The Steelers blow an opportunity and other NFL thoughts

(1) It sure has been an unbelievable turn of events in Pittsburgh since they dominated the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. Last week, they effectively lost the AFC North title when they were handled by the Cincinnati Bengals. This week, they jeopardized their playoff position with a devastating overtime loss to the lowly Kansas City Chiefs. Even worse than losing to one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Steelers Nation had to hold its collective breath when the franchise, Ben Roethlisberger, went stumbling to the bench after taking an apparent knee to the head during overtime. The Steelers were not volunteering too much information after the game, but if it was indeed a concussion, then Big Ben will likely miss at least one game. With Pittsburgh’s struggles the last two weeks, it is an inopportune moment to lose your leader and quarterback for any period of time. Roethlisberger has been huge all season long and he played very well against the young Chiefs as well. Unfortunately, he was also part of the reason that the Steelers could not finish Kansas City during regulation.
On the positive side, Roethlisberger only misfired on 10 pass attempts and threw for 398 yards, which was the third highest passing performance of his career. He helped stake the Steelers to a 17-7 halftime lead with touchdown passes to Hines Ward and Heath Miller. Nevertheless, he made two bad throws that killed Pittsburgh’s growing momentum. The first bad throw came right out of halftime when the Steelers were looking to build on their strong finish to the first half and blow out the Chiefs. On a first and 10 from the Steelers’ 48-yard line, Big Ben attempted an ill-advised pass to Heath Miller down the middle of the field and was intercepted by some no-name Kansas City defender. Instead of picking up where they left off, the Steelers inadvertently gave the Chiefs an extra boost because Kansas City promptly marched down the field and scored their first offensive touchdown of the day. The second bad decision from Roethlisberger was even more painful than the first. Pittsburgh had taken the ball to the Kansas City 10-yard line and were poised to regain the momentum until Big Ben held the ball too long, was hit as he threw and let a fluttering duck go into the end zone that was intercepted by Kansas City and returned to the Pittsburgh eight-yard line. This interception also turned into points for the Chiefs as they kicked the tying field goal. As great as Big Ben has been this season and in his career, he does have a tendency to make bad decisions from time to time and hold onto to the ball way too long.

As I have said on numerous occasions, turnovers are the great equalizer. If an inferior team can force the better team to make mistakes, then they have an outstanding chance to win the game. The Chiefs were dominated in nearly every statistical category, but they won the all-important turnover battle, which led to their stunning upset. In addition to the two interceptions thrown by Roethlisberger, the Chiefs also forced a fumble by Mike Wallace after he had caught a 33-yard pass from Big Ben in the first quarter. It is likely that the Steelers would have scored at least three points on this possession, so we can reasonably say that Pittsburgh’s turnovers cost them at least six points. This is why a terrible team like Kansas City can win a game despite being outgained nearly two-to-one, allowing nearly 30 first downs (27 to be exact) and only possessing the football for just over 22 minutes. The other thing that really helped the Chiefs is that they returned the opening kickoff for a 97-yard touchdown. Pittsburgh has now allowed a return touchdown in eight straight games, which is an NFL record. In a straight-up football game, Kansas City would lose to the Steelers probably nine out of 10 times, if not more. In a game, where the Chiefs make all the big plays they beat the Steelers and knock their star quarterback out of the game.

(2) What a difference a week makes? Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals were the toast of the NFL after they vanquished their divisional rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, at Heinz Field. This week, they got caught in the glitch in the matrix, otherwise known as Oakland, and lost a heart-breaking game to the Raiders. In fact, it was the Bengals’ 10th loss in 10 trips to Oakland. The Bengals have to be ashamed of themselves for losing a game, where they were clearly the superior team. They should have learned from Philadelphia’s visit to the East Bay that Oakland is very capable of beating people in the Black Hole. Oakland, like Kansas City, is not very good, so they have to find ways to turn games into ugly slugfests. The Raiders achieved their goal against the Bengals by forcing four turnovers, including two from Carson Palmer and one that ultimately set-up the winning field goal. The Bengals did a lot of things correctly on Sunday, but their turnover problems led directly to them allowing a winnable game to get away from them.

