(1) After the amazing start to his NFL head coaching career, there is little doubt that Jim Harbaugh is one heck of a coach. The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the laughing stock of the NFL prior to Harbaugh’s arrival and he has them poised to be a division winner and possible a top-two seed in his first year. Unfortunately, Harbaugh has left little doubt that he has no use for class, protocol or anything else that professional football coaches extend to each other. His over the top post-game handshake with Jim Schwartz was just the latest example of his disdain for his opponents. Frankly, throughout his time as a head coach, Harbaugh has come across as a huge jerk that doesn’t care about the impact of his words or his actions. When he was first hired at Stanford, he made statements about Pete Carroll leaving USC within a year, which was an obvious tactic to hurt the recruiting machine that Carroll had built in Troy. He later made disparaging comments about the academic standards of his alma mater, Michigan, which were supported by fact but were nonetheless unnecessary. Finally, he made postgame remarks to his team, following last year’s 41-0 drubbing of the Washington Huskies, in regards to kicking the ass of the “highest-paid coaching staff around.”
Harbaugh’s supporters would say that these are examples of his ultra-competitiveness getting the best of him. In my opinion, that is only an excuse for a guy that makes these statements in a purposeful way to ruffle the feathers of his rivals. My advice to Harbaugh would be to shut his mouth and tone down his antics, so that the success of his football teams is the main attraction rather than the actions of the head coach. It is a shame that we are focusing on the infantile confrontation between two NFL coaches rather than an excellent football game played between the Detroit Lions and the 49ers. The focus today should be about San Francisco’s ability to take the Lions’ best shot and still come away victorious on the road. We should be talking about Frank Gore’s outstanding day on the ground and the stifling defensive effort led by Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Instead, we are talking about Harbaugh’s ridiculous attempt to show up his peer and Schwartz’s equally childish attempts to chase Harbaugh into the locker room and start a fight. Unfortunately, as long as Harbaugh continues to win, he isn’t going to stop his pompous routine because he doesn’t care about anyone that doesn’t work for the 49ers’ franchise. The only way to stop him is to beat him so badly on a regular basis that the York family has no choice but to fire him. Based on his track record, I think that is wishful thinking.
(2) The Washington Redskins are blowing an opportunity to take control of the NFC East because they have one of the three worst quarterback situations in the National Football League. It should come as no surprise that the Skins are struggling at the quarterback position considering the options that they started the season with, but their deficiencies at this key position have been magnified by the fact that their division is eminently winnable. The New York Giants have been beset by injuries and can be best described as up-and-down. The Dallas Cowboys are a disaster waiting to happen and the Philadelphia Eagles have failed miserably in their attempt to build their own fantasy football team. Unfortunately, Washington is blowing their chance because they foolishly decided to go all in with Rex Grossman as their starter and John Beck as the back-up quarterback. The Washington coaching staff wanted us to believe that they really liked what they had at quarterback, but everyone could see that their choice wasn’t going to work out well. It was amazing to me that the Redskins’ brain trust didn’t seem to remember that Grossman’s best NFL days involved riding an elite defense’s coattails to the 2006 Super Bowl. Other than a few good moments during the 2005 season and resulting playoff run, Grossman’s NFL career can be summed up in one word: bleh. They also didn’t seem to notice that Beck hadn’t had anything remotely close to a good day in the NFL. Nevertheless, the Skins rolled the dice that Sexy Rexy could rekindle his glory days when he tried to not make mistakes and allowed his dominant defense to win games. Instead, Grossman has turned the ball over 11 times in five games and has basically wasted a defense that is allowing only 16.6 points per game. He has saved his worst performances for the times that Washington has lost this year with over half of his turnovers coming in those two games. The Redskins lost by two points to Dallas and by seven points to Philadelphia, when Grossman threw three interceptions inside the Eagles’ 30-yard line, so it is safe to say that the Redskins have been just a Grossman away from being undefeated. Now, Mike Shanahan is in the unenviable position of having to choose between two flawed choices to lead his team into their next game. As a result of their huge disadvantage at quarterback, I predict that the Skins will be watching the playoffs yet again instead of participating in them.
