Week Two Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Detroit’s 45-point win is the Lions’ largest since beating the Browns 59-14 in the 1957 NFL Championship Game.

Stat of the week No. 2: Donald Driver passed James Lofton for the most receiving yards in Packers’ history (9,666 yards).

Stat of the week No. 3: Tony Gonzalez has surpassed Terrell Owens for 5th most receptions in NFL history. With just 22 catches more, Gonzalez will have the 2nd most receptions in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tom Brady is the only player in NFL history to follow a 500-yard passing performance with a 400-yard game.

Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton is the first QB in history to throw for 400 yards in his first two games and only the sixth QB to have back-to-back 400-yard games.

Bonus Stat of the week: Since realignment in 2002, 29 of 32 teams have made the playoffs. The three teams that have not – Buffalo, Detroit & Houston – are each 2-0.

Brady's amazing start to the 2011 season and other NFL thoughts

(1) The New England Patriots have a 2-0 record this morning thanks primarily to having the best quarterback in the NFL calling the shots. Tom Brady followed up his 517-yard franchise record against the Miami Dolphins with a sparkling 423-yard game against San Diego, in which he only threw nine incompletions and was not intercepted. In the process, he became the first QB in NFL history to follow a 500-yard game with a 400-yard game. After two games, Brady is on pace to shatter the NFL records for yards and touchdown passes in a season. Even more impressive than Brady’s raw production has been his masterful control of the Patriots’ offense. No matter what formation the Patriots’ offense lined up in on Sunday, Brady found success dissecting the San Diego defense. When the Patriots lined up with two or more tight ends, Brady completed nearly 72% of his attempts and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. When New England went with three or more wide receivers, Brady did even better with an 88.9% completion rate and nearly 15 yards per attempt. In addition, he took advantage of the Chargers’ secondary, one of the top defenses against the deep ball in 2010, by completing 10-12 passes that traveled 11 yards or more. San Diego literally had no answers for Brady’s tremendous execution of the offense. The bright side is the Miami Dolphins are no longer the only members of the Tom Brady Torched Us Anonymous therapy group. The results from Sunday had to have looked pretty familiar to week one, when Brady was 10-17 on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air and threw for 416 yards out of the 2+ TE formation. Saying that Brady is in a zone is an insult to zones. Through the first two weeks, Brady is playing at a level that defies explanation. It is unrealistic to think that Brady is going to keep up his current pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez likely to miss the next couple of weeks, but he definitely adding another chapter to his already sterling career.

   Unfortunately, for the Patriots, they might need Brady to maintain his current production because their defense, especially against the pass, looks atrocious. In Week One, they allowed Chad Henne to throw for 416 yards and average 8.5 yards per attempt. For the purpose of comparison, Henne’s yards per attempt average would have been the second best average in the NFL for 2010. I think we can all agree that Henne is an average NFL quarterback at best. For goodness sake, the Dolphins were actively trying to trade for Kyle Orton before the season began, which is as big of an indictment of Henne as you can imagine. Keep in mind that the Dolphins threw for only 170 yards in week two against the Houston Texans. The same Texans team that was the worst pass defense in 2010. Following their awful debut, the New England defense allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 378 yards and average 9.5 yards per attempt. Rivers is obviously an MVP candidate, but you have to be concerned about a defense that is allowing 381 passing yards per game. Surprisingly, San Diego did all this damage without any production from Antonio Gates, who was held without a reception for the first time in 34 games. Rivers consistently found Vincent Jackson (10 receptions), Mike Tolbert (eight catches) and Ryan Mathews (seven catches) to extend drives and keep the pressure on the New England defense. Rivers’ ability to check-down to the running backs and take what the Patriots were giving him allowed the Chargers to convert on 83% of their third down opportunities. The saving grace for New England was the fact that they forced four San Diego turnovers. In addition, they stopped another Chargers’ drive at the one-yard line. San Diego was in Patriots’ territory all day long, but they made too many mistakes to fully capitalize on the porousness of the New England secondary. The Patriots better come up with some answers on defense soon because there will come a game when Brady struggles and the turnover pipeline dries up.

