Week Four Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Aaron Rodgers became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 400 yards, throw for four touchdowns and run for two touchdowns in a single game.

Stat of the week No. 2: Detroit is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in which it trailed by at least 20 points.

Stat of the week No. 3: Vernon Davis now has 21 TD catches since the start of 2009, which is the most among all NFL tight ends.

Stat of the week No. 4: Matt Forte became the third Chicago Bear ever to post a 200-yard rushing game (Gale Sayers & Walter Payton).

Stat of the week No. 5: Drew Brees has at least 20 completions in 24 consecutive games, which is the longest streak in NFL history.

Bonus stat of the week: Jared Cook’s (Titans’ TE) 80-yard TD catch was the longest by a Titan/Oiler in nearly 47 years (Willie Frazier had an 80-yard TD in November of 1964).

The Jets and Ravens struggle to score and other NFL thoughts

(1) I can appreciate a defensive battle just as much as the next guy, but the Sunday night match-up between the Ravens and the Jets was just plain, ugly football. Both defenses can’t help but play well when both offenses can’t get out of their own way. There were a lot of points scored, but it wasn’t anything close to an offensive game. The Ravens and Jets set an NFL record for the most points scored with only one offensive touchdown. The Jets were so bad on offense that its only contribution to the total score was a 40-yard field goal late in the first half. The Jets’ ineptitude could be directly attributed to the poor play of Mark Sanchez, who seemed to get more and more uncomfortable as the night wore on. His poor play has to be setting off alarm bells throughout the organization about whether he is making progress in his third year. Despite the back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, Sanchez is still more of a dink-and-dunk quarterback (6.62 yds/attempt in his career) and a 50-50 proposition on every pass attempted (54.5% completion percentage in his career). On Sunday night, Sanchez looked terrible, even by Pop Warner standards, with four turnovers, a 31.4% completion percentage and a 3.4 yards/attempt average. Fortunately, for Sanchez, Joe Flacco played his own brand of awful football to ensure that the criticism of the quarterbacks would be shared equally. Flacco had his own pair of turnovers to go along with a 32.2% completion percentage and a mediocre 5.3 yards/attempt. The start to the 2011 season for Flacco has been maddening because he has been unable to establish the consistency that he started to show in 2010. He performed brilliantly against the Steelers on opening day and the Rams last week, but he has played atrocious football against the Titans in week two and now against the Jets. He entered the year completed 62% of his attempts during his career, but he is only completing 49.3% of his passes through four games. The Ravens should consider themselves extremely fortunate to be 3-1 despite a very uneven start to the year for their quarterback. Since the quarterbacks struggled so mightily, this game had about as much flow as a clogged sewer pipe. The turnovers certainly contributed to the lack of rhythm, but the inability of either team to regularly convert their third down opportunities killed more drives than Akili Smith. It also didn’t help that both sides couldn’t generate credible running games and the penalty flags were flying around on a regular basis (16 combined penalties). The commissioner should instruct NFL Films to destroy all video evidence of this game because I don’t think it will be immortalized any time soon.

It was a good thing that the defenses and special teams decided to show up and add some excitement because, otherwise, the 70,000 fans in attendance would have fallen asleep like they had been given a pair of Ambien tablets. The lack of offensive fireworks was replaced by two fumble returns for touchdowns, two interception returns for touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. The combined four defensive touchdowns tie an NFL record that has been done many times, most recently in a Chargers-Chiefs game from October 19, 1986. In addition to the scoring smorgasbord, the defenses generally punished the offenses from the first whistle to the last. The game featured 16 quarterback hits, four sacks and seven tackles for loss, as well as a ton of quarterback pressure. The intensity generated by the defenses contributed to the inaccuracy from both quarterbacks. Furthermore, the defenses put the clamps on the opposing running games as well. The Ravens were able to generate 112 yards rushing because they committed to the run in the second half to prevent the fans from the horror of seeing another Joe Flacco pass attempt. Despite the shiny bottom line from Baltimore, the two offenses combined to average 2.5 yards/carry, which is the best indication that neither ground game was very effective. In the end, both defenses can take a great deal of pride in the manner that they discombobulated their opponent. For Baltimore, this defensive effort was about par for the course. For the Jets, this performance demonstrates that they are still capable of being an elite unit after the demoralizing way that they lost in Oakland the week prior. Now they will have to figure out how to get the offense, defense and special units playing well at the same time.

