A case of deja vu in Denver and other NFL thoughts

(1) The City of Denver must have went to bed Sunday night with a collective feeling of ‘here we go again,’ as the Broncos have allowed a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AFC West go up in smoke. The Broncos were the darlings of the NFL after an undefeated start, but they have now lost three straight games and find themselves deadlocked with the San Diego Chargers. The losing streak wouldn’t be so concerning if the Broncos had not coughed up a huge division lead to the Chargers just last season. As if things were not bad enough in Denver, the Broncos have to find a way to right the ship with the Chargers coming to town on Sunday for a titanic division battle. The worst part of the entire situation is that they might have to do it without their starting quarterback after Kyle Orton left the game against the Washington Redskins with an injury.

In order for the Broncos to get back to playing like they were earlier in the season, they need to re-identify the formula that was working so well on defense and reapply it for the last seven games. During their early season success, the Broncos were giving up a miniscule 11 points per game, but they are giving up over 28 points per game during their current losing streak. It was no embarrassment to give up 30 points to the Ravens and 28 to the defending champs, but it has to leave you scratching your head when you give up 27 points to the Washington Redskins. It was the first time since week two of the 2008 season that the Redskins had scored more than 24 points. One of the big reasons that the Broncos played so well early on was that they played a suffocating brand of defense in the second half. From week three to week six, the Broncos did not allow a single third down conversion in the second half and they only allowed two second half conversions during their first six games. As a result of regularly getting off the field in third down situations, the Broncos did not allow more than seven points in any single game after halftime. In the last three weeks, it looks like the Denver defense is in a major slump. In the last three games, the Broncos have allowed their opponents to convert 15 out of 23 third down opportunities. Their inability to stop the other team in the second half has led to them allowing 24 points, 21 points and 13 points after halftime in the last three games. With the red hot San Diego Chargers coming to town on Sunday, it will be interesting to see what the Broncos coaching staff can come up with to turn the tide for their defensive unit.

Unfortunately, the defense isn’t the only area that has let down the team in the recent weeks. Kyle Orton, who was a big part of their initial success, has not played very well since the last time they faced the Chargers. Before playing great in the first half against the Redskins, Orton had played his two worst games of the season against the Ravens and the Steelers. In the Baltimore game, he was held to less than 200 yards passing and was not able to sustain drives against a fierce Ravens defense. In the Steelers game, Orton tossed three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown in the first half. The common denominator in both of those games was that the Ravens and the Steelers did not respect Orton’s ability to push the ball down the field. As a result, they both crowded the line of scrimmage, which allowed them stifle the Broncos’ running game and cause Orton to make mistakes in the passing game. It appeared that Denver made a conscious effort to break the mold in the Redskins game because they struck early with two long touchdown passes to Brandon Marshall. Unfortunately, Orton got hurt and all of the momentum that they had built up was washed away in a flood of bad passes from Chris Simms. The other area that has failed the Broncos has been their special teams unit. In the Ravens game, they gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half that carried the Ravens to the victory. In Sunday’s game, they allowed the Redskins to execute a fake punt even though Washington had tipped its hand before calling a timeout. The Skins came out of the break and lined up in the exact same formation but the Broncos punt return team did not catch on. If Washington had attempted the same trick play during the Broncos’ six game winning streak, I’m sure that Denver would have diagnosed the play and snuffed it out. Unfortunately, when things are not going right, boneheaded mistakes pile up like dirty laundry.

The only way that the Broncos will beat the Chargers and break their losing streak is if Kyle Orton is healthy and ready to play. They have absolutely no chance to win if Chris Simms starts at quarterback. In the end, I don’t think it will matter because I believe that the Chargers will come away with a close, hard-fought victory in the Mile High City. Just like last year, I think that the Chargers are the better team and the better team usually wins out over the long haul.

(2) There appears to have been a changing of the guard in the AFC North after the Cincinnati Bengals completed a season sweep of the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers. It was the first time since 1998 that the Bengals had beaten the Steelers twice in the same regular season. Not only did the Bengals beat the Steelers for the second time, but they swept the big, bad Baltimore Ravens as well and sit with a 5-0 divisional record for the first time in the history of the franchise. As a result of the sweep and the divisional record, the Bengals effectively hold a two-game advantage over Pittsburgh with seven games remaining. Barring a collapse, which would not be unusual for one of the most awful franchises in recent memory, the Bengals should win the division. This development means that the Steelers are left to play for wild card berth, which they all but conceded in their post-game comments.