(2) Fans that support perennial losers are part of an informal fraternity, where the anguish is real, but the loyalty is seen as a badge of honor. The feelings that a Detroit Lions’ fan shares with a Buffalo Bills’ fan is a mixture of pain from being kicked in the guts for so long and pride for being able to get off the mat time after time. Long-suffering fans vacillate between a feeling of resignation that it will never be our year and a hopeful feeling that this year will finally bring success. The casual sports fan doesn’t understand why someone would continue to support a losing team year and year, but when the only thing that you know are the Detroit Lions or the Buffalo Bills then there is no other choice.

    In football terms, the Lions have defined another level of losing. They won four NFL championships prior to the Super Bowl era, but they have never even appeared in the Super Bowl. The closest they have ever come was their appearance in the 1991 NFC Championship game. After a fairly successful period in the 1990’s with six playoff appearances, the Lions have not returned to the post-season since 1999. They haven’t won more than seven games since 2000 and they lost all 16 games in 2008, which set a new NFL standard for ineptitude. Despite all of their recent struggles, the Lions were considered by many pundits to be a chic pick to make the playoffs in 2011. After two weeks, it looks like the Lions might just be for real. They beat Tampa Bay on the road to open the season behind 305 yards passing and three touchdowns from Matt Stafford. Any road win is huge in the NFL, but the Lions winning on the road is even more special considering that they once lost 27 consecutive games away from Ford Field. Following the opening win, Detroit completely destroyed the hapless Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener. Stafford had another excellent game and the Lions scored their largest regular season victory in their rather checkered history. The offense has certainly lived up to preseason expectations, but I’m even more impressed by how impressive their defense has played. The Lions forced six turnovers against the Chiefs and held them to only an 18% conversion rate on third down. They were equally impressive against the Buccaneers the week previous holding the Bucs to only 315 total yards and forcing two turnovers. They have defended the run unevenly over the first two weeks, but they definitely look like a unit that is improving and gaining confidence. Keep in mind that Ndamukong Suh hasn’t really got going yet and first round draft pick, Nick Fairley, hasn’t even seen the field. Detroit looks like it finally has the makings to reward their long-suffering fans with a playoff appearance.

(3) I hate to rub salt in the wound, but I have to point out that Matthew Hasselbeck looked awfully impressive against the big, bad Baltimore defense. Behind a stout effort from the Tennessee offensive line, Hasselbeck completed nearly 72% of his attempts on his way to throwing for over 350 yards. Last season, he didn’t throw for over 350 yards until a November 21st match-up against the New Orleans Saints. With one game to go, Hasselbeck has posted the third highest Total QB Rating (92.2) for week two and he has registered above a 90 on the traditional QB rating metric in each of the first two weeks. Amazingly, he has performed at a high level without any running game to speak of. In week one, the Titans averaged 3.3 yards per carry on only 13 rushing attempts. Things didn’t get much better against the Ravens as the Titans saw their average dip to 2.6 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Nevertheless, Hasselbeck is finding success because of the strength of the Titans’ offensive line and the relationship that he is developing with his mercurial wide receiver, Kenny Britt. After two weeks, all of Hasselbeck’s touchdown passes, 43% of his passing yards, 31% of his targets and 27% of completions have gone to Britt. If Tennessee can get Chris Johnson going, then they might have a set of triplets that is unmatched in the AFC South, especially if Arian Foster’s hamstring continues to be an issue. The key for the Titans will be keeping Hasselbeck and Britt healthy because they both have a recent history of injuries. If they can keep holding opponents without a sack like they did to Baltimore, then Matt’s health shouldn’t become an issue.