(3) With the early success of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez and the impressive debuts of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, I think it is time for the Minnesota Vikings to hand over the starting quarterback job to Christian Ponder. Honestly, I’m not sure why it has taken six weeks to even get to the point where Ponder is a viable candidate to run the show. Anyone that has watched Donovan McNabb play this year can see that he has lost his fastball completely, so he probably should have been replaced a couple of weeks ago when any magic that Ponder could have mustered might have been able to save the Vikings’ season. At this point, Minnesota has nothing other than pride to play for, so Leslie Frazier should make the switch to his rookie quarterback. He will be throwing his youngster to the wolves against the defending Super Bowl champs this Sunday, but a week eight match-up in Carolina and a week nine bye should allow Ponder to get better acclimated to being an NFL quarterback. In the best case scenario, Ponder has some early success a la Andy Dalton and the Vikings win a few games that they would have lost with McNabb short-hopping throws to open receivers. In the worst case scenario, Minnesota continues to lose but Ponder earns some valuable experience like Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville. Either way, the Vikings are finding out what they have in the future right now instead of blindly handing the football to McNabb on a weekly basis as he kills the spirit of his teammates’ and fans’. The sad part is that a classy veteran like McNabb is going to finally have to face the facts that he is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has to decide whether or not he wants to hold a clipboard for the next couple of years and collect a few more checks or if he wants to hang up the cleats with his pride still intact.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Friday, October 14, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
Preview
The battle for supremacy in the State of New York has finally arrived with Buffalo’s visit to the Meadowlands to face-off against the Giants. On the surface, this game pits two teams going seemingly in opposite directions, but a closer look reveals that the final outcome is much more in doubt than you would imagine. The Bills enter this game with a 4-1 record and a lot of confidence but their depth will be tested due to a recent rash of injuries. They are missing a ton of wide receivers and they will likely play Sunday without defensive stalwarts Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman. I don’t believe that the injuries will impact the offensive side of the football that much because Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a wonderful job of spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, but the missing defenders could have a disastrous effect on Buffalo’s ability to win this game. Even with all of their players healthy, the Bills have not been a very good defensive team. They don’t get after the quarterback with only four sacks on the season and they are the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills really haven’t stopped their opponents from doing anything. Their saving grace has been their ability to force their opponents into turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential, which includes a league-high 12 interceptions. Most impressively, the Bills have returned an interception for a touchdown in the last three games. Obviously, forcing a lot of turnovers is a great indicator of success, but at some point the Bills are going to have to stop someone with sound defensive execution. With the game being on the road and the injuries mounting, I don’t believe that Buffalo is going to find the magic defensive pixie dust this week. I think that the Giants will take advantage of Williams’ absence and re-establish a running game that has been missing for most of the 2011 season. If the Giants are able to run the ball, then it will reduce the pressure on Eli Manning and reduce the number of opportunities that he has to throw the football to the other side.
The other area that I think deserves a lot of focus is the battle between the Buffalo offensive line and the New York pass rush. The Bills have been the stingiest offensive line in the NFL when it comes to allowing sacks as their opponents have reached Ryan Fitzgerald only four times in five games. On the other side, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 18. New York will likely be without Justin Tuck again, but they have more than enough depth with Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka to pick up the slack. I’m willing to say that Fitzgerald will face the most pressure he has faced all season, which will lead to at least two turnovers for the Giants’ defense. The great neutralizer for Buffalo is likely to be their 11th ranked running game, which averages 5.0 yards per carry. The Bills must continue running the football with success in order to take some of the steam out of the Giants’ potentially devastating pass rush. The Bills’ best chance to win involves Fred Jackson running for 125 or more yards on the ground and getting two or three opportunities to burn the aggressive New York defensive line in the screen game. Jackson is the x-factor in this game because he is the one player capable of keeping the wolves at bay. However, I believe that the Giants will play better against the run than they have all season, which will put the Buffalo offense in longer third down situations. At this point, the Giants will be able to pin their ears back and get after Fitzgerald, which is where the game will be ultimately won.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the quarterback – The Bills have protected the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Giants have allowed nearly three sacks per game. However, the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of collecting sacks. I believe that the Giants’ ability to pressure and sack the quarterback will overcome the great protection that the Bills have afforded Fitzpatrick through the first five games.
2. Run the football with success – Both of these teams want to run the football, but Buffalo is the only one that has had success on the ground so far. Furthermore, the Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs and right guard Chris Snee, which should weaken their already weak running game. Nevertheless, I believe that the Giants will focus on the run and take advantage of a Buffalo defense that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Also, I believe that the Giants’ defense will slow down Fred Jackson just enough to keep this part of the game even.
3. Keep turnovers at a minimum – The Bills’ defense has been the definition of opportunistic and Eli Manning has a history of being turnover prone. With these facts as our backdrop, Buffalo should have a huge advantage when it comes to the giveaway/takeaway ratio. However, the combination of a stronger Giants’ running game and the lack of a pass rush from Buffalo will keep Manning’s mistakes to a minimum and allow the Giants to take full advantage of Buffalo’s overall weak defense.
