Week Four Picks

Here are my picks for week four (home teams in CAPS):

BEARS over Panthers
Bills over BENGALS
BROWNS over Titans
Lions over COWBOYS
Vikings over CHIEFS
RAMS over Redskins
EAGLES over 49ers
Saints over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Steelers
Giants over CARDINALS
PACKERS over Broncos
RAIDERS over Patriots
CHARGERS over Dolphins
RAVENS over Jets
BUCCANEERS over Colts
SEAHAWKS over Falcons

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 32-16

Week Three Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Buffalo is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in which it trailed by at least 18 points.

Stat of the week No. 2: There have been 33 individual 300-yard passing games this season, which is the most through the first three weeks in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 3: Calvin Johnson is the first player in history to have at least two TD catches in each of his team’s first three games.

Stat of the week No. 4: Drew Brees is the fourth player in NFL history to throw TD pass in 30 consecutive games (Unitas – 47 games, Favre – 36 games, Marino – 30 games).

Stat of the week No. 5: In the past two weeks, Minnesota has been ahead at halftime by a combined score of 37-0 and lost both games.

Bonus stat of the week: The San Francisco 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since November 2009.

Texans are still pretenders and other NFL thoughts

(1)              It is commonly said that the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I would like to add another item: declaring the Houston Texans as serious contenders in the NFL.  For at least the last three or four years, the media has been obsessed with predicting that the Texans were ready to make their first playoff appearance and/or challenge the elite in the AFC South.  Although they have shown glimpses of promise, the Texans have finished outside of the postseason in every year of their existence.  This year, the door to the playoffs was kicked off the hinges thanks to the neck injury suffered by Peyton Manning, which forced the Indianapolis Colts to bring the ancient Kerry Collins out of retirement.  With the biggest difference-maker in the division on the shelf, the experts were convinced that there was no way that Houston wouldn’t win the AFC South.  The Texans still had a dynamic offense led by Matt Schaub and Arian Foster and they had addressed their biggest problem of 2010 by hiring Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator and signing Jonathan Joseph to a free-agent contract.  The changes paid dividends early as they crushed the Colts on opening day and handled the Dolphins in week two.  After two weeks, the Texans were actually the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL!  My computer nearly shut itself down after I finished typing that sentence.  Even more impressive, Houston had won both games with nearly no contribution from their All-Pro running back.  The stars seemed to be finally aligning for the City of Houston to have a playoff team for the first time since Warren Moon’s last season in 1993.

I’m still confident that the Texans are going to win their first division title, but my vote of confidence is more about the relative weakness of their competition.  They have a retiree playing quarterback for one of their opponents and a rookie playing for another.  Their stiffest divisional opponent is probably the Titans, but they just lost their best receiver to a season-ending knee injury and their quarterback is one big hit away from the infirmary.  If the Texans can’t win this sad-sack division, then they might as well fold up the tents permanently on professional football in Houston.  A non-division title this year would be more embarrassing than giving up a 32-point third quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills back in 1992.  Unfortunately, I think that the Texans will have reached their ceiling if they do manage to earn a division title.  I still don’t believe that this team has the necessary chops to win a playoff game.  In order for me to change my mind, they need to win a big game or two, especially on the road.  I will give them credit for their huge season-opening win over the Colts last season, but they went into the tank for the rest of the year.  This year, they beat the Colts again, but with a guy, whose daily schedule a month ago consisted of 18 holes of golf and the early bird special, playing quarterback.  They also beat the Dolphins, but their quarterback is a back-up masquerading as a starter.  The Texans’ first real test of the 2011 season was playing the New Orleans Saints on the road.  In my opinion, they failed the test miserably.  Houston led the Saints 26-17 with 14:54 remaining in the fourth quarter and desperately needed to close the door on New Orleans to show that they were ready to make the next step.  Unfortunately, the Saints, led by Drew Brees, blitzed the Texans 23-7 down the stretch and pulled out the hard-fought victory.  I know that Brees is an elite quarterback in the NFL, but good teams don’t allow their opponents to score on three consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter on drives that lasted less than two minutes each.  Good teams find ways to grind out first downs in the fourth quarter instead of putting their gassed defense back on the field.  I don’t think that the Texans are a good team.  They are good enough to win a division title, but so were the Seattle Seahawks last year and no one thought they were a quality team.  The Texans have a brutal four-game stretch upcoming that gives them an opportunity to start changing the perception that people have about them.