   Tennessee’s pleasure comes at the expense of every Seattle fan that has watched their offense look less effective than a blind man as an eyewitness. Fair or unfair, each Hasselbeck yard, completion and touchdown will be juxtaposed with the increasingly brutal style of offense being exhibited by the Tarvaris Jackson-led Seahawks. Every Seattle fan will say that it was a mistake to let Hasselbeck go even though they probably supported the decision when it was made. Heck, I was okay with the decision until I realized that Carroll & Schneider were going to hand the reins of the team to Jackson. If they were going to go to battle with a “bridge” quarterback, then Hasselbeck was the best option in my opinion. Honestly, I’m actually glad that Hasselbeck was able to move on to Tennessee. I think that his career would have definitely ended playing behind the sorry unit that Seattle pretends is an offensive line. As a result, I don’t think that Seattle’s early results would have been much different with Matt behind center. The Seahawks still can’t run the football or protect the quarterback, so they might have scored a few more points but they still would have been 0-2.

Week Two Picks

Here are my picks for week two (home teams in CAPS):

BILLS over Raiders
LIONS over Chiefs
Ravens over TITANS
Browns over COLTS
Buccaneers over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Bears
JETS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Cardinals
Packers over PANTHERS
Cowboys over 49ERS
BRONCOS over Bengals
Texans over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS over Chargers
Eagles over FALCONS
STEELERS over Seahawks
GIANTS over Rams

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 9-7

Week One Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Eight combined kick-return touchdowns in Week One are the most combined kick-return touchdowns in a single week in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 2: The Patriots-Dolphins game was the first game in NFL history to feature both a 500-yard passer and 400-yard passer.

Stat of the week No. 3: 7,842 net passing yards were the most for a single week in NFL history. 14 300-yard passers were the most in a single week in NFL history. Four 400-yard passers was also the most in a single week in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tedd Ginn Jr. is the first player to have a kickoff-return touchdown and punt-return touchdown in the same game on opening weekend.

Stat of the week No. 5: Ed Reed now has 12 games with at least two interceptions, the most by any player who began his career in the Super Bowl era.

Cam Newton's dazzling debut and other NFL thoughts

(1)              In most professions, if you get things wrong on a regular basis you better have your resume updated and your lucky interview suit pressed because you are going to need them pretty quickly.  Sadly, the lucky few that get to pontificate on the topic of professional football for a living don’t have anything in their job description that requires them to be correct.  The only thing that the talking heads have to do is sound extremely confident when they are making predictions that will ultimately prove to be wrong.  Week one of the NFL season provided yet another example of why no one should ever listen to the Todd McShays, Mel Kipers or Mike Mayocks of the world, when they say so-and-so is never going to amount to anything and this quarterback will be a franchise centerpiece while another quarterback will hold a clipboard his entire career.  Leading up to the start of the 2011 season, none of the guys mentioned above, or anyone else for that matter, believed that Cam Newton would be successful as a starting quarterback in his rookie year.  There were questions about the circumstances surrounding his transfer from Florida.  There were concerns about his itinerant college career that took him from Florida to Blinn Junior College to Auburn.  Obviously, the alleged pay-for-play scandal that erupted during the 2010 college season did nothing to allay the fears that NFL decision-makers had about Newton.  Making matters worse was the long NFL lockout that forced the cancellation of all the customary offseason training that rookies normally participate in.  Despite all of the negative attention, the Carolina Panthers made Newton the number one overall pick.  In the end, there seemed to be a growing sentiment that the Panthers named Newton the starter only to justify the fact that they picked him number one.  It almost seemed as if the media was waiting for Newton to fail, so that they could collectively scold the Panthers for making such a foolish decision.  The expectations were so low that just surviving his first NFL game would have probably been sufficient. 