(2) Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers have a two game lead in the NFC West after the first quarter of the 2011 season. Even crazier, the 49ers are a 48-yard Dallas field goal away from being undefeated. San Francisco has not played the toughest schedule in the world, but they have won two road games, in the Eastern time zone, over the last two weeks. Their latest victory has to be their most impressive of the young season. They not only beat the Dream Team from Philly, but they overcame a 20-point second half deficit to do it. This win, more than anything, demonstrates that the 49ers have developed the mental fortitude to win tough games no matter where they are playing. They would not have been able to accomplish this under the last coaching staff, so a lot of credit has to be given to Jim Harbaugh and his coaches. The new regime has enjoyed the early success because they have created an identity in all three phases of the game. On defense, the 49ers are a hard-hitting and opportunistic group. Their two biggest strengths are the ability to stop the run and create turnovers. They are the fourth best run defense in the league, allowing just 74 yards per game, and this has allowed them to make their opponents one-dimensional. I believe this is one of the reasons why the 49ers are currently 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Their opponents have quickly realized that is it fruitless to run the football, so they have resorted to throwing the ball. Through the first four games, the 49ers’ opponents have thrown the ball on 65% of the plays even though every game has been competitive until the end. In addition to their run defense, San Francisco has been extremely successful creating turnovers. They have forced nearly three turnovers per game and they are currently tied with Detroit with a +8 turnover differential. The mistakes by the other teams have provided short fields for the 49ers and have kept their defense fresh.

The San Francisco offense is definitely developing a reputation as one that manages the game and maximizes their scoring opportunities. With Alex Smith at quarterback and zero established playmakers on the outside, the 49ers have to really focus on taking care of the football and taking advantage of their scoring chances. On both accounts, they have been doing a great job under Coach Harbaugh. They have only turned the ball three times on offense, which is one of the lowest numbers in the NFL, and they have averaged 23.5 points per game despite being the 28th ranked unit in the league. The biggest improvement for the 49ers has been the confidence that Coach Harbaugh has instilled in his quarterback. The struggles of Alex Smith have been well-chronicled since he was drafted number one overall, but it looks like he has finally met his dream head coach. The 49ers might have played things a little close to the vest through the first three weeks, but they had their best offensive output against the Eagles in week four. They rolled up 442 yards of total offense, which included 291 yards passing and 164 yards rushing. The most important thing that they showed on Sunday was the ability to create explosive plays as they averaged 7.2 yards per play. It looks like they are starting to hit their stride just as their schedule turns a little tougher over the next several weeks.

The final piece of the puzzle has been the play of the special teams over the first part of the season. The 49ers returned two kicks for touchdowns on opening day and they haven’t looked back since. They are the number two team in the league on kickoff returns and the 14th ranked team on punt returns. The success in the return game has also set-up their offense with very favorable field position. In addition, San Francisco has been very stingy with their coverage teams. They are allowing only 21.3 yards per kickoff return and 8.5 yards per punt return. Finally, their kickers have played excellently as well. David Akers has made 80% of his field goals, which includes two 50+ conversions. Andy Lee has been booming punt after punt, which has resulted in a net average of 46.1 yards. In conclusion, the 49ers have seized control of the weak NFC West and are poised to run away with things. They are building confidence based on their early success, which is great news for their new coaching staff and their long-suffering fan base.

(3) At the quarter pole, the 2011 NFL season has started to take shape. We now have enough of a body of evidence to determine which teams are good, which teams are bad and which are kind of in the middle. For example, the Minnesota Vikings are terrible. They are most likely the worst team in the NFL after they stubbed their toe against one of the other dregs of society, the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers are showing that they will have no hangover from their Super Bowl victory. Since the season has started to take shape, let’s hand out some awards for what we have seen through the first four weeks.