The Bengals were better than the Raiders in nearly every statistical category. They out-gained Oakland by 75 yards, ran for 177 yards, converted 23 first downs and possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Cedric Benson’s substitute, Bernard Scott, ran for a career-high 116 yards on 21 carries, which seems to indicate that the Bengals are going to be just fine running the football without their top ball carrier. Palmer completed 14 of 22 passes for 207 yards and became the first Bengals quarterback to run for two touchdowns in a game since Jack Thompson in 1979. On the surface, it appeared to be another game where the Bengals were going to rely on smart decisions from Palmer, a dominating rushing attack and a suffocating effort from their defense. Unfortunately, their best laid plans began to unravel in the 2nd quarter when a Palmer fumble ended a Cincinnati drive at the Oakland 27-yard line. Things got even worse in the fourth quarter starting with a Jeremiah Johnson fumble that killed another scoring opportunity at the Oakland 15-yard line. As I said before, upsets happen when the lesser team can create mistakes and chaos. By forcing two fumbles in their own end, the Raiders did more than just get the ball back for their offense, they delivered a couple of debilitating blows to the Cincinnati psyche. The Bengals are not so accustomed to winning football games that they are able to reach back into their collective memories and find instances where they overcame sloppiness and turnovers to emerge victorious. The Raiders were planting seeds of doubt in the minds of the Bengals. Instead of finding a way to win, the Bengals reverted back to their dismal teams of years past and found a way to lose. After the Raiders had tied the score at 17-17 with less than a minute to play, the Bengals fumbled away the ensuing kickoff, which allowed the Raiders to kick a game-winning field goal and score one of the biggest upsets of the weekend.

It was pretty interesting that two teams from the AFC North, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, lost in the exact same fashion. The AFC North teams dominated statistically, but their turnovers and special teams mistakes doomed them both. I still believe that Cincinnati will win the division, but Pittsburgh is in a little bit of trouble because they have lost their back-up quarterback for six weeks and they have injury concerns with their starter as well.
(3) Don’t look now, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly moved into playoff position on the strength of their first three-game winning streak in nearly two years. They ruined Perry Fewell’s debut as an NFL coach and Terrell Owens’ biggest day in upstate New York with a heart-stopping, last-second victory. David Garrard struggled for most of the day, but put together a memorable fourth quarter that ended with a game-winning touchdown drive. Garrard had only three game-winning drives in 58 career starts prior to week 10 and now has two such drives in the last two weeks alone. He nearly had a perfect fourth quarter completing eight of nine attempts for 113 yards, which included the game-winning connection with Mike Sims-Walker inside of a minute. Garrard has been up and down all season long, but he seems to be playing with a newfound confidence in recent weeks. He hasn’t made all the plays, but he has made the big plays to get Jacksonville into playoff contention.

In addition to Garrard’s stellar final quarter, the Jags won this game because their defense never gave in to the Buffalo Bills. Outside of a fluky 98-yard touchdown reception that they gave up to Terrell Owens, the Jags only allowed 245 yards and three measly field goals in 11 possessions. They forced three Buffalo turnovers and applied enough pressure on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to make him a little nervous in the pocket. Even on the big play to Owens, the Jaguars had a defender in the face of Fitzpatrick, who barely got the ball away. In addition, Jacksonville did an outstanding job in the red zone (zero touchdowns in three opportunities for Buffalo) and a solid job in third down situations (3-11 and only 14 first downs total). Their solid defensive effort helped their offense control the ball for over 36 minutes of the game, which ultimately wore down a very game Bills defense. It was clear to me that fatigue started to set in for Buffalo early in the fourth quarter after Jacksonville drove 65 yards on seven plays before fumbling the ball away. The Buffalo offense promptly went three-and-out, which set the stage for Garrard’s game-winning heroics. Ultimately, Jacksonville ran 40 plays in the second half compared to only 18 plays for the Buffalo offense. The Bills simply didn’t have anything left when the Jags started their final drive.

