It is unfortunate that the Atlanta Falcons are mired in such a disappointing season because it has taken most of the spice out of their Thursday night showdown with the New Orleans Saints. Although the Saints have a 12-3 record versus the Falcons since Drew Brees took over at quarterback, this match-up has been one of the more entertaining and competitive rivalries in the NFL with seven of the last nine meetings being settled by eight points or less. In their previous encounter this season, the Saints had to survive a final Falcons’ drive that ended on downs deep in New Orleans territory. At the time, there was no indication that Atlanta’s season would go completely off the rails as most observers assumed that the extremely competitive game meant that these two teams would once again battle one another for the NFC South title. However, that was before the Falcons lost Julio Jones to a season-ending foot injury and several other key performers on both sides of the ball went down with a myriad of short- and long-term injuries. The result has been the most losses in a single season under Mike Smith and a virtually guaranteed losing record unless the Falcons can win their final six games. On the other side of the field, the Saints are in the middle of an amazing reversal of fortune from their 2012 season. They lost their first four games of last season on their way to finishing the year 7-9. The poor results were directly related to the Bounty-gate related sanctions, most importantly the yearlong banishment of head coach Sean Payton, and the play of a historically bad defense. This year, Payton returned to the sideline and brought in Rob Ryan to lead the defense. Payton has kept the offense running at a high-level and Ryan has overseen a dramatic change to the defense, which is allowing 135 total yards and 10 points less per game than the 2012 unit. Ultimately, the Saints are where the Falcons expected to be: leading the division and still in the running for the NFC’s top seed. While the general NFL fan would love to see another down-to-the-wire, competitive game, this game is a classic “two teams heading in different directions” match-up and neither the short week nor the Falcons’ home field advantage should impact the expected New Orleans victory. As a result, I’m picking the Saints to win fairly easily and set up an enormous Monday Nightshowdown with the Seattle Seahawks on December 2nd. Here are three more reasons why I like New Orleans to add insult to injury to the Falcons.
Pressure, pressure, pressure from the Saints
As a result of the introduction of Rob Ryan’s attacking, 3-4 defense, the Saints have the fifth highest sack total in the NFL and have generated a great deal of pressure on opposing offenses. The pass rush is led by Jordan Cameron and Junior Gallette, who both rank highly in pass rush productivity according to Pro Football Focus. Although they haven’t been nearly as productive away from the Superdome, the Saints get to unleash their pressure packages against an offense that allows pressure on over 40% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks. While I don’t expect the Saints to have any trouble creating pressure, the key to this game will be their ability to turn the pressure into sacks and mistakes by Ryan, whether they come in the form of turnovers or bad decisions. Getting Ryan on the ground will be important because the Falcons have the second lowest sack percentage in the NFL despite having the ninth highest pressure percentage. This discrepancy tells me that Ryan’s veteran savvy and quick decision-making is bailing out his atrocious offensive line. Regardless of the Saints’ final sack total, they cannot allow Ryan to become comfortable in the pocket because he is a completely different quarterback when he is under pressure versus not under pressure. So far this season, he has a completion percentage that is 22 points higher and a QB rating that is 43 points higher when he doesn’t face pressure. Obviously, the Saints are aware of Ryan’s struggles this season, so expect them to bring the heat early and often in an attempt to force turnovers and quick throws.
Falcons won’t be able to exploit the Saints’ defensive weaknesses
The Saints defense has struggled in two key areas this season: (1) red zone efficiency (allowed TDs on 60% of opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line) and (2) run defense, especially on the road. Unfortunately, for the Falcons, their atrocious running game isn’t capable of consistently making the Saints defense pay for their occasional lapses in run defense. Atlanta finds itself ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing yards per game and has generated more than 88 yards in just two ballgames this season. With the running game continuing to struggle, the Falcons will have to resort to a pass-heavy game plan that will expose Ryan to the devious blitz and pressure packages that the Saints are sure to unleash. It will just continue a season-long trend of Matt Ryan’s right arm being the best chance that Atlanta has to be competitive. He has already had seven games where he has attempted 38 or more passes, which equals the number that he had for the entire 2012 season. The inability to balance the offense will keep the Falcons’ from sustaining drives, which means they won’t have a lot of red zone opportunities. If they can’t get into the scoring zone, then they won’t really be able to take full advantage of the Saints’ vulnerabilities in that area of the field. Ultimately, the Saints defense won’t allow the Falcons to score enough to keep up with Drew Brees and New Orleans offense.
The Falcons defense is really bad
Last season, the Atlanta defense only allowed 18.7 points per game, which was one of the major reasons why they won 13 games and nearly advanced to the Super Bowl. This year, the Falcons are allowing 29.2 points per game and the next touchdown they allow will mean that they will have given up the same number of total points as they allowed in all of 2012. Their staggering decline in stopping their opponents from scoring is related to a 180 degree shift in their red zone defense and in the number of forced turnovers. In 2012, the Falcons allowed 19 red zone touchdowns the entire season, but they have already allowed 23 red zone touchdowns this year on six fewer opportunities, which has them ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive red zone efficiency. In terms of turnovers, Atlanta has only created eight turnovers in ten games (2nd lowest in the NFL) and has an NFL worst -11 turnover differential. This team is basically the same team that caused 31 turnovers last season, which helped drive a +13 turnover differential (both numbers were fifth highest in the league). I would be remiss not to mention that the Falcons have been without the services of several defensive stalwarts for parts of this year, but it would be careless to assume that they would have approached last year’s defensive performance had they just avoided the injuries. Now they get to face the number two offense in total yards and scoring, which is led by a top five quarterback and a game-changing tight end to go along with a bevy of complementary weapons that has to be keeping defensive coordinator Mike Nolan up at night. As a result, the Saints shouldn’t have any trouble putting up close to their scoring average, which should be more than enough to cruise to their ninth victory of the year.
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