The Colts and Titans face-off on Thursday night with new questions swirling about how each team will react to the serious setback they each suffered this past Sunday. On one hand, the Colts are trying to recover from the second-worst loss of the Andrew Luck era, which saw them get completely destroyed by the St. Louis Rams 38-8. The two most disturbing aspects of the loss were the terrible performance by Luck and the fact that they lost so horrifically in front of the home fans. Luck turned the ball over four times and was one of the chief reasons behind the Colts’ 0-5 performance in the red zone. On the other side, the Titans face a must-win situation this week because their once promising season has been completely undermined by two significant injuries to their starting quarterback. The unfortunate part is that they have to turn their season around behind the right arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick after losing Jake Locker for the rest of the year to a foot injury. With both teams facing some serious adversity, it should make for a spirited and hard fought football game. In addition, I’m guessing that both teams are looking forward to playing the first game of Week 11 in order to stop answering questions about the face plants they both suffered the week prior. While I’m expecting a competitive game, it feels like the Colts have two significant advantages playing in their favor: (1) they have the better starting quarterback and (2) they should have more motivation to seize the opportunity to put a stranglehold on the AFC South. As a result, I’m picking Indianapolis to right the ship and win the game. Here are three more reasons why I like the Colts.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at quarterback for the Titans.
If you didn’t already know, I don’t trust Fitzpatrick to be a competent NFL quarterback. Actually, I don’t trust him to do much of anything. There is a reason why the Buffalo Bills dumped him after last season after giving him an extended opportunity to be their quarterback of the future. The biggest reason is that he is turnover-prone, which led to more losses than the Bills were willing to stomach. In fact, he has the third most turnovers (72) in the NFL since 2010. Looking back on just his last eight starts (two in 2013 and six in 2012), Fitzpatrick’s teams are only 2-6 and he has turned the ball over 12 times during that stretch. In addition, he has demonstrated two additional traits during this eight-game stretch that are career killers for NFL signal-callers: inaccuracy (56.3% completion rate) and the inability to push the ball down the field (6.5 yards per attempt). While his final numbers looked pretty good last week in relief of Locker, he still turned the ball at a critical juncture of the game, which turned into the decisive score to cement the Jaguars’ first win of the season. I’m expecting a salty performance from the Indianapolis defense in an attempt to erase the memories of what another back-up quarterback, Kellen Clemens, did to them last week. As a result, you can count on at least two turnovers from Fitzpatrick that will help swing the game in Indy’s favor.
No one circles the wagons better than the Colts with Andrew Luck.
While I would admit that the above statement contains more than its share of hyperbole, I would argue that there is definitely a trend developing with the Colts responding very well the week after a loss. In fact, Indianapolis is 7-0 following a loss since Luck took over as the starting quarterback at the beginning of last season. In the Luck era, they have lost games by 35 points, 26 points, and 20 points and bounced back the following week with a victory, so I don’t see it being too difficult to shake off the 30-point beat down they suffered at the hands of the Rams. The key to their unblemished record has been the near 180 degree shift in Andrew Luck’s level of play. In the eight losses, Luck has turned the ball over 18 times and has produced a 41.7 average in Total QBR. However, in the seven games following a loss, Luck has 13 total touchdowns and only three turnovers. In addition, he has generated a 71.3 average in Total QBR. The numbers seem to indicate that Luck does an outstanding job of refocusing after a poor performance and, subsequently, plays a much smarter brand of football the next time out. I’m expecting Luck to shake off the atrocious, four-turnover performance last week just like he shook off a four-turnover performance last season, in a 35-point loss to New England, and lead the Colts to their seventh victory of the season.
Pep Hamilton will restore balance to the Indianapolis offense.
While it is probably a bit of a stretch to call Hamilton a product of the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree, since he only spent one season under Harbaugh at Stanford, it would be fair to say that he has been greatly influenced by his time spent on The Farm. Hamilton wants his offense to be physical. He wants to lead with the running game, which, if successful, should facilitate a strong play-action passing attack. Ultimately, he wants a balanced offense, which is very different than the pass happy offense that the Colts operated under Bruce Arians. Unfortunately, there have been times this season, most notably in their losses, where the offensive balance has been less than ideal. In the Colts’ three losses, they have passed the ball on 67.2% of their plays. Obviously, the circumstances of each game could have dictated a greater focus on the aerial attack, but the losses to Miami and San Diego were never so far out of reach that the running game should have been sacrificed. It feels like there were times when Hamilton would start to call plays that put the ball in the hands of his great, young quarterback rather than calling plays that fit his offensive philosophy or some pre-defined pass-run ratio. Nevertheless, I feel like it is very instructive to see how Hamilton adjusted his play calling in the games following a loss. While the sample is extremely small, the Colts have run the football 52.6% of the time in the two games they have played following a loss with Hamilton as the offensive coordinator. After the disastrous effort last week, I feel like Hamilton is going to find ways to emphasize the run in order to take some of the pressure off of Luck and potentially exploit one of the areas where the Tennessee defense is vulnerable. The balanced approach might lead to a more conservative offense, but the Colts don’t need to score more than 20 points to beat the Titans. This outcome of this game will hinge on the number of mistakes each team makes and I’m betting that Hamilton’s game plan ensures that the Colts make fewer errors.
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