Prediction
New York Giants 21 – Buffalo Bills 17
The battle for supremacy in the State of New York has finally arrived with Buffalo’s visit to the Meadowlands to face-off against the Giants. On the surface, this game pits two teams going seemingly in opposite directions, but a closer look reveals that the final outcome is much more in doubt than you would imagine. The Bills enter this game with a 4-1 record and a lot of confidence but their depth will be tested due to a recent rash of injuries. They are missing a ton of wide receivers and they will likely play Sunday without defensive stalwarts Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett and Shawne Merriman. I don’t believe that the injuries will impact the offensive side of the football that much because Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a wonderful job of spreading the ball around to all of his receivers, but the missing defenders could have a disastrous effect on Buffalo’s ability to win this game. Even with all of their players healthy, the Bills have not been a very good defensive team. They don’t get after the quarterback with only four sacks on the season and they are the 30th ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills really haven’t stopped their opponents from doing anything. Their saving grace has been their ability to force their opponents into turnovers. They lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential, which includes a league-high 12 interceptions. Most impressively, the Bills have returned an interception for a touchdown in the last three games. Obviously, forcing a lot of turnovers is a great indicator of success, but at some point the Bills are going to have to stop someone with sound defensive execution. With the game being on the road and the injuries mounting, I don’t believe that Buffalo is going to find the magic defensive pixie dust this week. I think that the Giants will take advantage of Williams’ absence and re-establish a running game that has been missing for most of the 2011 season. If the Giants are able to run the ball, then it will reduce the pressure on Eli Manning and reduce the number of opportunities that he has to throw the football to the other side.
The other area that I think deserves a lot of focus is the battle between the Buffalo offensive line and the New York pass rush. The Bills have been the stingiest offensive line in the NFL when it comes to allowing sacks as their opponents have reached Ryan Fitzgerald only four times in five games. On the other side, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 18. New York will likely be without Justin Tuck again, but they have more than enough depth with Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka to pick up the slack. I’m willing to say that Fitzgerald will face the most pressure he has faced all season, which will lead to at least two turnovers for the Giants’ defense. The great neutralizer for Buffalo is likely to be their 11th ranked running game, which averages 5.0 yards per carry. The Bills must continue running the football with success in order to take some of the steam out of the Giants’ potentially devastating pass rush. The Bills’ best chance to win involves Fred Jackson running for 125 or more yards on the ground and getting two or three opportunities to burn the aggressive New York defensive line in the screen game. Jackson is the x-factor in this game because he is the one player capable of keeping the wolves at bay. However, I believe that the Giants will play better against the run than they have all season, which will put the Buffalo offense in longer third down situations. At this point, the Giants will be able to pin their ears back and get after Fitzgerald, which is where the game will be ultimately won.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the quarterback – The Bills have protected the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Giants have allowed nearly three sacks per game. However, the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of collecting sacks. I believe that the Giants’ ability to pressure and sack the quarterback will overcome the great protection that the Bills have afforded Fitzpatrick through the first five games.
2. Run the football with success – Both of these teams want to run the football, but Buffalo is the only one that has had success on the ground so far. Furthermore, the Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs and right guard Chris Snee, which should weaken their already weak running game. Nevertheless, I believe that the Giants will focus on the run and take advantage of a Buffalo defense that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Also, I believe that the Giants’ defense will slow down Fred Jackson just enough to keep this part of the game even.
3. Keep turnovers at a minimum – The Bills’ defense has been the definition of opportunistic and Eli Manning has a history of being turnover prone. With these facts as our backdrop, Buffalo should have a huge advantage when it comes to the giveaway/takeaway ratio. However, the combination of a stronger Giants’ running game and the lack of a pass rush from Buffalo will keep Manning’s mistakes to a minimum and allow the Giants to take full advantage of Buffalo’s overall weak defense.
Prediction
New York Giants 21 – Buffalo Bills 17
Week Six Picks
Here are my picks for week six (home teams in CAPS):
Panthers over FALCONS
BENGALS over Colts
LIONS over 49ers
PACKERS over Rams
GIANTS over Bills
STEELERS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Eagles
RAIDERS over Browns
RAVENS over Texans
PATRIOTS over Cowboys
Saints over BUCCANEERS
BEARS over Vikings
JETS over Dolphins
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 51-26
Panthers over FALCONS
BENGALS over Colts
LIONS over 49ers
PACKERS over Rams
GIANTS over Bills
STEELERS over Jaguars
REDSKINS over Eagles
RAIDERS over Browns
RAVENS over Texans
PATRIOTS over Cowboys
Saints over BUCCANEERS
BEARS over Vikings
JETS over Dolphins
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 51-26
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Week Five Stats of the Week
Stat of the week No. 1: Detroit Lions started 5-0 for the fourth time in franchise history. They also started 5-0 in 1931, 1934 & 1956. They played as the Portsmouth Spartans from 1930-33.
