The crazy 2010 season continues and other NFL thoughts

(1)              The 2010 NFL season just keeps on serving up more and more surprises.  This week’s amazing moment came courtesy of the game-winning, 50-yard touchdown connection between David Garrard and Mike Thomas.  The last gasp touchdown sent the City of Jacksonville into a state of euphoria not felt since the days of Mark Brunell, Natrone Means and Jimmy Smith.  After the shocking victory, the Jaguars find themselves in second place in the AFC South just one game behind the division-leading Indianapolis Colts.  The situation is even better for the Jags because they own the tiebreaker over the Colts thanks to their win over the 800-lb gorillas of the AFC South earlier in the year.  Actually, the win over the Colts also came on the last play of regulation as Josh Scobee booted a 59-yard field goal to send the Jags into a frenzy that was only surpassed by their most recent celebration.  Despite the big win, the Jaguars are the poster children for the parity of the 2010 season.  In their four losses, they have lost two at home and two on the road by an average of nearly 25 points per game.  In fact, the Jags have been outscored for the season by 54 points, which means they have the worst point differential of any team with a 5-4 record or better.  On paper, they are the worst team with a winning record in the league, but still find themselves one game out of first place thanks to an amazing ability to rebound from disastrous outcome after disastrous outcome.  For example, they responded to a home drubbing at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles by beating the Colts at home and the Bills on the road.  More recently, they have won back-to-back games following a 27-point loss in week six and a 22-point loss in week seven.  If they are nothing else, they are resilient. 

I hesitate to predict what the Jaguars are going to do the rest of the season, but I feel like they are going to have a hard time winning consistently because their defense is so horrific.  They are allowing an average of 27.7 points per game, which puts an inordinate amount of pressure on an underwhelming offensive unit.  In the games that they have won, the Jaguars have taken advantage of five teams that are currently ranked 18^th or worse total defense.  Specifically, four of these teams are ranked 24^th or worse against the run and 27^th or worse in scoring defense.  As a result, the Jags have averaged 31.4 points and 167.6 yards rushing in their victories.  In their losses, the story is drastically different.  Jacksonville is averaging less than 10 points and only 92.5 yards rushing when they go down in defeat.  I believe Jacksonville struggles so much against teams with strong run defenses because the pressure of carrying the team proves to be too much for David Garrard.  When opposing defenses don’t have to worry about Maurice Jones-Drew, then they don’t bite on the play-action fakes that are the bread and butter of the Jacksonville passing game.  As a result, defenders are much sounder in their pass coverage, which creates tighter windows for Garrard to connect with his receivers.  I don’t think that Garrard is equipped to make throws into tight windows, which usually leads to more sacks because he holds on to the ball waiting for a receiver to come open or more turnovers when he makes careless throws.  The good news for Jacksonville fans is that their team faces four opponents down the stretch that are currently ranked 15^th or worse in run defense.  If they continue to take advantage of poor run defenses, then Jacksonville has more than a legitimate chance to make the playoffs in the AFC.

(2)              As I have said on many occasions, the NFL has taken its “any given Sunday” reputation to heart this year more than any other.  No team has less than two losses and 19 teams are within one game of first place after 10 weeks.  We have already spoken at length about Jacksonville’s schizophrenia, but they are not alone in the “good one week, bad the next” category.  Two more candidates, who were both in first place by the way, jumped aboard the Gambler’s Nightmare wagon.  First of all, the New York Giants had a golden opportunity to kick the Dallas Cowboys when they were down, but ended up on the losing side of a 13-point beat down.  Heading into this game, the Giants looked to have everything going their way.  They were riding a five-game winning streak and fresh off a 41-7 thrashing of the Seattle Seahawks.  More importantly, they were facing a fractured Dallas club that had just fired its head coach and looked more interested in planning their off-season activities than competing on Sunday.  Nevertheless, the Cowboys played like the hungrier team.  Even though they were out-flanked in nearly every statistical category, Dallas made all of the big plays to win the game including a 71-yard touchdown reception by Felix Jones and a 101-yard interception return for a touchdown by Bryan McCann.  Overall, the Cowboys forced three turnovers and forced the Giants to make mistake after mistake in the red zone.  In a game that featured two power outages, the Cowboys made sure they provided all of the necessary electricity to answer the challenge of playing a first place team on the road.  As for the Giants, this game was eerily reminiscent of the 29-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans in week three.  In both games, the Giants dominated the statistical battle.  In both games, they turned the ball over three times and executed terribly in the red zone (1-4 in red zone opportunities).  As a result, they lost both games handily.  After the Titans debacle, the Giants reeled off five consecutive victories, so it will be interesting to see how they react to their latest setback.