Newton didn’t just survive; he blew the doors off of his debut.  He looked poised.  He looked prepared.  When things broke down, he didn’t fall back on his tremendous athletic ability.  He worked through his progressions and bought time when the situation called for it.  The net result was the greatest performance a rookie had ever had in his first NFL game.  In addition, Newton tied the NFL record (422 yards passing) for the most yards passing in a single game in a quarterback’s first season.  Newton flashed a little of his running ability, including bowling over the left side of the Arizona defense to score the first rushing touchdown of his career.  Newton was far from perfect and he benefitted from playing a mediocre defense, but he proved that he has the necessary physical and mental abilities to play the quarterback position at the highest level.  He posted the fifth-highest Total QB Rating and the eighth-highest QB rating of week one, which were both better than the likes of Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, Matt Schaub and others.  I’m sure that Newton enjoyed making a lot of people eat their words about him.  He has gone through a lot of change in a short amount of time, but I think that all of the adjustments have polished his leadership skills and preparation.  I think that the media tends to focus on a few aspects of a player’s background without ever considering that people can change or that there are other interesting things they can focus on.  For a guy like Cam Newton, all of the attention was on the alleged off-field indiscretions.  Rarely did anyone talk about the fact that he had led two different teams to national championships.  The guy might want to become an entertainer and an icon, but I believe he is building credibility with his teammates, which is far more important to him.  He will likely never match the rarified air of his debut for the rest of his rookie season, but he did a lot to start changing the narrative about Cam Newton.

(2)  As usual, the first week of the NFL season provided its share of surprises.  We saw the supposed Super Bowl contender, the Atlanta Falcons, get throttled by the Chicago Bears.  We saw the Kansas City Chiefs continue their uneven preseason with a beat down at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.  We saw Cam Newton and Steve Smith light up the desert sky against Arizona.  Out of all of these examples, the biggest surprise to me was Baltimore’s dominating performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Ravens had been waiting patiently for this opportunity ever since their season-ending loss to Pittsburgh in the 2010 playoffs.  If you remember, Baltimore held a 21-7 halftime lead in that game before losing the game behind a hail of second half turnovers.  The Ravens’ players didn’t want to dwell too much on the revenge angle, but you can bet that they relished their most lopsided win since the series began back in 1996. 

Baltimore controlled this game in nearly every way imaginable.  It all started with the way that the Ravens completed flummoxed their nemesis, Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben came into the game having won seven consecutive starts against Baltimore, but the Ravens were finally able to kill their personal boogeyman.  Led by Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, the Ravens forced Big Ben into five turnovers and sacked him four times.  Overall, they forced a franchise-record seven turnovers.  In addition to the defensive dominance, the Ravens did things on offense that the Steel Curtain hadn’t experienced in quite a while.  Baltimore generated more passing and rushing yards against the Steelers’ vaunted 3-4 base defense than Pittsburgh had allowed in any game during the 2010 season.  Most importantly, the Ravens found great success in the middle of the Steelers defense, which has normally been an unsuccessful tactic.  Last season, Pittsburgh didn’t allow more than 47 yards rushing up the middle in any game.  Baltimore turned the conventional logic on its head as Ray Rice and Ricky Williams combined to run for 88 yards on rushes straight into the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense.   The Ravens hit the Steelers right in the mouth and the Steelers had no response.  This game was supposed to be a knock-down, drag-out street brawl, but instead the Ravens started fast and cruised to an easy victory.  The huge victory clearly establishes Baltimore as the team to beat in the AFC North.  They looked like a team prepared to take control of their destiny.  As for the Steelers, you have to wonder what the heck was their mind state entering this game.  It is inconceivable to me that a team with this much veteran leadership, winning experience and coaching stability could lay such a gigantic egg in a huge divisional match-up.  Fortunately, the Steelers get a soft landing with the unimposing Seattle Seahawks heading to the Steel City in week two, but they have a lot of things to correct.