The Jaguars are in their current position because they have been a fairly stingy defense and a ball-possessing offense over the last three games. On defense, they have been very stout in the red zone allowing only three touchdowns in 10 overall opportunities inside their own 20-yard line. Some people think that red zone defense statistics are overblown, but I believe they tell a lot about how a defense performs in pressure situations. In my opinion, really bad defenses not only cannot stop their opponents in the middle of the field but they wilt as their opponents get closer to the end zone. A decent to good defense may get victimized between the 20’s, but they have enough savvy to crank up the intensity when their opponent gets into scoring range. I also think that a good red zone defense reduces the pressure placed on their offense to score points. If the defense can hold the opposing offense to three points or less, then their offense doesn’t feel like it has to engage in a shootout to win. The other reason that the Jags are winning recently is that they are controlling the time of possession by running the ball effectively and converting third down opportunities. They have averaged nearly 140 yards rushing on four yards per carry during their current winning streak. In addition, they have converted nearly 57% of their third down opportunities. Both of these statistics are big reasons why the Jags have dominated the time of possession battle against the Chiefs, Jets and Bills with nearly 35 minutes per game. The Jags’ defense has played great against the run and on third down as well. Their opponents have only averaged 74.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. In addition, in their last three games, Jacksonville is only allowing a third down conversion rate of 37.8%.

The Jags have certainly taken advantage of a soft stretch in their schedule, but things get considerably more difficult in the coming weeks. If they can beat the 49ers on the road this week, then they will be on solid footing heading into a formidable four game stretch that includes the Texans (home), Dolphins (home), Colts (home) and Patriots (road). If the Jags get by San Francisco, then I like their chances of winning three of their last five games and getting into the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

(4) I tuned in to watch a Cowboys-Redskins grudge match and a Cleveland-Detroit game broke out. It was extremely painful to watch the Cowboys and the Skins stumble and bumble their way through 60 minutes of football. The Cowboys didn’t score until late in the fourth quarter for the second consecutive week and they still managed to win the game. Tony Romo threw for only 158 yards, which is his lowest total ever in a victory, and didn’t complete any passes on third down. He seemed to be playing with an aching back, but I’m not going to let Romo get off that easy. For God’s sake, he didn’t complete a pass to a wide receiver until 13 seconds remained in the third quarter. If he was hurting that badly, he needed to take himself out of the game. Regardless, the Cowboys struggled to move the football all game long despite a balanced approach to play-calling and 153 yards rushing. Despite the gaudy rushing statistics, the Cowboys were unable to sustain drives because they couldn’t convert on third down. They only converted three out of 12 third or fourth down attempts. Their inability to move the ball consistently greatly limited their scoring opportunities. Prior to scoring the late touchdown, the Cowboys missed a field goal and fumbled the ball inside the Skins’ 15-yard line to halt their only other promising drive. In every imaginable way, the Cowboys played a terrible game and now they have to regroup, on a short week, to face the Raiders on Turkey Day. If things go according to plan, Romo will look fabulous against an overmatched opponent and all will be swell in Big D. If things don’t go well on Thanksgiving, then I believe that the vultures will start to circle over the corpse formerly known as Wade Phillips.

Meanwhile, a full-fledged shootout happened at Ford Field between two teams that have done nothing but lose for the last decade. The Detroit Lions edged the Cleveland Browns 38-37 in one of the most exciting games of 2009. The lead-up to this game was filled with jokes as the pundits wondered aloud who would be watching this game, but it turned into the most entertaining game of the weekend. The Browns entered the game averaging only 8.6 points per game, but scored more points in the first quarter (24 points) than they had scored in any game all season. The Browns set season highs in nearly every category and looked like a completely different team from the one that was shutout by the Baltimore Ravens less than a week ago. Cleveland, who has lost five in a row, recorded four offensive touchdowns after scoring five offensive touchdowns in their previous 15 games combined. More incredibly, Brady Quinn threw four touchdown passes, which eclipsed his career total of three touchdown passes. Not to be outdone, the Lions rang up 473 total yards, which included rookie Matthew Stafford going absolutely bananas with 422 yards passing and five touchdowns. The Lions won this game despite trailing 24-3 in the first quarter. Detroit needed a silly pass interference penalty on the Browns’ Hank Poteat to set up a chaotic winning play from the one-yard line with no time remaining on the clock. It looked like Stafford would miss the final play after getting knocked out on the Hail Mary, but another poor choice by Eric Mangini allowed Stafford to elude the training staff and run one more play. Stafford was able to overcome the intense pain of having his shoulder knocked out of socket to complete a short pass to fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew for the game-winner. Stafford’s injury is severe enough that he will likely miss the Lions’ annual Turkey Day game. This game gives us another reason to not judge a book by its cover.