The Bengals are a team that definitely merits a closer look. In order to put their current success in its proper perspective, we have to remember that Cincinnati is coming off a 4-11-1 campaign in 2008. More importantly, they have been the punch line of lots of jokes since their heyday in the 1980’s under Coach Sam Wyche. Their victory in Pittsburgh was even more impressive when you consider that they have only beaten the Steelers 13 times in 40 road trips to the confluence of the Monongahela, Ohio and Allegheny Rivers. No matter how you look at things, it is clear that this Bengals team is not your mother’s Bengals.

Their success in 2009 is directly related to the return of Carson Palmer from an injury-plagued 2008 season. Palmer may not completely replicate his best years, but I would argue that he is a smarter quarterback now than he was then. He has already saved the Bengals’ bacon on at least three or four occasions this season with clutch plays and he played very efficiently against the vaunted Steelers defense. Sunday might have been his worst statistical game of the season, but the thing that stands out to me was that he didn’t commit a turnover. As a result, he didn’t give Pittsburgh any short fields or any opportunities to turn an interception or fumble into points. Frankly, his performance was reminiscent of Peyton Manning’s “take what the defense gives you” game against the San Francisco 49ers. Like the 49ers, the Steelers were hell-bent against allowing a touchdown, so Palmer was more than happy to take the short and intermediate passes and allow Shayne Graham to kick field goals. Palmer’s approach became even more critical after the Bengals lost their top runner, Cedric Benson, early in the game and the Steelers basically knew that Cincinnati would be unable to run the ball. I think that Palmer’s mental development is the biggest reason why the Bengals have a great chance to win the AFC North.

The other significant reason that the Bengals are the clear-cut favorites in the AFC North is the improved play of their defense. They were extremely impressive in limiting the Pittsburgh Steelers to only four field goals. They dominated the line of scrimmage and made life a living hell for Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben was sacked four times and harassed all day long. He failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and posted his lowest quarterback rating of 2009 (51.5). The Bengals made things so difficult for the Steelers’ offense that I didn’t really feel that Pittsburgh ever had a shot to pull out the victory. The Bengals never had a big lead, but it always felt like they were in complete control because their defense was flying around and making plays. Keep in mind the Bengals were playing without one of their leaders, Keith Rivers, and still held the Steelers to only 226 yards of total offense. I really like this Bengals defense because of their linebackers and their two shutdown cornerbacks, Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. You cannot underestimate the impact of Hall and Joseph because their presence allows the Bengals defensive coaching staff to dial up pressure with confidence knowing that those two are protecting the back-end.

Ultimately, I believe that the Bengals will win the AFC North. If Cedric Benson does not miss a lot of time, then they will do it easily. Either way, it is their division to win because they have an extremely soft schedule down the stretch. They get a three-pack of cupcakes the next three weeks with Oakland on the road and Cleveland and Detroit at home. After that soft as Charmin stretch, they will play Minnesota followed by the New York Jets and Kansas City. If the Bengals don’t get to at least 11 wins with that schedule, then Coach Marvin Lewis should be shown the door.

(3) The NFL still has two undefeated teams, but the Saints and Colts were less than impressive in keeping their records unblemished. The Saints beat the lowly Lambs, but had to withstand a late drive from St. Louis that nearly led to the biggest upset of the day. The Saints are 9-0 for the first time in their history and they tied a franchise record for consecutive wins, but I would be more than a little concerned if I was Coach Sean Payton. First of all, they turned the ball three times against one of the worst teams in the league, which allowed St. Louis to keep things close throughout. I think that the turnover issue is the dirty little secret for New Orleans especially when it relates to Drew Brees. I think the national media has chosen to ignore Brees’ penchant for turnovers because the Saints are undefeated and one of the best stories of the 2009 season. Brees threw two more interceptions on Sunday and now has 13 total turnovers on the season. He has only played two games all season where he did not turn the ball over. Don’t get me wrong, I love Drew Brees but he has been a major part of the reason why the Saints have struggled to beat the Dolphins, Falcons, Panthers and Lambs recently. If Brees can stop giving the ball to the other team, I think that the Saints are nearly unstoppable on offense. Secondly, I would be concerned that my defense got taken behind the woodshed by the lowly Lambs’ offense. St. Louis is in the bottom third of the league in total offense, but still managed to rack up 434 yards of total offense, 23 first downs and over 32 minutes of ball possession. The Saints got run over by Steven Jackson (131 yards and one touchdown) and they allowed Marc Bulger to look like he had time traveled back to his prime. Overall, the Saints were extremely sloppy and won the game in spite of their performance. They need to get back in synch because it is not far-fetched to think that they could lose in Tampa next week.