(2)  The Oakland Raiders are starting to look like a team that could surprise some folks in the AFC.  They are a whisker away from being the only undefeated team in the conference and they seem to be developing a personality that harkens back to the glory days of the franchise.  Obviously, the biggest stain on their 2011 resume is blowing a 21-3 halftime lead against the Buffalo Bills in week two.  Their second half meltdown speaks to one of my principal concerns about the Raiders: their defense.  They allowed the Bills to score 35 points in the second half and allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense including 223 yards on the ground.  Actually, Buffalo never had to send their punting unit onto the field in the second half.  They scored touchdowns on five straight possessions and each of scoring drives was in excess of 55 yards, including three 80-yard drives.  This was a Chernobyl-style implosion by a defense that many observers believed would be much improved, especially across the defensive line.  They followed up the devastating loss to the Bills by allowing nearly 450 total yards against the Jets, but I observed two key differences that I thought were positive signs for Oakland.  First of all, they played the run much better against the Jets.  It is common knowledge that New York wants to play smash-mouth football, but the Raiders were not willing to go along with the plan.  They allowed just 100 yards on 25 carries and forced a fumble from Shonn Greene.  Secondly, I thought that the Raiders brought a controlled fury that knocked around the Jets pretty good.  Their physical play put a hurting on Mark Sanchez and guaranteed that he wouldn’t be enjoying a foot long in the fourth quarter.  Sanchez threw for 369 yards, but I believe your chances for victory against the Jets increase when he is asked to carry the load.  The Raiders are far from a perfect defense, but they are able to mask some of their deficiencies when they play with the ferocious, hard-hitting style that we saw on Sunday.

I like the Raiders even more because of what I’m seeing from their offense.  First of all, they are establishing a reputation for running the ball down their opponents’ throats.  Darren McFadden referred to the progression of their ground game as “building a bully.”  They want to play offense like they are the biggest, baddest guys on the block.  The first three weeks of the season have shown that they are doing a pretty good job of implementing their vision.  Through the first three games, Oakland is leading the NFL in rushing and they produced the most rushing yards ever against a Rex Ryan-led Jets team.  I believe they have the makings of a running game similar to the Earth, Wind & Fire group from the New York Giants a few years ago.  Right now, they are led by the dynamic play-making ability of McFadden, who I believe is developing into the most complete running back in the NFL.  He may not be more talented than Adrian Peterson as a pure runner, but his ability to catch the football and pass block makes him a unique package.  In addition, they have the bruising running style of Michael Bush to use in short-yardage situations or when the defense has tired of chasing after McFadden.  Finally, they have the ability to throw a change-up at the defense with Taiwan Jones’ blazing speed.  Once Jones gains a little more experience, I think that the Raiders are going to be nearly unstoppable running the football.  Also, I like that Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing the offense.  He knows that the Raiders don’t have a lot of experience on the outside, so he’s taking what the defense gives him and allowing the Raiders to rely heavily on their running game.  Campbell only threw for 156 yards, but Oakland still scored 34 points and beat a very good conference opponent.  In reality, Campbell has had two very mediocre games in his three starts, but the Raiders have won them both.  If Oakland can continue to follow their offensive recipe and they get a marginal improvement from their defense, then they are going to give the Chargers a run for their money in the AFC West.