(3) The new season has already shown that the more things change, the more things stay the same.  Nowhere was this saying better demonstrated than the Sunday night game featuring the Jets vs. the Cowboys.  On the New York side of the ledger, it was another example of the Jets playing just well enough to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.  In the Rex Ryan era, the Jets seem to have a penchant for winning games “ugly”, which simultaneously highlights their inability to play consistent football for an entire game and their ability to make big plays at the most crucial moments.  On Sunday night, the Jets floundered for three quarters, generating only 10 points and 216 total yards.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter, they found themselves trailing by 14 points.  Without batting an eyelash, the Jets once again displayed their mental fortitude and, perhaps, their coaching superiority by scoring 17 unanswered points and sweeping the stunned Cowboys right out of the New Meadowlands.  They started the comeback with an 84-yard drive that culminated in Plaxico Burress’ first touchdown as a Jet.  Following this drive, New York took advantage of some of the worst blocking you will ever see by a punt team, which lead to a blocked punt touchdown return.  In the time it takes for a butterfly to flap its wings, the Jets had erased the 14-point deficit and had Dallas against the ropes.  During and after the lightning quick comeback, the Jets’ Mark Sanchez seemed to be locked in a game of who can lose this game first with Tony Romo.  Sanchez followed a Romo fumble with a fumble of his own.  During the next Jets drive, Sanchez could barely hit the side of a barn with his passes and then took a horrible sack as he held onto to the football for way too long.  This victory was far from pretty but it shows that the Jets have the right combination of moxie, talent and coaching to be contenders in the AFC.

On the other side, Dallas provided more evidence of why I can’t take them seriously as a contender in the NFC.  It seems that every year the media talks itself into the Cowboys being good enough to make a Super Bowl run.  All they have done since winning their last Super Bowl under Barry Switzer has been to flirt with success only to come crashing down to earth at the most inopportune times.  They were once again chic picks to make some noise in the NFC with the return of Romo from injury and the addition of Rob Ryan to handle defensive coordinator duties.  They were given a prime opportunity to start their 2011 campaign with a bang by beating the Jets under the white-hot lights of Sunday Night football.  They dominated the first three quarters of the game and held a 14-point lead with about 14 minutes left in the game.  Nevertheless, they limped away with another humiliating defeat thanks to a key special teams breakdown and one too many brain farts from their franchise quarterback.  The blocked punt that was returned for the tying touchdown was a new addition to the Cowboys’ “Finding Ways to Lose” handbook, but the mistakes from Romo had to have been all too familiar to Dallas fans.  Romo’s night started going south when he made an ill-advised dive for a touchdown, which resulted in a fumble and a recovery by the Jets.  The turnover was especially painful because the Cowboys were in position to score at least three points.  Later in the fourth, Romo threw one of the worst interceptions you will ever see.  Not only did he target the clearly limping Dez Bryant on the play, but he threw into bracket coverage with Darrelle Revis underneath the receiver and the safety over the top.  The interception return by Revis put the Jets in position to kick the game-winning field goal.  Unfortunately, the high-jinks from Romo were not done.  On the second-to-last play of the game, Romo seemed to be unprepared for a shotgun snap, which hit him in the torso and forced him to throw the ball away.  This final indignity was the cherry on top of disgustingly sour sundae for the Cowboys.  The worst part about it was that the loss represented the first time in the franchise’s history that Dallas had lost a game that they had led by 14 or more points in the fourth quarter.  Leave it up to Romo to make history in the wrong way.

Week One Picks

Here are my picks for week one (home teams in CAPS):

PACKERS over Saints
BROWNS over Bengals
BUCCANEERS over Lions
CHIEFS over Bills
Falcons over BEARS
Titans over JAGUARS
Eagles over RAMS
TEXANS over Colts
Steelers over RAVENS
CHARGERS over Vikings
Seahawks over 49ERS
REDSKINS over Giants
CARDINALS over Panthers
JETS over Cowboys
Patriots over DOLPHINS
Raiders over BRONCOS

Last Week: 0-0
Overall: 0-0

2011 NFL Predictions

AFC

AFC East - New England
AFC West - San Diego
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC South - Houston
Wild Card - NY Jets
Wild Card - Baltimore

AFC Champ - San Diego

NFC

NFC East - Philadelphia
NFC West - St. Louis
NFC North - Green Bay
NFC South - New Orleans
Wildcard - Atlanta
Wildcard - Detroit

NFC Champ - New Orleans

Super Bowl - New Orleans over San Diego