Most of the media attention for this week’s Thursday Night match-up between the Eagles and the Chiefs has been centered on Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia to face his former team and his wunderkind replacement. While this angle will no doubt get the national pundits frothy at the mouth, I prefer to focus my analysis on the two teams, who will actually be battling each other on the field. On one side, we have the 1-1 Eagles, who have been the talk of the NFL due to their supposedly hyper speed offense and the mystery of what Chip Kelly still has in his bag of tricks for the rest of the league. They reeled off an incredible 53 plays in the first half of their opening game, thanks largely to the ineptitude of their opponent, but have seemed more than a few notches below revolutionary since. On the other side, you have the 2-0 Chiefs, who were the league’s worst team a year ago, but were a trendy pick to at least go from worst to a Wild Card spot in the span of one calendar year. In my opinion, these teams are about as diametrically opposed as any two teams in the NFL. The Eagles have shown that they possess a high performance offense, but their defense has been a disaster ever since their extremely successful first half against Washington. The Chiefs’ offense has been much more mundane led by the grand poobah of game management, Alex Smith, but their defense has shown signs that they could be one of the better units in the league. My belief is that Kansas City will impose their style of play on this game, which will have two major impacts: (1) limiting the offensive possessions for the Eagles and (2) keeping Philly’s suspect defense on the field as much as possible. Here are three reasons why I think the Chiefs will emerge victorious on Thursday night.
The Philadelphia defense is bad, really bad.
The Eagles defense looked like a cross between the ’85 Bears and ’00 Ravens during the first half of their game against Washington. They limited the RGIII-led offense to less than 70 yards of total offense, caused two turnovers, forced three punts, and even had a safety. Their domination fueled the amount of offensive plays they ran in the first half and set them up with a 26-7 lead as they headed into the locker room. Since emerging for the second half at FedEx Field, the Philly defense has lived up to all of the low expectations that people had for it before the season started. In the subsequent six quarters, they have allowed nearly 700 yards passing, five touchdowns, 8.1 yards per attempt, and a 72% completion percentage. It is unlikely that the conservative Chiefs passing game, which is currently 27th ranked in the NFL, will be able to exploit the Philly secondary like their previous opponents, but they don’t need to be the second coming of Air Coryell to beat the Eagles. They will win because they will be able to keep drives alive by being efficient on third down and methodically slice and dice the horrible Philly defense. As a result, the Chiefs will own the time of possession category and will push Philly past its breaking point in the second half.
The Chiefs will not beat themselves.
As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles beat the Redskins because the Skins turned the ball essentially three times in the first half and couldn’t sustain any drive until the middle of the third quarter. The Chiefs will not be so accommodating. Kansas City is one of two teams in the league that has not turned the ball over so far. If they continue to protect the football, they will keep Philly’s explosive offense off the field and give themselves more chances to exploit the vulnerable Eagles defense. With Alex Smith at the helm, I believe that KC has the perfect quarterback to limit its mistakes. In addition to not giving the football away, the Chiefs will be able to build on the clinically efficient game plan that the San Diego Chargers employed against Philadelphia. The Bolts possessed the football over two-thirds of the game because the Eagles defense could not get them off the field on third down. San Diego converted 10 out of 15 third down opportunities, which is something that I’m sure the Chiefs have focused on in their game film review and game planning. Finally, the Chiefs will continue to do a good job of limiting the number and impact of penalties. This will keep them ahead of the chains and present manageable down and distance situations for Alex Smith and offense. Without Kansas City’s help, the Eagles will not be able to run the number of plays that they would like to run.
Philly will struggle against the Chiefs defense.
It is not a secret that Chip Kelly wants to run the football first and foremost. In his six seasons at Oregon, Kelly’s offense never finished worse than 6th in the nation in rushing, while never finishing better than 48th in passing. His U of O offenses were lauded for their scheme, speed, and scoring prowess, which was all fueled by an elite rushing attack. Make no mistake, Kelly wants to implement the same kind of offense in the NFL. The Eagles week one victory over Washington is the blueprint for the ideal game result for Kelly: efficient quarterback play and a dominating run game (49 carries for 263 yards). The Eagles played very differently in week two with Michael Vick throwing for over 400 yards and the offense only producing 100 yards on the ground. The common denominator is that Vick got hit a lot in both games. Kelly does not like to use a lot of additional protection schemes beyond his five offensive linemen, which leads to a lot of big plays but might also get Vick killed in the process. The Chiefs will slow down the Eagles by shutting down the run early and making Vick pay when he drops back to pass. In two games, the Chiefs have sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times and have only allowed an average of 54 yards rushing. The Eagles are too good on offense to be completely shut down, but they will be frustrated by a Kansas City defense that has clearly started the 2013 season on a hot streak.
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