Stat of the week No. 2: New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history (St. Louis, 14 consecutive games, ’99-’00)
Stat of the week No. 3: Aaron Rodgers is the fifth player with 100+ passer rating in each of the first five games of a season since 1970 (Tom Brady – ’07, Carson Palmer – ’05, Roger Staubach – ’76, John Hadl – ’73)
Stat of the week No. 4: Saints TE Jimmy Graham has three consecutive 100-yard receiving games. He is the first tight end to accomplish this feat since Tony Gonzalez in 2000.
Stat of the week No. 5: Kansas City’s come-from-behind victory marks the seventh time this season that a team has won a game despite trailing by 17 points or more, which is the most through five weeks in NFL history. 18 teams have won games after trailing by 10 points or more, which is also the most ever through five weeks
Stat of the week No. 2: New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 consecutive games, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history (St. Louis, 14 consecutive games, ’99-’00)
Stat of the week No. 3: Aaron Rodgers is the fifth player with 100+ passer rating in each of the first five games of a season since 1970 (Tom Brady – ’07, Carson Palmer – ’05, Roger Staubach – ’76, John Hadl – ’73)
Stat of the week No. 4: Saints TE Jimmy Graham has three consecutive 100-yard receiving games. He is the first tight end to accomplish this feat since Tony Gonzalez in 2000.
Stat of the week No. 5: Kansas City’s come-from-behind victory marks the seventh time this season that a team has won a game despite trailing by 17 points or more, which is the most through five weeks in NFL history. 18 teams have won games after trailing by 10 points or more, which is also the most ever through five weeks
The Seahawk's big win on the road and other NFL thoughts
(1) The Seattle Seahawks have certainly had bigger, more important victories in their franchise’s history, but the 36-25 road win over the New York Giants is the most impressive regular season victory in the Pete Carroll era. Last year’s triumph over the Bears in Chi-town was a great moment, but this victory surpasses that one on many different levels. First of all, the Hawks were finally able to win a game in the Eastern Time zone for the first time since 2007. Take an opportunity to allow that fact to marinate in your brain for a moment. Seattle has been zero for the last three seasons in their travels to the eastern seaboard. For those of you with short memories, the Hawks’ last victory on the East Coast was a 28-24 decision over the Philadelphia Eagles on December 2, 2007. Since that day, Seattle had lost nine consecutive road games in the Eastern Time zone by an average of 16 points. Hopefully, their big win this past Sunday will once and for all shake the east coast bugaboo for Seattle.
Secondly, the Hawks were able to beat a team that has owned them physically, mentally and emotionally over the last couple of seasons. Last year, the Hawks allowed New York to come into Qwest Field and generate 487 yards of total offense and control the clock for over 40 minutes on their way to a 41-7 shellacking. Back in 2008, the Hawks rolled into the Meadowlands following a bye week and got trounced 44-6 by the Giants. New York produced 523 yards of total offense and their defense thoroughly dominated Seattle. I believe that the Seahawk defenders that played that day still have Brandon Jacobs’ tread marks on the front of their jerseys. The third reason that this victory was so huge was that it was an honest to goodness team effort. It has not been often over the last four seasons that Seattle has been able to match good defense and good offense on the same day. Through the first three-and-a-half games of 2011, the Seattle defense had generally played better football than their counterparts on the other side of the line. The offense finally stood up in the second half of the loss to Atlanta and it nearly was enough to steal the game. There was hope, leading up to the New York game, that the Hawks were finally poised to play a somewhat complete game. Their performance on Sunday is not going to win any beauty contests, but I really enjoyed the way that each unit picked up the other. The offense turned the ball over three times, but the defense forced five turnovers, returned an interception for a touchdown and registered a safety. The offense lost Tarvaris Jackson to an injury, but the defense pitched a shutout in the third quarter to give back-up Charlie Whitehurst an opportunity to get settled in. The defense allowed the Giants to take the lead twice in the fourth quarter, but the Seattle offense responded both times with scoring drives to regain control of the game. For one of the few times in recent memory, I was proud to be a Seattle fan.
Finally, the Hawks were able to get this big win thanks to some great plays from their young guys and back-ups. Whitehurst played admirably in relief of Jackson and may have played himself into a dreaded quarterback controversy. Doug Baldwin has gone from being undrafted to leading the team in receptions after five weeks. Baldwin’s heady play was never more evident that his decision to continue playing when it appeared that the Giants’ defense stopped because they thought a penalty was going to be called on Osi Umenyiora for rushing unabated to the quarterback. The result was a game-winning touchdown pass from Whitehurst. Let’s not forget the game-clinching interception return for a touchdown by Brandon Browner, which capped a day of big plays from the Seattle defense. We also saw Anthony Hargrove make a gigantic play with the safety in the third quarter and Chris Clemons play a maniacal game from his rush end position. All of these guys, plus many others on the Seattle roster, were unwanted by their former employers. I think it says a lot about John Schneider’s eye for talent that they are all showing they have the talent to compete and succeed in the NFL still. With this wonderful result, the bye week and two winnable games in weeks seven and eight, the Hawks might have found the elixir to turn their season around.