Best Team of the Quarter Season: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The other team is the Detroit Lions, so shouldn’t there be co-honoree for this award? I’m putting the Pack slightly ahead of the Comeback Cats for two reasons: (1) Green Bay gets the benefit of the doubt because they are the defending Super Bowl champs and (2) the Packers haven’t had to overcome 20-point deficits in consecutive weeks to keep their perfect record alive. The Packers have the most explosive offense in the NFL and a defense that is much better than what their current ranking indicates. I also believe that they have a perfect balance of youth and experience on both sides of the football, which should allow them to stay relatively healthy and succeed in close games when the weather turns ugly.

MVP of the Quarter Season: Aaron Rodgers
A lot of the early headlines have belonged to Tom Brady, but Rodgers has quietly elevated his game to the point that he belongs on the Mount Rushmore of active quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He is on pace to increase his completion percentage by six points, throw 20 touchdowns more and throw 1,400 yards more than his numbers from last season. In addition, Rodgers can make opposing teams pay with his running ability, which is something that Brady, Manning, Brees and many others are unable to do.

Rookie of the Quarter Season: Cam Newton
Is there even an argument? Newton has completely redefined what we should expect from a rookie quarterback. He is on pace to throw for over 5,500 yards, throw for 20 TDs, complete nearly 60% of his attempts and average 8.5 yards/attempt.

Coach of the Quarter Season: Jim Schwartz
Schwartz has led the Lions to a 4-0 start. Do I need to provide any other evidence? Even more incredible, the Lions are essentially working on a 12-game winning streak (4-0 to end last season, 4-0 in the preseason, and 4-0 to start 2011). These are the same Detroit Lions that were 9-47 from the middle of 2007 through the end of the 2010 season.

Commish's Game of the Week: Detroit at Dallas

Preview
The game between the Detroit and Dallas is one of the marquee match-ups in week four of the NFL season. These two teams might be worlds apart when it comes to the success they have had as a franchise, but they look like carbon copies this season on the field. First of all, both teams bring top-notch passing attacks to the table led by two quarterbacks that love to throw the ball all over the field. Both teams are in the top five in passing yards per game and the top 10 in yards/attempt, which means they are not only throwing the ball a lot, but they are also throwing the ball with great effect. Secondly, both teams have struggled mightily to run the football despite having young, dynamic running backs and a passing game that should seemingly open up the running lanes. They are both averaging around three yards per carry and 78 yards/game, which puts them among the five or six worst running teams in the NFL. The final similarity takes us to the defensive side of things, where both teams are getting after the quarterback on a regular basis. The Cowboys lead the league with 13 sacks after three games and the Lions are 11th in the league with eight sacks. It is no surprise that they are harassing the quarterback position because they both have elite pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware and Ndamukong Suh. In addition, they both have unheralded guys like Cliff Avril and Anthony Spencer that have been getting the job done in the shadows for the last couple of years.

The big differences between the Lions and Cowboys are found on defense and the turnover differential. The two defenses look a little like polar opposites when you put aside their ability to apply pressure in the pocket. First of all, the Lions look much stingier against the pass after the first few weeks. Detroit is fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and third in the league in passing yards per attempt. The numbers sure look great, but Detroit hasn’t exactly faced the quarterback elite during the first three weeks. The challenge of slowing down Tony Romo, even with the absence of Miles Austin and the thigh injury slowing down Dez Bryant, is going to be slightly more difficult than stopping Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel and the quarterback formerly known as Donovan McNabb. Conversely, the Cowboys have been a little vulnerable as a pass defense. They are currently in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed and yards/attempt, which is disconcerting when you consider that they have faced Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith and Rex Grossman in the first three weeks. Secondly, the Cowboys have been much stouter against the run, allowing just 61 yards per game, while the Lions have allowed 113 yards per game. The Cowboys’ run defense looks for real because they have stymied three teams that appear to have a run-first mentality. Finally, these teams have been very different when it comes to taking care of the ball and taking the ball away from their opponent. The Lions currently lead the NFL with a +6 turnover differential, while the Cowboys have had a bad start to the season with a -2 differential. There can be a certain element of luck with causing turnovers, but a positive turnover ratio can indicate an aggressive defense and an offense that values the football.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Protect the quarterback – Both of these teams have elite pass rushers that can cause havoc in the passing game. The Cowboys lead the league in sacks behind the talents of Ware and Spencer, while the Lions have applied their fair share of pressure, despite the prolonged absence of their number one pick, Nick Fairley. The team that keeps their quarterback the cleanest will be in a great position to win the football game. In my opinion, the advantage goes to Detroit because their key offensive weapons are healthy and they have much more experience on the offensive line.