(3) The Philadelphia Eagles are locked in a high risk/high reward situation with Michael Vick.  The high risk comes with giving the guy a $100 million contract after he blew every single opportunity that his last $100 million contract afforded him.  The Eagles are obviously hoping and praying that Vick has grown up since his titanic failure to live up to all the expectations in Atlanta, but we can’t ignore the fact that he was released from prison about 2.5 years because his personal life was completely out of control.  The dogfighting conviction and the prison stint would be big enough issues on their own, but Vick adds an additional layer of extreme risk due to the fragility that he has exhibited in his career.  He has played the full 16-game slate just once in his career and he missed four games just last season.  If Vick cannot keep his nose clean off the field or his body healthy on the field, then the Eagles’ investment is going to go up in smoke Bernie Madoff-style. 

The Eagles are willing to take the risk because they have seen the rewards that Vick’s talent can generate on the field.  They saw him eviscerate the Jacksonville Jaguars in week three last year.  They saw his pantheon game against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night football.  They saw him flip the switch in the second half in a dominating performance against the New York Giants.  Despite missing the four games, Vick was still able to lead the Eagles to a division title and a home playoff game.  He couldn’t deliver in the playoffs, but he once again demonstrated a peerless level of play-making, which convinced the Eagles to trade away Kevin Kolb in the offseason and push all their chips to the center of the table for Vick.  After the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia has received an uneven return on their investment, which is probably putting it mildly.  In week one, he lead the team to a victory on the road, but he looked very much like the Atlanta version of Mike Vick.  He was erratic throwing the football, but he used his legs to counter-balance his inaccurate passing.  Following the shaky debut, Vick has been knocked out of the last two games with injuries.  The ironic part is that both injuries occurred while he stood in the pocket, which wasn’t the location that everyone thought he would be hurt.  The popular thought was that Vick was sure to be injured as he ran recklessly through the opponent’s secondary on one of his trademark scrambles.  The bottom line is that Vick will continue to be injury-prone due to his style of play and his slight frame.  If the Eagles want to protect their investment, then they need to spend more time on improving their offensive line rather than complaining about the amount of times that Vick gets hit by opposing defenses.  While it may be true that Vick doesn’t get protected like other quarterbacks, it is counterproductive to publicly critique the same people that you are expecting to provide protection.  The biggest mistake that the Eagles made was not handing the huge contract to Vick, it was making wholesale changes on the offensive line even though their prized quarterback has a history of injuries.  All the talk around their splashy free agent moves glossed over the biggest risk they took going into the season: new faces at four of the five offensive line positions.

Week Three Picks

Here are my picks for week three (home teams in CAPS):

Patriots over BILLS
BENGALS over 49ers
BROWNS over Dolphins
TITANS over Broncos
Lions over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Texans
EAGLES over Giants
PANTHERS over Jaguars
Jets over RAIDERS
Ravens over RAMS
CHARGERS over Chiefs
Packers over BEARS
Falcons over BUCCANEERS
Steelers over COLTS
Redskins over COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS over Cardinals

Last Week: 14-2
Overall: 23-9

Week Two Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Detroit’s 45-point win is the Lions’ largest since beating the Browns 59-14 in the 1957 NFL Championship Game.

Stat of the week No. 2: Donald Driver passed James Lofton for the most receiving yards in Packers’ history (9,666 yards).

Stat of the week No. 3: Tony Gonzalez has surpassed Terrell Owens for 5th most receptions in NFL history. With just 22 catches more, Gonzalez will have the 2nd most receptions in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 4: Tom Brady is the only player in NFL history to follow a 500-yard passing performance with a 400-yard game.

Stat of the week No. 5: Cam Newton is the first QB in history to throw for 400 yards in his first two games and only the sixth QB to have back-to-back 400-yard games.

Bonus Stat of the week: Since realignment in 2002, 29 of 32 teams have made the playoffs. The three teams that have not – Buffalo, Detroit & Houston – are each 2-0.

