turnovers. The Saints’ inability to be efficient on offense allowed the Falcons to stay in the game, control the clock and ultimately steal the victory. Everyone is blaming Garrett Hartley for his missed field goal in overtime, but the Saints need to look at all phases of their team before they heap all of the blame on Hartley. Their offense has been unimpressive all year long and their defense followed up two strong performances with a clunker against the Falcons. I still think they will be in the mix all year long, but the Falcons issued a stern warning that they are serious contenders for the NFC South crown.
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