(2) With the silence befitting a ninja, the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to build something special despite the utter lack of positive expectations. The stare down between Carson Palmer and Mike Brown clouded their offseason and the horrible start to the Andy Dalton era had Cincinnati fans preparing themselves for another long season. After a 1-2 start to the year, it appeared that the predicted disaster was going to happen. However, the astute observer could look past the back-to-back losses to Denver and San Francisco to see several positive signs that the Bengals had a chance to be better than anyone could have predicted. The first good sign is that Andy Dalton was not the train-wreck that he appeared to be in the preseason. He struggled mightily at home against San Francisco, but he played brilliantly on the road in Denver and has been solid over the last two weeks. Dalton is not a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback right now, but his early play has indicated that the future is bright for the Bengals. It also has lessened the sting of Palmer’s decision to walk away from the team rather than play another down in the Queen City. The second encouraging sign is that Dalton has already established a rapport with his fellow rookie, A.J. Green. Their budding connection has already produced 24 completions and two touchdowns. You can excuse Cincinnati fans from daydreaming about Dalton-to-Green touchdown passes for the next 5-10 years. In his own right, Green looks like the real deal, as he ranks in the top 20 among wide receivers in yards, receptions and yards per reception. The final reason to be optimistic in Cincinnati has been the stellar play from their defense. The Bengals’ defense was completely ignored leading up to the start of the 2011 season, but they are currently ranked as the #1 overall defense after five weeks. This unit may not be filled with household names, but it has proven that it is one of the best groups in the NFL. More importantly, it has given the young offense time to come together and develop its own identity. With Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee next up on their schedule, the Bengals have a golden opportunity to be at least 5-3 heading into a November 13th showdown with Pittsburgh.
(3) I guess all of the attempts by the media to bury the Pittsburgh Steelers were a bit premature. The Steelers had looked awful in losses to Baltimore and Houston and underwhelming in victories over Seattle and Indianapolis, so the dominant talk in the blogosphere and on talk radio was that their window of opportunity had closed completely. Making matters worse, they entered the match-up with Tennessee with a banged-up quarterback, a patchwork offensive line and a number of their stalwarts missing in action due to injury. The prevailing thought was that the Titans would seize their opportunity and continue their surprising start with a road victory over the Steelers. Unfortunately, for Tennessee, NFL games are not played on talk radio. Instead, Pittsburgh dominated the Titans from beginning to end with a resilient effort that has always been a trademark of the franchise. Ben Roethlisberger shook off an injured foot to lead the way with five touchdown passes, while his rebuilt offensive line held up for most of the afternoon. The Steelers certainly configured their game plan to limit the opportunities to get Big Ben hit, but the mid-week signing of Max Starks seems to have solidified an offensive line that has been a disaster through the first four weeks. In addition to Roethlisberger’s tremendous performance, the Steelers’ defense rebounded nicely from their horrendous game against Houston. They may have been unable to slow down Arian Foster, but they completely bottled up Chris Johnson, which allowed them to unleash their pass rushers on Matt Hasselbeck. Most impressively, they dominated Tennessee without the services of James Harrison, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith. Despite having a shut out on their 2011 resume, this performance marks their most dominating defensive effort of the season. The Seahawks basically laid down during the 24-0 loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but the Titans had a hot quarterback and enough playmakers to give the Steelers headaches. Pittsburgh made Hasselbeck look pedestrian and never allowed the Titans to have any breathing room on offense. This Steelers team is the team that has been one of the dominant squads in the AFC over the last 10 years despite the hope from around the NFL that their best days were behind them. Now, the Steelers have a chance to get even healthier with games against Jacksonville and Arizona over the next two weeks.