Brady's amazing start to the 2011 season and other NFL thoughts

(1) The New England Patriots have a 2-0 record this morning thanks primarily to having the best quarterback in the NFL calling the shots. Tom Brady followed up his 517-yard franchise record against the Miami Dolphins with a sparkling 423-yard game against San Diego, in which he only threw nine incompletions and was not intercepted. In the process, he became the first QB in NFL history to follow a 500-yard game with a 400-yard game. After two games, Brady is on pace to shatter the NFL records for yards and touchdown passes in a season. Even more impressive than Brady’s raw production has been his masterful control of the Patriots’ offense. No matter what formation the Patriots’ offense lined up in on Sunday, Brady found success dissecting the San Diego defense. When the Patriots lined up with two or more tight ends, Brady completed nearly 72% of his attempts and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. When New England went with three or more wide receivers, Brady did even better with an 88.9% completion rate and nearly 15 yards per attempt. In addition, he took advantage of the Chargers’ secondary, one of the top defenses against the deep ball in 2010, by completing 10-12 passes that traveled 11 yards or more. San Diego literally had no answers for Brady’s tremendous execution of the offense. The bright side is the Miami Dolphins are no longer the only members of the Tom Brady Torched Us Anonymous therapy group. The results from Sunday had to have looked pretty familiar to week one, when Brady was 10-17 on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air and threw for 416 yards out of the 2+ TE formation. Saying that Brady is in a zone is an insult to zones. Through the first two weeks, Brady is playing at a level that defies explanation. It is unrealistic to think that Brady is going to keep up his current pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez likely to miss the next couple of weeks, but he definitely adding another chapter to his already sterling career.

   Unfortunately, for the Patriots, they might need Brady to maintain his current production because their defense, especially against the pass, looks atrocious. In Week One, they allowed Chad Henne to throw for 416 yards and average 8.5 yards per attempt. For the purpose of comparison, Henne’s yards per attempt average would have been the second best average in the NFL for 2010. I think we can all agree that Henne is an average NFL quarterback at best. For goodness sake, the Dolphins were actively trying to trade for Kyle Orton before the season began, which is as big of an indictment of Henne as you can imagine. Keep in mind that the Dolphins threw for only 170 yards in week two against the Houston Texans. The same Texans team that was the worst pass defense in 2010. Following their awful debut, the New England defense allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 378 yards and average 9.5 yards per attempt. Rivers is obviously an MVP candidate, but you have to be concerned about a defense that is allowing 381 passing yards per game. Surprisingly, San Diego did all this damage without any production from Antonio Gates, who was held without a reception for the first time in 34 games. Rivers consistently found Vincent Jackson (10 receptions), Mike Tolbert (eight catches) and Ryan Mathews (seven catches) to extend drives and keep the pressure on the New England defense. Rivers’ ability to check-down to the running backs and take what the Patriots were giving him allowed the Chargers to convert on 83% of their third down opportunities. The saving grace for New England was the fact that they forced four San Diego turnovers. In addition, they stopped another Chargers’ drive at the one-yard line. San Diego was in Patriots’ territory all day long, but they made too many mistakes to fully capitalize on the porousness of the New England secondary. The Patriots better come up with some answers on defense soon because there will come a game when Brady struggles and the turnover pipeline dries up.

(2) Fans that support perennial losers are part of an informal fraternity, where the anguish is real, but the loyalty is seen as a badge of honor. The feelings that a Detroit Lions’ fan shares with a Buffalo Bills’ fan is a mixture of pain from being kicked in the guts for so long and pride for being able to get off the mat time after time. Long-suffering fans vacillate between a feeling of resignation that it will never be our year and a hopeful feeling that this year will finally bring success. The casual sports fan doesn’t understand why someone would continue to support a losing team year and year, but when the only thing that you know are the Detroit Lions or the Buffalo Bills then there is no other choice.

