Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The Patriots resurrect successful formula and other NFL thoughts

(1)              Dare I say that the New England Patriots, minus Randy Moss, are the best team in the NFL?  I don’t think we can call them anything else after they improved their league-best record to 6-1 with a victory over the visiting Minnesota Vikings.  With the victory, they have now won 13 consecutive home games against NFC opponents and they are starting to rekindle thoughts of the 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl teams that overwhelmed teams more with their mental toughness than their talent.  The biggest difference between this version of the Patriots and the one that won three Super Bowl titles in four seasons is that this version leads the NFL in rookie starts and has the second most undrafted players on the roster.  As a result, this team was not considered among the elite in the conference at the beginning of the season, especially on defense, and the prognosis got even bleaker following a demoralizing week two loss to the New York Jets.  At best, this season was supposed to be a bridge to 2011 and beyond, when the team’s younger set would have their collective feet underneath them.  Instead, this team has developed a mental outlook that has allowed them to recover from the Jets’ loss to win five games in a row, which included come-from-behind victories over Baltimore and Minnesota. 

     The most surprising part of the Patriots’ season so far is that they are at the top of the NFL heap despite a non-descript group of offensive contributors and a defense that has youth all over the place.  We all know that Tom Brady is a perennial MVP candidate and Wes Welker is an esteemed possession receiver, but they don’t have any other offensive players that put fear into the hearts of defenses, especially following Moss’ departure.  Nevertheless, the Patriots have crafted a top 15 offense by having Brady distribute the football to Welker, Deion Branch and young guys like Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez.  It is no surprise that Brady is thriving in the point guard role and raising the level of his wide receivers by showing confidence in them, but I am a little shocked that the Patriots have kept winning despite the utter lack of a viable deep threat.  Tate provided a glimpse of his potential with a 69-yard touchdown reception, but it came on a broken play and he still has a long way to go to develop into a consistent deep threat.  Nevertheless, the Patriots are going to have to find ways to stretch defenses because I fully expect to a lot of eight-man fronts against them to take away the short passing game and the running game.  New England can also keep defenses on their toes by developing some consistency running the football.  Fortunately, there have been some glimmers of hope in the running game despite the fact that they are without Fred Taylor (injured), Kevin Faulk (injured) and Laurence Maroney (traded to Denver).  They are being led on the ground by the Boston Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has 371 yards rushing after gaining a season high 112 yards on Sunday.  They have supplemented Green-Ellis’ production with change-of-pace running back Danny Woodhead.  With Faulk’s absence, the Patriots desperately needed someone to fill his shoes as an occasional ball carrier and third-down specialist and Woodhead has done an admirable job.  Woodhead had his best day against the Ravens with 115 total yards, but he contributed a rushing touchdown and 45 yards receiving in the win against the Vikings as well.  He has become this year’s version of Julian Edelman.  In other words, a completely off-the-radar guy that replaced a veteran contributor and performed with very little drop-off.  This is the formula that worked so well for New England between 2001-2004 and they have finally found the right group of guys to be successful with the formula again. 

     On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots don’t look great on paper, but they are starting to show signs that they are becoming a solid unit.  The defense has been built much more through the draft, but the talent has taken quite awhile to jell with each other.  They have very few holdovers from the glory days, but it appears that Bill Belichick is finally getting the leadership and toughness that had become so customary in the days of Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrable.  Jerod Mayo leads the defense on and off the field and has become a tackling machine at the middle linebacker position.  The Patriots knew that they had a winner when they drafted Mayo, but injuries and a slow adjustment to the NFL made his transition to stardom much slower than expected.  They hit another home run with the addition of Brandon Spikes, which should solidify their linebacker corps for years to come.  In the secondary, they have a couple of hard-hitting safeties in Brandon Meriweather and Pat Chung and two improving cornerbacks in Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington.  The defense had its best moment in their second half and overtime domination of the Baltimore Ravens, but I believe they have even better moments in front of them.  Ultimately, I think that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL through eight weeks.  Of course, we have all realized that the title of best team is completely transitory and might get reassigned if New England stubs its toe against Cleveland next week.

(2)              Being a head coach in the National Football League has to be one of the most demanding jobs in the world.  Even though they are compensated extremely well, they face pressures that most people never have to face.  They are required to spend copious amounts of hours in the office watching film, game planning and trying to find any edge that will lead to victory on Sunday.  They have to manage egos, both large and small, while at the same time keeping their fingers on the collective pulse of every area of their team and making dozens of decisions each week that could be mean the difference between victory and defeat.  It is easy to see how tough a job it really is and it is easy to see why so many have failed miserably.  Some can’t hack it because they are overwhelmed by the magnitude of the position, which normally manifests itself into poorly prepared teams and terrible in-game decision-making, especially in crunch situations.  Some fail because they lack the necessary management skills that leaders of large, complex organizations need to be successful.  Some dazzle owners and general managers in interview sessions, but quickly demonstrated that they have no business being an NFL head coach.  It is actually amazing how many head coaches fail, especially when you consider the lengths that most teams exhaust to find a new coach. 

     There is no profile of a bad head coach.  They are young and old, inexperienced and veteran, black and white and calm and emotional.  Jim Zorn and Wade Phillips have vastly different experience levels as an NFL head coach, but they are both overwhelmed by the pressure of the job and terrible in-game decision-makers.  Lovie Smith is another coach that makes terrible choices during games, just look at his low percentage of successful challenges if you want further proof.  Jim Mora, Jr. flamed out of the league twice because he couldn’t control his urges; once for publicly pining for the University of Washington job and a second time for publicly flogging his kicker after a close loss to Chicago and telling reporters that he wanted more “dirtbags” on the roster.  On the other hand, Art Shell failed horribly in his second go-around with Oakland primarily because no one could tell if he was dead or alive on the sideline.  He was so calm during games that people wondered if we had a real-life Weekend at Bernie’s situation.  You just never know who will be a good coach. 