Secondly, the Hawks were able to beat a team that has owned them physically, mentally and emotionally over the last couple of seasons. Last year, the Hawks allowed New York to come into Qwest Field and generate 487 yards of total offense and control the clock for over 40 minutes on their way to a 41-7 shellacking. Back in 2008, the Hawks rolled into the Meadowlands following a bye week and got trounced 44-6 by the Giants. New York produced 523 yards of total offense and their defense thoroughly dominated Seattle. I believe that the Seahawk defenders that played that day still have Brandon Jacobs’ tread marks on the front of their jerseys. The third reason that this victory was so huge was that it was an honest to goodness team effort. It has not been often over the last four seasons that Seattle has been able to match good defense and good offense on the same day. Through the first three-and-a-half games of 2011, the Seattle defense had generally played better football than their counterparts on the other side of the line. The offense finally stood up in the second half of the loss to Atlanta and it nearly was enough to steal the game. There was hope, leading up to the New York game, that the Hawks were finally poised to play a somewhat complete game. Their performance on Sunday is not going to win any beauty contests, but I really enjoyed the way that each unit picked up the other. The offense turned the ball over three times, but the defense forced five turnovers, returned an interception for a touchdown and registered a safety. The offense lost Tarvaris Jackson to an injury, but the defense pitched a shutout in the third quarter to give back-up Charlie Whitehurst an opportunity to get settled in. The defense allowed the Giants to take the lead twice in the fourth quarter, but the Seattle offense responded both times with scoring drives to regain control of the game. For one of the few times in recent memory, I was proud to be a Seattle fan.
Finally, the Hawks were able to get this big win thanks to some great plays from their young guys and back-ups. Whitehurst played admirably in relief of Jackson and may have played himself into a dreaded quarterback controversy. Doug Baldwin has gone from being undrafted to leading the team in receptions after five weeks. Baldwin’s heady play was never more evident that his decision to continue playing when it appeared that the Giants’ defense stopped because they thought a penalty was going to be called on Osi Umenyiora for rushing unabated to the quarterback. The result was a game-winning touchdown pass from Whitehurst. Let’s not forget the game-clinching interception return for a touchdown by Brandon Browner, which capped a day of big plays from the Seattle defense. We also saw Anthony Hargrove make a gigantic play with the safety in the third quarter and Chris Clemons play a maniacal game from his rush end position. All of these guys, plus many others on the Seattle roster, were unwanted by their former employers. I think it says a lot about John Schneider’s eye for talent that they are all showing they have the talent to compete and succeed in the NFL still. With this wonderful result, the bye week and two winnable games in weeks seven and eight, the Hawks might have found the elixir to turn their season around.
(2) With the silence befitting a ninja, the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to build something special despite the utter lack of positive expectations. The stare down between Carson Palmer and Mike Brown clouded their offseason and the horrible start to the Andy Dalton era had Cincinnati fans preparing themselves for another long season. After a 1-2 start to the year, it appeared that the predicted disaster was going to happen. However, the astute observer could look past the back-to-back losses to Denver and San Francisco to see several positive signs that the Bengals had a chance to be better than anyone could have predicted. The first good sign is that Andy Dalton was not the train-wreck that he appeared to be in the preseason. He struggled mightily at home against San Francisco, but he played brilliantly on the road in Denver and has been solid over the last two weeks. Dalton is not a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback right now, but his early play has indicated that the future is bright for the Bengals. It also has lessened the sting of Palmer’s decision to walk away from the team rather than play another down in the Queen City. The second encouraging sign is that Dalton has already established a rapport with his fellow rookie, A.J. Green. Their budding connection has already produced 24 completions and two touchdowns. You can excuse Cincinnati fans from daydreaming about Dalton-to-Green touchdown passes for the next 5-10 years. In his own right, Green looks like the real deal, as he ranks in the top 20 among wide receivers in yards, receptions and yards per reception. The final reason to be optimistic in Cincinnati has been the stellar play from their defense. The Bengals’ defense was completely ignored leading up to the start of the 2011 season, but they are currently ranked as the #1 overall defense after five weeks. This unit may not be filled with household names, but it has proven that it is one of the best groups in the NFL. More importantly, it has given the young offense time to come together and develop its own identity. With Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee next up on their schedule, the Bengals have a golden opportunity to be at least 5-3 heading into a November 13th showdown with Pittsburgh.