2. Run the football effectively – As I stated earlier, neither team has been successful running the football this year. In this game, both teams need to find some room on the ground in order to slow the opposing pass rush and take some of the pressure off their respective quarterbacks. The advantage goes to Dallas because I think they have the better running back and they get to attack the Lions’ vulnerable run defense.

3. Take full advantage of red zone opportunities – Despite having similar offensive profiles, the Lions have scored about 10 more points per game than the Cowboys. One of the reasons for the difference is that Dallas has had injuries to all of their key playmakers. The other reason is that Detroit has been more successful scoring touchdowns in the red zone. On the season, the Lions have scored seven points on eight of 13 opportunities. On the other hand, the Cowboys have scored touchdowns on just three out of 10 opportunities. I give the advantage to the Lions because they have one of the best red zone targets in Calvin Johnson and a developing weapon in Brandon Pettigrew.

Prediction
Detroit 27 – Dallas 21

Week Four Picks

Here are my picks for week four (home teams in CAPS):

BEARS over Panthers
Bills over BENGALS
BROWNS over Titans
Lions over COWBOYS
Vikings over CHIEFS
RAMS over Redskins
EAGLES over 49ers
Saints over JAGUARS
TEXANS over Steelers
Giants over CARDINALS
PACKERS over Broncos
RAIDERS over Patriots
CHARGERS over Dolphins
RAVENS over Jets
BUCCANEERS over Colts
SEAHAWKS over Falcons

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 32-16

Week Three Stats of the Week

Stat of the week No. 1: Buffalo is the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games in which it trailed by at least 18 points.

Stat of the week No. 2: There have been 33 individual 300-yard passing games this season, which is the most through the first three weeks in NFL history.

Stat of the week No. 3: Calvin Johnson is the first player in history to have at least two TD catches in each of his team’s first three games.

Stat of the week No. 4: Drew Brees is the fourth player in NFL history to throw TD pass in 30 consecutive games (Unitas – 47 games, Favre – 36 games, Marino – 30 games).

Stat of the week No. 5: In the past two weeks, Minnesota has been ahead at halftime by a combined score of 37-0 and lost both games.

Bonus stat of the week: The San Francisco 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since November 2009.

Texans are still pretenders and other NFL thoughts

(1)              It is commonly said that the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I would like to add another item: declaring the Houston Texans as serious contenders in the NFL.  For at least the last three or four years, the media has been obsessed with predicting that the Texans were ready to make their first playoff appearance and/or challenge the elite in the AFC South.  Although they have shown glimpses of promise, the Texans have finished outside of the postseason in every year of their existence.  This year, the door to the playoffs was kicked off the hinges thanks to the neck injury suffered by Peyton Manning, which forced the Indianapolis Colts to bring the ancient Kerry Collins out of retirement.  With the biggest difference-maker in the division on the shelf, the experts were convinced that there was no way that Houston wouldn’t win the AFC South.  The Texans still had a dynamic offense led by Matt Schaub and Arian Foster and they had addressed their biggest problem of 2010 by hiring Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator and signing Jonathan Joseph to a free-agent contract.  The changes paid dividends early as they crushed the Colts on opening day and handled the Dolphins in week two.  After two weeks, the Texans were actually the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL!  My computer nearly shut itself down after I finished typing that sentence.  Even more impressive, Houston had won both games with nearly no contribution from their All-Pro running back.  The stars seemed to be finally aligning for the City of Houston to have a playoff team for the first time since Warren Moon’s last season in 1993.