Another team that struggled mightily in front of the home fans was the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They had the opportunity to make a statement, in primetime, against a solid opponent, but they were unable to get anything going on offense until the fourth quarter when they were already trailing 23-3.  Their first eight drives consisted of five punts, one made field goal, one missed field goal and the end of the first half.  During this period, Ben Roethlisberger misfired on 17 out of 27 attempts and was sacked four times.  In fact, Big Ben was under siege from the opening whistle until the end of the third quarter.  The biggest reason for the intense pressure was that the Steelers were breaking in an entirely new offensive line configuration.  The Steelers were without Roethlisberger’s blind-side protectors, left tackle Max Starks and left guard Chris Kemoeatu, which meant that the back-ups were going to be tested by the New England defense and they failed miserably.  In addition to the five total sacks allowed, the Steelers’ new look offensive line couldn’t open up a running lane if their lives depended on it.  Rashard Mendenhall was held to 50 yards rushing one week after Peyton Hillis gashed the Patriots’ 29^th-ranked rushing defense for 184 yards and two touchdowns.  It was an awful performance by the Steelers and a bad omen for the rest of their season because Starks has been lost for the season and the timetable on Kemoeatu’s return is uncertain.  The worst part for Pittsburgh is their vaunted defense did not hold up their end of the bargain.  In fact, the 453 yards they allowed was the worst defensive performance in the 10-year history of Heinz Field.  It also marked the first time this season that Pittsburgh had allowed an opponent to rush for over 100 yards.  I guess it was only fitting that Tom Brady was the guy that orchestrated this woodshed beating since he has dominated the Steelers like no other player before him.  In his career, he has won six of seven overall and four of five in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.  After shredding the Steelers for 350 yards and three touchdowns, Brady now has 14 career touchdown passes and only three interceptions against them.  Thanks to Brady’s brilliance and an outstanding game plan, the Patriots made sure that the first matchup in 25 years of multiple Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks went their way.

(3)               At first, I was slightly confused by the gigantic contract extension that the Washington Redskins handed Donovan McNabb.  In the span of two weeks, McNabb went from being benched due to his cardiovascular health and/or game preparation to being paid a king’s ransom to be the Redskins’ franchise quarterback.  Frankly, I didn’t understand the timing of the extension at all.  At the very least, why wouldn’t the Washington front office wait to see how McNabb reacted to the benching before giving him $40 million in guaranteed money?  For God’s sake, the head coach and the offensive coordinator both called him out following the fourth quarter benching against the Lions, but now they are willing to hitch their wagon to the guy.  Moreover, McNabb entered the Monday night match-up with Philadelphia as the 25^th ranked quarterback in the NFL, so it is not like he has been playing well this season.  In fact, McNabb is in the midst of one of his worst statistical seasons.  He has posted his lowest completion percentage since 2006 and his worst passer rating since his rookie season in 1999.  He has been even more terrible on third down rating 38^th in completion percentage, 32^nd in yards per attempt and 33^rd in passer rating out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks.  His below average numbers have been the result of some ill-advised decisions throwing the football and his inability to make plays with his legs, so tossing copious amounts of guaranteed money his way seemed like the football equivalent of putting cement shoes on the franchise and tossing it into the Potomac River.  Let’s not forget that he turns 34 later this month, which means that he would be approaching 40 years old should he play out the life of the deal.  All in all, it seemed like a questionable move to make this deal so soon after the public falling out between the coaching staff and McNabb.  After the dust has settled a bit, I have a better understanding of the deal and it is starting to look like every other blockbuster NFL deal that looks huge on the surface, but is actually pretty benign underneath the covers.  Players’ agents love to see their names and their clients’ names attached to the big money contracts because the attention feeds their egos.  In reality, most players won’t be around long enough to collect the face value of their contracts.  In McNabb’s case, the contract was announced as a five-year deal worth $70 million, but the Redskins could pay as little as $3.75 million if they cut or trade McNabb after the season.  The Redskins have the ability to cut bait with McNabb with such a low financial commitment because of a $10 million option bonus written into the contract.   After the season, Washington has to decide whether or not they want to pay McNabb the bonus or cut him loose.  If they do pick up the option, it would trigger the rest of the contract and make Washington liable for McNabb’s $2.5 million base salary in 2011.  If they don’t, then McNabb would become an unrestricted free agent at a time when multiple teams will be looking to upgrade their quarterback.  In essence, Washington paid McNabb an extra $3.75 million this year for the right to pay him $12.5 million in 2011 and control his rights.  After digging a little deeper, I actually applaud the Redskins for making this deal.  The timing was awkward, but it shows a commitment to McNabb while at the same time giving the organization an opportunity to evaluate their quarterback position for the rest of the season and providing McNabb a chance to earn the rest of the contract by performing well.