(3) I guess all of the attempts by the media to bury the Pittsburgh Steelers were a bit premature. The Steelers had looked awful in losses to Baltimore and Houston and underwhelming in victories over Seattle and Indianapolis, so the dominant talk in the blogosphere and on talk radio was that their window of opportunity had closed completely. Making matters worse, they entered the match-up with Tennessee with a banged-up quarterback, a patchwork offensive line and a number of their stalwarts missing in action due to injury. The prevailing thought was that the Titans would seize their opportunity and continue their surprising start with a road victory over the Steelers. Unfortunately, for Tennessee, NFL games are not played on talk radio. Instead, Pittsburgh dominated the Titans from beginning to end with a resilient effort that has always been a trademark of the franchise. Ben Roethlisberger shook off an injured foot to lead the way with five touchdown passes, while his rebuilt offensive line held up for most of the afternoon. The Steelers certainly configured their game plan to limit the opportunities to get Big Ben hit, but the mid-week signing of Max Starks seems to have solidified an offensive line that has been a disaster through the first four weeks. In addition to Roethlisberger’s tremendous performance, the Steelers’ defense rebounded nicely from their horrendous game against Houston. They may have been unable to slow down Arian Foster, but they completely bottled up Chris Johnson, which allowed them to unleash their pass rushers on Matt Hasselbeck. Most impressively, they dominated Tennessee without the services of James Harrison, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith. Despite having a shut out on their 2011 resume, this performance marks their most dominating defensive effort of the season. The Seahawks basically laid down during the 24-0 loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but the Titans had a hot quarterback and enough playmakers to give the Steelers headaches. Pittsburgh made Hasselbeck look pedestrian and never allowed the Titans to have any breathing room on offense. This Steelers team is the team that has been one of the dominant squads in the AFC over the last 10 years despite the hope from around the NFL that their best days were behind them. Now, the Steelers have a chance to get even healthier with games against Jacksonville and Arizona over the next two weeks.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Commish's Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Preview
The game between Tampa Bay and San Francisco is a match-up between two 3-1 teams that are both, surprisingly, division leaders. Despite their early success, both teams have enough question marks about them that this game is virtually a toss-up. The first advantage enjoyed by San Francisco is that they get the pleasure of facing the Bucs after a short week and a cross-country flight. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Tampa has had trouble getting started quickly in all of their four games. They were shut out in the first half during their week two match-up with Minnesota and they have only scored 39% of their points in the first half. Another advantage for San Francisco is the fact that their defensive strength, stopping the run, is in direct conflict with the preferred mode of operation for the Buccaneers. Tampa wants to control the line of scrimmage and dominate in the run game like they did against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The 49ers are in the top five in rushing yards allowed and the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Even with the likely absence of Isaac Sopoaga in the middle of the defensive front, the 49ers should still be able to limit the Bucs’ ability to run the football. With a laser focus on preventing LeGarrette Blount from running wild, San Francisco will force Josh Freeman to win this game with his arm. Freeman had high expectations coming off a wildly successful second-year in the NFL, but his start to the 2011 season has been shaky at best. The Bucs are just the 17th best passing offense in the league and Freeman is averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. The Bucs are not trying to be the best passing team in the NFL, but the results should be better with the weapons that are at Freeman’s disposal. However, the 49ers have been extremely vulnerable in their pass defense, so this match-up just might be the recipe for Freeman to have his biggest day of the year.
The Bucs’ strength on defense is also their ability to stuff the run. It would seem wise for Tampa to take a similar approach as San Francisco and force the opposing quarterback to beat them. The Bucs want to see if the real Alex Smith is the guy that threw for over 200 yards in the second half against the Eagles or the guy that has led the 29th ranked passing attack through the first quarter of the season. If Tampa can create long third down opportunities for the 49ers, then they will be able to unleash their young pass rushers. Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn, Gerald McCoy and the other guys on the defensive line are salivating at the opportunity to get after a San Francisco offensive line that has allowed nearly four sacks per game. The ability to pressure the quarterback is an area where the Bucs have a clear advantage and should be able to use it to create turnovers and short fields for their offense. Another area where Tampa seems to have an edge is on third down. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL in keeping drives alive with third down conversions and one of the stingiest in allowing their opponents to convert similar situations. They are facing another stingy team on third down, but, if the Bucs can control the ball, then their superior offensive line will be able to wear out the depleted 49ers’ front. Finally, the Bucs must protect the football against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Tampa has done a decent job through the first four games, but they are playing a team that has built a large part of their 3-1 record due to their ability to cause turnovers. The 49ers are +8 in the takeaway/give-away department, so they will be looking for opportunities to continue that trend.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have positive turnover differentials, so they will be looking for chances to take the football away from the other side in order to create short fields for the offense or score points themselves. The strength of both teams is their defense, so points will come at a premium. A short field here or there or a defensive touchdown could very well be the difference in the game. Both teams do a good job of protecting the football, but the 49ers will force a key turnover that will help them win this game.
2. Win the special teams battle – Both teams have strong special teams. San Francisco is second in the league in kickoff return average and the Bucs are tied for 3rd. They are very comparable in punt return average, field goal kicking and net punting yards. The difference between the two teams is Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn is third in the NFL in kickoff return average and he is in the top 15 in punt return average. Even though it occurred in the same game, Ginn also has two return touchdowns on the season. Preston Parker is a nice returner, especially on punt returns, but Ginn averages nearly 11 more yards per kickoff return.
3. Stay on the field – Time of possession will be an important factor in this game. The Bucs’ best chance to win the game is to control the football for long stretches of time and wear out the San Francisco defense. As long as the extended drives result in points, the Bucs will be able to steal a win on the road. Based on early results, the Bucs look like the team that is more capable of staying on the field, so this will be a very interesting area of the game to keep an eye on.