     This past weekend, there were a number of situations that highlighted the sometimes precarious nature of head coaching in the NFL.  The first example was the inexplicable benching of Donovan McNabb right at the two-minute warning in the second half of a one score game.  Coach Shanahan attributed his decision to the fact that Rex Grossman had a better handle of the two-minute offense than McNabb.  Shanahan’s reasoning was either the most candid statement ever uttered by an NFL coach or it was an extremely poor choice for an excuse.  Either way, Shanahan looks stupid because he threw his prized free agent quarterback under the bus and McNabb suffered a completely unnecessary public embarrassment.  Later, Shanahan put his foot further into his mouth when he stated that McNabb was not in good shape either.  Apparently, after a series of mini-camps, organized team activities, training camp and eight weeks of the regular season, McNabb is both a slob and poorly prepared.  It is an amazing turn of events in Washington and it surely means that Shanahan has lost a portion of the locker room for the rest of the season.  The second example of bone-headed coaching came courtesy of Rex Ryan, who apparently dressed up like Lovie Smith for Halloween because he blew his two challenges in the first half and was unable to challenge a questionable interception by Charles Woodson in the second half.  In addition, he blew his three second half timeouts prior to the 3:50 mark, which might have meant that he was actually dressed up like Andy Reid.  Let’s not forget that he apparently gave his punter the leeway to call the ill-fated fake punt on fourth and forever from his own 20-yard line.  All of these mistakes led directly to the Jets’ loss and showed that even one of the better head coaches in the NFL can make huge blunders.  The last example of bad coaching has to do with something that has bothered me for a long time.  I absolutely hate when teams are getting blown out and coaches call for a late field goal just to avoid getting shut out.  This situation occurred yet again in the Oakland ritual blood-letting of the Seattle Seahawks.  The Hawks had not done anything all game long, but suddenly found themselves with a fourth down from the Oakland 30-yard line trailing 23-0 midway through the fourth quarter.  Instead of attempting to convert on fourth down, Coach Com-pete Carroll decided to kick a meaningless field goal.  Keep in mind that his kicker had already missed two field goals earlier in the game.  What the hell did Carroll have to lose by rolling the dice and going for it?  Did he really believe that his team was suddenly going to explode for three touchdowns in the last nine minutes of the game to overcome the three score deficit that remained after the field goal?  The only thing that made sense was to convert the fourth down and try to get a touchdown on that drive.  Carroll took the pathetic route and the final score didn’t look any better for kicking the field goal.  Let’s hope that the coaching in week nine is infinitely better than week eight.

(3)              The NFC South is yet again turning into one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL.  They are the only division that boasts three teams with five victories and there are a number of storylines to follow for the rest of the season.  First of all, you have the Atlanta Falcons, who have lost only one home game with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but turn into a different team on the road.  They have an impressive victory in the Superdome, but they got roughed up pretty good when they traveled to the City of Brotherly Love.  On offense, they have all of the components required to be a playoff team and beyond, but their defense still leaves a lot to be desired.  They are the 23rd ranked defense in the NFL, but their 10th ranked scoring defense indicates that they might be bending but they are not breaking on a regular basis.  I believe they have the best chance to win the division, but they need to find more consistency on the road.  It seems obvious to me that they need to recapture their dominant running game when they are away from home, which should put Ryan in manageable down and distance situations.

     The Falcons own a head-to-head victory over New Orleans, but they might have to start looking in the rearview mirror because the Saints look to have turned the corner in their 20-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.  Honestly, it was the Saints’ most complete victory of the season because it came against one of the elite teams from the more dominant AFC.  The Saints are actually playing sounder defensively than a year ago, but their normally tremendous offense has staggered through most of their first eight games.  Drew Brees has equaled the number of interceptions that he threw in all of 2009 and the running game has been a shadow of its former self due to the injuries sustained by Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.  The run game struggled mightily against the Steelers, but Brees had perhaps his finest fourth quarter of the season, which was enough to outlast the Men of Steel.  I still believe that the Saints are the class of the division because they possess the best quarterback and the best defense.  In addition, they seem to be getting healthier with the imminent return of Bush right when their schedule gets fairly soft.

The wild card in the division has to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Baby Bucs have come out of nowhere to be tied for the division lead with a 5-2 record.  The most impressive part of their start is that they have won all three of their games away from the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium.  As a fan of the Seattle Seahawks, I know full well how hard it is to win road games in the NFL.  The Bucs seemed to have mastered the art of winning away from home despite having one of the youngest rosters in the NFL.  They have a second-year quarterback in Josh Freeman that is limiting his mistakes and making plays to help the Bucs win close games.  He played terrible for most of last week’s game against St. Louis, but he maintained his composure down the stretch and led the Buccaneers on a game-winning drive.  He struck again with a seven play, 74 yard drive that ended in a LaGarrette Blount touchdown that provided the winning margin in the victory over Arizona.  In addition to Freeman, the Bucs have a budding star receiver in Mike Williams and a blossoming running game due to the presence of Blount, who has quickly taken over the primary running duties from Cadillac Williams after being picked up from Tennessee.  The Bucs’ major issue is the same as the Falcons: they don’t have a defense that is consistently playing at a high level.  Frankly, the Bucs have the worst defense of the three teams.  I still think that Tampa Bay is at least one year away from truly contending, but they are doing everything in their power to prove me wrong.

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