The Colts didn’t play much better than the Saints, but managed to escape with a victory thanks to some late-game heroics from Peyton Manning and an idiotic coaching move from the genius himself, Bill Belichick. Let’s begin with why the Colts were down 17 points in the 4th quarter. I hate to do this but we need to lay the blame at the feet of the Colts’ defense. They had no answer for the Patriots’ offense the entire night. The Pats racked up 477 yards of offense, which included 375 yards passing from Tom Brady and 179 yards receiving from Randy Moss. The run-challenged Patriots even managed to rush for 114 yards against the formerly stingy Colts defense. I honestly thought that this game would be a close, low scoring game because both teams know each other so well and would find ways to keep each other off-balance. Instead, the Colts’ defense got torched early and forced their offense to play catch up. For most of the game, the Patriots looked like the 2007 version that scored at will and loved to bury their opponents. Brady was playing pitch and catch with Randy Moss, Wes Welker was killing the Colts in the middle of the field and the Pats even through in a run here and there to keep Indianapolis off balance. In my opinion, it was the most impressive that the Patriots have played this season. Unfortunately, their Rhodes Scholar coach decided to go for a fourth and two inside their own 30-yard line instead of punting the football and forcing the Colts to go the length of the field to win. Listen, I love aggressive coaching as much as the next guy, but it was reckless to not punt the ball in that situation. By not punting the ball, Belichick basically told his defense that he didn’t think they were good enough to stop Manning and the Colts from driving 80 yards for the game-winner. I think it was a bad message to send to his team. His players are all standing by their man like Tammy Wynette, but, in a private moment, I’m sure they would agree that Belichick’s decision was not very smart. In the end, Professor Bill’s blunder not only cost the Patriots the game, but it cost them the ability to catch the Colts for home field advantage. Hey Bill, I hear the weather is great in Indianapolis in mid-to-late January.

(4) Another team that is feeling less then 100% is the Chicago Bears after their face plant in San Francisco. They managed only six points while losing their fourth game in five weeks. They were unable to run the football once again (43 yards on 21 carries), they committed 10 penalties for 75 yards and they turned the ball over five times, including twice in the red zone. The most disturbing part of the entire debacle is that Jay Cutler was responsible for every single turnover. His disastrous performance by the San Francisco Bay equaled his horrific performance from opening night in Green Bay and continued a very unsatisfying first season in a Chicago Bears uniform. I don’t think Bears’ fans expected Cutler to throw 17 interceptions through the first nine games and have a passer rating lower than last year’s quarterback, Kyle Orton. Cutler has posted some gaudy passing numbers but he has done nothing to improve the Bears’ fortunes on the field. He was the first Bear player to have at least four interceptions in a game twice in a season since Billy Wade in 1962. It was also Cutler’s fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, which is tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. I can’t blame every single interception on Cutler, but a couple of the picks were terrible passes that should’ve never been thrown. In particular, he made several throws in the red zone that killed drives and prevented the Bears from scoring points. After Thursday, Cutler leads the NFL in red zone interceptions over the last two seasons by a wide margin. I will never doubt the strength of Cutler’s arm, but he plays the quarterback position recklessly and then has the nerve to blame others when things don’t work out. Successful quarterbacks are great leaders. Cutler will never truly be successful in the NFL until he realizes that he needs to lead by example and take responsibility when he makes mistakes. No matter what happens in Denver this season, I believe that they got the better end of this deal because they were able to clear their roster of an immature, petulant player in exchange for a team-oriented player. In the long run, I think that Jerry Angelo and the Bears front office will regret trading for Cutler and handing him a big-money contract. In my opinion, he is Jeff George reincarnated.