    In football terms, the Lions have defined another level of losing. They won four NFL championships prior to the Super Bowl era, but they have never even appeared in the Super Bowl. The closest they have ever come was their appearance in the 1991 NFC Championship game. After a fairly successful period in the 1990’s with six playoff appearances, the Lions have not returned to the post-season since 1999. They haven’t won more than seven games since 2000 and they lost all 16 games in 2008, which set a new NFL standard for ineptitude. Despite all of their recent struggles, the Lions were considered by many pundits to be a chic pick to make the playoffs in 2011. After two weeks, it looks like the Lions might just be for real. They beat Tampa Bay on the road to open the season behind 305 yards passing and three touchdowns from Matt Stafford. Any road win is huge in the NFL, but the Lions winning on the road is even more special considering that they once lost 27 consecutive games away from Ford Field. Following the opening win, Detroit completely destroyed the hapless Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener. Stafford had another excellent game and the Lions scored their largest regular season victory in their rather checkered history. The offense has certainly lived up to preseason expectations, but I’m even more impressed by how impressive their defense has played. The Lions forced six turnovers against the Chiefs and held them to only an 18% conversion rate on third down. They were equally impressive against the Buccaneers the week previous holding the Bucs to only 315 total yards and forcing two turnovers. They have defended the run unevenly over the first two weeks, but they definitely look like a unit that is improving and gaining confidence. Keep in mind that Ndamukong Suh hasn’t really got going yet and first round draft pick, Nick Fairley, hasn’t even seen the field. Detroit looks like it finally has the makings to reward their long-suffering fans with a playoff appearance.

(3) I hate to rub salt in the wound, but I have to point out that Matthew Hasselbeck looked awfully impressive against the big, bad Baltimore defense. Behind a stout effort from the Tennessee offensive line, Hasselbeck completed nearly 72% of his attempts on his way to throwing for over 350 yards. Last season, he didn’t throw for over 350 yards until a November 21st match-up against the New Orleans Saints. With one game to go, Hasselbeck has posted the third highest Total QB Rating (92.2) for week two and he has registered above a 90 on the traditional QB rating metric in each of the first two weeks. Amazingly, he has performed at a high level without any running game to speak of. In week one, the Titans averaged 3.3 yards per carry on only 13 rushing attempts. Things didn’t get much better against the Ravens as the Titans saw their average dip to 2.6 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Nevertheless, Hasselbeck is finding success because of the strength of the Titans’ offensive line and the relationship that he is developing with his mercurial wide receiver, Kenny Britt. After two weeks, all of Hasselbeck’s touchdown passes, 43% of his passing yards, 31% of his targets and 27% of completions have gone to Britt. If Tennessee can get Chris Johnson going, then they might have a set of triplets that is unmatched in the AFC South, especially if Arian Foster’s hamstring continues to be an issue. The key for the Titans will be keeping Hasselbeck and Britt healthy because they both have a recent history of injuries. If they can keep holding opponents without a sack like they did to Baltimore, then Matt’s health shouldn’t become an issue.

   Tennessee’s pleasure comes at the expense of every Seattle fan that has watched their offense look less effective than a blind man as an eyewitness. Fair or unfair, each Hasselbeck yard, completion and touchdown will be juxtaposed with the increasingly brutal style of offense being exhibited by the Tarvaris Jackson-led Seahawks. Every Seattle fan will say that it was a mistake to let Hasselbeck go even though they probably supported the decision when it was made. Heck, I was okay with the decision until I realized that Carroll & Schneider were going to hand the reins of the team to Jackson. If they were going to go to battle with a “bridge” quarterback, then Hasselbeck was the best option in my opinion. Honestly, I’m actually glad that Hasselbeck was able to move on to Tennessee. I think that his career would have definitely ended playing behind the sorry unit that Seattle pretends is an offensive line. As a result, I don’t think that Seattle’s early results would have been much different with Matt behind center. The Seahawks still can’t run the football or protect the quarterback, so they might have scored a few more points but they still would have been 0-2.

Week Two Picks

Here are my picks for week two (home teams in CAPS):

BILLS over Raiders
LIONS over Chiefs
Ravens over TITANS
Browns over COLTS
Buccaneers over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Bears
JETS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Cardinals
Packers over PANTHERS
Cowboys over 49ERS
BRONCOS over Bengals
Texans over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS over Chargers
Eagles over FALCONS
STEELERS over Seahawks
GIANTS over Rams

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 9-7