(5) There are only two words to describe the effort that the Seattle Seahawks gave in losing to the Minnesota Vikings 35-9: complete embarrassment. The Hawks were dominated in every single phase of the game. On offense, they only ran a measly 44 plays the entire game after running over 80 plays in their loss to Arizona just last week. As a result, the Hawks held the ball for less than 18 minutes. They couldn’t run the ball again after seemingly having a breakthrough against the Cardinals. Amazingly, they set a new low for rushing yards in a game with only four yards the entire game. The worst part is that they had just established a franchise record for the worst rushing game a couple of weeks ago against Arizona. The Hawks were so putrid on offense that they didn’t even cross the 50-yard line until late in the third quarter when they were already trailing 28-0. They turned the ball over twice and only converted one out of 10 third down opportunities. The ultimate indignity for a team that struggled to move the ball all day long was that they committed 10 back-breaking penalties for a total of 64 yards lost. If you are already pissing the day away, it is probably not a good idea to put yourself into a bigger hole with penalties. The Hawks even tried to break out a few plays for Seneca Wallace, which worked about as well as the Balloon Boy’s father’s attempt to land a reality television show. By the way, whoever decided to nickname the Seneca package the “Senecat” needs to put it back where they found it. Until something actually starts working, you are not allowed to give a cute little name. The Hawks need to fix their normal offense before they start adding wrinkles to the mix.

The only thing worse than the Hawks offense was their defense. The Hawks were so bad on defense that the Vikings didn’t feel like they needed to play Brett Favre more than 2.5 quarters. Even Matt Hasselbeck thought it was embarrassing to see old number four standing on the sideline with a ball cap on midway through the third quarter. The Hawks were so defense-less that terrible Tarvaris Jackson even threw a touchdown pass after replacing Favre. I think that Marcus Trufant is still icing his ass from falling down on Jackson’s touchdown connection with Sidney Rice. Overall, the Hawks gave up an astounding 28 first downs, which meant that Hawks’ fans had to endure at least 28 horn blowing sounds from the Metrodome P.A. system. The only team tradition that is more annoying than the Viking horn is the stupid song that the USC band plays 9,000 times per game. The Hawks gave up 431 total yards, including 213 yards passing from Favre and 160 yards rushing from the dynamic duo of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. In reality, the Hawks did an okay job against Peterson, but they must have let their guard down when Taylor entered the game because he gashed them repeatedly. Ultimately, this game belonged to Favre, who established a career best in completion percentage for a single game after completing 88% of his throws against the hapless Hawks. In addition, Favre established a new NFL record with his 22nd career game with four or more touchdown passes. The Hawks actually generated a little pressure from time to time, but Favre performed a few of his trademark Houdini escapes and killed the Hawks with the extra time in the pocket. The whole game kind of reminded me of the 2007 playoff game in the snow in Lambeau Field, where Favre played like it was 80 degrees and sunny and the Hawks played like a bunch of five year olds ice skating for the first time.

In the end, the Vikings won for the 14th time in 16 games and further proved that they are one of the best teams in the entire NFL. On the flip side, the Hawks lost for the 19th time in 26 games and appear to be headed for a 4-12 season. I would be more encouraged if the Hawks actually put up a fight against the Vikings instead of rolling over like a Cocker Spaniel. This week’s game against the lowly Rams will show if the Hawks are still mentally in the game because, even in their distressed state, they are still head and shoulders above St. Louis. If they manage to lose to the Rams, then Paul Allen and Todd Leiwicke might have to seriously contemplate changes at General Manager and Head Coach.