Prediction
San Francisco 16 – Tampa Bay 10
The game between Tampa Bay and San Francisco is a match-up between two 3-1 teams that are both, surprisingly, division leaders. Despite their early success, both teams have enough question marks about them that this game is virtually a toss-up. The first advantage enjoyed by San Francisco is that they get the pleasure of facing the Bucs after a short week and a cross-country flight. This advantage is amplified by the fact that Tampa has had trouble getting started quickly in all of their four games. They were shut out in the first half during their week two match-up with Minnesota and they have only scored 39% of their points in the first half. Another advantage for San Francisco is the fact that their defensive strength, stopping the run, is in direct conflict with the preferred mode of operation for the Buccaneers. Tampa wants to control the line of scrimmage and dominate in the run game like they did against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The 49ers are in the top five in rushing yards allowed and the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Even with the likely absence of Isaac Sopoaga in the middle of the defensive front, the 49ers should still be able to limit the Bucs’ ability to run the football. With a laser focus on preventing LeGarrette Blount from running wild, San Francisco will force Josh Freeman to win this game with his arm. Freeman had high expectations coming off a wildly successful second-year in the NFL, but his start to the 2011 season has been shaky at best. The Bucs are just the 17th best passing offense in the league and Freeman is averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. The Bucs are not trying to be the best passing team in the NFL, but the results should be better with the weapons that are at Freeman’s disposal. However, the 49ers have been extremely vulnerable in their pass defense, so this match-up just might be the recipe for Freeman to have his biggest day of the year.
The Bucs’ strength on defense is also their ability to stuff the run. It would seem wise for Tampa to take a similar approach as San Francisco and force the opposing quarterback to beat them. The Bucs want to see if the real Alex Smith is the guy that threw for over 200 yards in the second half against the Eagles or the guy that has led the 29th ranked passing attack through the first quarter of the season. If Tampa can create long third down opportunities for the 49ers, then they will be able to unleash their young pass rushers. Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn, Gerald McCoy and the other guys on the defensive line are salivating at the opportunity to get after a San Francisco offensive line that has allowed nearly four sacks per game. The ability to pressure the quarterback is an area where the Bucs have a clear advantage and should be able to use it to create turnovers and short fields for their offense. Another area where Tampa seems to have an edge is on third down. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL in keeping drives alive with third down conversions and one of the stingiest in allowing their opponents to convert similar situations. They are facing another stingy team on third down, but, if the Bucs can control the ball, then their superior offensive line will be able to wear out the depleted 49ers’ front. Finally, the Bucs must protect the football against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Tampa has done a decent job through the first four games, but they are playing a team that has built a large part of their 3-1 record due to their ability to cause turnovers. The 49ers are +8 in the takeaway/give-away department, so they will be looking for opportunities to continue that trend.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Protect the football – Both teams have positive turnover differentials, so they will be looking for chances to take the football away from the other side in order to create short fields for the offense or score points themselves. The strength of both teams is their defense, so points will come at a premium. A short field here or there or a defensive touchdown could very well be the difference in the game. Both teams do a good job of protecting the football, but the 49ers will force a key turnover that will help them win this game.
2. Win the special teams battle – Both teams have strong special teams. San Francisco is second in the league in kickoff return average and the Bucs are tied for 3rd. They are very comparable in punt return average, field goal kicking and net punting yards. The difference between the two teams is Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn is third in the NFL in kickoff return average and he is in the top 15 in punt return average. Even though it occurred in the same game, Ginn also has two return touchdowns on the season. Preston Parker is a nice returner, especially on punt returns, but Ginn averages nearly 11 more yards per kickoff return.
3. Stay on the field – Time of possession will be an important factor in this game. The Bucs’ best chance to win the game is to control the football for long stretches of time and wear out the San Francisco defense. As long as the extended drives result in points, the Bucs will be able to steal a win on the road. Based on early results, the Bucs look like the team that is more capable of staying on the field, so this will be a very interesting area of the game to keep an eye on.
Prediction
San Francisco 16 – Tampa Bay 10
Week Five Picks
Here are my picks for week five (home teams in CAPS):
BILLS over Eagles
Chiefs over COLTS
VIKINGS over Cardinals
Titans over STEELERS
Saints over PANTHERS
Bengals over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Raiders
49ERS over Buccaneers
Chargers over BRONCOS
PATRIOTS over Jets
Packers over FALCONS
LIONS over Bears
GIANTS over Seahawks
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 41-23
BILLS over Eagles
Chiefs over COLTS
VIKINGS over Cardinals
Titans over STEELERS
Saints over PANTHERS
Bengals over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Raiders
49ERS over Buccaneers
Chargers over BRONCOS
PATRIOTS over Jets
Packers over FALCONS
LIONS over Bears
GIANTS over Seahawks
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 41-23
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