I’m still confident that the Texans are going to win their first division title, but my vote of confidence is more about the relative weakness of their competition.  They have a retiree playing quarterback for one of their opponents and a rookie playing for another.  Their stiffest divisional opponent is probably the Titans, but they just lost their best receiver to a season-ending knee injury and their quarterback is one big hit away from the infirmary.  If the Texans can’t win this sad-sack division, then they might as well fold up the tents permanently on professional football in Houston.  A non-division title this year would be more embarrassing than giving up a 32-point third quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills back in 1992.  Unfortunately, I think that the Texans will have reached their ceiling if they do manage to earn a division title.  I still don’t believe that this team has the necessary chops to win a playoff game.  In order for me to change my mind, they need to win a big game or two, especially on the road.  I will give them credit for their huge season-opening win over the Colts last season, but they went into the tank for the rest of the year.  This year, they beat the Colts again, but with a guy, whose daily schedule a month ago consisted of 18 holes of golf and the early bird special, playing quarterback.  They also beat the Dolphins, but their quarterback is a back-up masquerading as a starter.  The Texans’ first real test of the 2011 season was playing the New Orleans Saints on the road.  In my opinion, they failed the test miserably.  Houston led the Saints 26-17 with 14:54 remaining in the fourth quarter and desperately needed to close the door on New Orleans to show that they were ready to make the next step.  Unfortunately, the Saints, led by Drew Brees, blitzed the Texans 23-7 down the stretch and pulled out the hard-fought victory.  I know that Brees is an elite quarterback in the NFL, but good teams don’t allow their opponents to score on three consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter on drives that lasted less than two minutes each.  Good teams find ways to grind out first downs in the fourth quarter instead of putting their gassed defense back on the field.  I don’t think that the Texans are a good team.  They are good enough to win a division title, but so were the Seattle Seahawks last year and no one thought they were a quality team.  The Texans have a brutal four-game stretch upcoming that gives them an opportunity to start changing the perception that people have about them.

(2)  The Oakland Raiders are starting to look like a team that could surprise some folks in the AFC.  They are a whisker away from being the only undefeated team in the conference and they seem to be developing a personality that harkens back to the glory days of the franchise.  Obviously, the biggest stain on their 2011 resume is blowing a 21-3 halftime lead against the Buffalo Bills in week two.  Their second half meltdown speaks to one of my principal concerns about the Raiders: their defense.  They allowed the Bills to score 35 points in the second half and allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense including 223 yards on the ground.  Actually, Buffalo never had to send their punting unit onto the field in the second half.  They scored touchdowns on five straight possessions and each of scoring drives was in excess of 55 yards, including three 80-yard drives.  This was a Chernobyl-style implosion by a defense that many observers believed would be much improved, especially across the defensive line.  They followed up the devastating loss to the Bills by allowing nearly 450 total yards against the Jets, but I observed two key differences that I thought were positive signs for Oakland.  First of all, they played the run much better against the Jets.  It is common knowledge that New York wants to play smash-mouth football, but the Raiders were not willing to go along with the plan.  They allowed just 100 yards on 25 carries and forced a fumble from Shonn Greene.  Secondly, I thought that the Raiders brought a controlled fury that knocked around the Jets pretty good.  Their physical play put a hurting on Mark Sanchez and guaranteed that he wouldn’t be enjoying a foot long in the fourth quarter.  Sanchez threw for 369 yards, but I believe your chances for victory against the Jets increase when he is asked to carry the load.  The Raiders are far from a perfect defense, but they are able to mask some of their deficiencies when they play with the ferocious, hard-hitting style that we saw on Sunday.