(5) November 15, 2009 was a sad day in Seattle as the Seahawks’ dreams of reaching the playoffs died a slow and inglorious death in the Arizona desert. The season is over folks. The loss to the Cardinals was another example of how far the Seahawks have fallen since reaching the Super Bowl following the 2005 season. The Super Bowl Seahawks were known for their ability to control the football and their efficiency in the red zone. The 2009 Hawks are extremely erratic on offense and have regularly struggled to score touchdowns. On Sunday, they played well in the first half but settled for a field goal late in the second quarter and were denied twice in the red zone in the second half. This performance followed an up-and-down game against the Lions, where the Hawks kicked way too many field goals. During the Super Bowl season, the Seahawks defense was the ideal complement to their ball-control, punishing offense. The defense would work to get off the field as fast as possible to give their offense another chance. This year’s defense has been pushed around by all of the good teams that they have faced and Sunday was no different. The Cardinals gained 462 total yards, which included Kurt Warner picking apart the Hawks with his trademark efficiency for 340 yards and two touchdowns. The difference in this game is that the Hawks gave up touchdowns easily in the second half while the Cardinals defense forced a field goal and a turnover in two Seattle trips into the red zone. Good teams score touchdowns and bad teams trip all over themselves when they get close to the end zone.

Even though the season is over, I took two positive things from the loss. The first positive is that the Hawks finally ran the ball with the effectiveness that we all expected when Greg Knapp and the zone blocking scheme was brought in. I don’t think it was a coincidence that the running game finally started to click when Julius Jones left the game with an injury. I have been screaming at the top of my lungs to allow the young guns a chance at being the feature back and it finally happened due to the injury. It would have been nice if the coaching staff would have realized it first however. Nevertheless, the rejuvenated running game produced 164 yards on only 24 carries (6.8 yards per carry). The highlight of the day was Justin Forsett picking up his first career 100-yard performance to go along with a touchdown run. Even Louis Rankin displayed a little wiggle with 24 yards on three carries and three catches out of the backfield. With the season lost, I believe the Hawks should commit to giving Forsett and Rankin the bulk of the carries to see if they can continue what they started in the desert. The other positive from the loss was that the Hawks offense did not give up and kept moving the ball up and down the field. The Hawks ran an astonishing 81 plays from scrimmage and actually outgained the Cardinals on the day (472 yards to 462 yards). They had more balance than they have had all season. In my opinion, it was their best offensive performance of the season. If they had executed better in the red zone, the result of this game could have been much different.

Unfortunately, the Hawks made way too many mistakes to win this game. They turned the ball over twice, which included the back-breaking interception by Adrian Wilson on an ill-advised shuffle pass inside the 10-yard line. They committed nine penalties for 113 yards. All of those penalties put the Hawks in long yardage situations on offense and gave the Cardinals short yardage situations or first downs on defense. It is a testament to the Cardinals that they won this game despite the fact that they actually had more penalties and more penalty yardage than the Hawks. They were only one for four in the red zone, while the Cardinals cashed in with touchdowns on three out of five opportunities. The name of the game is scoring touchdowns and the Hawks did not do a good enough job of punching the ball into the end zone. The Hawks got no pressure on the quarterback, while the Cardinals sacked Hasselbeck four times and generated enough pressure throughout the game to cause him to throw 26 incomplete passes. With no pressure on Warner, he dissected the Hawks for 29 completions out of 38 attempts. His 120.5 quarterback rating was double the passer rating from Hasselbeck.

The time has come for Hawks fans to look toward next season. Nevertheless, I think it is important to keep an eye on the team to see how they finish a season where they have nothing to play for but pride. Will they tune out Mora or will they play hard to the end? Otherwise, fans should start thinking about how this team gets better between now and the beginning of the 2010 season. We should still support the team, but we have to understand that we are heading for a 6-10 season at best. I still think that this team has some nice pieces to build with, but the front office and the coaching staff have to analyze the roster very closely to identify who will continue with the team and who gets replaced.