Three Facts
1. The CLink
is 49er kryptonite.
Century Link
Field has quickly become a house of horrors for the San Francisco 49ers. In their last two visits to Seattle, the
49ers have been completely dominated by the home team. The biggest reason for the dominance is that
the Seahawks have been able to make Colin Kaepernick look like an ordinary
player instead of the transcendent talent that everyone wants to make him out
to be. Kaepernick has posted a QB rating
of 47.1 and turned the ball over five times in Century Link. He was so flummoxed Sunday night by the
Seattle defense that his only recourse was to use his game-changing running
ability or force the ball into tight coverage.
The end result was that Seattle intercepted three passes and prevented
Kaepernick from completing a 15-plus yard pass for the first time in 12 career
starts. Conversely, Kaepernick had eight
such completions in Week One versus the Green Bay Packers. Another key to Seattle’s recent domination is
that they have rendered Frank Gore and the vaunted 49ers running game to
irrelevance. Gore has averaged less than
three yards per carry in the last two Seattle road games. Based on their performance against San
Francisco, the Seahawks have served notice to the entire NFC that they don’t
want to see Seattle earn home field advantage through the playoffs.
2. The Hawks
defense is a completely different animal at home.
On Sunday
night, the defense was in a zone against San Francisco. They made the electric 49ers offense look
like Jacksonville Jaguars. The same
49ers offense that had been averaging nearly 30 points in Kaepernick’s 12
starts could only muster a measly three points against the most amped up
defense of the Pete Carroll era. Outside
of the field goal drive, the 49ers made only one other serious scoring threat,
which ended on a spectacular deflection by Walter Thurmond that turned into an
interception. It is no surprise that
Seattle played lights out on defense when you consider the opponent and, more
importantly, the location. During
Carroll’s tenure as head coach, the Hawks have played defense much more
effectively at Qwest/Century Link than on the road. They have allowed fewer yards, caused more
turnovers, and been stingier on third down when they have slept in their own
beds. Surprisingly, one of the areas
that they have actually done better on the road is sacking the
quarterback. The common misperception is
that Seattle uses the raucous 12th man crowd to get after the
quarterback, but they have 10 more sacks on the road in Carroll’s three-plus
years with the team.
3. The CLink
is the best home field advantage going right now in the NFL.
Is there any
stadium more intimidating for opposing teams than the CLink? The much talked about 12th Man
lived up to its reputation on Sunday night by showing up in record numbers and
setting a Guinness World Record for the loudest sports crowd in the
process. The noise can be so disruptive
that the 49ers eschewed verbal play calls for the use of hand signals and
silent counts. The din certainly helped
the Seahawks defense get off the ball quicker and contributed to a general lack
of precision by the San Francisco offense, including one possession that
included delay of game and false start penalties. After destroying the 49ers, the Hawks haven’t
lost at home since December 24, 2011.
With their toughest home game out of the way, it will be an extreme
disappointment if Seattle doesn’t post a second consecutive 8-0 campaign at
Century Link. If this happens, and if
the Hawks can survive a brutal road schedule with a 5-3 record, Seattle will
own home field advantage in the NFC, which is a nightmare that the rest of the
conference does not want to see come to fruition.
Three Questions
1. Should we
be concerned with the Seahawks’ offensive inefficiency?
Although the
Seahawks have won their first two games, they have not been the models of
offensive efficiency. Two big indicators
of efficiency are a team's red zone conversion rate and third down conversion
rate. Show me a team that scores a high
percentage of touchdowns in the red zone and keeps drives alive with third down
conversions and I will show you a successful team. The Seahawks are not performing at a high
level in either area. They definitely
showed improvement in the red zone on Sunday night, but their third down
conversion rate has them in the middle of the pack. In the last half of the 2012 season, the
Hawks were deadly in the scoring zone and very efficient on third down, which
is a formula that they have yet to discover in the early stages of 2013. If Seattle continues to struggle in both
areas against the lowly Jaguars in week three, then this question mark is going
to quickly move into the worry category.
2. How will
Russell Okung’s injury impact the offense?
The loss of
the Pro Bowl left tackle is sure to have an impact on the Seattle offense. While it is unclear how long Okung is going
to be out of the line-up, it has already been announced that he will not play
this weekend against Jacksonville.
Long-term, the impact to the Seahawks should even out as his replacement
gets more reps playing the demanding left tackle position. However, in the short-term, it is instructive
to compare how the Seahawks have performed with and without Okung over his
three-plus season career. Okung has
missed 11 games in his career and the Hawks have averaged less rushing yards
and fewer yards per carry in those games.
This type of impact is unlikely to occur against the Jaguars, but it would
not be surprising to see Seattle struggle in the running game if Okung misses
upcoming games against Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee.
3. How good
will the defense be when it gets 100% healthy?
The Seahawks
have the number two overall defense and the number one scoring defense after
two weeks of the 2013 season. They have
played extremely well despite having Cliff Avril for only one game and not
having the services of Bruce Irvin, Jordan Hill, Chris Clemons and Brandon
Browner for either game. It is a scary
proposition to think how awesome this defense can be when it has all of its top
players available to play. Could we be
witnessing the nascent moments of a dominating defense similar to the 2000
Baltimore Ravens? The key for this
defense to reach its potential is to play defense more consistently away from
Seattle.
Three Worries
1. The
penalty situation is the elephant in the room.
The Seahawks
are the third most penalized team in the NFL after two weeks. They have been able to overcome the extreme
amount of penalties so far, but it has been killing their offensive continuity
and, sooner or later, it is going to cost them a football game. At some point, the coaching staff is going to
have to find a solution to the problem.
On the positive side, the Hawks showed a lot of maturity by not getting
baited into a slew of personal foul penalties during a very physical game on
Sunday. Unfortunately, there were far
too many holding and procedure penalties.
2. The
Seahawks pass protection is not Super Bowl caliber.
Russell
Wilson ran for his life against the Carolina Panthers and the pass protection
didn't improve very much against San Francisco.
It is bad enough that the Hawks are on a 48 sack pace for the season,
but there franchise quarterback might not even make it to the end of the year
if things don't improve. The biggest
worry is how many more sacks and quarterback hits will Wilson be exposed to in
Russell Okung's absence.
3. The
Seahawks need more productivity from the tight end position.
Two games
into the season and the Seattle tight ends have made little to no
contribution. Luke Willson is still
waiting to make his first NFL reception and Zach Miller has only five receptions
and 64 yards after two weeks. With the
lack of protection for Russell Wilson, he needs his tight ends more than
ever. The challenge for Darrell Bevell
and the rest of the offensive coaching staff is to figure out some schemes that
will put Miller and/or Willson in a position to make a bigger contribution.
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