I like the Raiders even more because of what I’m seeing from their offense.  First of all, they are establishing a reputation for running the ball down their opponents’ throats.  Darren McFadden referred to the progression of their ground game as “building a bully.”  They want to play offense like they are the biggest, baddest guys on the block.  The first three weeks of the season have shown that they are doing a pretty good job of implementing their vision.  Through the first three games, Oakland is leading the NFL in rushing and they produced the most rushing yards ever against a Rex Ryan-led Jets team.  I believe they have the makings of a running game similar to the Earth, Wind & Fire group from the New York Giants a few years ago.  Right now, they are led by the dynamic play-making ability of McFadden, who I believe is developing into the most complete running back in the NFL.  He may not be more talented than Adrian Peterson as a pure runner, but his ability to catch the football and pass block makes him a unique package.  In addition, they have the bruising running style of Michael Bush to use in short-yardage situations or when the defense has tired of chasing after McFadden.  Finally, they have the ability to throw a change-up at the defense with Taiwan Jones’ blazing speed.  Once Jones gains a little more experience, I think that the Raiders are going to be nearly unstoppable running the football.  Also, I like that Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing the offense.  He knows that the Raiders don’t have a lot of experience on the outside, so he’s taking what the defense gives him and allowing the Raiders to rely heavily on their running game.  Campbell only threw for 156 yards, but Oakland still scored 34 points and beat a very good conference opponent.  In reality, Campbell has had two very mediocre games in his three starts, but the Raiders have won them both.  If Oakland can continue to follow their offensive recipe and they get a marginal improvement from their defense, then they are going to give the Chargers a run for their money in the AFC West.

(3) The Philadelphia Eagles are locked in a high risk/high reward situation with Michael Vick.  The high risk comes with giving the guy a $100 million contract after he blew every single opportunity that his last $100 million contract afforded him.  The Eagles are obviously hoping and praying that Vick has grown up since his titanic failure to live up to all the expectations in Atlanta, but we can’t ignore the fact that he was released from prison about 2.5 years because his personal life was completely out of control.  The dogfighting conviction and the prison stint would be big enough issues on their own, but Vick adds an additional layer of extreme risk due to the fragility that he has exhibited in his career.  He has played the full 16-game slate just once in his career and he missed four games just last season.  If Vick cannot keep his nose clean off the field or his body healthy on the field, then the Eagles’ investment is going to go up in smoke Bernie Madoff-style. 

The Eagles are willing to take the risk because they have seen the rewards that Vick’s talent can generate on the field.  They saw him eviscerate the Jacksonville Jaguars in week three last year.  They saw his pantheon game against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night football.  They saw him flip the switch in the second half in a dominating performance against the New York Giants.  Despite missing the four games, Vick was still able to lead the Eagles to a division title and a home playoff game.  He couldn’t deliver in the playoffs, but he once again demonstrated a peerless level of play-making, which convinced the Eagles to trade away Kevin Kolb in the offseason and push all their chips to the center of the table for Vick.  After the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia has received an uneven return on their investment, which is probably putting it mildly.  In week one, he lead the team to a victory on the road, but he looked very much like the Atlanta version of Mike Vick.  He was erratic throwing the football, but he used his legs to counter-balance his inaccurate passing.  Following the shaky debut, Vick has been knocked out of the last two games with injuries.  The ironic part is that both injuries occurred while he stood in the pocket, which wasn’t the location that everyone thought he would be hurt.  The popular thought was that Vick was sure to be injured as he ran recklessly through the opponent’s secondary on one of his trademark scrambles.  The bottom line is that Vick will continue to be injury-prone due to his style of play and his slight frame.  If the Eagles want to protect their investment, then they need to spend more time on improving their offensive line rather than complaining about the amount of times that Vick gets hit by opposing defenses.  While it may be true that Vick doesn’t get protected like other quarterbacks, it is counterproductive to publicly critique the same people that you are expecting to provide protection.  The biggest mistake that the Eagles made was not handing the huge contract to Vick, it was making wholesale changes on the offensive line even though their prized quarterback has a history of injuries.  All the talk around their splashy free agent moves glossed over the biggest risk they took going into the season: new faces at four of the five offensive line positions.

Week Three Picks

Here are my picks for week three (home teams in CAPS):

Patriots over BILLS
BENGALS over 49ers
BROWNS over Dolphins
TITANS over Broncos
Lions over VIKINGS
SAINTS over Texans
EAGLES over Giants
PANTHERS over Jaguars
Jets over RAIDERS
Ravens over RAMS
CHARGERS over Chiefs
Packers over BEARS
Falcons over BUCCANEERS
Steelers over COLTS
Redskins over COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS over Cardinals

Last Week: 14-2
Overall: 23-9